Monday, February 9, 2009

Still In Last, But Getting Closer

BaseballProspectus has released the current version of their PECOTA projected standings for 2009.

The AL East

BOS: 98-64
NYY: 96-66
TBR: 92-70
TOR: 81-81
BAL: 76-86

That's right people, 76 wins. And that doesn't even include Koji Uehara (and possibly some others).

Runs Scored: 859, Runs Allowed: 896, BA: .270, OBP: .340, SLG: .440.

Right now, I've got the O's with a .272/.342/.426 line. BP's .440 SLG mark is their highest in all of baseball. I find that very hard to believe, but if it happens, their projection of 859 runs scored (3rd in baseball behind the Cubs and the Red Sox) may be accurate. I don't like their runs allowed number (2nd worst, to the Rangers), but it's nice to see that my 80 win number right now is close to what the best projection system around has.

The Orioles have gotten a fair amount of good press lately, but they still might sneak up on some people.

Also, the East is stacked. (AL East team denoted w/ *)

BOS: 98-64 *
NYY: 96-66 *
TBR: 92-70 *
CLE: 84-78
OAK: 82-80
TOR: 81-81 *
LAA: 79-83
MIN: 79-83
DET: 78-84
BAL: 76-86 *
KCR: 75-87
CHW: 74-88
TEX: 72-90
SEA: 70-92

The O's are around a league-average team, and they aren't that close to getting out of last place (though I think they've got a decent enough chance at it). In the East they have no shot of making the play-offs. In the West they might be seen as the favorites. It's entirely conceivable that the five best teams in the AL this season (if the O's can get some pitching together) will all reside in the same division.

1 comment:

Matt Kremnitzer said...

I like the Orioles offense, but that slugging percentage seems too high. Maybe they figure Adam Jones will have a breakout year or something.

I think the O's may be able to pass the Blue Jays this year, especially since Toronto keeps signing former Orioles to minor league deals.