Offense:
Matt Wieters:
300 PA, .289/.359/.482, 10 HR, .365 wOBA
Gregg Zaun:
300 PA, .241/.340/.374, 5 HR, .320 wOBA
Aubrey Huff:
600 PA, .280/.344/.472, 22 HR, .357 wOBA
Brian Roberts:
625 PA, .285/.365/.425, 9 HR, .358 wOBA
Cesar Izturis:
550 PA, .260/.311/.327, 3 HR, .290 wOBA
Melvin Mora:
550 PA, .271/.333/.418, 16 HR, .334 wOBA
Felix Pie:
500 PA, .267/.322/.409, 10 HR, .323 wOBA
Adam Jones:
575 PA, .273/.325/.425, 15 HR, .331 wOBA
Nick Markakis:
650 PA, .301/.401/.493, 20 HR, .395 wOBA
Luke Scott:
575 PA, .262/.343/.476, 23 HR, .355 wOBA
Ty Wigginton:
475 PA, .271/.334/.469, 20 HR, .350 wOBA
Chad Moeller:
75 PA, .229/.281/.344, 1 HR, .286 wOBA
Ryan Freel:
300 PA, .254/.327/.353, 3 HR, .321 wOBA
Robert Andino:
100 PA, .235/.281/.342, 1 HR, .292 wOBA
Luis Montanez:
75 PA, .274/.326/.432, 2 HR, .333 wOBA
Total offense: .272/.342/.429, 160 HR, .338 wOBA
In 2008, the O's hit .269/.333/.429, 172 HR, .340 wOBA so things don't look all that different. Huff and Mora probably won't repeat their '08 seasons, but the additions of Wigginton and Wieters help. A bit above average again, while putting a plus defense on the field (especially in the outfield).
Starting pitching:
| Pitcher | IP | ERA |
| Jeremy Guthrie | 180 | 4.15 |
| Koji Uehara | 150 | 4.70 |
| Rich Hill | 100 | 5.00 |
| Matt Hendrickson | 80 | 5.13 |
| Adam Eaton | 70 | 5.30 |
| Alfredo Simon | 70 | 5.43 |
| Brad Bergesen | 75 | 5.18 |
| Chris Waters | 65 | 5.51 |
| David Pauley | 55 | 5.40 |
| Danys Baez | 35 | 5.47 |
| Matt Albers | 30 | 4.74 |
| Radhames Liz | 25 | 5.52 |
| Total | 935 | 4.95 |
Relief pitching:
| Pitcher | IP | ERA |
| George Sherrill | 55 | 3.79 |
| Jim Johnson | 60 | 3.85 |
| Chris Ray | 50 | 4.10 |
| Dennis Sarfate | 55 | 4.37 |
| Jamie Walker | 35 | 4.72 |
| Danys Baez | 40 | 4.70 |
| Kam Mickolio | 35 | 4.24 |
| Brian Bass | 45 | 4.58 |
| Brad Hennessey | 40 | 4.52 |
| Matt Albers | 35 | 4.38 |
| Matt Hendrickson | 25 | 4.32 |
| Radhames Liz | 35 | 4.73 |
| Total | 510 | 4.31 |
Pitching total: 4.73 ERA
Last year it was 5.15 so that's a big improvement. It's not really "better" though, as it's really hard to pitch that poorly (5.14 FIP too) two years in a row. Only two guys in the rotation with ERA's under 5 (Guthrie and Uehara) would make games hard to watch most days, so hopefully they can stay healthy all year. And there's a decent chance that someone (anyone, please) actually lucks into a pretty good season. Alternately, it's likely that one or two guys put up an ERA above 6. The idea is that those guys get replaced quickly (if the ERA is deserved) by someone who is less bad.
Overall, that team has about 78 wins worth of talent based on Wins Above Replacement. Given that they play in the AL East I would personally be inclined to knock another win or two off of that number, but a 75-77 win season is what I'm looking at. And no September collapse would be nice.
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10 comments:
Thanks for the tip on this...
My first thought is that as cautious as this organization is under MacPhail, I would be shocked if Wieters get 400 PA in the bigs this season...but I would love it.
I'll get back to you on the rest...
Hey Frost King, can you get me your e-mail account? You can e-mail me from my profile...
I'm hooked. Want to send you my version of the spreadsheet...
Hmm... I always thought Jeremy Guthrie was better than that. Is this because of the tRA as opposed to ERA. Must be more than that. His ERA was 3.63 in 2007, so you're projecting a .74 increase in ERA. I'm not to fluent in tRA, but does tRA really increase ERAs by that much? I have a hard time seeing Koji Uehara as below 4.00 ERA for example. It'd be disappointing to see such a major regression in Guthrie given that he's only 29 and been a starter for two years.
Also, I really do believe that Ramon Hernandez crappy catching actually made Orioles pitchers consistently worse than they should have been. We'll find out next year I guess.
Guthrie's ERA has been lower than what one might expect the last couple years given his walks, strike-outs, home runs, etc. Therefore, when predicting how he'll do next year I lean towards using his underlying stats.
Never the less, if you think that he'll actually post a lower ERA than that next year let me know. I'd like as much input as I can get.
I agree with math_geek on Guthrie to an extent. There are some pitchers who consistently perform better (or worse) than their FIP. Usually they are groundball pitchers or guys who induce an unusual number of pop flies. There are pitchers who induce weakly hit balls, even if they do not strike out a ton of batters.
That said, I tried to stick to the guidelines at BtB and listed Guthrie at a 4.44 FIP. Since they factor in defense already, I am guessing that helps offset the difference. Still, I expect Guthrie to benefit more from the O's improved D than any other pitcher.
Besides, if you put the true expected ERA's vs. FIP...this team would be projected to win 84-86 games! I don't think the staff is quite there....
It'll be interesting to see how close those projections are...
These look pretty good to me. If Wieters actually does get 400 PA, it'll be interesting to see what he can do with them.
But good work.
I'm impressed by your ability to travel forward in time more than two months.
Hey Frost King, thanks for adding ROR to your blogroll! Much appreciated!!
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