Former top prospect and recent headache (why oh why doesn't he pitch better?) Hayden Penn is out of the competition to make the O's rotation. Given the news, I don't think he's likely to make the bullpen either. Penn will instead be starting his year (in all likelihood) in Miami, pitching in some role for the Florida Marlins. That's one way to end the argument about whether he can become a major-league pitcher - make that someone else's problem.
In return, the O's get 24 year-old shortstop (though he's played second, third, and center also) Robert Andino. The guy can't hit (.201/.250/.299 in 144 career at bats) but he's supposed to be a a good defender (he hasn't played enough innings for UZR ratings to be at all valid 9though they are negative), but Tango's fan scouting reports has him as a bit above-average but not great).
CHONE projects him at .237/.296/.352, though he did hit at a .287/.356/.497 clip at Triple-A last year. Andino's out of options (as Penn was) and will make the team as the back-up shortstop.
I don't love the move, as I've always thought Penn could be a capable back-of-the-rotation starter (and better than Adam Eaton is at this stage), but it's not bad by any stretch. I never though it likely that Cesar Izturis could go play in 162 (or even 150 games) so having a guy who can actually play the position credibly is a plus. Really, the thing I like most about the move (and I do like it quite a bit) is that it means the team will go with only 12 pitchers instead of the 13 that had been generally discussed. There is absolutely no need for 13 pitchers - someone is going to be used very sparingly (even with this pitching staff) and that roster spot will just go to waste.
Read more ...
Showing posts with label Marlins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Marlins. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Florida's Annual Salary Dump
Florida has been busy wheeling and dealing already this off-season, completing three trades.
Trade 1
Florida gets:
Leo Nunez, 24 year-old RHRP, 2.98 ERA, 4.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.22 tRA, 128 tRA+ in 48.3 IP. Not arbitration eligible yet. Despite the nice stats he isn't a particularly good reliever - more 6th/7th inning than 9th.
Kansas City gets:
Mike Jacobs, 27 year-old first-baseman, .247/.299/.514, 32 HR, .338 wOBA, 103 wOBA+. Eligible for arbitration for the first time. Lots of power and pretty much nothing else.
The Marlins save money and can just shift Jorge Cantu (or whoever) over to first without seeing any loss overall. Jacobs' defense and OBP are so bad that guys with as much value can be found lying around the minors. In fact, the Royals have Ryan Shealy (.301/.354/.603 in 73 AB) and Kila Ka'aihue (about .316/.455/.629 with 37 HR between AA and AAA) ready to take over for Ross Gload (.273/.317/.348) at first on the cheap. The Marlins didn't get a whole heck of a lot in this deal, but then neither did the Royals.
Trade 2
Florida gets:
Emilio Bonifacio, 23 year-old second-baseman, .248/.305/.344 in limited time in for the Nats and .302/.348/.387 in Triple-A. Maybe a future Tony Womack... maybe.
Jake Smolinski, 19 year-old second-baseman, .261/.338/.402 in low A-ball. "Smolinski is your basic B-level prospect whose value could easily go way up or way down in 2009." - fangraphs
P.J. Dean, 19 year-old RHP, 1.57 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9 in low A-ball. The low HR-rate in consecutive years (0.3 HR/9 in 2007) indicates he gets some groundballs, but I can't find any info on that. "He is a young, projectable right-hander who currently throws 90-92 mph with room to grow. Dean also has a curveball with plus potential and a developing change-up." - fangraphs
Washington gets:
Scott Olson, 24 year-old LHSP, 4.20 ERA, 5.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 5.38 tRA, 87 tRA+. Strike-out rate and velocity falling but a lefty that can throw 200 innings is nice to have around. Still, his stats don't match up to his reputation. Eligible for arbitration for the first time, I think.
Josh Willingham, 29 year-old outfielder, .254/.364/.470, 15 HR, .376 wOBA, 113 wOBA+. The guy can hit but the outfield defense is not very good and he'll start the 2009 season at 30 years old. Also eligible for arbitration for the first time, I think.
It's not a bad trade for the Marlins, but it seems like they should have been able to get more for two established (though probably overrated) major-leaguers. It's not a bad deal for the Nationals either, but why would they be giving up even mediocre prospects for guys who likely won't be around by the time the Nats make the playoffs.
Trade 3
Florida gets:
Jose Ceda, 21 year-old RHRP, 2.08 ERA, 12.5 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9 in 30.1 IP at AA. Has a live arm and could end up as a closer in a couple years.
Chicago Cubs get:
Keving Gregg, 30 year-old RHRP, 3.41 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.85 tRA, 114 tRA+. He's a decent reliever but ended up getting 29 saves as the closer more by default than ability.
It seems that the Cubs are going to cut Kerry Wood loose (he's a free-agent) and let Gregg or Carlos Marmol close. Wood is better than Gregg, and considering the home-town discount I assume Wood would give Chicago and the six lost years of control of Ceda I don't see this as a good trade for the Cubs. I thought that teams were passed looking at the saves column but I guess not. Another cost-cutting move by the Marlins while picking up a nice prospect. Maybe they'll put Leo Nunez in Gregg's spot, let him rack up some saves, and then deal him once he starts getting expensive himself. Read more ...
Trade 1
Florida gets:
Leo Nunez, 24 year-old RHRP, 2.98 ERA, 4.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.22 tRA, 128 tRA+ in 48.3 IP. Not arbitration eligible yet. Despite the nice stats he isn't a particularly good reliever - more 6th/7th inning than 9th.
Kansas City gets:
Mike Jacobs, 27 year-old first-baseman, .247/.299/.514, 32 HR, .338 wOBA, 103 wOBA+. Eligible for arbitration for the first time. Lots of power and pretty much nothing else.
The Marlins save money and can just shift Jorge Cantu (or whoever) over to first without seeing any loss overall. Jacobs' defense and OBP are so bad that guys with as much value can be found lying around the minors. In fact, the Royals have Ryan Shealy (.301/.354/.603 in 73 AB) and Kila Ka'aihue (about .316/.455/.629 with 37 HR between AA and AAA) ready to take over for Ross Gload (.273/.317/.348) at first on the cheap. The Marlins didn't get a whole heck of a lot in this deal, but then neither did the Royals.
Trade 2
Florida gets:
Emilio Bonifacio, 23 year-old second-baseman, .248/.305/.344 in limited time in for the Nats and .302/.348/.387 in Triple-A. Maybe a future Tony Womack... maybe.
Jake Smolinski, 19 year-old second-baseman, .261/.338/.402 in low A-ball. "Smolinski is your basic B-level prospect whose value could easily go way up or way down in 2009." - fangraphs
P.J. Dean, 19 year-old RHP, 1.57 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9 in low A-ball. The low HR-rate in consecutive years (0.3 HR/9 in 2007) indicates he gets some groundballs, but I can't find any info on that. "He is a young, projectable right-hander who currently throws 90-92 mph with room to grow. Dean also has a curveball with plus potential and a developing change-up." - fangraphs
Washington gets:
Scott Olson, 24 year-old LHSP, 4.20 ERA, 5.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 5.38 tRA, 87 tRA+. Strike-out rate and velocity falling but a lefty that can throw 200 innings is nice to have around. Still, his stats don't match up to his reputation. Eligible for arbitration for the first time, I think.
Josh Willingham, 29 year-old outfielder, .254/.364/.470, 15 HR, .376 wOBA, 113 wOBA+. The guy can hit but the outfield defense is not very good and he'll start the 2009 season at 30 years old. Also eligible for arbitration for the first time, I think.
It's not a bad trade for the Marlins, but it seems like they should have been able to get more for two established (though probably overrated) major-leaguers. It's not a bad deal for the Nationals either, but why would they be giving up even mediocre prospects for guys who likely won't be around by the time the Nats make the playoffs.
Trade 3
Florida gets:
Jose Ceda, 21 year-old RHRP, 2.08 ERA, 12.5 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9 in 30.1 IP at AA. Has a live arm and could end up as a closer in a couple years.
Chicago Cubs get:
Keving Gregg, 30 year-old RHRP, 3.41 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.85 tRA, 114 tRA+. He's a decent reliever but ended up getting 29 saves as the closer more by default than ability.
It seems that the Cubs are going to cut Kerry Wood loose (he's a free-agent) and let Gregg or Carlos Marmol close. Wood is better than Gregg, and considering the home-town discount I assume Wood would give Chicago and the six lost years of control of Ceda I don't see this as a good trade for the Cubs. I thought that teams were passed looking at the saves column but I guess not. Another cost-cutting move by the Marlins while picking up a nice prospect. Maybe they'll put Leo Nunez in Gregg's spot, let him rack up some saves, and then deal him once he starts getting expensive himself. Read more ...
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
2008 - Florida Marlins
Another trade makes the teams picks for me, as Florida sent Scott Olson and Josh Willingham to Washington. Florida today, Nats later.
Record: 84-77
Pythagorean Record: 81-80
Third Order Standings (from BPro): 81-80
My Prediction: 73-89
Over/Under: Over 68.5 - Correct
Bad pitching all over the place. The only big bright spot for the Marlins was the emergence of Ricky Nolasco as a top-of-the-rotation type starter. 212 IP, 3.52 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 3.98 tRA, 117 tRA+. That control is new, as it had been 3.8 BB/9 the year before (in very limited time). If he keeps the walks down to a rate close to that then he should be able to continue his success. The aforementioned Scott Olson had a fine 4.20 ERA but only 5.0 K/9 and a bad 5.38 tRA, and lefties Andrew Miller (of the Miguel Cabrera trade) and Mark Hendrickson were similarly bad (tRA's of 5.02 and 5.53 respectively). Josh Johnson and 21 year-old rookie Chris Volstad only pitched half-seasons, but both show some promise for 2009 (tRA's of 3.99 and 4.19). The pen had some moderately effective arms in it, but wasn't any better than the rotation.
The offense boasted one of the best offensive middle-infields in baseball, with Hanley Ramirez continuing his slugging from the shortstop position (.301/.400/.540, 33 HR, .412 wOBA, 124 wOBA+) with some actually improved defense and Dan Uggla butchering the ball with both the bat (.260/.360/.514, 32 HR, .383 wOBA, 116 wOBA+) and the glove (as evidenced by his 3 errors in the All-Star game alone) at second. Jorge Cantu came back from the dead two years after driving in 117 runs for the Devil Rays to hit .277/.327/.481 with 29 HR while playing a poor third-base, and Mike Jacobs completed the trip around the powerful infield by hitting 32 HR with a sad .247/.299/.514 line at first. Josh Willingham (.254/.364/.470, .376 wOBA) and Cody Ross (.260/.316/.488, 22 HR, .348 wOBA) added even more pop from the outfield. If only they had some defense.
The Marlins were in contention for much of the season, even trading a prospect for Arthur Rhodes late in the year. Perennial MVP candidate (or at least he should be) Hanley Ramirez will keep the team interesting all by himself, but the organization has shown an ability to compete once every few years on a shoe-string budget so they can't be counted out. Read more ...
Record: 84-77
Pythagorean Record: 81-80
Third Order Standings (from BPro): 81-80
My Prediction: 73-89
Over/Under: Over 68.5 - Correct
Bad pitching all over the place. The only big bright spot for the Marlins was the emergence of Ricky Nolasco as a top-of-the-rotation type starter. 212 IP, 3.52 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 3.98 tRA, 117 tRA+. That control is new, as it had been 3.8 BB/9 the year before (in very limited time). If he keeps the walks down to a rate close to that then he should be able to continue his success. The aforementioned Scott Olson had a fine 4.20 ERA but only 5.0 K/9 and a bad 5.38 tRA, and lefties Andrew Miller (of the Miguel Cabrera trade) and Mark Hendrickson were similarly bad (tRA's of 5.02 and 5.53 respectively). Josh Johnson and 21 year-old rookie Chris Volstad only pitched half-seasons, but both show some promise for 2009 (tRA's of 3.99 and 4.19). The pen had some moderately effective arms in it, but wasn't any better than the rotation.
The offense boasted one of the best offensive middle-infields in baseball, with Hanley Ramirez continuing his slugging from the shortstop position (.301/.400/.540, 33 HR, .412 wOBA, 124 wOBA+) with some actually improved defense and Dan Uggla butchering the ball with both the bat (.260/.360/.514, 32 HR, .383 wOBA, 116 wOBA+) and the glove (as evidenced by his 3 errors in the All-Star game alone) at second. Jorge Cantu came back from the dead two years after driving in 117 runs for the Devil Rays to hit .277/.327/.481 with 29 HR while playing a poor third-base, and Mike Jacobs completed the trip around the powerful infield by hitting 32 HR with a sad .247/.299/.514 line at first. Josh Willingham (.254/.364/.470, .376 wOBA) and Cody Ross (.260/.316/.488, 22 HR, .348 wOBA) added even more pop from the outfield. If only they had some defense.
The Marlins were in contention for much of the season, even trading a prospect for Arthur Rhodes late in the year. Perennial MVP candidate (or at least he should be) Hanley Ramirez will keep the team interesting all by himself, but the organization has shown an ability to compete once every few years on a shoe-string budget so they can't be counted out. Read more ...
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Seattle Did Something Right
The Mariners finally started their rebuilding (reloading?), while the Marlins, unable to get an impact player (MannyBeingManny, for example), just picked up that lefty reliever they've been after.
Florida got:
Arthur Rhodes, 38 year-old LHRP, 2.86 ERA in 22 IP this year, with 26 K's, 13 BB's and a 1.36 WHIP.
Seattle got:
Gaby Hernandez, 22 year-old RHP, 7.24 ERA in 64.2 IP in Triple-A this year, with 54 K's, 26 BB's, and a 1.86 WHIP before being demoted to Double-A (4.30 ERA, 1.09 WHIP there).
Rhodes has been very effective as a LOOGY, holding lefties to a .195/.327/.244 line this year. Hernandez was hurt part of the year and has struggled, but he's still young and has three quality pitches. The deal is fine for Florida, but I especially like it for Seattle. They have no use for Rhodes, and turned him into a a cheap and potentially effective starter. Good job Mariners? (I'm sorry, but it's hard to say that definitively this season.) Read more ...
Florida got:
Arthur Rhodes, 38 year-old LHRP, 2.86 ERA in 22 IP this year, with 26 K's, 13 BB's and a 1.36 WHIP.
Seattle got:
Gaby Hernandez, 22 year-old RHP, 7.24 ERA in 64.2 IP in Triple-A this year, with 54 K's, 26 BB's, and a 1.86 WHIP before being demoted to Double-A (4.30 ERA, 1.09 WHIP there).
Rhodes has been very effective as a LOOGY, holding lefties to a .195/.327/.244 line this year. Hernandez was hurt part of the year and has struggled, but he's still young and has three quality pitches. The deal is fine for Florida, but I especially like it for Seattle. They have no use for Rhodes, and turned him into a a cheap and potentially effective starter. Good job Mariners? (I'm sorry, but it's hard to say that definitively this season.) Read more ...
Saturday, May 10, 2008
The Franchise Fish
The Florida Marlins have reportedly opened up the purse strings, signing start shortstop Hanley Ramirez to a six-year $70 million extension. That is a great deal for the Marlins, as I'd say Ramirez will be worth around $20 million a year (he had a 7.4 WARP1 last year - Texas SS Michael Young recently signed a $16 million a year deal, and is about a 6 WARP1 player, so that's $2.67 million/WARP1 - 7.4 * $2.67 = about $20; plus is seems that his defense has been improving and he should be going into his peak, whereas Young is leaving his) and I think that figure is definitely on the low side, as there will be salary inflation and such. Also, this is a very simplistic way to value Ramirez - I don't feel like doing my due diligence.
In any case, for those six years he would get around ($20 * 40% for year one of arbitration = ) $8 + ($20 * 60% for year two of arbitration = ) $12 + ($20 * 80% for year three of arbitration = ) $16 + 3 * $20 = $96 million. Again, this is really a conservative estimate. Hanley's average annual salary of $11.667 million would place him fifth among shortstops, despite him probably being the top guy at the position. Even if he has to move to center field, Ramirez would still be getting paid less per year than Aaron Rowand. Great deal for the Marlins.
If Florida had to decide between signing Miguel Cabrera and Hanley, I think they made the right decision. If Ramirez really can become an average defensive shortstop, then his bat will be much more valuable than Cabrera's at first - and at half the total cost. Congratulations to Hanley on being set for life, and to the Marlins for locking up a franchise player. I guess this means that Nick should only take 6 years, $55 million (or seven/65, or such). Teams get good return by signing young players before they have to, and most of them are quickly realizing that. Read more ...
In any case, for those six years he would get around ($20 * 40% for year one of arbitration = ) $8 + ($20 * 60% for year two of arbitration = ) $12 + ($20 * 80% for year three of arbitration = ) $16 + 3 * $20 = $96 million. Again, this is really a conservative estimate. Hanley's average annual salary of $11.667 million would place him fifth among shortstops, despite him probably being the top guy at the position. Even if he has to move to center field, Ramirez would still be getting paid less per year than Aaron Rowand. Great deal for the Marlins.
If Florida had to decide between signing Miguel Cabrera and Hanley, I think they made the right decision. If Ramirez really can become an average defensive shortstop, then his bat will be much more valuable than Cabrera's at first - and at half the total cost. Congratulations to Hanley on being set for life, and to the Marlins for locking up a franchise player. I guess this means that Nick should only take 6 years, $55 million (or seven/65, or such). Teams get good return by signing young players before they have to, and most of them are quickly realizing that. Read more ...
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