Gibby's Back

In an act that probably makes Barry Bonds pretty angry, the Milwaukee Brewers have signed Jay Gibbons to a minor league contract.

"The 31-year old Gibbons met with assistant general manager Gord Ash and special assistant Jack Zduriencik at the All-Star Game to interview for a contract. And with some injuries hitting Huntsville's roster, Gibbons was a good enough fit after hitting .280 with five home runs in 27 games for the independent Atlantic League's Long Island Ducks.

Gibbons, a career .260 hitter in seven seasons with Baltimore, was named in the Mitchell Report and admitted to using human growth hormone, and he later wrote letters to 29 teams to apologize for his mistake.

"He was just a guy that we looked at, a left-handed bat," general manager Doug Melvin said. "Gord's familiar with him from Toronto. He's come across as a guy that wants to get back and playing. I don't even know exactly what his issues were, but they weren't anything serious enough to not give a guy a second chance.""

Be bad at baseball, take PEDs, and not be a jerk - you get a contract. Take steroids and be a jerk, but have the potential to actually improve a team by 3 wins or so? You sit at home. The Brewers aren't in need of a guy like Bonds (the positions he plays are taken) but that last part that Melvin said would have irked me if I was in his (Barry's) position. Oh well. That Gibbons might actually get to the postseason this year is kind of upsetting to me, but I don't hate the guy or anything and wish him luck in putting his career back together. Read more ...

Taking Out The Trash

Corey Patterson, Jay Gibbons, and the "garbage" home run. OriolesCentral had a post about how these (and other) O's hitters would hit home runs when they didn't help the team (they were up or down by a lot of points), but it was based on general observation - here's my initial response, and some stats about it:

Perhaps Corey Patterson and Jay Gibbons just aren’t very good hitters (shocking, I know) so when a team has a huge lead, the opposing pitcher is OK with throwing fastballs in the zone (which these guys can actually hit) and when the game is close, they throw breaking-pitches and paint the corners (which they can’t hit). I don’t think it has anything at all to do with “clutchness” but is rather a general lack of talent. I question whether or not it is actually the case that these players do hit a lot of “meaningless” HR, so I’ll take a look at that sometime soon and post something about it. If you already did that, then I will defer to your conclusions (I assume it’s just your impression of what happens).

Jay Gibbons: 25.1 PA / HR career
In Close & Late Situations: 45.8 Plate appearances per HR
Tie Game: 33.1 PA / HR
1 Run Difference: 23.4 PA / HR
2 Run Difference: 20.1 PA / HR
3 Run Difference: 18.3 PA / HR
4 Run Difference: 34.1 PA / HR
Within 4 Runs: 24.2 PA / HR
More Than 4 Runs: 31.6 PA / HR

It appears that Jay actually hit home runs more frequently when the team is up/down by 1-3 runs than when the game is tied or the lead is large. In general, Gibbons homered more often when the game wasn't out of hand.

In High Leverage Situations: 29.2 PA / HR
In Medium Leverage Situations: 21.2 PA / HR
In Low Leverage Situations: 28.2 PA / HR

Gibbons (strangely) homered more often in medium leverage situations than either of the two extremes.

As for when Gibbons hit home runs, it was 29.4 PA / HR in the first three innings, 18.2 PA / HR in the middle three innings, and 34.2 PA / HR in the last three innings. That seems to imply that Gibbons rarely hit homers in the eighth when the team was down by 6 (or whatever).

His clutch score via fangraphs is -1.77 for his career (and was only positive once, in 2002) so, in general, he does worse in "clutch" situations than his usual production, but I would have to say that the evidence doesn't support him hitting too many "garbage" home runs.

Corey Patterson: 34.7 PA / HR career
Close & Late: 31.4 PA / HR
Tie Game: 33.9 PA / HR
1 Run Difference: 40.2 PA / HR
2 Run Difference: 38.5 PA / HR
3 Run Difference: 23.3 PA / HR
4 Run Difference: 51.8 PA / HR
Within 4 Runs: 35.3 PA / HR
More Then 4 Runs: 31.5 PA / HR

High Leverage Situations: 40.3 PA / HR
Medium Leverage Situations: 31.9 PA / HR
Low Leverage Situations: 35.1 PA / HR

Innings 1-3: 41.7 PA / HR
Innings 4-6: 34.8 PA / HR
Innings 7-9: 32.2 PA / HR

Clutch: -1.82 Career, One year non-negative (2003)

Corey is "unclutch" and does hit home runs more frequently late in the game and in non-high leverage situations. The home runs came more often when the game was out of hand than when it was close. Could potentially be a "garbage" HR hitter.

I want to look at a "clutch" HR hitter now - David Ortiz.

Career: 18.7 PA / HR
Close & Late: 16.9 PA / HR
Tie Game: 16.8 PA / HR
1 Run Difference: 21.0 PA / HR
2 Run Difference: 16.9 PA / HR
3 Run Difference: 17.6 PA / HR
4 Run Difference: 29.1 PA / HR
Within 4 Runs: 18.6 HR / PA
More Then 4 Runs: 19.7 PA / HR

High Leverage Situations: 20.2 PA / HR
Medium Leverage Situations: 19.6 PA / HR
Low Leverage Situations: 17.4 PA / HR

Innings 1-3: 22.5 PA / HR
Innings 4-6: 16.4 PA / HR
Innings 7-9: 18.9 PA / HR

Clutch: 2.89 Career

David Ortiz has a pattern of hitting home runs more often in low leverage situations than in high leverage ones. He does homer more with the score closer and later in the games. Ortiz is "clutch", but as home runs go, it's hard to say that he doesn't hit the occasional "garbage" shot, himself.

To get a definitive conclusion here, I would need to go throw the game logs to look at the situations for each HR these guys hit - I don't want to do that so I'll just say that Jay and Corey probably don't hit lots of "worthless" home runs (no more than would be expected). Read more ...

Gone, Gibby, Gone

Jay Gibbons has been released by the O's. The team is responsible for paying the amount remaining on his contract, but it was still a good move. The contract was bad to begin with; it was based largely on his 100 RBI in 2003 when he was the team's clean-up hitter. At this point, Gibbons had no position - the O's have players for LF, RF, 1B, and DH - and so if his bat couldn't carry him (likely, no, it couldn't) then it didn't make sense to waste a roster spot. I think it was the correct call, but I am kind of surprised that it was made. I guess MacPhail does have control of the team.

This decision was made easier by the quality play by Scott Moore. Though he won't hit for a high average, but be should still be an asset at the plate (projected 258 / 337 / 451) when you take into account his position flexibility. If Moore can become competent at second base, then four players (Moore, Fahey, Redman/Payton, Quiroz) can cover all of the positions as back-ups. I don't think it's 100% necessary to keep a 12-man bullpen, and if the rotation can prove that it can go 6-7 innings semi-consistently, then I can see an arm getting traded without another pitcher taking his place. The position players aren't that great overall, but there is a good deal of flexibility. Trembley can get an extra lefty into the line-up by playing Moore at third for Melvin Mora or first for Kevin Millar. Aubrey Huff can go to first or third without too large of a defensive drop-off. Both Moore and Fahey should be OK at second if Roberts needs a day off. In fact, if Roberts is eventually traded without a second basemen coming back in the deal, then it might be a good idea to see if Moore can handle second all the time. When the Atlanta Braves needed a second baseman, they brought Kelly Johnson in from the outfield, which has worked out very well. Moore isn't the stereotypical slick-fielding no-hit 2B, but his bat would definitely be a plus their and his defense - with plenty of practice - should be manageable (he used to play shortstop). Read more ...