Over/Under

This in response to the over/under betting lines for each team’s wins in the 2008 MLB season being announced. I think this may be the general set-up for this kind of thing: a short section for quick reference and a long section for expansion.

Short: (In order of confidence) SEA – Under, BAL – Over, (small gap) OAK – Over, STL – Under, (small gap) MIL – Over, DET – Under, PHI – Under, FLA – Over, LAA – Under.

Luck does play a huge role though.

I’d put the over/under on how long I keep up with this blog at about 2 months.

Long:

Predicted wins were determined as follows:

(1) Take the teams AB,OBP, and SLG from ’07, as well as ERA

(2) Make minor adjustments to OBP and SLG based on; player additions/subtractions, (un)lucky batting averages, new parks, aging, injury, etc. (it was off the top of my head – ex. CHC went from .333 / .422 to .338 / .421 since they added OBP with their new RF and C (and maybe 2B), but lost some power in center (made up a little by the added power at C)

(3) Similar adjustments made for ERA (ex. MIL went from 4.41 to 4.35 based on less bad luck for Bush/Capuano, more innings from Gallardo, and a slightly improved bullpen)

(4) Approximated Runs Scored via AB * OBP * SLG and then dampened it a touch as it tends to overestimate (about 2% over for 2007) and Runs Allowed via ERA (with a earned to unearned adjustment)

(5) Found MY expected record with the Pythagorean formula (win% ~= RS ^ 1.83 / ( RS ^ 1.83 + RA ^1.83))

(6) Used the Baseball Prospectus projections for next year (they’re pretty much the best at is) for the teams RS and RA

(7) Averaged my RS/RA with BP’s RS/RA and found the predicted wins that I list.

(8) BP actually runs simulated season for the projections they have for each player to come up with their projected standings. I generally agree with their W/L numbers but I’m higher on the O’s (they’ve been pessimistic on various O’s players before and turned out wrong – on Markakis especially) Braves, Rockies, Royals, Phillies, Padres and Mariners than they are, and lower on the White Sox, Marlins, Angels, Mets, and Rays. They correctly predicted the DBacks winning the NL West last year, as well as the White Sox collapse, which nobody else saw coming. I didn’t suggest betting in any situation in which we disagreed on the O/U expect Atlanta . They have them at 85 and I have them at 88, though it comes out to 88 via RS/RA averages.

As always, happy to give input on any team/player/etc.

Team O/U Pred. Wins Pick Comment

ARI 87.5 86 U I wouldn’t feel great about betting here as young talent has a larger variance. They outperformed their expected W/L record based on Runs Scored/Allowed last year by 11, so 87 wins would still be an 8 game improvement in talent. The top two SP should be great and if the Big Unit can come back strong they’ll have a great rotation. SP Micah Owings could probably bat in the middle of the Giants’ order.

ATL 85.5 88 O I like the Braves. I think Renteria’s good year was balanced out by Jones’ bad one and a full year from Teixeira plus small improvements from McCann and Francoeur make them better. Should have won 88 last year. Not a slam-dunk, but solid if you were leaning this way anyway. I don’t know how Smoltz is still doing it, but that guy has a wicked slider.

BAL 66 72 O It’s only this low because of the division. A quietly solid line-up (except for SS) with average OBP scores some runs. Pitching can’t be worse then last year, and there are enough arms to go with the ones that are succeeding. It would take some serious bad luck for the team to lose 100 games. I personally think 75 would be reasonable.

BOS 94.5 94 U I wouldn’t pick here. The main contributors on offense are getting up there in years, but they can still hit, and the pitching should be very good. Buccholz is pretty much as good as he showed in that no-hitter vs. the O’s. Jonathon Papelbon’s fastball is one of the best in baseball, to lefties as well as righties.

CHC 87.5 89 O I’m fairly confident in this one, as the Cubs have a good team. A trade for Roberts would pretty much seal it for me. Zambrano’s declining control is worrisome, but Rich Hill has a big-time curveball and Marmol has some of the best late-inning stuff in baseball. Soto should provide a major upgrade at catcher, and if Pie can add some offense to his defense the line-up will be very good. I just hope Sweet Lou keeps Ryan Theriot as a bench player. He’s turning into the new David Eckstein (more on that later).

CHW 77.5 75 U I really don’t like the White Sox. I think the pitching isn’t good, and the main offense (minus Swisher, who may hit 40 in that park) is getting older. Plus their manager is one of the worst in baseball (“Let’s play Owens over Quentin because Owens is fast and will hit as well as he did last year hopefully. Quentin will just get on base more and might actually play really well if we give him a chance – Let’s bunt a lot. It doesn’t matter that we only score with homeruns”). I wouldn’t bet on this though – if Thome, Konerko, and Dye each have the years they can then they’ll score a good number of runs.

CIN 78.5 77 U Speaking of bad managers – Dusty Baker… wow. (“I don’t want people getting on base (via walk / if they aren’t fast); then they just stand out there clogging up the bases for the next hitter.” Seriously. That’s pretty much in every interview he gives. If he hadn’t had Bonds on his team he would probably not have gotten another job after the Giants.) If Baker plays the young guys this team could challenge for the division. I don’t think he will, so I don’t think they’ll be that good. Wouldn’t bet on it, though. The Jay Bruce / Joey Votto hitting combination / comedy team should be fun to watch for the next 10-15 years.

CLE 90.5 90 U They weren’t as good as their record last year, and Hafner’s down year worries me. The walks were still there but the power was down (not just HR, doubles too) and he wasn’t injured. Still, I think they’re the best team in the division, they have one of the best front offices, and they have some pitchers ready to step in if need be (Carmona’s workload is worrisome). Could win 96 again. No bet.

COL 83.5 83 U Definitely no bet. They were as good as their record last year, but I have to think the pitching will regress a bit – especially with the younger guys getting a larger workload. If Holliday goes down then their offense just won’t be that scary anymore. It was nice to see Larry Walker admit the he isn’t a Hall of Famer. He isn’t, but he still has about as good of a case as Jim Rice.

DET 94.5 89 U They’re a good team. Very good even. But I still think they’re a step below the Indians. Getting Cabrera helps the offense, but not by as much as you’d think, as Granderson, Ordonez, and Polonco should all be downgraded a tad from last year. Pudge never walked before and is getting worse with age. Sheffield might be pretty close to done. The bullpen is kind of a mess, especially if Rodney goes down, and I’m not buying too much into the starting pitching behind Verlander and Bonderman. I don’t think they’re 7 games better than last year.

FLA 68.5 73 O They lost Cabrera and Willis, but the still have Hanley Ramirez, who was one of the best offensive players in baseball last year (led the NL in Value Over Replacement Player). They got a bit unlucky last year, and I don’t think the team is that much worse (at all, even). They’re in a similar situation as the O’s – lost quality hitter and pitcher, but extra depth and non-down years from players improves their record. Better pitching is the key. Not the safest bet, as they could collapse - especially if H-Ram’s shoulder affects him – but they’re not that bad.

HOU 74.5 73 U Not a good team. Offense is there with Berkman, Lee, Pence, and Tejada but there’s no pitching after Oswalt and maybe Wandy Rodriguez. Michael Bourn may steal 50 bases though. 75 wins wouldn’t be at all surprising so it’s a tough bet to make. Also, the park actually has slightly favored pitchers recently, not hitters.

KCR 72.5 72 U No bet. They definitely might be better than this. I like where the team is going (though signing Guillen for that much was a stretch). Billy Butler is a great hitter, Gordon should be better, and if the give Esteban German a chance he could produce. Plus, Brian Bannister is one of the smarter pitchers around and Zach Greinke has got some wicked stuff. 50 mph curve after a fastball at 97 is really unfair. Plus they were 5 games worse than they should have been last year.

LAA 92.5 89 U The outfield is a mess. They have 5 players for 3 spots, and no one wants to DH. If Escobar doesn’t pitch well after injury it will hurt, but they have some good starting pitching. John Lackey is very underrated. I like 89 wins better for 2009 than 2008 (major deals not withstanding) but it’s not a terrible bet. They won 4 games more than expected in ’07.

LAD 87 86 U I like this team a lot. Like Cin., if they let the best players play they would be much better. Pierre should be a fourth outfielder, no question, and not letting LaRoche play third is kind of crazy. Definitely no bet.

MIL 84 87 O I picked the BrewCrew to win the central last year and they were so close. Ryan Braun is one of my favorite new players and that offense is going to be good (even with some OBP and SO problems). Picking up Cameron improved the defense in two places. The manager has talked about batting Braun 2^nd, Fielder 3^rd, Kendall 9^th, and the pitcher 8^th to get the two best hitter more at bats while having guys on base for them. Keeping Fielder 4^th would be better so that his HRs aren’t wasted with no one on base, but still. It’s the kind of thinking outside the box that makes sense and helps a team pick up a game or two. Gallardo is going to be very, very good, and if Sheets pitches the whole season I could easily see playoffs (even, dare I say, a World Series trophy). [I wasn’t a Brewers fan until a couple years ago. I like teams that are young and exciting, as well as having a clear plan and quality execution. O’s over Brewers in ’10? (it’s a joke now)]

MIN 73 74 O No bet. Liriano, when healthy is astounding. How many pitchers have that good control with that many strike-outs and all those ground balls? One. Liriano. The man had a 2.16 ERA in’06! They’re not a bad team, but they lack too much offense for Mauer and Morneau (and some from Cuddyer and Young and Kubel), to make up for it. Their starting third baseman hit .210 with 1 HR last year. Why not sign Corey Patterson to steal 40 bases and play quality defense instead of rushing a player to the majors when he isn’t ready (and Gomez is pretty clearly not ready).

NYM 93.5 93 U No bet. David Wright should have been the MVP last year. He is a major talent. Jose Reyes is also talented but very overrated. He might end up being really good, but a career OBP around .330 isn’t going to cut it from a lead-of hitter, even if he steals 100 bases (which he could, if he got on more). Santana is the favorite for the Cy Young, but what the get from Pedro and Oliver Perez may determine how good they really are. John Maine is turning into a #2 starter (wish that deal hadn’t gone down). Is Delgado done, or does have another 30 HR 100 RBI season left?

NYY 93.5 95 O A-Rod, like him or hate him (I just kinda’ dislike him) is the best player in baseball. He isn’t a choke artist, he may be a jerk, but he is the best. Jeter’s defense is really, really bad. Every quality metric says the same thing – he has no range. If he planted, turned, and threw instead of leaping and spinning he would get more guys out. It’s common sense (less momentum going away from first = stronger throw). Still, Wang is a quality #2; Andy (who is some sort of hero now for admitting (after the third time he was asked) to using HGH and then changing what he thinks he knows so many times) is still valuable; Mussina (maybe my all time favorite player, and future HOF hopefully – he deserves it) will bounce back a bit; Hughes is going to be really good; Kennedy isn’t a young Mussina as people say, but as a #5 he’ll be good. The bullpen could use a little work, but if they keep Joba there all year and use him effectively (multiple innings, important situations) that’ll solve that. He has to be really good in the pen to merit keeping him out of the rotation if he only pitches an inning at a time.

I think they’re the team to beat in the East, but other than Cano and A-Rod, that offense is susceptible to some age/health issues.

OAK 73.5 77 O Another one of my favorite teams. Lost one of their best hitters and their best pitcher and everybody thinks that they’ll be awful because they don’t have pitching and the offense is thin on stars. They did get a lot of pitching depth though, and a good hitting young outfielder who has some power but may still have some plate discipline issues. Hmm, sounds familiar. If Rich Harden is healthy, then a .500 record is in reach. They can’t possibly have as many injuries as they did last year, can they? Even if they trade Blanton, I still like the over. Billy Bean isn’t the genius some make him out to be, but he’s still one of the better GMs out there. This is the first year in the last 5 that I’m not picking them to win the division. Daric Barton = young Mark Grace?

PHI 88.5 85 U I picked them last year, but I won’t do it again. I don’t trust the pitching outside of Myers and Hamels, who is one of the top pitchers in the league (though I worry about his risk of injury). The offense is really good though. I’m fairly confident here, but if it was 88 instead I would be more hesitant. They cost themselves a lot of money with they Ryan Howard arbitration situation. If they had offered $1 million more they could have saved a couple mil this year, plus he would have gotten smaller raises in the next couple years. I don’t think I’d sign him long term though. Howard at first base at age 35 might be pretty scary.

PIT 68.5 71 O Even with the discrepancy I don’t bet here. Sill, they may not be worse than the Card’s. Ian Snell at the top of the rotation isn’t a #1, but he is a solid #2 (200 K’s this year?) and there is some pitching depth. If Jason Bay can make a bit of a comeback then 72-73 wins is certainly possible. The new front office is going to take the team in the right direction, but the almost complete lack of a farm system is going to take time to overcome.

SDP 84 85 O If Greg Maddux had been on the O’s then he would definitely be my favorite player. He could pitcher forever if he wanted to, and if you don’t trust Clemens’ late career numbers, then Mad Dog is the best pitcher in recent memory and near the top all-time. Add in Jake Peavy and Chris Young, with anything at all from Mark Prior, and you have a great pitching staff, especially in that ballpark. Kevin Towers is one of the best GMs in baseball, and I’m hoping for one last good season for a guy that deserves to get into the HOF – Jim Edmonds. I like the team a lot, but I don’t know if they have enough offense to pull off a season better than 82-80, even. No bet.

SFG 71.5 71 U Worst. Offense. Ever. That might not even be an exaggeration. Bengie Molina batting cleanup? Aaron Rowand at #3, without question? I feel bad for Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum. Cain had one of the best 7-16 seasons ever last year and Lincecum is a beast – a skinny little beast – but a beast none-the-less. Barry Zito is the most expensive #4 starter ever. All that pitching is going to be wasted for a number of years – especially with how bad the front office is. It goes to show you how many mistakes having Barry Bonds can cover up. There are going to be a lot of 1-0, 2-1 losses but it wouldn’t take much for them to luck into a 74 win season. It’s not a terrible bet though.

SEA 84.5 77 U If I had to put money on any one team, it’s the M’s. I didn’t expect this until I looked at it, but the irony is really too great. The two team that I have as furthest away from their lines are the M’s and the O’s, but it’s M’s below, even with Bedard, and O’s above, even without him. They won 9 more games than they should have last year, but unlike the DBacks, they don’t have improvements coming from all of their young players and both teams added a top starter. The pitching is good (especially at Safeco) but after Bedard and Felix Hernandez, do Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn, and Miguel Batista really scare you? [Now I am even less scared of Batista.]They’re all very solid, but the offense has too many holes. I actually looked at the team player by player. The players who walk don’t hit for average (Sexson) or power (Vidro. Seriously, 6 HR from the DH?). If it wasn’t the case that Sexson was only unlucky last year, then they haven’t got much to offer.

After looking at this I later (independently of this) read the following: Bill James looked at what happens to teams after they outplay their expected record. He took the 100 teams who exceeded the expected most and looked at how they did the following year. The results: on average, the teams won 87 games (M’s won 88) when they should have won 78 (M’s should have won 79), and the next year they won 80 games (I have the M’s at 81 myself. BP has them at 73). Keep in mind that teams that do well generally try to improve the following year, so it’s not that the M’s are the only one to get new pitchers.

They were very lucky last year with no explanation whatsoever, and they just aren’t that talented.

At least the O’s players have some upside. With the M’s it’s mostly downside (yeah, I’m sure Bedard will K 11 per 9 innings again). This isn’t 100%, but I think the A’s have the better team. Maybe even the O’s too. Wouldn’t that be something?

[The guy at USS Mariner, an M’s blog, has the team winning 77 games with a standard deviation of 71-84 wins. Interestingly, he also has the A’s as the division favorites over the Angels 47% to 42% with Texas about even with Seattle . 95% of his simulations had the team with 86 wins or under, 77% at 82 or under and 27% with 74 or under. The best-case was 93 wins. The problem wasn’t pitching (which their GM addressed) but a terrible offense and a bad defense. He said “Since I ran the season, I’ve stared at the results and tried to find a reason to not write this post. Some thing that would invalidate the results, or that would give me an excuse to change something and go back to do it all over with even more pro-Mariner assumptions. But there isn’t…If you start from last year’s team and make adjustments, it’s easy to come up with another five, ten, sixteen wins. But starting from scratch, using reasonable assumptions, the picture looks much bleaker.”] Even real slam-dunks miss sometimes, if the ball gets stuck or bounces off the rim, but I’d call this my “shoe-in” or “lock” or whatever other term they use.

STL 77 73 U A bad team. If Pujols goes down then they’re done. The scary thing is; Pujols has been playing with injuries most of his career. What would he have done if healthy? They should have been a 71 win team last year, but somehow won 78 games. At least the fans don’t need to deal with David Eckstein articles anymore. Yes he’s small. And really white. We get it. Even if he tries really hard he still isn’t very good. He gets on base OK. That’s it. He’s just not good, no matter how scrappy he is. (And don’t even get me started on Darin Erstad. Who cares that he was a punter for his college football team? That doesn’t make him good at baseball. That doesn’t even make him that tough. He was the punter.) Anyway, I like the under a lot. I really would be surprised if the were over 77.

TEX 74.5 73 U I like the direction the team is heading, but it’s not there yet. I wouldn’t bet on this one though, in either direction.

TOR 85 83 U I don’t think I’d bet here. At 86 I might, but not 85. Dustin McGowan is a quality pitcher (he had the highest average fastball velocity among starters last year; 96.1 mph I believe it was). It’s hard to tell what they’ll get from Vernon Wells, and that contract doesn’t look good if he’s merely “good”. Alex Rios is the best defensive RF in the league, and Aaron Hill might surprise at second base. A shame they won’t let Adam Lind play, though I do love seeing Matt Stairs around. The guy kind of looks like a lumberjack he makes his own bat out of a tree that he chopped down. I doubt they’ll challenge the Sox and Yanks much - they should be more concerned with Tampa Bay next year.

TBR (Since its Rays instead of Devil Rays TBD should change to TBR right?) No O/U given, but predicting 79 wins. That’s right, 79. If they signed Bonds it would be over .500 (as long as Kazmir isn’t hurt). Kazmir/Shields/Garza/McGee/Davis/Sonnastine/Price/… whoever is going to be a very good rotation. Maybe not this year, but soon. They have some actual major leaguers in the bullpen now. Pena probably won’t repeat last year average wise, but the power and on-base skills are legit (though 46HR is a bit much). The defense should go from bad ( Upton made ~12 errors in 48 games at second) to good (new SS Bartlett is one of the better defenders in baseball), and Evan Longoria can seriously hit. If they weren’t in the AL East I would be rooting for them more, but their front office is finally on-the-ball and they should have their eyes set on the division crown in the near future (especially if they can afford to keep their best players). If the line is as low 76 wins I’m in, as I’ve seen predictions as high as 89 (as a median).

WAS 71.5 71 U No bet. They overachieved last year. The team is improving but the rotation is still lacking behind Shawn Hill and John Patterson (hopefully) and the lineup is improved but still nothing great. Dmitri Young playing over Nick Johnson is a waste. If the new park is as friendly is it sounds to be Lastings Milledge could go 20/20 next year. Wily Mo Pena might go 30/150 (that’s homeruns/strikeouts). Zimmerman is good and going to be very good, but he definitely doesn’t deserve the David Wright money that he’s asking for (yet, at least). Manny Acta is one of the smartest managers around though.

There’s another bet that is possible. It involves “clutch” hitting. One can bet on “clutch” hitting in 2008 by specifying a group of “clutch” players and a group of “choke” players, as well as a situation (ex. after the 7^th inning and tied, or whatever). At the end of the year the groups are compared. Whichever one had better relative performance (via batting average) in the given situation wins. There are 2-1 odds, though, against there being a difference. If you’re 67% sure that you can hand-pick player(s) and they’ll be more “clutch” than your hand-picked “chokers” then let me know. It can even be one “clutch” guy vs. a bunch of “chokers” or whatever. Derek Jeter vs. A-Rod with the game on the line? David Ortiz vs. Neifi Perez, Eduardo Perez, all of the Perez’s? The stipulations need to be approved (can’t define clutch as when an NL guy hits against a bad pitcher or an AL guy hits against a good pitcher and have the groups be NL and AL guys, etc.) but if you believe “clutch” exists, you should be able to point it out.