Fantasy Baseball Draft 2

I'm going to be writing about this draft as I go, with some analysis at the end.

Pre-draft: I have the 9th overall pick. I'm looking at Jimmy Rollins in this spot. I don't think he'll hit as well as he did last year, but those numbers from SS are pretty valuable and he'll score a ton of runs at the top of a potent Philly offense. I'd be OK taking Prince Fielder also.

Round 1: And Jimmy Rollins it was. First round went about as expected, except Chase Utley got taken before David Wright.
Round 2: Grady Sizemore, as I had expected. That's a ton of runs for my team and a solid HR and SB base from which to work. A big time RBI 1B will be good.
Round 3: RBI 1B? Justin Morneau. Hopefully an improved Twins offense gets him some good numbers and the batting average comes back up to MVP levels
Round 4: Brandon Webb gives me my #1 starter. I'm not going to get to pick again for a while and will likely miss out on Nick Markakis now. Targeting Rickie Weeks at 2B, Ryan Zimmerman at 3B, Geovany Soto at C, Corey Hart at OF.
Round 5: Markakis is gone 5 picks before me. Garrett Atkins at 3B was available and the boost to batting average was a need. There wasn't another value pick here.
Round 6: Damn, Hart is taken before his ranking. Looks like I won't need Weeks as I picked Ian Kinsler for 2B. I didn't want him quite this early, but there wasn't a much better choice (Dan Haren maybe?). It's so much better building steals up from multiple sources as opposed to getting a guy like Juan Pierre who only adds in one or two categories.
Round 7: Batting average definitely needs some work. Tim Lincecum should be in the bag in round 8. For now it looks like I have my choice of #2 starters. I do like to have that strong pitching staff. And my #2 starter is... John Smoltz. I don't usually pick older pitchers like Smoltzy, but I think he was good value at this position. He'll break down eventually - hopefully not in 2008.
Round 8: I folded under pressure. Chris Young (SDP SP) was still available and I couldn't take Lincecum over him, but I couldn't take Young over an outfielder so I took Brad Hawpe. Hawpe helped me out last year and so I took another flier on him. Taking a 1B who hits better than Hawpe was another choice, but I didn't want to risk getting left with a bad OF. Two Rockies in the starting line-up so far.
Round 9: Wow, if things go right in the next 5 picks, Lincecum will still be left. Otherwise Nick Swisher's a possibility. Tim Lincecum - 9th round selection. If he gets 180 innings he may K 200. Might only win 10 games, though.
Round 10: No saves yet, and I still need some BA. Come on Jeff Francoeur, let's hit .300 this year! At least the man understands that plate discipline is important.
Round 11: Either Rich Hill or Yovanni Gallardo look like they'll be left for me here.
After that I'll look for some saves (Matt Capps?), followed by maybe another starter (Ian Snell?). I feel like I'm getting too much pitching at the expense of offense, but that may not be the case. On the other hand, if he's there I think I need to take Matt Kemp. Which apparently happened as my computer froze. Thankfully I had clicked on him last.
Round 12: I should have taken Capps here - I still have no saves - but Gallardo couldn't be passed up.
Round 13: Damn, Soto was taken. I now have no catcher. Dustin McGowan was picked to round out a sick starting staff. They're young (minus Smoltz) but boy can they bring it.
Round 14: OK - saves and catcher, here we go. Joakim Soria - #1 Closer. Great Rule 5 pick by the Royals last year.
Round 15: All I need is a catcher that can hit .300 20 HR 15 SB. Yeah, right. I don't have any hitters who do well at any one thing. Morneau should lead the team in HR with 31 (projected). If Rollins could hit 30 again I would be happy. Cracked under the pressure and picked JR Towles before I had to. Still, double-digit steals from catcher is rare.
Round 16: Jim Thome fell so far that I can't not pick him. That kind of power is not freely available, even if it's just from the Util. spot. And after my pick comes a run on the back-end closers. Hopefully CJ Wilson lasts till me in 17.
Round 17: And he does. One more closer to go, and then some bench spots to fill.
Round 18: Ramon Hernandez to provide for some insurance for Towles. Ramon is supposed to be in better shape this year. 20 HR?
Round 19: Asdrubal Cabrera takes what was going to be Yunel Escobar's spot as multi-position back-up. 2B and SS are covered. Now 3rd and another RP (Sherrill?)
Round 20: And here goes Sherrill. I can't believe Rich Harden lasted this long. If he gets hurt they lose nothing. If he doesn't get hurt then they get 8th round production in the 20th. Great pick. Too bad I didn't need any more starters.
Round 21: Back-up 3B? OF? 1B? We'll see who the best player left is. I don't need another outfielder. I should have picked Aubrey Huff and his 1B / 3B eligibility, but Jay Bruce may be awesome. If he plays all year he might hit .275 25 75 80 10, which is great value at this point. Nobody will pick Huff up, so he'll always be out there.

Main Offense Totals: 0.286, 786 R, 201 HR, 762 RBI, 115 SB
The offense actually projects to be worse than the first drafts'. It's the lack of a big bopper (Braun) and a hole at catcher (there was really no way to tell when Soto was going to be taken - I just guessed wrong). Hopefully some of the guys have good years. Thome should make up for the lack of power but finding some batting average will be tougher. It's all about luck at that point.

Main Pitching Totals: 3.55 ERA, 74 W, 48 SV, 1022 K, 1.24 WHIP
Now this is a pitching staff. Saves will be there (3 x 30 = 90) and the Ks and rates are very good.

It seems I was right - I did pick pitching at the expense of offense. I couldn't resist passing up a Gallardo or a McGowan in favor of a bat that was ranked much lower overall. There were plenty of quality arms left later (Snell, Blanton, Greinke) and next time I'll be more flexible with the market as opposed to picking the guys that I like the best. There is some definite upside on offense though. In my opinion, everyone except Kemp could beat their projections pretty easily. An extra couple HR from each guy jumps the total to 219. If Thome has another big year then the RBI will be there. It's about how my teams generally look - young, with top shelf pitching and some low budget closer, and an offense with a hole or two but several multi-category contributors. Maybe a trade of an outfielder (like Bruce it he gets off to a hot start) can net me an upgrade at catcher or ?. I hope Kemp gets to play every day. Man, what a pitching staff. There are four guys who could have years as good as my #1 in the other draft. Read more ...

Fantasy Baseball Draft 1

I was supposed to have my first fantasy baseball draft of the year on Sunday, but I go distracted watching MacGyver (seriously, that is an amazing show. That stuff probably wouldn't work in real life very often but it was very cool to see and hear explained. I assumed this was true, but no to the extent that it merited mentioning but apparently in some countries, a Swiss Army is sometimes referred to as a "MacGyver knife" and duct-tape as "MacGyver tape") and didn't realize. By the time I remembered (about when Axminster makes his first appearance on-screen. That character was a horrible bad-guy. He looked ridiculous, and didn't seem to be a terribly good assassin.) the draft was over. I was prepared for the worst, but I have to say that I am very pleased with the team that was auto-picked for me. I would have made a few choices differently, especially in the last few rounds, but I think it should be alright. Let's take a look.

C: Victor Martinez (Round 3) - I miss the days when I took V-Mart near the end of the draft. Not a bad pick here either, as I already have some average and speed, so getting the best power hitting C is nice. Maybe extra time at first will allow him to play more games.
Projected: .303, 78 R, 21 HR, 97 RBI, 0 SB
1B: Adrian Gonzalez (Round 9) - It looks like the computer decided it likes Kevin Towers' trade with the Rangers too (what a horrible deal for Texas - they gave up Gonzalez, Young, and Termell Sledge for Adam Eaton, who pitched poorly and got hurt, and Akinori Otsuka, who pitched pretty well and got hurt). He's a first baseman that I was going to keep an eye on anyway, and considering what was left at the position, it's not a bad pick here. If th power does continue to go up then this will be pretty good.
Projected: .282, 88 R, 28 HR, 95 RBI, 1 SB
2B: Chase Utley (Round 1 #8) - I don't love the pick here as second base position scarcity isn't a huge issue for me. Still, getting the consensus #1 guy at a position, let alone a guy who can provide 1B / OF type numbers from 2B, isn't bad. I probably would have taken Jimmy Rollins here, though.
Projected: .304, 109 R, 28 HR, 104 RBI, 11 SB
3B: Ryan Braun (Round 2) - I'm a huge fan of the Hebrew Hammer (though, apparently, he isn't really Jewish). The average is going to go down, but I really need the power, having not gotten a big-time 1B. The eventual OF eligibility is a nice bonus. Nice value, considering he is commonly going in the first round.
Projected: .304, 105 R, 38 HR, 106 RBI, 17 SB
SS: Carlos Guillen (Round 5) - Definitely not what I would have done here. Guillen is the type of player that I would never pick, even though he is underrated in real baseball. He's a bit injury prone, and I don't think the move to 1B is going to do much for his knees. I would have taken a #1 starter here if I hadn't before.
Projected: .300, 84 R, 18 HR, 82 RBI, 11 SB
OF: Nick Markakis (Round 6) - This is what kept me from being too mad I missed the draft. Awesome; just awesome. He was one of the top 40 by the end of last year. I just have no words for how lucky I feel that the computer actually picked him. It's like it knew I was an O's fan.
Projected: .295, 92 R, 23 HR, 97 RBI, 12 SB and I personally think the HR and RBI numbers will be higher.
OF: Shane Victorino (Round 10) - I was hoping that the Flyin' Hawaiian would have a bit of a power spike, but it appears that isn't in the cards. Hopefully the steals will be up again, and the runs should be there.
Projected: .280, 76 R, 11 HR, 51 RBI, 24 SB
OF: Jermaine Dye (Round 11) - I'm not high on the Pale Hose, but I really needed some power and Dye should provide it. If he gets a bit lucky this year (he was unlucky with batting average in '07) then this should be good value. Maybe having some guys with solid OBPs in the line-up will help the RBI numbers even more.
Projected: .272, 79 R, 31 HR, 91 RBI, 4 SB
B: Brian Roberts (Round 4) - This was an awful pick for me, as I already had a 2B. In this spot I would have much rather picked a #1 starter or gotten some more power (Hafner or Dunn). Hopefully I can get value from him in a trade, or I can keep him in my utility spot for some R and SB.
Projected: .285, 96 R, 12 HR, 63 RBI, 37 SB
B: Kevin Youkilis(Round 17) - The Greek God of Walks. He'll probably never live down that nickname. He's another guy who's more valuable in real baseball. I don't really need him for anything, but he provides some roster flexibility with the multiple positions. Who knows, maybe he'll bat 2nd and score 120 runs.
Projected: .279, 87 R, 15 HR, 75 RBI, 4 SB
B: Orlando Hudson (Round 18) - Why? Why another 2B? What could I possibly need him for? I shouldn't even bother trading him, as as soon as I get rid of Roberts no one will need the O-Dog. Lost out on Jeremy Hermida, Justin Upton, Evan Longoria, Gil Meche, and Joey Votto.
Projected: .288, 76 R, 12 HR, 66 RBI, 9 SB
B: Gary Matthews Jr. (Round 19) - Sarge Jr. Never would I ever pick him (because I don't like him, and probably neither do the Angels at $10 million a year), especially with the crowded and dysfunctional OF situation in Anaheim. (Note: That was unintentional. They do still play in Anaheim though.)
Projected: .268, 77 R, 15 HR, 66 RBI, 12 SB
B: Adam LaRoche (Round 20) - Very little in that line-up to work with. Does provide some power off the bench.
Projected: .274, 73 R, 25 HR, 86 RBI, 1 SB

SP: Chris Young (Round 8) - No way do I take Young here. He isn't a #1 and so isn't worthy of this pick. I would have taken another outfielder (Nick Swisher) or Tim Lincecum here. Lincecum probably isn't going to provide much more value than Young, but I like him more (bad reasoning, I know, but still).
Projected: 3.48 ERA, 12 W, 0 SV, 164 K, 1.19 WHIP
SP: Jeff Francis (Round 13) - I wouldn't have picked Francis, as I think his K-rate is going to go down from last year and his hit and walk rates will go up. Ian Snell would have been much preferable.
Projected: 4.32 ERA, 14 W, 0 SV, 145 K, 1.37 WHIP
RP: Fransisco Rodriguez (Round 7) - I never pick K-Rod; the injury risk is just too scary for me. Still, he is one of the top closers in baseball and is pitching for a contract. I tend to go against the usual (advanced) strategies and pick a type-flight closer or two, to go along with the typical scouring for saves on the waiver wire (which is what I (hopefully) did). If he's healthy, he'll rack up some quality numbers.
Projected: 2.65 ERA, 4 W, 42 SV, 93 K, 1.19 WHIP
RP: Jeremy Guthrie (Round 16) - Boo! I am not a believer in Guthrie having another season like he did last year. I'll probably drop him as soon as I find someone else (and it looks like I'm going to need some Ks).
Matt Garza, Josh Hamilton and Pat Burrell would all have been better (along with any number of other players).
Projected: 4.47 ERA, 8 W, 0 SV, 108 K, 1.39 WHIP
P: AJ Burnett (Round 12) - When he's healthy he's so good (especially against the Orioles, it seems) and maybe playing for a contract will help keep him on the field.
Projected: 3.71 ERA, 11 W, 0SV, 163 K, 1.25 WHIP
P: Phil Hughes (Round 14) - I like Hughes, but not this much. The rates will be good, but I don't think he is going to pitch enough innings to be a legit #3 pitcher here. Maybe the Yanks push him to 180 innings or so.
Projected: 4.10 ERA, 10 W, 0 SV, 116 K, 1.31 WHIP
P: Joe Blanton (Round 15) - Blanton, as long as he stays in OAK, should be a good pick this year. The Hardball Times did a thing about quality starts that indicated that Blanton is a break-out candidate in '08.
Projected: 4.07 ERA, 14 W, 0 SV, 123 K, 1.31 WHIP
P: Ubaldo Jimenez (Round 21) - Not bad for a flyer in the last round. I don't think he'll do much for me and is going to get cut as soon as I need someone else. Maybe I can package him with Hudson?
Projected: 4.90 ERA, 9 W, 0 SV, 117 K, 1.52 WHIP

Line-Up Totals: about .292, 807 R, 210 HR, 786 RBI, 117 SB
Need for competitive team: about .295, 820 R, 210 HR, 795 RBI, 120 SB

Wow, that's pretty darn good. I'm surprised by the home run totals - I would have thought that giving the utility spot to Brian Roberts would have hurt me there, but I guess that's what happens when you have power up the middle (C, 2B, SS) and Ryan Braun at third. I think this offense could be very solid, and if I can pick up a player or two from the waiver wire then I'll be set. Batting average is fluky so that could go either way: otherwise, good job on the starting nine computer. The bench will require some work (I'll need a SS and C, and maybe OF).


Main Pitching Totals: about 3.82 ERA, 65 W, 42 SV, 804 K, 1.24 WHIP
Need for competitive team: about 3.70 ERA, 75 W, 110 SV, 1000 K, 1.25 WHIP

I definitely needed some more saves so I waived Sarge Jr. in favor of Texas closer CJ Wilson and Adam LaRoche for the O's predicted stopper, George Sherrill. In retrospect I should have dropped Hudson or Jimenez instead of LaRoche, but it should be fine. The ERA is going to be tight - the lack of a real #1 starter hurts a little here, as well as the Ks - but streaming in a few top relief pitchers should help out. Wins are always a crap-shoot, but it looks to be OK, and the WHIP is pretty good - the pitchers all have pretty good control. If I can find one guy for Ks (Daniel Cabrera?) and then pick up a Greg Maddux type for some wins and WHIP (and maybe a little lucky ERA help) I should be good. It's definitely not like last year (Bedard + Sabathia + Rich Hill + Ben Sheets - I also had Chris Carpenter, who got hurt. That is some sick pitching. Or another team had Bedard + Hill + Peavy + Lincecum. Awesome. Or, less awesome but still really good: Haren + Webb (It's like I saw the trade coming) + Vazquez + Matsuzaka) but I think it'll keep me up there. I like to have a strong pitching staff. Hopefully the second (and third, and fourth) tier guys do well.

I have another one tonight that I'll be there for. A posting about it will be up soon (tomorrow?). Read more ...