The Orioles apparently traded Ryan Freel to the Cubs for Joey Gathright, with each team paying the salary of the guy they were sending away (so unfortunately the O's didn't shed any payroll). Gathright is a career .262/.327/.303 hitter, but can at least go get 'em in the outfield. The deal at least frees the O's the headache that Freel seemed to be becoming, having complained of little playing time already. And it brings in a guy whose best skill isn't used on the baseball field:
As useless players go, I guess Slappy Joe (as he was nicknamed by Royals fans for his 38 extra-base hits in 1,311 career plate appearances) is OK.
Read more ...
Showing posts with label Ryan Freel. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ryan Freel. Show all posts
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Friday, March 13, 2009
Who Plays Where And How Much?
Going back to some discussion from a couple of days ago at the BORT regarding the value of bench players, I decided to look at an “optimal” (doesn’t take L/R splits into effect, among other things) allocation of talent on the team. I didn’t include every position, since it’s clear what going on at catcher (more Wieters = good, but we want him to stick around another year so he’s starting in the minors), shortstop (Izturis is the only real one that’s set to be on the team), and right field (occupied for the next six years, at least).
So that leaves Aubrey Huff, Ty Wigginton, Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora, Ryan Freel, Felix Pie, Luke Scott, and Adam Jones at fight it out for PA at 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, CF, and DH.
I included the following constraints:
725 PA for second-basemen, knowing that Roberts is the #1 player there and he bats at the top of the line-up
700 PA for the other positions
Max of 625 PA for Roberts and Huff
Max of 575 PA for Jones and Scott
Max of 550 PA for Mora and Pie
Max of 500 PA for Wigginton
Max of 400 PA for Freel
I input their offensive projections (no base-running included) and defensive projections at each of the available positions, and maximized total WAR.
The results:
Huff: 225 PA at 1B, 400 PA at DH, 1.6 WAR
Wigginton: 475 PA at 1B, 25 PA at 3B, 1.0 WAR
Roberts: 625 PA at 2B (duh), 3.6 WAR
Mora: 550 PA at 3B (duh), 1.7 WAR
Freel: 100 PA at 2B, 125 PA at 3B, 0.6 WAR
Pie: 425 PA in LF, 125 PA in CF, 1.7 WAR
Scott: 275 PA in LF, 300 PA at DH, 2.0 WAR
Jones: 575 PA in CF, 2.7 WAR
Total: 15 WAR
Freel is the only one that didn’t max out his PA. I guess this means that he should only play as a last resort (given these players) which makes sense. The only way Wiggy should DH is if Huff and/or Scott are actually better fielders at first than him (which is probably doubtful). Otherwise Ty takes first when lefties are on the mound with one of Huff, Scott, or Pie sitting (depending on a number of factors including the opposing pitcher (Randy Johnson => keep Pie away from the batter’s box), the O’s pitcher (flyball guy => get Pie out to left), injuries, and the like).
Are there occasions (such as the lefty opposing pitcher scenario) in which Freel should play left? Well, in his career Ryan has hit a little better against lefties than righties (.737 OPS vs. .727, with what appears to be a slightly higher wOBA). Felix Pie – in very limited at bats – has been destroyed by lefties (.106/.192/.106). Luke Scott, while not great, has held his own (.756 OPS vs. lefties, .874 vs. righties). That would indicate to me that the optimal line-ups would have Pie in LF, Scott at DH, and Huff at 1B (unless Luke can play a credible first, in which case they switch) against righties and Scott in LF, Huff at DH, and Wigginton at 1B against lefties.
In that respect, Wigginton isn’t taking at bats from Scott and Huff but from Pie. This makes the “platoon” even more effective, since the jump from Pie vs. lefties to Ty vs. lefties is huge. Wigginton actually has almost the exact reverse split of Scott, in that he’s put up a .758 OPS vs. righties and a .878 OPS vs. lefties (spooky). Having four guys with a continuum of different abilities is handy for filling the three spots. You have defense (Pie>Scott>>Wigginton>Huff), offense vs. lefties (Wigginton>>Scott=Huff>>Pie), and offense vs. righties (Scott=Huff>>Wigginton>Pie). If the team can leverage them to their maximum effectiveness (“putting them in a position to succeed”, I think managers call it) then they might be able to squeeze an extra win out of their overall talent levels.
Oh, and to answer the above question - no, Ryan Freel really shouldn’t play the outfield. I still have a feeling that he’s going to, though. Read more ...
So that leaves Aubrey Huff, Ty Wigginton, Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora, Ryan Freel, Felix Pie, Luke Scott, and Adam Jones at fight it out for PA at 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, CF, and DH.
I included the following constraints:
725 PA for second-basemen, knowing that Roberts is the #1 player there and he bats at the top of the line-up
700 PA for the other positions
Max of 625 PA for Roberts and Huff
Max of 575 PA for Jones and Scott
Max of 550 PA for Mora and Pie
Max of 500 PA for Wigginton
Max of 400 PA for Freel
I input their offensive projections (no base-running included) and defensive projections at each of the available positions, and maximized total WAR.
The results:
Huff: 225 PA at 1B, 400 PA at DH, 1.6 WAR
Wigginton: 475 PA at 1B, 25 PA at 3B, 1.0 WAR
Roberts: 625 PA at 2B (duh), 3.6 WAR
Mora: 550 PA at 3B (duh), 1.7 WAR
Freel: 100 PA at 2B, 125 PA at 3B, 0.6 WAR
Pie: 425 PA in LF, 125 PA in CF, 1.7 WAR
Scott: 275 PA in LF, 300 PA at DH, 2.0 WAR
Jones: 575 PA in CF, 2.7 WAR
Total: 15 WAR
Freel is the only one that didn’t max out his PA. I guess this means that he should only play as a last resort (given these players) which makes sense. The only way Wiggy should DH is if Huff and/or Scott are actually better fielders at first than him (which is probably doubtful). Otherwise Ty takes first when lefties are on the mound with one of Huff, Scott, or Pie sitting (depending on a number of factors including the opposing pitcher (Randy Johnson => keep Pie away from the batter’s box), the O’s pitcher (flyball guy => get Pie out to left), injuries, and the like).
Are there occasions (such as the lefty opposing pitcher scenario) in which Freel should play left? Well, in his career Ryan has hit a little better against lefties than righties (.737 OPS vs. .727, with what appears to be a slightly higher wOBA). Felix Pie – in very limited at bats – has been destroyed by lefties (.106/.192/.106). Luke Scott, while not great, has held his own (.756 OPS vs. lefties, .874 vs. righties). That would indicate to me that the optimal line-ups would have Pie in LF, Scott at DH, and Huff at 1B (unless Luke can play a credible first, in which case they switch) against righties and Scott in LF, Huff at DH, and Wigginton at 1B against lefties.
In that respect, Wigginton isn’t taking at bats from Scott and Huff but from Pie. This makes the “platoon” even more effective, since the jump from Pie vs. lefties to Ty vs. lefties is huge. Wigginton actually has almost the exact reverse split of Scott, in that he’s put up a .758 OPS vs. righties and a .878 OPS vs. lefties (spooky). Having four guys with a continuum of different abilities is handy for filling the three spots. You have defense (Pie>Scott>>Wigginton>Huff), offense vs. lefties (Wigginton>>Scott=Huff>>Pie), and offense vs. righties (Scott=Huff>>Wigginton>Pie). If the team can leverage them to their maximum effectiveness (“putting them in a position to succeed”, I think managers call it) then they might be able to squeeze an extra win out of their overall talent levels.
Oh, and to answer the above question - no, Ryan Freel really shouldn’t play the outfield. I still have a feeling that he’s going to, though. Read more ...
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Farney - 26th "Man"
The first major deal of the off-season for the O's has gone down, with "Razor" Ramon Hernandez being traded to the Reds for Ryan Freel and a couple of prospects (with the Birds throwing in $1 M).
The Reds get:
Ramon Hernandez, 32 year-old C, hit .257/.308/.406, 15 HR, .319 wOBA, 94 wOBA+ in 2008. He's making $8 M in the last year of his contract ($1 M buy-out for 2010 option) and is just barely a Type-A free agent right now. With a full-time job, he's a 1.5 WAR player (worth $7.6 M).
The Orioles get:
Ryan Freel, 32 year-old 2B/3B/OF, hit .298/.340/.359, .323 wOBA, 99 wOBA+ in 2008. He's making $4 M in the last year of his contract. Combining position adjustments at all of the position he'd play, I'd call him +0 on defense - maybe a shade above that. With an about average bat, Freel is an average player who provides some flexibility but is injury prone. With 350 PA, that's a 1 WAR player (worth $4.9 M).
Brandon Waring, 22 year-old third-baseman, hit .270/.346/.467, 20 HR, .361 wOBA, 110 wOBA+ in A-ball this year. He strikes out a lot (35.4% of the time) which is pretty bad for a guy his age at that level. Has some power, but isn't a particularly good defender at third. As a righty, he could form a pretty solid power-only platoon with Mike Costanzo at Triple-A one day.
Justin Turner, 23 year-old second-baseman, hit .289/.359/.432, 8 HR (in 280 AB), .356 wOBA, 104 wOBA+ in Double-A this year. Line-drive hitter with gap power with a quality glove. I like the OBP, but he's probably going to top out as a gritty utility guy. Then again, I never thought Dustin Pedroia would win an MVP award. If only Turner the range to play short.
My hope is that this is the first in a series of moves in which the O's spin Freel for something of reasonable value (another prospect like Turner) and sign a cheap catcher (like former Oriole Gregg Zaun; switch-hitter, league-average bat - seriously... wOBA+ of 97, 95, 104, 99, 100, 100 the last six years in the majors) to begin the year as the starter and give way to Matt Weiters after a month or so. Even if the keep Freel then it's a good move. The team frees up some money and gets a pair of C-level prospects. They free themselves of the headache of dealing with Ramon as a potential back-up, and get a decent utility player. Plus, as an extra added bonus to me, the team now has a guy who's scrappy, gritty, and plays the game the right way. Maybe they'll sign David Eckstein to play short, just to guarantee that I'll yell at the broadcasters during each game. Actually, it comes to my attention that the O's currently don't have a shortstop or a catcher on the 40-man roster. I imagine there are more moves to be made.
[Edit: Finding this out makes the trade even more worthwhile:
"Freel gained some notoriety in August of 2006 when The Dayton Daily News reported that Freel talks to an imaginary voice in his head named Farney. Said Freel: "He's a little guy who lives in my head who talks to me and I talk to him. That little midget in my head said, 'That was a great catch, Ryan,' I said, 'Hey, Farney, I don't know if that was you who really caught that ball, but that was pretty good if it was.' Everybody thinks I talk to myself, so I tell 'em I'm talking to Farney." Freel later said that Farney's name arose from a conversation with Reds trainer Mark Mann: "He actually made a comment like, 'How are the voices in your head?' We'd play around and finally this year he said, 'What's the guy's name?' I said, 'Let's call him Farney.' So now everybody's like, 'Run, Farney, run' or 'Let Farney hit today. You're not hitting very well.'" - Wikipedia] Read more ...
The Reds get:
Ramon Hernandez, 32 year-old C, hit .257/.308/.406, 15 HR, .319 wOBA, 94 wOBA+ in 2008. He's making $8 M in the last year of his contract ($1 M buy-out for 2010 option) and is just barely a Type-A free agent right now. With a full-time job, he's a 1.5 WAR player (worth $7.6 M).
The Orioles get:
Ryan Freel, 32 year-old 2B/3B/OF, hit .298/.340/.359, .323 wOBA, 99 wOBA+ in 2008. He's making $4 M in the last year of his contract. Combining position adjustments at all of the position he'd play, I'd call him +0 on defense - maybe a shade above that. With an about average bat, Freel is an average player who provides some flexibility but is injury prone. With 350 PA, that's a 1 WAR player (worth $4.9 M).
Brandon Waring, 22 year-old third-baseman, hit .270/.346/.467, 20 HR, .361 wOBA, 110 wOBA+ in A-ball this year. He strikes out a lot (35.4% of the time) which is pretty bad for a guy his age at that level. Has some power, but isn't a particularly good defender at third. As a righty, he could form a pretty solid power-only platoon with Mike Costanzo at Triple-A one day.
Justin Turner, 23 year-old second-baseman, hit .289/.359/.432, 8 HR (in 280 AB), .356 wOBA, 104 wOBA+ in Double-A this year. Line-drive hitter with gap power with a quality glove. I like the OBP, but he's probably going to top out as a gritty utility guy. Then again, I never thought Dustin Pedroia would win an MVP award. If only Turner the range to play short.
My hope is that this is the first in a series of moves in which the O's spin Freel for something of reasonable value (another prospect like Turner) and sign a cheap catcher (like former Oriole Gregg Zaun; switch-hitter, league-average bat - seriously... wOBA+ of 97, 95, 104, 99, 100, 100 the last six years in the majors) to begin the year as the starter and give way to Matt Weiters after a month or so. Even if the keep Freel then it's a good move. The team frees up some money and gets a pair of C-level prospects. They free themselves of the headache of dealing with Ramon as a potential back-up, and get a decent utility player. Plus, as an extra added bonus to me, the team now has a guy who's scrappy, gritty, and plays the game the right way. Maybe they'll sign David Eckstein to play short, just to guarantee that I'll yell at the broadcasters during each game. Actually, it comes to my attention that the O's currently don't have a shortstop or a catcher on the 40-man roster. I imagine there are more moves to be made.
[Edit: Finding this out makes the trade even more worthwhile:
"Freel gained some notoriety in August of 2006 when The Dayton Daily News reported that Freel talks to an imaginary voice in his head named Farney. Said Freel: "He's a little guy who lives in my head who talks to me and I talk to him. That little midget in my head said, 'That was a great catch, Ryan,' I said, 'Hey, Farney, I don't know if that was you who really caught that ball, but that was pretty good if it was.' Everybody thinks I talk to myself, so I tell 'em I'm talking to Farney." Freel later said that Farney's name arose from a conversation with Reds trainer Mark Mann: "He actually made a comment like, 'How are the voices in your head?' We'd play around and finally this year he said, 'What's the guy's name?' I said, 'Let's call him Farney.' So now everybody's like, 'Run, Farney, run' or 'Let Farney hit today. You're not hitting very well.'" - Wikipedia] Read more ...
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