Relatively Disappointing Start For The Birds

A month into the season is a nice time to stop and look at how everyone's doing (on the O's, at least).

Team:
9-14 record
120 runs scored and 154 runs allowed for a 9-14 pythogrean record
In last place in the AL East, a half game behind the the Rays.

Offense:

Gregg Zaun:
Projected: .241/.340/.374, 5 HR, .320 wOBA
Actual: .138/.254/.224, 0 HR, .225 wOBA
PrOPS: .252/.350/.317
(PrOPS is a formula for predicting what a player's batting line is likely to be in the future based on his batted balls, strikeouts, home runs and walks.)

His average is low because of a low BABIP, but he's still showing good plate discipline. The power hasn't shown up yet almost at all.

Aubrey Huff:
Projected: .280/.344/.472, 22 HR, .357 wOBA
Actual: .283/.350/.446, 3 HR, .364 wOBA
PrOPS: .284/.352/.445

Huff's hitting the ball on the ground over 55% of the time that he puts it in play, which may have something to do with the even larger drop in power than was expected. His walks have gone up though, which is a good sign for his continued value with the bat even without the home runs. Unfortunately, his glove at first has been atrocious (-33.5 runs per 150 games so far) and that's kept him as a replacement level player.

Brian Roberts:
Projected: .285/.365/.425, 9 HR, .358 wOBA
Actual: .337/.406/.484, 2 HR, .419 wOBA
PrOPS: .296/.366/.437

Roberts is only 3 of 6 on stolen base attempts, but if he keeps swinging the bat this well it won't matter. And his defense has remained only slightly below average, which is nice to see.

Cesar Izturis:
Projected: .260/.311/.327, 3 HR, .290 wOBA
Actual: .232/.274/.319, 1 HR, .290 wOBA
PrOPS: .303/.338/.413

Izturis' BABIP is .231, so that average will go up - especially given that he puts everything in play (only 3 walks and 3 K's). He hasn't hit more than 1 HR in a season since 2005 (he hit 2), so we may have seen the extent of his power production already.

Melvin Mora:
Projected: .271/.333/.418, 16 HR, .334 wOBA
Actual: .308/.379/.423, 1 HR, .416 wOBA
PrOPS: .338/.406/.511

Mora has only played in 8 games thus far due to an injury, but when he's been in there he's continued hitting like he did at the end of last year.

Felix Pie:
Projected: .267/.322/.409, 10 HR, .323 wOBA
Actual: .157/.246/.216, 1 HR, .221 wOBA
PrOPS: .256/.331/.388

Pie's defense hasn't been as advertised yet (it's only been about average in LF) but his bat hasn't been as bad as it's looked. A .194 BABIP despite a 23% line-drive rate will definitely not continue, and his increased walk rate (from 7.8% to 10.5%) and decreased strike-out rate (from 34.9% to 27.5%) are both good signs. He needs to be given plenty of at bats to work through this.

Adam Jones:
Projected: .273/.325/.425, 15 HR, .331 wOBA
Actual: .361/.432/.627, 4 HR, .470 wOBA
PrOPS: .300/.380/.513

Jones' has more than doubled his walk rate (from 4.6% to 9.8%), and that's backed up by a drop in percentage of pitches out of the zone that he's swung at (from 36.2% to 25%). He's probably not going to keep an OPS over 1.000 up, but there's no reason the break-out season won't continue. A .300/.380/.510 season with even average defense would make Jones a 5 win player.

Nick Markakis:
Projected: .301/.401/.493, 20 HR, .395 wOBA
Actual: .379/.462/.586, 3 HR, .450 wOBA
PrOPS: .309/.408/.489

Walks are still up but he's cut the strike-out rate from 19% to 15%. Line-drives up to 23.7% (from 21.1%). His PrOPS line is basically his line from last year (.306/.406/.491), when he might have been lucky on his BABIP. Just a great hitter that keeps improving year after year.

Luke Scott:
Projected: .262/.343/.476, 23 HR, .355 wOBA
Actual: .286/.382/.468, 3 HR, .360 wOBA
PrOPS: .302/.395/.494

Like several other Orioles, Luke is walking more and striking out less, and drilling the ball when he does make contact (24.2% line-drive rate).

Ty Wigginton:
Projected: .271/.334/.469, 20 HR, .350 wOBA
Actual: .207/.244/.256, 1 HR, .233 wOBA
PrOPS: .271/.302/.378

Wigginton isn't swinging more than he used to; he isn't getting thrown a lot of strikes; and he's making a ton of contact. That makes his 4.7% walk rate even more confusing, though it's likely due to his putting the ball in play early in the count. .225 BABIP will come up, as will his 3% HR/FB rate. He probably needs to change his approach some though.

Chad Moeller:
Projected: .229/.281/.344, 1 HR, .286 wOBA
Actual: .292/.346/.583, 1 HR, .390 wOBA
PrOPS: .314/.361/.512

Moeller wasn't brought in to hit this well, but it's certainly a nice bonus.

Ryan Freel:
Projected: .254/.327/.353, 3 HR, .321 wOBA
Actual: .133/.350/.133, 0 HR, .270 wOBA
PrOPS: .167/.360/.217

Freel's not hitting well, and he may not be seen in an O's uniform again. Wouldn't be a big loss.

Robert Andino:
Projected: .235/.281/.342, 1 HR, .292 wOBA
Actual: .375/.412/.375, 0 HR, .403 wOBA
PrOPS: .269/.311/.341

Life's nice when you have a .462 BABIP. Replacement level back-up infielder.

Luis Montanez:
Projected: .274/.326/.432, 2 HR, .333 wOBA
Actual: .158/.227/.263, 0 HR, .168 wOBA
PrOPS: .247/.317/.320

Maybe Luis shouldn't have talked so much about being over-looked for a spot on the team. Pie has shown the better underlying stats, and has the higher ceiling.

Total offense:
Projected: .272/.342/.429, 160 HR, .338 wOBA
Actual: .275/.350/.417, 20 HR, .349 wOBA

The O's are walking at a decent clip and really doing a good job putting the ball in play. The guys that are really hitting well are the ones that are the major parts of the team's long term plans.

Pitching:

Jeremy Guthrie:
Projected ERA: 4.15
Actual ERA: 5.20
tRA: 5.70

Strike-outs down and walks up for a second year in a row. Not good.

Koji Uehara:
Projected ERA: 4.70
Actual ERA: 4.50
tRA: 4.04

Control is as advertised (1.80 BB/9). Home run problems too (1.5 HR/9). The O's best starter right now.

Mark Hendrickson:
Projected ERA: 5.13
Actual ERA: 5.79
tRA: 7.82

Control has been bad (4.63 BB/9) and he's giving up a ton of long-balls (2.70 HR/9 - that's 60 over 200 IP). Can't wait until Rich Hill comes up to take his spot.

Adam Eaton:
Projected ERA: 5.30
Actual ERA: 7.17
tRA: 3.39

Giving up a .408 BABIP which is contributing greatly to that high ERA. Has been better than anyone had any right to expect.

Alfredo Simon:
Projected ERA: 5.43
Actual ERA: 9.95
tRA: 15.64

Gave up 5 HR in 6.1 IP, and now is out for the year. Too bad for Simon, but probably a good thing for the team.

Brad Bergesen:
Projected ERA: 5.18
Actual ERA: 5.59
tRA: 7.46

3 ER in 6 IP today not included in the stats (lowers his ERA to 5.17). Has to keep the ball on the ground (over 60% groundball rate so far) and limit the free passes (BB/9 below 3 for far) to have success.

George Sherrill:
Projected ERA: 3.79
Actual ERA: 4.66
tRA: 4.63

He's not a closer; he's a left-handed reliever (.237 OPS by lefties vs. 1.137 OPS by righties). The split from last year isn't as extreme (.534 vs. .787), but the point still stands.

Jim Johnson:
Projected ERA: 3.85
Actual ERA: 3.00
tRA: 4.69

The BABIP and HR/FB have corrected, but JJ has upped his K's (from 5 to 7 per nine) and lowered his walks (from 3.7 to 3.0 per nine). The 32.1% line-drive rate will come down and so Johnson will really be able to establish himself as a solid set-up man. His fastball is averaging 94 mph and has above average movement, and that will serve him well.

Chris Ray:
Projected ERA: 4.10
Actual ERA: 7.56
tRA: 3.64

10.8 K/9 is very nice, but he still needs to work on his control (4.3 BB/9). The absurd .491 BABIP will come way down, at which point maybe Dave Trembley will make the smart move and switch his role with Sherrill's. His fastball velocity is down from where it used to be, but it has more movement on it. Same thing with the slider and the splitter. He had a rough couple of games to start the year, but has been almost lights out since.

Danys Baez:
Projected ERA: 4.70
Actual ERA: 3.00
tRA: 2.46

Didn't see it coming, but Baez has been fantastic. 8.25 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 62.5% groundball rate. 93 mph fastball with more movement than he had on it in 2007. Still not worth $6.2 M.

Jamie Walker:
Projected ERA: 4.72
Actual ERA: 2.08
tRA: 1.27

Only gotten 4.1 IP so far this year, but he hasn't walked a batter or given up a HR and has 5 K's.

Dennis Sarfate:
Projected ERA: 4.37
Actual ERA: 6.39
tRA: 7.13

Walks are way down (7 BB/9 to 5 BB/9) but still bad, but and the K's fell even more (9.7 K/9 to 7.1). Maybe he's hurt, since his velocity was really dropped off from 94.3 mph to 91.4.

Matt Albers:
Projected ERA: 4.38
Actual ERA: 7.71
tRA: 5.37

A 1-1 strike-out to walk ratio just will not cut it, and he's not even getting groundballs anymore (just 22.2%).

Radhames Liz:
Projected ERA: 4.73
Actual ERA: 67.50
tRA: 19.19

4 outs, 8 hits, 10 runs, 2 walks, and a K. Awful.

Brian Bass:
Projected ERA: 4.58
Actual ERA: 6.35
tRA: 6.00

The .347 BABIP and 33.3% HR/FB rates have to come down, and his 8.5 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 have been good. Doesn't throw hard, but is getting a lot of movement on his fastball. Bass seems to be a decent enough arm at the back of the pen.

Total pitching:
Projected ERA: 4.73
Actual ERA: 6.01
tRA: 5.50

The pitching has been pretty bad, but that's largely a result of a .343 BABIP (which is easily the worst in baseball; LAA is next at .329) and a 1.83 HR/9 (between PHI at 1.96 and TEX at 1.52 as the worst three teams). A 6.95 K/9 that's around average and a 3.3 BB/9 that's third best in baseball are very positive signs. With the (potentially) good outfield defense, the O's may have looked too much to take advantage of it and have the highest flyball rate in baseball. As expected though, this is probably not an optimal strategy for a team that plays in Camden Yards. Read more ...

2009 Orioles Wins Above Replacement Projections

With the roster more or less finalized, I've done likewise for the projections for the BeyondTheBoxScore WAR project. My spreadsheet is here, and the underlying stats are below.

Offense:

Matt Wieters:
300 PA, .289/.359/.482, 10 HR, .365 wOBA

Gregg Zaun:
300 PA, .241/.340/.374, 5 HR, .320 wOBA

Aubrey Huff:
600 PA, .280/.344/.472, 22 HR, .357 wOBA

Brian Roberts:
625 PA, .285/.365/.425, 9 HR, .358 wOBA

Cesar Izturis:
550 PA, .260/.311/.327, 3 HR, .290 wOBA

Melvin Mora:
550 PA, .271/.333/.418, 16 HR, .334 wOBA

Felix Pie:
500 PA, .267/.322/.409, 10 HR, .323 wOBA

Adam Jones:
575 PA, .273/.325/.425, 15 HR, .331 wOBA

Nick Markakis:
650 PA, .301/.401/.493, 20 HR, .395 wOBA

Luke Scott:
575 PA, .262/.343/.476, 23 HR, .355 wOBA

Ty Wigginton:
475 PA, .271/.334/.469, 20 HR, .350 wOBA

Chad Moeller:
75 PA, .229/.281/.344, 1 HR, .286 wOBA

Ryan Freel:
300 PA, .254/.327/.353, 3 HR, .321 wOBA

Robert Andino:
100 PA, .235/.281/.342, 1 HR, .292 wOBA

Luis Montanez:
75 PA, .274/.326/.432, 2 HR, .333 wOBA

Total offense: .272/.342/.429, 160 HR, .338 wOBA

In 2008, the O's hit .269/.333/.429, 172 HR, .340 wOBA so things don't look all that different. Huff and Mora probably won't repeat their '08 seasons, but the additions of Wigginton and Wieters help. A bit above average again, while putting a plus defense on the field (especially in the outfield).

Starting pitching:

Pitcher	IP	ERA
Jeremy Guthrie	180	4.15
Koji Uehara	150	4.70
Rich Hill	100	5.00
Matt Hendrickson	80	5.13
Adam Eaton	70	5.30
Alfredo Simon	70	5.43
Brad Bergesen	75	5.18
Chris Waters	65	5.51
David Pauley	55	5.40
Danys Baez	35	5.47
Matt Albers	30	4.74
Radhames Liz	25	5.52
Total	935	4.95

Relief pitching:

Pitcher	IP	ERA
George Sherrill	55	3.79
Jim Johnson	60	3.85
Chris Ray	50	4.10
Dennis Sarfate	55	4.37
Jamie Walker	35	4.72
Danys Baez	40	4.70
Kam Mickolio	35	4.24
Brian Bass	45	4.58
Brad Hennessey	40	4.52
Matt Albers	35	4.38
Matt Hendrickson	25	4.32
Radhames Liz	35	4.73
Total	510	4.31

Pitching total: 4.73 ERA

Last year it was 5.15 so that's a big improvement. It's not really "better" though, as it's really hard to pitch that poorly (5.14 FIP too) two years in a row. Only two guys in the rotation with ERA's under 5 (Guthrie and Uehara) would make games hard to watch most days, so hopefully they can stay healthy all year. And there's a decent chance that someone (anyone, please) actually lucks into a pretty good season. Alternately, it's likely that one or two guys put up an ERA above 6. The idea is that those guys get replaced quickly (if the ERA is deserved) by someone who is less bad.

Overall, that team has about 78 wins worth of talent based on Wins Above Replacement. Given that they play in the AL East I would personally be inclined to knock another win or two off of that number, but a 75-77 win season is what I'm looking at. And no September collapse would be nice. Read more ...

The Beast & The Least Of The East

Continuing their off-season series, the BaseballAnalysts went through their AL East Preview by position, using a combination of projections systems.

C:
Navarro, D. - .267/.334/.389
Varitek, J. - .236/.328/.390
Posada, J. - .273/.366/.448
Barajas, R. - .243/.303/.392
Wieters, M. - .298/.382/.499

Matt Wieters has easily the best projection, being tops in BA (by 25 points over second place Jorge Posada), OBP (16 over Posada again), and SLG (51 over Posada, again). Even my .289/.359/.482 line would make him better with the bat than the other catchers (though Posada’s .366 OBP would be tops in that category).

Pete: “I wonder how much we'll see of Matt Wieters. It doesn't make much sense for Baltimore to start his clock yet.”

Sully: “Wieters in the Minors would be an absolute mockery. After he wins the MVP this season, I fully expect him to fix Healthcare and restore economic prosperity in America.”

Idea... Matt Wieters Facts. Thanks, Sully.

Gregg Zaun’s .241/.340/.374 line actually compares pretty favorably to the other non-Posada catchers.

1B:
Pena, C. - .254/.370/.500
Youkilis, K. - .283/.377/.474
Teixeira, M. - .290/.383/.525
Overbay, L. - .265/.343/.419
Huff, A. - .279/.340/.471

At least Huff is a better hitter than Overbay.

2B:
Iwamura, A. - .270/.346/.389
Pedroia, D. - .307/.368/.456
Cano, R. - .292/.331/.450
Hill, A. - .277/.334/.408
Roberts, B. - .282/.359/.424

I’d like to see how Roberts would rank in this group with the bat if Pedroia didn’t play half is games at Fenway.

3B:
Longoria, E. - .273/.347/.499
Lowell, M. - .275/.336/.444
Rodriguez, A. - .291/.387/.548
Rolen, S. - .263/.342/.434
Mora, M. - .271/.337/.431

Oh, Melvin. With his injury, does A-Rod drop behind Longoria this year?

Marc:” I'm betting 2009 is the year Mora plays like he's 37 years old.”

I had the thought yesterday that maybe Melvin has the reverse problem of a lot of Latin American players (like Tejada) and that he’s really a couple of years younger than we think. That would match up better with his career arc (peak at 29-30 instead of 32-33), and Mora is enough of a space-cadet on the field (and I mean that in the nicest possible way) that I wouldn’t be completely surprised if it turned out to be the case. I’m not saying it’s true, I’m just sayin’ there’s a chance. And it would be really funny.

SS:
Bartlett, J. - .274/.332/.366
Lowrie, J. - .265/.346/.410
Jeter, D. - .299/.367/.419
McDonald, J. - .231/.278/.312
Izturis, C. - .259/.310/.325

Izturis obviously can’t hit very well, but he doesn’t look that horrible in this group. Imagine if he was in the NL East with Hanley, Rollins, Reyes, Escobar, and Guzman.

Marc: “Cesar Izturis should impress defensively in Baltimore but his offense will be abysmal.”

Sully: “With defense factored, will Lowrie be better than Jeter this season?”

Now that is a very interesting question.

LF:
Crawford, C. - .291/.334/.433
Bay, J. - .272/.364/.487
Damon, J. - .279/.352/.423
Lind, A. - .281/.330/.458
Pie, F. - .263/.317/.410

Everyone knows Pie is a project going into the season.

Marc: “Generally speaking, I am really looking forward to watching the young outfield in Baltimore play, with Felix Pie, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis included. Pie was a steal from Chicago and, if motivated, could be just as good as the other two players.”

CF:
Upton, B. - .279/.376/.432
Ellsbury, J. - .293/.350/.415
Gardner, B. - .260/.342/.359
Wells, V. - .274/.329/.457
Jones, A. - .274/.324/.420

The Bossman is #1 (and should be even better than that line), but Jones may find himself in the second spot with even a mild break-out.

RF:
Joyce, M. - .247/.324/.448
Drew, J. - .270/.381/.460
Nady, X. - .278/.332/.462
Rios, A. - .285/.338/.459
Markakis, N. - .297/.378/.477

Replace that Markakis line with my .301/.401/.493 and it’s not even close. I mean, it’s close as it is but he’s still at the top. With A-Rod hurt, Nick might actually be the third best hitter in the AL East next year (after Teixeira and Ortiz).

DH:
Burrell, P. - .245/.368/.464
Ortiz, D. - .281/.387/.543
Matsui, H. - .279/.358/.442
Snider, T. - .262/.330/.462
Scott, L. - .261/.343/.477

Luke holds up pretty well as the DH, considering he’s the only one of these guys that isn’t a minus (sometimes severely) on defense. He would have been second only to Bay in left.

Sully: “Give me the under on Papi and the over on Luke Scott.”

If that under for Ortiz is correct and/or he gets hurt, and Tex has a slow first season in the Bronx, then I can easily see a certain Oriole being the best hitter in the division.

SP: Yeah, we know the O’s rotation sucks. They have an M. Waters putting up a 5.12 ERA. I don’t know who that is; I assume they meant Chris Waters (or maybe Matt Wieters will don an alter-ego and appear on the mound (he did close in college), sometimes pitching to himself – that sounds like on of those “Chuck Norris” type facts [Edit: addressed above]).

Sully: “Sort of like San Francisco's offense heading into last season, I am nothing short of astounded at how bad Baltimore's pitching looks. Of course San Fran wasn't the historically bad lineup I thought they would be so maybe there is hope for that O's staff.”

RP: They only went through the top three relievers for each team, but Sherrill, Ray, and Johnson came out as the worst group.

Bench: They don’t list players, but just discuss them. Every team is mentioned except the Orioles, who’ll have a pretty good one later in the year (Zaun, Wigginton, Freel, Util. player). Stupid (North & South) East Coast (Plus Canada) bias.

Awards:
Wieters got no votes for Rookie of the Year – probably because they don’t think he’ll spend enough time in the Bigs.

Sully: “AL MVP sleeper: Nick Markakis.”

If he wins the AL MVP it’ll be because the O’s at least made a run at the playoffs. And if the O’s are going to make a run at the playoffs, Nick is going to have to have a monster season.

Surprises:

Pete: “I think the Blue Jays could lose 90 games. They have a chance to be dreadful.”
Sully: “I am with Pete. Toronto is going to be horrendous.”

Both guys predicted the O’s to finish fourth. One year in last place and getting to fourth seems like a joyous event. I’ll gladly take it, and it may be becoming more likely than not that that’s how it shakes out (though some Toronto fans let them have it in the comments section). Read more ...

Just Don't Bat Izturis Fourth

David Pinto over at BaseballMusings has a pre-season project going where he takes the projected starting line-up for each team and inputs the players’ Marcel predicted stats (OBP & SLG) into his line-up analysis tool, which gives the number of runs per game the line-up should score, as well as the best and worst configurations using those players.

He has the O’s probable line-up as

Brian Roberts
Melvin Mora
Nick Markakis
Aubrey Huff
Adam Jones
Luke Scott
Gregg Zaun
Cesar Izturis
Felix Pie

scoring 4.93 runs per game, which is equivalent to 799 runs for the season.

Putting in my projections and a line-up of

Brian Roberts
Nick Markakis
Melvin Mora
Aubrey Huff
Luke Scott
Adam Jones
Gregg Zaun
Felix Pie
Cesar Izturis

results in 5.07 runs per game. Dropping Zaun from 7th to 9th would up it to 5.10 runs per game (since his solid OBP skills would be well utilized ahead of the top of the order). That’s 821 and 826 runs, respectively.

The line-up I’ve heard Dave Trembley kicking around

Brian Roberts
Adam Jones
Nick Markakis
Aubrey Huff
Melvin Mora
Luke Scott
Gregg Zaun
Felix Pie
Cesar Izturis

would be 5.02 runs per game, or 813 runs on the season.

Now lets throw Matt Wieters in there instead of Zaun:

Brian Roberts
Nick Markakis
Melvin Mora
Aubrey Huff
Luke Scott
Adam Jones
Matt Wieters
Felix Pie
Cesar Izturis

That’s an increase to 5.223 runs per game (846 for the season) and would be even higher if Wieters was hitting higher in the line-up.

Back to Pinto:

“The Orioles may hold the record for actual lineup closest to the ideal lineup in terms of run production. If you look at the Lineup Analysis link above, the bottom lineup in the top 20 matches the Orioles lineup in five spots. One change that makes sense is moving Luke Scott ahead of Adam Jones. Jones, however, is still young, so I can believe he might exceed this projection, and that would certainly give the Orioles a boost.
Like last season, this is a good offensive team. The bottom of the lineup isn't great, but they do have enough near the top put some runs on the board. They need to find pitching in order to compete.”

They’re working on it David, they’re working on it. Read more ...