The Anaheim Angels (no, I don't care that that's not their name anymore) signed good-hit, no-field outfielder Bobby Abreu for one year, $5 M plus incentives up to $8 M-ish total.
The Washington Nationals signed good-hit, no-field outfielder Adam Dunn (though they'll probably play him at first) for two years, $20 M.
The Tampa Bay Rays signed good-hit, no-field outfielder Pat Burrell (though they'll mostly DH him) for two years, $16 M.
The Philadelphia Phillies signed good-hit, no-field Raul Ibanez (the worst and oldest of these four players and the only one for whom the signing team had to give up a draft-pick) for three years, $30 M. And they can't DH him.
Which of these things is not like the others?
Read more ...
Showing posts with label Raul Ibanez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Raul Ibanez. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Friday, December 12, 2008
And It's Supposed To Be A Buyer's Market
So, the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies have replaced former #1 draft-pick Pat "The Bat" Burrell in left-field by giving a 3 year, $30 M contract to Raul Ibanez. That is, in a word, stupid.
Ibanez hit .293/.358/.479, 23 HR, .364 wOBA, 109 wOBA+ in 2008. Lets say +1.5 (bat), -1.5 (glove), -0.75 (position), +2.5 (above AL replacement), * 85% (playing time) = 1.5 WAR. That's $7.3 M for 2009, and $15.5 M for the three years. And that's if he doesn't fall off a cliff production-wise, which isn't unlikely as he's already 36 years old. Plus, he's left-handed (no more Burrell splitting up Utley and Howard) and is a Type-A free agent, which means the Phillies also lose their first round pick to the M's. Ibanez is really, really bad defensively. And I'm being optimistic about his offensive value - the four straight years with 100+ RBI don't impress me, but I still think he'll be a pretty good hitter next year.
Pat Burrell hit .250/.367/.507, 33 HR, .373 wOBA, 111 wOBA+ in 2008. +2.2 (bat), -1.5 (glove), -0.75 (position), +2 (above NL replacement), * 85% (playing time) = 1.65 WAR. $8 M for 2009 and $18 M for three years. If Burrell would have taken the same contract as Ibanez, then it made sense to take the younger, better player and save the draft-pick - though getting a player who will be worth the salary is also a possibility. Still, not offering Burrell arbitration was a bad call. One year of Burrell at $15 M (probably worst case scenario) is better than three of Ibanez at $30 M and the lost pick.
Adam Dunn hit .236/.386/.513, 40 HR (exactly, for the fourth year in a row), .385 wOBA, 114 wOBA+ in 2008. +2.3 (bat), -1.5 (glove), -0.75 (position), +2 (above NL replacement) * 85% (playing time) = 1.75 WAR. $8.5 M for 2009 and $19.5 M for three years. Dunn and Howard in the same line-up would result in a whole lot of strike-outs. But those extra walks and home runs would be nice, and he costs no draft-picks.
Bobby Abreu hit .296/.371/.471, 20 HR, .374 wOBA, 113 wOBA+ in 2008. +2.2 (bat), -1.5 (glove), -0.75 (position), +2.5 (above AL replacement) * 85% (playing time) = 2.1 WAR. $10.2 M for 2009 and $25.1 M for three years. Also a lefty, and also costs no draft-picks.
We've got four relatively similar guys who are going to get four relatively similar contracts. That Ibanez is the worst and got 3/$30 is disappointing. Plus the pick. I find it very hard to believe that Philly couldn't have gotten Burrell, Dunn, or Abreu for a similar contract. What are they going to do with Ibanez when he's 40 and making $10 M with fall-down range in left?
Or, the cheaper option:
Eric Hinske hit .247/.333/.465, 20 HR, .347 wOBA, 103 wOBA+ in 2008. +0 (bat), +0 (glove - he seems to be an OK defender in the outfield corners), -0.75 (position), +2.5 (above AL replacement) * 85% (playing time) = 1.5 WAR. There you go; just as valuable as Ibanez for a fraction of the price (and no draft-pick).
Or Juan Rivera, who's about the same. Brad Wilkerson is about 0.5 WAR worse, and I'm sure he'd be dirt cheap. Or Jerry Hariston Jr., who is a worse hitter but has a better glove. The point is that Raul Ibanez - upstanding citizen and professional hitter - is a below average baseball player who I can say with almost complete certainty won't be worth the money he'll be paid. Read more ...
Ibanez hit .293/.358/.479, 23 HR, .364 wOBA, 109 wOBA+ in 2008. Lets say +1.5 (bat), -1.5 (glove), -0.75 (position), +2.5 (above AL replacement), * 85% (playing time) = 1.5 WAR. That's $7.3 M for 2009, and $15.5 M for the three years. And that's if he doesn't fall off a cliff production-wise, which isn't unlikely as he's already 36 years old. Plus, he's left-handed (no more Burrell splitting up Utley and Howard) and is a Type-A free agent, which means the Phillies also lose their first round pick to the M's. Ibanez is really, really bad defensively. And I'm being optimistic about his offensive value - the four straight years with 100+ RBI don't impress me, but I still think he'll be a pretty good hitter next year.
Pat Burrell hit .250/.367/.507, 33 HR, .373 wOBA, 111 wOBA+ in 2008. +2.2 (bat), -1.5 (glove), -0.75 (position), +2 (above NL replacement), * 85% (playing time) = 1.65 WAR. $8 M for 2009 and $18 M for three years. If Burrell would have taken the same contract as Ibanez, then it made sense to take the younger, better player and save the draft-pick - though getting a player who will be worth the salary is also a possibility. Still, not offering Burrell arbitration was a bad call. One year of Burrell at $15 M (probably worst case scenario) is better than three of Ibanez at $30 M and the lost pick.
Adam Dunn hit .236/.386/.513, 40 HR (exactly, for the fourth year in a row), .385 wOBA, 114 wOBA+ in 2008. +2.3 (bat), -1.5 (glove), -0.75 (position), +2 (above NL replacement) * 85% (playing time) = 1.75 WAR. $8.5 M for 2009 and $19.5 M for three years. Dunn and Howard in the same line-up would result in a whole lot of strike-outs. But those extra walks and home runs would be nice, and he costs no draft-picks.
Bobby Abreu hit .296/.371/.471, 20 HR, .374 wOBA, 113 wOBA+ in 2008. +2.2 (bat), -1.5 (glove), -0.75 (position), +2.5 (above AL replacement) * 85% (playing time) = 2.1 WAR. $10.2 M for 2009 and $25.1 M for three years. Also a lefty, and also costs no draft-picks.
We've got four relatively similar guys who are going to get four relatively similar contracts. That Ibanez is the worst and got 3/$30 is disappointing. Plus the pick. I find it very hard to believe that Philly couldn't have gotten Burrell, Dunn, or Abreu for a similar contract. What are they going to do with Ibanez when he's 40 and making $10 M with fall-down range in left?
Or, the cheaper option:
Eric Hinske hit .247/.333/.465, 20 HR, .347 wOBA, 103 wOBA+ in 2008. +0 (bat), +0 (glove - he seems to be an OK defender in the outfield corners), -0.75 (position), +2.5 (above AL replacement) * 85% (playing time) = 1.5 WAR. There you go; just as valuable as Ibanez for a fraction of the price (and no draft-pick).
Or Juan Rivera, who's about the same. Brad Wilkerson is about 0.5 WAR worse, and I'm sure he'd be dirt cheap. Or Jerry Hariston Jr., who is a worse hitter but has a better glove. The point is that Raul Ibanez - upstanding citizen and professional hitter - is a below average baseball player who I can say with almost complete certainty won't be worth the money he'll be paid. Read more ...
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
