Wednesday, November 26, 2008

2008 O's Offensive Projections

I'll get to the team overall later, but for now I wanted to look back at by projections for the offense. Proj. was my pre-season projection, Act. is their actual season line, and Pr. is the predicted line from the Hardball times based on batted-ball data and the like (like PrOPS).

C: Ramon Hernandez
Proj: .267/.333/.437
Act: .257/.308/.406
Pr: .292/.341/.457
Despite a solid line-drive % (19.7%), Ramon's BABIP was only .265. Let him start 2009 as the catcher and hope the luck evens out so he can be traded. Razor's defense leaves a lot to be desired, but he's still a pretty good hitter for a back-stop.

1B: Kevin Millar
Proj: .263/.355/.416
Act: .234/.323/.394
Pr: .279/.362/.464
19.1% LD rate and a .245 BABIP. If he'd sign for nothing then I'd bring him back as a bench player, though that's mostly my personal affinity for the guy.

2B: Brian Roberts
Proj: .285/.370/.430
Act: .296/.378/.450
Pr: .288./.371./.408
Great year, but I don't think he has that much power.

3B: Melvin Mora
Proj: .268/.336/.402
Act: .285/.342/.483
Pr: .300/.357/.505
Where the heck did that come from? And more importantly, are there any teams (Twins?) that think he can repeat it?

SS: Luis Hernandez
Proj: .245/.279/.309
Act: .241/.295/.253
Pr: .271/.326/.335
He wasn't around that long and now he's the Royals' problem. I'll sort of miss the Pelican.

LF: Luke Scott
Proj: .269/.367/.511
Act: .257/.336/.472
Pr: .271/.348/.484
Luke was a mild disappointment for me, but he was still a productive player. I guess the AL really is tougher than the NL.

CF: Adam Jones
Proj: .269/.327/.464
Act: .270/.311/.400
Pr: .254/.297/.377
Where's the power? You can't put up a decent SLG when the ball's being hit on the ground so much (47%). And without the power there's not much reason for a pitcher not to challenge him, and so the walks will be lower. At least he can go get them in center. [Jones reminds me a little of Delmon Young in that he too has the raw power but hits the ball on the ground way too much (55%) and so he only slugged .405.]

RF: Nick Markakis
Proj: .297/.365/.500
Act: .306/.406/.491
Pr: .291/.392/.464
Finally utilized that great batting eye. In his prime we may see a .330/.450/.550 season, but .300/.400/.500 is still worth a lot. Sign the man!

DH: Aubrey Huff
Proj: .273/.336/.447
Act: .304/.360/.552
Pr: .290/.346/.517
I really honestly liked the signing when they made it. Doubtful of a repeat, but it was fun while it lasted. And he has a Silver Slugger to show for it.

C: Guillermo Quiroz
Proj: .237/.288/.344
Act: .187/.259/.269
Pr: .239/.304/.347
I got surprisingly close to the PrOPS line, considering he's a back-up catcher. Cool name and actually good defense makes him one of the better #2's the team has had recently.

OF: Jay Payton
Proj: .273/.319/.403
Act: .243/.291/.346
Pr: .275/.318/.405
Wow. I missed his actual line, but the underlying one is right there. May I never have to make a projection for him again.

UTIL: Brandon Fahey
Proj: .246/.304/.309
Act: .226/.252/.349
Pr: .244/.272/.313
I have nothing against Fahey personally, but I never want to see him playing for the team again. If he's even the #2 option at short then the team has major problems.

Total (includes others):
Projected - .269/.337/.427, 789 runs, 4.9 runs / game.
Actual - .267/.333/.429, 782 runs, 4.8 runs / game.

So, yeah. I'm going to give myself a pat on the back for this one. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA - the best projection system around - had the team at .262/.329/.414, 748 runs, 4.6 runs / game. I may not have predicted every team's win totals as well, but I beat them out on the Birds' offense. I'm 1-for-1 at this, and will try to keep the streak alive next year. Too bad my pitching projections were so far off, or the team might have flirted with .500 a little more.

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