2008 - Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers were supposed to score 1,000 runs and challenge for the World Series, and... they sure didn't.

Record: 74-88
Pythagorean Record: 78-84
Third Order Standings (from BPro): 79-83
My Prediction: 89-73
Over/Under: Under 93.5 - Correct

The big Tigers' acquisition, Miguel Cabrera, started out slowly and had a sub-par year by his standards (.292/.349/.537, 37 HR, .379 wOBA, 115 wOBA+), but still managed to lead the AL in home runs. Cabrera was also the only Tiger to play in more than 146 games. Carlos Guillen missed time but continued being one of the under-appreciated hitters in the league (.286/.376/.436, .367 wOBA, 110 wOBA+). Curtis Granderson missed the start of the year but raked when he got back (.280/.365/.494, 22 HR, 13 3B, .378 wOBA, 113 wOBA+). Magglio Ordonez's OPS dropped 150 points, though he was still productive (.317/.376/.494, 21 HR, .376 wOBA, 113 wOBA+). Marcus Thames showed tremendous power and no other skills (.241/.292/.516, 25 HR, .355 wOBA, 108 wOBA+). And finally, Placido Polanco and his very square jaw played excellent defense once again and added a little with the bat (.307/.350/.417, .341 wOBA, 102 wOBA+). Edgar Renteria sucked again in the AL (.270/.317/.382) and Detroit only scored 821 runs.

Normally, 821 runs would be enough to at least have a winning season. Unfortunately for the Tigers, their pitching collapsed. Dontrelle Willis, who came over from Florida with Cabrera and received a shiny new contract before the season, forgot how to throw strikes (13.1 BB/9) and was sent to the minors. Despite the formally high 90's fastball and three quality pitches, Justin Verlander regressed to being only slightly above average (4.84 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 4.58 tRA, 106 tRA+). Jeremy Bonderman pitched OK until he got hurt (4.29 ERA, 5.40 tRA, 71.3 IP), and lefties Kenny Rogers (5.70 ERA, 6.34 tRA) and Nate Robertson (6.35 ERA, 5.34 tRA) were pretty horrible. The bullpen was even worse, with closer Todd Jones losing his job (4.97 ERA, 7.14 tRA) to Fernando Rodney (4.91 ERA, 5.34 tRA). The only pleasant surprise on the staff was rookie right-hander Armando Galarraga (3.73 ERA, 6.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 5.29 tRA, 91 tRA+). I wouldn't expect a repeat of that kind of success in 2009 from him though (1.4 HR/9 in '08). A 4.91 ERA (857 runs allowed) just won't cut it for a contender.

With a farm system that had been depleted and a payrolls that will need to be trimmed, the Tigers are in a little bit of trouble. I still expect Verlander to eventually turn into an Ace, but he 'll need some help to keep the other teams down while Cabrera and co. put some runs on the board. It will be pretty embarrassing if they finish below the Royals in the standings... again. Read more ...

2008 O's Offensive Projections

I'll get to the team overall later, but for now I wanted to look back at by projections for the offense. Proj. was my pre-season projection, Act. is their actual season line, and Pr. is the predicted line from the Hardball times based on batted-ball data and the like (like PrOPS).

C: Ramon Hernandez
Proj: .267/.333/.437
Act: .257/.308/.406
Pr: .292/.341/.457
Despite a solid line-drive % (19.7%), Ramon's BABIP was only .265. Let him start 2009 as the catcher and hope the luck evens out so he can be traded. Razor's defense leaves a lot to be desired, but he's still a pretty good hitter for a back-stop.

1B: Kevin Millar
Proj: .263/.355/.416
Act: .234/.323/.394
Pr: .279/.362/.464
19.1% LD rate and a .245 BABIP. If he'd sign for nothing then I'd bring him back as a bench player, though that's mostly my personal affinity for the guy.

2B: Brian Roberts
Proj: .285/.370/.430
Act: .296/.378/.450
Pr: .288./.371./.408
Great year, but I don't think he has that much power.

3B: Melvin Mora
Proj: .268/.336/.402
Act: .285/.342/.483
Pr: .300/.357/.505
Where the heck did that come from? And more importantly, are there any teams (Twins?) that think he can repeat it?

SS: Luis Hernandez
Proj: .245/.279/.309
Act: .241/.295/.253
Pr: .271/.326/.335
He wasn't around that long and now he's the Royals' problem. I'll sort of miss the Pelican.

LF: Luke Scott
Proj: .269/.367/.511
Act: .257/.336/.472
Pr: .271/.348/.484
Luke was a mild disappointment for me, but he was still a productive player. I guess the AL really is tougher than the NL.

CF: Adam Jones
Proj: .269/.327/.464
Act: .270/.311/.400
Pr: .254/.297/.377
Where's the power? You can't put up a decent SLG when the ball's being hit on the ground so much (47%). And without the power there's not much reason for a pitcher not to challenge him, and so the walks will be lower. At least he can go get them in center. [Jones reminds me a little of Delmon Young in that he too has the raw power but hits the ball on the ground way too much (55%) and so he only slugged .405.]

RF: Nick Markakis
Proj: .297/.365/.500
Act: .306/.406/.491
Pr: .291/.392/.464
Finally utilized that great batting eye. In his prime we may see a .330/.450/.550 season, but .300/.400/.500 is still worth a lot. Sign the man!

DH: Aubrey Huff
Proj: .273/.336/.447
Act: .304/.360/.552
Pr: .290/.346/.517
I really honestly liked the signing when they made it. Doubtful of a repeat, but it was fun while it lasted. And he has a Silver Slugger to show for it.

C: Guillermo Quiroz
Proj: .237/.288/.344
Act: .187/.259/.269
Pr: .239/.304/.347
I got surprisingly close to the PrOPS line, considering he's a back-up catcher. Cool name and actually good defense makes him one of the better #2's the team has had recently.

OF: Jay Payton
Proj: .273/.319/.403
Act: .243/.291/.346
Pr: .275/.318/.405
Wow. I missed his actual line, but the underlying one is right there. May I never have to make a projection for him again.

UTIL: Brandon Fahey
Proj: .246/.304/.309
Act: .226/.252/.349
Pr: .244/.272/.313
I have nothing against Fahey personally, but I never want to see him playing for the team again. If he's even the #2 option at short then the team has major problems.

Total (includes others):
Projected - .269/.337/.427, 789 runs, 4.9 runs / game.
Actual - .267/.333/.429, 782 runs, 4.8 runs / game.

So, yeah. I'm going to give myself a pat on the back for this one. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA - the best projection system around - had the team at .262/.329/.414, 748 runs, 4.6 runs / game. I may not have predicted every team's win totals as well, but I beat them out on the Birds' offense. I'm 1-for-1 at this, and will try to keep the streak alive next year. Too bad my pitching projections were so far off, or the team might have flirted with .500 a little more. Read more ...

2008 - Florida Marlins

Another trade makes the teams picks for me, as Florida sent Scott Olson and Josh Willingham to Washington. Florida today, Nats later.

Record: 84-77
Pythagorean Record: 81-80
Third Order Standings (from BPro): 81-80
My Prediction: 73-89
Over/Under: Over 68.5 - Correct

Bad pitching all over the place. The only big bright spot for the Marlins was the emergence of Ricky Nolasco as a top-of-the-rotation type starter. 212 IP, 3.52 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 3.98 tRA, 117 tRA+. That control is new, as it had been 3.8 BB/9 the year before (in very limited time). If he keeps the walks down to a rate close to that then he should be able to continue his success. The aforementioned Scott Olson had a fine 4.20 ERA but only 5.0 K/9 and a bad 5.38 tRA, and lefties Andrew Miller (of the Miguel Cabrera trade) and Mark Hendrickson were similarly bad (tRA's of 5.02 and 5.53 respectively). Josh Johnson and 21 year-old rookie Chris Volstad only pitched half-seasons, but both show some promise for 2009 (tRA's of 3.99 and 4.19). The pen had some moderately effective arms in it, but wasn't any better than the rotation.

The offense boasted one of the best offensive middle-infields in baseball, with Hanley Ramirez continuing his slugging from the shortstop position (.301/.400/.540, 33 HR, .412 wOBA, 124 wOBA+) with some actually improved defense and Dan Uggla butchering the ball with both the bat (.260/.360/.514, 32 HR, .383 wOBA, 116 wOBA+) and the glove (as evidenced by his 3 errors in the All-Star game alone) at second. Jorge Cantu came back from the dead two years after driving in 117 runs for the Devil Rays to hit .277/.327/.481 with 29 HR while playing a poor third-base, and Mike Jacobs completed the trip around the powerful infield by hitting 32 HR with a sad .247/.299/.514 line at first. Josh Willingham (.254/.364/.470, .376 wOBA) and Cody Ross (.260/.316/.488, 22 HR, .348 wOBA) added even more pop from the outfield. If only they had some defense.

The Marlins were in contention for much of the season, even trading a prospect for Arthur Rhodes late in the year. Perennial MVP candidate (or at least he should be) Hanley Ramirez will keep the team interesting all by himself, but the organization has shown an ability to compete once every few years on a shoe-string budget so they can't be counted out. Read more ...

2008 - Colorado Rockies

Now for the other team in that Matt Holliday trade; the Colorado Rockies


Record: 74-88
Pythagorean Record: 74-88
Third Order Standings (from BPro): 77-85
My Prediction: 83-79
Over/Under: Under 83.5 - Correct

The Rockies fell pretty far after making it to the World Series in 2007. "Ace" Jeff Francis saw his strike-out rate fall from 6.9 to 5.9 and his ERA ballooned to 5.01 (4.97 tRA, 96 tRA+) from 4.22 (4.14 tRA, 117 tRA+). Aaron Cook came back healthy after missing some time in 2007 and made the All-Star team with his groundball repertoire and 3.96 ERA, 4.21 tRA, 112 tRA+. After his very impressive second-half and post-season work, Ubaldo Jimenez took his place amongst the best young pitchers in baseball. The walks are still high (4.7 per nine), but 7.8 K/9 and 54.4% groundball rate make up for a lot of ills. 3.99 ERA, 3.94 tRA, 117 tRA+, and almost 200 IP in his first full season in the bigs gives the Rockies a nice piece to build their rotation around. There were some quality arms in the pen (Taylor Buccholz with a 2.17 ERA?), but the back of the rotation was so bad that they actually brought in Livan Hernandez to give them an 8.03 ERA after his 5.48 ERA work in Minnesota.

It's not a Rockies team without offense (even though theirs was actually only a little better than average). The recently departed Matt Holliday led the way (.321/.409/.538, 25 HR, .417 wOBA, 123 wOBA+), with Brad Hawpe (.283/.381/.498, 25 HR, .388 wOBA, 114 wOBA+) and Chris Iannetta (.264/.390/.505, 18 HR, .400 wOBA, 118 wOBA+), now that he finally got a decent chance to be the starting catcher, being the big secondary contributors. Todd Helton and his $16.6 MM salary walked a bunch (.391 OBP) but missed time and had no power (.388 SLG). Garrett Atkins stopped walking (.328 OBP despite a .286 BA) and played his usual bad defense and might be on the way out of town with Ian Stewart (.259/.349/.455, .347 wOBA) producing well in limited time. Oh, and despite being fast (68 SB) and a pretty good fielder, Willy Tavarez is an awful hitter (.251/.308/.296, .296 wOBA, 88 wOBA+). New Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez should probably take Tavarez's job, with Ryan Spilborghs (.313/.407/.468, .398 wOBA, 118 wOBA+ in 233 AB) taking over for Holliday in left.

The Rockies have some upside and the NL West is a pretty bad division, so I'm not counting them out for next year. Heck, if Troy Tulowitzki hadn't gotten hurt (and been bad the time that he did play - .263/.332/.401 and wOBA down from .374 in '07 to .331, and his fielding was down (thought still good) from the crazy level of performance he showed last year) then maybe they would have made a little more noise this year. Read more ...

2008 - Oakland A's

Exam's done and election's over - time to get back to the baseball. I was planning to look at each team's 2008 season and couldn't decide which order to go in. Today's news took care of the first team for me...

The Athletics acquired Matt Holliday from Colorado, and so we'll start with the A's.

Record: 75-86
Pythagorean Record: 76-85
Third Order Standings (from BPro): 77-84
My Prediction: 77-85
Over/Under: Over 73.5 - Correct

After trading Dan Haren and Nick Swisher, the A's were supposed to be pretty bad. They showed everybody by getting off to a good start. Rich Harden (who was traded himself at the deadline) was fantastic (2.34 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 6.7 H/9, 2.85 tRA and 141 tRA+) when he was healthy; Justin Duchscherer made a nice transition to the rotation (2.54 ERA, 6.0 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 6.8 H/9, 3.90 tRA and 120 tRA+)and made the All-Star team; and new lefties Greg Smith (4.16 ERA, 5.34 tRA) and Dana Eveland (4.34 ERA, 5.33 tRA) provided pleasant surprises at the back-end of the rotation. Submarining righty Brad Zeigler came out of nowhere to set a new record for consecutive scoreless innings to start a career and ended up the team's closer (with a 1.06 ERA, 3.77 tRA, and a 63% groundball rate), but it was actually Joey Devine (who came over from Atlanta for Mark Kotsay) that was the pen's best reliever (0.59 ERA, 9.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 4.5 H/9, 1.93 tRA, 157 tRA+).

The pitching-staff overall was pretty good (4.01 ERA, 4.88 tRA) - it was the offense that caused the team to fall out of contention. The team couldn't hit (.242 BA - last in the AL), couldn't walk (.318 OBP - 13th out of 14), and couldn't hit for power (.369 SLG - last). In the earlier parts of the season the team still managed to put runs on the board, but it wasn't sustainable. Jack Cust continued his amazing three-true-outcomes performance (33 HR, 111 BB, 197 K) but the rest of the line-up was filled with hitters who were OK at best. In fact, Cust was the only guy who played even half the season with a SLG over .400.

Though they only pushed the Angels for a little while, it was solid season on the way back up for the A's. It certainly helps them that Mark Ellis and his golden glove (unfortunately still lower-case) will be sticking around for a couple more years at dirt cheap prices ($11 MM total, which he should be getting yearly). Lots of depth kept them afloat in 2008, and it should serve them well in 2009. Read more ...