O's-A's, I Thought Oakland Had A Bad Offense?

The O's got beaten pretty thoroughly yesterday (9-1) as the dropped their third game in a row. Jason Berken will try to get the Birds back on the right track against 21 year-old fellow rookie Trevor Cahill.

Here's Berken's movement chart from his last start against the Tigers (7 IP, 1 R, but took the loss) courtesy of FangGraphs:


Berken's fastball has been about average, coming in at 92 mph and showing only slightly below average movement in on right-handed batters (and exactly average vertical movement). He also has a two-seamer at 90.7 mph, that sinks more than the four-seamer but less than the average two-seamer. The change-up is also very average, when it comes to both velocity (82.5 mph vs. 82.7 mph as the average) and movement (-6.7 vs. -6.4 horizontally, and 5.3 vs. 5.0 vertically). He throws a couple of different breaking-balls at very similar speeds but with different movement. The slider is at 81.1 mph with above-average break (4.2 vs. 2.4 as the average horizontally, so it moves more away from righties than average, and 0.2 vs. 2.2 vertically, so it drops more than average). That might explain why the slider has been his most effective pitches thus far going by linear weights (2.86 runs above average per 100 sliders thrown: the fastball is -0.56 runs, the change-up is also good at 1.47 runs, and the curve is something he may want to throw a little less of at -1.53 runs), and Jason did throw more of them in his second start than in his first (as a percentage of pitches thrown). The curveball comes in at only slightly slower than the slider (79.3 mph) and with more movement, but that movement is actually below average for a hook (4.7 vs. 5.5 horizontally, so it doesn't move away from righties as much as an average curve does, and -4.7 vs. -5.5 vertically, so it doesn't drop as much).

All of this is in a very small sample of two games, but Berken still looks like he has decent stuff. He won't be able to survive with a 1:1 strike-out to walk ratio though. He needs to get the walks down a little (3.75 BB/9 so far) and get the K's way up (also 3.75 K/9) to be successful, though I'm almost as excited about him as I am about Bergesen (who has a pretty good sinker - and I'll look at his Pitch/FX eventually - but is still giving up 1.16 HR/9; when he leaves the sinker up in the zone it can get hit a pretty long way).

Cahill actually works with a sinker himself, and he's giving up even more home runs (1.34 HR/9) than Bergesen, while also not striking anyone out (about a 4 K/9 for both) and walking more guys too (2.5 BB/9 for Berg, 3.9 BB/9 for Cahill). It may be wishful thinking given their play of late, but the O's should be able to put some runs on the board if they're patient at the plate.

In other news, Cesar Izturis is out after having just had an appendectomy. Sounds like he's going on the DL, with Oscar Salazar being called up. Thankfully the Birds traded Hayden Penn (7.77 ERA, 4.53 tRA out of the pen) to Florida for Robert Andino (.239/.280/.261, .275 wOBA, +2.8 UZR at short this year for the O's).

The line-up has also been shuffled around, with something I've been harping about - flipping Nick Markakis and Adam Jones - being part of that. This allows Luke Scott and his .449 wOBA to move up into the clean-up spot with Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora sliding down (since Jones will now break up the lefties a little). Felix Pie and Gregg Zaun will also be in there, giving Reimold and Wieters a day off. Now if only they'd rest Markakis and Roberts some time, we'd be in business.

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Top 1:

• Roberts flies out to center.
• Markakis singles down the third-base line.
• Nasty sinker down and in gets Jones swinging. Cahill's throwing it 92-94 instead of the 88-91 I was expecting.
  
• Luke Scott chases a change-up way outside for the second K of the inning.
  

Bottom 1:

• Orlando Cabrera lines the first pitch he sees into the right-field corner for a double.
• Adam Kennedy flies out to right, with Cabrera moving to third despite Nick's strong throw.
• Jack Cust grounds out to first, scoring a run.
• Matt Holliday flies out to the warning track in right to end the inning.
  

Top 2:

• The A's don't really shift against Huff, and he grounds out to third-base. That might have been an infield single if the fielders were moved around.
• Mora grounds out to short.
• Zaun grounds out to second.
  

Bottom 2:

• Jason Giambi grounds out to second.
  
• Kurt Suzuki gets jammed and grounds out to third.
• Aaron Cunningham flies out to right.
  

Top 3:

• Felix Pie fouls a pitch straight down, and the ball bounces back up and hits him in the throat. Looks like he's OK, though he waves at a change-up way outside for Cahill's third strike-out.
• Andino grounds out to short.
• Roberts flies out to center.
  

Bottom 3:

• Looks like that ball hurt Pie worse than it appeared, as Nolan Reimold takes his place in left. He handles the flyball by Jack Hannahan.
  
• Rajai Davis takes a high change-up (or a hanging curveball) into the left-center gap for a double.
• Cabrera bounces out to first.
• Kennedy hits a ball to center that falls in front of Adam Jones. Then it bounces passed him allowing Kennedy to go to second, with Davis having already scored to make it 2-0.
• Cust draws a walk.
• Holliday walks on four pitches, and that loads the bases with two down.
• Giambi will clear them with a double down the right-field line. 5-0, A's.
• Suzuki pops out.
  

Top 4:

• Markakis grounds out to second.
• Jones doubles into the left-field corner.
• High fastball gets Scott swinging.
• Huff grounds out to first.
  

Bottom 4:

• Cunningham doubles to left-center.
• Hannahan grounds to second, with Cunningham moving to third with one out.
• Davis draws a walk.
• Cabrera doubles off the wall in left to score a couple. 7-0, A's. They're just knocking the crap out of O's starters these last couple games.
• Kennedy doubles to left-center to make it 8-0. That's it for Berken, whose once shiny 2.25 ERA is up to 7.04.
  
• On the bright side, we get to see some more of David Hernandez. He'll take the mound, with the O's having burned much of their bullpen yesterday.
• Cust grounds out to first.
• Holliday singles through the left side to drice in the A's ninth run of the game. Roberts was actually shaded towards second-base, and if he was playing straight away it would have been right to him.
• Giambi flies out to left, with Reimold running a long way to get to that one in foul territory.

Top 5:

• Mora serves a single to right-field.
• Zaun flies out to left.
• Reimold, coming up for the first time today, grounds into a double play.

Bottom 5:

• Hernandez gives up a lead-off single, but K's a pair and gets a groundout to end the inning.
  

Think I'm more or less done paying a lot of attention to this one.

Hernandez pitched very well out of the pen (2.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K) and Nolan Reimold went deep (three-run homer), but it wasn't enough to get the O's all the way back. The lose 9-4 - another game over before it really even started.
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Read more ...

O's-A's, Can't Dig Out Of Early Hole

After losing two of three in Seattle, the O's continue their West coast swing with a stop in Oakland. The A's were a popular pick for the AL West crown once the injuries beset the Angels before the season, but I was still a little hesitant (projecting 82 wins) because of the pitching staff. Well the A's (who are still one of my favorite teams in baseball) are sitting at 22-30 and in last place, and the young pitching staff hasn't worked out exactly as planned.

A's top starters:
Dalles Braden (age 25) - 3.63 ERA, 4.06 tRA
Dana Eveland (age 25) - 7.40 ERA, 5.01 tRA
Josh Outman (age 24) - 3.02 ERA, 5.15 tRA
Trevor Cahill (age 21) - 4.33 ERA, 6.54 tRA
Brett Anderson (age 21) - 4.97 ERA, 4.92 tRA
Total - 4.30 ERA, 5.13 tRA

O's current starters (+ Koji):
Jeremy Guthrie (age 30) - 4.86 ERA, 5.68 tRA
Koji Uehara (age 34) - 4.09 ERA, 3.36 tRA
Rich Hill (age 29) - 4.15 ERA, 3.21 tRA
Brad Bergesen (age 23) - 4.64 ERA, 5.92 tRA
David Hernandez (age 24) - 4.91 ERA, 4.17 tRA
Jason Berken (age 25) - 2.25 ERA, 4.81 tRA
Total - 4.41 ERA, 4.83 tRA

There are some smaller sample sizes in there (really of them, but some more than others) but that explains a lot of the A's struggles. The continued lack of offense doesn't help either though. Despite reworking the line-up by bringing in Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi, and Orlando Cabrera, the A's team wOBA has actually gone down from .313 to .311. And even taking into account the pitcher's park in which they play, their adjusted wOBA this year is still .318.

The O's offense has been far more impressive, though still with only a wOBA of .340 (which is about average). The A's counter that advantage with a better pen (3.75 tRA to the O's 4.86 tRA) and a better defense (+6.0 UZR to the O's -13.0). It's because of those kinds of things (though not directly) the two teams having pretty much the same records according to third order wins from Baseball Prospectus (.438 winning percentage for the A's and .435 for the Birds).

Tonight it'll be the teams' respective "aces" - Dallas Braden (who actually beat the O's in his major league debut) and Jeremy Guthrie - on the mound.

I was going to blog through the game, but by the time I turned it on it was already 6-0 Oakland and Guthrie had been knocked out of the game. Mark Hendrickson came in and pitched a few innings, giving up a three-run homer to Matt Holliday. Matt Albers pitches a couple scoreless innings. Alberto Castillo - called up to take the place of the recently released Jamie Walker - pitched a perfect seventh (with a K), and Brian Bass finished it off with a perfect eighth. Unfortunately, Luke Scott hit his 13th HR of the year (and his 8th in the last nine games) - a solo shot - and that's all the offense that O's got on the night. They lose the first game of the series 9-1. Read more ...

A's-Angels, LA Takes An Early Lead In The AL West

The two teams that are likely to be in contention for the AL West title play tonight, with Dallas Braden of the A's facing off against Joe Saunders of the Angels. That's a pretty bad Opening Day match-up, and says a lot about the current state of these teams' rotations. I wish the Mariners-Twins game was on, with its Felix Hernandez-Fransisco Liriano duel. Oh well.

Top 1:

• Ryan Sweeney batting lead-off for Oakland, and Saunders strikes him out swinging.
• Orlando Cabrera backs Chone Figgins up at third, but he's able to make the long throw in time.
• Nice to see the Giambino back in Oakland. Giambi flies out to center.
  

Bottom 1:

• Figgins flies out to short center-field.
• Soft blooper by Howie Kendrick is caught by Nomar Garciaparra at first.
• Bobby Abreu singles back through the box, with the ball actually bouncing up off of second base.
• Vlad Guerrero bounces back to the mound to end the inning.
  

Top 2:

• New Athletic Matt Holliday up. He pokes a grounder passed a diving Kendrick at second for a single.
• Wow, Nomar is 35 years old. That is kind of sad. He flies out to Abreu in right.
• Eric Chavez actually in the line-up for the A's. It seems like it's been years since I've seen that. He serves a ball to center for a single.

A highlight is shown from Minnisota, where Ken Griffey Jr. takes Liriano out. Nice to see Junior in that M's uniform again.

• Kurt Suzuki gets his bat broken and grounds into a double paly.
  

Bottom 2:

• Torii Hunter swings at the first pitch and grounds out to short. He's no Adam Jones.
• Kendry Morales flies out to right.
• Jaun Rivera grounds out to short.
  

Top 3:

• One of the announcers just mentioned Three True Outcomes as Jack Cust hits. Or, more accurately, walks. And he wasn't talking about it in a negative sense. Good job, whoever you are.
  
• Mark Ellis grounds to Figgins at third, who makes a nice throw from the ground to force Cust at second.
• Groundball by Sweeney goes under Kendrick's glove and everybody's safe.
• A's attempt a double steal, but Ellis gets cut down at third.
• Cabrera pops out to end the inning.
  

Bottom 3:

• Jeff Mathis singles to start the third.
  
• Erick Aybar flies out to center.
• Figgins draws a walk.
• Hendrick singles into right to give the Angels an early 1-0 lead.
• Vlad hits a groundball into the hole at short - Cabrera makes a sliding stop but his throw bounces a few times and Guerrero beats it out. Another runner scores to make it 2-0.
• Hunter flies out to center to finish out the scoring.
  

Top 4:

• Giambi gets hit by a pitch and trots down to first.
• Two pop-outs and a flyball to deep center by Chavvy leaves him there.
  

Bottom 4:

• One-out single by Rivera, but Braden retires the next two Angels to leave him stranded.
  

Top 5:

• Cust draws a one-out walk, and Ellis tries to drop down a bunt but it rolls foul.
• Mark ends up grounding out to third.
• Sweeney hits a high flyball to center, but Hunter tracks it down.
  

Bottom 5:

• After a Figgins strike-out, Kendrick extends the lead t0 3-0 with a home run to right-center.
• Abreu K's, and then Vlad singles up the middle.
• Hunter singles to right. If the Angels put another couple of runs on the board, I may just go to bed.
• Morales grounds back to the mound for the third out.
  

Top 6:

• Cabrera starts the sixth with a double down the third-base line.
• Quality breaking-ball by Saunders gets Giambi to chase for strike three.
• Hillday grounds to short, with Aybar throwing to second to get Cabrera who had strayed too far from the bag.
• Nomar pops out.

Bottom 6:

• Rivera doubles down the right-field line.
• Mathis grounds out to short.
• Aybar flies to short left, with Holliday running in to make a nice sliding catch.
• Figgings flies out to center. Still 3-0 LA of A.
  

Top 7:

• Saunders gets two quick outs in the seventh, but with Jack Cust coming up (who Joe has already walked twice) the Angels will bring in Jose Arredondo (a righty).
• He gets Cust swinging, so it's two walks and a strike-out for the Three True Outcomes champ.
  

Bottom 7:

• Michael Wuertz in for the A's on the mound.
• He shows that good slider, and gets Kendrick swinging over the top of it.
• Wuertz gets Abreu swinging at a hanging slider.
• Vlad pops out to short. Good inning for the reliever, but the A's will need some runs soon.
  

Top 8:

• 1-2-3 inning by Scot Shields.
  

Bottom 8:

• Andrew Bailey counters with a perfect inning of his own.
  

Top 9:

• Brian Fuentes in to close things out for the Angels.
• Giambi grounds out - one down.
• Holliday flies out - two down.
• Nomer flies out to center for the final out.

Both pitchers were pretty effective, but neither was particularly dominant. LA is up by one game in the AL West, and given how bad these teams might be (85 wins may be enough to take the division) these head-to-head match-ups might be the difference. Read more ...

Down Goes Chavez.... Again

In past years, you knew baseball season was about to start when the news that Mark Prior was injured and wouldn’t be ready for Opening Day came out. With Prior’s career pretty much done, Eric Chavez has inherited that mantle. He has pain in his shoulder and may have to go on the DL. I used to really like Chavez, but it’s hard to be a fan of a player that’s never on the field. Chavvy and Nomar could form a great third-base platoon, where the one who’s actually healthy will get to play regardless of pitchers handedness. If by some miracle the A’s can get a full season of average-ish third-base out of those two, then that will really help their chances to catch the Angels. Read more ...

Not As Bad As It Used To Be

I like Andy MacPhail and think he's done a pretty good job with the club thus far, but it's frustrating to me that the Orioles are still behind the curve as far as front-office decision making process goes.

* The Mariners have gone from having one of the worst front-offices in baseball to one of the best under new GM Jeff Zduriencik. They're using stats and video analysis and even hired Tom Tango (of The Book fame) as a consultant.

* The Rays - who were already known to have top-flight leadership - signed Pat Burrell to a 2 year, $16 M contract. Very solid deal instantly improves their offense from the DH spot without overpaying (like the Phillies did with Raul Ibanez - seriously, what where they thinking?).

* The A's traded not much they really needed for Matt Holliday and inked Jason Giambi for only $4.5 M (with a 2010 option for $5 M with a $1 M buyout) to improve a dreadful offense and put them into contention with the Angels (and Rangers and Mariners, really).

* The Pirates are thinking outside the box, signing a couple of hard-throwers from India and seeing if they can turn them into pitchers.

* Heck, even Brian Sabean hasn't done anything stupid yet. Signing Randy Johnson to a one-year deal for $8.5 M (or whatever it was) was fantastic for them. San Fransisco's rotation may be enough to make them contenders in the NL West next year.

Now, it's certainly possible that MacPhail has a handle on defensive metrics and aging curves and all that but doesn't talk about it. Maybe the team has invested heavily in scouting and player development without making it widely known. Since I don't know, the only way to make a judgment on that is by the product on the field and the actions of the GM. With so many contracts coming off the books after 2009, MacPhail will have to chance to take the team in any number of directions. I'm not pessimistic yet, but that may change depending on how the rest of the off-season goes. The only big mistake he's made was saying he doesn't sign players before their third year and waiting on Nick Markakis. That probably cost him (the team) at least $20 M. Hopefully he learns from it and locks Adam Jones up early. (I'd say Matt Wieters too, but agent Scott Boras has shown little willingness to accept those kinds of contracts in the past.) Read more ...

One Big Holiday

As I said in the A's post, Oakland traded for Matt Holliday today.

The A's got:

Matt Holiday, 28 year-old OF, hit .321/.409/.538, 25 HR, .417 wOBA, 123 wOBA+ last year. Good baserunner (28 SB in 30 attempts doubled his career high) and quality defender. One year left until free agency.

The Rockies got:

Greg Smith, 24 year-old LHSP, 4.16 ERA, 5.34 tRA, 90 tRA+ last year. Solid back-or-the-rotation starter. Going into his second year.

Huston Street, 24 year-old RHRP, 3.73 ERA, 3.58 tRA, 120 tRA+ last year. Lost his closer's job but is still a good reliever. Two years until free agency.

Carlos Gonzalez, 22 year-old OF, hit .242/.273/.361, .280 wOBA, 85 wOBA+. Young and talented, but "Matt Holliday" is probably above even his ceiling. Garret Anderson is a comparison I've heard a few times. Going into his second year.

Even with the move from Coors Field to the Oakland Coliseum, Holliday should still be a very good hitter (thought you won't see another 1.012 OPS). Street takes the departing Brian Fuentes' place at the back of the Rockies' pen and Smith slides into the back of the rotation as a Jeff Francis-lite. Giving up the five cost-controlled years of Gonzalez is what hurts, but I've never been all that high on him personally. The A's can turn around and trade him at the deadline or let him walk at the end of the year and get a couple of draft-picks. I can't see the team ponying up $20+ MM a year for him, though I didn't think they'd be willing to pay his $15 MM (or whatever he gets in arbitration) salary for 2009. If the A's think the can contend next year then it's a fine move for them. If the Rockies don't think they can contend next year then this is a good move for them. Read more ...

2008 - Oakland A's

Exam's done and election's over - time to get back to the baseball. I was planning to look at each team's 2008 season and couldn't decide which order to go in. Today's news took care of the first team for me...

The Athletics acquired Matt Holliday from Colorado, and so we'll start with the A's.

Record: 75-86
Pythagorean Record: 76-85
Third Order Standings (from BPro): 77-84
My Prediction: 77-85
Over/Under: Over 73.5 - Correct

After trading Dan Haren and Nick Swisher, the A's were supposed to be pretty bad. They showed everybody by getting off to a good start. Rich Harden (who was traded himself at the deadline) was fantastic (2.34 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 6.7 H/9, 2.85 tRA and 141 tRA+) when he was healthy; Justin Duchscherer made a nice transition to the rotation (2.54 ERA, 6.0 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 6.8 H/9, 3.90 tRA and 120 tRA+)and made the All-Star team; and new lefties Greg Smith (4.16 ERA, 5.34 tRA) and Dana Eveland (4.34 ERA, 5.33 tRA) provided pleasant surprises at the back-end of the rotation. Submarining righty Brad Zeigler came out of nowhere to set a new record for consecutive scoreless innings to start a career and ended up the team's closer (with a 1.06 ERA, 3.77 tRA, and a 63% groundball rate), but it was actually Joey Devine (who came over from Atlanta for Mark Kotsay) that was the pen's best reliever (0.59 ERA, 9.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 4.5 H/9, 1.93 tRA, 157 tRA+).

The pitching-staff overall was pretty good (4.01 ERA, 4.88 tRA) - it was the offense that caused the team to fall out of contention. The team couldn't hit (.242 BA - last in the AL), couldn't walk (.318 OBP - 13th out of 14), and couldn't hit for power (.369 SLG - last). In the earlier parts of the season the team still managed to put runs on the board, but it wasn't sustainable. Jack Cust continued his amazing three-true-outcomes performance (33 HR, 111 BB, 197 K) but the rest of the line-up was filled with hitters who were OK at best. In fact, Cust was the only guy who played even half the season with a SLG over .400.

Though they only pushed the Angels for a little while, it was solid season on the way back up for the A's. It certainly helps them that Mark Ellis and his golden glove (unfortunately still lower-case) will be sticking around for a couple more years at dirt cheap prices ($11 MM total, which he should be getting yearly). Lots of depth kept them afloat in 2008, and it should serve them well in 2009. Read more ...

They Couldn't Have Called It In The 6th?

The A's scored 11 runs on 7 hits. That should not happen in the major leagues - even if the O's used a bunch of minor league pitchers and there was a bunch of rain. The Orioles lose again, 11-2, and drop to 14 games under .500 at 63-77. I do have to say that I appreciate seeing Nick Markakis draw a walk to lead-off the ninth though the team was down nine runs - can we give him the "Professional Hitter" label yet? I don't think it's likely that they'll get to the 72 I predicted. Maybe not even the 69 from last year. Just another September in Baltimore. At least the Ravens are back this Sunday.


That's a pretty good representation of my feelings about this baseball season. Read more ...

Cupcakes Sent To Philadelphia

Billy Beane has shipped out another starting pitcher, Joe Blanton, to the Phillies in return for three prospects. That makes 40% of their starting rotation that's been sent packing (and yet the A's can still field a pitching staff - the O's lose a couple of guys to injuries, and they have to sign Victor's Zambrano and Santos).

The A’s got (courtesy of Baseball Prospectus):

Josh Outman, 23 year-old LHP, was moved from the starting rotation to the bullpen early this season and went 5-4 with one save and a 3.20 ERA in 33 games, five starts, with a 1.49 WHIP and 8.45 strikeouts and 4.73 walks per nine innings in AA.

Adrian Cardenas, 20 year-old 2B, was hitting .309/.374/.444 in A-ball.

Matt Spencer, 22 year-old OF, was batting .249/.317/.367 in A-ball.

The Phillies got:

Joe Blanton, 27 year-old RHSP, is 5-12 with a 4.96 ERA in 20 starts this season with 1.42 WHIP and 4.39 strikeouts and 2.84 walks per nine innings.

Outman has a shot of becoming a decent mid-rotation starter, or at least a swingman; Cardenas probably won’t set the world on fire, but he does have the ability to hit for average, get on base, and knock out some doubles – that he’s 16-16 in stolen base attempts this year is just a bonus; and Spencer probably won’t amount to all that much, but isn’t awful as a throw-in.

Blanton is a hittable innings-eater that has survived by limiting the long-ball. Considering he doesn’t get that many groundballs, and played in a pitcher’s park, the move to homer-friendly Citizen’s Bank may well do more harm than good (even considering the switch to the NL). Philadelphia will have control of Blanton through 2010, but it’ll his arbitration years instead of as part of a long-term contract, so he won’t be getting that much less than his market price.

I like this deal a for the A’s. They don’t really hurt themselves much by giving up Blanton; get a guy that may eventually replace him in Outman; and add another talented middle-infielder to their system. With the Angels 9 games ahead of them in the AL West, and clearly the better team, it was smart of Beane to start moving pitchers when few are available (with Erik Bedard being the notable exception, but he’s apparently out until August anyway). Huston Street may find himself in a different uniform in the coming weeks also (perhaps the Mets, with Billy Wagner experiencing some shoulder pain). The Phillies do strengthen their rotation a little, but I don’t know if it’ll be enough to hold off the Mets. This is the kind of deal I could have seen given Blanton’s value before the season started, but with the way he’s pitched this year I didn’t think a team would give up this much for him. Read more ...

The Cubs Answer In Short Order

Remember how I said yesterday that I would cover my NL All-Stars today? Well, I kinda' lied. Off the top of my head it would be:

C: Brian McCann
1B: Lance Berkman
2B: Chase Utley
3B: Chipper Jones
SS: Hanley Ramirez
OF: Matt Holliday
OF: Pat Burrell
OF: Ryan Ludwick
SP: Tim Lincecum

I'm glad I didn't add Rich Harden to the AL team, since he wouldn't be able to play for the team (I think). That's because Harden and Chad Gaudin are on their way to the NL. The A's have traded them to the Chicago Cubs in return for Sean Gallagher, Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, and Josh Donaldson. Let's break it down.

Cubs get:

Rich Harden - 27 year-old RHSP; loads of talent, throws hard, great stuff, iffy control sometimes; plagued by injury issues - makes $4.75 M this year with a team option for $9 M in 2009 - 5-1 with a 2.34 ERA in 13 starts this season with 10.7 strikeouts and 3.6 walks per nine innings, and a 1.14 WHIP.

Chad Gaudin - 25 year-old RHP; serviceable #4/5 starter or swingman, not great stuff but workable, trouble throwing strikes consistently - making $1.775 M in his first year of arbitration - 5-3 with a 3.59 ERA in 26 games, six starts, with 6.3 strikeouts and 2.4 walks per nine innings, and a 1.28 WHIP.

A's get:

Sean Gallagher - 22 year-old RHSP; throws low 90's fastball, change, and breaking-ball; already showing slightly above average control with a solid K rate; could develop into a #2 starter, but #3/4 is much more likely - making the league minimum in his rookie season - 3-4 with a 4.45 ERA in 12 games, 10 starts, with 7.5 strikeouts and 3.4 walks per nine innings, and a 1.36 WHIP.

Matt Murton - 26 year-old LF; never got a long look with the Cubs; good be a 290 / 360 / 475 type hitter, but is better against lefties; not a great defender - a year left until arbitration - 294 / 362 / 448 career, but his OPS has decreased 4 straight years (down to .586 this year before he was sent to AAA).

Eric Patterson - 25 year-old 2B; like brother Corey Patterson but with better plate discipline and worse defense - in his rookie year - 239 / 308 / 348 in limited time this year, and 320 / 358 / 517 in AAA.

Josh Donaldson - 22 year-old C; not hitting well in A-ball, but is supposed to have a pretty good eye.

Rich Harden is obviously the best player in the trade, and I'm surprised he could be had for so little. That doesn't mean it was a bad deal for Oakland, as Gallagher has the potential to equal Harden's total value on a yearly basis (if Harden continues to be unable to make 30 starts). Murton can be an average outfielder, and Patterson can be about an average second baseman (and I know next to nothing about Donaldson). Still, I would have expected Josh Vitters to be involved in such a deal - there is no Matt LaPorta type going to the A's. That Billy Beane threw in Gaudin seems excessive. Thought maybe he would have taken on the risk-reward of Rich Hill given the chance to buy low. I guess Oakland's OK with not trying to challenge to Angels this year. [A's fans are not happy at all about this one, it seems.]

[Rob Neyer thinks the A's may be taking advantage of some insider info:

"This is where proximity really helps. Nobody should have a better idea about Harden’s immediate future than the A’s. If they think he’s going to be healthy for the rest of this season, they should keep him. With a healthy Harden, there’s no obvious reason to think the A’s can’t contend for a playoff spot down the stretch. Which is, you know, what it’s all about.

But if he’s not healthy, they probably don’t have the depth to contend because their pitching has to carry them.

Granted, all this may change between now and the July 31 trade deadline. At the moment, the A’s are 3½ games behind the wild-card-leading Red Sox. If they’re six or seven games out, the equation’s different. But if the A’s are still close at the end of this month and they’re willing to deal Harden? Caveat emptor."

That's a good point, but I still think Beane could have gotten a little more for his ace.]

Needless to say, this is a great deal for the Cubs. They only trade one guy who has an important place on the team (Gallagher) and replace him with a guy who can challenge CC Sabathia (who, as of this writing, is shutting out the Rockies in his first start for Milwaukee) when he's on the mound. Zambrano-Harden-Dempster in the rotation; Marmol-Wood in the pen; and Soriano-Fukudome-Lee-Ramirez-Soto-Edmonds-DeRosa-Theriot swinging the bats might make the Cubs the front runners to win the World Series.

Maybe the Cardinals will now try to counter with a move of the their own. I think Brian Roberts would look awfully good hitting ahead of Pujols, Ludwick, and Ankiel. Read more ...

O's-A's, Nine Singles Was Enough

Brian Burres will try to continue his successful season against the Duke (Justin Duchscherer). Mora and Markakis have been flipped back to their usual line-up spots, though I'm not really sure why.

Duke isn't a power pitcher by any means (84-86 with the fastball) but we strikes out Roberts and Mora before getting Kakes to line out. Another slow start for the offense.

Burres has easily been the teams most consistently good starter, with that six run inning in Tampa being his only real blemish (take out that inning and he has a 1.19 ERA). That ERA would go up as three singles (the third a bloop down the right field line) scores a run for the A's. Burres walked a batter after that, but got Mark Ellis to line-out to short to end the inning.

The O's go down in order again.

Gary Thorne is mentioning that Daric Barton came over from St. Louis along with Kiko Calero in the Mark Mulder trade. Now I seem to recall that there was a third guy in the deal... hmmm... oh yeah, it was Dan Haren. Kind of funny that Calero would come to mind first. With Haren going over to Arizona, the A's were able to turn Mulder into seven players. Not bad, I'd say.

The A's get an infield single, but do not score.

Two more K's for Duke, and the O's are not looking good at the plate.

A bloop and a seeing-eye grounder put a couple on with no outs for Oakland. This is pretty much just luck evening out for Burres, as those balls were finding fielders so far this year. Another grounder gets through the infield to load the bases. Considering his control is off a bit, I'm OK with Brain struggling in this start. If this was happening against, say, the Red Sox then it would mean 5-6 runs - now it may just be 2-3. Matt Albers is warming in the pen - it is a big advantage having former (current?) starters in the bullpen. When I play my baseball sim (Baseball Mogul) I rarely pay for relivers. Instead, I just take guys that aren't going to make the rotation (because I always have pitching depth - much like the O's will soon) and stick them back there.

Anyway, a couple of more ground balls result in outs, but runners come in to make it 3-0. Another grounder ends the inning. I am actually happy with the results - if Burres can up his ground ball rate, then he should be able to keep his HR rate down. With his improved control, that should actually allow him to continue contributing to the rotation.

The O's finally get a baserunner, as B-Rob walks on a pitch just off the outside corner. Wow, Duke has a big looping curveball. It's only 68-70 but it really rolls off the table. (After a Mora groundout) Nick doesn't take the bat off his shoulder and draws a walk. The Orioles finally get a hit, as Huff pulls one through the infield to score Roberts. Aubrey is having a nice bounce-back season so far. Millar takes one out of the Oakland play-book with a bloop single to short center. The bases are loaded for the scuffling Luke Scott. Good time for his second home run of the year. He does put a charge into one (though he swung at the first pitch, for some reason) but Rajai Davis is able to run it down in center. Markakis come in to score to cut the lead to 3-2, but the O's can't get any more as Adam Jones pops out on the first pitch he sees. If working the count was working well, why would the hitters stop doing it?

Another infield single, but that's it for Oakland. Burres appears to have settled down a bit.

The Pelican and B-Rob hit the ball hard, but the Orioles don't have anything to show for it.

1-2-3 go the A's, with Burres picking up his first strike-out.

Mora starts the inning with a single, but is erased on a double play grounder by Markakis. Huff grounds out himself, and it's still 3-2.

A hit batsman and a throwing error by Mora puts runners on second and third with nobody out. A sac fly scores one run, and that'll be all for Burres as Albers is coming in. Matt gets out of it with a pop-up and a strike-out.

A single by Luke Scott, but he's left stranded. Time to stretch.

Albers has some control issues - walking Thomas - but keeps the A's off the board.

The Orioles go down in order again - they'll need at least 2 against Street in the ninth.

After a single, Albers gets a come-backer and throws to second to get the force. Unfortunately, the Eider Torres doesn't actually touch the base and the runner is safe (along with the runner at first). Come on Alex Cintron. A double play gets him out of it - good job by Albers to keep the score where it was.

Just kidding, it's Santiago Casilla (formerly Jairo Garcia) coming in. Casilla hasn't given up a run this year, and has 20 K's in 16.2 IP. With two outs a walk by Millar gives the O's life. Now would also be a good time for Luke's second home run. It was not to be, as Scott pops out to the third baseman way over in foul territory - it probably would have been 10 rows in the seats in Baltimore.

So the A's win again, 4-2. That's the Bird's fourth straight loss, and drops them below .500 for the first time since Opening Day. The pitching was OK, but the offense has still not gotten going. Jeremy Guthrie will try to keep it from being a sweep tomorrow. Read more ...

O's-A's, Tough Luck For Olson

No MASN2 today, so it'll be MLB.com's Gameday feed of the battle of the vowels. The O's take on the A's.

Brian Roberts gets things off to a good start with a single, but after a fielder's choice groundout, the O's get (it seems) back to their bad baserunning ways as Nick Markakis is doubled off of first base on a line-out to the right fielder. [After seeing some video of it, Nick was running on the pitch and wasn't able to get back in time, so it really wasn't that bad of baserunning.]

Garrett Olson is throwing only 86-87 as he falls behind lead-off man (and catcher) Kurt Suzuki before giving up a single to center. This A's offense is scoring runs based almost solely on walks - their third in the AL in runs scored despite being 8th in average and next to last in HR. Olson comes back to get three outs on balls in the air. Scoreless through one in this battle of lefties (pitching for Oakland is Dana Eveland, 3-2, 3.67 ERA, came over as a "throw-in" type guy in the Dan Haren deal).

Kevin Millar walks, but the second inning ends like the first - with a double play. This time it's Ramon with the more standard groundout variety.

1-2-3 for Olson in the second, including a strike-out of Mr. Three True Outcomes (Jack Cust, who has 25 walk, 31 K's, and 4 HR in 109 PA - that's one of the TTO in 55% of times at the plate).

The Luke Scott platoon continues (come on Trembley, give him a chance) as Jay Payton is in there in left. Payton grounds out in between K's by Jones and the Pelican.

Oakland gets another lead-off single, but Olson strikes out a pair and the A's don't score. He's using all of his pitches and it's nice to see that the strike-outs have transitioned to the majors - if Olson can just keep the walks down he should be OK.

Nick falls behind 1-2 and chases a slider down and away. So many strike-outs this year - I can see why traditionalists hate guys who strike out a lot, as it's somewhat painful to watch. If they are still productive though, it doesn't really make much difference. I just need to keep reminding myself that. The O's get a pair on with a Mora walk and a Huff single, but can't get one across.

Another single and two more K's (including Cust again) as Olson (I think) is looking good so far.

The O's go down 1-2-3 again and we've got a good old-fashioned pitcher's duel going.

Three-up, three-down go the A's with another K in the books for Olson (his 6th). He has thrown 51 of 72 pitches for strikes and is really shutting down the Oakland offense by keeping the ball in the zone. If only the O's bats could get him some runs...

With one out B-Rob walked and Nick lined one to third. I don't know if Roberts was off with the pitch, but he was doubles off of first. That's the third time the O's have ended an inning with a twin-killing. [The video doesn't show if Roberts ran, but Donnie Murphy made a great play to get that ball, diving to his right.]

Olson falls behind Mark Ellis 3-1, but comes back to get him looking on a curveball.
1-2-3 goes Oakland. Olson has given up zero runs through the first six innings of both starts. He really deserves to get a win today, but Eveland has been matching him (almost) pitch for pitch.

Kevin Millar draws his second walk of the day (and the team's fourth) but that's all they get.

After a quick groundout by the Bug Hurt, Olson gave up a single to Emil Brown and walked Jack Cust. He won't be able to get the win as Matt Albers is coming in from the pen, but boy did he pitch well - 6.1 IP, 4 H (all singles), 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K. Albers gets Bobby Crosby and the A's send up lefty Jack Hannahan to pinch-hit for Donnie Murphy (utilizing that extended bench). The O's counter with Jamie Walker coming in. Walker gives up back-to-back infield singles, and the A's take a 1-0 lead. Oakland doesn't score again and leaves the bases loaded.

A lead-off single by Adam Jones chases Eveland, and a single by Payton puts the tying run at second for the Pelican. Luis gets down the sacrifice, and Jones moves to third with one out for Roberts. The O's (I think) haven't been that good in these situations this yaer, so we'll see how this goes. Alan Embree comes in to keep Roberts batting right-handed (which he is worse at). Brian gets ahead 3-1, but his fly ball to left is too short and Jones has to hold. It'll be up to Nick now, as the O's are "unclutch" again. Kakes gets ahead 2-0 and grounds out to short. Another scoring chance doesn't get cashed in. If the O's lose this game (and with Huston Street coming in that looks likely) then it will be a very disappointing one for Olson, who didn't give up the run himself and pitched more than well enough to win.

Chad Bradford retires the A's in order and we'll go to the top of the ninth. The Orioles have yet to be shutout this year, but they have been kept to one run six times (all losses).

Don't look now, but here come those O's. Melvin Mora starts things off with a double - he's batting .500 in the #3 spot this year. Street seems off today, as he throws four pitches way out of the zone to Huff. Perhaps it was the old unintentional-intentional walk. Millar flies out, but Mora hustles over to third - it doesn't take a hit to score him now. And that's exactly what happens, as Ramon grounds out to short. With Eider Torres running for Huff and the ball being hit slowly there wasn't a chance for a double play. That ties the game at 1-1, and gets Olson off the hook. Adam Jones strikes out swinging, but the O's didn't get shutout (and haven't lost, yet?). The Orioles are getting the runner in from third with less than two outs just over half of the team - it's the lowest rate amongst all AL teams.

Jim Johnson relieves Bradford and promptly walks Emil Brown. Ryan Sweeney (defensive replacement - man it must be nice to have a deep bench) sacrifices Brown to second - that's not really a great play in general, but in this situation it isn't a terrible call. After a Crosby groundout (great diving play by Roberts at second to save the game), Dave Trembley has Johnson intentionally walk Jack Hannahan to get to Rajai Davis. Since they only need one run, it makes sense to set up the match-up and get the extra force at second. Davis grounds out, and it'll be extra-innings.

Joey Devine (came over from the Braves for Mark Kotsay and has an 0.75 ERA) set the side down in order with K's of Payton and Roberts.

With two outs Johnson gives up a single to Daric Barton and then walks Frank Thomas. The tying run is in scoring position for Emil Brown. And Brown ends things with a single to center to bring in Barton.

I'm disappointed by the O's loss, which drops them to 16-16, but I'm glad the game is over so I can go to sleep. I don't know what I would have done if it went 22 innings. Sorry Garrett Olson, but you may need to get used to it. In the big picture, I'm actually happy with the outcome as the A's actually have a chance to make a play-off run this year. Maybe this win over the O's, which easily could have gone the other way, will be what puts them ahead of the Angels (I'm assuming the 14-19 Mariners aren't going to be up there). Read more ...

Big Hurt To The Good West Coast Team

Frank Thomas has (thankfully) signed a contract with the Oakland A's. Oakland is upgrading from Mike Sweeney/Jack Cust for the league minimum, and an offense that is near the bottom of the league in home runs should get a boost. As an extra added bonus, it keeps Thomas away from the rival Mariners, who likewise could have used his bat. While the A's are "rebuilding", they are currently playing very well and the weaknesses of the Angels (rotation depth), M's (bad offense), and Rangers (just bad) leave Oakland in a position to actually be somewhat competitive in the AL West. With a few lucky breaks, I could easily see them winning it with 86 or so victories - here's hoping. It would happen in the one year I don't pick them to do it.

The Thomas signing does raise an interesting question: why doesn't Barry Bonds have a job? They are similar players (old sluggers that have been considered "clubhouse cancers", though Bonds can play left once in a while and bats lefty - both advantages over Thomas) and yet Bonds hasn't even been offered a contract. Collusion? Perhaps, but it's not as if he doesn't deserve it - even though two wrongs don't make a right (though two Wrights do make a plane). If the M's miss the playoffs by a game while they have a DH with 4 home runs, then I would be pretty mad as a Seattle fan (if I was a Seattle fan). If they think they're a contender (implied by the Bedard trade) then they should put the best team on the field they can. That's not what they're doing, and I hope it continues. Read more ...

A's Lead West In Wins

Congratulations to the Oakland A's on getting their first win of 2008, with their victory over the Boston Red Sox in the second game of their opening series in Japan. After blowing a save in game one, and having the Red Sox win in extra-innings, the A's, behind a strong and very encouraging start by Rich Harden (6 IP, 3 H, 3 BB, 9 K, 1 R, on a Manny Ramirez HR) took game two 5-1. Former Oriole Jeff "Screech" Fiorentino delivered an RBI single. I don't understand why the O's gave him up for nothing - he isn't worse than Tike Redman. Rookie first-baseman (and darkhorse ROY candidate) Daric Barton is hitting third and picked up another walk, to go along with the three from the opener. He may walk more times this series than Corey Patterson will all year. The A's offense is filled with rookies and cast-offs and declining veterans (former Royals star Mike Sweeney is batting clean-up) and they've scored 5 runs in each game - they only have 16 hits, but they've walked 11 times. Getting on base makes up for a lot of other problems a line-up may have. Another congratulations goes out to reliever Keith Foulke, who's made his way out of retirement to pitch in each game (both times 1 IP, no walks or hits, and he struck out a batter). I hope he does well this season.

Hmm, steady #1 starter who has pretty good control but doesn't strike out too many and gives up his share of hits... #2 starter who has a lot of talent but can't be counted on to produce on the field (injuries vs. inconsistency) [you see where I'm going with this?]... a bunch of young starters with some potential but lacking quality results at the major league level... a bullpen with a strike-out closer, a veteran lefty-righty tandem, and a bunch of hard-throwing unknowns (plus a lefty longman who didn't have much success as a rookie starter last year)... an offense without big-time star, but with some potential at a few positions and a quality out-field prospect arriving soon [how about now?]... some not too great veterans filling in at a few positions...it does sound awfully familiar. The A's are a better team than the O's, but you can see what I mean.

Many projection systems have the A's, and not the Mariners, as the #2 team in the AL West. I have both teams winning 77 games, but I think it's more likely that the A's win 90 (and the division) while the M's lose 90 than the other way around. I don't see why injuries to the Angels starters only help Seattle - the A's are in just as good (better?) a position to capitalize on them. Read more ...