Offense & Pitching Both Click For O's

Guess it wasn't just Matt Wieters being behind the plate - Brad Bergesen is just on a roll. After games of 8 IP (0 R), 7 IP (2 R), and 8 IP (2 R), this time Berg finished things out himself. He only gave up 2 runs (on a pair of solo home runs by Dave Ross), walked 2, and struck out 3. That drops his ERA to a very solid 3.79, though his tRA is still high(it was 5.32 coming into this game).

The offense built on what it did yesterday against Derek Lowe, putting a total of 11 runs on the board. Every Oriole had a hit - and the team walked 9 times - with Ty Wigginton swinging the biggest stick. Wiggy went 3-4 with a couple home runs, drove in 3, and scored 4 times (he had 10 runs scored total for the season before today).

The 11-2 win gives the O's the series win against the Braves, and they'll head up to New York to play the Mets starting Tuesday. Read more ...

O's Offense Comes To Life

It's been 15 games since the O's have put 8 runs on the board, and 13 games since they've scored even 5 runs. Well the did the former against the Atlanta Braves tonight, and the letter in the seventh inning alone (they scored 6 to take an 8-4 lead, which ended up being the final score).

Rich Hill had his second bad start in a row, walking 3 (to one K) while giving up 4 runs in 4 IP. Brian Bass did what he's done many times this year - come into a game after a starter gets knocked out early and give the team some solid inning. He pitched 3 scoreless and picked up a win for his troubles, with Danys Baez and George Sherrill closing the door in the last two inning.

Brian Roberts paced the O's attack with a four-hit game, Adam Jones went Yard, and Melvin Mora and Nolan Reimold each had three hits. Nick Markakis walked twice (for the first time since May 17th) and has four free passes in his last five games - that may indicate that he's starting to pull out of his slump.

Given the sad play of late from the team - and tomorrow being Sunday, which isn't promising for a win (they're 1-8 this year) - I'm not going to say they're going to turn things completely around now. But I can hope so. Maybe September just came early this year. Read more ...

Braves-Phillies, Lowe Dominates-Myers Doesn't

The Philadelphia Phillies begin their defense of their Championship against the Braves to kick off the 2009 baseball season. Jon Miller and Joe Morgan are being joined in the broadcast booth by Steve Phillips, so this should be fun. Maybe having Steve say a lot of dumb things will free Joe to do what he's best at - explain in-game things (such as the positioning of defenders or pitch sequencing). And give credit where it's due; Joe really is very knowledgeable about that kind of stuff. The problem is how consistently he talks about other things that he doesn't understand very well.

With Cole Hamels injured, it'll be (hopefully just former) wife-beater Brett Myers on the hill for Philly. Funny how nobody cares about that, but Bonds and A-Rod are demonized for taking something to be better at baseball. [It was still wrong of them, but I think the double-standard isn't really fair.]

Top 1:

• Kelly Johnson flies out to start things off.
• Yunel Escobar swings at the first pitch and grounds out to short.
• Chipper Jones up, and the stats that ESN puts up contain OPS, along with an explanation. Jon Miller is going over it on the broadcast, and they also show the league average. Small steps, but they're getting there. Larry singles to left-center and is now hitting 1.000 on the season. Obviously that means he's going to make another run at .400.
• Brian McCann crushes one to deep right, and the Braves have an early lead, 2-0. Change-up in the middle of the plate that McCann just unloaded on.
• Garrett Anderson, "Professional Hitter", grounds out to first to end the inning. Hey, at least he can play defense a little.
  

Bottom 1:

• Patented Derek Lowe sinker for ball one to Jimmy Rollins. J-Roll (I assum that's how that works with him) grounds to the sure-handed Casey Kotchman at first.
• Jason Werth, who had a great under-the-radar season in 2008, pops out.
• It was questionable if Chase Utley would be ready for Opening Day, but he's in there. Utley with a drive to deep right, but Frenchy is able to track it down.

Top 2:

• Jeff Francouer swings at the first pitch (nothing new) and hits a line-drive in the seats in left. 3-0, Braves. Keith Law was asked in a chat recently which would be bigger; the number of Oreos he could eat in a single sitting, or the number of walks Francouer would draw this year. Answer: Oreos. Considering Frenchy should get about 35 free passes, that provides some interesting info. about the Klaw.
• Kotchman goes down swinging.
  
• Jordaon Schafer (who's white, apperently) homers to left-center in his first major-league at bat. Fastball a little down and away, and Schafer went with it to the opposite field.
• Myers gets Lowe for his second strike-out.
• Johnson - batting for the second time in asmany innings - flies to center for the second time.
  

Bottom 2:

• A whole bunch of sliders eventually gets Ryan Howard swinging.
• Raul Ibanez and Shane Victorino both ground out to short. Lowe is doing his thing.
  

Top 3:

• Another long drive off Myers - this time by Escobar. It bounces high off the left-center wall, and Yunel goes into second standing with a lead-off double.
• Sharp 3-2 curveball gets Chipper swinging.
• McCann pops out to third.
  
• Anderson grounds to first again to end the inning.
  

Bottom 3:

• A double by Carlos Ruiz but he's left stranded. Still 4-0.
  

Top 4:

• Two-out single by Schafer up the middle, but Myers retires Lowe to end the inning.
  

Bottom 4:

• Werth grounds to third, with Kotchman picking Chippers throw out of the dirt.
  
• Now a great diving stop by Kotchman at first, with the throw to Lowe covering to get Utley.
• Howard grounds to Escobar on the right side of second-base (they had the shift on) for the third out.
  

Top 5:

• Myers sets Johnson down for his fourth K of the game.
• Escobar grounds out to his counterpart at short.
• Chipper with a drive to deep center goes over Victorino's head (the Flyin' Hawaiian didn't take the best route to the ball) and bounces over the wall for a ground-rule double.
• Strike-out number five send McCann (and Jones, I guess) back to the dugout.
  

Bottom 5:

• Ibanez grounds out to short again. Wonder when they'll regret that contract. 2010? June? Last month, maybe?
• Victorino swings and misses another Lowe sinker for the pitcher's second K tonight.
• Joe Morgan is talking about how much Gary Sheffield means to a team. I can't wait until Sheff retires, if for no other reason than to shut Joe up about him.
• Feliz goes down swinging. Through five innings the Phillies have had one baserunner.
  

Top 6:

• Anderson starts things off with a single, and moves around to third on a couple of groundouts.
• Myers intentionally walks Schafer, after the rookie had a couple of hits (including that homer) in his first two at bat.
• Lowe tries to drop down a bunt, but it goes foul before Ruiz could get to it. After getting ahead 0-2 and then falling behind 3-2, Myers comes back to get Lowe looking.
  

Bottom 6:

• Jimmy Rollins picks up the Phillies' second hit of the game, singling up the middle with two outs. Greg Dobbs pinch-hit for Myers, so there will be someone new on the mound in the next inning.
• Werth lines one up the middle, but Lowe is able to snag it for the third out.
  

Top 7:

• Lefty Jack Taschner in from the Philadelphia pen. He gets Johnson to ground out to second to start the seventh.
• Escobar follows suit.
• Chipper goes down looking on a fastball off the outside corner. Early on it looked like this might be a blowout, but the Phillies still need to cut into the 4-0 Braves lead soon.
  

Bottom 7:

• Another 1-2-3 innging for Lowe (including two more groundouts).
  

Top 8:

• With two outs, Chad Durbin is brought in to face Francouer, who's 0-8 against him in his career. Jon Miller - the chances of Francouer getting on are low. Steve Phillips - he's due. Me - you're both idiots that don't understand what small sample size means, but Jon is less wrong since Frenchy's chances of getting on-base in general aren't that good (31.2% career). He strikes out, by the way.
  

Bottom 8:

• Lowe still working on his shutout, gets Victorino to tap one back to the mound on the first pitch.
• Feliz strikes out swinging.
• Ruiz grounds out to short. Didn't the Phillies lead the NL in runs last year?

Top 9:

• Brad Lidge in for the ninth, and he retires the Braves in order.
  

Bottom 9:

• It is the first game of the season, so I understand Atlanta bringing in closer Mike Gonzlez despite Lowe only throwing 97 pitches in his eight shutout innings. Derek had both the sinker and the breaking-ball working, and his control was excellent. Not much the Phillies could have done against that.
• Pinch-hitter Eric Bruntlett doubles down the left-field line (off the chalk, infact) to start the Philadelphia attack in the ninth.
• Rollins lines out to right, with Bruntlett moving over to third.
• Werth pulls a single passed a diving Jones at third to cut the lead to 4-1. The Braves have action in their bullpen, even with some lefties coming up (against the lefty, Gonzalez).
• Utley walks on five pitches. Maybe they should have tried to stretch Lowe out, given his easy eighth inning.
• Howard chases a low pitch early in the at bat, and Gonzalez comes back to strike him out looking with a fastball later. Two down.
• Ibanez chases a slider himself, even though it would have been ball four. Then he swings and misses a good 93 mph fastball for strike three. Horrible approach by the Phillies hitters against a guy who couldn't throw strikes.

Very good game for the Braves. They take an early lead in what should be an exciting NL East race this year. Read more ...

Tex On The Move Mid-Season Again

Another big-time deal going down, with Atlanta finally deciding to become sellers and the Angels upgrading for the play-offs.

The Angels got:

Mark Teixeira, 28 year-old 1B, hitting .283/.390/.512 this year. He's making $12.5 MM in his last year before free-agency.

The Braves got:

Casey Kotchman, 25 year-old 1B, hitting .287/.327/.448 this year. He's making $1.45 MM and is under team control through 2011.

Stephen Marek, 24 year-old RHRP, 3.66 ERA in 46.2 IP in AA this year with 57 K's, 21 BB's, and a 1.29 WHIP. No major league experience.

The updated Marcel projections for Teixeira has him at .289/.382/.524, while Kotchman is at .281/.343/.444. Lets take their value one at a time.

Teixeira is projected to have a .385 wOBA, making his bat worth about 2.2 WAR. He's a first-baseman (-1) in the NL (+2), but a good defensive one (+1). Add it all up and adjust for playing time, and he's worth about 3.8 WAR a year, which costs around $17 MM. That means the Angels will get about $1.5 MM in excess value ($17 - $12.5 times the portion of the season that's left).

If the Angels don't sign him after the season (and they very well may now that they'll have a spot open at first) then they'll also receive draft-pick compensation. Those picks would be worth (based on research done by others on average draftee value) about $16.6 MM in excess value. LA was already almost assured of a play-off spot, so Teixeira doesn't get any credit for improving their chances.

Casey Kotchman is projected to have a .342 wOBA, making his bat worth about 0.3 WAR. He's a first-baseman (-1) in the AL (+2.5), but also a good defensive one (+1). He's not that healthiest guy around, so he gets docked a little playing-time. Add it all up and he's worth about 2.3 WAR a year. Assuming some improvement as he approaches the normal peak years for a player, about 10% salary increases from the $4.4 MM per WAR teams pay this year, and arbitration rates of 40%, 60%, and 80% of what a player's worth, the Braves should get in the neighborhood of $20 MM in excess value from Kotchman.

The Braves also received an OK bullpen prospect in Marek, who I will consider a bonus for Atlanta. He has good stuff, but is old for his level and I don't want to project how much he may be worth (I'd say about $5 MM for the years that Atlanta controls him, but that's just an educated guess).

That means that, assuming LA lets Tex walk at the end of the year, the deal is pretty close to even. The Angels get $18.1 MM in value (and probably improve their chances a little once they actually get to the play-offs) and the Braves get $20 MM in value from Kotchman and whatever Marek ends up contributing. In any case, I think the Braves did pretty well, replacing Tex with a younger and cheaper (though not as productive) first-baseman. If the Angels win the World Series as Tex hits 10 homers in the play-offs, then I don't think they'll have any regrets.

The other thing to consider is what happens to the O's chances of signing Teixeira in the off-season. The Angels will now be major players for him, and they've shown in the past that they are willing to open up the check book. That he probably isn't going to be worth very close to what he's likely to get is an issue for me, as I'd like to see him in the middle of the O's line-up. The chances of the bidding being below $20 MM a year are remote, and so I recommend Andy MacPhail steer clear. Read more ...

Fallen Brave

John Smoltz will not be filling the role of the Braves' closer this year. He will be undergoing season (and maybe career) ending shoulder surgery. That is a big hit for Atlanta, even beyond having already lost him as a starter. While this is sad news, it opens up the possibility that six years from now, we may see the induction of the Big Three - Smoltz, Greg Maddux, and Tom Glavine - into the Hall of Fame together. How awesome would that be? Of course Smoltzy could still come back, and Maddux could certainly pitch until he doesn't want to anymore (I really think he could still get hitters out at age 50). There will be some that don't think Glavine or Smoltz should get in on the first ballot (with the lefty getting the benefit of the doubt because of the 300 wins), I think it would be amazing to see. Hey, if Griffey Jr. and Frank Thomas retire after this year too, then that could be one of the best induction classes ever. Then if Bonds plays some this year before hanging them up... jeez. I respect that Smoltz is going to try to come back - at age 41 it will be extremely difficult, but he still loves the game and thinks he can contribute, and I wish him luck. Read more ...