Glad To Be Out Of Fenway

Nothing like a four-game sweep at the hands of the Boston Red Sox to bring an O's fan back down to earth after a solid start to the season. Just a quick recap of the horror:

Game 1: 10-8 loss, with Jeremy Guthrie (4.2 IP, 8 H, 8 R, 4 BB, 5 K) blowing a 7-0 lead.

Game 2: 6-4 loss, with the O's coming back from the 6-0 hole that Adam Eaton dug (4 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 2 BB, 4 K) but not making it all the way.

Game 3: 2-1 loss, with Jon Lester (7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 9 K) being just a bit better than Koji Uehara (7 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K). Koji became the first O's pitcher to get out of the sixth inning this year. Adam Jones had to leave the game with a sore hamstring.

Game 4: 12-1 loss, with Mark Hendrickson being decent (5 IP, 3 R, 6 K) but Dennis Sarfate (1 IP, 3 R) and especially Radhames Liz (1 out, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 HBP, and 6 R) not so much. Jones didn't play, and Ryan Freel had to leave the game after getting hit in the head with an errant pick-off throw.

The O's have a 6.43 ERA (6.21 FIP) from their pitchers, which can't possibly continue, and -7.6 UZR with the gloves (with Jones, Pie, Markakis, and Izturis all joining Huff as below average thus far), which shouldn't continue, and yet they're still just 6-7 on the season. A lot of that has to do with a .277/.363/.429 team batting line, but that's not quite as far off from what it should be. They win 6 out of every 13 games for the rest of the year and that's a 75 win season, which I think most people would be pretty happy with.

The O's come back to Baltimore for an eight-game homestand, starting off with the Chicago White Sox tomorrow night.

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O's-Red Sox, Eaton's ERA Balloons To 11.25

The O's jumped out to a 7-0 lead in the first game of their series against the Red Sox, but Jeremy Guthrie got knocked around for 8 runs (5 earned) on 8 hits and 4 walks in 4.2 IP. On the bright side, he did strike out 5. Danys Baez gave up what turned out to be the winning runs in the 10-8 game, with Matt Albers pitching the only scoreless innings for the Birds (two of them) though he did give up four baserunners. The top of the order did go 6-12 with 3 walks and 7 RBI (5 by Markakis, with 4 coming his second home run of the year). And every starter except Cesar Izturis got on base again.

The 6-4 Orioles will send Adam Eaton to the mound against Josh Beckett and the 4-6 Red Sox, as the try to even up the series. The Sox have three guys in their line-up with an OPS over 1.000 (Jason Bay at 1.281, Kevin Youlikis at 1.150, and JD Drew at 1.066) and the O's counter with three of their own (Adam Jones at 1.259, Nick Markakis at 1.063, and Brian Roberts at 1.037).

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Top 1:

• Brian Roberts can't catch up to a 94 mph fastball on the outside corner, and starts the game with a strike-out.
• First-pitch curveball to Adam Jones buckles his legs a little and is in there for a called strike. High fastball swung on and missed for K number two.
• Nick Markakis takes an 0-2 curveball into center for a single. The pitch was down and out of the zone, but Nick just dropped the head of the bat on it.
• Aubrey Huff checks his swing on the first pitch a hits a slow roller to third to end the inning.
  

Bottom 1:

• Jacoby Ellsbury flies out to right.
• Fastball on the outside corner gets Dustin Pedroia looking. The strike-zone is fairly large tonight, as the ball was almost certainly off the plate and low.
• 3-2 curveball gets David Ortiz looking. Great pitch by Eaton, and it's nice to see a 1-2-3 inning.
  

Top 2:

• Ty Wigginton grounds out to third.
  
• Luke Scott single in-front of JD Drew in right.
• Gregg Zaun doubles off of the Green Monster in left-field, with Scott holding up at third.
• Felix Pie swings and misses a curveball in the dirt. Then he takes a curveball for a strike. Then a few pitches later he takes another one for strike three.
• Cesar Izturis grounds up the middle, but the shortstop was shaded that way and makes the play. The O's threaten, but can't get a run across.
  

Bottom 2:

• Kevin Youkilis with a lead-off double into the left-field corner.
• Hanging curveball to JD Drew is caught by Jones in center.
• Jason Bay draws a walk. Not the worst thing in the world with first-base open and Mike Lowell coming up.
• Line-drive to left snagged by Pie.
• Jason Varitek doubles down the right-field line to give the Sox a 2-0 lead.
• Nick Green grounds back to the mound to end the inning.
  

Top 3:

• Roberts takes a fastball way out of the zone for a strike. Jim Palmer says that he wants to go down and pitch given the size of the zone. Roberts is talking about it with the ump, and Dave Trembley comes out to defend his player. Brian ends up flying out to left.
• Jones grounds out sharply to third.
• Markakis draws a walk. I was worried that given his high batting average, Nick would stop walking. He has, but he's kept his plate discipline in tact (18.2% of balls outside the zone swung at this year, compared to 18% last year). He may actually improve for a third straight year. $66 M is a steal.
  
• Huff thought he walked on four pitches, but the ump calls a 3-0 fastball almost a foot outside a strike. The second one is called a ball, and Aubrey goes to first-base.
• Wigginton flies out to leave a couple stranded.
  

Bottom 3:

• Ellsbury flies out to center.
• Pedroia bloops a single into right-field.
• Ortiz bloops a curveball into left-filed. Eaton isn't pitching poorly, but sometimes the hits just fall in.
• Youkilis isn't happy about the zone either, as a couple of calls aren't to his liking. Doesn't much matter, as a he takes a high change-up over the Monster for a three-run homer. 4-0 Boston.
• Curveball off the plate gets Drew looking. It wasn't the worst call of the night.
• Bay walks again, as Eaton doesn't even come close to getting one into the gigantic zone.
• Big jump lets bay steal second despite a nice throw from Zaun. Single by Lowell brings him in on the next pitch. At least Pie plays the ball well off the wall to keep it at one base.
• Varitek flies out to center. You have to be pretty bad to give up five runs with this strike-zone to work with.
  

Top 4:

• O's go down in order in the fourth.
  

Bottom 4:

• Three hits brings in the sixth Boston run, but Eaton is able to get Drew swinging to leave a couple runners on.
  

Top 5:

• Izturis drops a great bunt down the third-base line. Not even a throw, and Cesar singles to start the inning.
• Roberts doubles into the left-field corner. Breaking up this shutout would be nice.
• Jones walks to load the bases. Beckett tried to get him to chase a pitch out of the zone with two strikes, but Adam wouldn't do it.
• Markakis walks for the second time to bring in a run. Great at bat, not trying to do too much.
• 2-0 fastball up in the zone gets driven off the Monster by Huff to clear the bases (with an assist to Nick Green in not coming up with the throw from the outfield). Just like that it's 6-4, with still no outs.
• Wigginton hits a line-drive, but it goes right to Lowell at third.
• Scott grounds back to the mound, and Beckett catches Huff too far off base. Aubrey gets tagged out, but he stays in the run-down long enough to allow Luke to get to second.
• Zaun flies out to right-field, but the O's are right back in this game.
  

Bottom 5:

• Brian Bass in to start the fifth. Another four-inning performance from Eaton, who's line once again looks a little worse than his pitching would have implied.
• Lowell with a one-out double into left-field. Pie made a bad throw, where a good one might have had him.
• Varitek walks.
• Green pops out to Huff.
• Ellsbury grounds to short, with Izturis' throw jsut beating him at first. Nice job by Bass to get out of the inning.
  

Top 6:

• O's can't keep the momentum going, being retired in order.
  

Bottom 6:

• Pedroia gets drilled in the leg with a fastball, and limps down to first-base.
• Given that, it seems strange that he would try to steal second. Zaun makes a great throw, and Pedroia is out pretty easily.
• Ortiz grounds out, on a play that would have been difficult if - as Gary Thorne says - the big DH could run at all.
  
• Bass strikes Youklis out swinging with a good breaking-ball.
  

Top 7:

• Okajima in there for Beckett.
  
• Jones strikes out looking.
• Markakis strikes out swinging.
• Huff pops out on the first pitch.
  

Bottom 7:

• After a double by Drew, Chris Ray comes in to pitch.
• He strikes Bay out swinging.
• Lowell flies out to center.
• Varitek gets intentionally walked (despite being a pretty bad hitter) to bring Green up.
• Actually it won't, as lefty-swinging Chris Carter will pinch-hit. I might have preferred to pitch to Varitek, even without considering the extra runner aboard. Doesn't much matter, as Ray strikes him out looking.
  

Top 8:

• Wigginton rips a single to center off Saito. Ty somehow steals second, despite the throw beating him to the bag.
  
• Scott strikes out swinging.
• Zaun can't check his swing, and goes down as the second K of the inning.
• Pie flies out to right. If there will be a comeback tonight, it'll have to be off of the closer.
  

Bottom 8:

• Jim Johnson will try to keep the defecit at two.
• JJ gets Ellsbury to ground to second, with Roberts making a nice play to throw across his body to get the speedy runner.
• Pedroia chases a 94 mph fastball up and out of the zone (probably - hard to tell in this game). First strike-out for JJ.
• Ortiz flies out to medium-depth right-field, and it's Roberts raging out there and dropping the ball. Brian was already on the outfield grass due to the shift, and that's why he was the once to attepmt the catch with Nicl playing very deep.
• Youkilis doubles into left for his fourth hit of the day.
• Drew gets the intentional walk to load the bases for Bay. I don't like where this is going.
• Johnson gets Bay to flyout to right, a couple of pitches after a ball falls a 2-3 inches foul down the left-field line.
  

Top 9:

• Jon Papelbon in for the save.
• Izturis starts things off and takes a fastball nowhere near the inside corner for a strike. Cesar works the count full, but ends up popping out.
• Roberts gets ahead 3-0, and singles through the left side on a 3-2 pitch. Tying run coming to the plate.
• Jones gets hit on the elbow with a first-pitch fastball. The tying run is now on base.
• After falling behind 0-2, Nick works gets it to a full count before flying out to right. It's up to Aubrey Huff.
• Pop-out to short ends the game.

The minor comeback was nice, but it wasn't enough. The bullpen didn't give up any runs, at least. And this time it was every Oriole expect Pie getting on base. The O's will try to stay above .500 tomorrow, as well as keep there undefeated streak in series going.
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The Beast & The Least Of The East

Continuing their off-season series, the BaseballAnalysts went through their AL East Preview by position, using a combination of projections systems.

C:
Navarro, D. - .267/.334/.389
Varitek, J. - .236/.328/.390
Posada, J. - .273/.366/.448
Barajas, R. - .243/.303/.392
Wieters, M. - .298/.382/.499

Matt Wieters has easily the best projection, being tops in BA (by 25 points over second place Jorge Posada), OBP (16 over Posada again), and SLG (51 over Posada, again). Even my .289/.359/.482 line would make him better with the bat than the other catchers (though Posada’s .366 OBP would be tops in that category).

Pete: “I wonder how much we'll see of Matt Wieters. It doesn't make much sense for Baltimore to start his clock yet.”

Sully: “Wieters in the Minors would be an absolute mockery. After he wins the MVP this season, I fully expect him to fix Healthcare and restore economic prosperity in America.”

Idea... Matt Wieters Facts. Thanks, Sully.

Gregg Zaun’s .241/.340/.374 line actually compares pretty favorably to the other non-Posada catchers.

1B:
Pena, C. - .254/.370/.500
Youkilis, K. - .283/.377/.474
Teixeira, M. - .290/.383/.525
Overbay, L. - .265/.343/.419
Huff, A. - .279/.340/.471

At least Huff is a better hitter than Overbay.

2B:
Iwamura, A. - .270/.346/.389
Pedroia, D. - .307/.368/.456
Cano, R. - .292/.331/.450
Hill, A. - .277/.334/.408
Roberts, B. - .282/.359/.424

I’d like to see how Roberts would rank in this group with the bat if Pedroia didn’t play half is games at Fenway.

3B:
Longoria, E. - .273/.347/.499
Lowell, M. - .275/.336/.444
Rodriguez, A. - .291/.387/.548
Rolen, S. - .263/.342/.434
Mora, M. - .271/.337/.431

Oh, Melvin. With his injury, does A-Rod drop behind Longoria this year?

Marc:” I'm betting 2009 is the year Mora plays like he's 37 years old.”

I had the thought yesterday that maybe Melvin has the reverse problem of a lot of Latin American players (like Tejada) and that he’s really a couple of years younger than we think. That would match up better with his career arc (peak at 29-30 instead of 32-33), and Mora is enough of a space-cadet on the field (and I mean that in the nicest possible way) that I wouldn’t be completely surprised if it turned out to be the case. I’m not saying it’s true, I’m just sayin’ there’s a chance. And it would be really funny.

SS:
Bartlett, J. - .274/.332/.366
Lowrie, J. - .265/.346/.410
Jeter, D. - .299/.367/.419
McDonald, J. - .231/.278/.312
Izturis, C. - .259/.310/.325

Izturis obviously can’t hit very well, but he doesn’t look that horrible in this group. Imagine if he was in the NL East with Hanley, Rollins, Reyes, Escobar, and Guzman.

Marc: “Cesar Izturis should impress defensively in Baltimore but his offense will be abysmal.”

Sully: “With defense factored, will Lowrie be better than Jeter this season?”

Now that is a very interesting question.

LF:
Crawford, C. - .291/.334/.433
Bay, J. - .272/.364/.487
Damon, J. - .279/.352/.423
Lind, A. - .281/.330/.458
Pie, F. - .263/.317/.410

Everyone knows Pie is a project going into the season.

Marc: “Generally speaking, I am really looking forward to watching the young outfield in Baltimore play, with Felix Pie, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis included. Pie was a steal from Chicago and, if motivated, could be just as good as the other two players.”

CF:
Upton, B. - .279/.376/.432
Ellsbury, J. - .293/.350/.415
Gardner, B. - .260/.342/.359
Wells, V. - .274/.329/.457
Jones, A. - .274/.324/.420

The Bossman is #1 (and should be even better than that line), but Jones may find himself in the second spot with even a mild break-out.

RF:
Joyce, M. - .247/.324/.448
Drew, J. - .270/.381/.460
Nady, X. - .278/.332/.462
Rios, A. - .285/.338/.459
Markakis, N. - .297/.378/.477

Replace that Markakis line with my .301/.401/.493 and it’s not even close. I mean, it’s close as it is but he’s still at the top. With A-Rod hurt, Nick might actually be the third best hitter in the AL East next year (after Teixeira and Ortiz).

DH:
Burrell, P. - .245/.368/.464
Ortiz, D. - .281/.387/.543
Matsui, H. - .279/.358/.442
Snider, T. - .262/.330/.462
Scott, L. - .261/.343/.477

Luke holds up pretty well as the DH, considering he’s the only one of these guys that isn’t a minus (sometimes severely) on defense. He would have been second only to Bay in left.

Sully: “Give me the under on Papi and the over on Luke Scott.”

If that under for Ortiz is correct and/or he gets hurt, and Tex has a slow first season in the Bronx, then I can easily see a certain Oriole being the best hitter in the division.

SP: Yeah, we know the O’s rotation sucks. They have an M. Waters putting up a 5.12 ERA. I don’t know who that is; I assume they meant Chris Waters (or maybe Matt Wieters will don an alter-ego and appear on the mound (he did close in college), sometimes pitching to himself – that sounds like on of those “Chuck Norris” type facts [Edit: addressed above]).

Sully: “Sort of like San Francisco's offense heading into last season, I am nothing short of astounded at how bad Baltimore's pitching looks. Of course San Fran wasn't the historically bad lineup I thought they would be so maybe there is hope for that O's staff.”

RP: They only went through the top three relievers for each team, but Sherrill, Ray, and Johnson came out as the worst group.

Bench: They don’t list players, but just discuss them. Every team is mentioned except the Orioles, who’ll have a pretty good one later in the year (Zaun, Wigginton, Freel, Util. player). Stupid (North & South) East Coast (Plus Canada) bias.

Awards:
Wieters got no votes for Rookie of the Year – probably because they don’t think he’ll spend enough time in the Bigs.

Sully: “AL MVP sleeper: Nick Markakis.”

If he wins the AL MVP it’ll be because the O’s at least made a run at the playoffs. And if the O’s are going to make a run at the playoffs, Nick is going to have to have a monster season.

Surprises:

Pete: “I think the Blue Jays could lose 90 games. They have a chance to be dreadful.”
Sully: “I am with Pete. Toronto is going to be horrendous.”

Both guys predicted the O’s to finish fourth. One year in last place and getting to fourth seems like a joyous event. I’ll gladly take it, and it may be becoming more likely than not that that’s how it shakes out (though some Toronto fans let them have it in the comments section). Read more ...

Goodbye, RAN-DOR!

The O's Rule V pick from last year, right-handed reliever Randor Bierd, has been traded to the Boston Red Sox in return for 25 year-old right-hander David Pauley.

Bierd wasn't anything special last year (4.91 ERA, 5.23 tRA) but I thought he was an interesting arm.

Pauley started 25 games in AAA in 2008, posting a 3.55 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 6.3 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9. The scouting report from soxprospects.com:

"Pauley mixes a very good sinker with a low 90s fastball with good movement, a good changeup, and a nice curveball. Has 5th starter potential at the MLB level. Pauley has demonstrated solid success against AAA competition for extended periods of time, but has yet to impress much at the big league level, although he hasn't been given much of an opportunity. Needs to improve his control somewhat. Gives up a lot of home runs. Good fielder with a strong pick-off move."

I guess you could call that a minor upgrade for the O's, as Pauley should be able to match or beat Bierd production if he was put in the pen. Bierd wasn't even likely to make the team anyway. I will, however, miss having a guy on the roster named Randor. Read more ...

Rays-Red Sox, Pitcher's Duel

Year-end stuff (I'm hoping to go over each team - maybe 3 or so a week) will start after the election/exam I have to take in early November. I finally got cable so I'll be watching the first game of the Rays-Red Sox series (which I consider to be the real World Series) and leaving some comments. On paper the Sox are the better team, but I think the Rays will pull it out and head to the World Series in their first wining season ever.

Top 1

* James Shields has a really good change-up, which he uses to K Jacoby Ellsbury to start the game. It was a very smart move (among many smart moves) by the Rays to lock him up cheaply.

* Potential MVP candidate Dustin Pedroia draws a walk. I now very reluctantly admit that Pedroia is a pretty darn good baseball player.

* David Ortiz flies to BJ Upton in center. Upton's power from last year has fallen off, but he's played some quality defense to make up for it (as well as walking at a high rate).

* Kevin Youkilis double down the right-field line. The ball bounces into the stands which keeps Pedroia at third.

* Back-to-back change-ups after some good set-up sends JD Drew down swinging to leave a couple stranded.

Bottom 1

* Daisuke Matsuzaka is a great example of why traditional stats are dumb. Without looking it up; he went (about) 18-2 with a 2.80 ERA but walked 4.61 per nine and had a solid (but not great) strike-out rate. True to form, he walks Akinori Iwomura. [Edit: Matsuzaka actually went 18-3, 2.90 ERA, 5.05 BB/9, 8.27 K/9]

* Upton flies out to left, but man did he just miss that fastball down the middle of the plate.

* The Sox have an infield shift for Carlos Pena, who squares to bunt before pulling the bat back. Pena shows his patience and draws a walk.

* Soon to be Rookie of the Year Evan Longoria up. Boy does Tampa Bay look smart for having signed him after just six games in the majors. Daisuke gets him looking on a cutter (?) on the inside corner.

* Carl Crawford is batting fifth for the Rays. That's pretty interesting, and I'm sure they have a good reason for it (besides his general lack of OBP skills). Except right then, when he draws a walk.

* Cliff Floyd grounds out to second to leave the bases loaded.

Bottom 2 (sorry, I got distracted)

* Dioner "Bandwagon" Navarro goes down swinging on a high fastball.

* Gabe Gross - one of those role-players that the Rays have been very good at utilizing - up next. Huh... apparently he's from Baltimore. I just became a slightly bigger Gabe Gross fan. Unfortunately he swings and misses a change-up for strike three.

* Jason Bartlett - the shortstop acquired in the Delmon Young - Matt Garza trade - was named the Rays MVP this year. It was largely a symbolic pick as Bartlett represented the vastly improved Rays defense. The thing is, Bartlett isn't even close to being the MVP of the left side of the Rays' infield. Still a solid player though. He pops out to Youk at third, and the game stays scoreless through two.

Top 3

* Jason Varitek out on strikes.

* Ellsbury pops out to short on the first pitch.

* As does Pedroia. Shields looking good.

Bottom 3

* Pena draws a two-out walk.

* Longoria whiffs on a high fastball for his second strike-out.

Top 4

* Youk lines a one-out single to left-center. He may not be the Greek God of Walks with the bat, but combined with his defense at both the infield corners, he's a valuable player.

* JD Drew grounds into a double play. Go Rays!

Bottom 4

* 1-2-3 go the Rays (that's not what I meant guys). Daisuke has 7 K's now. Quite the pitcher's duel going on.

Top 5

* With no outs and a runner on first, Mark Kotsay checks his swing but ends up at second with a double as the ball went down the left-field line.

* Jed Lowrie flies out to right, but Jason Bay (who had walked) comes in to score to give Boston a 1-0 lead.

* The Rays bring the infield in with Kotsay at third. Varitek hits it hard, but Iwamura is able to stop it at second and throw him out without the runner scoring.

* Ellsbury bloops one into short center, but Bartlett is there to make a nice over-the-shoulder catch. MVP...MVP...MVP

Bottom 5

* Another perfect inning for Matsuzaka.

Top 6

* Pedroia grounds to Longoria at third, with Pena making a nice pick at the other end.

* Shields K's Ortiz and then gets Youkilis to keep it at 1-0.

Bottom 6

* Yet another perfect inning. No-hitter still going.

Top 7

* Sox get two on with no outs, but a couple of pop-ups with a K in-between gets Shields out of it. Rays need some offense.

Bottom 7

* Crawford lines the first pitch into right for a clean single.

* Cliff Floyd follows that up with a single to left-center. Crawford flies around second and ends up at third easily.

* Navarro flies to left, but it's not deep enough for Crawford to score.

* Gross works the count full but strikes out on what would have probably been ball four.

* Bartlett grounds out and the opportunity is squandered.

Top 8

* Shields gives up a one-out single to Pedroia and lefty JP Howell will come in to face Ortiz.

* Pedroia steals second and Ortiz walks. Tampa Bay needs to keep it 1-0.

* Youk lines a pitch into left. Crawford slides but the ball goes off his glove and a run scores. Not looking good.

* Grant Balfour in... way in, as he drills JD Drew in the shoulder (very close to his head) with his first pitch. Balfour isn't exactly a control specialist.

* Bases loaded for Bay. Balfour throws the fastball by him for the second out.

* Kotsay pops out, and the Rays have two innings to score at least two runs.

Bottom 8

* Iwamura pokes one through the left side for a lead-off single.

* Passed ball allows Iwamura to take second. Upton smokes it to third where Youk makes a diving stop. The ball knocks off his glove a little and he can't get to it in-time, and Upton is safe at first. That will end Daisuke's day - he pitched very well, but the Rays are threatening.

* Hideki Okajima in to face Pena. 3-0 count and Pena flies out to right. It looked like he got a good bit of it, but the ball was off the end of the bat a little.

* Rookie right-hander Justin Masterson relives Okajima. His sinker gets Longoria to ground into a double play. Still 2-0.

Top 9

* Balfour and David Price combine to pitch a perfect ninth.

Bottom 9

* Jon Papelbon in for the save. He strikes Crawford out swinging for the first out.

* Cliff Floyd pops up to Youk; two outs.

* Navarro goes down swinging to end the game.

Despite a well pitched game by Shields, the Red Sox go up one game to none behind an even better performance from Matsuzaka. Read more ...

O's-Red Sox, Spoiled Returns

Fresh of getting swept by the Rays, the O's head to Fenway Park to face the Red Sox. Being in the AL East is just unfair. Boston is getting ready to head to the playoffs, while the Orioles are just waiting for the season to be over.

* Very nice to see Adam Jones back. Even nicer to see him flashing some power, hitting a solo home run over the Green Monster to give the Birds a 1-0 first inning lead.

* It's nice to see Garrett Olson back as well. He needs to trust his stuff a little more and not nibble so much. He doesn't in the bottom of the first and walks the bases loaded before getting out of it by striking Jed Lowrie out swinging.

* Not so lucky in the bottom of the second; Olson gives up back-to-back homers to Jason Varitek and Jeff Bailey as Boston takes a 2-1 lead. He did look good striking Coco Crisp out swinging on a down and in breaking-ball right after the two homers, though.

* Juan Castro ties things up at 2-2 with the game's fourth solo home run. Apparently Jones' plate discipline hasn't improved in his time off, as Paul Byrd gets him to chase a pitch way out of the zone.

* 1-2-3 third for Olson. The guy may not have plus stuff, but he had a strong K rate in the minors and enough of that should translate (if he doesn't change the way he pitches) to allow him to be successful at the major league level.

* I was a bit surprised that Andy MacPhail didn't pull off any other waiver wire deals. I thought that Jay Payton or Kevin Millar might be useful bench players for some contender, or that a team might look to upgrade their line-ups for the stretch-run with Aubrey Huff or a pre-injury Melvin Mora. Oh well.

* After a single by Castro to lead-off the sixth, Roberts sacrifices him to second. One of the O's best hitters purposefully makes an out in a game on the road. Dave Trembley, please stop doing those kinds of things - they are dumb. Nick Markakis (with two outs) ends up bringing Castro in with a bullet up the middle. The run was credited to the sac bunt, but maybe both Castro and Roberts would have scored if Brian had been allowed to swing away (say, if he doubled - like he's done a league-leading 46 times this year). A Huff double and a walk by Ramon loads the bases for Luke Scott. Scott flies out and leaves three stranded. The O's played for one run and that's all they got. If Roberts doesn't give away an out maybe they're up by three or four instead of just one. I guess Trembley has faith that his pitching staff will hold the Sox to two runs. (Yes, that was sarcasm.)

* Back-to-back doubles by Bay and Lowrie gets that run right back. A bloop single by Crisp makes it 4-3 Boston. An infield single by Ellsbury loads the bases and knocks Olson from the game. All things considered, I think he pitched pretty well. Unfortunately, he didn't get a chance to get out of this jam. The season is already lost - find out what the kid is made of. Pedrioa singles off of Dennis Sarfate to make it 6-3. The Red Sox didn't give away outs to play for one run, and they had a big inning - one that effectively puts the game away.

* Kevin Millar hits a high flyball that just goes over the Monster for another home run.

* Jim Miller makes his ML debut in the eighth. After a one-out single by Pedrioa, Miller intentionally walks Ortiz. He gets Youkilis to ground back to the mound, but Miller has it bounce off his glove and everybody's safe. He strikes-out Bay, but walks Lowrie to force in a run. Radnor Bierd comes in to end the inning by getting Varitek to groundout. Miller did a pretty good job, showing a low 90's fastball and two breaking-balls - a hard slider and a slower curve. As with most O's pitchers, control is the main issue with him.

* Two-out singles in the top of the ninth by Millar and Payton brings the tying run to the plate in the form of pinch-hitter Oscar Salazar. After a nice at-bat, Salazar grounds out to end the game.

The O's lose 7-4. A season without an August/September collapse by the team would be nice. Read more ...

Manny Being Traded

What a crazy, crazy day of Manny Ramirez rumors.

I'll skip to the big one, which was a three-team deal.

Boston got:

Jason Bay (from Pittsburgh)

Pittsburgh got:

Jeremy Hermida (from Florida)
OK prospects (from Florida and Boston)

Florida got:

Manny Ramirez (from Boston) + cash
lesser prospects (from Boston and/or Pittsburgh)

This seemed like a pretty bad deal for the Marlins, so I'm glad it didn't go down.

That didn't mean that the Pirates and the Red Sox gave up though. They worked right up until the deadline to get something done. It was still a three-team deal, but the third team changed.

Boston got:

(from PIT) Jason Bay, 29 year-old LF, hitting .282/.375/.519 this year. He has a team option at $7.5 MM for 2009.

Pittsburgh got:

(from BOS) Craig Hansen, 24 year-old RHRP, 5.58 ERA in 30 IP this year, with 25 K's, 23 BB's, and a 1.70 WHIP. He's making $0.7 MM through the end of this year. He doesn't have a full year of ML experience, so I don't know what happens to him.

Brandon Moss, 24 year-old OF, hitting .295/.337/.462 this year in limited time. He's in his first ML season.

(from LAD) Andy LaRoche , 24 year-old 3B, hitting .293/.452/.439 in Triple-A this year. He's still a rookie.

Bryan Morris, 21 year-old RHP, 3.20 ERA in 81.2 IP in A-Ball, with 72 K's, 31 BB's, and a 1.29 WHIP.

Los Angeles got:

(from BOS) Manny Ramirez, 36 year-old LF, hitting .299/.398/.529 this year. He's making $20 MM this year and has club options at $20 MM for the next two years.

The Red Sox came out pretty well, as they not only showed that no one player is more important than the team, but they picked up a player in Bay who (when including defense) is worth about as much as Manny to the team. Plus, they have control of him at a very cheap rate for 2009. Neither Hansen nor Moss is worth that much to a team like Boston, as they are just back-ups and filler.

The Dodgers finally set LaRoche free, uniting him with his big brother (Adam) in the Steel City. LA already had a pretty large set of outfielders, so Joe Torre will have to pick and choose from Manny, Matt Kemp, Andre Eithier, Andruw Jones, and Juan Pierre (sorry Matt and Andre, you're not "veterans"). I don't know if this will be enough to catch Arizona, but it does improve the team (probably) by around a win. On the plus side, Boston is picking up the rest of Manny's contract for 2008, and he has agreed to decline arbitration (so LA will get two draft-picks) and the team options were removed. Not great, but not bad.

Pittsburgh didn't get three top prospects, but six years of Andy LaRoche is probably going to be more valuable than 1 1/3 years of Bay. Hansen and (particularly) Morris are live arms, and Moss should be a serviceable (and cheap) outfielder. Also, it was interesting that it seemed for a time that a deal had been done to send Bay to Tampa in return for a couple of prospects. Nice job by Neal Huntington to play the two AL East contenders off of each other. Looks like things are turning around for the Pirates. Read more ...

Injured Papi

Hey, remember when David Ortiz hurt his wrist on that Dennis Sarfate pitch? Now, I bet the Sox would have rather lost that game via forfeit instead of having to play it. Instead, they'll lose their slugging DH for at least a month, and possibly the rest of the season. I don't remember if this is exactly right (I'm writing this from memory and don't feel like taking 3 seconds to do a google search - ah, the freedom from responsibility of blogging) but I believe the sheath of the tendon is damaged, and that this type of injury can be quite serious long-term. It's the same kind of thing that turned Nomar from a future Hall of Famer into the guy taking Andy LaRoche's spot in LA. The Sox have a number of options at this point: they could use The Mayor (Sean Casey) as the DH; they could shift Manny to DH and play with a very good defensive outfield (Ellsbury, Crisp, and Drew), which is OK because they don't really need the extra offense; or they could see if there is some left-handed slugger with power and good plate discipline who's knees make it preferable that he DH "freely" available... you know, like Scott Hatteberg.

In any case, this might be the type of thing that actually allows the Rays to win this division. That is so crazy, I can't believe I just typed it. I picked Tampa Bay to finish under .500 (barely) because I couldn't bring myself to accept that they would have such a huge turnaround. Based on talent, I probably would have had to say 85 wins or so, and they still may beat that by a good bit. It's a shame that they still aren't getting much of a turnout for their games - if I lived down there I would go every chance I got. Read more ...

O's-Red Sox, MannyBeingManny

Garrett Olson will try to bring the O's back after the tough loss against the major's most recent no-hit pitcher, Jon Lester. A couple of years ago, it was Olson as the lefty most likely to have success in the majors.

Olson doesn't get off to a good start, walking Ellsbury on four pitches. Once again, an O's pitcher makes an errant pick-off throw, allowing Jacoby to go to second. Millar is good at picking the ball at first, but he doesn't handle those throws over from the pitcher very well. Ellsbury then steals third, as Ortiz goes down looking for the second out. Manny hits one deep to left, but Payton is there short of the warning track and makes the catch. Despite Jacoby's antics on the base-paths, the Sox don't score.

Nick, batting second today, line a grounder up the middle, but Pedroia makes a sliding catch and throws him out. The O's go down in order in the first.

Olson strikes Youkilis out on three pitches, getting him swinging at a breaking-ball down and in. Varitek doubles past a diving Jones in center - Adam wasn't really close to it, but I like the effort. Olson gets Crisp swinging to end it though. I find it interesting that Garrett has been able to maintain the solid strike-out rate he had in the minors (well, it's down from 9.25 to 7.04 per nine, but that's still above average) considering his general lack of "stuff". If he can get his walks down a little than he can be a viable #4 starter.

Millar draws a lead-off walk, and advances to second on a passed ball. You know that means that the ball rolled pretty far away from the catcher. Huff strikes out swinging at a breaking-ball. Ramon hits one hard (again - 23.5 line-drive %) and it gets through to left for a single. Millar is held at third, but that's OK since Jay Payton beats out an infield single to bring him in. The O's take the early lead, 1-0. Adam Jones grounds one sharply up the middle to score Razor and make it 2-0.
Cintron also hits a grounder, but his goes to Lowell at third who starts the inning-ending double play.

Olson gets his fourth K, again using that down and in breaking-ball to strike Lugo out swinging. Ellsbury is victim number five, going down looking at a fastball just off the outside corner. Boy, does Pedroia swing hard for a little guy. He gets a change-up down in the zone and rockets it out to left. 2-1, Orioles now. Then Ortiz send one out to center. Jones made an attempt at it, but it went just past his glove. That quickly, the game is tied. Garrett gets Manny to ground out to third to end the inning.

Markakis gets a gift double, as Manny can't get to a pop-up down the left-field line.
He is left stranded however.

Payton robs Mike Lowell of extra bases with a sliding grab in left. Youk grounds to Cintron at short, who's throw pulls Millar off the bag at first. That's the second O's error today. Red Sox can't take advantage though. Nice job by Olson to pick up his defense, though usually it works the other way around.

Huff gets a gift double, as Manny can't get to a pop-up down the left-field line. Huh... that sounds familiar. He is left stranded however. I think I see a pattern here.

Melvin flashing some leather, robbing Lugo of a hit with a diving stop and throw to first. Jim Palmer has made some interesting notes about Mora's throwing; that when he has time he thinks about the runner too much and sometimes makes weak throws, but when he dives to get a ball, he doesn't think and makes a strong throw. I've never noticed if that's true, but I will keep an eye on it now. Ellsbury draws his second walk of the day. Then he steals second just ahead of Razor's throw. And then third. That's 26 on the year for Jacoby. Olson is able to get Ortiz to end the inning.

Brian Roberts hits one out to left field to give the O's the 3-2 lead. Nick follows that up with his second double of the day, but this one was no cheapie - he lines it to the left-center gap. Millar draws a four-pitch walk to put a couple on with two outs. Huff works the count full, and then he walks. The bases are loaded for Ramon. With the way he has been going with runners in scoring position, I'm going to assume that he doesn't come through. Yup, he sure doesn't. He strikes out on three pitches. Way to go there Razor.

Lance Cormier is in, so we can close the book on Olson. He had trouble with back-to-back hitters, but was very impressive otherwise - 5 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 5 K. Against a good Boston line-up, that should be a confidence booster. Olson only threw 89 pitches, but I don't think it's horrible call to take him out. Unless Cormier gets bombed - then it's a bad idea. (Actually, with the bullpen being spent yesterday, I would have stretched Olson for another inning - he didn't have a very tough fifth.) After getting Manny, Lance hits Lowell with a pitch. A balk moves him to second, and then a Youk single puts runners on the corners. Varitek singles in front of Payton to tie the score at 3-3. Lugo bloops one into short right-field, but Roberts makes a leaping catch to end the inning.

David Aardsma, the guy listed first alphabetically in baseball history, sets the O's down in order.

Ellsbury is so fast. Instead of just walking and stealing second and third, he just saves some time and hits a triple to right-center. With the infield in, Jacoby can't score on Pedroia's grounder - one out. Jamie Walker will come in to face David Ortiz. Walker is able to retire him on a flyball to left, to Ellsbury comes in to score to give Boston the 4-3 lead. That's it for Jamie, as Chad Bradford will come in to face Manny. First pitch - home run. Manny Ramirez hits his 500th career home run, taking a middle-of-the-plate fastball to deep right-center (and then admiring it for a minute). It's really clear how many Sox fans there are, as there Yard is jumping with excitement. Congratulations to one of the best pure hitters in baseball history, but couldn't he have waited a couple of days? Bradford gets Lowell for the third out, but it's now 5-3 Red Sox. Chad almost never gives up the long-ball, so it's unexpected that he would be the one to surrender the homer.

Youkilis robs Nick of a hit with a nice diving play. Aardsma has another 1-2-3 inning.

Dennis Sarfate relieves Bradford now. He hits Youkilis with a 3-2 pitch. That's what you get for taking a hit away from Markakis. Varitek follows that with a single, with Youk going to third. Sarfate gets Crisp to ground into a double play, but that allows the runner to score to make it 6-3. The control problems continue, as eh walks Lugo. He gets Ellsbury to expand the zone, swinging and missing at a fastball outside for the K. Big hole to come back from tonight guys (though, to tell you the truth, I'm not feeling it).

Now Ramon gets a hit, with none on and two outs. That's all Okajima gives up in the inning, and we head to the ninth.

Pedroia hits a lead-off single, but Sarfate retires the next three batter. In doing so, he may have injured David Ortiz, who had to leave the game in the middle of an at bat after fouling off a fastball. [Ortiz is day-to-day with a wrist sprain.]

Adam Jones strikes out swinging against Jon Papelbon to start the ninth. Luke Scott, hitting for Cintron, singles through an infield shift to give the O's some life. Roberts walks, and Nick Markakis is coming up as the potential tying run. Papelbon throws two pitches way out of the zone to Nick. 2-0 count... oh. Oh man. Nick hits one up the middle, but the shortstop is there to catch it and toss to second to double-up Scott. That's it, game over. A little anti-climactic, I would say.

The O's lose 6-3, and end the month of May with a 26-28 record. It's not bad (and better than could reasonably have been expected) but it's still enough to put them in the cellar of the AL East. Someone really needs to break up this division - it's not fair that 3-4 of the best teams in the league play in it and only one or two can make the playoffs. Trade the Blue Jays for Seattle. If the O's played the M's 19 times a year then that would go a long way to helping them contend. The East keeps the Boston - New York thing, as well as the excitement of the young Rays team. The Blue Jays are in Canada anyway, so who cares what division they play in? (That last part was a joke - I don't want any angry Canadians attacking me with their hockey sticks or lumberjack axes or whatnot.) Read more ...

O's-Red Sox, Dan The Man

Just that quickly, the O's have swept the Red Sox. It was only two games, but it still feels damn good. Daniel Cabrera saw some of the expected regression in his BABIP, giving up 10 hits in 7 innings. He didn't walk a batter however, and only gave up three runs (two on solo homers by Varitek and Lowell). It wasn't a great start by any means (he only struck out 3) but it was a solid one against a great line-up. It looked like it was going to go to waste, as Jon Lester pitched very well for Boston (6 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 K), but the bullpen let them down.

Trailing 3-2 in the bottom of the seventh, the O's were set to face lefty reliever Javier Lopez. Lopez got two quick outs, but Dustin Pedrioa couldn't make a play on a Freddie Bynum grounder to second, and he was on with an infield single. Righty Craig Hansen came in to face Guillermo Quiroz (playing for the hurt Ramon Hernandez) but gave up a single (hey, the O's finally have a decent back-up catcher!) and then walked Brian Roberts to load the bases. This was easily the most important situation in the game - a time when a team would really benefit from having a "relief ace" instead of a closer. Brad Mills (in there for Terry Francona) obviously didn't want to leave Hansen in there, but instead of bringing in his best pitcher (Papelbon) he went to his second best pitcher (Hideki Okajima). The problem with that is; Jay Payton is at a point in his career where he can pretty much only do one thing, and that's hit lefties. He can't hit for average or get on base (against anybody), but bring a lefty in there and he'll hit one hard once in a while. It was a favor to the O's to make this move, and Payton took advantage. His grandslam gave the O's a 6-3 lead which they didn't relinquish (Matt Albers was great in the eighth, setting down the Sox 1-2-3 on seven pitches, and George Sherrill had his usual exciting ninth, giving up a couple hits but no runs).

That makes it back-to-back games in which the team has come back from 3-0 deficits to beat their "division rivals" (I honestly don't think the Red Sox think of themselves as rivals for the O's). Exciting times in Baltimore. They may not be the Rays, but the Orioles have won 5 out of 6 and at 21-19 are in third place (just 2 back of those former Devils) in the AL East. It is still early, but the Birds are 6 games ahead of the Mariners. How many people saw that one coming?

[Edit: I went back and actually watched the game. Daniel looked great, though I would have preferred he throw a few more off-speed pitches. He made two mistakes, and they were both hit over the fence. The other hits he gave up were largely not his fault (a few infield hits and a ball hit past a fielder on a hit-and-run). The number of groundballs he got was great. A lot has been made of his low BABIP - that it was due for a major regression and his ERA would suffer because of it - but Daniel has kept line-drives down so much (13%) that his BABIP isn't far out of line (.240 instead of .250). He is getting a lot of weak contact and so if the walks stay down he should be able to minimize baserunners. I'm just waiting for an up-tick in K's, but if everything else is there that's not such a big deal. In conclusion, Daniel Cabrera is kinda' turning into "The Man".] Read more ...

So Many Arms, So Little Time

Apparently, the Orioles are doing some scouting of Bryan Corey, a Red Sox reliever. If he's released by Boston then he might me an interesting arm to bring aboard. Even though he is 34 years old, he was very effective in AAA last year: 2.6 BB/9, 8.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9. It does appear to be in a pitcher's league, though not in too much of a pitcher's park. A low 90s fastball and a quality change-up allow Corey to be effective against left-handed hitters. The O's bullpen is already pretty full, so I don't know where he would fit in. If he would accept playing in AAA for a while then I think it wouldn't hurt anything to take a flyer on him. At least it further shows that MacPhail knows how to build a pen. Read more ...