Wednesday, April 1, 2009

2009 Orioles Wins Above Replacement Projections

With the roster more or less finalized, I've done likewise for the projections for the BeyondTheBoxScore WAR project. My spreadsheet is here, and the underlying stats are below.

Offense:

Matt Wieters:
300 PA, .289/.359/.482, 10 HR, .365 wOBA

Gregg Zaun:
300 PA, .241/.340/.374, 5 HR, .320 wOBA

Aubrey Huff:
600 PA, .280/.344/.472, 22 HR, .357 wOBA

Brian Roberts:
625 PA, .285/.365/.425, 9 HR, .358 wOBA

Cesar Izturis:
550 PA, .260/.311/.327, 3 HR, .290 wOBA

Melvin Mora:
550 PA, .271/.333/.418, 16 HR, .334 wOBA

Felix Pie:
500 PA, .267/.322/.409, 10 HR, .323 wOBA

Adam Jones:
575 PA, .273/.325/.425, 15 HR, .331 wOBA

Nick Markakis:
650 PA, .301/.401/.493, 20 HR, .395 wOBA

Luke Scott:
575 PA, .262/.343/.476, 23 HR, .355 wOBA

Ty Wigginton:
475 PA, .271/.334/.469, 20 HR, .350 wOBA

Chad Moeller:
75 PA, .229/.281/.344, 1 HR, .286 wOBA

Ryan Freel:
300 PA, .254/.327/.353, 3 HR, .321 wOBA

Robert Andino:
100 PA, .235/.281/.342, 1 HR, .292 wOBA

Luis Montanez:
75 PA, .274/.326/.432, 2 HR, .333 wOBA

Total offense: .272/.342/.429, 160 HR, .338 wOBA

In 2008, the O's hit .269/.333/.429, 172 HR, .340 wOBA so things don't look all that different. Huff and Mora probably won't repeat their '08 seasons, but the additions of Wigginton and Wieters help. A bit above average again, while putting a plus defense on the field (especially in the outfield).

Starting pitching:
Pitcher IP ERA
Jeremy Guthrie 180 4.15
Koji Uehara 150 4.70
Rich Hill 100 5.00
Matt Hendrickson 80 5.13
Adam Eaton 70 5.30
Alfredo Simon 70 5.43
Brad Bergesen 75 5.18
Chris Waters 65 5.51
David Pauley 55 5.40
Danys Baez 35 5.47
Matt Albers 30 4.74
Radhames Liz 25 5.52
Total 935 4.95

Relief pitching:
Pitcher IP ERA
George Sherrill 55 3.79
Jim Johnson 60 3.85
Chris Ray 50 4.10
Dennis Sarfate 55 4.37
Jamie Walker 35 4.72
Danys Baez 40 4.70
Kam Mickolio 35 4.24
Brian Bass 45 4.58
Brad Hennessey 40 4.52
Matt Albers 35 4.38
Matt Hendrickson 25 4.32
Radhames Liz 35 4.73
Total 510 4.31

Pitching total: 4.73 ERA

Last year it was 5.15 so that's a big improvement. It's not really "better" though, as it's really hard to pitch that poorly (5.14 FIP too) two years in a row. Only two guys in the rotation with ERA's under 5 (Guthrie and Uehara) would make games hard to watch most days, so hopefully they can stay healthy all year. And there's a decent chance that someone (anyone, please) actually lucks into a pretty good season. Alternately, it's likely that one or two guys put up an ERA above 6. The idea is that those guys get replaced quickly (if the ERA is deserved) by someone who is less bad.

Overall, that team has about 78 wins worth of talent based on Wins Above Replacement. Given that they play in the AL East I would personally be inclined to knock another win or two off of that number, but a 75-77 win season is what I'm looking at. And no September collapse would be nice.

10 comments:

Heath said...

Thanks for the tip on this...

My first thought is that as cautious as this organization is under MacPhail, I would be shocked if Wieters get 400 PA in the bigs this season...but I would love it.

I'll get back to you on the rest...

Heath said...

Hey Frost King, can you get me your e-mail account? You can e-mail me from my profile...

I'm hooked. Want to send you my version of the spreadsheet...

math_geek said...

Hmm... I always thought Jeremy Guthrie was better than that. Is this because of the tRA as opposed to ERA. Must be more than that. His ERA was 3.63 in 2007, so you're projecting a .74 increase in ERA. I'm not to fluent in tRA, but does tRA really increase ERAs by that much? I have a hard time seeing Koji Uehara as below 4.00 ERA for example. It'd be disappointing to see such a major regression in Guthrie given that he's only 29 and been a starter for two years.

Also, I really do believe that Ramon Hernandez crappy catching actually made Orioles pitchers consistently worse than they should have been. We'll find out next year I guess.

FrostKing said...

Guthrie's ERA has been lower than what one might expect the last couple years given his walks, strike-outs, home runs, etc. Therefore, when predicting how he'll do next year I lean towards using his underlying stats.

Never the less, if you think that he'll actually post a lower ERA than that next year let me know. I'd like as much input as I can get.

Heath said...

I agree with math_geek on Guthrie to an extent. There are some pitchers who consistently perform better (or worse) than their FIP. Usually they are groundball pitchers or guys who induce an unusual number of pop flies. There are pitchers who induce weakly hit balls, even if they do not strike out a ton of batters.

That said, I tried to stick to the guidelines at BtB and listed Guthrie at a 4.44 FIP. Since they factor in defense already, I am guessing that helps offset the difference. Still, I expect Guthrie to benefit more from the O's improved D than any other pitcher.

Besides, if you put the true expected ERA's vs. FIP...this team would be projected to win 84-86 games! I don't think the staff is quite there....

It'll be interesting to see how close those projections are...

GM-Carson said...
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Matt Kremnitzer said...

These look pretty good to me. If Wieters actually does get 400 PA, it'll be interesting to see what he can do with them.

But good work.

Sean said...

I'm impressed by your ability to travel forward in time more than two months.

Bassett said...

Hey Frost King, thanks for adding ROR to your blogroll! Much appreciated!!

GM-Carson said...
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