O's-A's, Can't Dig Out Of Early Hole

After losing two of three in Seattle, the O's continue their West coast swing with a stop in Oakland. The A's were a popular pick for the AL West crown once the injuries beset the Angels before the season, but I was still a little hesitant (projecting 82 wins) because of the pitching staff. Well the A's (who are still one of my favorite teams in baseball) are sitting at 22-30 and in last place, and the young pitching staff hasn't worked out exactly as planned.

A's top starters:
Dalles Braden (age 25) - 3.63 ERA, 4.06 tRA
Dana Eveland (age 25) - 7.40 ERA, 5.01 tRA
Josh Outman (age 24) - 3.02 ERA, 5.15 tRA
Trevor Cahill (age 21) - 4.33 ERA, 6.54 tRA
Brett Anderson (age 21) - 4.97 ERA, 4.92 tRA
Total - 4.30 ERA, 5.13 tRA

O's current starters (+ Koji):
Jeremy Guthrie (age 30) - 4.86 ERA, 5.68 tRA
Koji Uehara (age 34) - 4.09 ERA, 3.36 tRA
Rich Hill (age 29) - 4.15 ERA, 3.21 tRA
Brad Bergesen (age 23) - 4.64 ERA, 5.92 tRA
David Hernandez (age 24) - 4.91 ERA, 4.17 tRA
Jason Berken (age 25) - 2.25 ERA, 4.81 tRA
Total - 4.41 ERA, 4.83 tRA

There are some smaller sample sizes in there (really of them, but some more than others) but that explains a lot of the A's struggles. The continued lack of offense doesn't help either though. Despite reworking the line-up by bringing in Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi, and Orlando Cabrera, the A's team wOBA has actually gone down from .313 to .311. And even taking into account the pitcher's park in which they play, their adjusted wOBA this year is still .318.

The O's offense has been far more impressive, though still with only a wOBA of .340 (which is about average). The A's counter that advantage with a better pen (3.75 tRA to the O's 4.86 tRA) and a better defense (+6.0 UZR to the O's -13.0). It's because of those kinds of things (though not directly) the two teams having pretty much the same records according to third order wins from Baseball Prospectus (.438 winning percentage for the A's and .435 for the Birds).

Tonight it'll be the teams' respective "aces" - Dallas Braden (who actually beat the O's in his major league debut) and Jeremy Guthrie - on the mound.

I was going to blog through the game, but by the time I turned it on it was already 6-0 Oakland and Guthrie had been knocked out of the game. Mark Hendrickson came in and pitched a few innings, giving up a three-run homer to Matt Holliday. Matt Albers pitches a couple scoreless innings. Alberto Castillo - called up to take the place of the recently released Jamie Walker - pitched a perfect seventh (with a K), and Brian Bass finished it off with a perfect eighth. Unfortunately, Luke Scott hit his 13th HR of the year (and his 8th in the last nine games) - a solo shot - and that's all the offense that O's got on the night. They lose the first game of the series 9-1. Read more ...

Bedard Beats O's, M's Were Still Fleeced

After a good pitching duel yesterday, with Rich Hill beating Jarrod Washburn 1-0, we've got another interesting match-up tonight. David Hernandez will make his second start of the season after getting the win against Detroit with 5.2 innings of one-run ball. Since the Pitch/FX for that start is strangely not available on FanGraphs, I'll talk about his opponent instead.

Erik Bedard didn't have a very season in 2008 after being traded to Seattle. He was injured, throwing only 81 IP with a 3.67 ERA, but his walks shot up (4.1 BB/9 after 2.8 BB/9 in 2007) and that lead to an only average 4.85 tRA. This year Bedard is back on track, with a 2.48 ERA. His strike-out rate hasn't risen back to 2007's likely career high (10.9 K/9), but it's a very good 8.9 K/9 and his control is the best it's ever been (2.5 BB/9). That's resulted in a 3.75 tRA.

Still, that trade was a very, very bad one for Seattle (though it did put the nail in Bill Bavasi's coffin, which is good for the long-term health of the team given the very capable front-office that's been assembled now). How bad was it? Well, even if you break it up into 2 trades, then they're still bad.

1) Erik Bedard for Adam Jones: Bedard was worth (from FanGraphs) 1.1 WAR ($4.7 M) in 2008 and is on pace for about 3.6 WAR (about $17 M) this year. That's 4.7 WAR (about $21.7 M) while being paid a total of $14.5 M - that's about $7.2 M in excess value. Adam Jones was worth 2.2 WAR ($10 M) last year and is at 1.9 WAR ($8.5 M) already this year. Not on pace for (that would be about 5.7 WAR) - already at. That's 4.1 WAR already in from Jones for $18.5 M in value while being paid less than a million dollars total. Without taking into account anyone the M's might acquire for Bedard in a trade or via a draft-pick if he leaves as a free-agent - or the remaining 4 years that Jones is under Orioles' control - the Mariners have already lost this one.

2) Erik Bedard for George Sherrill and Chris Tillman (lets even pretend that Kam "The Almighty" Mickolio (4.50 ERA in Triple-A but with 26 K's and 6 BB's in 20 IP) and Tony Butler (4.42 ERA in A-Ball with 44 K's and 11 BB's in 50 IP) won't ever contribute in the majors): Bedard has the aforementioned $7.2 M in projected excess value, and this time lets add in the expected excess value of the draft-picks Seattle would get if he's a Type-A free agent. Over at The Hardball Times they valued those picks at about $3-5 M, but given the success Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik had with the draft in Milwaukee, let's lean towards the high end of that range. So that knocks the excess value from Bedard up to about $12 M.

George Sherrill was worth about 0.4 WAR ($1.7 M) last year while being paid $1.0 M, and is on pace for about 0.9 WAR (about $4.3 M) this year while being paid $2.75 M. That's $2.25 M in excess value.

Victor Wang did some research on value of prospects, which I'm going to use. Combining the top prospect lists going into 2009 from Baseball America (#22), Kevin Goldstein (#16), Keith Law (#40), and Deric McKamey (somewhere around #25), Chris Tillman (2.13 ERA in Triple-A with 44 K's and 13 BB's in 38 IP) ranks about 24th in baseball and 9th amongst pitchers (he's about equal to Brian Matusz, by the way). Top 10 pitchers have an expected excess value of about $13.5 M. That's already more than what Bedard is projected to provide to Seattle, and then add Sherrill (and Mickolio/Butler if you want), and this is another pretty clear win for Baltimore - even if it isn't quit as lopsided as the Adam Jones one.

In fact - depending on your opinion of Mickolio and Butler, and the value Sherrill can bring to the O's in his remainging time in Baltimore (I'd say about zero total, with some positive times and some negative times - though more if they can trade him for something decent) - one could even say that the O's would have come out even or ahead if this was split into 3 trades (Jones, Tillman, and Sherrill/Mickolio/Butler). No reason to get greedy though. It was an absolute steal as it is.

And it'll feel even better if the O's can beat Bedard in this game (though I'm still a fan, and would be open to bringing him back after the season if he'll take a discount).

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Top 1:

• Brian Roberts ends a long at bat with a pop-up to short.
• Adam Jones grounds the first pitch he sees to third.
• Nick Markakis grounds the first pitch he sees to first. I think these guys forgot that being patient at the plate is what helped bring them so much success early in the season.
  

Bottom 1:

• Ichiro! bounces a groundball into the hole at short and beats out Izturis' throw. That sets a new M's franchise record for a hitting streak at 26 games, beating the previous record of 25 games held by Ichiro!.
• Russell Branyan (batting second?) grounds a single into right-field.
• Adrian Beltre pops a 95 mph fastball at the letters up, and Ty Wigginton (playing first) makes the catch in foul territory.
• Hey, it's the zombie of Ken Griffey Jr! Seriously though, it's really nice to see Junior back in an M's uniform - he can't catch up to a good fastball (fouls off 97, then misses 94 and 96), but things are just better in the universe with Griffey back in Seattle.
• Jose Lopez hits a flyball to deep left that should end the inning, but the ball goes off of Reimold's glove and two runs score. Both will be "earned".
  
• Yuniesky Betancourt pops out to second.
  

Top 2:

• Aubrey Huff flies out to center. Bedard looks good thus far, but not dominant - the O's can score a couple runs off of him I think.
• Melvin Mora ropes a double just fair down the left-field line.
• Wigginton grounds out to short.
• Mora steals third without a throw.
• Matt Wieters grounds out to third.
  

Bottom 2:

• Rob Johnson hits a lead-off double to left-center field.
• Endy Chavez drops down a sac bunt.
• Frankiln Gutierrez draws a walk.
  
• Ichiro! pops out to Wieters behind the plate.
• Branyan hits a monster shot just foul down the right-field down. He ends up popping out to Mora in shallow left-field to leave the runners on.
  

Top 3:

• Sharp 3-2 curveball gets Reimold looking.
• Izturis strikes out looking as well.
• Roberts lines out to third.
  

Bottom 3:

• Beltre grounds a single through the left-side.
• Griffey pops out to Mora.
• Lopez doubles into the left-field corner.
• Betancourt grounds out to third, but that will bring in another run. 3-0, M's.
• Johnson flies out to left to end the inning.
  

Top 4:

• Adam Jones with a long flyball to left (man, the ball really doesn't carry well in Seattle) - it goes off the wall in the corner for a lead-off double.
• Markakis draws a walk. WOOOOOO! I may be the only person that gets really excited when Nick walks - maybe it's because I spent so much effort trying to show that his great walk rate from last year wasn't a fluke.
  
• Huff flies out to deep center-field. That might have been gone in Cmaden Yards.
• Mora pops out.
• Wigginton lines out to right. The O's really needed to score there, and they couldn't come through.
  

Bottom 4:

• Ichiro! serves a two-out single to left.
• Hernandez strikes Branyan out swinging to end the inning.
  

Top 5:

• Wieters lines a single into left-center.
• Fastball on the inside corner gets Reimold looking.
• Izturis bounces to short, though the M's can only get the force at second.
• After a steal of second by Cesar, Roberts strikes out swinging at a high fastball.
  

Bottom 5:

• Beltre singles to left-field.
• Griffey doubles over Jones' head in center-field. It was on a 92 mph fastball down in the zone, and he just dropped the head of the bat on it. I guess after striking him out and touching 97 in the first, Hernandez is trying to conserve some energy now and stay in the game long enough for his teammates to put some runs on the board for him. The O's have Mark Hendrickson is warming up in the pen.
  
• Lopez grounds out to short, which brings in the fourth Seattle run.
• Betancourt flies out to center.
• Johnson grounds up the middle, but Izturis ranges across the bag to get the ball and throw him out.
  

Top 6:

• High fastball gets Jones swinging.
• Markakis grounds out to short.
• Absurd curveball gets Huff looking. It started right at him and broke over the heart of the plate.
  

Bottom 6:

• Wigginton dives/falls down to snag a grounder by Chavez and takes it to the bag himself for the out.
• Gutierrez singles to right-center. That'll be the last batter Hernandez faces today, with Hendrickson coming in.
• Ichiro! grounds to short with Izturis getting just the force at second.
• Branyan walks on four pitches.
• Beltre singles to right to bring in Ichiro!, but Wigginton cuts off Markakis' throw home and fires to third to get Branyan to end the inning. Run counts though, and it's 5-0.
  

Top 7:

• Mora swings through a fastball for Bedard's 8th K.
• Wigginton singles to left.
• Wieters, with a patient at bat, draws the first walk of his career.
• Reimold battles through a tough plate appearance - fouling off several pitches - before drawing a walk himself.
• We've decided here that if Izturis hits a grand slam we're going to go get a beer. It won't be off of Bedard though, with Sean White coming in (12 BB and 11 K in 25.2 IP this year - those aren't good numbers). And it won't be Izturis either, with Luke Scott coming up to pinch-hit against the right-hander. Tired Bedard vs. Izturis or Sean White vs. Scott? Tough call, but I think I would have stuck with Erik.
  
• Scott grounds to third, but Branyan's only play is at first. That gets the O's on the board.
• Roberts grounds up the middle, but White snags it and throws him out. 5-1, M's.
  

Bottom 7:

• Griffey doubles deep into the left-field corner.
• Lopez grounds out to first, but that advances Junior to third.
• Matt Albers will take over on the mound for the O's.
• Betancourt grounds out to third, with Mora looking Griffey back to the bag.
• Gutierrez walks.
• Nice tailing away from Chavez gets him swinging.
  

Top 8:

• Jones grounds a single through the right side.
• Markakis hits a groundball to second, with Lopez taking it to second himself and getting taken out by a Jones' slide. His throw to first was way high, and Nick is safe.
• Huff hits another long flyball to the track in center that Gutierrez gets to. I'm not a big fan of "arena baseball", but playing in Seattle is frustrating.
• Mora pops out to end the inning.
  

Bottom 8:

• Albers gives up a lead-off single and gets replaced by Jamie Walker on the mound.
• Ichiro! flies out to center.
• Branyan deep and gone to right. 7-1, Seattle. Walker has now given up 3 HR to left-handed batters in 4.2 IP this year.
• Beltre flies out to center.
  
• Make that 4 HR in 5 IP to lefties. Ken Griffey Jr. hits #617 for his career. It was a breaking ball down and away, and Junior went out and hooked it.
• Lopez doubles to deep center-field. Walker isn't fooling anybody, and if Andy McPhail came down to the field right now to cut Jamie then I'd be A-OK with it.
• Betancourt grounds out to third.
  

Top 9:

• Felix Pie will pinch-hit against Denny Stark. Nice piece of hitting by Pie as he lines a double off the chalk down the left-field line. I still have faith in him to be a quality major leaguer, even if he'll only get a real chance in Baltimore if an injury occurs at this point. And 88 at bats does not a "real chance" make, though his PrOPS line of .249/.318/.388 isn't exaclty a confidence booster.
  
• Wieters bounces out to second. His timing looks just a little bit off at the plate.
• Robert Andino (who came in to play shor when Scott hit for Izturis) flies out to right to score Pie.
• Luke grounds out to second to end the game.
  

David Hernandez showed some impressive stuff, throwing a very hard "rising" fastball (92-97 mph, though without much run in on right-handed batters), a nice change-up that he didn't throw for strikes as much as one would like, and a sharp slider. The general line on him has been that he posted good strike-out numbers in the minors (with iffy control) but that scouts didn't like him very much as a potential quality major league starter. If he can keep the walks down, I don't see any reason he can't hang around as a #4 starter. His line doesn't look pretty (5.1 IP, 10 H, 5 R, 1 BB, 2 K), but two of those runs could easily been kept off the board if Reimold had taken a normal route to a flyball in the first inning. When you give up a lot of balls in play, sometimes the hits will fall in. Unfortunately for Hernandez, Erik Bedard was very effective for Seattle. The O's had there chances, but couldn't take advantage and lose 8-2.
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O's-M's, Pitching Rules As O's Eek Out 1-0 Win

The O's dropped the last two games of their series with Detroit after being on a little bit of a roll. They'll try to get back in the win column out on the West coast against the 24-27 Seattle Mariners.

It'll be a battle of left-handers with Rich Hill (6.14 ERA, 4.13 tRA) facing off against Jarrod Washburn (3.45 ERA, 4.55 tRA). Hill was largely ineffective in his last start against Toronto, giving up 7 runs in 3.1 IP. For him, success comes when he has some command of his fastball. Thus far this season, he's thrown only 43% of his pitches in the zone. That hasn't bitten him too badly (though a 5.5 BB/9 is awful) because hitters are still chasing pitches out of the zone (swinging at 22.4% of them, compared to 24.5% as the league average). If they stop doing that though - like they did last year when it was just 10.8% - then Hill may be in a lot more trouble. The curveball is great, but the fastball is down even more velocity-wise to 87.5 mph on average (88.3 mph last year, and 89.4 the year before) and with some control his ceiling is likely that of a #3/4 starter. Now that's still a big addition for the O's staffs of late, but with the young pitchers coming up he may not be able to keep his job for too much longer without showing some improvement somewhere.

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Top 1:

• Adam Jones fouls off a few pitches and draws a one-out walk.
• He ends the inning still at first though, as Nick Markakis and Aubrey Huff both fly out.
  

Bottom 1:

• Ichiro (!) starts the game with a double to left-field, and then takes third as Nolan Reimold's throw in goes off-line.
  
• Yuniesky Betancourt pops out to second.
• Hill elevates a fastball to the shoulders, and Adrain Beltre helps him out by weakly swinging and missing for the K.
• Mike Sweeney pops out to first. Nice job by Hill to leave the runner at third stranded.
  
• 
  

Top 2:

• With one out, the most recent Player of the Week - Luke Scott - lines a single off the wall in right-field.
• Cut fastball down and in gets Matt Wieters swinging.
• Reimold singles through the right-side.
• Cesar Izturis bounces out to second to end the inning.
  

Bottom 2:

• Russell Branyan walks. Branyan has finally been given a shot to play full-time, and boy is he taking advantage of it (.323/.413/.614, 11 HR, .433 wOBA coming into the game).
• Jose Lopez grounds to second for an easy double play.
• Wladimir Balentien walks on four pitches. Hill's not showing any improvement in fastball command thus far, and the curve isn't falling in for strikes much either.
• He strikes out Rob Johnson on three pitches though.
  

Top 3:

• Markakis grounds to short, but Betancourt throws the ball away and he's safe at first with two down. Nick hit .381/.460/.600 in April and .240/281/.438 in May. The drop in average; fine. Balls don't fall in and all that - BABIP fluctuations - it happens. It's the drop in walk to strike-out ratio from 13-13 to 6-13 that's concerning. He's getting less balls thrown in the zone to him, but he's swinging less at those and more at pitches out of the zone. And his fielding out in right has been awful. Add it all up and he's only been about a replacement level player thus far (just 0.1 WAR or so). Very disappointing, though it has to pick up.
• Oh, and Huff pops out to end the inning.
  

Bottom 3:

• Franklin Gutierrez walks on four pitches. Hill's lucky the M's don't have a particularly good offense.
• Ichiro (!) grounds to second, but the can only get the force at second.
• Betancourt singles to left.
• Usually Hill can make up for his lack of fastball command by throwing curveballs in the zone. Tonight though, a lot of those are hanging up and out of the zone themselves.
• Beltre pops out, with Huff reaching over the railing into the M's dugout to make the catch.
• Sharp curve/slider gets Sweeney, as he's not able to check his swing. Again Hill gets himself into - and then out of - trouble.
  

Top 4:

• 1-2-3 go the O's.
  

Bottom 4:

• 1-2-3 go the M's. A couple groundouts and a K, with 9 of 13 pitches classified as strikes (only 26 of 50 in the first three innings).
  

Top 5:

• Reimold lines a single to left.
• Very quick turn of the double play off an Izturis grounder to second.
• Roberts strikes out.
  

Bottom 5:

• Another 1-2-3 inning for Hill (all 9 pitches were strikes).
  

Top 6:

• Adam Jones breaks his bat on a foul ball, and then uses the new one to line a double over the left-fielders head. The ball beat Jones to second, but it was a bit off-line and Adam just got in there.
• Markakis lines a single to center and the O's have runners on the corners.
• Huff hits a flyball to deep center to bring in Jones. Nick tags up himself and goes to second, just getting in ahead of the tag with a nice slide. O's up 1-0.
• Mora flies out to right.
• Scott flies out to the track in right.
  

Bottom 6:

• Fastball on the inside corner gets Beltre looking for the second out of the sixth.
• Nasty 69 mph curveball swung on and missed for strike two. That thing could get people to fall over trying to get it. Sweeney flies out to end the inning.
• Hill's retired 11 in a row.
  

Top 7:

• Wieters drives a 3-2 pitch into deep center-field, but Gutierrez is able to just run it down. It didn't even look like he hit it that hard, but the ball traveled about 400 ft.
• Reimold flies out to short right.
• Izturis singles up the middle.
• Roberts flies out to right.
  

Bottom 7:

• Nice curveball gets Branyan swinging. The count was 3-2, but Hill has shown that he'll throw the hook in any count.
• Lopez pops out to Wieters.
• Fastball gets Baletnien looking.
  

Top 8:

• Chris Jakubauskas in for Washburn, who pitched pretty well and definitely used the big outfield to his advantage.
• Markakis draws a one-out walk. That's his first base on balls since May 17th. Yikes.
• Amazing play by Branyan to make a diving stop of a Huff grounder, throw to second for the force, and then get back to the bag to catch the relay. That's a Web Gem right there.
  

Bottom 8:

• Jim Johnson will come in to hold the 1-0 lead.
• 97 mph fastball boring down and in gets Rob Johnson swinging.
• Another one at 93 gets Gutierrez swinging.
• Ichiro flies out to left.
  

Top 9:

• Mora flies out to right.
• Scott strikes out looking.
• Wieters, batting left-handed for the first time today, strikes out looking as well. Hey, but at least he called a good game.
  

Bottom 9:

• George Sherrill in for the save.
• Betancourt flies out to deep center.
• Beltre flies out to deep center.
• Sweeney flies out to deep right.
  

Rich Hill started out shaky, but he really settled down and pitched well (7IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 7 K). O's pitchers retired the last 20 hitters of the game, and the offense was able to scratch out one run for the win. In the post-game interview, Adam Jones said he and Nick Markakis don't remember the last time the O's won 1-0, and I have to agree. (It was 2007 apparently.) Great win for the Birds, and for Hill after his struggles last time out.
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Jackson Beats Berken In Pitchers' Duel

After the last couple of games with Matt Wieters behind the plate, today Gregg Zaun (who I still like, and I think could be a very effective back-up) will be out there with Wieters DH'ing. At first I thought that Wieters was sitting, and was a little less excited to watch the game. WIth the way Luke Scott has been hitting, he's staying in the line-up and playing left with Nolan Reimold getting the day off. Ty Wigginton and Robert Andino are giving Melvin Mora and Cesar Izturis some rest as well.

The O's are finishing up their four-game series with the Tigers having already guaranteed themselves at least a split. Jason Berken goes for the Birds - it's his second start and the first time I'll be seeing him pitch - against Edwin Jackson, who has found some command (2.3 BB/9 this year, improving from 3.8, 4.9, and 6.2 BB/9 the past three years) and much improves results (2.58 ERA, 3.49 FIP)

• Both pitchers record quick first innings.
• Berken is a pretty small right-hander. He's listed at 6'0", but there's no way that's accurate. He gets OK movement on his low-90's fastball, but does a nice job pounding the zone and mixing his pitches. The third time throught the line-up probably won't be very pretty though, as they'll already have seen everything he has to offer.
• After a quiet first three innings, Curtis Granderson takes Berken deep in the 4th to give the Tigers a 1-0 lead.
• Nick Markakis picks up the O's first hit, lining a single to left.
• Jackson is just mowing these O's hitters down. Low to mid 90's fastball and a sharp slider - both of which he's shown excellent control over. With Zumaya waiting in the pen jsut in case.
• Berken matched him almost pitch for pitch, and will be taken out for Danys Baez in the eighth. Jason's final line was 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 2 K, and though he didn't look particularly impressive he got the job done. Now he just needs some offense.
• Baez gives up a walk and a double to make it 2-0 Detroit. That seems like a huge lead today.
• Wigginton leads off the 8th with a ground-rule double into left-center field. O's can't get him in though.
  
• Mark Hendrickson gets some work in the ninth and also gives up a run on a walk and a single.
• Adam Jones draws a two-out walk against closer Fernando Rodney, but Markakis grounds back to the mound to end the game.
• Two hits and two walks is all the O's get on the day, as the lose once agian on a Sunday 3-0. It's off to the West coast now.
  

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O's Fall To Hard Throwing Tigers

Not a full live blog today, but just some observations about the O's-Tigers game:

• Justin Verlander throwing 98 mph effortlessly is absurd. And then he mixes in a big hook. Filthy.
• Guthrie throws one of the best sliders I've seen from him this year to strike Dane Sardinha swinging. Then he gives up a home run to Clete Thomas, of all people. It's been an up and down season for Guts (mostly down thus far).
• Nick Markakis has the first nice swing I've seen from him in a while, and lines a double into the left-field corner. He hasn't looked good recently - and the walks are down - but maybe he's snapping out of it a bit.
• Matt Wieters with his first major league hit, driving a 96 mph fastball over Curtis Granderson's head in dead-center for a triple. How many catchers have had there first hit be a triple?
• And he scores his first run as Nolan Reimold singles up the middle to cut Detroit's lead to 3-1.
• The O's load the bases with no outs, but Adam Jones grounds into a double play (pitcher to home to first) and Markakis strikes out on three pitches.
• Luke Scott hits a two-run homer to tie the game. That's 6 home runs in 4 days for Luuuuke.
• Matt Wieters battles through a tough at bat - fouling off several 95-99 mph fastballs - before lining a ground-rule double into right-center field. After the 0-4 yesterday, he's showing why people were so excited for him in today's game.
• Clete Thomas homers off of Matt Albers. Clete Thomas has a two home run game. Clete Thomas has a two home run game!
• The O's line-up faced Verlander touching 99, Ryan Perry touching 97, Joel Zumaya touching 101, and Fernando Rodney touching 97. Ridiculous.
• Guthrie pitched pretty well (6 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 10 K, but 2 HR), but Matt Albers and Jamie Walker were ineffective out of the pen.
• The O's winning streak ends, as they fall 6-3.

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Wieters Allows Teammates To Shine

It may have been Matt Wieters day at the yard on account of his much anticipated debut, but the game belonged to starter Brad Bergesen and Luke Scott. Bergesen worked quickly (game time 2 hours 12 minutes) and kept the ball down, allowing him to get into the ninth before being removed after giving up a couple hits (Jim Johnson closed it out). Berg's final line was 8 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 3 K, and he looked as good as I've seen him in the majors thus far. Luke Scott provided the offense, continuing his tear since coming off the DL with two home runs - including a grand slam. That gives him 5 HR in his three games and 12 RBI, and he's even homered for the cycle with a couple of solo shots, a two-run homer, a three-run homer, and now a grand slam. He's as locked in as I think I've ever seen a player. Oh, and Wieters went 0-4. But he called a good game, apparently! Read more ...

O's-Tigers, Another Rookie Pitcher Wins In Debut

Today I've been interviewed by Liz Farmer of the Daily Record, and Nestor Aparicio of WNST 1570 AM radio... about MattWietersFacts.com. A nice end to a crazy day is watching David Hernandez make his major league debut for the O's.

I'll let Dave Cameron of FanGraphs take care of the intro, but also note that Chris Ray (9.39 ERA) was sent down to the minors today:

"As a travel Thursday, there aren’t a ton of major league games on the schedule for tonight. However, there is one that should be worth watching, and it will take place in Baltimore, where the Tigers are in town to take on the Orioles. Making his major league debut, David Hernandez will be starting for the O’s.

Hernandez is one of those divisive prospects who puts up numbers that dwarf his physical abilities. His numbers, especially the strikeout rates, are ridiculous. In 2007, he posted a 10.4 K/9 in High-A ball. Last year, he put up a 10.6 K/9 in Double-A. This year, he’s up to 12.46 K/9 in Triple-A. He’s consistently been at the top of the league leaderboards in strikeouts at every rung of the ladder.

However, the reaction from scouts has been relatively mild. He was a 16th round pick in 2005, and even with his minor league dominance, Baseball America left him out of the Orioles Top 10 prospects over the winter. The concerns have mostly centered around questionable command of a four seam fastball and a lack of a third pitch. His slider is definitely an out pitch, and it’s the reason for his crazy strikeout rate, but heavy reliance on a breaking ball will get scouts talking bullpen very quickly.

In some ways, the Hernandez discussions are similar to the ones that surrounded Yusmeiro Petit as he rose through the minor leagues. He also ran up big numbers with stuff that didn’t match it, and created a divide between the statistical and scouting communities. The jury may still be out on Petit to some degree, but clearly, the scouts were more correct about his abilities than the numbers were. However, a good chunk of Petit’s dominance came in the low minors, and his strikeout rates decrease as he faced harder competition. Hernandez’s numbers have done the exact opposite.

It’s worth noting that Hernandez has significantly better velocity than Petit as well, sitting 90-93 on a regular basis. He’s not a low velocity guy who is just tricking minor leaguers with junk. He’s got a major league fastball and a knockout slider. He’s not John Stephens.

I’m really looking forward to seeing Hernandez pitch against big leaguers, and the Pitch F/x data should be pretty fun to look at as well. If you’re looking for some entertaining baseball tonight, check out the O’s-Tigers, and see what side of the Hernandez fence you come down on."

And the top four O's pitching prospects are still in the minors. Things should be looking up.

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Top 1:

• Not a great start, as Hernandez walks Clete Thomas.
• Placido Polanco flies out to center.
• Hit-and-run bouncer by Magglio Ordonez goes into right for a single to put runners on the corners.
• 95 mph fastball just off the outside corner gets Miguel Cabrera swinging. Very nice pitch.
• Hernandez throws his second nice change-up for a strike - this one to Curtis Granderson. Unfortunately he losses Grandy on his second walk.
• Brandon Inge hits a long line-drive to left, but Reimold makes the catch to leave the bases loaded.
  

Bottom 1:

• Brian Roberts lines a single into right-field.
• Adam Jones hits a long flyball - just foul - down the left-field line. Then he gets his bat broken and grounds into a double play.
• Curveball on the outside corner gets Nick Markakis looking. Nick looks like he's not seeing the ball very well at the plate right now. Seems like he's behind in the count a lot, and his walks are down.

Top 2:

• Hernandez blows three straight fastballs by Jeff Larish to strike him out.
• Gerald Laird grounds out to third.
• Ramon Santiago grounds out to first. Hernandez's fastball explodes out of his hand, and he's shown a decent change. Exciting times at the yard.
  

Bottom 2:

• Aubrey Huff draws a lead-off walk.
• Melvin Mora grounds into a double play.
• Second game in a row Luke Scott hits a home run to center-field in his first at bat. This one was a solo shot, and it gives the O's a 1-0 lead.
• Nolan Reimold chases a slider for the K.
  

Top 3:

• Thomas pops out to second.
• Polanco flies out to right-field.
• Ordonez flies out to center. Looks like Hernandez has settled down a little.
  

Bottom 3:

• Cesar Izturis singles to left. No double play, please.
• Roberts flies out to short left-field.
• Jones strikes out swinging at a slider low out of the zone.
  

Top 4:

• Cabrera grounds out to short.
  
• Granderson with a broken bat bloop into left for a single.
• Inge grounds to third, with Mora starting the inning-ending double play. Nice reversal there, as Inge started both of Detroit's.
  

Bottom 4:

• Markakis grounds out to second.
• Huff gets hit on the leg with an errant breaking-ball. Thankfully he had his shin-guard on.
• Broken play, as Huff takes off and Mora takes a pitch. Obviously Aubrey is dead meat, and gets tagged out attempting to get back to first.
• Mora lines a single up the middle.
• Scott flies out to deep right.
  

Top 5:

• Larish lines a double into right-field after just checking his swing on a nice slider.
• Laird walks on a pitch that was almost certainly in the strike-zone.
  
• Santiago drops a two-strike bunt down, but it comes right back to Hernandez who gets the force at third.
• Thomas singles up the middle to tie the game. Jones threw to third in time to get Santiago, but Mora couldn't handle it.
• Polanco gets jammed and pops out to Mora in foul territory.
• Gary Thorne has mixed up sliders and fastballs at least five times already in this game - it's mildly irritating.
• Ordonez flies out to center to end the inning.
  

Bottom 5:

• Nolan Reimold deep and gone to left-field. Hanging slider in the middle of the plate and he crushed it. His fifth home run of the year gives the O's back the lead.
• Zaun flies out to center.
• Izturis lines a single just in front of a sliding Granderson in center.
• Roberts lines a single to right-center.
• Jones flies out to right.
• Markakis flies out to left.
  

Top 6:

• Rising fastball at the shoulders gets Cabrera swinging.
• Granderson pulls a single through the right side. He steals second and moves to third as Roberts can't handle the bounce on the throw.
• Inge walks.
• Larish pops out to Mora.
• That's it for David Hernandez. With runners on the corners and two outs Dave Trembley will go to Matt Albers.
• Laird walks to load the bases.
• Fastball on the inside corner gets Santiago looking. That leaves the bases loaded, and keeps Hernandez in line for a win.
  

Bottom 6:

• Huff lines a double into right-center.
• Mora singles to right. Ordonez fakes Huff out that he was going to make the catch, but Huff is still able to just make it to third despite returning to the bag at second.
• Scott flies out to left, but it's too shallow to score Huff.
• Reimold grounds to third, with Inge making a sliding stop and starting his third double play of the game. O's get runners on but fail to score again.
  

Top 7:

• Thomas walks on five pitches.
• Polanco lays down a sac bunt to move Thomas to second.
• Magglio grounds out to first.
• Jim Johnson will come in from the pen to face Cabrera.
• Miggy pops the first pitch up to Roberts to end the inning.
  

Bottom 7:

• Zaun grounds to second.
• Izturis flies out to left.
• Roberts flies out to deep left-center.
  

Top 8:

• Granderson can't check his swing on a high fastball.
• Inge grounds to third, but Mora throws the ball away. Luckily it stayed nearby and kept Inge at first.
• Larish draws a walk.
• Laird grounds to third, with Mora handling the tricky hop and starting the inning-ending double play. All kinds of baserunners getting erased today.
  

Bottom 8:

• Jones singles through the left side.
• Markakis flies out to center.
• Huff draws a walk.
• Mora stikes out looking.
• Luke Scott does it again. A three-run bomb into the bullpen in left-center extends the O's lead to 5-1.
• Reimold pops out to end the inning.
  

Top 9:

• Not a save situation, but George Sherrill still coming in.
• Easy 1-2-3 inning.
  

Solid debut from David Hernandez (5.2 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 3 K). He showed better stuff than I was expecting, but the control wasn't particularly good. Hernandez did his job though, and the bullpen (3.3 hitless innings) and the offense (Reimold hit a HR, and Scott hit two and drove in four) backed him up. The O's have won 6 of 7 and moved their season mark to 22-26 (a 74 win pace). The rotation now has someone to watch every day, with Guthrie, Hill, Bergesen, Berken, and Hernandez all possibly being pieces for the future (unlike the Eaton's of the world).
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Matt Wieters Facts Day

Friday is going to be Matt Wieters Day at Camden Yards, but that doesn't mean the excitement is going to stop.

That's because next month - Saturday, June 27th - we're going to have Matt Wieters Facts Day. The O's are hosting the Washington Nationals, and the sections up top behind home plate (330-340, focusing on 334-336) will be filled with people wearing their favorite Matt Wieters Facts shirt and cheering on the future Hall of Famer. So go and get your tickets now, and we'll see you at the Yard!

And you can help organize with friends and keep up to date on news by joining Matt Wieters facts on Facebook. Read more ...

O's Bring Out Brooms In Exciting Fashion Against Jays

Earlier this year the O's went up to Toronto and got swept. This week they returned the favor.

Game one was all about Jeremy Guthrie (hopefully) getting back on track with his 7 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K performance. Brian Roberts double and tripled - and scored twice - as the O's went on to win 4-1.

Game two was the major league debut of 25 year-old right-hander Jason Berken, who picked up the win in pitching 5 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 3 K. His Pitch/FX from FanGraphs:


He threw harder than I would have expected with an average fastball velocity of 92.2 mph. It was about average movement wise, though had a little extra sink. Those blue dots (FT) are pitches classified as two-seamers, though they appear to mostly be slightly slower fastballs (90.8 mph). Berken threw a good number of change-ups, and they had slightly above average movement as well (running in on right-handed batters). It looks like he has two breaking-balls; a slightly harder slider that moves more side-to-side and a slightly slower curveball with below average movement. He seemed to mix his pitches pretty well (threw at least 7 of each) and pounded the zone (60% of his pitches, and 66.7% of first pitches were strikes).

Berken was never a big strike-out guy, but he showed good control in the minors (2.1 BB/9 this year in Triple-A, 2.35 BB/9 last year in Double-A) and avoided the home run ball (0.35 HR/9 and 0.56 HR/9), which lead to good FIP numbers (3.16 and 3.23). Looks like a potentially decent #5 starter to me.

The O's offense backed Berken up with Huff, Jones, and Reimold all going yard, leading to a 7-2 victory.

Game three was an exciting one, and I was there to see it. It didn't look good with Roy Halladay on the hill for the Jays, but the O's didn't give up.

Rich Hill was the Baltimore starter, and he just didn't have his command at all today. The six-run fourth really did him in, as he was only able to go 3.1 IP with 6 H, 7 R (6 ER), 3 BB, 3 K. Things looked pretty bleak as Doc Halladay was solid after giving up a two-run homer to Luke Scott in the second (welcome back off the DL, Luke), and the Jays lead 8-3 going into the eighth.

With 102 pitches thrown in the game, Toronto went to Jesse Carlson from their pretty good pen. Single-single-walk loaded the bases for Felix Pie (who already had a hit on the day and threw a runner out at the plate in the first). Since Carlson is a lefty, Dave Trembley went to his bench for pinch-hitter Nolan Reimold, who promptly struck out on three pitches. Chad Moeller - possibly making his last start for the O's with the Friday arrival of Matt Wieters - was plunked to force in a run. Robert Andino picked up his fourth hit of the day (!) with an RBI single. (That ended Carlson's lousy day.) Closer Scott Downs came in and gave up a sac fly to Brian Roberts. And then an RBI single to Adam Jones (which was his third hit of the day, though the first two may have been due to a freindly scorer). 8-7 now, with a struggling Nick Markakis coming to the plate. And in the clutch situation, Nick came through with a double to right to tie the game. Unfortuantely Jones was easily thrown out at home on the play (Alex Rios has quite an arm). Halladay leaves, and the O's put up 5 to tie things up. Bet someone's going to be questioning that decision.

The O's threatened in the ninth, but Reimold and pinch-hitter Gregg Zaun both struck out with two on and one out. To extra innings!

Danys Baez came out for his third inning in the 11th after a pair fo quick three-up three-down frames, and was tagged by a two-run homer by Aaron Hill. O's down 10-8, and former Bird BJ Ryan coming out for the save opportunity.

Markakis greeted him with a single, and after a Huff pop-out Ryan (who was only throwing 84-86) was removed from the game. Melvin Mora singled off of new pitcher Brian Wolfe, and then Luke Scott did the same to drive in a run. With runners on the corners and one out, Nolan Reimold came up after having already K'ed twice to leave 5 men on base. 1-1 count... line-drive to deep left, and it's into the first row of seats. Three-run homer, and the O's win 12-10! You know what that means...

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O's-Nationals, The Sweep Gets Dunn In

The O's go for the sweep against the Nationals today, with the Birds actually countering the Washington youngster on the mound - Shairon Martis - with one of their own in Brad Bergesen. Martis is 5-0 but has a 4.53 ERA and a 4.63 tRA, while Bergesen is 1-2 with a 5.35 ERA, a 5.29 FIP, and a 6.20 tRA. Despite those high runs allowed figures, this game has a good chance of following the last two as a pitching duel.

Bergesen's control has been pretty good (3.2 BB/9) but not quite as good as I would have expected and not nearly good enough to make up for his lack of strike-outs (4.3 K/9). He's getting a lot of groundballs (56%) but is still giving up 1.34 HR/9.

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Top 1:

• Brian Roberts swings at the first pitch of the game and flies out to left.
• Adam Jones flies out to left-center.
• Nick Markakis hits a long flyball to right, but Austin Kearns makes a jumping catch and is able to hang onto the ball as he crashes into the wall.
  

Bottom 1:

• Willie Harris doubles into the right-field corner.
• Christian Guzman grounds out to second, moving Harris over to third.
• Ryan Zimmerman hits a blooper towards second, with Roberts laying out to make the catch.
• Adam Dunn grounds out to first. Nice job by Bergesen to keep the Nationals off the board despite the lead-off double.
  

Top 2:

• Aubrey Huff lines a double off the wall in right - it was about a foot from clearing the fence for a home run.
• Ty Wigginton pops out to Adam Dunn in the foul territory near first-base, and Huff shows off his blazing speed by tagging up and taking third.
• Nolan Reimold strikes out looking. He started off to first-base since the 3-2 fastball was outside, but the ump rung him up.
• Chad Moeller hits a groundball up the middle, but Guzman is able to get to it and throw him out. Another lead-off double wasted.
  

Bottom 2:

• Josh Willingham grounds a single up the middle.
• Belliard strikes out swinging.
• Kearns grounds into a double play.
  

Top 3:

• Robert Andino flies out.
• Brad Bergesen hits the first pitch he sees in major league baseball back through the box for a single.
• Roberts draws a walk.
• Jones flies out to short right-center.
• Markakis drives a flyball to deep left-center, and nobody's going to rob him this time. The ball bounces off the wall and Nick is in with a two-run triple.
• Huff grounds out to second to end the inning, but the O's have taken a 2-0 lead.
  

Bottom 3:

• Wil Nieves hits a slow bouncer to the left side, with Wigginton charging to his left to scoop it and make the throw for the out.
• Martis grounds out to short.
  
• Harris squares around to bunt, and Bergesen's pitch bores down and in and hits him in the shin.
• Guzman strikes out swinging on a good slider inside under is hands.
  

Top 4:

• Wigginton flies out to left.
• Reimold pops out.
  
• Moeller hits a flyball to deep left - Willingham keeps going back on it, but it goes over his head and Chad is in with a double.
• Andino gets the intentional walk to bring Bergesen up.
• Another groundball up the middle, but Guzman gets to this one. The throw pulls Dunn off the bag though, and everybody's safe.
• Roberts flies out to left to leave the bases loaded.
  

Bottom 4:

• Zimmerman hits a high flyball to the track in center, but Jones is there to make the catch.
• Dunn pops out to short, though it's Wigginton making the catch with the infield shift they had on.
• Willingham send Jones back to the wall in center again, but the batter is retired.
  

Top 5:

• Jones gets hit on the hand and jogs off to first-base. He looks OK though.
• Adam gets thrown out stealing second, but the umpire misses the call. Markakis grounds sharply to Dunn, moving Jones to third.
• Huff hits a groundball through a drawn-in infield to extend the lead to 3-0.
• Wigginton pops out to first.
• Reimold pops out to short.
  

Bottom 5:

• Belliard flies out to deep center.
• Kearns drops a double just fair down the right-field line.
• Nieves lines a double down the first-base to get the Nationals on the board.
• Martis lines a single to center to make it 3-2. Jones made a string throw to the plate, but Moeller couldn't hang on to it.
• Harris flies out to left.
• Guzman grounds out to second to end the inning.
  

Top 6:

• Moeller grounds out to third.
• Andino strikes out.
• Bergesen is finally retired, on a groundball to third.
  

Bottom 6:

• Zimmerman lines a single into left-field.
• Dunn hits a flyball to deep center, and Jones won't be able to get to this one. He looks up as it clears the fence and gives the Nationals a 4-3 lead.
• Willingham grounds out to short.
• Belliard grounds to short.
• Kearns singles into short right-center.
• Chris Ray in fromthe pen to face Nieves, and he ends the inning with a groundout back to the mound.
  

Top 7:

• Roberts singles to center.
• Adam Jones got robbed of a home run to center yesterday, so he pulls one today. It clears the fence with plenty to spare, and the O's have retaken the lead 5-4.
• Ron Villone takes the mound with Markakis and Huff coming up.
• Nick pops out to third.
• Huff works a walk.
• Wigginton flies out to right-field.
• Reimold draws a walk - that's only his second of the season in 41 plate appearances.
  
• Moeller flies out to center to leave a couple stranded.
  

Bottom 7:

• Ray gets ahead of pinch-hitter Anderson Hernandez 0-2, but end up leaving a pitch out over the plate that Hernandez lines into right for a single.
• Harris gets jammed by a fastball inside but pulls it passed a diving Roberts for a single.
• Guzman drops a nice bunt down the third-base line, though Wigginton is able to throw him out by a step.
• With first-base open they're going to put Zimmerman on and bring Jamie Walker in to face Dunn. Felix Pie will also come in to play left-field.
  
• Adam Dunn hits a high flyball to left that Pie will not have a play on. Grand slam, and the Nationals are back ahead 8-5.
• Willingham lines out to left.
• Belliard grounds out to short.
  

Top 8:

• Joe Beimel takes the mound for Washington.
• Fantastic jumping catch by Kearns in foul territory to retire Andino. Actually, it looked better than it was because Kearns overran the ball initially - he didn't really need to jump for it.
  
• Pie strikes out swinging.
• Hernandez makes a diving catch at second to rob Roberts of a hit.
  

Bottom 8:

• Mark Hendrickson in to get some work.
• He gives up a single, but keeps the score at 8-5.
  

Top 9:

• Joel Hanrahan in for the save.
• Adam Jones can't catch up to a 96 mph fastball at the letters.
• Nick Markakis can't catch up to a 95 mph fastball right down the middle.
• Huff grounds out to second.
  

Another Sunday game, another loss for the Orioles. Adam Dunn was the big hero for Washington, hitting two home runs and driving in six. First place Toronto visits the Yard for a series starting tomorrow.
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