O's Bring Out Brooms In Exciting Fashion Against Jays

Earlier this year the O's went up to Toronto and got swept. This week they returned the favor.

Game one was all about Jeremy Guthrie (hopefully) getting back on track with his 7 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K performance. Brian Roberts double and tripled - and scored twice - as the O's went on to win 4-1.

Game two was the major league debut of 25 year-old right-hander Jason Berken, who picked up the win in pitching 5 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 3 K. His Pitch/FX from FanGraphs:


He threw harder than I would have expected with an average fastball velocity of 92.2 mph. It was about average movement wise, though had a little extra sink. Those blue dots (FT) are pitches classified as two-seamers, though they appear to mostly be slightly slower fastballs (90.8 mph). Berken threw a good number of change-ups, and they had slightly above average movement as well (running in on right-handed batters). It looks like he has two breaking-balls; a slightly harder slider that moves more side-to-side and a slightly slower curveball with below average movement. He seemed to mix his pitches pretty well (threw at least 7 of each) and pounded the zone (60% of his pitches, and 66.7% of first pitches were strikes).

Berken was never a big strike-out guy, but he showed good control in the minors (2.1 BB/9 this year in Triple-A, 2.35 BB/9 last year in Double-A) and avoided the home run ball (0.35 HR/9 and 0.56 HR/9), which lead to good FIP numbers (3.16 and 3.23). Looks like a potentially decent #5 starter to me.

The O's offense backed Berken up with Huff, Jones, and Reimold all going yard, leading to a 7-2 victory.

Game three was an exciting one, and I was there to see it. It didn't look good with Roy Halladay on the hill for the Jays, but the O's didn't give up.

Rich Hill was the Baltimore starter, and he just didn't have his command at all today. The six-run fourth really did him in, as he was only able to go 3.1 IP with 6 H, 7 R (6 ER), 3 BB, 3 K. Things looked pretty bleak as Doc Halladay was solid after giving up a two-run homer to Luke Scott in the second (welcome back off the DL, Luke), and the Jays lead 8-3 going into the eighth.

With 102 pitches thrown in the game, Toronto went to Jesse Carlson from their pretty good pen. Single-single-walk loaded the bases for Felix Pie (who already had a hit on the day and threw a runner out at the plate in the first). Since Carlson is a lefty, Dave Trembley went to his bench for pinch-hitter Nolan Reimold, who promptly struck out on three pitches. Chad Moeller - possibly making his last start for the O's with the Friday arrival of Matt Wieters - was plunked to force in a run. Robert Andino picked up his fourth hit of the day (!) with an RBI single. (That ended Carlson's lousy day.) Closer Scott Downs came in and gave up a sac fly to Brian Roberts. And then an RBI single to Adam Jones (which was his third hit of the day, though the first two may have been due to a freindly scorer). 8-7 now, with a struggling Nick Markakis coming to the plate. And in the clutch situation, Nick came through with a double to right to tie the game. Unfortuantely Jones was easily thrown out at home on the play (Alex Rios has quite an arm). Halladay leaves, and the O's put up 5 to tie things up. Bet someone's going to be questioning that decision.

The O's threatened in the ninth, but Reimold and pinch-hitter Gregg Zaun both struck out with two on and one out. To extra innings!

Danys Baez came out for his third inning in the 11th after a pair fo quick three-up three-down frames, and was tagged by a two-run homer by Aaron Hill. O's down 10-8, and former Bird BJ Ryan coming out for the save opportunity.

Markakis greeted him with a single, and after a Huff pop-out Ryan (who was only throwing 84-86) was removed from the game. Melvin Mora singled off of new pitcher Brian Wolfe, and then Luke Scott did the same to drive in a run. With runners on the corners and one out, Nolan Reimold came up after having already K'ed twice to leave 5 men on base. 1-1 count... line-drive to deep left, and it's into the first row of seats. Three-run homer, and the O's win 12-10! You know what that means...

Read more ...

The Beast & The Least Of The East

Continuing their off-season series, the BaseballAnalysts went through their AL East Preview by position, using a combination of projections systems.

C:
Navarro, D. - .267/.334/.389
Varitek, J. - .236/.328/.390
Posada, J. - .273/.366/.448
Barajas, R. - .243/.303/.392
Wieters, M. - .298/.382/.499

Matt Wieters has easily the best projection, being tops in BA (by 25 points over second place Jorge Posada), OBP (16 over Posada again), and SLG (51 over Posada, again). Even my .289/.359/.482 line would make him better with the bat than the other catchers (though Posada’s .366 OBP would be tops in that category).

Pete: “I wonder how much we'll see of Matt Wieters. It doesn't make much sense for Baltimore to start his clock yet.”

Sully: “Wieters in the Minors would be an absolute mockery. After he wins the MVP this season, I fully expect him to fix Healthcare and restore economic prosperity in America.”

Idea... Matt Wieters Facts. Thanks, Sully.

Gregg Zaun’s .241/.340/.374 line actually compares pretty favorably to the other non-Posada catchers.

1B:
Pena, C. - .254/.370/.500
Youkilis, K. - .283/.377/.474
Teixeira, M. - .290/.383/.525
Overbay, L. - .265/.343/.419
Huff, A. - .279/.340/.471

At least Huff is a better hitter than Overbay.

2B:
Iwamura, A. - .270/.346/.389
Pedroia, D. - .307/.368/.456
Cano, R. - .292/.331/.450
Hill, A. - .277/.334/.408
Roberts, B. - .282/.359/.424

I’d like to see how Roberts would rank in this group with the bat if Pedroia didn’t play half is games at Fenway.

3B:
Longoria, E. - .273/.347/.499
Lowell, M. - .275/.336/.444
Rodriguez, A. - .291/.387/.548
Rolen, S. - .263/.342/.434
Mora, M. - .271/.337/.431

Oh, Melvin. With his injury, does A-Rod drop behind Longoria this year?

Marc:” I'm betting 2009 is the year Mora plays like he's 37 years old.”

I had the thought yesterday that maybe Melvin has the reverse problem of a lot of Latin American players (like Tejada) and that he’s really a couple of years younger than we think. That would match up better with his career arc (peak at 29-30 instead of 32-33), and Mora is enough of a space-cadet on the field (and I mean that in the nicest possible way) that I wouldn’t be completely surprised if it turned out to be the case. I’m not saying it’s true, I’m just sayin’ there’s a chance. And it would be really funny.

SS:
Bartlett, J. - .274/.332/.366
Lowrie, J. - .265/.346/.410
Jeter, D. - .299/.367/.419
McDonald, J. - .231/.278/.312
Izturis, C. - .259/.310/.325

Izturis obviously can’t hit very well, but he doesn’t look that horrible in this group. Imagine if he was in the NL East with Hanley, Rollins, Reyes, Escobar, and Guzman.

Marc: “Cesar Izturis should impress defensively in Baltimore but his offense will be abysmal.”

Sully: “With defense factored, will Lowrie be better than Jeter this season?”

Now that is a very interesting question.

LF:
Crawford, C. - .291/.334/.433
Bay, J. - .272/.364/.487
Damon, J. - .279/.352/.423
Lind, A. - .281/.330/.458
Pie, F. - .263/.317/.410

Everyone knows Pie is a project going into the season.

Marc: “Generally speaking, I am really looking forward to watching the young outfield in Baltimore play, with Felix Pie, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis included. Pie was a steal from Chicago and, if motivated, could be just as good as the other two players.”

CF:
Upton, B. - .279/.376/.432
Ellsbury, J. - .293/.350/.415
Gardner, B. - .260/.342/.359
Wells, V. - .274/.329/.457
Jones, A. - .274/.324/.420

The Bossman is #1 (and should be even better than that line), but Jones may find himself in the second spot with even a mild break-out.

RF:
Joyce, M. - .247/.324/.448
Drew, J. - .270/.381/.460
Nady, X. - .278/.332/.462
Rios, A. - .285/.338/.459
Markakis, N. - .297/.378/.477

Replace that Markakis line with my .301/.401/.493 and it’s not even close. I mean, it’s close as it is but he’s still at the top. With A-Rod hurt, Nick might actually be the third best hitter in the AL East next year (after Teixeira and Ortiz).

DH:
Burrell, P. - .245/.368/.464
Ortiz, D. - .281/.387/.543
Matsui, H. - .279/.358/.442
Snider, T. - .262/.330/.462
Scott, L. - .261/.343/.477

Luke holds up pretty well as the DH, considering he’s the only one of these guys that isn’t a minus (sometimes severely) on defense. He would have been second only to Bay in left.

Sully: “Give me the under on Papi and the over on Luke Scott.”

If that under for Ortiz is correct and/or he gets hurt, and Tex has a slow first season in the Bronx, then I can easily see a certain Oriole being the best hitter in the division.

SP: Yeah, we know the O’s rotation sucks. They have an M. Waters putting up a 5.12 ERA. I don’t know who that is; I assume they meant Chris Waters (or maybe Matt Wieters will don an alter-ego and appear on the mound (he did close in college), sometimes pitching to himself – that sounds like on of those “Chuck Norris” type facts [Edit: addressed above]).

Sully: “Sort of like San Francisco's offense heading into last season, I am nothing short of astounded at how bad Baltimore's pitching looks. Of course San Fran wasn't the historically bad lineup I thought they would be so maybe there is hope for that O's staff.”

RP: They only went through the top three relievers for each team, but Sherrill, Ray, and Johnson came out as the worst group.

Bench: They don’t list players, but just discuss them. Every team is mentioned except the Orioles, who’ll have a pretty good one later in the year (Zaun, Wigginton, Freel, Util. player). Stupid (North & South) East Coast (Plus Canada) bias.

Awards:
Wieters got no votes for Rookie of the Year – probably because they don’t think he’ll spend enough time in the Bigs.

Sully: “AL MVP sleeper: Nick Markakis.”

If he wins the AL MVP it’ll be because the O’s at least made a run at the playoffs. And if the O’s are going to make a run at the playoffs, Nick is going to have to have a monster season.

Surprises:

Pete: “I think the Blue Jays could lose 90 games. They have a chance to be dreadful.”
Sully: “I am with Pete. Toronto is going to be horrendous.”

Both guys predicted the O’s to finish fourth. One year in last place and getting to fourth seems like a joyous event. I’ll gladly take it, and it may be becoming more likely than not that that’s how it shakes out (though some Toronto fans let them have it in the comments section). Read more ...

O's-Blue Jays, Tied For Last

The O's of the last ten years are back - poor starting pitching; good starting pitching and the bullpen imploding; defensive miscues; lack of timely hitting; giving away leads; poor baserunning.

July 8th: O's - 6, Jays - 7

The Good: Aubrey Huff homered in helping the team build a 6-2 lead going into the bottom of the seventh.

The Bad: Daniel Cabrera walked 4 and gave up 4 runs on 6 hits to give back part of the lead; Dennis Sarfate walked a pair and gave up 2 runs while only getting one out to erase the remainder of the lead; with the game tied in the bottom of the ninth, Ramon made a throwing error on a steal attempt by Alex Rios and Freddie Bynum (in at short after Fahey was pinch hit for) let a ball go through his legs allowing Rios to score the winning run - JJ was charged with the loss, despite not pitching terribly (he did walk two though).

July 9th: O's - 8, Jays - 9

The Good: After falling behind 8-1, the offense stormed all the way back to make it 8-7 with a six run sixth capped by an Adam Jones three-run homer (just his fifth of the year); down 9-7 in the ninth, Nick Markakis hit a two-out 3-2 pitch out to deep center off of BJ Ryan - the O's didn't complete the comeback, but it was a nice hit.

The Bad: Garrett Olson got lit up for 7 in the fourth after pitching three scoreless innings; more bad baserunning as Roberts got picked off and later, with the O's down two, Aubrey Huff got "thrown out" at the plate when he didn't slide (replays appeared to show that Huff was never actually tagged, but he should have slid anyway).

July 10th: O's - 5, Jays - 6

The Good: Jeremy Guthrie was the stopper the O's needed, going seven innings and giving up just two runs (one earned) on four hits and a walk, with three K's; 5 runs on 9 hits isn't bad either - Nick extended his hitting streak to 17 games.

The Bad: Jim Johnson is seeing his luck even out - he gave up two runs to raise his ERA over 2 for the first time in a while; George Sherrill's mini-collapse continued as he couldn't hold the 5-4 lead in the ninth, giving up two runs on three hits and a walk; Roberts and Markakis got caught stealing / picked-off for the second and third outs of the fifth.

The Blue Jays sweep of the O's drops them to 44-46 and into a tie for last place in the AL East. I think it's entirely possible that they won't be over .500 again this year and, frankly, it may be a good things. This may encourage Andy to trade some players that he might have held on to if the team wasn't too far out of contention. If Huff, Millar, Sherrill, Roberts, and Payton are all traded for prospects and the O's only win 25 more games this year, then I'll actually be pretty happy. That doesn't make it any easier to watch the melt-downs though. Read more ...

No Elfs Needed

I've never, ever used this expression before, but when I read this, I threw up in my mouth a little bit.

"O's interested in Toronto's Eckstein"

Now, Eckstein does have a .360 OBP this year (along with a .348 SLG) but his defense is not good and he's making $4.5 million this year. I'm not saying that such a player wouldn't be an improvement for this team; I'm just saying that giving up resources to upgrade at shortstop for the rest of this year doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Plus, the "gritty/scrappy/he's only 5 feet tall" references would get tiring in about 3 seconds. That said; if they could get him for a bag of balls then I would learn to deal with it. Read more ...

O's-Jays, Fireworks In The Eighth

The O's (who have struggled in Toronto lately) send Brian Burres (who has struggled lately) to the mound against the Blue Jays (who have been playing well lately) and Shaun Marcum (who has pitched well lately). Is this a reverse-lock type situation?

Marcum starts the game out by striking out Brian Roberts. Nick Markakis gets another opposite field hit, but Mora grounds into an inning ending double play.

Burres is throwing strikes, and has a 1-2-3 first.

Hopefully not every inning will start this way, but Huff goes down swinging. Millar singles to center and Scott walks, to put a couple on for Adam Jones, who has been swinging a good bat the last few games. Jones flies out, and it'll take a clutch single from Razor. I wouldn't count on that. Groundout to short, inning over.

Scott Rolen (who looks really strange to me in a Jays uniform) hits a lead-off double. Kevin Mench (and here I'm obligated by sports-writing code to mention his giant head) flies out to center. Rolen tags and goes to third, with Jones' throw being off-line. Lyle Overbay fouls off a couple pitches and draws the walk. Rob Barajas follows that with a single to left-center to give the Jays an early 1-0 lead. Brad Wilkerson (formerly of the M's) singles up the middle to make it 2-0. I said earlier in the year that Burres is a long-man and not a starter. His good start notwithstanding, we appear to be seeing that now. Lilliputian David Eckstein gets a pitch in the middle of the plate and hits it deep to left, but Luke tracks it down. Shannon Stewart grounds to Mora to end the inning.

Guess they'll keep the pattern going, as Bynum strikes out to start the third. Roberts grounds out to his defensive counterpart. Kakes runs the counts full, and then takes a walk. He's left stranded as Mora pops out on the first pitch.

Alex Rios hits a one-out double off the wall in center-field. Then he steals third, sliding in ahead of Ramon's high throw. Rolen draws a walk to put runners on the corners for Mench. A flyball to center brings in Rios, and Jones' throw (which was off-line) went over the cut-off man and allowed Rolen to get to second. Lance Cormier is warming in the pen. Overbay grounds one hard up the middle, but Roberts makes the diving stop and throws him out. 3-0 Toronto, and that may be enough.

Huff breaks the streak, hitting a double to right. Millar flies out to Rios in center, but even with his strong arm Huff is able to get to third. Scott can't get the runner in from third with one out, as he pops it up. Jones waves at a pitch low and away, and the O's leave another runner on.

Eckstein hits a two-out double, but is left there.

After Ramon flies out, Bynum reaches first on a ball out in front of the mound. He gets caught trying to steal though, as Roberts swings and misses at what would have been ball four on a hit-and-run. Brian and Markakis get back-to-back singles, but Mora can't get them in.

After walking Scutaro and hitting Rolen, with a Rios K in between, Cormier will be coming in. He gets a groundball, and the double play gets them out of the inning. Still 3-0.

The Birds are retired in order by Marcum.

The Jays put another run on in the sixth with two singles, a steal, and a sac fly.

Cormier will leave two on with two out, and Dennis Sarfate is coming in. He is able to get Overbay to ground to second to end the inning.

Roberts starts the eighth with a double to left-center. Another hit for Markakis (he's 3-3 with a walk) drives in the first O's run. Toronto brought it a lefty to face him, and Nick lined the first pitch he saw right back up the middle. Melvin Mora! He hits one out to dead center-field, and we've got ourselves a ball-game. It's now just 4-3 Jays. Huff gets ahead 3-0, but pops the next pitch up. Former Orioles Armando Benetiz (who may have helped cost Mike Mussina the Hall of Fame by blowing what would have been his 20th win in... whatever year that was) is coming in. Kevin Millar! Right down the left-field line, and it's gone. 4-4. Luke Scott hits a grounder to short, and it goes right through his legs. Error for Eckstein, and the go-ahead run is on. Adam Jones!(!) Two-run shot. Boy did he put a good swing on that one. Now the O's lead 6-4. Thanks Armando... it brings back memories. Ramon strikes out looking on three pitches. Bynum K's too, but the three home run inning was awesome.

Chad Bradford is in for the eighth. Not a great start, as he walks Barajas. Wilkerson lays down a bunt back to Bradford, and beats it out. That means Eckstein is the potential go-ahead run. He squares to bunt, but Ramon misses the pitch allowing both runners to advance on the passed ball. Matt Stairs will pinch-hit now. Stairs grounds to first, with Millar making a nice sliding catch and throwing to Bradford at first for the out. A run scores though, to make it 6-5. Chad gets Rios to ground back to the mound. He throws to first to get the second out, and the runner stays at third. Scutaro grounds out to Mora, and Bradford gets out of it.

Another opposite-field hit for Nick, and this one's a double. He's 4-4 with a walk. Sign the man! Mora is getting the intentional pass with a lefty on the mound. That doesn't work as planned, as Huff draws a walk to load the bases. Shawn Camp comes in to face Millar, and gets an inning ending double play. It'll be George Sherrill time in the ninth.

Sherrill send Rios down swinging on a high fastball. One of the main differences between Rios and Markakis is the batting eye. Groundball to short - two out. Joe Joe Inlgett works the count full and walks to put the tying run on. Overbay goes down swinging to end the ballgame.

What a great comeback for the O's. They have been hitting with power and it came through again today in the eighth. That moves the O's back to .500 at 30-30.

I think this calls for a look at the Win Probability graph, while watching them play the Orioles Magic video on TV.



For Jays fans that goes:
"woo... wooo... Wooo... WOO... WOOOO... AWWWW!... eh?... Awww".

Magic, magic, magic, magic, Orioles Magic... feel it happen! Read more ...

At Least Canada Has Universal Health Care

The Toronto Blue Jays' chances in the AL East having really taken some hits recently. They've lost Frank Thomas (by their own choosing), shortstops David Eckstein and John McDonald to injury (on the same day, no less), and now it's Vernon Wells and Jeremy Accardo. Wells has a broken wrist and will be out 6-8 weeks, while Accardo (the back-up closer) is also on the DL with right forearm tightness. The Jays do have a lot of pitching, but it's hard to win when that's all there is(especially in the East). This is, of course, great news for the Orioles, as far as potential standings go. If the O's are going to finish above last, then another team is going to have to take an unexpected fall - that may be what happens to Toronto. Read more ...

Bad Managing

Post #2 in the set "Imagine How Mad I'd Be If He Was The O's Manager." The Toronto Blue Jays are in last place in the AL East. With this kind of managing, I'm not surprised. (Hat-tip to Joe Posnanski, one of the best sports writer around)

"I’ve never seen a more offensive walk than Friday night. Never. Toronto trailed the Royals 5-4 in the eighth inning. The Blue Jays trailed 5-4 because that gutty shortostop David Eckstein dropped a double-play throw from the pitcher. No matter. They trailed 5-4, and the Royals had runners on second and third, and there was still one out, and Tony Pena Jr. was at the plate. I mentioned this in the last blog post, I believe — I like Tony Pena a lot. Great kid. Got a lot of the energy and joy for baseball his old man has. And he’s a terrific fielder. And he’s smart enough to adjust, at least I think so. But facts is facts: Tony Pena Jr., at this moment and time, is the worst everyday Major League hitter I’ve ever seen. I mean the worst. There are numbers to back this up — .148/.172/.164 would be three of those numbers — but this is truly a case where seeing is believing. His swing is now longer than the Bill Clinton autobiography. He starts it on a Tuesday, it ends on a Thursday. It lasts longer than that ”Deal or No Deal“ show. It’s a long, long swing.

And with that sort of swing, he’s an out. That’s all. An automatic out. Every so often when a pitcher lets his mind wander, Pena Jr. will fights off a bad pitch, bloop a hit the other way, but it is almost always a mistake pitch. I assume (and hope) that he will make those adjustments I mentioned, shorten the swing, punch a few balls into gaps, and all that. But right now, at this moment, if you don’t make a mistake to Tony Pena Jr., he’s out. Period.

And John Gibbons, after pitcher Scott Downs fell behind Pena 2-0 count, had him walked.

I’m just telling you … I’d have fired somebody. I’m just telling you that intentionally walking Tony Pena Jr. or any other light-hitting middle infielder hitting .150 would be a fireable offense on my team. I’d have that written on a clubhouse sign.

And Gibbons (or whoever) would tell me how the walk set up the double play, tell me how by walking Pena they got the lefty-lefty matchup they wanted, tell me that in that situation, down two balls, you HAVE to walk Pena because any major league hitter becomes dangerous ahead 2-0 in the count and blah blah blah. Thank you. Please have your desk cleared by 9 a.m. tomorrow morning.

In this case, the Baseball Gods were as offended as I was, and the next batter — David DeJesus — scoffed at the whole lefty-lefty thing and drilled a single that scored two runs. Then Alberto Callaspo hit a single that scored another. The Royals snapped their losing streak and won 8-4. It was just. It was right. I’m not an owner, and it’s good thing. All I can say is: I implore you, Canada. Somebody stop John Gibbons before he walks again."

The O's employed the intentional walk last week and it led to a big inning. There is a time and a place for it, but those situations are few and far between. I especially like when a team walks the bases loaded and leaves the pitcher in the game, and he can't find the zone and walks in the winning run. It's hard enough to locate well when you're in a groove, why would the manager assume the pitcher can do it effectively after intentionally changing their approach and throwing 4-8 pitches way outside? Toronto got what it deserved in that situation, and John Gibbons was in the hot seat to start the season - he should be gone pretty soon unless the Jays turn things around. Read more ...

Big Hurt Feelings

Frank Thomas has been released by the Toronto Blue Jays. This comes shortly after the Big Hurt was informed that he would not be playing regularly anymore. He's hitting 167 / 306 / 333 this year with 3 HR, which is the stated reason for his benching and then release - he's not hitting well and the team doesn't want to wait for him to get it together. Of course they won't say it, but I think that another big factor in the decision was that 300 or so more plate appearances this year would have vested his $10 million option for 2009, and I'm pretty sure the Jays don't want that to happen. After the benching, Thomas did some complaining about the situation (probably rightfully so) and so the team cut ties with him. I just hope that he doesn't sign with the Mariners, as he would give that team an offensive boost. Thomas was worth around 4 wins last year, while M's DH Jose Vidro was at 3, so that should be a bump of around one win for the team this year. There is a big difference between 84 and 85 wins for me, so I'm hoping he goes anywhere else. Read more ...