2009 Orioles Wins Above Replacement Projections

With the roster more or less finalized, I've done likewise for the projections for the BeyondTheBoxScore WAR project. My spreadsheet is here, and the underlying stats are below.

Offense:

Matt Wieters:
300 PA, .289/.359/.482, 10 HR, .365 wOBA

Gregg Zaun:
300 PA, .241/.340/.374, 5 HR, .320 wOBA

Aubrey Huff:
600 PA, .280/.344/.472, 22 HR, .357 wOBA

Brian Roberts:
625 PA, .285/.365/.425, 9 HR, .358 wOBA

Cesar Izturis:
550 PA, .260/.311/.327, 3 HR, .290 wOBA

Melvin Mora:
550 PA, .271/.333/.418, 16 HR, .334 wOBA

Felix Pie:
500 PA, .267/.322/.409, 10 HR, .323 wOBA

Adam Jones:
575 PA, .273/.325/.425, 15 HR, .331 wOBA

Nick Markakis:
650 PA, .301/.401/.493, 20 HR, .395 wOBA

Luke Scott:
575 PA, .262/.343/.476, 23 HR, .355 wOBA

Ty Wigginton:
475 PA, .271/.334/.469, 20 HR, .350 wOBA

Chad Moeller:
75 PA, .229/.281/.344, 1 HR, .286 wOBA

Ryan Freel:
300 PA, .254/.327/.353, 3 HR, .321 wOBA

Robert Andino:
100 PA, .235/.281/.342, 1 HR, .292 wOBA

Luis Montanez:
75 PA, .274/.326/.432, 2 HR, .333 wOBA

Total offense: .272/.342/.429, 160 HR, .338 wOBA

In 2008, the O's hit .269/.333/.429, 172 HR, .340 wOBA so things don't look all that different. Huff and Mora probably won't repeat their '08 seasons, but the additions of Wigginton and Wieters help. A bit above average again, while putting a plus defense on the field (especially in the outfield).

Starting pitching:

Pitcher	IP	ERA
Jeremy Guthrie	180	4.15
Koji Uehara	150	4.70
Rich Hill	100	5.00
Matt Hendrickson	80	5.13
Adam Eaton	70	5.30
Alfredo Simon	70	5.43
Brad Bergesen	75	5.18
Chris Waters	65	5.51
David Pauley	55	5.40
Danys Baez	35	5.47
Matt Albers	30	4.74
Radhames Liz	25	5.52
Total	935	4.95

Relief pitching:

Pitcher	IP	ERA
George Sherrill	55	3.79
Jim Johnson	60	3.85
Chris Ray	50	4.10
Dennis Sarfate	55	4.37
Jamie Walker	35	4.72
Danys Baez	40	4.70
Kam Mickolio	35	4.24
Brian Bass	45	4.58
Brad Hennessey	40	4.52
Matt Albers	35	4.38
Matt Hendrickson	25	4.32
Radhames Liz	35	4.73
Total	510	4.31

Pitching total: 4.73 ERA

Last year it was 5.15 so that's a big improvement. It's not really "better" though, as it's really hard to pitch that poorly (5.14 FIP too) two years in a row. Only two guys in the rotation with ERA's under 5 (Guthrie and Uehara) would make games hard to watch most days, so hopefully they can stay healthy all year. And there's a decent chance that someone (anyone, please) actually lucks into a pretty good season. Alternately, it's likely that one or two guys put up an ERA above 6. The idea is that those guys get replaced quickly (if the ERA is deserved) by someone who is less bad.

Overall, that team has about 78 wins worth of talent based on Wins Above Replacement. Given that they play in the AL East I would personally be inclined to knock another win or two off of that number, but a 75-77 win season is what I'm looking at. And no September collapse would be nice. Read more ...

Community Projections: Jeremy Guthrie

Congratulations to Jeremy Guthrie on making the USA roster for the World Baseball Classic. The WBC is a good idea in theory - and I really do like the idea of it - but there are a lot of issues in practice. Injury risks, and stars not playing, and messing up Spring Training, and so on. Hopefully there won't be any negative repercussions for the O's #1 starter (maybe their only legitimate big league starter).

Jeremy Guthrie was a failed prospect (former #1 draft pick) when he was picked up off the scrap heap from Cleveland. After starting 2007 in the pen, he quickly transitioned to the rotation and has been the team's best starter ever since.

I looked at Guthrie in the middle of last season; mainly at how he puts up ERAs so much lower than what they should be given his peripherals.

2007: 3.70 ERA but 4.41 Fielding Independent ERA and 5.10 tRA (98 tRA+)
2008: 3.63 ERA but 4.53 FIP and 4.84 tRA (101 tRA+)

He's done it two years in a row and I have no idea why. Here's some more info. (thanks FanGraphs):

Year	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	BABIP	LOB%	LD%	GB%	FB%	HR/FB %
2007	6.31	2.41	2.62	1.18	.250	.277	75.1	19.3	42.5	38.2	11.2
2008	5.66	2.74	2.07	1.13	.247	.267	76.7	18.2	43.8	38	10.5

That drop in strike-out rate is the most troubling thing.

Here's a cool graphic of Guthrie's stuff (stolen from Harry Pavlidis at Cubsfx.com):

It's for data through June for 2008. FanGraphs has the average speed of his pitches being about 0.5-1 mph less for each. Guts throws hard and has pretty good stuff. Let's look at the pitch outcomes with Josh Kalk's Pitch/FX tool:

Pitch	Balls	Strike Called	Strike Swinging	Foul	In Play Out	1B	2B	3B	HR
Fastball	849	411	124	469	327	82	18	4	18
Curveball	78	42	19	31	34	12	2	0	0
Slider	237	101	66	140	96	23	6	0	9
Change	144	65	70	91	60	23	4	0	0

When he hangs the slider it gets hit pretty hard. He didn't give up as many hits on hanging curveballs - most of the hits off of curves where out of the zone (usually low). Guthrie started throwing a few more curveballs and a lot more change-ups in 2008 at the expense of some sliders and fastballs. His change-up might have been his best pitch, showing a near 10 mph difference from his fastball with very similar movement (a little more sink) and a similar release point. He got swinging strikes on 15% of the change-ups he threw, compared to 10% for sliders, 9% for curveballs, and 5% for fastballs. That batters didn't hit it for much power is also a plus. Considering the velocity, I expected his heater to be more effective.

Looking at starting pitchers from last year (86 of them on FanGraphs), Guthrie has the 13th fastest fastball at 93.2 mph (in-between Zach Greinke and Matt Garza). The 12 guys ahead of him averaged 8.3 K/9 with only Edwin Jackson under 7.3 K/9 (he was at 5.3). The 12 guys after Guthrie averaged 6.84 K/9 with only two guys below Guts' 5.66 (Daniel Cabrera at 4.75 and Mike Pelfrey at 4.93).

Velocity does have some relationship to strike-out rate (even more FanGraphs goodness):


Guthrie is the dot that's at (93.2, 5.66). It looks like he's one of the very few pitchers who throws hard and doesn't K many guys.

The big elephant in the room is his BABIP. With values of .277 and .267, Guthrie has been "lucky" the last couple years (it should be closer to .300). Some pitchers have been able to maintain BABIP below .300, but not 30 points below. This is were there may be some small link with the pitch selection. Guys that threw more change-ups (say, in the top 35 of % of pitches being changes - Guthrie's 35th) had slightly lower BABIP (.294 instead of .300). That's shaky at best, but given his otherwise unimpressive assortment of skills (though he is an excellent athlete and a good fielder) I don't know what else explains the rate at which he gets outs on balls in play. Maybe he's just been lucky two years in a row. I don't really expect it to continue, but I'm hedging a little by predicting a slightly better ERA (converted from tRA) than one would expect given his peripherals.

My projection is 180 IP with a 4.37 ERA, but the current projection for the community WAR project is 180 IP with a 4.17 ERA. He should still be an average to slightly above-average starter, and the official stopper of the Orioles' staff. Read more ...

Community Projections: Melvin Mora

Melvin Mora started out horribly in 2008, fueling some speculation as to whether he was done as an effective player. His first-half line of .233/.301/.387 was a huge drag on the offense. In the second half it was a completely new Melvin; he hit .376/.417/.656 with 12 HR and 56 RBI in just 48 games.

That finish might indicate that Mora will be able to carry some of that success over into 2009, but Heath over at Dempsey's Army has some contrary evidence:

"This is probably Melvin Mora's final season in Baltimore and it will probably be time for him to go. Since the end of 2004, Mora has been in decline. You shouldn't really expect much out of a 37-year old third baseman. I mean, he had a nice year in 2008 but that's just a lat hurrah for an old vet. Surely he'll regress back to his normal declining self in 2009. 2008 was a fluke. Right?

Since 1954, third basemen age 37 or over whose OPS+ was greater than 100:

             OPS+    Age
Schmidt      142     37
T. Fernandez 124     37
Nettles      120     40
Boggs        119     37
Nettles      119     38
Rose         119     37
B. Robinson  113     37
G. Gaetti    108     37"

Melvin's .364 wOBA was his highest since 2005 (also .364, but his wOBA+ was a point lower last year 108 to 107). I think there's almost no chance he can repeat that, but he did change his approach some.

Mora's contact rate increased from 2005 to 2007 (80.9%, 81.2%, 84.1%) and stayed higher in 2008 (83.6%). The % of pitches he swung at though, went from 44.5% to 44.7% to 43.2%. Last year, Melvin obviously went over to Fangraphs and noticed his increasing contact rate, because he increased his swing rate too, to 46.6%. Maybe pitchers saw Mora's declining stats and decided to challenge him more (the proportion of fastballs he saw has gone up four straight years from 59.7% of pitches to 61.9%, 62.2%, and 63% last year). I guess Mel-Mo thought "Hey, if they're going to throw me more fastball I'll start swinging more." And boy did he, spraying line-drives all over the place (21.2% LD-rate - his highest since 2004).

Mora's BABIP was only .289 last year, and (from HitTracker) while he had 10 "Just Enough" HR, only 2 of them were categorized as "Lucky". He had a legitimately good offensive season.

All that said, I still think we'll see quite a bit of regression in 2009. Given the preceding info, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if I low-ball him a little, but for now I've got Melvin projected at:

PA

H

2B

3B

HR

BB

BA

OBP

SLG

wOBA

550

136

24

1

16

46

.271

.333

.418

.334

That's about a league-average bat, which should be passable even with Mora's below average defense. I really like Melvin, so I hope he's able to be productive for a little while longer. The economy's in rough shape and he has a lot of mouths to feed. Read more ...

Community Projections: Ty Wigginton

There have been rumors circulating about it for a while, but the O's have finally signed 1B/2B/3B/OF/DH Ty Wigginton to a two year, $6 M deal.

I had been mildly opposed to signing Ty, but that's when I expected it to be to a Casey Blake type deal (3 years $17 M, I think it was). At the low, low cost of $3 M a year, this is a very solid deal. Wigginton should be worth that even if he only plays for half a season.

I had been concerned that the O's line-up was too left-handed with Huff, Scott, and Pie and no solid right-handed back-up. Wigginton solves that problem in spades (.878 carear OPS versus lefties, with about a .450 wOBA in 2008 against south-paws).

Wiggy plays a whole host of positions on defense (all to various degrees of badness), which gives the team a lot of flexibility. That means that the O's will always have a bat on the bench and also indicates that that bench will be four men deep (Wigginton, Freel, back-up catcher, back-up shortstop). Big fan of not having a 13-man pitching staff.

For now I have Ty projected at:

PA

H

2B

3B

HR

BB

BA

OBP

SLG

wOBA

WAR

400

99

21

0

17

34

.271

.334

.469

.350

1.1

While seeing most of his time at first and DH, and filling in at second and third.

That's worth $5.3 M already, so it's extremely likely that Wigginton will end up being a bargain. Another solid move by Andy MacPhail. Read more ...

Community Projections: Matt Wieters

I've seen a lot of articles about Matt Wieters coming out lately. Many are the standard top prospect lists - with Wieters holding the top spot - while others are general of the form "man, that Wieters kid is going to be some player."

I had Wieters projected for 400 PA of .275/.344/.438 ball (which makes him a slightly above average hitter already), but that seems to be the worst anyone thinks he's going to do. When coming up with that line, I gave a lot of weight to his being a catcher (and thus needing more transition time). I'm also not used to the Orioles having such a good prospect - I remember thinking Larry Bigbie was going to be the next Shawn Green (oops).

Wieters is about as complete of a hitter as you can ask for; he hits for average and power (and has a very good batting-eye) from both sides of the plate. He definitely showed that too, putting up (in retrospect) a monster year - .345/.448/.576 in A+ and .365/.460/.625 in AA, with 27 HR and 82 BB to 76 K in 437 combined AB at the age of 22.

There are a lot of players Wieters has drawn comparisons to:

Joe Mauer: At age 20 he hit .335/.397/.412 in A+ and .341/.395/.453 in AA. Mauer was younger, but Wieters had a higher OBP and much more power. Joe hit .294/.372/.411 in his first full year at age 22.

Mike Piazza: At age 23 he hit .377/.441/.658 in AA and .341/.403/.564 in AAA. Maybe give a small OBP advantage to Wieters, but Piazza was a beast and carried that through to the big leagues; .318/.370/.561 with 35 HR.

Mark Teixeira: At age 22 he hit .320/.404/.593 in A+ and .316/.403/.591 in AA. Tex showed a touch more HR power, but Wieters has the edge in BA (and thus SLG) and OBP. Mark hit .259/.331/.480 the following year in the majors. Teixeira is the guy who Wieters should be most like with the bat. Mark Teixeira... as a catcher. Boy the Pirates must be kicking themselves for that one (picking lefty reliever Daniel Moskos #4 overall instead of Wieters).

Average their first-year lines together and you get .290/.358/.484. That would be awfully impressive, but with some seasoning in AAA (which looks like it might last longer than I originally expected) it is conceivable.

So the current projection for Matt Wieters is:

PA

H

2B

3B

HR

BB

BA

OBP

SLG

wOBA

300

78

20

1

10

29

.289

.359

.482

.365

That would have made Wieters the 7th most valuable catcher in baseball last year (in half a season, no less). The NL has Brian McCann (.301/.373/.523 last year), Russell Martin (.280/.385/.396), and Geovany Soto (.285/.364/.504). The AL only had Joe Mauer (.293/.413/.451). And Matt Wieters might be the best one of them all in the not-too-distant future. Read more ...

Community Projections: Adam Jones

Most casual O's fans weren't happy about it at the time, but the Erik Bedard trade turned out wonderfully for the team. The main piece coming over from Seattle (much to USSMariner's chagrin) was center-fielder Adam Jones. Expectations for Jones were pretty high - and he didn't quite live up to them - but it's hard not to be excited about his future.

Jones had some plate-discipline issues, posting a .270/.311/.400 line, with 9 HR, .322 wOBA, 96 wOBA+. He more than made up for it with his gliding defense in center and cannon arm (accuracy not withstanding).

He still has a ways to go to reach those Torii Hunter comparisons, but I expect a bump in OBP and SLG, if not so much with the average:

PA

H

2B

3B

HR

BB

BA

OBP

SLG

wOBA

575

145

32

2

15

41

.273

.325

.425

.331

Considering his defense, that would make Jones an above-average player already. And if he learns not to chase those down-and-away breaking balls and starts hitting the ball in the air a bit more then he might be reaching his ceiling sooner than expected. Read more ...