Ninth Inning Homers Fuel O's Comeback Win

In the first game of their series with the Phillies, the O's picked up a 7-2 win on the strength of a fortunate start by Rich Hill (only 2 runs in 6.2 IP despite 5 H and 4 BB, though he did K 5) and 2-for-4 games by Nick Markakis (plus a walk) and Nolan Reimold (including a HR).

Game two features a match-up of rookies, with lefty JA Happ going for Philadelphia and Brad Bergesen trying to continue his great stretch of pitching for the Birds. In his last four starts, Bergesen is 3-0 with 32 IP, 22 H, 6 R, 5 BB, 15 K, and has lowered his ERA from 5.49 to 3.79.

• The O's get two hits and two walks in the first inning, but can't get a runner across the plate.
• Two more hits but no runs again in the second. They keep getting runners on, they should score eventually.
• Adam Jones lays down a nice bunt single in the fifth. Didn't know he had that in his arsenal. Aubrey Huff follows that up with a double into the left-center gap to give the O's a 1-0 lead.
• Bergesen has movement on his sinker and good bite on the slider. The Phillies hitters can't seem to square up the ball very well or make solid contact.
  
• The O's extend the lead for him as Andino doubles and scores on a sac fly by Roberts in the sixth.
• I guess the Orioles are just going to slowly put runs on the board. They add another one in the seventh, as they load the bases with nobody out but can only get a single run forced in by a walk.
• A couple of doubles to start the Phillies seventh breaks up the shutout. A couple of singles then makes it 3-2. Bergesen was cruising along and just like that he's out of the game.
• Ryan Howard comes up as a pinch-hitter after Danys Baez got the second out of the inning and gives the Phillies the lead with a three-run home run. How did the wheels fall off so quickly?
• Gregg Zaun brings the O''s half-way back with a solo home run in the ninth against stand-in closer Ryan Madsen.
• Oscar Salazar hits a pinch-hit single through the right side.
• Brian Roberts - on an 1-2 pitch - takes Madsen deep to right. What a comeback for the O's, and they now have a 6-5 lead.
• George Sherrill pitches a perfect ninth to lock down the save.

Great win for the Orioles. Bergesen pitches six great inning before running into a wall in the seventh - he ended up being charged with 4 runs but a couple of those were actually allowed to score by Baez. The team shouldn't have even been in the situation to need the comeback in the ninth, since they totaled 21 baserunners for the game (16 hits, 5 walks) and yet managed only 6 runs (3 via the longball). Zaun went 3-4 (with the homer and a walk) and raised his batting average a full 17 points to .226. The O's have already guaranteed themselves a series win, and they go for the sweep tomorrow with Jeremy Guthrie on the hill. Read more ...

Braves-Phillies, Lowe Dominates-Myers Doesn't

The Philadelphia Phillies begin their defense of their Championship against the Braves to kick off the 2009 baseball season. Jon Miller and Joe Morgan are being joined in the broadcast booth by Steve Phillips, so this should be fun. Maybe having Steve say a lot of dumb things will free Joe to do what he's best at - explain in-game things (such as the positioning of defenders or pitch sequencing). And give credit where it's due; Joe really is very knowledgeable about that kind of stuff. The problem is how consistently he talks about other things that he doesn't understand very well.

With Cole Hamels injured, it'll be (hopefully just former) wife-beater Brett Myers on the hill for Philly. Funny how nobody cares about that, but Bonds and A-Rod are demonized for taking something to be better at baseball. [It was still wrong of them, but I think the double-standard isn't really fair.]

Top 1:

• Kelly Johnson flies out to start things off.
• Yunel Escobar swings at the first pitch and grounds out to short.
• Chipper Jones up, and the stats that ESN puts up contain OPS, along with an explanation. Jon Miller is going over it on the broadcast, and they also show the league average. Small steps, but they're getting there. Larry singles to left-center and is now hitting 1.000 on the season. Obviously that means he's going to make another run at .400.
• Brian McCann crushes one to deep right, and the Braves have an early lead, 2-0. Change-up in the middle of the plate that McCann just unloaded on.
• Garrett Anderson, "Professional Hitter", grounds out to first to end the inning. Hey, at least he can play defense a little.
  

Bottom 1:

• Patented Derek Lowe sinker for ball one to Jimmy Rollins. J-Roll (I assum that's how that works with him) grounds to the sure-handed Casey Kotchman at first.
• Jason Werth, who had a great under-the-radar season in 2008, pops out.
• It was questionable if Chase Utley would be ready for Opening Day, but he's in there. Utley with a drive to deep right, but Frenchy is able to track it down.

Top 2:

• Jeff Francouer swings at the first pitch (nothing new) and hits a line-drive in the seats in left. 3-0, Braves. Keith Law was asked in a chat recently which would be bigger; the number of Oreos he could eat in a single sitting, or the number of walks Francouer would draw this year. Answer: Oreos. Considering Frenchy should get about 35 free passes, that provides some interesting info. about the Klaw.
• Kotchman goes down swinging.
  
• Jordaon Schafer (who's white, apperently) homers to left-center in his first major-league at bat. Fastball a little down and away, and Schafer went with it to the opposite field.
• Myers gets Lowe for his second strike-out.
• Johnson - batting for the second time in asmany innings - flies to center for the second time.
  

Bottom 2:

• A whole bunch of sliders eventually gets Ryan Howard swinging.
• Raul Ibanez and Shane Victorino both ground out to short. Lowe is doing his thing.
  

Top 3:

• Another long drive off Myers - this time by Escobar. It bounces high off the left-center wall, and Yunel goes into second standing with a lead-off double.
• Sharp 3-2 curveball gets Chipper swinging.
• McCann pops out to third.
  
• Anderson grounds to first again to end the inning.
  

Bottom 3:

• A double by Carlos Ruiz but he's left stranded. Still 4-0.
  

Top 4:

• Two-out single by Schafer up the middle, but Myers retires Lowe to end the inning.
  

Bottom 4:

• Werth grounds to third, with Kotchman picking Chippers throw out of the dirt.
  
• Now a great diving stop by Kotchman at first, with the throw to Lowe covering to get Utley.
• Howard grounds to Escobar on the right side of second-base (they had the shift on) for the third out.
  

Top 5:

• Myers sets Johnson down for his fourth K of the game.
• Escobar grounds out to his counterpart at short.
• Chipper with a drive to deep center goes over Victorino's head (the Flyin' Hawaiian didn't take the best route to the ball) and bounces over the wall for a ground-rule double.
• Strike-out number five send McCann (and Jones, I guess) back to the dugout.
  

Bottom 5:

• Ibanez grounds out to short again. Wonder when they'll regret that contract. 2010? June? Last month, maybe?
• Victorino swings and misses another Lowe sinker for the pitcher's second K tonight.
• Joe Morgan is talking about how much Gary Sheffield means to a team. I can't wait until Sheff retires, if for no other reason than to shut Joe up about him.
• Feliz goes down swinging. Through five innings the Phillies have had one baserunner.
  

Top 6:

• Anderson starts things off with a single, and moves around to third on a couple of groundouts.
• Myers intentionally walks Schafer, after the rookie had a couple of hits (including that homer) in his first two at bat.
• Lowe tries to drop down a bunt, but it goes foul before Ruiz could get to it. After getting ahead 0-2 and then falling behind 3-2, Myers comes back to get Lowe looking.
  

Bottom 6:

• Jimmy Rollins picks up the Phillies' second hit of the game, singling up the middle with two outs. Greg Dobbs pinch-hit for Myers, so there will be someone new on the mound in the next inning.
• Werth lines one up the middle, but Lowe is able to snag it for the third out.
  

Top 7:

• Lefty Jack Taschner in from the Philadelphia pen. He gets Johnson to ground out to second to start the seventh.
• Escobar follows suit.
• Chipper goes down looking on a fastball off the outside corner. Early on it looked like this might be a blowout, but the Phillies still need to cut into the 4-0 Braves lead soon.
  

Bottom 7:

• Another 1-2-3 innging for Lowe (including two more groundouts).
  

Top 8:

• With two outs, Chad Durbin is brought in to face Francouer, who's 0-8 against him in his career. Jon Miller - the chances of Francouer getting on are low. Steve Phillips - he's due. Me - you're both idiots that don't understand what small sample size means, but Jon is less wrong since Frenchy's chances of getting on-base in general aren't that good (31.2% career). He strikes out, by the way.
  

Bottom 8:

• Lowe still working on his shutout, gets Victorino to tap one back to the mound on the first pitch.
• Feliz strikes out swinging.
• Ruiz grounds out to short. Didn't the Phillies lead the NL in runs last year?

Top 9:

• Brad Lidge in for the ninth, and he retires the Braves in order.
  

Bottom 9:

• It is the first game of the season, so I understand Atlanta bringing in closer Mike Gonzlez despite Lowe only throwing 97 pitches in his eight shutout innings. Derek had both the sinker and the breaking-ball working, and his control was excellent. Not much the Phillies could have done against that.
• Pinch-hitter Eric Bruntlett doubles down the left-field line (off the chalk, infact) to start the Philadelphia attack in the ninth.
• Rollins lines out to right, with Bruntlett moving over to third.
• Werth pulls a single passed a diving Jones at third to cut the lead to 4-1. The Braves have action in their bullpen, even with some lefties coming up (against the lefty, Gonzalez).
• Utley walks on five pitches. Maybe they should have tried to stretch Lowe out, given his easy eighth inning.
• Howard chases a low pitch early in the at bat, and Gonzalez comes back to strike him out looking with a fastball later. Two down.
• Ibanez chases a slider himself, even though it would have been ball four. Then he swings and misses a good 93 mph fastball for strike three. Horrible approach by the Phillies hitters against a guy who couldn't throw strikes.

Very good game for the Braves. They take an early lead in what should be an exciting NL East race this year. Read more ...

So He's Still Playing Baseball?

The O's signed crappy former Phillies' right-hander Adam Eaton, and Philadelphia has fired back by signing former Baltimore righty Rodrigo Lopez. At least the Orioles got a good amount of value out of their pitcher on the cheap ($34.6 M in value vs. $7.1 M in salary, from FanGraphs). The Phillies paid Eaton $15.2 M (plus another $8.45 M for 2009) for $0.6 M in value over his two years there.

I always liked Rodrigo - especially when he alternated good and bad seasons (3.57 ERA, 5.82, 3.59, 4.90 in his first four years with the team). Read more ...

Howard Worth Two Princes?

Prince Fielder just signed a two-year contract buying at a couple of his arbitration years for a total of $18 M. He hit .276/.372/.507 last year with 34 HR, .376 wOBA, 113 wOBA+ (and .419 wOBA, 123 wOBA+ in 2007).

Ryan Howard is asking the Phillies for $18 M in arbitration next year, after hitting .251/.339/.543 with 48 HR, .367 wOBA, 108 wOBA+ in 2007 (.398 wOBA, 155 wOBA+ in 2007).

I know there's service time considerations and national recognition (Howard was 2nd in NL MVP voting despite being only the 7th most valuable player on his own team last year, according to FanGraphs), but that seems kind of silly to me.

I think the arbitrator is going to go with the Phillies submitted figure of $14 M, but I wouldn't be surprised if Howard won his case. Read more ...

And It's Supposed To Be A Buyer's Market

So, the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies have replaced former #1 draft-pick Pat "The Bat" Burrell in left-field by giving a 3 year, $30 M contract to Raul Ibanez. That is, in a word, stupid.

Ibanez hit .293/.358/.479, 23 HR, .364 wOBA, 109 wOBA+ in 2008. Lets say +1.5 (bat), -1.5 (glove), -0.75 (position), +2.5 (above AL replacement), * 85% (playing time) = 1.5 WAR. That's $7.3 M for 2009, and $15.5 M for the three years. And that's if he doesn't fall off a cliff production-wise, which isn't unlikely as he's already 36 years old. Plus, he's left-handed (no more Burrell splitting up Utley and Howard) and is a Type-A free agent, which means the Phillies also lose their first round pick to the M's. Ibanez is really, really bad defensively. And I'm being optimistic about his offensive value - the four straight years with 100+ RBI don't impress me, but I still think he'll be a pretty good hitter next year.

Pat Burrell hit .250/.367/.507, 33 HR, .373 wOBA, 111 wOBA+ in 2008. +2.2 (bat), -1.5 (glove), -0.75 (position), +2 (above NL replacement), * 85% (playing time) = 1.65 WAR. $8 M for 2009 and $18 M for three years. If Burrell would have taken the same contract as Ibanez, then it made sense to take the younger, better player and save the draft-pick - though getting a player who will be worth the salary is also a possibility. Still, not offering Burrell arbitration was a bad call. One year of Burrell at $15 M (probably worst case scenario) is better than three of Ibanez at $30 M and the lost pick.

Adam Dunn hit .236/.386/.513, 40 HR (exactly, for the fourth year in a row), .385 wOBA, 114 wOBA+ in 2008. +2.3 (bat), -1.5 (glove), -0.75 (position), +2 (above NL replacement) * 85% (playing time) = 1.75 WAR. $8.5 M for 2009 and $19.5 M for three years. Dunn and Howard in the same line-up would result in a whole lot of strike-outs. But those extra walks and home runs would be nice, and he costs no draft-picks.

Bobby Abreu hit .296/.371/.471, 20 HR, .374 wOBA, 113 wOBA+ in 2008. +2.2 (bat), -1.5 (glove), -0.75 (position), +2.5 (above AL replacement) * 85% (playing time) = 2.1 WAR. $10.2 M for 2009 and $25.1 M for three years. Also a lefty, and also costs no draft-picks.

We've got four relatively similar guys who are going to get four relatively similar contracts. That Ibanez is the worst and got 3/$30 is disappointing. Plus the pick. I find it very hard to believe that Philly couldn't have gotten Burrell, Dunn, or Abreu for a similar contract. What are they going to do with Ibanez when he's 40 and making $10 M with fall-down range in left?

Or, the cheaper option:

Eric Hinske hit .247/.333/.465, 20 HR, .347 wOBA, 103 wOBA+ in 2008. +0 (bat), +0 (glove - he seems to be an OK defender in the outfield corners), -0.75 (position), +2.5 (above AL replacement) * 85% (playing time) = 1.5 WAR. There you go; just as valuable as Ibanez for a fraction of the price (and no draft-pick).

Or Juan Rivera, who's about the same. Brad Wilkerson is about 0.5 WAR worse, and I'm sure he'd be dirt cheap. Or Jerry Hariston Jr., who is a worse hitter but has a better glove. The point is that Raul Ibanez - upstanding citizen and professional hitter - is a below average baseball player who I can say with almost complete certainty won't be worth the money he'll be paid. Read more ...

Wowza

The Phillies won the World Series. I have to say, I did not see that one coming (at least until the last couple of days). I was cheering for the Rays, but congratulations to Philadelphia. Six more months and it starts all over again. Read more ...

Cupcakes Sent To Philadelphia

Billy Beane has shipped out another starting pitcher, Joe Blanton, to the Phillies in return for three prospects. That makes 40% of their starting rotation that's been sent packing (and yet the A's can still field a pitching staff - the O's lose a couple of guys to injuries, and they have to sign Victor's Zambrano and Santos).

The A’s got (courtesy of Baseball Prospectus):

Josh Outman, 23 year-old LHP, was moved from the starting rotation to the bullpen early this season and went 5-4 with one save and a 3.20 ERA in 33 games, five starts, with a 1.49 WHIP and 8.45 strikeouts and 4.73 walks per nine innings in AA.

Adrian Cardenas, 20 year-old 2B, was hitting .309/.374/.444 in A-ball.

Matt Spencer, 22 year-old OF, was batting .249/.317/.367 in A-ball.

The Phillies got:

Joe Blanton, 27 year-old RHSP, is 5-12 with a 4.96 ERA in 20 starts this season with 1.42 WHIP and 4.39 strikeouts and 2.84 walks per nine innings.

Outman has a shot of becoming a decent mid-rotation starter, or at least a swingman; Cardenas probably won’t set the world on fire, but he does have the ability to hit for average, get on base, and knock out some doubles – that he’s 16-16 in stolen base attempts this year is just a bonus; and Spencer probably won’t amount to all that much, but isn’t awful as a throw-in.

Blanton is a hittable innings-eater that has survived by limiting the long-ball. Considering he doesn’t get that many groundballs, and played in a pitcher’s park, the move to homer-friendly Citizen’s Bank may well do more harm than good (even considering the switch to the NL). Philadelphia will have control of Blanton through 2010, but it’ll his arbitration years instead of as part of a long-term contract, so he won’t be getting that much less than his market price.

I like this deal a for the A’s. They don’t really hurt themselves much by giving up Blanton; get a guy that may eventually replace him in Outman; and add another talented middle-infielder to their system. With the Angels 9 games ahead of them in the AL West, and clearly the better team, it was smart of Beane to start moving pitchers when few are available (with Erik Bedard being the notable exception, but he’s apparently out until August anyway). Huston Street may find himself in a different uniform in the coming weeks also (perhaps the Mets, with Billy Wagner experiencing some shoulder pain). The Phillies do strengthen their rotation a little, but I don’t know if it’ll be enough to hold off the Mets. This is the kind of deal I could have seen given Blanton’s value before the season started, but with the way he’s pitched this year I didn’t think a team would give up this much for him. Read more ...