At Least He's Really Tall

There are rumors going around that the O's are interested in bringing in Richie Sexson to play first base. Just doing some quick calculus, Sexson might give you a league average bat (if you're lucky) so that's +0 wins. He plays a bad (generously -.75 wins) first base (-1.25 wins). At 500 PA that's a 0.4 WAR player with no upside and plenty of downside. He might not want even the $2 M or so he'd earn at that rate of production, but why bother? Go for the upside and let Nolan Reimold play first. He probably starts at 0 WAR but might give you 1 or even 2. Or put him in left and let Luke Scott man first. I really hope that MacPhail has more sense than this, because such a move would be pointless and really irritating to even minimally knowledgeable fans. There is the off-chance that Gary Thorne actually learns his name though, and stops calling him Richie Sexton. I guess in the grand scheme of things, that's a plus. Read more ...

Others' Projections

Just like last year, ReplacementLevel.com (a Yankee blog) has some projected standings for the AL East (though they are preliminary).

He has the O's offense putting up a .267/.336/.422 line compared to my .275/.341/.425. That's 779 runs scored to 791. He also has the O's pitching staff putting up a 4.80 ERA with a 4.92 FIP and giving up 832 runs, while I have them with a 5.07 tRA (5.42 for starters and 4.59 for relievers) and giving up about 811 (different scales, I know).

That means his O's have a Pythagorean record of 76-86, but then he makes an adjustment to all of the teams for being in the AL East and having to play each other more. After that, the O's lose 5 wins to go to 71-91.

The final standings, by the way, where:
NYY - 96
BOS - 94
TBR - 90
TOR - 75
BAL - 71

Last year pretty much everyone was low on the O's win totals, and even those that got the 68 wins were off because they had that as the Pythagorean record whereas the Orioles RS/RA implied they should have won 73 games. I was higher on Nick Markakis than almost all projections, and he still managed to exceed my expectations for total production (lower SLG, much higher OBP). This year I'm once again on the high end for him as well as the team as a whole. We'll see how it turns out. The AL East adjustment is interesting - even though I already started things off 5 wins lower than I understand it should be, I'll probably knock off a couple more for the final guess. Read more ...

Modest Improvements

I have the O's projected at about 78 wins right now, which seems pretty high (I went back and added a couple of players that I originally missed and gave more plate appearances to the bench (at worse production, though with improved defense to keep them at 0 WAR) at the expense of the starters - I didn't want to be overly optimistic about the run scoring. Plus, it seems like Hendrickson will be a long-reliever/spot starter so his innings and replacement level had to be adjusted accordingly). They only won 68 games last year, but had a Pythagorean record with 73 wins (and about the same number from 45 + team WAR - theoretically it should be more like 50 as the starting point, but I made it lower since the AL East is such a tough division). Where have those extra 6 wins come from?

* Upgrade at catcher. Wieters should at the very least be better than Ramon was behind the plate. I also think that while Razor was below average with the bat last year, Wieters will be a bit above average. Add in a competent back-up/starter for the first month (*cough* Gregg Zaun *cough*) instead of replacement level players like Guillermo Quiroz (who I still like) Omir Santos, and the catcher position should see a one win improvement (at least) for 2009.

* Upgrade at first base. Kevin Millar was a replacement level player in 2008. Oscar Salazar (or whoever) isn't exactly Mark Teixeira, but he should be an above replacement (if below average) player over there. A half win or so.

* Luke Scott not having to split time with a replacement level player in left (so long, Jay Payton) is a plus. I think he'll hit better too. Tack on another half-win.

* Adam Jones' bat becomes only a little below average and he doesn't get injured (hopefully). Half win addition.

* Finally the big one - shortstop. Six Orioles' shortstops combined to be horribly below replacement last year, with Juan Castro being the worst offender (though only because he got the most playing time). It is unbelievable to me that the team could go through that many players and have them all be below replacement. There had to be someone freely available that could have sucked less. Cesar Izturis isn't a world-beater, but his modest 1 WAR talent is actually a 4 WAR improvement from last year's mess.

* Roberts, Mora, and Huff will all likely decline, but improvement with the pitching staff will hopefully make up for all of that. There will be some regression for a couple of guys (mainly Jim Johnson), but regression in the positive direction from Garrett Olson, Radhames Liz, Jamie Walker, and some others should more than counteract that. Call it a half-win loss to be conservative.

Will the Orioles really win 78 games next year? Probably not, but that doesn't mean they can't. Their position players are good enough to repeat their 68 wins from 2008 with even a replacement level pitching staff, so it'll be the pitchers that determine how far they go. Read more ...

WAR Update

With a couple of new additions (Cesar Izturis and 6'9" lefty pitcher Mark Hendrickson) it's time for updated 2009 WAR projections.

Offense:

Player	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Matt Weiters	400	99	21	1	12	36	.273	.339	.436	.340
Oscar Salazar	450	111	21	1	15	44	.274	.346	.443	.349
Brian Roberts	625	158	40	5	9	69	.285	.365	.425	.358
Melvin Mora	550	137	24	1	17	46	.273	.335	.426	.341
Cesar Izturis	550	135	20	2	3	37	.264	.314	.329	.293
Luke Scott	575	136	35	3	24	59	.265	.341	.485	.360
Adam Jones	575	145	31	2	15	41	.273	.325	.423	.331
Nick Markakis	625	161	41	1	20	88	.301	.401	.494	.395
Aubrey Huff	600	153	35	2	23	52	.280	.344	.478	.359
Luis Montanez	200	53	12	1	5	14	.286	.337	.443	.342
Ryan Freel	350	87	16	1	3	30	.273	.336	.358	.323
Bench	500	118	15	1	8	27	.250	.292	.337	.292
Total (Starters)	4,950	1,235	268	18	138	472	.277	.347	.438	.349
Total (Team)	6,000	1,493	311	21	154	543	.275	.341	.425	.342

Position Players:

Player	Pos.	2008 wOBA	2008 wOBA+	2009 "Proj." wOBA	2009 "Proj." PA	Pos. Adj.	Def.	Bat (700 PA)	WAR	$WAR	Proj. Salary	Diff
Matt Weiters	C	.458 (AA)	134	.340	400	1.25	0.00	0.1	2.2	$10.9	$0.4	$10.5
Oscar Salazar	1B	.394	116	.349	450	-1.25	0.00	0.6	1.2	$6.1	$0.4	$5.7
Brian Roberts	2B	.374	112	.358	625	0.25	0.00	1.1	3.4	$17.0	$8.0	$9.0
Melvin Mora	3B	.364	108	.341	550	0.25	-0.75	0.1	1.7	$8.4	$9.0	-$0.6
Cesar Izturis	SS	.260	79	.293	550	0.75	0.50	-2.7	0.9	$4.5	$2.5	$2.0
Luke Scott	LF	.356	106	.360	575	-0.75	0.25	1.2	2.6	$13.2	$1.0	$12.2
Adam Jones	CF	.322	96	.331	575	0.25	0.75	-0.5	2.5	$12.5	$0.4	$12.1
Nick Markakis	RF	.398	119	.395	625	-0.75	0.50	3.2	4.9	$24.2	$7.0	$17.2
Aubrey Huff	DH	.389	116	.359	600	-1.75	0.00	1.2	1.6	$8.3	$8.0	$0.3
Luis Montanez	OF	.352	104	.342	200	-0.75	0.00	0.2	0.5	$3.1	$0.4	$2.7
Ryan Freel	Util	.323	99	.323	350	0.00	0.00	-0.9	0.8	$4.2	$4.0	$0.2
Bench				.292	500	0.00	0.25	-2.7	0.0	$0.5	$0.4	$0.1
Total									22.3	$112.9	$41.5	$71.4

Pitchers:

Player	Pos.	2008 tRA	2008 tRA+	2008 tRA* regressed	2009 "Proj." tRA	2009 "Proj." IP	WAR	$WAR	Proj. Salary	Diff
Jeremy Guthrie	SP	4.84	101	4.80	4.75	180	2.7	$13.5	$2.0	$11.5
Garrett Olson	SP	5.26	92	5.26	5.25	160	1.5	$7.7	$0.4	$7.3
Radhames Liz	SP	6.86	59	6.00	6.00	120	0.1	$1.0	$0.4	$0.6
Chris Waters	SP	5.84	80	5.16	5.75	100	0.4	$2.3	$0.4	$1.9
Hayden Penn	SP	5.80 (AAA)	80 (AAA)	5.12 (AAA)	6.00	100	0.1	$0.9	$0.4	$0.5
Matt Albers	SP/RP (67-33)	3.08 / 4.59	137 / 97	4.84 / 4.67	4.75	120	1.4	$7.2	$0.4	$6.8
Mark Hendrickson	SP/RP (50-50)	5.53 / 4.22	84 / 105	5.15 / 4.58	5.00	100	0.7	$3.9	$4.0	-$0.1
Brian Burres	SP/RP (50-50)	6.20 / 5.94	73 / 74	5.95 / 4.65	5.75	100	-0.1	-$0.1	$0.4	-$0.5
George Sherrill	RP	4.07	109	4.35	4.00	60	0.9	$4.8	$2.0	$2.8
Jim Johnson	RP	3.48	122	4.14	4.00	70	1.0	$5.3	$0.4	$4.9
Chris Ray	RP	4.30 (2007)	108 (2007)	4.24 (2007)	4.50	50	0.4	$2.1	$0.5	$1.6
Dennis Sarfate	RP	4.23	105	4.53	4.50	60	0.5	$2.7	$0.4	$2.3
Alberto Castillo	RP	4.47	100	4.40	4.50	40	0.3	$1.9	$0.4	$1.5
Jamie Walker	RP	6.83	47	5.19	5.00	40	0.1	$0.8	$4.5	-$3.7
Kam Mickolio	RP	3.91	113	4.49	4.50	40	0.3	$1.9	$0.4	$1.5
Randor Bierd	RP	5.23	83	5.13	5.00	35	0.2	$1.2	$0.4	$0.8
Danys Baez	RP	7.04 (2007)	50 (2007)	5.68 (2007)	5.00	35	0.2	$1.2	$5.5	-$4.3
Jim Miller	RP	3.26	127	4.45	4.50	30	0.3	$1.7	$0.4	$1.3
Total					5.07	1440	10.9	$60.0	$23.3	$36.7

Total Team WAR (assuming 45 wins for a replacement level team): 78.3 Read more ...