O's Get The Win On Draft Day

The O's have lost five games in a row, but in more important long-term news for the team, today was the Rule IV draft. With the #5 pick in the first round, the Orioles chose high school right-handed pitcher Matt Hobgood. I hadn't seen Hobgood even going in the top 10 in any mock drafts, and while not it's not a really out there pick, it certainly wasn't expected. Hobgood's a big guy at 6'4" 245, throws pretty hard, and is supposed to have some secondary pitches. I still don't get the pick though, with Zach Wheeler, Tyler Matzek, Jacob Turner, and various other pitchers still on the board who were more highly regarded than Hobgood. I'm generally not a big fan of drafting pitchers high given their attrition rate, but this draft didn't have very many well regarded position players so I understand going with the arm at #5. Why Hobgood though?

From the MLB Outsider mock draft, where he was picked at #26:

"The 18 year-old Hobgood is 10-0 with a 0.34 ERA, 90 K's, 21 BB's with Norco HS in the Mountain View League. His 2-seam fastball has officially been clocked at 93 mph, but Baseball Beginnings professes that the speed may actually increase to 95 mph in the middle innings. Besides 2-seam and 4-seam fastballs, Hobgood also mixes in curveballs and change-ups. His 6'4" frame enables him to have a higher release point than other pitchers, giving him another edge over hitters.

Hobgood is also hitting .479/20/53 as a senior, making him somewhat more appealing to NL clubs, plus 19 put outs and 13 assists with 0 errors defensively. Hobgood has been on the varsity squad at Norco for all four years in high school, three as a starter, and was named first team All-League back in '07, for his sophomore season. Weight had been somewhat of a problem for Hobgood, but he lost weight for his senior season and has made it a point of emphasis in his conditioning in preparation for his professional career."

From the Baseball Prospectus chat:

"Kevin Goldstein (3:39:02 PM PT): Baltimore eyed young pitching all along, but in the end, they decided that the top guys weren't worth the coin as they take Matt Hobgood, A guy most people saw as a mid-to-late first round kind of talent.

If you see the video on MLB, you can see why conditioning could end up an issue. MLB people talking about how he moved up, but there's only one reason -- when teams called him, he didn't mention the name Rick Porcello....

Kiley McDaniel (3:39:58 PM PT): Bryan: Is it weirder to see Sanchez or Hobgood in the top 5?

Bryan Smith (3:41:44 PM PT): Kiley, I think it's weirder to see Sanchez, because he has a lot less upside. But the weirdest, to me, is that the Orioles are so worried about signability: with the successes of picks like Wieters and Jake Arrieta, you'd think the Orioles would understand more than everyone else how to benefit from other teams tight wallets...

Kevin Goldstein (4:46:47 PM PT): dkdc (NYC): Where would you rank Hobgood in the Baltimore pitching hierarchy? I'm guessing he's behind Tillman and Matusz, but is he ahead of Arrieta? Erbe? Patton?

Top of head, I'd put him behind all of them but Patton . . . maybe Erbe depending on the health."

Additionally, the BP guys seemed to agree that the #11-20 picks were generally better than the top 10 picks (excluding Strasburg, I imagine). Thats' not good for baseball, but that really seems to be what happened. It's a capshoot anyway, but still.

From Saberscouting:

"Hobgood caught scouts’ attention at recent showcases in similar fashion to Younginer: with big stuff and a lack of contol. Hobgood has worked from 91-95, depending on whether he’s working with a power sinker or trying to top out a four-seamer for the radar guns. With either approach, he hasn’t been hitting spots too often and had trouble locating his offspeed pitches. There’s a lack of feel, some effort in the delivery, and some softness in his body, but the pure power stuff and workhorse frame are there."

From MLB.com:

Fastball:	Hobgood threw his fastball in the 89-92 mph range and went right after hitters with it.
Fastball movement:	Has heavy, hard life.
Curve:	A plus pitch, 11-to-5, true curve, thrown 74-79 mph. It has the chance to be the best high school curve in this class.
Slider:	It's slurvy at 80 mph, and is a usable pitch.
Changeup:	Didn't show a changeup and may lack a feel for it.
Control:	Has average high school command, but was throwing to the radar gun a bit too much.
Poise:	Exceptional. He challenged hitters, daring them to try and hit him. He has a little mean streak on the mound.
Physical Description:	Hobgood is a big, physical animal -- like a Josh Beckett type.
Medical Update:	Healthy.
Strengths:	Size, strength and durability. Also has two plus pitches now, with the intangibles to be a front-of-the-rotation starter.
Weaknesses:	Doesn't show a feel for a changeup. He lands a little hard and will have to soften his front side a little to hone command.
Summary:	Hobgood is a big, strong right-hander with two plus offerings in his heavy fastball and outstanding curve. Some small tweaks to his delivery should help him find even better fastball command. If he can add a changeup to go along with his other offerings and his tremendous mound presence, he has the chance to be a front-of-the-rotation starter in the future.

From Joe Jordan, via MASN:

"As always, every year we've got a group of two or three names we were wrestling on. I just got a gut feeling on this one, seperated it with more intangible stuff than anything. He's 6'4" and has power stuff. A high school kid that throws up to 95 or 96. He'll attack hitters with his sinker, his 2 seamer at 92,93. He throws a breaking ball for a strike and has a feel for a changeup. He's ready physically....

It's more a Kevin Millwood type package for me. This is a guy that if we're right, we can stack some innings on this guy. I think he'll be physical enough to handle it. I'll take that...

He's got a curveball, slider and changeup. Like most high school guys, he doesn't use his changeup enough, that's something that will have to be developed. But he's got quality to all of them. I would never take a guy at number five that was a big project or anything. This guy knows what he is doing, he'll be fine. He's going to really do well vs. wooden bats...

This was not a money saver. I knew I would be asked that, because he wasn't a name guy that people kept seeing in the paper. We scouted him all year long, I saw him the first time early in February and saw him two times after that. This had nothing to do with money. Look at what we've done lately. It's who I want and who our staff wants."

So, here's the deal (in my opinion); the team had several pitchers ranked very close together on talent - with them having Hobgood higher than most other teams but still not quite at the top - and decided that it made more sense to pick the guy they could sign easier and then put those savings to maybe going over slot later in the draft. If that is, in fact, their reasoning, then I'm more or less OK with it. The video clips I saw of him looked good (nice fastball and a plus curve), but I don't believe that Hobgood was legitimately the best player left at #5.

Here's video of Hobgood + family and friends during the draft. Regardless of my feelings above, he seems like a good kid and I'm happy to have him in the system. I'll be cheering for him.

Round two saw the O's pick two-way player Mychal Givens (high schooler as well), who was announced as a pitcher. (Really? Mychal? Is that necessary?)

From BP:

"Kevin Goldstein (6:36:17 PM PT): Really like the selection of Mychal Givens at 54 by the Orioles, a two-way star who was announced as a pitcher. He has a lot a velocity, but his arm angle and action is a bit kooky. Still, he dropped more because he didn't do as well as expected as opposed to him suddenly not being good."

From Saberscouting:

"At the PG National showcase, he was up to 94 while flashing an above-average slider and changeup from a low 3/4 arm angle; similar to what I saw, but showing improvement across the board."

Givens is a good athlete, and as a lanky guy he should have some room to add a little velocity as he fills out. The video of him makes me think more reliever than starter though. [Edit: Apparently they actually intend to have him play shortstop instead of pitch. That makes much more sense to me.]

Alrighty, then. From MLB.com:

Hitting ability:	Givens isn't a raw hitter, like some athletic high schoolers are, but there is some risk in his bat.
Power:	He's got some strength for future power, but doesn't currently have a power stroke. He hits off his front foot.
Running speed:	He's not a burner, but he does have plus speed.
Base running:	He appears to have a good idea of what he's doing on the basepaths.
Arm strength:	Also a talented pitching prospect, he has at least plus arm strength.
Fielding:	He shows the ability to be a good defender at shortstop.
Range:	He's got very good actions and can go left and right very well.
Physical Description:	Givens has a rangy, athletic frame that should allow him to add strength as he matures
Medical Update:	Healthy.
Strengths:	His athleticism, with plus speed and good overall defensive actions.
Weaknesses:	Will he hit enough? There's talent there, but there's a question over whether the bat will carry to the next level.
Summary:	Givens is one of the better all-around athletes in the Draft class who will get looks both at shortstop and on the mound on Draft day. He's a good defender with a plus arm who uses his athleticism well. A plus runner, he's got the kind of frame that should allow him to get stronger ... which could lead to more power. The key to unlocking that will be a better overall hitting approach. There is some risk with his bat, but if a team feels he'll hit, he'll go early.

From Saberscouting:

"Givens has all the makings of a first-round prep shortstop with a body that won’t outgrow the position, true shortstop actions with above-average defensive tools, and a quick release from a good arm that sits in the low 90s on the mound. He’s also an excellent athlete and basketball standout that made an amazing play at pitcher versus Dunedin as he charged a swinging bunt to field and flip to the catcher in one motion while he was running past home plate. He’s a vocal leader, good student, and likable personality with great makeup...

His speed is deceptive: he looks more quick than fast and somewhat labored once underway, but I got him at 3.87 to first from the right side on a bunt (confirmed on video) and he’s a 55 to 60 runner.

So there’s all the reasons to like Givens, but there are some things I saw that I didn’t like from these two games. Givens certainly has more upside as a shortstop as he lacked feel on the mound and throws from a true sidearm angle, which is very effective in the 90s versus high school competition, but would project him as a set-up man at best in pro ball.

As far as his swing goes, the elements are there and he has shown the ability to hit with wood against top competition, but the mechanics break down too often for me, and with his smallish frame (I’d estimate 5′10, 170) and lack of leverage, he projects to have average power at best. He struggled to square the ball up against average to good pitching when I saw him and showed bad habits in lunging at the ball, being flat-footed, out on his front foot, and an intricate toe-touch I’m not crazy about. Still, those are things that don’t become problems until professional ball, so he was still clearly the best player on the field.

I think Givens compares favorably to past hyped shortstop prospects like Jays’ SS prospect Justin Jackson or Padres SS prospect Drew Cumberland. Both were late-first to supplemental round prospects with limited ceiling or warts at the plate, a long track record of success, great defense, and the makeup to succeed with all eyes on them."

It's nice to get a shortstop into the system, but from the video I saw it doesn't look like he'll ever be an impact hitter. I have hopes that he'll stick at short and hit well enough to at least make it to the majors there. [Note: Justin Jackson is hitting .247 in A-Ball with modest on-base skills and no power. It's his third year in pro-ball. Drew Cumberland is hitting .316 with relatively poor on-base skills and no power in A-ball, also in his third year.]

In the third round (the last of the day), the O's selected first-baseman Tyler Townsend, who put up very good numbers in college. He's tried to work out in RF but will end up at first, and he's been compared to Brad Hawpe (who's a good hitter, but not as valuable at first).

From BP:

"Bryan Smith (7:22:05 PM PT): I don't know, if I'm the Orioles, I'm a lot more interested in high school slugger Jeff Malm than I am Tyler Townsend, college numbers be damned. The Orioles draft today has been strange -- their budget is clearly being impacted by the economy."

There were a fair number of slugging first-baseman in the draft last year, and the O's passed on the them much to my chagrin. At least they went for it this time, and I'll mostly hold out judgment until we see how Townsend does with a wood bat. Apparently he's a local kid (from Delaware) and really wanted to be an Oriole. That's nice to hear.

That's it for day one of the draft, which certainly had some surprises. On the bright side, all three guys the team picked are pretty good and the O's should have a decent amount of money left to take some players that slide due to signability reasons and pay them over slot. Joe Jordan has more or less earned the benefit of the doubt. we'll see how things shake out the next couple of days.
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Oh right, the game!

Well Brad Bergesen looked very good, and he had the strike-out pitch working. The final line was 8 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K. He also kept the ball down for the entire game (which has sometimes been an issue for him) which resulted in a lot of groundballs (14 GB to 4 FB) and no home runs. There was talk of him being comfortable working with Wieters behind the plate, and so far (small sample size warning), that's been the case. In his last three games he's gone 23 IP, 17 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 12 K, only 1 HR, and lowered is ERA from 5.49 to 4.04.

Nolan Reimold provided some offense, hitting his 7th home run of the year (a solo shot) and adding an RBI single, and George Sherrill pitched the ninth and picked up a save despite giving up a run.

The O's get off the schneid with the 3-1 win. [Note: "To break a scoreless, hitless, or winless streak (i.e., a schneid). According to the Dickson Baseball Dictionary, the term "schneid" comes to baseball via gin rummy, and in turn comes from German / Yiddish "schneider," one who cuts cloth, i.e., a tailor." - Wikipedia]
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Bedard Beats O's, M's Were Still Fleeced

After a good pitching duel yesterday, with Rich Hill beating Jarrod Washburn 1-0, we've got another interesting match-up tonight. David Hernandez will make his second start of the season after getting the win against Detroit with 5.2 innings of one-run ball. Since the Pitch/FX for that start is strangely not available on FanGraphs, I'll talk about his opponent instead.

Erik Bedard didn't have a very season in 2008 after being traded to Seattle. He was injured, throwing only 81 IP with a 3.67 ERA, but his walks shot up (4.1 BB/9 after 2.8 BB/9 in 2007) and that lead to an only average 4.85 tRA. This year Bedard is back on track, with a 2.48 ERA. His strike-out rate hasn't risen back to 2007's likely career high (10.9 K/9), but it's a very good 8.9 K/9 and his control is the best it's ever been (2.5 BB/9). That's resulted in a 3.75 tRA.

Still, that trade was a very, very bad one for Seattle (though it did put the nail in Bill Bavasi's coffin, which is good for the long-term health of the team given the very capable front-office that's been assembled now). How bad was it? Well, even if you break it up into 2 trades, then they're still bad.

1) Erik Bedard for Adam Jones: Bedard was worth (from FanGraphs) 1.1 WAR ($4.7 M) in 2008 and is on pace for about 3.6 WAR (about $17 M) this year. That's 4.7 WAR (about $21.7 M) while being paid a total of $14.5 M - that's about $7.2 M in excess value. Adam Jones was worth 2.2 WAR ($10 M) last year and is at 1.9 WAR ($8.5 M) already this year. Not on pace for (that would be about 5.7 WAR) - already at. That's 4.1 WAR already in from Jones for $18.5 M in value while being paid less than a million dollars total. Without taking into account anyone the M's might acquire for Bedard in a trade or via a draft-pick if he leaves as a free-agent - or the remaining 4 years that Jones is under Orioles' control - the Mariners have already lost this one.

2) Erik Bedard for George Sherrill and Chris Tillman (lets even pretend that Kam "The Almighty" Mickolio (4.50 ERA in Triple-A but with 26 K's and 6 BB's in 20 IP) and Tony Butler (4.42 ERA in A-Ball with 44 K's and 11 BB's in 50 IP) won't ever contribute in the majors): Bedard has the aforementioned $7.2 M in projected excess value, and this time lets add in the expected excess value of the draft-picks Seattle would get if he's a Type-A free agent. Over at The Hardball Times they valued those picks at about $3-5 M, but given the success Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik had with the draft in Milwaukee, let's lean towards the high end of that range. So that knocks the excess value from Bedard up to about $12 M.

George Sherrill was worth about 0.4 WAR ($1.7 M) last year while being paid $1.0 M, and is on pace for about 0.9 WAR (about $4.3 M) this year while being paid $2.75 M. That's $2.25 M in excess value.

Victor Wang did some research on value of prospects, which I'm going to use. Combining the top prospect lists going into 2009 from Baseball America (#22), Kevin Goldstein (#16), Keith Law (#40), and Deric McKamey (somewhere around #25), Chris Tillman (2.13 ERA in Triple-A with 44 K's and 13 BB's in 38 IP) ranks about 24th in baseball and 9th amongst pitchers (he's about equal to Brian Matusz, by the way). Top 10 pitchers have an expected excess value of about $13.5 M. That's already more than what Bedard is projected to provide to Seattle, and then add Sherrill (and Mickolio/Butler if you want), and this is another pretty clear win for Baltimore - even if it isn't quit as lopsided as the Adam Jones one.

In fact - depending on your opinion of Mickolio and Butler, and the value Sherrill can bring to the O's in his remainging time in Baltimore (I'd say about zero total, with some positive times and some negative times - though more if they can trade him for something decent) - one could even say that the O's would have come out even or ahead if this was split into 3 trades (Jones, Tillman, and Sherrill/Mickolio/Butler). No reason to get greedy though. It was an absolute steal as it is.

And it'll feel even better if the O's can beat Bedard in this game (though I'm still a fan, and would be open to bringing him back after the season if he'll take a discount).

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Top 1:

• Brian Roberts ends a long at bat with a pop-up to short.
• Adam Jones grounds the first pitch he sees to third.
• Nick Markakis grounds the first pitch he sees to first. I think these guys forgot that being patient at the plate is what helped bring them so much success early in the season.
  

Bottom 1:

• Ichiro! bounces a groundball into the hole at short and beats out Izturis' throw. That sets a new M's franchise record for a hitting streak at 26 games, beating the previous record of 25 games held by Ichiro!.
• Russell Branyan (batting second?) grounds a single into right-field.
• Adrian Beltre pops a 95 mph fastball at the letters up, and Ty Wigginton (playing first) makes the catch in foul territory.
• Hey, it's the zombie of Ken Griffey Jr! Seriously though, it's really nice to see Junior back in an M's uniform - he can't catch up to a good fastball (fouls off 97, then misses 94 and 96), but things are just better in the universe with Griffey back in Seattle.
• Jose Lopez hits a flyball to deep left that should end the inning, but the ball goes off of Reimold's glove and two runs score. Both will be "earned".
  
• Yuniesky Betancourt pops out to second.
  

Top 2:

• Aubrey Huff flies out to center. Bedard looks good thus far, but not dominant - the O's can score a couple runs off of him I think.
• Melvin Mora ropes a double just fair down the left-field line.
• Wigginton grounds out to short.
• Mora steals third without a throw.
• Matt Wieters grounds out to third.
  

Bottom 2:

• Rob Johnson hits a lead-off double to left-center field.
• Endy Chavez drops down a sac bunt.
• Frankiln Gutierrez draws a walk.
  
• Ichiro! pops out to Wieters behind the plate.
• Branyan hits a monster shot just foul down the right-field down. He ends up popping out to Mora in shallow left-field to leave the runners on.
  

Top 3:

• Sharp 3-2 curveball gets Reimold looking.
• Izturis strikes out looking as well.
• Roberts lines out to third.
  

Bottom 3:

• Beltre grounds a single through the left-side.
• Griffey pops out to Mora.
• Lopez doubles into the left-field corner.
• Betancourt grounds out to third, but that will bring in another run. 3-0, M's.
• Johnson flies out to left to end the inning.
  

Top 4:

• Adam Jones with a long flyball to left (man, the ball really doesn't carry well in Seattle) - it goes off the wall in the corner for a lead-off double.
• Markakis draws a walk. WOOOOOO! I may be the only person that gets really excited when Nick walks - maybe it's because I spent so much effort trying to show that his great walk rate from last year wasn't a fluke.
  
• Huff flies out to deep center-field. That might have been gone in Cmaden Yards.
• Mora pops out.
• Wigginton lines out to right. The O's really needed to score there, and they couldn't come through.
  

Bottom 4:

• Ichiro! serves a two-out single to left.
• Hernandez strikes Branyan out swinging to end the inning.
  

Top 5:

• Wieters lines a single into left-center.
• Fastball on the inside corner gets Reimold looking.
• Izturis bounces to short, though the M's can only get the force at second.
• After a steal of second by Cesar, Roberts strikes out swinging at a high fastball.
  

Bottom 5:

• Beltre singles to left-field.
• Griffey doubles over Jones' head in center-field. It was on a 92 mph fastball down in the zone, and he just dropped the head of the bat on it. I guess after striking him out and touching 97 in the first, Hernandez is trying to conserve some energy now and stay in the game long enough for his teammates to put some runs on the board for him. The O's have Mark Hendrickson is warming up in the pen.
  
• Lopez grounds out to short, which brings in the fourth Seattle run.
• Betancourt flies out to center.
• Johnson grounds up the middle, but Izturis ranges across the bag to get the ball and throw him out.
  

Top 6:

• High fastball gets Jones swinging.
• Markakis grounds out to short.
• Absurd curveball gets Huff looking. It started right at him and broke over the heart of the plate.
  

Bottom 6:

• Wigginton dives/falls down to snag a grounder by Chavez and takes it to the bag himself for the out.
• Gutierrez singles to right-center. That'll be the last batter Hernandez faces today, with Hendrickson coming in.
• Ichiro! grounds to short with Izturis getting just the force at second.
• Branyan walks on four pitches.
• Beltre singles to right to bring in Ichiro!, but Wigginton cuts off Markakis' throw home and fires to third to get Branyan to end the inning. Run counts though, and it's 5-0.
  

Top 7:

• Mora swings through a fastball for Bedard's 8th K.
• Wigginton singles to left.
• Wieters, with a patient at bat, draws the first walk of his career.
• Reimold battles through a tough plate appearance - fouling off several pitches - before drawing a walk himself.
• We've decided here that if Izturis hits a grand slam we're going to go get a beer. It won't be off of Bedard though, with Sean White coming in (12 BB and 11 K in 25.2 IP this year - those aren't good numbers). And it won't be Izturis either, with Luke Scott coming up to pinch-hit against the right-hander. Tired Bedard vs. Izturis or Sean White vs. Scott? Tough call, but I think I would have stuck with Erik.
  
• Scott grounds to third, but Branyan's only play is at first. That gets the O's on the board.
• Roberts grounds up the middle, but White snags it and throws him out. 5-1, M's.
  

Bottom 7:

• Griffey doubles deep into the left-field corner.
• Lopez grounds out to first, but that advances Junior to third.
• Matt Albers will take over on the mound for the O's.
• Betancourt grounds out to third, with Mora looking Griffey back to the bag.
• Gutierrez walks.
• Nice tailing away from Chavez gets him swinging.
  

Top 8:

• Jones grounds a single through the right side.
• Markakis hits a groundball to second, with Lopez taking it to second himself and getting taken out by a Jones' slide. His throw to first was way high, and Nick is safe.
• Huff hits another long flyball to the track in center that Gutierrez gets to. I'm not a big fan of "arena baseball", but playing in Seattle is frustrating.
• Mora pops out to end the inning.
  

Bottom 8:

• Albers gives up a lead-off single and gets replaced by Jamie Walker on the mound.
• Ichiro! flies out to center.
• Branyan deep and gone to right. 7-1, Seattle. Walker has now given up 3 HR to left-handed batters in 4.2 IP this year.
• Beltre flies out to center.
  
• Make that 4 HR in 5 IP to lefties. Ken Griffey Jr. hits #617 for his career. It was a breaking ball down and away, and Junior went out and hooked it.
• Lopez doubles to deep center-field. Walker isn't fooling anybody, and if Andy McPhail came down to the field right now to cut Jamie then I'd be A-OK with it.
• Betancourt grounds out to third.
  

Top 9:

• Felix Pie will pinch-hit against Denny Stark. Nice piece of hitting by Pie as he lines a double off the chalk down the left-field line. I still have faith in him to be a quality major leaguer, even if he'll only get a real chance in Baltimore if an injury occurs at this point. And 88 at bats does not a "real chance" make, though his PrOPS line of .249/.318/.388 isn't exaclty a confidence booster.
  
• Wieters bounces out to second. His timing looks just a little bit off at the plate.
• Robert Andino (who came in to play shor when Scott hit for Izturis) flies out to right to score Pie.
• Luke grounds out to second to end the game.
  

David Hernandez showed some impressive stuff, throwing a very hard "rising" fastball (92-97 mph, though without much run in on right-handed batters), a nice change-up that he didn't throw for strikes as much as one would like, and a sharp slider. The general line on him has been that he posted good strike-out numbers in the minors (with iffy control) but that scouts didn't like him very much as a potential quality major league starter. If he can keep the walks down, I don't see any reason he can't hang around as a #4 starter. His line doesn't look pretty (5.1 IP, 10 H, 5 R, 1 BB, 2 K), but two of those runs could easily been kept off the board if Reimold had taken a normal route to a flyball in the first inning. When you give up a lot of balls in play, sometimes the hits will fall in. Unfortunately for Hernandez, Erik Bedard was very effective for Seattle. The O's had there chances, but couldn't take advantage and lose 8-2.
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O's-M's, Pitching Rules As O's Eek Out 1-0 Win

The O's dropped the last two games of their series with Detroit after being on a little bit of a roll. They'll try to get back in the win column out on the West coast against the 24-27 Seattle Mariners.

It'll be a battle of left-handers with Rich Hill (6.14 ERA, 4.13 tRA) facing off against Jarrod Washburn (3.45 ERA, 4.55 tRA). Hill was largely ineffective in his last start against Toronto, giving up 7 runs in 3.1 IP. For him, success comes when he has some command of his fastball. Thus far this season, he's thrown only 43% of his pitches in the zone. That hasn't bitten him too badly (though a 5.5 BB/9 is awful) because hitters are still chasing pitches out of the zone (swinging at 22.4% of them, compared to 24.5% as the league average). If they stop doing that though - like they did last year when it was just 10.8% - then Hill may be in a lot more trouble. The curveball is great, but the fastball is down even more velocity-wise to 87.5 mph on average (88.3 mph last year, and 89.4 the year before) and with some control his ceiling is likely that of a #3/4 starter. Now that's still a big addition for the O's staffs of late, but with the young pitchers coming up he may not be able to keep his job for too much longer without showing some improvement somewhere.

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Top 1:

• Adam Jones fouls off a few pitches and draws a one-out walk.
• He ends the inning still at first though, as Nick Markakis and Aubrey Huff both fly out.
  

Bottom 1:

• Ichiro (!) starts the game with a double to left-field, and then takes third as Nolan Reimold's throw in goes off-line.
  
• Yuniesky Betancourt pops out to second.
• Hill elevates a fastball to the shoulders, and Adrain Beltre helps him out by weakly swinging and missing for the K.
• Mike Sweeney pops out to first. Nice job by Hill to leave the runner at third stranded.
  
• 
  

Top 2:

• With one out, the most recent Player of the Week - Luke Scott - lines a single off the wall in right-field.
• Cut fastball down and in gets Matt Wieters swinging.
• Reimold singles through the right-side.
• Cesar Izturis bounces out to second to end the inning.
  

Bottom 2:

• Russell Branyan walks. Branyan has finally been given a shot to play full-time, and boy is he taking advantage of it (.323/.413/.614, 11 HR, .433 wOBA coming into the game).
• Jose Lopez grounds to second for an easy double play.
• Wladimir Balentien walks on four pitches. Hill's not showing any improvement in fastball command thus far, and the curve isn't falling in for strikes much either.
• He strikes out Rob Johnson on three pitches though.
  

Top 3:

• Markakis grounds to short, but Betancourt throws the ball away and he's safe at first with two down. Nick hit .381/.460/.600 in April and .240/281/.438 in May. The drop in average; fine. Balls don't fall in and all that - BABIP fluctuations - it happens. It's the drop in walk to strike-out ratio from 13-13 to 6-13 that's concerning. He's getting less balls thrown in the zone to him, but he's swinging less at those and more at pitches out of the zone. And his fielding out in right has been awful. Add it all up and he's only been about a replacement level player thus far (just 0.1 WAR or so). Very disappointing, though it has to pick up.
• Oh, and Huff pops out to end the inning.
  

Bottom 3:

• Franklin Gutierrez walks on four pitches. Hill's lucky the M's don't have a particularly good offense.
• Ichiro (!) grounds to second, but the can only get the force at second.
• Betancourt singles to left.
• Usually Hill can make up for his lack of fastball command by throwing curveballs in the zone. Tonight though, a lot of those are hanging up and out of the zone themselves.
• Beltre pops out, with Huff reaching over the railing into the M's dugout to make the catch.
• Sharp curve/slider gets Sweeney, as he's not able to check his swing. Again Hill gets himself into - and then out of - trouble.
  

Top 4:

• 1-2-3 go the O's.
  

Bottom 4:

• 1-2-3 go the M's. A couple groundouts and a K, with 9 of 13 pitches classified as strikes (only 26 of 50 in the first three innings).
  

Top 5:

• Reimold lines a single to left.
• Very quick turn of the double play off an Izturis grounder to second.
• Roberts strikes out.
  

Bottom 5:

• Another 1-2-3 inning for Hill (all 9 pitches were strikes).
  

Top 6:

• Adam Jones breaks his bat on a foul ball, and then uses the new one to line a double over the left-fielders head. The ball beat Jones to second, but it was a bit off-line and Adam just got in there.
• Markakis lines a single to center and the O's have runners on the corners.
• Huff hits a flyball to deep center to bring in Jones. Nick tags up himself and goes to second, just getting in ahead of the tag with a nice slide. O's up 1-0.
• Mora flies out to right.
• Scott flies out to the track in right.
  

Bottom 6:

• Fastball on the inside corner gets Beltre looking for the second out of the sixth.
• Nasty 69 mph curveball swung on and missed for strike two. That thing could get people to fall over trying to get it. Sweeney flies out to end the inning.
• Hill's retired 11 in a row.
  

Top 7:

• Wieters drives a 3-2 pitch into deep center-field, but Gutierrez is able to just run it down. It didn't even look like he hit it that hard, but the ball traveled about 400 ft.
• Reimold flies out to short right.
• Izturis singles up the middle.
• Roberts flies out to right.
  

Bottom 7:

• Nice curveball gets Branyan swinging. The count was 3-2, but Hill has shown that he'll throw the hook in any count.
• Lopez pops out to Wieters.
• Fastball gets Baletnien looking.
  

Top 8:

• Chris Jakubauskas in for Washburn, who pitched pretty well and definitely used the big outfield to his advantage.
• Markakis draws a one-out walk. That's his first base on balls since May 17th. Yikes.
• Amazing play by Branyan to make a diving stop of a Huff grounder, throw to second for the force, and then get back to the bag to catch the relay. That's a Web Gem right there.
  

Bottom 8:

• Jim Johnson will come in to hold the 1-0 lead.
• 97 mph fastball boring down and in gets Rob Johnson swinging.
• Another one at 93 gets Gutierrez swinging.
• Ichiro flies out to left.
  

Top 9:

• Mora flies out to right.
• Scott strikes out looking.
• Wieters, batting left-handed for the first time today, strikes out looking as well. Hey, but at least he called a good game.
  

Bottom 9:

• George Sherrill in for the save.
• Betancourt flies out to deep center.
• Beltre flies out to deep center.
• Sweeney flies out to deep right.
  

Rich Hill started out shaky, but he really settled down and pitched well (7IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 7 K). O's pitchers retired the last 20 hitters of the game, and the offense was able to scratch out one run for the win. In the post-game interview, Adam Jones said he and Nick Markakis don't remember the last time the O's won 1-0, and I have to agree. (It was 2007 apparently.) Great win for the Birds, and for Hill after his struggles last time out.
________________________________________________

Read more ...

Hope He Didn't Unpack

Just about a week since arriving in Chicago, Garrett Olson is one the move again. He was packaged with short-stop Ronny Cedeno in a deal for right-handed pitcher Aaron Heilman, who himself was just recently acquired by the Mariners from the Mets in the JJ Putz deal.

The Cubs basically traded Felix Pie and Cedeno for Heilman and his increasing tRAs (2.12 in 2005, to 3.04 to 4.45 to 5.80 last year). That seems like a pretty horrible deal to me, even if Chicago had no use for those two guys.

For the M's this is a great deal. Cedeno should be a capable back-up at short and second for them, and Olson (5.26 tRA last year) is, in my opinion, as good as Heilman already. Seattle plays in a pitcher's park where Olson's fly-ball tendencies will play well; that may give him some confidence to go after hitters more. He was great in his one start there last year for the O's, going eight shut-out innings before giving up three singles in the ninth which Lance Cormier allowed to score.

The assumption all winter was that an Olson-to-Chicago trade was a precursor to the Cubs acquiring Jake Peavy (with Olson and others going to San Diego). Boy did they come up short. Read more ...

Not As Bad As It Used To Be

I like Andy MacPhail and think he's done a pretty good job with the club thus far, but it's frustrating to me that the Orioles are still behind the curve as far as front-office decision making process goes.

* The Mariners have gone from having one of the worst front-offices in baseball to one of the best under new GM Jeff Zduriencik. They're using stats and video analysis and even hired Tom Tango (of The Book fame) as a consultant.

* The Rays - who were already known to have top-flight leadership - signed Pat Burrell to a 2 year, $16 M contract. Very solid deal instantly improves their offense from the DH spot without overpaying (like the Phillies did with Raul Ibanez - seriously, what where they thinking?).

* The A's traded not much they really needed for Matt Holliday and inked Jason Giambi for only $4.5 M (with a 2010 option for $5 M with a $1 M buyout) to improve a dreadful offense and put them into contention with the Angels (and Rangers and Mariners, really).

* The Pirates are thinking outside the box, signing a couple of hard-throwers from India and seeing if they can turn them into pitchers.

* Heck, even Brian Sabean hasn't done anything stupid yet. Signing Randy Johnson to a one-year deal for $8.5 M (or whatever it was) was fantastic for them. San Fransisco's rotation may be enough to make them contenders in the NL West next year.

Now, it's certainly possible that MacPhail has a handle on defensive metrics and aging curves and all that but doesn't talk about it. Maybe the team has invested heavily in scouting and player development without making it widely known. Since I don't know, the only way to make a judgment on that is by the product on the field and the actions of the GM. With so many contracts coming off the books after 2009, MacPhail will have to chance to take the team in any number of directions. I'm not pessimistic yet, but that may change depending on how the rest of the off-season goes. The only big mistake he's made was saying he doesn't sign players before their third year and waiting on Nick Markakis. That probably cost him (the team) at least $20 M. Hopefully he learns from it and locks Adam Jones up early. (I'd say Matt Wieters too, but agent Scott Boras has shown little willingness to accept those kinds of contracts in the past.) Read more ...

Oh Those Poor Fans

The blogosphere was buzzing today due to the continued stupidity from the Seattle Mariners. After asking way too much at the trade deadline and failing to complete a deal to send #4/5 starter (at best) Jarrod Washburn and his $10+ MM salary to the Yankees, the M's got another chance. The Minnisota Twins claimed Washburn on waivers, and then reportedly offered Seattle 26 year-old pitcher Boof Bonser for him. Bonser is younger (and so may get better while Washburn will only got worse), cheaper (he's making the minimum), under team control longer (four more years), and - even ignoring all that - already a better pitcher: a 4.33 tRA for Bonser and a 5.16 tRA for Washburn. As dumb as it is for Minnisota to actually offer anything beyond salary relief (which, in and of itself, isn't the best decision) to Seattle, it's so very many times dumber for Seattle to say no. As a commenter on USSMariner put it:

"If the M’s turned down Bonser, they are dumber than a box of hammers. A box of really, really dumb hammers."

[Edit: It seems that Bonser was never on the table, though Washburn himself reacted in an amusing manner to the rumors. Washburn said: “If that was the case, how much more do you think you’re going to get? A young guy with a great arm who’s cheap.” That's good stuff; it's better player valuation than the M's front-office does. Still, the M's should have just cut the salary - Washburn isn't worth what he'll be paid, and it's pretty easy to find a pitcher to replace him.] Read more ...

One Positive Step At A Time

I know I've been less than kind to the Mariners organization this year - and I did say they'd lose a bunch of games (though not this many) - but I'll give credit where credit is due. In the last week the team has (1) traded an old free-agent reliever for a young pitching prospect, (2) sent Brandon Marrow (who had been used out of the pen) down to the minors to begin his conversion to starting pitcher (finally), (3) moved Miguel Batista (6.80 ERA) to the pen and called up Ryan Rowland-Smith to take his spot in the rotation, (4) released designated "hitter" Jose Vidro (he of the .234/.274/.338 line), and (5) brought slugging OF Wladimir Balentin up. Now if they would just take Raul Ibanez's glove away and make him the DH (with Wlad taking his spot in left) then the team will have improved itself. They still aren't very good, but one has to start somewhere.

While I'm on the M's, I just want to note that Willie Bloomquist has an OBP almost 100 points above his SLG (.382 to .288). He has 44 singles and 1 double on the year. Also, the top two hitters by BA for Seattle are pitcher Felix Hernandez (1.000 with a grand slam in his only at bat) and pitcher Erik Bedard (.500 - two singles in four at bats). The guy with the second best WHIP (behind Marrow's 0.90) is catcher Jamie Burke (1.00 in his one inning of work). At least they're amusing. Read more ...

Seattle Did Something Right

The Mariners finally started their rebuilding (reloading?), while the Marlins, unable to get an impact player (MannyBeingManny, for example), just picked up that lefty reliever they've been after.

Florida got:

Arthur Rhodes, 38 year-old LHRP, 2.86 ERA in 22 IP this year, with 26 K's, 13 BB's and a 1.36 WHIP.

Seattle got:

Gaby Hernandez, 22 year-old RHP, 7.24 ERA in 64.2 IP in Triple-A this year, with 54 K's, 26 BB's, and a 1.86 WHIP before being demoted to Double-A (4.30 ERA, 1.09 WHIP there).

Rhodes has been very effective as a LOOGY, holding lefties to a .195/.327/.244 line this year. Hernandez was hurt part of the year and has struggled, but he's still young and has three quality pitches. The deal is fine for Florida, but I especially like it for Seattle. They have no use for Rhodes, and turned him into a a cheap and potentially effective starter. Good job Mariners? (I'm sorry, but it's hard to say that definitively this season.) Read more ...

Hey, A Record's A Record

So, the Mariners have been giving a fair number of at bats to utility man, Willie Bloomquist this season, despite him not being particularly good at the whole "baseball" thing. WFB, as he is sometimes called by the M's faithful, is hitting a Ruthian 256 / 366 / 256 this year. That's not a typo - his SLG is equal to his BA. Bloomquist doesn't have an extra-base hit this year; in fact, he hasn't had one in 81 straight games now. The other streaks he has going, and the records he's approaching, courtesy of a USSMariner commenter:

"081 - Consecutive games without an XBH
155 - Consecutive at bats without an XBH
177 - Consecutive PAs without an XBH
086 - 2008 season ABs with no XBH
101 - 2008 season PAs with no XBH

Unofficial records:

100 - Consecutive games without an XBH - Greg Gross
223 - Consecutive at bats without an XBH - Jose Valdivielso
266 - Consecutive PAs without an XBH - Larry Lintz
124 - Full season ABs with no XBH - Dwain Anderson
144 - Full season PAs with no XBH - Dwain Anderson"

This streak is made all the more funny because of the way it was kept intact. In the M's 83rd game of the year, Bloomquist came to the plate in the bottom of the ninth with a runner on second and the score tied. He proceeded to hit a ball into the gap (it would have been a sure double), but the runner scored before WFB reached second (thus winning the game) and Willie was only credited with a single. Gotta love those Mariners. Read more ...

Cleaning House

John McLaren is out as M's manager. About time, I think. Richie Sexson and Jose Vidro (and others?) are next up on the block. Maybe they'll fire/release someone every few days for the rest of the season - that may talk some attention away from the Mariners actual play on the field. Read more ...

What A Fearsome Line-Up

Poor guys. I can feel your pain. It didn't stop me from laughing, though. Such moves are so mind-boggling that there is speculation that the M's are actively trying to ensure that they'll get the #1 pick in the 2009 draft so they can select dominating pitcher (he had 23 K's in a game last year but still thought he could have done better) Stephen Strasburg. Read more ...

That "Dumbass" Has A Wicked Curveball

It sounds like Erik Bedard isn't too popular in Seattle. The trade that brought him over was supposed to catapult the Mariners into the playoffs, but instead it just helped get the GM fired. One of the main reasons is Bedard's stamina - he tires after throwing around 100 pitches.

"I asked Bavasi on Monday about Bedard's pitch-count threshold. After bouncing between defending and explaining Bedard, the axed GM — clearly exasperated — said I needed to ask the pitcher.

"You gotta ask him," Bavasi said. "You gotta ask him. Good luck. And he's gonna have some stupid answer, some dumbass answer."

Bavasi went on to marvel over Bedard's talent, to soften the insult, but he made his point. His great acquisition had turned into a great headache.

At least Bedard is no longer his problem. Sometimes, there is an upside to getting fired." - Jerry Brewer, Seattle Times reporter

I actually like the way Bedard deals with the media - I find it very entertaining. The press should be thankful in a way, as his "unfriendliness" gives them about as much to write about as they'd have if he just gave them the usual sports cliches. Read more ...

More Disfunction In Seattle

[Bavasi has received complements from everyone commenting on his firing for his non-GM actions. He was willing to talk kindly with even his harshest critics, and I respect that. Still... horrible General Manager.]

I was looking at a list at all of Bill Bavasi's moves as the M's GM, and a couple struck me as funny:

April 3, 2004
Acquired infielder Jolbert Cabrera from the Los Angeles Dodgers for RHP Aaron Looper and LHP Ryan Ketchner.

April 12, 2004
Acquired RHP Aaron Looper from the Los Angeles Dodgers for LHP Glenn Bott.

He traded a player away, and then traded to get him back a week later. Now none of these guys are (or were) particularly good, but this is not the kind of move a good GM usually makes.

I'm also pretty surprised that manager John McLaren still has a job. He is the one who keeps playing Miguel Cairo at first for some reason that has very little to do with how baseball teams actually win games. Now he's going to move Ichiro - a guy who handles center well and whose bat is an asset there - back to right-field. Ichiro is a good hitter, but his lack of power is not what you want from a corner outfielder. Plus, it's much easier to find a guy who can hit and play right, than a guy who can hit and play center. Willie Bloomquist (who isn't very good, but has still expressed interest in leaving the M's and going to an NL team) takes Ichiro's spot for now.

“I’ve been thinking about it for over a month. It’s nothing against Ichiro in center field, of course. I just think he’s a great right fielder and I want to see his zest and smile and everything going,” McLaren said. “What I remember is just spectacular things and I want to try that. I’m not sure it’s going to work or make any difference whatsoever, but I’m going to try it.”

If by "work", he means the team will start winning games then no, it won't work. Making personnel decisions based on zest and a smile - that's quality baseball.

[I know I've been really hard on Seattle, but it is a multi-million dollar organization run a little worse than a five year-old's lemonade stand. If they admitted that the lemonade wasn't very good (Brian Sabean in San Fransisco is pretty bad too, but at least he didn't say that his team was in a position to make the playoffs) then it would be fine. The problem is, they say it's the delicious, even though it sucks because they have no idea how to make lemonade. Seriously, lemon juice, water, and sugar is too complicated for this team.] Read more ...

AL West Rivals Shed A Tear

Bill Bavasi is fired, and a great cheer erupts from the Pacific North-West. It was well deserved too (despite Bavasi being a pretty good guy from what I've read). This Seattle club was extremely poorly constructed - they saw 88 wins last year and thought that it was the team's true talent level.

Some of the bad moves made by the team (Bavasi) include: signing Carlos Silva (5.79 ERA, first year of 4 year, $48 million deal), Jarrod Washburn (5.83 ERA, third year of 4 year, $37.5 million deal), Miguel Batista (6.18 ERA, second year of 3 year, $25 million deal), Kenji Johjima (.579 OPS, 32 year-old catcher given $24 million extension through 2011); playing Richie Sexson (.675 OPS, making $14 in last year of deal - didn't let another team claim him on waivers last year, which would have freed his salary), Jose Vidro (.600 OPS as the DH - 5 HR this year, 6 last year), Raul Ibanez in the outfield (he hits OK - .758 OPS - but is horrible in left), Miguel Cairo (.529 OPS, mostly at first-base); not playing Jeremy Reed (.339 OBP - second to Ichiro on the team - and a very good defensive outfielder), Jeff Clement (1.137 OPS in AAA this year); and failing to realize that the team didn't have 88 wins worth of talent and trading way too much for Erik Bedard (4.14 ERA).

Now I know that a lot of this stuff is on the manager too, but if the GM thinks that Ibanez should be the DH (or 1B), then he should tell the manager so. That was just some things from 2008 too - there are a whole lot more bad moves made in past years. The Mariners are basically where the Orioles were a couple of years ago - low on talent with a bunch of overpaid veterans. They have an aging Ichiro and King Felix, but that's about it. (The chances of Bedard signing an extension with the team are probably about as low as they were with the Orioles, if not lower.) No OBP, no SLG, and not much pitching when the ballpark is taken into account. They now have a chance to really turn things around by hiring a smart, progressive GM. Whether or not that happens remains to be seen - I'm leaning towards the latter.

And finally, from USSMariner, "Right now, the M’s are on track to win 57 games and pay $118m (rounded!) to do it, for a cost of $13m/marginal win. The next-highest is the Yankees at $5.6m...The average is about $3m." (The Orioles, by the way, are on pace to be pay about $2 million per marginal win. Good job, Andy.) In a similar vein, Tom Tango and David Gassko developed a rough relationship between a team's payroll and expected winning percentage: winning % = (Payroll + 2 * League Average Payroll)/(Payroll + 5 * LAP). The Mariners are an astounding 28 games below where they should be - next worst is Detroit at -14. The Orioles are 5 games better than expected, with the Rays leading the way at plus 22. Lot's of money - bad result. Maybe try another profession, Mr. Bavasi.

[As a side note, I think there is a pretty good chance that the M's try to trade Bedard now. I really can't wait to see what kind of return they get - that is, how much less it is than what they gave up just a few months ago.] Read more ...

The Dreary Pacific North-West

I liked the Junior Griffey, A-Rod, Edgar Martinez Mariners, but I still hope the 2008 version losses a ton of games. They are a major league worst 21-39, and well on their way. The very good USSMariner isn't exactly optimistic about the team's chances to turn things around:

"In the three game series that just ended:

Vladimir Guerrero didn’t have an at-bat
Chone Figgins didn’t have an at-bat
Erick Aybar didn’t have an at-bat
John Lackey didn’t pitch
Kelvim Escobar didn’t pitch

The Angels swept the Mariners in Seattle without their All-Star #1 starter, their All-Star #2 starter, their All-Star right fielder, their starting third baseman, and their starting shortstop.

If you took Felix, Bedard, Ichiro, Beltre, and Betancourt off this team and sent them to go play another major league franchise, they’d lose 104-3. The Angels just played a series without their equivalents to those five guys and swept the Mariners at home.

If you need more evidence that the people who put this team together deserve to be fired, you don’t deserve to be making that decision."

Wow. If the O's lost Guthire, Cabrera, Markakis, Roberts, and let's say Mora, then they wouldn't be able to beat anybody. That such a team could could sweep the Mariners is pretty sad. Read more ...

Good Job Seattle, Thanks

The Seattle Mariners really are one of the worse run organizations in baseball. That's one of the reasons I was confident in predicting they'd win less than 85 wins this year. In a pretty shocking move, the M's have extended catcher Kenji Johjima's contract through 2011, despite having power hitting catching prospect Jeff Clement tearing it up in AAA. Clement's defense might leave a bit to be desired, but the trade-off to get his bat in the line-up at a premier position should be worth it. I had assumed that Johjima was keeping the catcher position warm until Clement was ready, and I think he's pretty much ready. Seattle could really use his bat in the line-up right now, but he may just end up being a trade-chip for them at the deadline. Maybe they'd like to take Jay Payton off the O's hands - he's a veteran righty pull hitter with a lack of patience at the plate. I'd even include Steve Trachsel and Aubrey Huff, if they threw in Carlos Truinfel. Come on, he's like 3 years away from the majors and you're trying to contend now.

Here's a good breakdown of the deal, at fangraphs by the guy who runs the ussmariner blog.

"When you look at the following graph, what is your initial reaction?



Now, take that reaction and add the following information:

1. Catcher
2. Turns 32 years old in two weeks
3. Right handed pull hitter, your team plays in a park that hates right handed pull hitters

Okay, now, let’s go through the formula. If you take Initial Reaction + Position Knowledge + Age + Park Suitability and your conclusion is Contract Extension, congratulations, you’re qualified to work for the Mariners. They just extended Kenji Johjima through the 2011 season. Johjima’s a solid player and has been a real asset since arriving from Japan, but the timing of this move seems odd. Top prospect Jeff Clement is tearing the cover off the ball in Tacoma, and while his defense is underwhelming, the team could really use a left handed bat in the line-up. Extending Johjima ensures that Clement will be moving to first base or designated hitter, reducing his value to the club and taking away the chance to balance the line-up.

The Mariners just continue to fail to learn lessons from their past mistakes. The organization consistently gives overly long contracts to replaceable declining veterans, then gets surprised when those guys don’t perform at their career averages. I’m sure they’ll be stunned in several years when Carlos Silva and Johjima are struggling and eating up a good portion of the payroll along with premium roster spots."

Thanks Seattle for giving me confidence that I made the right call. Read more ...

O's-M's, What A Come-Back

Brian lines one right to a drawn in Beltre for the first out of the game. Melvin Mora walks on four pitches, and Nick Markakis lines a pitch up the middle. It goes off Washburn (kick-save, and a beauty) and Beltre tries to bare-hand the deflection. He can't, it goes under his glove, and Mora scampers to third. Nick extends his AL lead in OBP, and runners are on the corners for Millar. 3-1 count and Millar swings for the fences, and misses the high fastball. Then he strikes out and Markakis is easily gunned down trying to steal second. Just like that Washburn is out of trouble and the inning is over.

Ichiro walks, but then gets picked off by Loewen. He's behind Lopez 0-2 though. Jose ends up flying out to center. Ibanez runs the count full, but takes a called third strike to end the inning.

Huff grounds one up the middle, and Betancourt makes a nice play ranging to his left to make the play. Jay Payton (in for Scott since there's a lefty on the mound) pops out to second, and Ramon flies to right.

Beltre works the count full, and homers into left field, 1-0 M's. Loewen gets ahead of Vidro 0-2 and gets him to ground weakly to third. Sexson follows suit, and then so does Johjima, as Mora has a busy inning.

Adam Jones gets ahead 2-1 and drives one deep to right center for a double. I'm mentioning counts more because with some of the O's pitchers (Cabrera, Loewen) and hitters (Jones) it is something that is very important for their progress. Fahey squares to bunt, and after taking the second pitch Johjima tries to pick Jones off at second. The throw hits him, allowing Jones to go to third. Fahey now has his a chance to pick up his second RBI if he can hit the ball with any authority. He gets it into the air, but it only goes about 200 feet to left and Jones can't score. He's probably a worse hitter than a number of pitchers. Brian Roberts walks on five pitches. Mora can't get the runner in from third as he pops out. It'll take a two-out hit from Markakis now. Good job by Kakes to not try to do too much and take the walk. Millar can't get it down as he pops out himself. That's the second jam Washburn has gotten out of without any damage.

Bloomquist send the ball into the left-center gap, but Payton gets there quickly and is able to keep Willie to a single. Betancourt hits it through the hole on the right side and Bloomquist heads to third with no outs. Ichiro then draws a walk to load the bases. Can Loewen escape pull a Houdini himself? Nope - Lopez hits a sac fly to right, 2-0 M's. Ibanez then hits a sac fly to Jones in center, 3-0. Seattle gets guys on and brings them in; Baltimore gets guys on and leaves them their. God, where's the clutch hitting? Beltre walks on four pitches, and Loewen looks like he won't be lasting long today. The runners get huge jumps and pull off a double steal. Two in scoring position now. Score they do as Vidro hits one over Jones' head in center, and it bounces over the wall for a ground-rule double. "Vidro... underrated" says Gary Thorne. Well Gary, Vidro is rated highly enough that the M's didn't sign Frank Thomas to hit 20 more home runs than him. I'd say overrated, or rated just about right at best. That's it for Loewen, as Randor is coming in. Adam's line (2.2 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 3 BB, 1 K, 60 pitches with only 33 for strikes) is not good. He's still learning, but it isn't going well. It'll take a big comeback for the O's to win this series. Bierd gets Sexson to ground out to short to finally end the inning. 5-0 Mariners.

Huff flies out to center on the first pitch of the fourth. Jay Payton gets the O's on the board with a solo home run to left. One down, four+ to go. Ramon Hernandez pops out. Adam Jones grounds to short, but Betancourt couldn't handle the ball and Jones is on via error. Time to take advantage... Brandon Fahey. Man, where's Alex Cintron? (Man, I'm hoping for Alex Cintron - that makes me doubly depressed.) Fahey launches it... into short left-center for a single. Washburn is able to get Roberts swinging to (again) end the scoring threat.

Very nice play by Fahey to back-hand a ball on the outfield grass in the hole at short and fire to first to beat the slow-footed Johjima. Randor shows some good reflexes, spearing a come-backer and throwing Bloomquist out at first. Betancourt grounds to the left side, and Mora makes a diving stop and throws him out at first. Mora is one of those guys whose defense isn't as good as it seems, because of all the nice looking plays he makes. Bierd still hasn't given up a run this year - hopefully the O's can put an 8 spot on the board and get him a win.

Mora works the count full and singles threw the hole into left field. If he had homered, Throne would have mentioned his defensive play that ended the previous inning - it's standard commentator stuff. Nick Markakis works the count to 3-1 and lines a single up the middle, that goes off of Lopez's glove. (See what happens when the batter gets ahead in the count?) Maybe they can actually get a hit with runners in scoring position this time. Nope. Double play from Millar. The runner scores to make it 5-2. but now there are none on with two outs. Huff grounds out, and yet another threat is over with minimal damage. The score should be 5-5, 5-4 at least, but the O's are hitting horribly in the important situations today.

Ichiro grounds to second, and Bierd has continued his impressive work from the pen. How badly do you think Detroit wishes they still had him right now? Lopez grounds to second. I said previously that Randor could be an improved version of Todd Williams (come in when they need a ground ball, or to bridge from the starter to the back-end of the pen), and he's looking like it so far. He gets a pitch up to Ibanez, who hits it deep off the wall in left-center for a double. That's it for Bierd, as Matt Albers is coming in. Good job by Randor to keep the M's off the board - hopefully Albers doesn't allow his runner to score. Albers proceedes to walk Beltre on five pitches, and Vidro is coming up with a chance to expand the M's lead. "Ever dangerous...Vidro" - Jim Palmer. Yeah. Ever dangerous to the tune of a 200 / 264 / 300 year. He grounds to second to end the inning, and Bierd is unscathed again. Time for some offense. What can the O's do next? Get five hits and still not score? Homer but forget to touch a base? The runs have to start coming in eventually.

Washburn is out and Roy Corcoran is in. Payton grounds the ball up the middle, and Jose Lopez backs a great play to back-hand it jump, spin and throw. Payton looked out, but was called safe. Another baserunner to be left stranded? Ramon chops one high in the air, but Beltre has plenty of time to throw him out at first. Come on Adam Jones - make them feel bad for trading you. Payton gets a big lead and steals third. A good throw would have gotten him, but it was off-line. Now Jones doesn't even need a hit to bring in a run. He gets behind 1-2, though. Adam hits a slow dribbler to third, and even a very good bare-handed play by Beltre isn't enough to beat the speedy Jones. Payton scores, but the terrible (baseball player, not person) Brandon Fahey hits the first pitch back to the mound for a double play. Another potential rally squashed. If they keep getting 2-3 runners on an inning then maybe they can come back to tie if the pen keeps Seattle at 5 runs.

Albers gets ahead of Sexson 1-2 and makes him look silly on a curveball. Trivia Question - Last O's third baseman to win a Gold Glove? Brooks Robinson. The trivia question on the MLB.com game-cast was much harder. A pop-up to Fahey and a grounder to Roberts ends the inning. The O's are only down by 2 and have a couple innings to go. (I'm not counting the ninth, since I assume Putz would shut them down again.)

Arthur Rhodes coming in to face Roberts, Mora, and Markakis. Roberts works the count full and lines a single to left. Brian isn't hitting that well, but he is still having quality at bats. Mora then singles up the middle. Markakis is coming up in a big situation. Last time he walked to load the bases and Millar couldn't get the run in. Will he be swinging early this time? He's been on base all three times today. Guess he's not changing his game as he gets ahead 2-0. Another game-winning home run? Another pitch misses, and another walk would put him in sole possession of first place in that category in the AL. And that's exactly what happens. That will load the bases for Millar. Nick walked 61 times all of last year, and he already is up to 19 through 22 games this year. He may finally be turning into that 300 / 400 / 500 type hitter that I was hoping for. That's Bobby Abreu (first guy I thought of - good thing too as he's a career 300 / 407 / 500 hitter), except with plus defense, and at an earlier age. Mark Lowe is coming in for Rhodes, and he falls behind 3-1. Millar swings at the pitch and flies it deep to left. Roberts scores to make it 5-4, but Mora can't advance to third. It'll take an actual hit to tie the game. Lowe has thrown Huff three straight change-ups to get ahead 1-2. The O's may lose this game, but they have really battled back here. Not for now though, as Huff lines the ball into center and Mora comes in to score ahead of Ichiro's throw. That ties the score at 5-5, and Jay Payton is up with Nick in scoring position. Jay is 2-3 with a HR, and so I'm not going to say that Luke Scott should be pinch hitting. Loewen pitches poorly again, but is taken off the hook. The O's pen doesn't have a "Putz" (ha ha) but it is the deeper of the two. Payton flies out to deep center and Kakes goes to third. A wild pitch would give the O's a lead now. Maybe Ramon can get out of his slump. Well, not by swinging at a first pitch in the dirt. Ramon works the count full, and takes a pitch in the dirt for ball four. Bases loaded - two outs - tie game - Adam Jones coming to the plate. A grand-slam here automatically wins the Bedard trade for the O's. He tried for it, but is out in front of the change-up. And a second time, as Jones is behind 0-2. After fouling off a couple pitches, Jones hits it high; he hits it deep; he hits it just off the top of the wall in left (oh, soooo close!). That'll score a pair, and the O's are up 7-5. It is a bit preemptive, but I'm going to listen to "Orioles Magic" now. Sean Green is coming in, and Luke Scott is hitting for Fahey. Green is way better against righties, so Scott can put a good swing on it here. He does, but the hard grounder is knocked down by Sexson at first and the inning is over. Still, big inning for the Birds. That's what happens when you keep getting guys on base - some of them have to score. That's how the A's are scoring runs despite being out-homered by Chase Utley.

O-R-I-O-L-E-S, Magic, Magic, Magic, Magic... Orioles Magic, Feel It Happen!

Back to the game. Albers stays in for the seventh. If he can get through it, that allows Trembley to mix-and-match Walker and Bradford in the eighth, as he seems to like doing. Betancourt starts the inning with a single to left however. Never mind about Albers going though the inning, as Walker is coming in to face Ichiro. Remember Jamie, he isn't Carlos Pena. Dammit Jamie, not Carlos Pena. And just like that the lead is gone as Ichiro hits a two run home run. 7-7. Just don't lose it now. I guess that's what I get for the preemptive "Orioles Magic" listen. Lopez single past a diving Pelican up the middle. Still no outs in the inning. Now there are two, as Ibanez grounds to Walker who starts the double play. That's it for Walker, as Chad Bradford is coming in to face Beltre. An 0-1 change-up on the outside corner at 66 has Adrian way out in front. And another gets him swinging. To the eighth we go in a tie game.

Sean Green does much worse against lefties (.918 vs. .730 OPS last year), so I wouldn't leave him out there to face the top of the O's line-up. See... Brain Roberts (hitting left-handed) homers to right and that gives the O's the lead right back, 8-7. He gets one "Magic" for that. Mora grounds out sharply to second. Markakis works the count full, and hits a high fly ball to deep center field. Ichiro makes the catch on the warning track just in front of the 405 ft. marker. Millar gets a pitch away and hooks it to the shortstop for an easy third out. If he goes the other way maybe he gets a hit there. In any case, the O's have retaken the lead, and Chad Bradford will try to not give up three seeing-eye singles to give it back.

Jose Vidro hits one extremely high to right, but Nick is there near the track to make the catch. Brandon Morrow is warming in the M's pen, even though he should have been in for the top of the eighth. Sexson gets jammed a bit and flies out to right. Johjima hits one to right, but Nick is able to keep him to a single. Miguel Cairo is pinch running for the slow catcher. Bloomquist grounds the first pitch to third though, and the O's will have a lead going into the ninth.

Morrow comes in an inning late to face Aubrey Huff. Huff runs the count full but lines out to center. Payton gets blown away on three fastballs at 96, 97, and 98. Then he breaks off a wicked slider to Ramon at the knees. Hernandez flies out to right on the next pitch, and it is once again George Sherrill time. He only has a one run lead today, so he need to be a bit more careful.

Betancourt gets jammed, but is able to bloop a single into short center. Oh man, very quick turn of the double play: Roberts to Hernandez to Millar. That erases the baserunner and there are now two outs. Lopez hits a ground ball to short - the Pelican makes the throw and the game is over. Save number eight for Sherrill, and the O's take it 8-7. The Birds also win both the three game set, as well as the season series versus the Mariners. Baltimore improves to 13-9, while Seattle drops to 11-12.

Magic, Magic, Magic Magic... Read more ...

O's-M's, D-Cab In Control

The O's have lost two in a row, and the team would like Daniel Cabrera to keep progressing and be the stopper. He's facing a guy in Carlos Silva who has much worse stuff, but far better control.

Brian Roberts takes three pitches and is out on strikes - the third one was well outside though. Melvin Mora bloops one just over the second baseman for a hit. Markakis gets called out on strikes, an a pitch that starts inside and tails back to almost be a strike. Millar grounds to short to end the inning.

Ichiro starts things off for the M's with a line drive single to right. Ichiro then steals second, as the Pelican can't hold on to Ramon's throw (he might have been out otherwise). Jose Lopez grounds to Millar, and Daniel does a nice job covering first base (well, not a nice job, but he actually does his job, which is improvement). Raul Ibanez hits a long fly ball to center, to bring Ichiro in from third. 1-0 M's.

Silva is throwing strikes, so Luke comes out swinging. He ends up flying out to center. Aubrey Huff draws one of the few walks Silva will give up. A fly out and a ground out end the inning.

Daniel gets ahead of Vidro 1-2, and runs that "Maddux" fastball at 96 over the inside corner. Sexson grounds to the Pelican on the outfield grass, and Millar picks the throw out of the dirt to get the out. Johjima pops out the third pitch, and that's a very quick 1-2-3 inning.

[What player hit a HR in his first ML at bat in 1952, but never hit another one and went into the Hall of Fame in 1985? I knew it was a pitcher, but I'm not familiar enough with pitchers from back then to know the answer. The commentator gave the clue "think RA Dickey" (the M's knuckleballer) so I guessed Hoyt Wilhelm, which is the correct answer. Interesting question.]

The O's go down in order in the top of the third, as Carlos Silva is rolling along.

Another three-up three-down inning for Daniel. He's thrown just 26 pitches so far - 24 fastballs (93-97, but mostly 95-96) a slider and a change-up. Both non-fastballs came in the third, and were in the zone (though one is flied out and one is called a ball).

Nick Markakis takes a pitch outside, but is still called out on strikes (again). Kakes is upset and has a few words for the umpire. That's not something you often see, but Nick knows that those pitches are balls, even if the umpire doesn't. Millar grounds out, and Luke is called out on a pitch inside. Huge strike-zone tonight, but Daniel isn't really taking advantage of it - he's pounding the true strike-zone.

Daniel can't catch break - he throws a fastball right in the zone and it's called a ball, while Silva is getting pitches a foot outside. Jose Lopez battles for eight pitches (all fastballs) and singles to right. I would have called a slider or change at some point in the at bat (like one of the last couple pitches), because Lopez was timing the fastball at that point. Five more fastballs and Ibanez singles to center. A change-up in the 1-2 count might have been a good idea. Daniel starts the next hitter off with a couple sliders, one for a ball and the next for a strike. Why throw them at this point? He almost gets Beltre on strikes, but his fastball just off the outside corner (which Silva would get) is called a ball. Beltre then bloops a single to left that Luke just can't get to. Vidro grounds a slider sharply to first. Millar makes a sliding stop and throws the runner out at second - they can't get the double play and a run scores to make it 2-0. Sexson lines the first pitch at Mora - two down. Johjima falls behind 0-2 and grounds far to Brian's left. B-Rob ranges over and makes a good throws from the outfield grass to end the inning. Fantastic job by Daniel to get out of the jame with only one run scoring.

Aubrey Huff lines the first pitch up the middle for a single. Nice job by Adam Jones, falling behind 0-2 but taking an outside pitch and singling into right field. Ramon hits one to deep left, off of the wall. Huff didn't know if it would be caught and got a late break - he ran through the stop-sign and got thrown out at home. That's a 350 foot single for Ramon, and there are still 2 on but with 1 out now. The Pelican grounds into a double play to end the inning. The O's threaten, but can not score and it's still 2-0 M's.

Daniel finally gets the benefit of the wide zone as Beltre is called out on a fastball off the outside corner. He gets ahead of Betancourt 0-2, but a fastball up and over the plate and Yuniesky doubles down the line in right. Ichiro grounds out, advancing the runner to third. A ground out to Mora ends the inning.

Brian Roberts serves a single into left to get things started in the sixth. Melvin drives one deep to right, and nobody will get there. The triple scores Roberts and that makes it 2-1. Kakes grounds to second, but that scores Mora to tie the game. Millar flies out to left, and Luke grounds to first to end the inning.

Daniel gets ahead of Ibanez 1-2 and throws a 96 mph fastball by him. That's the first K of the game that wasn't looking. Beltre pops out on a 98 mph fastball, and Vidro bounces out on the first pitch (good play by Roberts to get him by a half-step). Another 1-2-3 inning for Cabrera.

Aubrey Huff draws his second walk of the day. Looks like Silva is hurt, as he's being removed from the game. Sean Green comes in and strikes out Adam Jones. Then Ramon Hernandez goes down on three pitches. The Pelican doesn't swing and draws a walk. Brian has a great at bat, but grounds the 12th pitch down the first base line, where Green picks it up and tags him.

Sexson falls behind 1-2 and can't hold his swing on a slider in the dirt. Now that's how you do it. Daniel gets ahead of Johjima and gets him to chase a slider in the dirt. I'm glad he (or Ramon) is finally listening to me. See how easy that was? Bloomquist flies the first pitch to right, and it's yet another easy inning for Daniel.

Mora grounds out to third, and gets thrown out by a step. The M's are bringing in the lefty to face Markakis. And that was a mistake. Nick Markakis turns on the first pitch, and lines it into the right field stands. That's his 4th of the year, and gives the O's a 3-2 lead. Nick's hitting 310 / 449 / 521 for the year, and he usually doesn't start hitting well until the second half. Is he going to hit 350 / 500 / 700 in August (career 1.027 OPS compared to .836 overall)? I'm excited - I predicted 25 HR, while most people saw a drop in power (which makes sense given his expected numbers from last year). Anyway, Millar grounds out and Luke strikes out to end the inning.

Daniel gets ahead of Betancourt 0-2 (I've been saying 0-2, 1-2 a lot) and he flies out softly to right. He's still throwing 96-96, which is very impressive. Ichiro gets ahead 3-1 but pops out to short. Jose Lopez flies out left and Daniel is mowing down the Mariners hitters.

Huff grounds out to short to start the ninth. Brandon Morrow comes in and just blows the fastball by Adam Jones. That's Jones' second K of the game. Ramon grounds to the left side, and Adrian Beltre makes a great play to get it and throw him out.

It's George Sherrill time in the bottom of the ninth. Ibanez singles past a diving Roberts into center field. Beltre hits it hard, but Jay Payton (in for Luke Scott) makes the catch in left. Vidro strikes out swinging at a good breaking-ball; two outs. And Richie Sexson pops the first pitch up - Millar is there and makes the catch. The O's win 3-2, and Sherrill picks up his 7th save.

The Player of the Game is definitely Daniel Cabrera. It took just 95 pitches (65 strikes) to go 8 innings, giving up 2 runs on 5 hits and no walks, and striking out 5. He has dropped his walk total in every game this year, and I think he really has a chance to have a solid year.

Adam Loewen will face Jarrod Washburn in the rubber-game of the three-game set tomorrow. The O's can guarantee a win in the season series versus the M's with a victory. Read more ...

O's-M's, That's Why You Don't Put Runners On

The game in Seattle starts a string of 17 out of 20 games being on the road. If they can come back after these 20 at .500 then I will be very pleased.

Jeremy Guthrie, looking for his first win, will face Felix Hernandez. Hopefully the O's can get to him this time.

After four fastballs from 94 to 98, Brian Roberts gets a curveball and serves it into center to start the game with a single. And they're talking about Brian Robert's "disruption factor" again. Oh well. Mora gets his bat broken on a 95 mph fastball in on his hands - he grounds weakly to third. Kakes up with Roberts in scoring position.

Approximate Gary Throrne quote: "It's truly amazing the impact the baserunner has on the game." It is amazing - I thought it would be a big difference, but it really, really isn't. It's also amazing how much people talk about it.

Markakis walks (again) to bring Kevin Millar up. Millar bloops one over second to score Brian and send Nick to third. The O's haven't hit a single ball hard at all, yet they have three baserunners and a 1-0 lead. Awww, Felix pulls a Maddux and starts that fastball inside to Luke Scott and has it run back over the inside corner...at 96 mph. Yeah, this kid is gonna be good. What the hell is that?!? Millar gets picked off at first - he gets into a rundown - Kakes takes off for home - the throw goes home - Nick goes back to third - the throw from home to third gets him - the third baseman drops the ball - Nick is safe at third (but is still counted as "caught stealing") - Millar takes second. That's some crazy stuff. It all is for naught as Huff takes a called third strike on the inside corner himself.

Ichiro starts the M's half of the first with a triple over the jumping Nick Markakis in right. Jose Lopez lines out softly to his counterpart at second. Raul Ibanez grounds to Roberts, and Ichiro comes in to score to tie the game. Guthrie falls behind Beltre 3-0, but gets him to fly out to right.

[The guy who played Socrates Poole (from The Adventures of Brisco County Jr., staring Bruce Campbell) is on abc. Looking it up... the show is Boston Legal. Campbell beats Shatner by a little, and campy Wild West beats Boston law firm drama by a lot. So just go check out Brisco, Soc, Lord Bowler, Dixie Cousins, and Comet the wonder-horse.]

Adam Jones shows his quick bat pulling a couple hard fastballs foul, but flies out to right. Ramon Hernandez doubles to left field, and the Pelican moves him to third with a ground out to second. Now that he's stopped hitting (at all) he needs to play some flawless defense to keep his job (which he hasn't been doing). Brian Roberts works a walk and steals second without a throw. Two on with two out and a 2-0 count for Mora. Melvin walks to load the bases, but Markakis is the third lefty to take the tailing fastball for strike three.

Jose Vidro grounds sharply to Millar at first, with Guthrie covering. Richie Sexson ground slowly to third, and Mora does a nice job to recognize that he has plenty of time and doesn't rush his throw. Then he blows Brad Wilkerson away with a high fastball. 1-2-3 inning for Jeremy - he's thrown 23 pitches to Felix's 52. Way to work the count against him this time guys.

A couple of ground outs to the right side by Millar and Scott gives Hernandez two quick outs. Huff strikes out on another pitch inside - this time swinging at a slider down and in. That's 4 K's for Felix, and he is really handling the lefties in the line-up. If I'm a lefty with two strikes, I'm looking inside. Maybe Luke wrote that down in his notebook.

Kenji Johjima works a lead-off walk to start the third for the M's, but Guthrie comes back to strike out Betancourt. Ichiro grounds to Roberts to force the runner at second. With Suzuki on first, Palmer and Thorne are talking about him stealing 80 bases (like his manager suggested he could). Good thing Ichiro himself understands the importance of not getting caught, and is unwilling to run with reckless abandon. Jose Lopez singles up the middle to bring up Seattle's best hitter so far, Raul Ibanez. Ibanez flies out to Jones in center to end the scoring threat.

[Spoon's "My Mathematical Mind" is playing in the background of and Accura commercial. Spoon is an incredibly solid band - none of there albums are among, say, my 30 favorites, but all 5 are very, very good. Hard to finds a band that doesn't have a miss-step in their main catalog.]

Adam Jones showing that quick bat again, pulling a 95 mph fastball sharply into left field - on an 0-2 pitch no less. Unfortunately Jones starts leaning toward second and gets picked off. When you play a rookie (or almost rookie) then you need to expect some rookie (or almost rookie) mistakes. Ramon flies out to center, and there are two down. I'm calling a Pelican home run here. (If I'm right I look like a genius; if I'm wrong then nobody will remember, except that I just brought your attention to it.) Well, he hit it in the air about 330-340 feet. That counts as a HR on the Pelican scale.

Adrian Beltre is out in-front of a change-up as he strikes out on three pitches. Vidro hits one hard, but Markakis is there and makes the catch. Richie Sexson hits it hard to center, but Jones tracks back and makes the grab to end the inning. Sexson is probably telling himself "three years ago that would have gone out." 52 pitches for Guthrie to 72 by Felix, through four.

B-Rob flies out to start the fifth. Mora lines one to center for his first hit of the game. Markakis really has trouble catching up to a good fastball. And he strikes out again - swinging. Then Millar goes down swinging. That's six K's for Felix, and the game is still 1-1.

Willie Bloomquist - in there for Wilkerson - grounds out to second. Johjima follows at up with a single to right-center. Then Betancourt walks to put two on for Ichiro. Jim Palmer is amazed that Ichiro is only 1-11 with runners in scoring position, because he usually hits for a higher average in those situations - no idea about sample size. Ichiro checks his swing, and taps the ball to Guthrie's right. Mora was charging in on the ball, so Guthrie grabs it and races to third to force Johjima - he beats him by a hair. On the next pitch, Ramon tries to pick Ichiro off at first, but ends up throwing the ball into right field. Betancourt runs through a stop-sign at third, but scores anyway to give Seattle a 2-1 lead. Lopez grounds to short to end the inning. Poor Jeremy - it looks like another quality start may not result in a win.

Luke Scott falls behind 1-2 and grounds out to second. The O's bats haven't had much going lately. Aubrey Huff also falls behind 1-2, and he gets another slider down and in and launches it out to right-center. That's Huff's third HR, and it ties the game at 2-2. Adam Jones pops out to short. Ramon Hernandez grounds to Betancourt to end the inning, but Guthrie is off the hook for now. Felix is up to 100 pitches now, so the offense may get a few innings to knock around the M's pen, though closer JJ Putz is back from the DL.

Ibanez goes down swinging on a high change-up. Beltre checks his swing on a ball in the dirt, and immediately points to the first base umpire for an appeal. The home plate ump does so, the the man at first says he went around. Thorne and Palmer comment that they've never seen a player do that before. I have on a number of occasions, though I don't remember any specific hitter who did it. Beltre ends up flying out to right. And another Orioles Trivia Question bites the dust. What AL player has won 2 All-Star game MVPs? That would be Cal Ripken Jr. I guessed Cal, because it was an O's question, so it was either an Orioles or a Mariner. Also, Cal went so often, and I figured he won one later in his career when he didn't really deserve it.

The Pelican pops out, as Felix is out there for the seventh. Former Oriole Arthur Rhodes is warming up in the M's pen. Brian Roberts becomes Hernandez's seventh strike-out victim. Mora hits it hard again, but this time Ichiro is there to make the catch.

Richie Sexson waves at a slider to start the inning with a K. Bloomquist hits one down the first base line, but Kevin Millar makes the diving stop and races to first to get the out. Guthrie gets ahead of Johjima 0-2 and drops down with a fastball out of the zone. I don't know if that change in arm angle was intentional or not. He ends up getting the batter to ground out to second. Guthrie is up near 100 pitches - he's still throwing 93-95, but he threw only 3 fastballs in that inning. There were also 3 change-ups and 6 breaking-balls.

Rhodes is coming in to face Markakis - I don't know if he's happy to see Felix out of there with Arthur in. Apparently yes, as he singles to left field. Markakis takes off, and Millar lines out to short - that's an easy double play. Rhodes then gets Luke Scott swinging to end the inning.

Guthrie is out for the eighth, and Betancourt greats him with a double. Ichiro is up, and he may be bunting. He does try it, but fouls the pitch off. Then he doesn't bunt, and pops out to Ramon Hernandez in foul territory. Lopez lines one hard to center, and Jones makes then catch. Adam then unloads a rocket to the cut-off man to keep the runner at second. Raul Ibanez is going to be intentionally walked to set up the righty-righty match-up. Why not just throw him a couple pitches out of the zone first to see if he'll chase? If not, then walk him. Guthrie falls behind Beltre 3-1, and that's why the intentional walk can be dangerous. The walk loads the bases for Jose Vidro. Man am I glad the M's don't have Frank Thomas or Barry Bonds at DH instead. Guthrie is getting the chance to get himself out of this, and he falls behind Vidro 1-0. Vidro singles to right, and two runs score to make it 4-2. Would they have scored if Ibanez hadn't been walked? Maybe, but they put themselves in a position to give up multiple runs by putting the runner on. Now Sarfate is coming in, but it may be a batter too late. Sarfate strikes Sexson out on a 98 mph fastball to end the rally.

It's JJ Putz time in the ninth. Maybe he'll be rusty from his DL stay. Huff starts things off well with a double. Let's keep it going guys. Adam Jones up as the tying run. Putz sets him down swinging at a fastball up and out of the zone - one out. Ramon Hernandez up with a chance to make up for his error. Nope. He strikes out on three pitches - the third a splitter in the dirt. It's up to the Pelican. Just kidding, it's Jay Payton pinch hitting. Still no lefties on the bench. Every time I say that he gets a hit. You suck Jay Payton - you totally can't hit a home run here. 0-2 to Payton... and he fouls off a pitch at shoulder level. Splitter in the dirt? Yes, but Hay doesn't swing. Then he does, and grounds out to short. They can' even bring Huff in, and the O's lose 4-2. This is a game they should have had - Guthrie pitched well but was left in too long and the O's couldn't take advantage of their opportunities. Also, that pointless error by Ramon really hurt. The Orioles move to 11-9, while the M's are over .500 at 11-10. Read more ...