Sicker

I didn't feel well today, and now I feel worse.

Mark Teixeira has agreed to an eight year $180 M contract with the New York Yankees. The Yanks have signed the top three free agents on the market (Tex, CC Sabathia, and AJ Burnet) for a grand total of $423.5 M. The now have the four highest paid players in the majors (Tex, CC, A-Rod, and Jeter). It's a fine deal - just about right on the money actually - though the Orioles apparently didn't budge from their first offer of 7/$140 M (even if they claimed that they were flexible). Teixeira is from Maryland, but his favorite player was Don Mattingley (he wears Donny Baseball's number) and so it's not a very surprising outcome. The Red Sox looked like the favorites for a while, but New York came in at the last minute with a higher offer (by $12 M).

My first reaction was "I'm done with baseball." The real test will be how long the Rays can stay competitive. They are very smart and have a lot of talent, but are extremely limited financially. If they can't keep up with Evil Empire and Evil Empire Jr. for more than a couple of years every decade then clearly the system is very broken (as opposed to just kind of broken, which it is right now at a minimum - the Yankees' payroll may be bigger than the four lowest teams combined). That the Orioles can't compete shouldn't really be blamed on money as much as being a very poorly run team.

Still, it's pretty depressing. The chances of Brian Roberts signing an extension now (for less than market value if not over) have gone down, and Nick Markakis' willingness to go through arbitration and then test the market has likely gone up. The O's were afraid to spend an extra million bucks on Daniel Cabrera and now he'll pitch 180 below potential-level innings for the Nat's for under $3 M. They're targeting Mark Hendrickson, Tim Redding, and maybe Brandon Looper if even he is willing to come here. Will there be any position players left other than Adam Jones and Matt Wieters by the time the Big Three (Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta) are ready?

Also of note: it's entirely possible that the Yankees may spend more per player in 2009 (say, $230 M payroll divided by 25 players) than the Orioles will pay to any player at all. That's sick. And it's not good fro baseball, even if other teams still technically have a chance. Read more ...

Value Of Some Current & Potentially Future O's

During the O's game a few days ago, I was having a discussion with a friend of mine about Mark Teixeira, Brian Roberts, and player valuation in general. My points were that (1) Tex might not be worth as much as he'll get, but I'd still overpay a little (say, 4 years / $110 MM, which I doubt he'd accept anyway), (2) Brian Roberts is in the same situation (but even more extreme), though he may actually accept a little less to stay here (but probably not less by enough), (3) Adam Jones, if he never gets much better as a hitter (stays below league average) would still be worth quite a good deal and should be locked up on the super cheap sometime soon (buying out his team controlled years for $20-25 MM with a couple of team options for his first free-agency years would be a steal), and (4) Nick Markakis is really, really, really, awesome. I simply can not overstate how big of a mistake the O's made in not signing him long-term last year. (Actually I can - maybe $15 MM in extra costs to them for waiting a year. They're only going to have waited a year, right?) I like using Tom Tango's Wins Above Replacement system, since it's pretty simple but also does what I need it to do. Hitting, defense, position, and league difficulty are all taken into account.

(1) Mark Teixeira (adjusted from the post about his trade using better numbers for his defense) was an NL (+2) first-baseman (-1) with a very good glove (+1.5) and a big stick (+3.1). Adjusting for playing time, that means Tex is a 5 WAR player, which is worth about $22 MM this year. He's going to be 29 next year, and so after the first couple years of his next contract one can expect some decline from aging as he leaves his prime. To my utter amazement, he's actually worth (about) what he's asking. 4 years / $103 MM; 5 years / $127 MM; 6 years / $151 MM; 7 years / $172 MM; 8 years / $ 191 MM. In the crazy world of free agent contracts, those are all fairly reasonable deals. I still don't think it would be a great idea to sign him given where the team is (in last place), but if they could convince him to accept a little bit less to play in Baltimore then it might be OK.

(2) Brian Roberts is an AL (+2.5) second-baseman (+0) who has been up and down defensively, but is still around average (about +0, lets say) and is worth about 1.4 wins with the bat. That makes Roberts about a 3.5 WAR player, which is worth about $15.4 MM this year (while he's getting paid just $6.3 MM). Taking aging and salary increases into account, I have Roberts worth $14.5 MM in 2009 (he's set to make $8 MM), $13.3 MM in 2010, $11.7 MM in 2011, $9.7 MM in 2012, and $7.1 MM in 2013. He'll want around $15 MM annually based on his current play, but taking that out too far into the future would likely be problematic for the club. Having Roberts making $15+ MM in 2013 while only providing $7 MM in value makes it hard to have a competitive ball-club unless the organization is willing to lock young players up early (and cheaply), which they have shown isn't the case yet. I like Roberts a lot, but he may not even be a regular second baseman by the time his next deal is finished. The best option - the only real option that helps the club - is to trade Roberts for prospects, especially of the middle-infield variety.

(3) Adam Jones is an AL (+2.5) center-fielder (+0.5) who is good with the glove (+0.5) but not with the bat yet (-0.5). That's a a 2.5 WAR player at a young age, who's likely to improve. Even assuming he only gets very slightly better (maxing out as a league average hitter), his remaining team controlled years are worth about $83 MM. If he shows improvement next year, I would run to him with a contract with as many free-agency year team options as I could get. It's what the smarter clubs are doing these days. And if he becomes Torii Hunter, well... you get the idea.

(4) Nick Markakis is an AL (+2.5) right-fielder (-0.5) who plays good defense (+0.5) and is a very good hitter (+3). He is a 5 WAR player right now, which is worth about $22 MM. Assuming no improvements from his current level of play, giving Nick a 7 year / $140 MM deal is pretty defensible. In fact, it very well may be a good deal. Nick's wOBA has improved from .344 (already above average as a 22 year-old rookie) to .372 to .397 this year. If the team can sign him for 7 years / $70 MM then they should jump all over that - it's more than it would have cost a few months ago, but it's still a great deal. Interestingly, I think Nick could very well be as valuable as Roberts and Teixeira combined (in WAR) by 2013. Also of note (discovered by a member at Orioles Hangout) - since 1950, in a player's first 1600 at bats of his career (under the age of 25), no player has had more hits than Nick Markakis. Sign the man! Read more ...

Tex On The Move Mid-Season Again

Another big-time deal going down, with Atlanta finally deciding to become sellers and the Angels upgrading for the play-offs.

The Angels got:

Mark Teixeira, 28 year-old 1B, hitting .283/.390/.512 this year. He's making $12.5 MM in his last year before free-agency.

The Braves got:

Casey Kotchman, 25 year-old 1B, hitting .287/.327/.448 this year. He's making $1.45 MM and is under team control through 2011.

Stephen Marek, 24 year-old RHRP, 3.66 ERA in 46.2 IP in AA this year with 57 K's, 21 BB's, and a 1.29 WHIP. No major league experience.

The updated Marcel projections for Teixeira has him at .289/.382/.524, while Kotchman is at .281/.343/.444. Lets take their value one at a time.

Teixeira is projected to have a .385 wOBA, making his bat worth about 2.2 WAR. He's a first-baseman (-1) in the NL (+2), but a good defensive one (+1). Add it all up and adjust for playing time, and he's worth about 3.8 WAR a year, which costs around $17 MM. That means the Angels will get about $1.5 MM in excess value ($17 - $12.5 times the portion of the season that's left).

If the Angels don't sign him after the season (and they very well may now that they'll have a spot open at first) then they'll also receive draft-pick compensation. Those picks would be worth (based on research done by others on average draftee value) about $16.6 MM in excess value. LA was already almost assured of a play-off spot, so Teixeira doesn't get any credit for improving their chances.

Casey Kotchman is projected to have a .342 wOBA, making his bat worth about 0.3 WAR. He's a first-baseman (-1) in the AL (+2.5), but also a good defensive one (+1). He's not that healthiest guy around, so he gets docked a little playing-time. Add it all up and he's worth about 2.3 WAR a year. Assuming some improvement as he approaches the normal peak years for a player, about 10% salary increases from the $4.4 MM per WAR teams pay this year, and arbitration rates of 40%, 60%, and 80% of what a player's worth, the Braves should get in the neighborhood of $20 MM in excess value from Kotchman.

The Braves also received an OK bullpen prospect in Marek, who I will consider a bonus for Atlanta. He has good stuff, but is old for his level and I don't want to project how much he may be worth (I'd say about $5 MM for the years that Atlanta controls him, but that's just an educated guess).

That means that, assuming LA lets Tex walk at the end of the year, the deal is pretty close to even. The Angels get $18.1 MM in value (and probably improve their chances a little once they actually get to the play-offs) and the Braves get $20 MM in value from Kotchman and whatever Marek ends up contributing. In any case, I think the Braves did pretty well, replacing Tex with a younger and cheaper (though not as productive) first-baseman. If the Angels win the World Series as Tex hits 10 homers in the play-offs, then I don't think they'll have any regrets.

The other thing to consider is what happens to the O's chances of signing Teixeira in the off-season. The Angels will now be major players for him, and they've shown in the past that they are willing to open up the check book. That he probably isn't going to be worth very close to what he's likely to get is an issue for me, as I'd like to see him in the middle of the O's line-up. The chances of the bidding being below $20 MM a year are remote, and so I recommend Andy MacPhail steer clear. Read more ...