O's-Rays, Big Day For Mr. Jones

Rich Hill pitched six shutout innings in Triple-A a couple days ago, with 7 K's, 2 hits and 3 walks. That's pretty encouraging, and Hill may be up to the big club very soon - possibly even for his next start.

In completely unrelated news, Mark Hendrickson brings his 5.13 ERA and awful 6.81 tRA (which is worst in the starting rotation and almost a full 1.5 runs worse than Adam Eaton's still bad 5.37 mark - which is, incidentally, the second best tRA in the rotation, after Koji's 3.60) to the mound for Baltimore as they host Andy Sonnastine and the Tampa Bay Rays.

With the injury to Dennis Sarfate, the best course of action to me seems to be Bob McCrory or Brian Bass demoted to the minors with Hendrickson moving to his originally anticipated role as swing-man and Hill taking his spot in the rotation.

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Top 1:

• BJ Upton hits a long flyball to left, but Felix Pie is able to make a running catch at the track.
  
• Nice job by Adam Jones to cut off a Carl Crawford hits into the right-center gap, but it's not enough to keep him from getting into second with a double.
• Evan Longoria flies out to pretty deep center-field.
• Carlos Pena grounds to Brian Roberts, who's camped out in short right-field as part of that elaborate shift.

Bottom 1:

• Roberts starts the O's first with a groundout to first.
• Adam Jones goes out and hooks a breaking-ball, sending into the stands in left for his team leading seventh HR of the year.
• Nick Markakis flies out to short left-field.
• Aubrey Huff strikes out looking on a 3-2 fastball that paints the black on the outside corner.
  

Top 2:

• Willy Aybar inside-outs a pitch into right-field for a lead-off single.
• Ben Zobrist flies out to center.
• Jason Bartlett pulls a double down the third-base line.
• Gabe Kapler flies out to deep left, bringing in the runner from third.
• Dionar Navarro lines a single to center to give the Rays a 2-1 lead.
• Bossman Junior draws a walk.
• Pie dives for a Crawford fliner (flyball/liner) in left but can't come up with it. Two more runs score, and CC has his second double of the day. Brian Bass is already warming up in the pen.
• Longoria with an RBI line-drive single off the scoreboard in right. Hendrickson's not fooling anybody.
• Pena flies out to right to finally end the inning. 5-1, Rays. Yikes.
  

Bottom 2:

• Melvin Mora breaks his bat, but gets enough wood on the ball to drive it into center for a single.
• Luis Montanez - DH'ing with Luke Scott injured - doubles into right-center. Mora comes all the way around to score, cutting the deficit to three.
  
• Gregg Zaun, who's raised his average almost 100 points in his last nine games up to .210 (and a .343 OBP), brings it up further with a single to right. They send Montanez, and he's out by a mile at home.
• Pie falls behind in the count, but is able to work a walk.
• Izturis hits a groundball towards second, but it goes under Zobrist's glove and the bases are loaded for the top of the line-up.
• Roberts hits a pop-up into short center. The ball drops in, but Upton is able to barely get the force at second. Zaun scores though, to make it 5-3.
• Adam Jones is just having a fantastic season. Gets ahead in the count 3-1 and gets an 88 mph fastball right down the middle... and he doesn't miss. The line-drive rockets into the left-field stands for his second home run of the day, and the O's have taken the lead.
• Markakis tries for one of his own, but Kapler makes the catch right in front of the wall.
  

Top 3:

• Bass takes the mound for the O's to start the third.
• Aybar greets him with a single through the right side.
• Zobrist grounds back to Bass, who makes a nice throw to second for the force. Izturis drops the ball getting it out of his glove though, and they can't turn two.
• Bartlett hits a line-drive towards right-field, but Huff makes the leaping catch and steps on first to double off Zobrist.
  

Bottom 3:

• Huff pulls a double into the right-field corner.
• Mora hits a hard groundball towards short. Huff may have blocked off Bartlett's view, because the shortstop couldn't handle it and the ball went into left-field. They actually wave Huff around, and he's able to score with a nice slide.
  
• Montanez lines a single into left-field.
• That'll be the end of the line for Sonnastine, who's given up 9 hits in his two innings of work. Grant Balfour, who's living up to his name with 10 walks in 11.1 IP, is the new pitcher.
  
• Zaun flies out to the track in center, with Mora advancing to third.
• Pie strikes out looking.
• Izturis flies out to center to leave a couple stranded.
  

Top 4:

• Ty Wigginton is going out to play left-field; sounds like Pie has some sort of stomach pain. He went to the hospital, but no word yet as to what's wrong.
  
• Bass sets the Rays down in order.
  

Bottom 4:

• O's go down 1-2-3 themselves. Quiet fourth inning.
  

... Fast forward four innings as nothing of much consequence occurs...

Top 9:

• Geroge Sherrill is in for the save, and gets Crawford to ground out to third.
• Longoria works a walk to bring the potential tying run to the plate.
• Sherrill gets Pena looking with a fastball right down the middle.
• Aybar with a flyball to center, but Jones tracks it down.

Mark Hendrickson was knocked around, but Brian Bass pitched 4 scoreless innings in relief, Danys Baez and Jim Johnson did their set-up thing, and Sherrill pitched a somewhat tense but effective ninth. Adam Jones provided most of the fire-power on offense, hitting a pair of home runs and driving in four. O's win 7-5, and move to just a half game behind the Rays in the standings.
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Hey, The Rays Did Win 97 Games Last Year

Yesterday the bullpen picked the team up after another so-so start by Adam Eaton (5 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 2 K) and the offense put 8 runs on the board - 5 via home runs by Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts. The 8-4 win broke the O's six game losing streak, and put the team in position to sweep the short two-game series today.

Things started out well, too, with Koji Uehara giving up just one unearned run through five innings to go along with 7 K's. Brian Roberts hit a two-run homer for the second game in a row, and Gregg Zaun added a solo shot of his own. Then came the sixth inning. It started with the O's third error of the day, and ended with the score tied at 3-3 after a pair of doubles. Koji was taken out with two outs in the seventh after giving up another run. Jamie Walker came in as a LOOGY to face Carl Crawford, and promptly hit him. Recently brought up Bob McCrory - who took the injured Dennis Sarfate's spot - gave up a two run single, with both credited to Uehara. Not too often will you see a guy not give up a home run, walk just one, strike out eight, and yet lose a game 6-3. The O's didn't put up much offense, with even Nick Markakis being kept off base for the first time this season.

With the split, the Orioles drop to 10-17 on the season. That ties the Cleveland Indians for the worst record in the AL. Got to take the long view folks. Read more ...

O's-Rays, Eaton's K's Provide Only Surprise

Adam Eaton makes his Orioles debut as the Birds go for the sweep of the Rays, with Matt Albers being sent down to Triple-A to make room on the roster for him. Hopefully this game will turn out better than the last time they had such an opportunity, when they lost 11-2 to the Yankees. And their success on Sundays was limited last year as well (.153 winning %, compared to .420 overall and .474 (77 wins in 162 games) for the other days of the week).

Robert Andino gets his first start of the year at short, and Chad Moeller is filling in for ZAUN! in the day game after a night game. They'll be facing off against right-hander James Shields, who brings good control and one of the best change-ups in baseball to the mound for Tampa Bay.

The O's are coming into the game 4-1, in large part because of the great plate discipline shown by the offense. They easily lead the AL in BB% at 12.9 (the Indians are second at 11.4%) and are second in K% at 16.0 (with the Mariners in first at 13.4%). That means that despite only having hit 4 home runs, the team has a .379 wOBA on the strength of a league-leading .397 OBP. The pitching staff has been successful by not walking hitters (3.2 BB/9 - good for fourth) and using their defense (5.0 K/9 is last).

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Top 1:

• Akinori Iwamura starts the Rays attack with a single through the right side of the infield.
• Eaton strikes Carl Crawford out on three pitches, getting him to chase a breaking-ball in the dirt. The bounce got away from Moeller though, allowing Iwamura to get to second.
• Single to center by Evan Longoria, but the runner is held at third with Adam Jones getting to the ball quickly and unloading a strong (if slightly off-line) throw.
• Longoria runs as Carlos Pena swings through a high 3-1 fastball, and makes it to second without a throw. That take away the traditional double play, but it doesn't matter as Eaton is able to get Pena to chase another heater up in the zone for the K.
• After getting ahead with some good breaking-balls, Eaton gets Pat Burrell to line out to Markakis in right on a fastball. Prett good first inning for the O's right-hander
  

Bottom 1:

• Brian Roberts pops out on a 2-0 fastball.
• Adam Jones grounds out on a 2-0 fastball.
• I guess Nick decided to switch things up, because he grounds out on a 0-2 change-up.
  

Top 2:

• Nice curveball gets Dioner Navarro swinging. Eaton has solid breaking-stuff, but his fastball is lacking as a complementary pitch.
  
• Blooper into left-field falls infront of Pie for a single by Ben Zobrist.
• Eaton battles back from a 3-0 count to Gabe Gross, but eventually losses him on a walk.
• Soft liner over the shortstop loads the bases with one out.
• Eaton muscles up and gets Iwamura looking on a 91 mph fastball.
• Flyball by Crawford falls fair down the right-field line. That clears the bases, and Crawford goes into third with a triple.
• Longoria hits a long flyball to right that goes over Nick's glove (he probably should have had it) - the double makes it 4-0.
• Pena pops out to finally end the inning. Eaton didn't pitch that badly, but that doesn't make his ERA feel any better.
  

Bottom 2:

• O's go down in order again.
  

Top 3:

• Pat the Bat misses a slider for strike-out number five.
• Navarro grounds out to second.
• Zobrist swings and misses at a fastball to end the inning. Six K's for Eaton through three.
  

Bottom 3:

• Felix Pie drops a bunt down towards second, with Iwamura charging in and making the play.
• Moeller pops out.
• Andino pulls a groundball through the left side for the O's first hit of the day.
• Roberts pops out to short center-field.
  

Top 4:

• Gross walks for the second time.
• Aubrey Huff makes a nice over-the-shoulder catch in foul territory to retire Bartlett.
• Iwamura singles through the right side to put runners on the corners. That's the seventh Rays' hit.
• Another steal of second once again eliminates teh double play chance (not that they were likely to double up Crawford anyway). Single to center, but Jones fakes out the runner and Gross is late in leaving third. Moeller blocks the plate well and trips Gross, who never actually touches home. Moeller is able to chase Gabe down as he tries to get back to the plate. Huge out there, and they keep the score at 4-0.
• Crawford steals second without a throw, but Eaton is able to get Longoria on a groundout to third.
  

Bottom 4:

• Adam Jones leads off with a double to deap left-center.
• Markakis flies out to deep center, and Jones doesn't react quickly enough to tag up.
• Huff grounds back to the mound.
• Mora grounds out to short. Come on guys, at least get on the board.
  

Top 5:

• Brian Bass in for Eaton, who K'ed six in his four innings, but also gave up 4 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks. Most days eight hits won't fall in when you pitch that well.
• Bass keeps it going, getting Pena swinging to start the fifth.
• Burrell draws a walk.
• Double into right-field by Navarro. With Shields and the Rays bullpen, I'm thinking that anymore runs will likely put the game out of reach.
• Especailly if the batter comes in to score too. Ben Zobrist with a line-drive home run over the scoreboard in right. 7-0 Tampa Bay.
• Gross strikes out looking and a fastball running back over the inside corner.
• Bartlett hits a groundball that Andino fields deep in the hole at short, and beats the throw to first.
• Double into left-center by Iwamura maes it 8-0.

I watched the rest of the game, but it wasn't really worth commenting on . The O's finally put some runs on the board in the ninth on two singles and three walks, but lost 11-3. Just another Sunday in Birdland.
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Pen Makes It Interesting, But O's Hold On

Mark Hendrickson didn't look very good, but he got the job done. Only giving up the one run and putting the team in position to win was big after the loss to New York. The bullpen gave up a couple of home runs (by JJ and Sherrill, respectively) though Baez looked very impressive again, striking out four in 1.2 perfect innings. He may find himself pitching at the end of games at some point this season. The offense continued their patient approach, drawing four walks against a guy in Sonnastine who walked just 1.7 per nine last year. Amazingly, every Oriole reached base for the second time in four games (and 8 of 9 guys did it in another game). The 5-4 win moves the O's record to 3-1, which ties them for first-place in the AL East pending the finish of Toronto's game.

As an aside, Evan Longoria homored twice and is making that contract the Rays gave him (which was decried by many at the time) look smarter by the day.
Read more ...

O's-Rays, 2-1 Lead In The Opening Innings

Coming off a depressing loss at the hands of the Yankees, it's important not to forget that the O's actually took the series - and winning two out of every three games for even a month would be a huge surprise for this team. Another AL East rival, the Tampa Bay Rays, comes to tow fresh off of winning two out of three themselves against Evil Empire II up in Boston. The good news is that the O's start out facing the bottom of the Rays' rotation. The bad news is that the bottom of the Rays' rotation is probably about as good as the top of the O's rotation, and the Birds are countering with Mark Hendrickson (a former Devil Ray).

Top 1:

• Jason Bartlett, batting lead-off, grounds out to Melvin Mora at third.
• Carl Crawford doubles down the right-field line. Too bad for the Rays he tried for a triple. The relay from Markakis to Roberts to Mora was near perfect and they get Crawford easily. Nice play, though Mora did get spiked a little during the slide.
• That move saves a run, as Evan Longoria homers to center-field just over the outstretched glove of a leaping Adam Jones.
  
• Carlos Pena pops out, by the Rays have a 1-0 lead.
  

Bottom 1:

• Control specialist Andy Sonnastine (3.82 tRA last year) starts for the Rays.
• Brian Roberts greets him with a single to center.
• Adam Jones works back from an 0-2 count to get it to 2-2, and then pulls a breaking-ball down the third-base line for a double.
• Nick Markakis grounds up the middle, but Sonnastine was able to snag it and get the out at first without a run scoring.
• The Rays are employing a big shift against Huff, with the shortstop Bartlett almost playing in the usual second-base position. That doesn't really help when you walk the batter though. The bases are loaded for Melvin.
• Mora lines a single up the middle to give the O's a 2-1 lead. It was an 87 mph fastball up in the zone, which isn't going to get a lot of hitters out.
• They put the shift on against Luke Scott too, and this time it works with the shortstop snagging a line-drive to the right of second-base.
• Ryan Freel getting his first start of the year. Short flyball to right ends the inning.
  

Top 2:

• Pat "The Bat" Burrell grounds up the middle just passed a diving Izturis for a single.
• Gabe Kapler might not be seeing Hendrickson well, because he swung and missed at a couple of 86-87 mph fastballs up in the zone, including one for strike three.
• Slower roller by Dioner Navarro to third gets the force at second, but was hit too slowly for the double play.
• Ben Zobrist up. Back when Zobrist was still a little-known shortstop prospect in the Houston Astros system, I wanted the team to trade for him. I remember he put up pretty good OBP numbers, and wouldn't have taken much to acquire. On a similar note, I've been a big fan of fellow Rays' under-the-radar acquisition Gabe Gross for a while. I really wish Tampa Bay was in another division, so I could cheer for them during the regular season more. Anyway, Zobrist lifts a pop-up into short left-center field. Izturis ranges way out there to make the catch, but right before he makes light contact with a charging Adam Jones the ball pops out. Navarro's lack of foot-speed means he has to stop at third.
• Akinori Iwaumra walks to load the bases for the top of the order.
• Hendrickson gets out of it by inducing a bouncer back to the mound off the bat of Bartlett.

Bottom 2:

• ZAUN! leads off the second with a double into the left-field corner. Crawford dove for it, but came up short (though it would have been a two-bagger either way).
• I knew Izturis would try to (stupidly) bunt. After bunting one foul, they let Cesar swing away. He hits a line-drive to right, but Zobrist makes a great diving catch and throws to second to double off Zaun. Even the correct move (letting him hit) and a good middle result (line-drive) can end poorly (double play). It's about the process.
• Roberts walks on four pitches - that's the second free pass allowed by Sonnastine.
• Curveball down for a swinging strike one; fastball up for a swinging strike two; curveball for a called strike three. Andy carves Jones up to end the inning.
  

Top 3:

• High chop by Crawford - luckily it goes to Huff at first who just has to step on the bag for the out. One of those to third might have been an infield hit.
• Longoria is retired this time on a flyball to right.
• Carlos Pena lines out to first.
  

Continuing watching downstairs with my buddy Ian, who's redesigning this blog in the near future. Final thoughts later. Read more ...

The Beast & The Least Of The East

Continuing their off-season series, the BaseballAnalysts went through their AL East Preview by position, using a combination of projections systems.

C:
Navarro, D. - .267/.334/.389
Varitek, J. - .236/.328/.390
Posada, J. - .273/.366/.448
Barajas, R. - .243/.303/.392
Wieters, M. - .298/.382/.499

Matt Wieters has easily the best projection, being tops in BA (by 25 points over second place Jorge Posada), OBP (16 over Posada again), and SLG (51 over Posada, again). Even my .289/.359/.482 line would make him better with the bat than the other catchers (though Posada’s .366 OBP would be tops in that category).

Pete: “I wonder how much we'll see of Matt Wieters. It doesn't make much sense for Baltimore to start his clock yet.”

Sully: “Wieters in the Minors would be an absolute mockery. After he wins the MVP this season, I fully expect him to fix Healthcare and restore economic prosperity in America.”

Idea... Matt Wieters Facts. Thanks, Sully.

Gregg Zaun’s .241/.340/.374 line actually compares pretty favorably to the other non-Posada catchers.

1B:
Pena, C. - .254/.370/.500
Youkilis, K. - .283/.377/.474
Teixeira, M. - .290/.383/.525
Overbay, L. - .265/.343/.419
Huff, A. - .279/.340/.471

At least Huff is a better hitter than Overbay.

2B:
Iwamura, A. - .270/.346/.389
Pedroia, D. - .307/.368/.456
Cano, R. - .292/.331/.450
Hill, A. - .277/.334/.408
Roberts, B. - .282/.359/.424

I’d like to see how Roberts would rank in this group with the bat if Pedroia didn’t play half is games at Fenway.

3B:
Longoria, E. - .273/.347/.499
Lowell, M. - .275/.336/.444
Rodriguez, A. - .291/.387/.548
Rolen, S. - .263/.342/.434
Mora, M. - .271/.337/.431

Oh, Melvin. With his injury, does A-Rod drop behind Longoria this year?

Marc:” I'm betting 2009 is the year Mora plays like he's 37 years old.”

I had the thought yesterday that maybe Melvin has the reverse problem of a lot of Latin American players (like Tejada) and that he’s really a couple of years younger than we think. That would match up better with his career arc (peak at 29-30 instead of 32-33), and Mora is enough of a space-cadet on the field (and I mean that in the nicest possible way) that I wouldn’t be completely surprised if it turned out to be the case. I’m not saying it’s true, I’m just sayin’ there’s a chance. And it would be really funny.

SS:
Bartlett, J. - .274/.332/.366
Lowrie, J. - .265/.346/.410
Jeter, D. - .299/.367/.419
McDonald, J. - .231/.278/.312
Izturis, C. - .259/.310/.325

Izturis obviously can’t hit very well, but he doesn’t look that horrible in this group. Imagine if he was in the NL East with Hanley, Rollins, Reyes, Escobar, and Guzman.

Marc: “Cesar Izturis should impress defensively in Baltimore but his offense will be abysmal.”

Sully: “With defense factored, will Lowrie be better than Jeter this season?”

Now that is a very interesting question.

LF:
Crawford, C. - .291/.334/.433
Bay, J. - .272/.364/.487
Damon, J. - .279/.352/.423
Lind, A. - .281/.330/.458
Pie, F. - .263/.317/.410

Everyone knows Pie is a project going into the season.

Marc: “Generally speaking, I am really looking forward to watching the young outfield in Baltimore play, with Felix Pie, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis included. Pie was a steal from Chicago and, if motivated, could be just as good as the other two players.”

CF:
Upton, B. - .279/.376/.432
Ellsbury, J. - .293/.350/.415
Gardner, B. - .260/.342/.359
Wells, V. - .274/.329/.457
Jones, A. - .274/.324/.420

The Bossman is #1 (and should be even better than that line), but Jones may find himself in the second spot with even a mild break-out.

RF:
Joyce, M. - .247/.324/.448
Drew, J. - .270/.381/.460
Nady, X. - .278/.332/.462
Rios, A. - .285/.338/.459
Markakis, N. - .297/.378/.477

Replace that Markakis line with my .301/.401/.493 and it’s not even close. I mean, it’s close as it is but he’s still at the top. With A-Rod hurt, Nick might actually be the third best hitter in the AL East next year (after Teixeira and Ortiz).

DH:
Burrell, P. - .245/.368/.464
Ortiz, D. - .281/.387/.543
Matsui, H. - .279/.358/.442
Snider, T. - .262/.330/.462
Scott, L. - .261/.343/.477

Luke holds up pretty well as the DH, considering he’s the only one of these guys that isn’t a minus (sometimes severely) on defense. He would have been second only to Bay in left.

Sully: “Give me the under on Papi and the over on Luke Scott.”

If that under for Ortiz is correct and/or he gets hurt, and Tex has a slow first season in the Bronx, then I can easily see a certain Oriole being the best hitter in the division.

SP: Yeah, we know the O’s rotation sucks. They have an M. Waters putting up a 5.12 ERA. I don’t know who that is; I assume they meant Chris Waters (or maybe Matt Wieters will don an alter-ego and appear on the mound (he did close in college), sometimes pitching to himself – that sounds like on of those “Chuck Norris” type facts [Edit: addressed above]).

Sully: “Sort of like San Francisco's offense heading into last season, I am nothing short of astounded at how bad Baltimore's pitching looks. Of course San Fran wasn't the historically bad lineup I thought they would be so maybe there is hope for that O's staff.”

RP: They only went through the top three relievers for each team, but Sherrill, Ray, and Johnson came out as the worst group.

Bench: They don’t list players, but just discuss them. Every team is mentioned except the Orioles, who’ll have a pretty good one later in the year (Zaun, Wigginton, Freel, Util. player). Stupid (North & South) East Coast (Plus Canada) bias.

Awards:
Wieters got no votes for Rookie of the Year – probably because they don’t think he’ll spend enough time in the Bigs.

Sully: “AL MVP sleeper: Nick Markakis.”

If he wins the AL MVP it’ll be because the O’s at least made a run at the playoffs. And if the O’s are going to make a run at the playoffs, Nick is going to have to have a monster season.

Surprises:

Pete: “I think the Blue Jays could lose 90 games. They have a chance to be dreadful.”
Sully: “I am with Pete. Toronto is going to be horrendous.”

Both guys predicted the O’s to finish fourth. One year in last place and getting to fourth seems like a joyous event. I’ll gladly take it, and it may be becoming more likely than not that that’s how it shakes out (though some Toronto fans let them have it in the comments section). Read more ...

Not As Bad As It Used To Be

I like Andy MacPhail and think he's done a pretty good job with the club thus far, but it's frustrating to me that the Orioles are still behind the curve as far as front-office decision making process goes.

* The Mariners have gone from having one of the worst front-offices in baseball to one of the best under new GM Jeff Zduriencik. They're using stats and video analysis and even hired Tom Tango (of The Book fame) as a consultant.

* The Rays - who were already known to have top-flight leadership - signed Pat Burrell to a 2 year, $16 M contract. Very solid deal instantly improves their offense from the DH spot without overpaying (like the Phillies did with Raul Ibanez - seriously, what where they thinking?).

* The A's traded not much they really needed for Matt Holliday and inked Jason Giambi for only $4.5 M (with a 2010 option for $5 M with a $1 M buyout) to improve a dreadful offense and put them into contention with the Angels (and Rangers and Mariners, really).

* The Pirates are thinking outside the box, signing a couple of hard-throwers from India and seeing if they can turn them into pitchers.

* Heck, even Brian Sabean hasn't done anything stupid yet. Signing Randy Johnson to a one-year deal for $8.5 M (or whatever it was) was fantastic for them. San Fransisco's rotation may be enough to make them contenders in the NL West next year.

Now, it's certainly possible that MacPhail has a handle on defensive metrics and aging curves and all that but doesn't talk about it. Maybe the team has invested heavily in scouting and player development without making it widely known. Since I don't know, the only way to make a judgment on that is by the product on the field and the actions of the GM. With so many contracts coming off the books after 2009, MacPhail will have to chance to take the team in any number of directions. I'm not pessimistic yet, but that may change depending on how the rest of the off-season goes. The only big mistake he's made was saying he doesn't sign players before their third year and waiting on Nick Markakis. That probably cost him (the team) at least $20 M. Hopefully he learns from it and locks Adam Jones up early. (I'd say Matt Wieters too, but agent Scott Boras has shown little willingness to accept those kinds of contracts in the past.) Read more ...

The Rays Win The Pennant!

The Rays Win The Pennant! The Rays Win The Pennant!

Great game. Matt "The Camel" Garza was very good. I finally understand his nickname, as he seems to spit 2-3 times before each pitch. Tampa Bay will host the Phillies on Wednesday, and I think the Rays have the edge with their starting pitching.

That front-office is darn near brilliant. They built a team on a payroll that's less than what the left side of the Yankees' infield is making.

Go Rays! Read more ...

Rays-Red Sox, Pitcher's Duel

Year-end stuff (I'm hoping to go over each team - maybe 3 or so a week) will start after the election/exam I have to take in early November. I finally got cable so I'll be watching the first game of the Rays-Red Sox series (which I consider to be the real World Series) and leaving some comments. On paper the Sox are the better team, but I think the Rays will pull it out and head to the World Series in their first wining season ever.

Top 1

* James Shields has a really good change-up, which he uses to K Jacoby Ellsbury to start the game. It was a very smart move (among many smart moves) by the Rays to lock him up cheaply.

* Potential MVP candidate Dustin Pedroia draws a walk. I now very reluctantly admit that Pedroia is a pretty darn good baseball player.

* David Ortiz flies to BJ Upton in center. Upton's power from last year has fallen off, but he's played some quality defense to make up for it (as well as walking at a high rate).

* Kevin Youkilis double down the right-field line. The ball bounces into the stands which keeps Pedroia at third.

* Back-to-back change-ups after some good set-up sends JD Drew down swinging to leave a couple stranded.

Bottom 1

* Daisuke Matsuzaka is a great example of why traditional stats are dumb. Without looking it up; he went (about) 18-2 with a 2.80 ERA but walked 4.61 per nine and had a solid (but not great) strike-out rate. True to form, he walks Akinori Iwomura. [Edit: Matsuzaka actually went 18-3, 2.90 ERA, 5.05 BB/9, 8.27 K/9]

* Upton flies out to left, but man did he just miss that fastball down the middle of the plate.

* The Sox have an infield shift for Carlos Pena, who squares to bunt before pulling the bat back. Pena shows his patience and draws a walk.

* Soon to be Rookie of the Year Evan Longoria up. Boy does Tampa Bay look smart for having signed him after just six games in the majors. Daisuke gets him looking on a cutter (?) on the inside corner.

* Carl Crawford is batting fifth for the Rays. That's pretty interesting, and I'm sure they have a good reason for it (besides his general lack of OBP skills). Except right then, when he draws a walk.

* Cliff Floyd grounds out to second to leave the bases loaded.

Bottom 2 (sorry, I got distracted)

* Dioner "Bandwagon" Navarro goes down swinging on a high fastball.

* Gabe Gross - one of those role-players that the Rays have been very good at utilizing - up next. Huh... apparently he's from Baltimore. I just became a slightly bigger Gabe Gross fan. Unfortunately he swings and misses a change-up for strike three.

* Jason Bartlett - the shortstop acquired in the Delmon Young - Matt Garza trade - was named the Rays MVP this year. It was largely a symbolic pick as Bartlett represented the vastly improved Rays defense. The thing is, Bartlett isn't even close to being the MVP of the left side of the Rays' infield. Still a solid player though. He pops out to Youk at third, and the game stays scoreless through two.

Top 3

* Jason Varitek out on strikes.

* Ellsbury pops out to short on the first pitch.

* As does Pedroia. Shields looking good.

Bottom 3

* Pena draws a two-out walk.

* Longoria whiffs on a high fastball for his second strike-out.

Top 4

* Youk lines a one-out single to left-center. He may not be the Greek God of Walks with the bat, but combined with his defense at both the infield corners, he's a valuable player.

* JD Drew grounds into a double play. Go Rays!

Bottom 4

* 1-2-3 go the Rays (that's not what I meant guys). Daisuke has 7 K's now. Quite the pitcher's duel going on.

Top 5

* With no outs and a runner on first, Mark Kotsay checks his swing but ends up at second with a double as the ball went down the left-field line.

* Jed Lowrie flies out to right, but Jason Bay (who had walked) comes in to score to give Boston a 1-0 lead.

* The Rays bring the infield in with Kotsay at third. Varitek hits it hard, but Iwamura is able to stop it at second and throw him out without the runner scoring.

* Ellsbury bloops one into short center, but Bartlett is there to make a nice over-the-shoulder catch. MVP...MVP...MVP

Bottom 5

* Another perfect inning for Matsuzaka.

Top 6

* Pedroia grounds to Longoria at third, with Pena making a nice pick at the other end.

* Shields K's Ortiz and then gets Youkilis to keep it at 1-0.

Bottom 6

* Yet another perfect inning. No-hitter still going.

Top 7

* Sox get two on with no outs, but a couple of pop-ups with a K in-between gets Shields out of it. Rays need some offense.

Bottom 7

* Crawford lines the first pitch into right for a clean single.

* Cliff Floyd follows that up with a single to left-center. Crawford flies around second and ends up at third easily.

* Navarro flies to left, but it's not deep enough for Crawford to score.

* Gross works the count full but strikes out on what would have probably been ball four.

* Bartlett grounds out and the opportunity is squandered.

Top 8

* Shields gives up a one-out single to Pedroia and lefty JP Howell will come in to face Ortiz.

* Pedroia steals second and Ortiz walks. Tampa Bay needs to keep it 1-0.

* Youk lines a pitch into left. Crawford slides but the ball goes off his glove and a run scores. Not looking good.

* Grant Balfour in... way in, as he drills JD Drew in the shoulder (very close to his head) with his first pitch. Balfour isn't exactly a control specialist.

* Bases loaded for Bay. Balfour throws the fastball by him for the second out.

* Kotsay pops out, and the Rays have two innings to score at least two runs.

Bottom 8

* Iwamura pokes one through the left side for a lead-off single.

* Passed ball allows Iwamura to take second. Upton smokes it to third where Youk makes a diving stop. The ball knocks off his glove a little and he can't get to it in-time, and Upton is safe at first. That will end Daisuke's day - he pitched very well, but the Rays are threatening.

* Hideki Okajima in to face Pena. 3-0 count and Pena flies out to right. It looked like he got a good bit of it, but the ball was off the end of the bat a little.

* Rookie right-hander Justin Masterson relives Okajima. His sinker gets Longoria to ground into a double play. Still 2-0.

Top 9

* Balfour and David Price combine to pitch a perfect ninth.

Bottom 9

* Jon Papelbon in for the save. He strikes Crawford out swinging for the first out.

* Cliff Floyd pops up to Youk; two outs.

* Navarro goes down swinging to end the game.

Despite a well pitched game by Shields, the Red Sox go up one game to none behind an even better performance from Matsuzaka. Read more ...

O's-Rays, The Better Team Won

The Tampa Bay Rays have the best record in the AL and are 18.5 games ahead of the Orioles right now. That's pretty amazing, and I will be happily cheering for them once they get to the postseason. They are now the kind of organization the O's should try to model themselves after.

Nice start for the O's against Scott Kazmir, as Brian Roberts draws a walk. Markakis uncharacteristically swings at the first pitch and flies out to center. With Mora up, Roberts steals second fairly easily and then takes third uncontested. Melvin can't get him in though, as he grounds out to third. Neither can Huff, who grounds to first. Despite Robert's efforts in the inning, the O's don't score.

Jeremy Guthrie's starting for the Birds, so this should be a pretty good pitching match-up. Iwamura decides to cut to the chase and just take third right away. Lead-off triple, and now the Rays have a good chance to score. Upton grounds to short, but unlike Roberts in the top of the inning, Iwamura takes off for home. Castro makes a solid throw, and a short rundown results in the first out, though Upton takes second. Carlos Pena walks, and as the ball bounces away from Ramon Upton takes third with a stolen base (he was off during the pitch). Cliff Floyd with a shot into the right-field corner makes it 1-0 Rays. Willie Aybar strikes-out looking and Eric Hinske grounds back to Guthrie to end the inning and leave a couple stranded.

Three-up, three-down go the O's in the second, including a pair of K's.

A one-out single is almost erased by a double play, but Castro's relay throw to first is a bit off-line. Walks to Iwamura and Upton load the bases for Pena, who then walks himself to force in a run. Not the control we're used to from Guthrie. Then Floyd walks to force in another run. Lance Cormier is warming in the pen, with the score 3-0 already. Guthrie finally gets out of it by getting Aybar to pop out.

Castro draws a one-out walk, then Markakis draws a two-out walk. Mora battles through a good at bat and ends up grounding a 3-2 pitch up the middle. Iwamura slides to get it and throws Mora out by a half-step, and Melvin goes to the ground in pain. It looks like a ham-string injury - hopefully it's not serious, but I imagine he'll leave the game.

Alex Cintron takes over for Mora, and Guthrie keeps the Rays off the board despite a single by Gabe Gross.

Ramon finally gets the O's into the hit-column with a line-drive single to right-center. Millar strikes out (Kazmir's second of the inning and fifth of the game) and Luke Scott pops out to leave him stranded. 3-0 Tampa Bay, and I'm not feeling confident about a comeback.

Back-to-back singles by Iwamura and Upton start the fourth. Jim Palmer is noting that Jeremy Guthrie's less than stellar outing thus far may be the result of the number of innings he's thrown this year. (175.1 IP last year and 183.2 IP coming into this game.) I had the same thought during second when he walked in two runs. With a nine-man bullpen and the season already mostly lost, there's not much point in pushing Guthrie too much for the remainder of the year. Carlos Pena walks again (Jeremy's sixth) to load the bases with none out. I have to think he won't be long for this game. Floyd once again pull the ball into the right-field corner for and RBI double; this time scoring two. That makes it 5-0 (with two on and still no outs) and Fernando Cabrera will enter the game. Aybar grounds out to Millar without a run scoring, and Cabrera intentionally walks Hinske to load the bases. Ben Zobrist, deep and gone. A line-drive grand slam into the right-field stands makes it 9-0. Something I found really interesting about the Rays which I don't remember where I read, is that instead of targeting superstars to acquire and assuming they can fill the rest of the spots with whatever role-players, they target role-players. Ben Zobrist, Willy Aybar, Eric Hinske, Cliff Floyd, Gabe Gross, the bullpen arms, etc. These are the guys that are providing the little extra that has made the Rays one of the best teams in baseball. Speaking of Gross - he crushes a home run to dead center to stretch the lead to 10-0. Ramon catches ball two from Cabrera to Iwamura, and gets thrown out of the game for arguing with the umpire. The strike-zone didn't help Guthrie - and it's nice to see Ramon protecting his pitchers, I guess - but it's 10-0 and the team is already playing with a short bench. For all intents and purposes, the game is now over.

I'm going to go ahead and just be happy that the Rays are moving further ahead of the Red Sox (and the Yankees, but New York is already out of it, in my opinion - both in the AL East, as well as the Wild Card). Tampa Bay has a pretty decent chance to win the World Series this year, and this may still be the worst Rays team we say for a while. The core is under control for at least a couple more years, and they have David Price, Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson, etc. coming up soon to further strengthen their rotation. Plus their position prospects. I really do wish they were in another division, because I've been a fan for a couple of years now (since a little while after the new front-office regime took over) and it would be nice to be able to cheer for them outright. Read more ...

Rocco In For Injured Rays

It's nice to see Rocco Baldelli back in the big-leagues with the Rays. Before the season started, Baldelli's entire career was in jeopardy because of a mitochondrial something-or-other that left him too tired to play. With that hopefully squared away, or at least under control, Rocco is in a position to really help out the club with both Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria on the DL - the former maybe for the rest of the season. Tampa Bay will be careful with Baldelli, apparently using Gabe Gross to shadow him in case he needs to come out of a game. With top prospect David Price potentially being this year's "Joba" - coming up from the minors to throw upper 90's fastballs and wicked sliders out of the pen - the Rays may actually have the depth to hang on to their AL East lead. I was higher on the team than many, but no way would I have predicted a 95 win season for the Rays. Even Baseball Prospectus, with their seemingly crazy call for 88-89 wins, may have undershot them. What's going to happen to the rest of the teams in the East once Tampa Bay starts calling up the rest of their prospects? How are the Orioles - on their way up and a team that would be in contention in the NL West - going to be able to compete with the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays (and Blue Jays, I guess)? Read more ...

No More Chad Bradford Scraping The Dirt As A Bird

Kudos to Andy MacPhail on sticking with the plan. Chad Bradford was claimed on waivers by the Tampa Bay Rays (as if they need more bullpen help) and a deal was worked out with a PTBNL coming over to the O's. If the asking price was that low (depending on the N of the P), then it seems a trade could have been made a week ago (before the deadline) and so there would have potentially been more teams involved in the bidding. In any case, I'm anxious to see who they got - considering the Rays' system, they could send over their #23 prospect and he could step right into the O's rotation. At the very least, the O's clear out some payroll (though Bradford may have resulted in at least a supplemental draft pick after next season, which needs to be taken into
account). Who else is on their way out of Baltimore? There are several guys that should pass through waivers (Payton, Mora, Millar, Walker, Ramon, Huff maybe). Read more ...

DL Bound O's And Four Against The Royals

I've been feeling under the weather recently; thus the lack of posts. A lot of things have happened in the last few days, including a flurry of roster moves.

*Brandon Fahey was called up in favor of Oscar Salazar to give the team a second shortstop.
*Matt Albers was put on the DL with a torn labrum and may be done for the season - no point in rushing him back, as they won't be playing for anything.
*Jamie Walker was placed on the DL with some elbow inflammation, and Adam Loewen was called up to take his spot in the pen. I like the move - Loewen isn't in a position to be an effective starter yet, but still has good stuff. I believe the usual improvement going from the rotation to the pen is in the neighborhood of 1.5 runs per nine (say, 6.00 ERA to 4.50).
*Alex Cintron went on the DL with a strained hamstring, and Freddie Bynum was called back up. The O's have a pretty sad shortstop situation, but it's better than trading David Hernandez (or whoever) for Eckstein or Jack Wilson.

There was also a four-game series with the red-hot Royals, who had won 11 of their last 14 games.

June 30th: O's - 5, Royals - 6

The Good: Every starter reached bases on offense, with Razor hitting a home run; they put up 5 runs against Zach Greinke; Brian Burres gave up only one in his five innings of work.

The Bad: The offense got shutout by the Royals' pen; the O's pen wasn't so lucky, giving up 5 runs, including the the game-tying two-out two-strike solo home run by pinch-hitter Miguel Olivo off of George Sherrill in the ninth - the second time in as many games that Sherrill had blown a save in that manner; the Orioles reverting the their pre-2008 ways, blowing a 5-1 lead and losing in extra-innings.

July 1st: O's - 7, Royals - 5

The Good: Radhames Liz walking just one in six innings (and it was in the sixth) and pitching a quality start (6 IP, 3 R); Adam Loewen coming out for the first time since April and going two scoreless; George Sherrill coming in with runners on in the ninth and locking down the win; Huff and Ramon continuing their hot hitting with two hits each; and a homer and a stolen base by Brian Roberts.

The Bad: Dennis Sarfate walking a pair with a four run lead in the ninth, and Sherrill allowing both runners to score. Not much else to complain about, despite the close score.

July 2nd: O's - 5, Royals - 2

The Good: Daniel Cabrera (CG, 7 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 2 K) throwing 75 of 105 pitches for strikes and saving the bullpen; Aubrey Huff hitting a home run; Razor going 3-4; and Roberts and Markakis each getting on twice and scoring a pair of runs.

The Bad: They only scored five?

July 3rd: O's - 7, Royals - 10

The Good: The exciting two inning stretch where they put 7 runs on the board - three via a pair of homers by Aubrey Huff (he now has 17, which is two more than he had all of last year) and two more on back-to-back triples by Jones and Fahey; Fernando Cabrera pitching a prefect ninth with a K.

The Bad: Garrett Olson giving up 6 runs in 5.1 IP including a home run to Tony Pena Jr. (he of the .214 SLG and 4 career HR); Adam Loewen relieving him and giving up three straight singles before being removed (all three scored) as part of a 7 run KC sixth; blowing a 7-3 lead to split the series instead of taking 3-of-4.

I was disappointed that they only won two of the four games at home, but I think a lot of it is just regression (to the mean) by a bullpen that was pitching over it's head for the first half of the year. Hopefully that unpleasantness is over with, and they'll go back to keeping leads and holding the other team down for the offense to come back. Read more ...

Injured Papi

Hey, remember when David Ortiz hurt his wrist on that Dennis Sarfate pitch? Now, I bet the Sox would have rather lost that game via forfeit instead of having to play it. Instead, they'll lose their slugging DH for at least a month, and possibly the rest of the season. I don't remember if this is exactly right (I'm writing this from memory and don't feel like taking 3 seconds to do a google search - ah, the freedom from responsibility of blogging) but I believe the sheath of the tendon is damaged, and that this type of injury can be quite serious long-term. It's the same kind of thing that turned Nomar from a future Hall of Famer into the guy taking Andy LaRoche's spot in LA. The Sox have a number of options at this point: they could use The Mayor (Sean Casey) as the DH; they could shift Manny to DH and play with a very good defensive outfield (Ellsbury, Crisp, and Drew), which is OK because they don't really need the extra offense; or they could see if there is some left-handed slugger with power and good plate discipline who's knees make it preferable that he DH "freely" available... you know, like Scott Hatteberg.

In any case, this might be the type of thing that actually allows the Rays to win this division. That is so crazy, I can't believe I just typed it. I picked Tampa Bay to finish under .500 (barely) because I couldn't bring myself to accept that they would have such a huge turnaround. Based on talent, I probably would have had to say 85 wins or so, and they still may beat that by a good bit. It's a shame that they still aren't getting much of a turnout for their games - if I lived down there I would go every chance I got. Read more ...

Another Ray Hanging Around For A While

The Rays have done it again, locking up their ace lefty, Scott Kazmir, to a three-year $28.5 million extension. They also have an $11 million team option for 2012. Kazmir was set to become a free agent after the 2010 season, so the deal buys out one or two years of free agency. I was very surprised that Kazmir would agree to sign for such a low amount - there was talk of him becoming that next $20 million a year pitcher once he hit the market at age 26. Guys this good rarely can be signed as free agents that young.

Just to compare, Johan Santana has been worth about 10 WARP1 the last few years and he's getting $23 million a year from the Mets (that's $2.3 million a WARP1). Kazmir was worth 8.8 WARP1 in 2007, but lets round it down to 8 (it was just 6.2 the previous year, but he has shown improvement every season). That makes him an $18.4 million player. So the three garunteed years end up being about ($18.4 * 60% =) $11 + ($18.4 * 80% =) $14.7 + $18.4 = $44.1 million. That means that Kazmir is giving up about $15.6 million (at least) to get some security. He was injured this year so there is definitely some risk to the Rays, but as I have said before; signing a whole bunch of good young players to "cheap" deals means that it won't be too bad if some of them don't work out - the team is still getting good value overall. Everything I had heard indicated that Kazmir wanted to test the market though, so perhaps he has become more worried about potential arm injuries.

The Rays now have Kazmir, James Shields, and Matt Garza heading their rotation for at least the next three years, with Wade Davis, Jake McGee, and David Price on the way (and those are just the guys with top-of-the-rotation potential!). That is very. very scary. As if it wasn't bad enough when the O's just had the Red Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays to deal with. I picked them to finish under .500 this year (barely) because I found it improbable that their fortunes would swing around so fast. This just goes to show you what a great front office can do. How cool would a Rays-Marlins World Series be? Read more ...

O's-Rays, Olson Makes His Mark

Garrett Olson starts things off well with a strike to Akinori Iwamura. After a couple balls, Iwamura grounds out to short (it's the Pelican out there again today). Carl Crawford gets ahead 3-0 (some questionable calls in there) but Olson comes back to strike him out looking. BJ Upton flies out to right to end the inning. That fastball command that he was lacking last year, seems to be there so far today.

Brian Roberts grounds out, but Mora works the count and draws a walk. Markakis actually chases a 0-1 pitch, and fouls it off. Nick fouls out to Evan Longoria, and there are two down. A big reason for the Rays turnaround has been the play of their defense - they've gone from dead-last in defensive efficiency (the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs) to third. The O's, by the way, have gone from 18th to second. The defense can't help you when you walk guys, however, and that's just what Jason Hammel does against Kevin Millar. Aubrey Huff then walks on four pitches to load the bases for Luke Scott. Scott grounds out to second, and
the O's leave three on. Come on guys, where's the clutch hitting?!?

Olson throws Carlos Pena a 3-2 breaking-ball, and gets him to ground to second. Longoria pops out, and Johnny Gomes goes down swinging at a high fastball. Six up, six down for Olson.

Ramon Hernandez gets ahead 3-0 and singles, and the Pelican follows it up with a bloop single of his own. B-Rob lines out to left, but Mora comes through with a single to score Ramon. 1-0 O's, and there are runners on the corners for Kakes. Nick lines one off of Pena's glove at first - it's an RBI single for Markakis.
Millar flicks one to right, but Eric Hinske makes a diving catch to end the inning.

Navarro strikes out swinging at a change-up. Hinske walks on a 3-2 breaking-ball, and Jim Palmer is blaming the pitch selection on Ramon. I agree, and have been unhappy with Ramon's game-calling all year. A hit-and-run results in a single to right, and the throw by Nick goes over the cut-off man allowing the runner to go to second. Olson will have to work out of a bit of a jam here. Iwamura walks to load the bases. Crawford grounds to third, and Mora goes home to get the force. The bases are still loaded, but there are two outs. Olson will get out of it, throwing the fastball by BJ Upton for his fourth K of the game.

Huff walks again, on four pitches. Luke Scott flies out to right, and Adam Jones lines a single to left. Ramon Hernandez sends a ball deep to right, and it'll be over Hinske's head. Huff scores, and Jones is being waved in. He is somehow out by a mile (upon replay, Jones fell down while rounding third). Ramon goes in to third, but he should have gotten a pair of RBI on that one. It's still 3-0 Orioles, and Hammel is being taken out of the game. Luis goes down swinging against JP Howell, but Olson now has a little more breathing room.

Carlos Pena grounds out again, and Olson gets Longoria looking on a breaking-ball. That's K number 5. Gomes grounds to short, and the Rays go down 1-2-3.

Brian Roberts walks in the fourth, but that's it for the O's.

An infield hit and a walk put two on with none out, but Olson is once again able to get out of it without a run scoring.

Howell walks Luuuke, but strikes out a pair to keep the Rays back just three.

Upton grounds to third, and Mora has to spin and throw - he doesn't get much on it, but Millar does a nice job to pick it out of the dirt. Pena grounds slowly to first, and Millar can't make this one - it'll be another infield hit. Olson walks Longoria on four pitches, and Randor is warming in the pen. I'd like to see Trembley get Garrett out of there with a chance to still get the win. Wow, Ramon finally does something right behind the plate. Navarro takes a ball, and Hernandez fires to first to pick off Longoria. That'll end the inning, and very possibly Olson's night. Great job by Garrett - 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 5 K. The walks are a concern, but he looked good. I'd definitely rather see him pitching instead of Trachsel.

Apparently, Luis has been told that he has a week or so to take hold of the starting shortstop spot with Fahey in the minors. The Pelican helps his cause with a single to third that Longoria can't handle. Roberts hits one deep to left, and Crawford has the ball go off his glove for a double. Mora sends one to left himself - Crawford handles this one, but both runners tag-up. That makes it 4-0 O's. Markakis does his usual not swinging at balls out of the zone, but gets called out on strikes anyway. Nick is striking out a ton this year (he's on pace for 156) but I'm not too worried about it since many of the strike-outs have been called, on pitches that weren't really strikes. I'd rather he K more, than swing at balls (well, maybe not with one out and a runner on third). No big deal, as Millar picks him up with a single to center. 5-0 Orioles. Actually, let's make it 7-0. Huff Daddy (that's what the guy on the radio calls him, and I wanted to try it out - it's better written than spoken, but I'll avoid it in the future) sends one over the center-field fence for his fifth HR of the year. I think it's safe to say that Olson will be picking up his first win of the season.

Huh, with a 7-0 lead Trembley is letting Olson (88 pitches) go out for the seventh. Why not bring in Bob McCrory in the low-leverage situation to get his feet wet? Navarro walks on four pitches, but Olson comes back to strike Hinske out swinging. Bartlett bloops one to short center, and Roberts can't make the over-the-shoulder catch. Adam Jones picks it up and quickly fires to second to force Navarro. Iwamura send one deep over Jones' head in center for a double, and the shut-out is gone. Now Trembley is taking him out. So it's actually 6.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 5 BB, 6 K on 105 pitches. I don't think there was any reason for Olson to start this inning. In the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter, but why not let him go out with a shut-out, instead of having to be taken out in the middle of an inning after giving up a run.

A hit by Crawford off of Bierd puts another run on Olson's line, and now it looks a lot more pedestrian at 6.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 5 BB, 6 K. BJ Upton drills one to the opposite field - two run home run, and it's now 7-4. Should have brought in McCrory. Carlos Pena threatens to make it 7-5, but Adam Jones reaches up and makes the catch on the warning track in deep left-center.

Jones hits a rocket to short, but Bartlett makes a nice play to knock it down and throw him out. Bartlett wasn't just a throw-in in the Delmon Young - Matt Garza trade; he's a big part of the Rays' improved defense. Ramon continues his good day by drawing a walk. The Pelican grounds to second, and with first base open, the Rays will intentionally walk Brian Roberts. They're already down by three, and are putting extra runners on base - the lead-off man no less. It works out OK this time as Mora strikes out.

Chad Bradford is in to start the eighth (should have brought McCrory in to start the seventh - it would have saved the pen, I think). Bradford gets his usual ground ball, but Longoria hits it up the middle for a single. Recently acquired (from MIL) Gabe Gross pinch hits for Gomes. Chad gets Gross looking for the first out. Another ground ball up the middle will bring Hinske to the plate as the tying run. Walker will be coming in to face the lefty. Jamie does his job, striking Kinske out looking with a fastball right on the outside corner. Bartlett grounds out, and the Rays can't score.

Former Oriole Kurt Birkins is coming in to face Nick Markakis. Birkins gets ahead 0-2 and gets Nick to ground to short. Millar walks, but Kurt comes back to K Huff swinging. Jay Payton will bat for Luke Scott (grrr, let Scott hit - he can hit lefties about as well as Payton can (.850 OPS for Luke vs .760 for Jay last year , actually)). Payton flies out and (for the tenth time this year) it'll be George Sherrill time in the ninth.

Iwamura goes down swinging, and Sherrill looks good coming back from the blown save in Chicago. Crawford grounds slowly to third, but Mora throws him out by a step. Upton takes for balls, and walks down to first. Sherrill vs. Pena (don't pull a Jamie Walker, George). He gets some, but not enough - Nick makes the catch in right and the O's take the game 7-4, ending Tampa Bay's six game win-streak. The Orioles are now 15-11 and remain tied with Boston (and a game ahead of the Rays) for first in the East. Read more ...

6 Days, $17 Million

Tampa Bay third baseman Evan Longoria has been a major leaguer for about a week, but the Rays have already signed him to a long-term contract. Here's a great break-down of the deal (also the link to part 1).

"The base deal is for $17MM over six years. Had Longoria gone year to year with Tampa Bay, his contract would have been dictated to him for the first three. Then he would have battled for three years in arbitration. Thanks to Tom Tango, we know approximately what arbitration payouts are: 40% of free agent value the first year, 60% the second, and 80% the third.

Therefore, Longoria would likely have been paid the league minimum the first three seasons, with perhaps a small bonus to build good will. That’s $500,000 per season or $1.5MM total, leaving $16MM over the final three years of arbitration.

Let’s translate what $16MM worth of arbitration money means on the free agent scale. The average arbitration payout is 60% of what a player would earn as a free agent, so the Rays are paying Longoria like a $27MM player ($16MM/.6) — that’s $9MM per year. Teams are currently paying $4.5MM per free agent win, meaning Longoria’s being paid as though he’ll be a two-win player during his arbitration years.

How good is two wins? It’s league-average. Longoria’s fielding should be worth half a win, meaning he can be a below-average hitter (.320 OBP and .400 SLG?) and still be worth his contract."

I agree with that analysis. The only realistic chance that the Rays will end up regretting this deal is if Longoria gets seriously injured and misses multiple seasons. That is definitely the kind of risk that a small-market team needs to take. It's why I wanted the O's to sign Nick Markakis before the season - waiting will end up costing them millions of dollars. The Rays also have some option years, which means that if Longoria plays as well as expected (or even a little worse) then they will have him at a reduced price - if he doesn't play well then they don't lose much. Great job by Tampa Bay to show their fan-base and their players that they are serious about their commitment to winning, and to reward talent. Read more ...

And I Thought He Was Injury Prone Before

This is a shame.

"Rocco Baldelli will be sidelined indefinitely - but is not retiring - because of what he said are "some type of metabolic and/or mitochondrial abnormalities,'' a condition that leaves him feeling extremely fatigued after just a brief workout.

"When I say "fatigued" my body is literally spent after a very short amount of time out on the field which makes it extremely frustrating and difficult, but it's kind of a reality right now,'' he said during a 13-minute session with reporters before Wednesday's game. "I feel like I've done a serious workout after a very short period of time, and it's a very odd feeling. ... I try not to be too dramatic when I explain what's going on, but it's not easy when you're out on the field for a very short period of time and you're done, and you're not really worth anything else out there. That's a tough thing to handle because you wonder why. You wonder why this is how your body feels.""

Tampa Bay didn't really need Baldelli with Upton now in center, but it would have been an excellent bonus to have the still talented player on the team. I've never heard of this type of thing before, and I hope there is some way to treat it. Maybe the Rays actually sign Bonds now? Read more ...