Ninth Inning Homers Fuel O's Comeback Win

In the first game of their series with the Phillies, the O's picked up a 7-2 win on the strength of a fortunate start by Rich Hill (only 2 runs in 6.2 IP despite 5 H and 4 BB, though he did K 5) and 2-for-4 games by Nick Markakis (plus a walk) and Nolan Reimold (including a HR).

Game two features a match-up of rookies, with lefty JA Happ going for Philadelphia and Brad Bergesen trying to continue his great stretch of pitching for the Birds. In his last four starts, Bergesen is 3-0 with 32 IP, 22 H, 6 R, 5 BB, 15 K, and has lowered his ERA from 5.49 to 3.79.

• The O's get two hits and two walks in the first inning, but can't get a runner across the plate.
• Two more hits but no runs again in the second. They keep getting runners on, they should score eventually.
• Adam Jones lays down a nice bunt single in the fifth. Didn't know he had that in his arsenal. Aubrey Huff follows that up with a double into the left-center gap to give the O's a 1-0 lead.
• Bergesen has movement on his sinker and good bite on the slider. The Phillies hitters can't seem to square up the ball very well or make solid contact.
  
• The O's extend the lead for him as Andino doubles and scores on a sac fly by Roberts in the sixth.
• I guess the Orioles are just going to slowly put runs on the board. They add another one in the seventh, as they load the bases with nobody out but can only get a single run forced in by a walk.
• A couple of doubles to start the Phillies seventh breaks up the shutout. A couple of singles then makes it 3-2. Bergesen was cruising along and just like that he's out of the game.
• Ryan Howard comes up as a pinch-hitter after Danys Baez got the second out of the inning and gives the Phillies the lead with a three-run home run. How did the wheels fall off so quickly?
• Gregg Zaun brings the O''s half-way back with a solo home run in the ninth against stand-in closer Ryan Madsen.
• Oscar Salazar hits a pinch-hit single through the right side.
• Brian Roberts - on an 1-2 pitch - takes Madsen deep to right. What a comeback for the O's, and they now have a 6-5 lead.
• George Sherrill pitches a perfect ninth to lock down the save.

Great win for the Orioles. Bergesen pitches six great inning before running into a wall in the seventh - he ended up being charged with 4 runs but a couple of those were actually allowed to score by Baez. The team shouldn't have even been in the situation to need the comeback in the ninth, since they totaled 21 baserunners for the game (16 hits, 5 walks) and yet managed only 6 runs (3 via the longball). Zaun went 3-4 (with the homer and a walk) and raised his batting average a full 17 points to .226. The O's have already guaranteed themselves a series win, and they go for the sweep tomorrow with Jeremy Guthrie on the hill. Read more ...

O's-Mets, Wieters Pied After Team Win

The Orioles had interest in signing Tim Redding in the off-season, but he decided to go to the Mets instead (he'll start for NY tonight). Well, Redding is currently sporting a 6.18 ERA (though with a 4.32 tRA, partially as a result of his flukey low HR rate) so I don't think any O's fans are feeling any regret there.

One pitcher the team did bring on board is Koji Uehara, and he has been even better than advertised. Koji was billed as having pin-point control, and thus far that's what he's displayed with a first-pitch strike 68.2% of the time. His 1.94 BB/9 is 12th in baseball amongst pitchers with at least 50 IP, and he's walked two or less batters in nine out of his ten starts thus far. Koji's been about average as far as K's go too, striking out 6.63 per nine. The big worry with Uehara was the home run ball, as he's a flyball pitcher (just 0.57 GB/FB this year) in Camden Yards. Well, Koji has managed to keep the ball in the park pretty OK thus far (0.97 HR/9), but that's with an unsustainably low 6.4% HR/FB. Once those flyball start to go over the fence, it's likely that his FIP (3.66) and tRA (3.17) will start to approach his ERA (4.37).

As far as stuff goes, Koji doesn't throw hard at all (just a little over 87 mph as his average fastball) and pretty much only uses two pitches - that riding fastball and a splitter at around 80-81 mph - which he throws a total of about 92% of the time (with around a 47% - 45% split between the two, at least according to FanGraph's Pitch/FX). Then he also mixes in a cutter, a curve, a slider, and a change-up. It's not a particularly impressive arsenal to watch, but its been getting the job done.

Don't think anyone's have any regrets about this decision either.

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Top 1:

• Alex Cora hits a soft liner to second.
• Very nice splitter gets Fernando Martinez swinging.
• Carlos Beltran flies out to center. Quick inning for Koji.

Bottom 1:

• Brain Roberts flies out to left.
• Adam Jones starts his bobblehead night with a nice plate appearance, culminating with a base on balls.
• Nick Markakis lines the first pitch he sees into right for a single.
• Aubrey Huff pulls a single through the right side to bring in Jones. O's have an early 1-0 lead. Haven't seen too many leads for the Birds in the last couple weeks.
• Melvin Mora swings at the first pitch he sees, and grounds into a double play. That strategy works better when you're actually a good hitter.

Top 2:

• David Wright pops out to first.
• Ryan Church hits a double into right-center field.
• Gary Sheffield fouls off several pitches, but Koji eventually gets him to chase a splitter in the dirt.
• Daniel Murphy singles down the left-field line to tie the game.
• Brian Schneider hits a check-swing roller to second, with Roberts throwing to first for the out.

Bottom 2:

• Luke Scott goes down swinging at a cut fastball.
• Nolan Reimold works a walk.
• Matt Wieters swings at the first pitch and hits a flyball to deep left-field... and it's GONE! That's the first of his career (and his first RBI too). Yaye, Matt!
• Robert Andino takes a fastball at the knees for strike three.
• Brian Roberts grounds out to second to end the inning.

Top 3:

• Fastball on the outside corner gets Luis Castillo looking.
• After fouling off a few pitches, Cora pulls a single into right-field.
• F-Mart flies out to center.
• Beltran singles just out of the reach of Reimold in left.
• Fastball gets Wright swinging to leave the runners stranded.

Bottom 3:

• Jones grounds out to third.
• Markakis falls behind 0-2, but lines an inside pitch into right for a single. Someone's looking better at the plate.
• Huff flies out to center.
• Mora pops up into short center-field, but Beltran is easily able to run it down. How does this guy (Carlos) get criticized so much in New York?
  

Top 4:

• Church lays down a bunt down the third-base line. With Mora playing way back, he doesn't even attempt a throw.
• Sheff pops up to third - Mora lets it drop on purpose and throws Church out at second. That leaves the slower runner on, though Sheffield is a better baserunner in general. Roberto Alomar used to do that kind of thing.
• Murphy singles into the left-center gap to put runners on the corners.
• Schneider hits a flyball to center, scoring Sheffield. The lead is cut to 3-2.
• Castillo grounds to short, with Andino flipping to second for the force.
  

Bottom 4:

• Scott flies out to center.
• Reimold grounds out to third.
• Looks like the HR scared Redding, since he walks Wieters on four pitches.
• Andino bounces out to short to end the inning.
  

Top 5:

• High fastball gets Cora swinging.
• F-Mart laces a ground-rule double into right-field.
• Beltran flies out to center.
• Wright pops out to short.
  

Bottom 5:

• With two outs, Markakis lines another single through the right side. Three-hit game for Nick, and all of them where hit hard. Then, just for kicks, he steals second.
  
• After falling behind Huff 3-0, Redding walks him intentionally.
• Mora grounds a single up the middle to score Markakis.
• Scott pops out to end the inning. O's now up 4-2.
  

Top 6:

• Brian Bass comes out for the sixth, even though Uehara has only thrown 89 pithes
• Church grounds out to second.
  
• Sheffield deep and gone to left. Inside fastball, and Sheff did what he's down so many times in his career - turn on it with authority.
• Murphy singles up the middle - he has three hits as well.
• Schneider grounds one up the middle to put two on with one out.
• Castillo walks to load the bases. Trembley has seen enough, and will bring in Mark Hendrickson.
• Cora walks to force in the tying run.
• Fernando Tatis - of two grandslams in one inning fame - comes off the bench to pinch-hit. No salamies tonight, as Tatis grounds into the inning ending double play.
  

Bottom 6:

• Reimold grounds to third, but hustles down the line and beats out the throw.
• Wieters gets ahead in the count 3-1, and hits a ball hard to center. Beltran is there to make the catch though, and Reimold - who was running - has to hurry back to first.
• Andino flies out to center against new pitcher Bobby Parnell.
• Roberts grounds out to second.
  

Top 7:

• Jim Johnson out for the seventh.
• Beltran grounds to second.
• 97 mph fastball running way in on Wright gets the K, as David can't check his swing. That ball started in the middle of the plate and ended up a few inches inside.
  
• Church flies out to left.
  

Bottom 7:

• Slider gets Jones looking, after he fouled off a couple 97-98 mph fastballs. I had no idea Parnell threw nearly that hard.
• Lefty Pedro Feliciano in for New York.
• Markakis hits a chopper up the middle that the shortstop can't get to. That makes four hits on the day for Nick.
• Huff gets a pitch middle-in and just unloads on it. Over the scoreboard it goes, and the O's have retaken the lead 6-4.
• Mora with a single through the middle.
• Scott is robbed of a hit by a diving Alex Cora at short, who back-hands the ball to second to force Mora.
• Brian Stokes comes in from the pen to get Reimold to pop-out.
  

Top 8:

• Sheffield singles up the middle.
• Murphy flies out to left.
• Nice change-up - at 89 - gets Schneider swinging.
• Castillo grounds out to short.
  

Bottom 8:

• Wieters flies out to center.
  
• Andino lines a single up the middle. A wild pitch during the next at bat allows him to go to second.
  
• Roberts flies out to pretty deep center-field.
• Jones grounds out to third.
  

Top 9:

• George Sherrill in for the save.
• Cora flies out to left.
• Tatis pulls a double right over the third-base bag.
• Beltran flies out to right.
• Wright flies out to center. Each of the outfielders gets some work as Sherrill closes things out.
  

Koji Uehara only went 5 innings, but he pitched well (7 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 5 K). Matt Wieters and Aubrey Huff each hit two-run homers, and Nick Markakis added his 4-4 day as the O's beat the Mets 6-4.
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O's Errors & Stranded Runners Result In Loss To Mets

By "head up to New York to play the Mets" (in the below post) I clearly meant "the Mets will come down to Baltimore". Or I would have, if I could read a schedule correctly.

Jeremy Guthrie will take the mound for the Birds against Mike Pelfrey. These two guys are a little connected for me, as when I was looking at Guthrie's low strike-out rate for a hard-thrower, Pelfrey came up as a guy who struck out even less guys despite a good (velocity-wise) fastball.

Well Pelfrey's heater is down this year (from 92.8 mph to 92.0), and his already mediocre strike-out rate has dropped along with it (4.93 K/9 to 3.86). His walks are up too (2.87 BB/9 to 3.31), and yet he's maintained a decent ERA of 4.68 (4.46 FIP, 5.12 tRA) by limiting the home run and keeping the ball on the ground (54.2% GB rate).

Jeremy Guthrie's fastball velocity has been amazingly consistent since even 2005 with the Indians, staying around 93.3 mph. His strike-out rate has rebounded a little from his early season struggles up to 5.77 K/9 - higher than last year's 5.66 but lower than 2007's 6.31. The walks are also better than 2008 (2.58 BB/9 to 2.74), but worse than 2007 (2.41). So why has his ERA ballooned from 3.70 and 3.63 all the way up to 5.52? It's not just the ERA's either - the FIPs have gone 4.41-4.53-5.70 and the tRAs 5.10-4.84-6.02. I think it may have something to do with the awful 1.96 HR/9 he's giving up. That's 44 HR over a 200 IP season, and even for a guy who gives up more longballs than average, that's not good.

Heath from Dempsey's Army took a look at why that may be, but couldn't find anything:

"After pouring over Pitch F/X data, pitch types, pitch sequence, the counts , his velocity, the types of hitters he's facing...everything I could think of. But there's no common denominator! They're launching home runs off of every kind of pitch he throw without discrimination. It doesn't happen when he's behind in the count. He velocity and control (at least, his walk rates and amount of strikes he throws) are consistent with his first two seasons."

May I posit a possible solution? Variation on balls in play + bad luck. He's giving up more flyballs than usual (43.6% FB rate, compared to 38% and 38.2% the last two years) and he's giving up more home runs per flyball than usual (14.7% HR/FB to 10.5% and 11.2% the last two years), and the combination of the two factors - which individually wouldn't be that damaging - have really caused some trouble. Looking at the rarely used by me (though very useful) HitTrackerOnline, the average distance of the home runs Jeremy has allowed this year is 391.8 ft with a "true" distance of 395.8 ft. Last year it was 397.8 ft and 400.1 "true" ft, and the year before it was 391.1 ft and 393.3 "true" ft. Don't think you can draw many conclusions from that, but at least he isn't getting consistently crushed. This will probably be a year where Jeremy gives up a whole bunch more home runs than usual, but from here on out there really isn't a good reason to think that he'll be too far away from his career 1.28 HR/9 numbers. And that should bring his various runs allowed metrics down, though he still isn't the best pitcher on this staff.

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Top 1:

• Nice start for Guthrie, as he strikes out Fernando Martinez swinging wiht a nice change-up as part of a 1-2-3 inning.
  

Bottom 1:

• Pelfrey counters with a perfect inning of his own.
  

Top 2:

• 94 mph fastball down and away gets David Wright swinging.
• Ryan Church flies out to center.
• Now Gary Sheffield goes down swinging at a nasty slider- that's 3 K's for Guts.
  

Bottom 2:

• Another three-up, three-down.
  

Top 3:

• Brian Schneider becomes the first base-runner of the game with a one-out walk.
• He's left stranded after making it to second though.
  

Bottom 3:

• No base-runner yet for the O's.
  

Top 4:

• F-Mart draws a lead-off walk to start the fourth.
• Carlos Beltran hits a double play ball to Brian Roberts, who can't get a handle on it and everyone is safe.
• David Wright singles to left to score a run, and Nolan Reimold's throw home was way off-line allowing Beltran to go to third.
• Church lines a single to left that Reimold plays on a bounce. Another run scores to make it 2-0.
• Sheffield lines a single to right to load the bases.
• Daniel Murphy flies out to right to bring in the third NY run.
• Schneider singles up the middle to extend the lead to 4-0.
• Luis Castillo grounds into a double play to finally end the inning.
  
• I'm not sure how many of those four runs are earned given the errors, but Guthrie left a lot of hittable balls over the plate in that one.
  

Bottom 4:

• Nick Markakis gives the O's their first man on base with a two-out single to left-field.
• Aubrey Huff flies out to the warning track in right-field to end the inning.
  

Top 5:

• Lead-off single by Cora, but he's left stranded.
  

Bottom 5:

• Reimold draws a two-out walk.
• Matt Wieters lines a low-and-away pitch into left for a single.
• Robert Andino walks on five pitches to load the bases for the top of the line-up.
• Roberts strikes out leave the three runner stranded. What a big out.
  

Top 6:

• Church strikes out swinging, but the ball gets away from Wieters allowing the runner to get to first.
• A pop-up and a double play end the inning.
  

Bottom 6:

• Adam Jones singles to center.
• Nick Markakis goes out and gets a change-up, pulling it over the scoreboard for a two-run homer. Nick the Stick might be back after his extendned funk.
• Huff pulls a single to right-field.
• Mora erases him though, by grounding into a double play.
• Luke Scott pulls a couple pitches just foul - including one that had home run distance - and ends up drawing a walk. That'll be it for Pelfrey, with Sean Green coming in from the pen.
• Reimold lines out to left. Still, the lead has been cut in half.
  

Top 7:

• A one-out single by Luis Castillo will be the end of the line for Guthrie. Alberto Castillo takes the mound.
• Alex Cora singles to right.
• F-Mart singles passed a diving Roberts to load the bases and drive Alberto from the game.
• Danys Baez will try to get a double play ball.
• Beltran grounds to first, with Huff throwing home to get the force. No throw to first, though.
• Baez falls behind Wright 3-0, but comes back to run the count full. Wright fouls a few pitches off, and then hits a pop-up down the line into short right-field. Huff ranges out and reaches over his shoulder, but drops the ball. Two runs score to make it 6-2. Damn.
• Church grounds out to end the inning.
  

Bottom 7:

• O's can't counter, going down in order.
  

Top 8:

• Two-out double by Schneider, but Baez spears a Castillo grounder up the middle for the third out.
  

Bottom 8:

• Another 1-2-3 inning.
  

Top 9:

• Matt Albers gives up a couple of singles but keeps the Mets off the board.
  

Bottom 9:

• Mora singles to right.
• Scott singles to right. Suddenly the O's have something going, and Fransisco Rodriguez will relieve Bobby Parnell.
• Very nice plate appearance by Reimold, taking pitches and fouling some off, and eventually drawing a walk.
• Four consecutive change-ups strike out Wieters swinging.
• Ty Wigginton pinch-hits for Andino. He has a good plate appearance - taking a close pitch for ball three and then barely checking his swing for ball four. The walk brings in the third Orioles run and Brian Roberts becomes the potential winning run at the plate.
• Roberts grounds to third, but the Mets can only get one out. Another run scores and now there are two outs.
• Mammoth cut at a fastball fro strike one. Swing and a miss at a nasty slider for strike two. Roberts steals second on a slider low for a ball. Fastball swung on and missed for strike three.
  

The O's tried to stage a comeback, but the missed opportunities early in the game on offense and the errors on defense (with an assist from Jeremy Guthrie throwing some meatballs) did them in. The O's lose game one of the series 6-4.
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O's-A's, I Thought Oakland Had A Bad Offense?

The O's got beaten pretty thoroughly yesterday (9-1) as the dropped their third game in a row. Jason Berken will try to get the Birds back on the right track against 21 year-old fellow rookie Trevor Cahill.

Here's Berken's movement chart from his last start against the Tigers (7 IP, 1 R, but took the loss) courtesy of FangGraphs:


Berken's fastball has been about average, coming in at 92 mph and showing only slightly below average movement in on right-handed batters (and exactly average vertical movement). He also has a two-seamer at 90.7 mph, that sinks more than the four-seamer but less than the average two-seamer. The change-up is also very average, when it comes to both velocity (82.5 mph vs. 82.7 mph as the average) and movement (-6.7 vs. -6.4 horizontally, and 5.3 vs. 5.0 vertically). He throws a couple of different breaking-balls at very similar speeds but with different movement. The slider is at 81.1 mph with above-average break (4.2 vs. 2.4 as the average horizontally, so it moves more away from righties than average, and 0.2 vs. 2.2 vertically, so it drops more than average). That might explain why the slider has been his most effective pitches thus far going by linear weights (2.86 runs above average per 100 sliders thrown: the fastball is -0.56 runs, the change-up is also good at 1.47 runs, and the curve is something he may want to throw a little less of at -1.53 runs), and Jason did throw more of them in his second start than in his first (as a percentage of pitches thrown). The curveball comes in at only slightly slower than the slider (79.3 mph) and with more movement, but that movement is actually below average for a hook (4.7 vs. 5.5 horizontally, so it doesn't move away from righties as much as an average curve does, and -4.7 vs. -5.5 vertically, so it doesn't drop as much).

All of this is in a very small sample of two games, but Berken still looks like he has decent stuff. He won't be able to survive with a 1:1 strike-out to walk ratio though. He needs to get the walks down a little (3.75 BB/9 so far) and get the K's way up (also 3.75 K/9) to be successful, though I'm almost as excited about him as I am about Bergesen (who has a pretty good sinker - and I'll look at his Pitch/FX eventually - but is still giving up 1.16 HR/9; when he leaves the sinker up in the zone it can get hit a pretty long way).

Cahill actually works with a sinker himself, and he's giving up even more home runs (1.34 HR/9) than Bergesen, while also not striking anyone out (about a 4 K/9 for both) and walking more guys too (2.5 BB/9 for Berg, 3.9 BB/9 for Cahill). It may be wishful thinking given their play of late, but the O's should be able to put some runs on the board if they're patient at the plate.

In other news, Cesar Izturis is out after having just had an appendectomy. Sounds like he's going on the DL, with Oscar Salazar being called up. Thankfully the Birds traded Hayden Penn (7.77 ERA, 4.53 tRA out of the pen) to Florida for Robert Andino (.239/.280/.261, .275 wOBA, +2.8 UZR at short this year for the O's).

The line-up has also been shuffled around, with something I've been harping about - flipping Nick Markakis and Adam Jones - being part of that. This allows Luke Scott and his .449 wOBA to move up into the clean-up spot with Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora sliding down (since Jones will now break up the lefties a little). Felix Pie and Gregg Zaun will also be in there, giving Reimold and Wieters a day off. Now if only they'd rest Markakis and Roberts some time, we'd be in business.

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Top 1:

• Roberts flies out to center.
• Markakis singles down the third-base line.
• Nasty sinker down and in gets Jones swinging. Cahill's throwing it 92-94 instead of the 88-91 I was expecting.
  
• Luke Scott chases a change-up way outside for the second K of the inning.
  

Bottom 1:

• Orlando Cabrera lines the first pitch he sees into the right-field corner for a double.
• Adam Kennedy flies out to right, with Cabrera moving to third despite Nick's strong throw.
• Jack Cust grounds out to first, scoring a run.
• Matt Holliday flies out to the warning track in right to end the inning.
  

Top 2:

• The A's don't really shift against Huff, and he grounds out to third-base. That might have been an infield single if the fielders were moved around.
• Mora grounds out to short.
• Zaun grounds out to second.
  

Bottom 2:

• Jason Giambi grounds out to second.
  
• Kurt Suzuki gets jammed and grounds out to third.
• Aaron Cunningham flies out to right.
  

Top 3:

• Felix Pie fouls a pitch straight down, and the ball bounces back up and hits him in the throat. Looks like he's OK, though he waves at a change-up way outside for Cahill's third strike-out.
• Andino grounds out to short.
• Roberts flies out to center.
  

Bottom 3:

• Looks like that ball hurt Pie worse than it appeared, as Nolan Reimold takes his place in left. He handles the flyball by Jack Hannahan.
  
• Rajai Davis takes a high change-up (or a hanging curveball) into the left-center gap for a double.
• Cabrera bounces out to first.
• Kennedy hits a ball to center that falls in front of Adam Jones. Then it bounces passed him allowing Kennedy to go to second, with Davis having already scored to make it 2-0.
• Cust draws a walk.
• Holliday walks on four pitches, and that loads the bases with two down.
• Giambi will clear them with a double down the right-field line. 5-0, A's.
• Suzuki pops out.
  

Top 4:

• Markakis grounds out to second.
• Jones doubles into the left-field corner.
• High fastball gets Scott swinging.
• Huff grounds out to first.
  

Bottom 4:

• Cunningham doubles to left-center.
• Hannahan grounds to second, with Cunningham moving to third with one out.
• Davis draws a walk.
• Cabrera doubles off the wall in left to score a couple. 7-0, A's. They're just knocking the crap out of O's starters these last couple games.
• Kennedy doubles to left-center to make it 8-0. That's it for Berken, whose once shiny 2.25 ERA is up to 7.04.
  
• On the bright side, we get to see some more of David Hernandez. He'll take the mound, with the O's having burned much of their bullpen yesterday.
• Cust grounds out to first.
• Holliday singles through the left side to drice in the A's ninth run of the game. Roberts was actually shaded towards second-base, and if he was playing straight away it would have been right to him.
• Giambi flies out to left, with Reimold running a long way to get to that one in foul territory.

Top 5:

• Mora serves a single to right-field.
• Zaun flies out to left.
• Reimold, coming up for the first time today, grounds into a double play.

Bottom 5:

• Hernandez gives up a lead-off single, but K's a pair and gets a groundout to end the inning.
  

Think I'm more or less done paying a lot of attention to this one.

Hernandez pitched very well out of the pen (2.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K) and Nolan Reimold went deep (three-run homer), but it wasn't enough to get the O's all the way back. The lose 9-4 - another game over before it really even started.
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O's-A's, Can't Dig Out Of Early Hole

After losing two of three in Seattle, the O's continue their West coast swing with a stop in Oakland. The A's were a popular pick for the AL West crown once the injuries beset the Angels before the season, but I was still a little hesitant (projecting 82 wins) because of the pitching staff. Well the A's (who are still one of my favorite teams in baseball) are sitting at 22-30 and in last place, and the young pitching staff hasn't worked out exactly as planned.

A's top starters:
Dalles Braden (age 25) - 3.63 ERA, 4.06 tRA
Dana Eveland (age 25) - 7.40 ERA, 5.01 tRA
Josh Outman (age 24) - 3.02 ERA, 5.15 tRA
Trevor Cahill (age 21) - 4.33 ERA, 6.54 tRA
Brett Anderson (age 21) - 4.97 ERA, 4.92 tRA
Total - 4.30 ERA, 5.13 tRA

O's current starters (+ Koji):
Jeremy Guthrie (age 30) - 4.86 ERA, 5.68 tRA
Koji Uehara (age 34) - 4.09 ERA, 3.36 tRA
Rich Hill (age 29) - 4.15 ERA, 3.21 tRA
Brad Bergesen (age 23) - 4.64 ERA, 5.92 tRA
David Hernandez (age 24) - 4.91 ERA, 4.17 tRA
Jason Berken (age 25) - 2.25 ERA, 4.81 tRA
Total - 4.41 ERA, 4.83 tRA

There are some smaller sample sizes in there (really of them, but some more than others) but that explains a lot of the A's struggles. The continued lack of offense doesn't help either though. Despite reworking the line-up by bringing in Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi, and Orlando Cabrera, the A's team wOBA has actually gone down from .313 to .311. And even taking into account the pitcher's park in which they play, their adjusted wOBA this year is still .318.

The O's offense has been far more impressive, though still with only a wOBA of .340 (which is about average). The A's counter that advantage with a better pen (3.75 tRA to the O's 4.86 tRA) and a better defense (+6.0 UZR to the O's -13.0). It's because of those kinds of things (though not directly) the two teams having pretty much the same records according to third order wins from Baseball Prospectus (.438 winning percentage for the A's and .435 for the Birds).

Tonight it'll be the teams' respective "aces" - Dallas Braden (who actually beat the O's in his major league debut) and Jeremy Guthrie - on the mound.

I was going to blog through the game, but by the time I turned it on it was already 6-0 Oakland and Guthrie had been knocked out of the game. Mark Hendrickson came in and pitched a few innings, giving up a three-run homer to Matt Holliday. Matt Albers pitches a couple scoreless innings. Alberto Castillo - called up to take the place of the recently released Jamie Walker - pitched a perfect seventh (with a K), and Brian Bass finished it off with a perfect eighth. Unfortunately, Luke Scott hit his 13th HR of the year (and his 8th in the last nine games) - a solo shot - and that's all the offense that O's got on the night. They lose the first game of the series 9-1. Read more ...

Bedard Beats O's, M's Were Still Fleeced

After a good pitching duel yesterday, with Rich Hill beating Jarrod Washburn 1-0, we've got another interesting match-up tonight. David Hernandez will make his second start of the season after getting the win against Detroit with 5.2 innings of one-run ball. Since the Pitch/FX for that start is strangely not available on FanGraphs, I'll talk about his opponent instead.

Erik Bedard didn't have a very season in 2008 after being traded to Seattle. He was injured, throwing only 81 IP with a 3.67 ERA, but his walks shot up (4.1 BB/9 after 2.8 BB/9 in 2007) and that lead to an only average 4.85 tRA. This year Bedard is back on track, with a 2.48 ERA. His strike-out rate hasn't risen back to 2007's likely career high (10.9 K/9), but it's a very good 8.9 K/9 and his control is the best it's ever been (2.5 BB/9). That's resulted in a 3.75 tRA.

Still, that trade was a very, very bad one for Seattle (though it did put the nail in Bill Bavasi's coffin, which is good for the long-term health of the team given the very capable front-office that's been assembled now). How bad was it? Well, even if you break it up into 2 trades, then they're still bad.

1) Erik Bedard for Adam Jones: Bedard was worth (from FanGraphs) 1.1 WAR ($4.7 M) in 2008 and is on pace for about 3.6 WAR (about $17 M) this year. That's 4.7 WAR (about $21.7 M) while being paid a total of $14.5 M - that's about $7.2 M in excess value. Adam Jones was worth 2.2 WAR ($10 M) last year and is at 1.9 WAR ($8.5 M) already this year. Not on pace for (that would be about 5.7 WAR) - already at. That's 4.1 WAR already in from Jones for $18.5 M in value while being paid less than a million dollars total. Without taking into account anyone the M's might acquire for Bedard in a trade or via a draft-pick if he leaves as a free-agent - or the remaining 4 years that Jones is under Orioles' control - the Mariners have already lost this one.

2) Erik Bedard for George Sherrill and Chris Tillman (lets even pretend that Kam "The Almighty" Mickolio (4.50 ERA in Triple-A but with 26 K's and 6 BB's in 20 IP) and Tony Butler (4.42 ERA in A-Ball with 44 K's and 11 BB's in 50 IP) won't ever contribute in the majors): Bedard has the aforementioned $7.2 M in projected excess value, and this time lets add in the expected excess value of the draft-picks Seattle would get if he's a Type-A free agent. Over at The Hardball Times they valued those picks at about $3-5 M, but given the success Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik had with the draft in Milwaukee, let's lean towards the high end of that range. So that knocks the excess value from Bedard up to about $12 M.

George Sherrill was worth about 0.4 WAR ($1.7 M) last year while being paid $1.0 M, and is on pace for about 0.9 WAR (about $4.3 M) this year while being paid $2.75 M. That's $2.25 M in excess value.

Victor Wang did some research on value of prospects, which I'm going to use. Combining the top prospect lists going into 2009 from Baseball America (#22), Kevin Goldstein (#16), Keith Law (#40), and Deric McKamey (somewhere around #25), Chris Tillman (2.13 ERA in Triple-A with 44 K's and 13 BB's in 38 IP) ranks about 24th in baseball and 9th amongst pitchers (he's about equal to Brian Matusz, by the way). Top 10 pitchers have an expected excess value of about $13.5 M. That's already more than what Bedard is projected to provide to Seattle, and then add Sherrill (and Mickolio/Butler if you want), and this is another pretty clear win for Baltimore - even if it isn't quit as lopsided as the Adam Jones one.

In fact - depending on your opinion of Mickolio and Butler, and the value Sherrill can bring to the O's in his remainging time in Baltimore (I'd say about zero total, with some positive times and some negative times - though more if they can trade him for something decent) - one could even say that the O's would have come out even or ahead if this was split into 3 trades (Jones, Tillman, and Sherrill/Mickolio/Butler). No reason to get greedy though. It was an absolute steal as it is.

And it'll feel even better if the O's can beat Bedard in this game (though I'm still a fan, and would be open to bringing him back after the season if he'll take a discount).

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Top 1:

• Brian Roberts ends a long at bat with a pop-up to short.
• Adam Jones grounds the first pitch he sees to third.
• Nick Markakis grounds the first pitch he sees to first. I think these guys forgot that being patient at the plate is what helped bring them so much success early in the season.
  

Bottom 1:

• Ichiro! bounces a groundball into the hole at short and beats out Izturis' throw. That sets a new M's franchise record for a hitting streak at 26 games, beating the previous record of 25 games held by Ichiro!.
• Russell Branyan (batting second?) grounds a single into right-field.
• Adrian Beltre pops a 95 mph fastball at the letters up, and Ty Wigginton (playing first) makes the catch in foul territory.
• Hey, it's the zombie of Ken Griffey Jr! Seriously though, it's really nice to see Junior back in an M's uniform - he can't catch up to a good fastball (fouls off 97, then misses 94 and 96), but things are just better in the universe with Griffey back in Seattle.
• Jose Lopez hits a flyball to deep left that should end the inning, but the ball goes off of Reimold's glove and two runs score. Both will be "earned".
  
• Yuniesky Betancourt pops out to second.
  

Top 2:

• Aubrey Huff flies out to center. Bedard looks good thus far, but not dominant - the O's can score a couple runs off of him I think.
• Melvin Mora ropes a double just fair down the left-field line.
• Wigginton grounds out to short.
• Mora steals third without a throw.
• Matt Wieters grounds out to third.
  

Bottom 2:

• Rob Johnson hits a lead-off double to left-center field.
• Endy Chavez drops down a sac bunt.
• Frankiln Gutierrez draws a walk.
  
• Ichiro! pops out to Wieters behind the plate.
• Branyan hits a monster shot just foul down the right-field down. He ends up popping out to Mora in shallow left-field to leave the runners on.
  

Top 3:

• Sharp 3-2 curveball gets Reimold looking.
• Izturis strikes out looking as well.
• Roberts lines out to third.
  

Bottom 3:

• Beltre grounds a single through the left-side.
• Griffey pops out to Mora.
• Lopez doubles into the left-field corner.
• Betancourt grounds out to third, but that will bring in another run. 3-0, M's.
• Johnson flies out to left to end the inning.
  

Top 4:

• Adam Jones with a long flyball to left (man, the ball really doesn't carry well in Seattle) - it goes off the wall in the corner for a lead-off double.
• Markakis draws a walk. WOOOOOO! I may be the only person that gets really excited when Nick walks - maybe it's because I spent so much effort trying to show that his great walk rate from last year wasn't a fluke.
  
• Huff flies out to deep center-field. That might have been gone in Cmaden Yards.
• Mora pops out.
• Wigginton lines out to right. The O's really needed to score there, and they couldn't come through.
  

Bottom 4:

• Ichiro! serves a two-out single to left.
• Hernandez strikes Branyan out swinging to end the inning.
  

Top 5:

• Wieters lines a single into left-center.
• Fastball on the inside corner gets Reimold looking.
• Izturis bounces to short, though the M's can only get the force at second.
• After a steal of second by Cesar, Roberts strikes out swinging at a high fastball.
  

Bottom 5:

• Beltre singles to left-field.
• Griffey doubles over Jones' head in center-field. It was on a 92 mph fastball down in the zone, and he just dropped the head of the bat on it. I guess after striking him out and touching 97 in the first, Hernandez is trying to conserve some energy now and stay in the game long enough for his teammates to put some runs on the board for him. The O's have Mark Hendrickson is warming up in the pen.
  
• Lopez grounds out to short, which brings in the fourth Seattle run.
• Betancourt flies out to center.
• Johnson grounds up the middle, but Izturis ranges across the bag to get the ball and throw him out.
  

Top 6:

• High fastball gets Jones swinging.
• Markakis grounds out to short.
• Absurd curveball gets Huff looking. It started right at him and broke over the heart of the plate.
  

Bottom 6:

• Wigginton dives/falls down to snag a grounder by Chavez and takes it to the bag himself for the out.
• Gutierrez singles to right-center. That'll be the last batter Hernandez faces today, with Hendrickson coming in.
• Ichiro! grounds to short with Izturis getting just the force at second.
• Branyan walks on four pitches.
• Beltre singles to right to bring in Ichiro!, but Wigginton cuts off Markakis' throw home and fires to third to get Branyan to end the inning. Run counts though, and it's 5-0.
  

Top 7:

• Mora swings through a fastball for Bedard's 8th K.
• Wigginton singles to left.
• Wieters, with a patient at bat, draws the first walk of his career.
• Reimold battles through a tough plate appearance - fouling off several pitches - before drawing a walk himself.
• We've decided here that if Izturis hits a grand slam we're going to go get a beer. It won't be off of Bedard though, with Sean White coming in (12 BB and 11 K in 25.2 IP this year - those aren't good numbers). And it won't be Izturis either, with Luke Scott coming up to pinch-hit against the right-hander. Tired Bedard vs. Izturis or Sean White vs. Scott? Tough call, but I think I would have stuck with Erik.
  
• Scott grounds to third, but Branyan's only play is at first. That gets the O's on the board.
• Roberts grounds up the middle, but White snags it and throws him out. 5-1, M's.
  

Bottom 7:

• Griffey doubles deep into the left-field corner.
• Lopez grounds out to first, but that advances Junior to third.
• Matt Albers will take over on the mound for the O's.
• Betancourt grounds out to third, with Mora looking Griffey back to the bag.
• Gutierrez walks.
• Nice tailing away from Chavez gets him swinging.
  

Top 8:

• Jones grounds a single through the right side.
• Markakis hits a groundball to second, with Lopez taking it to second himself and getting taken out by a Jones' slide. His throw to first was way high, and Nick is safe.
• Huff hits another long flyball to the track in center that Gutierrez gets to. I'm not a big fan of "arena baseball", but playing in Seattle is frustrating.
• Mora pops out to end the inning.
  

Bottom 8:

• Albers gives up a lead-off single and gets replaced by Jamie Walker on the mound.
• Ichiro! flies out to center.
• Branyan deep and gone to right. 7-1, Seattle. Walker has now given up 3 HR to left-handed batters in 4.2 IP this year.
• Beltre flies out to center.
  
• Make that 4 HR in 5 IP to lefties. Ken Griffey Jr. hits #617 for his career. It was a breaking ball down and away, and Junior went out and hooked it.
• Lopez doubles to deep center-field. Walker isn't fooling anybody, and if Andy McPhail came down to the field right now to cut Jamie then I'd be A-OK with it.
• Betancourt grounds out to third.
  

Top 9:

• Felix Pie will pinch-hit against Denny Stark. Nice piece of hitting by Pie as he lines a double off the chalk down the left-field line. I still have faith in him to be a quality major leaguer, even if he'll only get a real chance in Baltimore if an injury occurs at this point. And 88 at bats does not a "real chance" make, though his PrOPS line of .249/.318/.388 isn't exaclty a confidence booster.
  
• Wieters bounces out to second. His timing looks just a little bit off at the plate.
• Robert Andino (who came in to play shor when Scott hit for Izturis) flies out to right to score Pie.
• Luke grounds out to second to end the game.
  

David Hernandez showed some impressive stuff, throwing a very hard "rising" fastball (92-97 mph, though without much run in on right-handed batters), a nice change-up that he didn't throw for strikes as much as one would like, and a sharp slider. The general line on him has been that he posted good strike-out numbers in the minors (with iffy control) but that scouts didn't like him very much as a potential quality major league starter. If he can keep the walks down, I don't see any reason he can't hang around as a #4 starter. His line doesn't look pretty (5.1 IP, 10 H, 5 R, 1 BB, 2 K), but two of those runs could easily been kept off the board if Reimold had taken a normal route to a flyball in the first inning. When you give up a lot of balls in play, sometimes the hits will fall in. Unfortunately for Hernandez, Erik Bedard was very effective for Seattle. The O's had there chances, but couldn't take advantage and lose 8-2.
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O's-M's, Pitching Rules As O's Eek Out 1-0 Win

The O's dropped the last two games of their series with Detroit after being on a little bit of a roll. They'll try to get back in the win column out on the West coast against the 24-27 Seattle Mariners.

It'll be a battle of left-handers with Rich Hill (6.14 ERA, 4.13 tRA) facing off against Jarrod Washburn (3.45 ERA, 4.55 tRA). Hill was largely ineffective in his last start against Toronto, giving up 7 runs in 3.1 IP. For him, success comes when he has some command of his fastball. Thus far this season, he's thrown only 43% of his pitches in the zone. That hasn't bitten him too badly (though a 5.5 BB/9 is awful) because hitters are still chasing pitches out of the zone (swinging at 22.4% of them, compared to 24.5% as the league average). If they stop doing that though - like they did last year when it was just 10.8% - then Hill may be in a lot more trouble. The curveball is great, but the fastball is down even more velocity-wise to 87.5 mph on average (88.3 mph last year, and 89.4 the year before) and with some control his ceiling is likely that of a #3/4 starter. Now that's still a big addition for the O's staffs of late, but with the young pitchers coming up he may not be able to keep his job for too much longer without showing some improvement somewhere.

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Top 1:

• Adam Jones fouls off a few pitches and draws a one-out walk.
• He ends the inning still at first though, as Nick Markakis and Aubrey Huff both fly out.
  

Bottom 1:

• Ichiro (!) starts the game with a double to left-field, and then takes third as Nolan Reimold's throw in goes off-line.
  
• Yuniesky Betancourt pops out to second.
• Hill elevates a fastball to the shoulders, and Adrain Beltre helps him out by weakly swinging and missing for the K.
• Mike Sweeney pops out to first. Nice job by Hill to leave the runner at third stranded.
  
• 
  

Top 2:

• With one out, the most recent Player of the Week - Luke Scott - lines a single off the wall in right-field.
• Cut fastball down and in gets Matt Wieters swinging.
• Reimold singles through the right-side.
• Cesar Izturis bounces out to second to end the inning.
  

Bottom 2:

• Russell Branyan walks. Branyan has finally been given a shot to play full-time, and boy is he taking advantage of it (.323/.413/.614, 11 HR, .433 wOBA coming into the game).
• Jose Lopez grounds to second for an easy double play.
• Wladimir Balentien walks on four pitches. Hill's not showing any improvement in fastball command thus far, and the curve isn't falling in for strikes much either.
• He strikes out Rob Johnson on three pitches though.
  

Top 3:

• Markakis grounds to short, but Betancourt throws the ball away and he's safe at first with two down. Nick hit .381/.460/.600 in April and .240/281/.438 in May. The drop in average; fine. Balls don't fall in and all that - BABIP fluctuations - it happens. It's the drop in walk to strike-out ratio from 13-13 to 6-13 that's concerning. He's getting less balls thrown in the zone to him, but he's swinging less at those and more at pitches out of the zone. And his fielding out in right has been awful. Add it all up and he's only been about a replacement level player thus far (just 0.1 WAR or so). Very disappointing, though it has to pick up.
• Oh, and Huff pops out to end the inning.
  

Bottom 3:

• Franklin Gutierrez walks on four pitches. Hill's lucky the M's don't have a particularly good offense.
• Ichiro (!) grounds to second, but the can only get the force at second.
• Betancourt singles to left.
• Usually Hill can make up for his lack of fastball command by throwing curveballs in the zone. Tonight though, a lot of those are hanging up and out of the zone themselves.
• Beltre pops out, with Huff reaching over the railing into the M's dugout to make the catch.
• Sharp curve/slider gets Sweeney, as he's not able to check his swing. Again Hill gets himself into - and then out of - trouble.
  

Top 4:

• 1-2-3 go the O's.
  

Bottom 4:

• 1-2-3 go the M's. A couple groundouts and a K, with 9 of 13 pitches classified as strikes (only 26 of 50 in the first three innings).
  

Top 5:

• Reimold lines a single to left.
• Very quick turn of the double play off an Izturis grounder to second.
• Roberts strikes out.
  

Bottom 5:

• Another 1-2-3 inning for Hill (all 9 pitches were strikes).
  

Top 6:

• Adam Jones breaks his bat on a foul ball, and then uses the new one to line a double over the left-fielders head. The ball beat Jones to second, but it was a bit off-line and Adam just got in there.
• Markakis lines a single to center and the O's have runners on the corners.
• Huff hits a flyball to deep center to bring in Jones. Nick tags up himself and goes to second, just getting in ahead of the tag with a nice slide. O's up 1-0.
• Mora flies out to right.
• Scott flies out to the track in right.
  

Bottom 6:

• Fastball on the inside corner gets Beltre looking for the second out of the sixth.
• Nasty 69 mph curveball swung on and missed for strike two. That thing could get people to fall over trying to get it. Sweeney flies out to end the inning.
• Hill's retired 11 in a row.
  

Top 7:

• Wieters drives a 3-2 pitch into deep center-field, but Gutierrez is able to just run it down. It didn't even look like he hit it that hard, but the ball traveled about 400 ft.
• Reimold flies out to short right.
• Izturis singles up the middle.
• Roberts flies out to right.
  

Bottom 7:

• Nice curveball gets Branyan swinging. The count was 3-2, but Hill has shown that he'll throw the hook in any count.
• Lopez pops out to Wieters.
• Fastball gets Baletnien looking.
  

Top 8:

• Chris Jakubauskas in for Washburn, who pitched pretty well and definitely used the big outfield to his advantage.
• Markakis draws a one-out walk. That's his first base on balls since May 17th. Yikes.
• Amazing play by Branyan to make a diving stop of a Huff grounder, throw to second for the force, and then get back to the bag to catch the relay. That's a Web Gem right there.
  

Bottom 8:

• Jim Johnson will come in to hold the 1-0 lead.
• 97 mph fastball boring down and in gets Rob Johnson swinging.
• Another one at 93 gets Gutierrez swinging.
• Ichiro flies out to left.
  

Top 9:

• Mora flies out to right.
• Scott strikes out looking.
• Wieters, batting left-handed for the first time today, strikes out looking as well. Hey, but at least he called a good game.
  

Bottom 9:

• George Sherrill in for the save.
• Betancourt flies out to deep center.
• Beltre flies out to deep center.
• Sweeney flies out to deep right.
  

Rich Hill started out shaky, but he really settled down and pitched well (7IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 7 K). O's pitchers retired the last 20 hitters of the game, and the offense was able to scratch out one run for the win. In the post-game interview, Adam Jones said he and Nick Markakis don't remember the last time the O's won 1-0, and I have to agree. (It was 2007 apparently.) Great win for the Birds, and for Hill after his struggles last time out.
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Jackson Beats Berken In Pitchers' Duel

After the last couple of games with Matt Wieters behind the plate, today Gregg Zaun (who I still like, and I think could be a very effective back-up) will be out there with Wieters DH'ing. At first I thought that Wieters was sitting, and was a little less excited to watch the game. WIth the way Luke Scott has been hitting, he's staying in the line-up and playing left with Nolan Reimold getting the day off. Ty Wigginton and Robert Andino are giving Melvin Mora and Cesar Izturis some rest as well.

The O's are finishing up their four-game series with the Tigers having already guaranteed themselves at least a split. Jason Berken goes for the Birds - it's his second start and the first time I'll be seeing him pitch - against Edwin Jackson, who has found some command (2.3 BB/9 this year, improving from 3.8, 4.9, and 6.2 BB/9 the past three years) and much improves results (2.58 ERA, 3.49 FIP)

• Both pitchers record quick first innings.
• Berken is a pretty small right-hander. He's listed at 6'0", but there's no way that's accurate. He gets OK movement on his low-90's fastball, but does a nice job pounding the zone and mixing his pitches. The third time throught the line-up probably won't be very pretty though, as they'll already have seen everything he has to offer.
• After a quiet first three innings, Curtis Granderson takes Berken deep in the 4th to give the Tigers a 1-0 lead.
• Nick Markakis picks up the O's first hit, lining a single to left.
• Jackson is just mowing these O's hitters down. Low to mid 90's fastball and a sharp slider - both of which he's shown excellent control over. With Zumaya waiting in the pen jsut in case.
• Berken matched him almost pitch for pitch, and will be taken out for Danys Baez in the eighth. Jason's final line was 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 2 K, and though he didn't look particularly impressive he got the job done. Now he just needs some offense.
• Baez gives up a walk and a double to make it 2-0 Detroit. That seems like a huge lead today.
• Wigginton leads off the 8th with a ground-rule double into left-center field. O's can't get him in though.
  
• Mark Hendrickson gets some work in the ninth and also gives up a run on a walk and a single.
• Adam Jones draws a two-out walk against closer Fernando Rodney, but Markakis grounds back to the mound to end the game.
• Two hits and two walks is all the O's get on the day, as the lose once agian on a Sunday 3-0. It's off to the West coast now.
  

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O's Fall To Hard Throwing Tigers

Not a full live blog today, but just some observations about the O's-Tigers game:

• Justin Verlander throwing 98 mph effortlessly is absurd. And then he mixes in a big hook. Filthy.
• Guthrie throws one of the best sliders I've seen from him this year to strike Dane Sardinha swinging. Then he gives up a home run to Clete Thomas, of all people. It's been an up and down season for Guts (mostly down thus far).
• Nick Markakis has the first nice swing I've seen from him in a while, and lines a double into the left-field corner. He hasn't looked good recently - and the walks are down - but maybe he's snapping out of it a bit.
• Matt Wieters with his first major league hit, driving a 96 mph fastball over Curtis Granderson's head in dead-center for a triple. How many catchers have had there first hit be a triple?
• And he scores his first run as Nolan Reimold singles up the middle to cut Detroit's lead to 3-1.
• The O's load the bases with no outs, but Adam Jones grounds into a double play (pitcher to home to first) and Markakis strikes out on three pitches.
• Luke Scott hits a two-run homer to tie the game. That's 6 home runs in 4 days for Luuuuke.
• Matt Wieters battles through a tough at bat - fouling off several 95-99 mph fastballs - before lining a ground-rule double into right-center field. After the 0-4 yesterday, he's showing why people were so excited for him in today's game.
• Clete Thomas homers off of Matt Albers. Clete Thomas has a two home run game. Clete Thomas has a two home run game!
• The O's line-up faced Verlander touching 99, Ryan Perry touching 97, Joel Zumaya touching 101, and Fernando Rodney touching 97. Ridiculous.
• Guthrie pitched pretty well (6 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 10 K, but 2 HR), but Matt Albers and Jamie Walker were ineffective out of the pen.
• The O's winning streak ends, as they fall 6-3.

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O's-Tigers, Another Rookie Pitcher Wins In Debut

Today I've been interviewed by Liz Farmer of the Daily Record, and Nestor Aparicio of WNST 1570 AM radio... about MattWietersFacts.com. A nice end to a crazy day is watching David Hernandez make his major league debut for the O's.

I'll let Dave Cameron of FanGraphs take care of the intro, but also note that Chris Ray (9.39 ERA) was sent down to the minors today:

"As a travel Thursday, there aren’t a ton of major league games on the schedule for tonight. However, there is one that should be worth watching, and it will take place in Baltimore, where the Tigers are in town to take on the Orioles. Making his major league debut, David Hernandez will be starting for the O’s.

Hernandez is one of those divisive prospects who puts up numbers that dwarf his physical abilities. His numbers, especially the strikeout rates, are ridiculous. In 2007, he posted a 10.4 K/9 in High-A ball. Last year, he put up a 10.6 K/9 in Double-A. This year, he’s up to 12.46 K/9 in Triple-A. He’s consistently been at the top of the league leaderboards in strikeouts at every rung of the ladder.

However, the reaction from scouts has been relatively mild. He was a 16th round pick in 2005, and even with his minor league dominance, Baseball America left him out of the Orioles Top 10 prospects over the winter. The concerns have mostly centered around questionable command of a four seam fastball and a lack of a third pitch. His slider is definitely an out pitch, and it’s the reason for his crazy strikeout rate, but heavy reliance on a breaking ball will get scouts talking bullpen very quickly.

In some ways, the Hernandez discussions are similar to the ones that surrounded Yusmeiro Petit as he rose through the minor leagues. He also ran up big numbers with stuff that didn’t match it, and created a divide between the statistical and scouting communities. The jury may still be out on Petit to some degree, but clearly, the scouts were more correct about his abilities than the numbers were. However, a good chunk of Petit’s dominance came in the low minors, and his strikeout rates decrease as he faced harder competition. Hernandez’s numbers have done the exact opposite.

It’s worth noting that Hernandez has significantly better velocity than Petit as well, sitting 90-93 on a regular basis. He’s not a low velocity guy who is just tricking minor leaguers with junk. He’s got a major league fastball and a knockout slider. He’s not John Stephens.

I’m really looking forward to seeing Hernandez pitch against big leaguers, and the Pitch F/x data should be pretty fun to look at as well. If you’re looking for some entertaining baseball tonight, check out the O’s-Tigers, and see what side of the Hernandez fence you come down on."

And the top four O's pitching prospects are still in the minors. Things should be looking up.

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Top 1:

• Not a great start, as Hernandez walks Clete Thomas.
• Placido Polanco flies out to center.
• Hit-and-run bouncer by Magglio Ordonez goes into right for a single to put runners on the corners.
• 95 mph fastball just off the outside corner gets Miguel Cabrera swinging. Very nice pitch.
• Hernandez throws his second nice change-up for a strike - this one to Curtis Granderson. Unfortunately he losses Grandy on his second walk.
• Brandon Inge hits a long line-drive to left, but Reimold makes the catch to leave the bases loaded.
  

Bottom 1:

• Brian Roberts lines a single into right-field.
• Adam Jones hits a long flyball - just foul - down the left-field line. Then he gets his bat broken and grounds into a double play.
• Curveball on the outside corner gets Nick Markakis looking. Nick looks like he's not seeing the ball very well at the plate right now. Seems like he's behind in the count a lot, and his walks are down.

Top 2:

• Hernandez blows three straight fastballs by Jeff Larish to strike him out.
• Gerald Laird grounds out to third.
• Ramon Santiago grounds out to first. Hernandez's fastball explodes out of his hand, and he's shown a decent change. Exciting times at the yard.
  

Bottom 2:

• Aubrey Huff draws a lead-off walk.
• Melvin Mora grounds into a double play.
• Second game in a row Luke Scott hits a home run to center-field in his first at bat. This one was a solo shot, and it gives the O's a 1-0 lead.
• Nolan Reimold chases a slider for the K.
  

Top 3:

• Thomas pops out to second.
• Polanco flies out to right-field.
• Ordonez flies out to center. Looks like Hernandez has settled down a little.
  

Bottom 3:

• Cesar Izturis singles to left. No double play, please.
• Roberts flies out to short left-field.
• Jones strikes out swinging at a slider low out of the zone.
  

Top 4:

• Cabrera grounds out to short.
  
• Granderson with a broken bat bloop into left for a single.
• Inge grounds to third, with Mora starting the inning-ending double play. Nice reversal there, as Inge started both of Detroit's.
  

Bottom 4:

• Markakis grounds out to second.
• Huff gets hit on the leg with an errant breaking-ball. Thankfully he had his shin-guard on.
• Broken play, as Huff takes off and Mora takes a pitch. Obviously Aubrey is dead meat, and gets tagged out attempting to get back to first.
• Mora lines a single up the middle.
• Scott flies out to deep right.
  

Top 5:

• Larish lines a double into right-field after just checking his swing on a nice slider.
• Laird walks on a pitch that was almost certainly in the strike-zone.
  
• Santiago drops a two-strike bunt down, but it comes right back to Hernandez who gets the force at third.
• Thomas singles up the middle to tie the game. Jones threw to third in time to get Santiago, but Mora couldn't handle it.
• Polanco gets jammed and pops out to Mora in foul territory.
• Gary Thorne has mixed up sliders and fastballs at least five times already in this game - it's mildly irritating.
• Ordonez flies out to center to end the inning.
  

Bottom 5:

• Nolan Reimold deep and gone to left-field. Hanging slider in the middle of the plate and he crushed it. His fifth home run of the year gives the O's back the lead.
• Zaun flies out to center.
• Izturis lines a single just in front of a sliding Granderson in center.
• Roberts lines a single to right-center.
• Jones flies out to right.
• Markakis flies out to left.
  

Top 6:

• Rising fastball at the shoulders gets Cabrera swinging.
• Granderson pulls a single through the right side. He steals second and moves to third as Roberts can't handle the bounce on the throw.
• Inge walks.
• Larish pops out to Mora.
• That's it for David Hernandez. With runners on the corners and two outs Dave Trembley will go to Matt Albers.
• Laird walks to load the bases.
• Fastball on the inside corner gets Santiago looking. That leaves the bases loaded, and keeps Hernandez in line for a win.
  

Bottom 6:

• Huff lines a double into right-center.
• Mora singles to right. Ordonez fakes Huff out that he was going to make the catch, but Huff is still able to just make it to third despite returning to the bag at second.
• Scott flies out to left, but it's too shallow to score Huff.
• Reimold grounds to third, with Inge making a sliding stop and starting his third double play of the game. O's get runners on but fail to score again.
  

Top 7:

• Thomas walks on five pitches.
• Polanco lays down a sac bunt to move Thomas to second.
• Magglio grounds out to first.
• Jim Johnson will come in from the pen to face Cabrera.
• Miggy pops the first pitch up to Roberts to end the inning.
  

Bottom 7:

• Zaun grounds to second.
• Izturis flies out to left.
• Roberts flies out to deep left-center.
  

Top 8:

• Granderson can't check his swing on a high fastball.
• Inge grounds to third, but Mora throws the ball away. Luckily it stayed nearby and kept Inge at first.
• Larish draws a walk.
• Laird grounds to third, with Mora handling the tricky hop and starting the inning-ending double play. All kinds of baserunners getting erased today.
  

Bottom 8:

• Jones singles through the left side.
• Markakis flies out to center.
• Huff draws a walk.
• Mora stikes out looking.
• Luke Scott does it again. A three-run bomb into the bullpen in left-center extends the O's lead to 5-1.
• Reimold pops out to end the inning.
  

Top 9:

• Not a save situation, but George Sherrill still coming in.
• Easy 1-2-3 inning.
  

Solid debut from David Hernandez (5.2 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 3 K). He showed better stuff than I was expecting, but the control wasn't particularly good. Hernandez did his job though, and the bullpen (3.3 hitless innings) and the offense (Reimold hit a HR, and Scott hit two and drove in four) backed him up. The O's have won 6 of 7 and moved their season mark to 22-26 (a 74 win pace). The rotation now has someone to watch every day, with Guthrie, Hill, Bergesen, Berken, and Hernandez all possibly being pieces for the future (unlike the Eaton's of the world).
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O's-Nationals, The Sweep Gets Dunn In

The O's go for the sweep against the Nationals today, with the Birds actually countering the Washington youngster on the mound - Shairon Martis - with one of their own in Brad Bergesen. Martis is 5-0 but has a 4.53 ERA and a 4.63 tRA, while Bergesen is 1-2 with a 5.35 ERA, a 5.29 FIP, and a 6.20 tRA. Despite those high runs allowed figures, this game has a good chance of following the last two as a pitching duel.

Bergesen's control has been pretty good (3.2 BB/9) but not quite as good as I would have expected and not nearly good enough to make up for his lack of strike-outs (4.3 K/9). He's getting a lot of groundballs (56%) but is still giving up 1.34 HR/9.

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Top 1:

• Brian Roberts swings at the first pitch of the game and flies out to left.
• Adam Jones flies out to left-center.
• Nick Markakis hits a long flyball to right, but Austin Kearns makes a jumping catch and is able to hang onto the ball as he crashes into the wall.
  

Bottom 1:

• Willie Harris doubles into the right-field corner.
• Christian Guzman grounds out to second, moving Harris over to third.
• Ryan Zimmerman hits a blooper towards second, with Roberts laying out to make the catch.
• Adam Dunn grounds out to first. Nice job by Bergesen to keep the Nationals off the board despite the lead-off double.
  

Top 2:

• Aubrey Huff lines a double off the wall in right - it was about a foot from clearing the fence for a home run.
• Ty Wigginton pops out to Adam Dunn in the foul territory near first-base, and Huff shows off his blazing speed by tagging up and taking third.
• Nolan Reimold strikes out looking. He started off to first-base since the 3-2 fastball was outside, but the ump rung him up.
• Chad Moeller hits a groundball up the middle, but Guzman is able to get to it and throw him out. Another lead-off double wasted.
  

Bottom 2:

• Josh Willingham grounds a single up the middle.
• Belliard strikes out swinging.
• Kearns grounds into a double play.
  

Top 3:

• Robert Andino flies out.
• Brad Bergesen hits the first pitch he sees in major league baseball back through the box for a single.
• Roberts draws a walk.
• Jones flies out to short right-center.
• Markakis drives a flyball to deep left-center, and nobody's going to rob him this time. The ball bounces off the wall and Nick is in with a two-run triple.
• Huff grounds out to second to end the inning, but the O's have taken a 2-0 lead.
  

Bottom 3:

• Wil Nieves hits a slow bouncer to the left side, with Wigginton charging to his left to scoop it and make the throw for the out.
• Martis grounds out to short.
  
• Harris squares around to bunt, and Bergesen's pitch bores down and in and hits him in the shin.
• Guzman strikes out swinging on a good slider inside under is hands.
  

Top 4:

• Wigginton flies out to left.
• Reimold pops out.
  
• Moeller hits a flyball to deep left - Willingham keeps going back on it, but it goes over his head and Chad is in with a double.
• Andino gets the intentional walk to bring Bergesen up.
• Another groundball up the middle, but Guzman gets to this one. The throw pulls Dunn off the bag though, and everybody's safe.
• Roberts flies out to left to leave the bases loaded.
  

Bottom 4:

• Zimmerman hits a high flyball to the track in center, but Jones is there to make the catch.
• Dunn pops out to short, though it's Wigginton making the catch with the infield shift they had on.
• Willingham send Jones back to the wall in center again, but the batter is retired.
  

Top 5:

• Jones gets hit on the hand and jogs off to first-base. He looks OK though.
• Adam gets thrown out stealing second, but the umpire misses the call. Markakis grounds sharply to Dunn, moving Jones to third.
• Huff hits a groundball through a drawn-in infield to extend the lead to 3-0.
• Wigginton pops out to first.
• Reimold pops out to short.
  

Bottom 5:

• Belliard flies out to deep center.
• Kearns drops a double just fair down the right-field line.
• Nieves lines a double down the first-base to get the Nationals on the board.
• Martis lines a single to center to make it 3-2. Jones made a string throw to the plate, but Moeller couldn't hang on to it.
• Harris flies out to left.
• Guzman grounds out to second to end the inning.
  

Top 6:

• Moeller grounds out to third.
• Andino strikes out.
• Bergesen is finally retired, on a groundball to third.
  

Bottom 6:

• Zimmerman lines a single into left-field.
• Dunn hits a flyball to deep center, and Jones won't be able to get to this one. He looks up as it clears the fence and gives the Nationals a 4-3 lead.
• Willingham grounds out to short.
• Belliard grounds to short.
• Kearns singles into short right-center.
• Chris Ray in fromthe pen to face Nieves, and he ends the inning with a groundout back to the mound.
  

Top 7:

• Roberts singles to center.
• Adam Jones got robbed of a home run to center yesterday, so he pulls one today. It clears the fence with plenty to spare, and the O's have retaken the lead 5-4.
• Ron Villone takes the mound with Markakis and Huff coming up.
• Nick pops out to third.
• Huff works a walk.
• Wigginton flies out to right-field.
• Reimold draws a walk - that's only his second of the season in 41 plate appearances.
  
• Moeller flies out to center to leave a couple stranded.
  

Bottom 7:

• Ray gets ahead of pinch-hitter Anderson Hernandez 0-2, but end up leaving a pitch out over the plate that Hernandez lines into right for a single.
• Harris gets jammed by a fastball inside but pulls it passed a diving Roberts for a single.
• Guzman drops a nice bunt down the third-base line, though Wigginton is able to throw him out by a step.
• With first-base open they're going to put Zimmerman on and bring Jamie Walker in to face Dunn. Felix Pie will also come in to play left-field.
  
• Adam Dunn hits a high flyball to left that Pie will not have a play on. Grand slam, and the Nationals are back ahead 8-5.
• Willingham lines out to left.
• Belliard grounds out to short.
  

Top 8:

• Joe Beimel takes the mound for Washington.
• Fantastic jumping catch by Kearns in foul territory to retire Andino. Actually, it looked better than it was because Kearns overran the ball initially - he didn't really need to jump for it.
  
• Pie strikes out swinging.
• Hernandez makes a diving catch at second to rob Roberts of a hit.
  

Bottom 8:

• Mark Hendrickson in to get some work.
• He gives up a single, but keeps the score at 8-5.
  

Top 9:

• Joel Hanrahan in for the save.
• Adam Jones can't catch up to a 96 mph fastball at the letters.
• Nick Markakis can't catch up to a 95 mph fastball right down the middle.
• Huff grounds out to second.
  

Another Sunday game, another loss for the Orioles. Adam Dunn was the big hero for Washington, hitting two home runs and driving in six. First place Toronto visits the Yard for a series starting tomorrow.
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O's-Nationals, Koji & The Pen Do It Again

Both pitching staffs did a good job yesterday, though the Orioles were able to pull a win out in extra innings. Today might be similar, as Baltimore has their best starter thus far on the hill in Koji Uehara (4.34 ERA, 3.38 tRA) while the Nationals counter with another young pitching prospect in 23 year-old left-hander Ross Detwiler (making his second career start).

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Top 1:

• Brian Roberts flies out to center.
• Adam Jones hits a long drive to center-field. It clears the fence by about two feet, but unfortunately Justin Maxwell has long arms and some leaping ability. The fantastic catch robs Jones of his tenth home run of the year, and keeps the O's off the board for the time being.
  
• Nick Markakis grounds out to first.
  

Bottom 1:

• Christian Guzman lines a splitter to the left side, but Cesar Izturis makes a great diving catch to retire him.
• Koji mixes his pitches well and gets Nick Johnson swinging at a fastball. He set it up by throwing a splitter low the previous pitch, before elevating the heater.
• Ryan Zimmerman pulls a single through the left side.
• Adam Dunn hits a hard grounder to first, but Ty Wigginton makes a diving stop and tags the bad with his hand to end the inning.
  

Top 2:

• O's go down in order. Detwiler reminds me a little of Adam Loewen - just with the way he throws. Lets hope he's able to stay healthier.
  

Bottom 2:

• Koji gives up a lead-off single, but leaves him stranded.
  

Top 3:

• Gregg Zaun gives the O's their first base-runner with a walk.
• Cesar Izturis grounds out to first.
• Koji draws a walk.
• Roberts walks. The bases are now loaded, and Detwiler looks even more like Loewen.
• Jones swings through a 93 mph fastball for strike three.
• Markakis hits a slow roller off the end of the bat, but by the time Zimmerman gets to it he has no play. Zaun scores to give the O's a 1-0 lead.
  
• Mora flies out to right to leave the bases loaded.
  

Bottom 3:

• Detwiler strikes out swinging at a splitter.
• Guzman flies out to left.
• Johnson draws a walk.
• Koji thought he had a K of Zimmerman with a fastball on the outside corner, but it was called a ball and Uehara subsequently walked him.
• Dunn with a long at bat, fouling off several pitches and running the count full before hitting a hard groundball that bounces off of the first-base bag. Wigginton is able to get to it in time to keep any runners from scoring, but the bases are loaded.
• Austin Kearns grounds out to third. Koji gets into trouble, but is able to keep the Nationals off the board.
  

Top 4:

• Aflac trivia question: who is the only Oriole to lead the league in HR outright? I'm going to go with Frank Robinson.
• Wigginton waves at a pitch (change-up, maybe) about a foot outside.
• Reimold pops out.
• Zaun pops out.
  

Bottom 4:

• I wonder if Koji is OK, because Brian Bass is out for the fourth.
  
• Willie Harris grounds out to first.
• Bard grounds out to first, with Wigginton ranging to his left to snag it before tossing to Bass covering.
• Maxwell grounds out to short. Bass (4.61 ERA but only 2 ER allowed in his last 20 IP) has done a good job for the team eating these middle innings recently.
  

Top 5:

• Izturis lines out to center.
• Bass strikes out looking.
• Roberts flies out to center.
  

Bottom 5:

• Detwiler grounds back to the mound.
  
• Guzman ties the game with a line-drive home run to right.
• Johnson hits a pop-up into short center-field. Izturis goes out while Jones comes in, and the ball drops between them. Looks like a little miscommunication.
• Zimmerman strikes out swinging.
• Dunn strikes out swinging.
  

Top 6:

• Aflac trivia answer: Frank Robinson. Yahtzee.
• Jones can't catch up to a 94 mph fastball upstairs.
• Markakis grounds out to second.
  
• Mora walks.
• Wigginton pops out.
  

Bottom 6:

• Kearns grounds out to third.
• Harris singles to right-field.
• Bard hits a slow grounder, but - being a catcher - the O's have plenty of time to turn the double play.
  

Top 7:

• Detwiler looked pretty good in his six innings, but won't be getting a decision. Julian Tavarez in from the Washington pen.
• Reimold grounds out to third.
• Zaun drops a double down the right-field line.
• Izturis grounds to short, with Guzman throwing to third to get a sliding Zaun. Base-running mistake there.
• That's it for Tavarez. With Aubrey Huff announced as the pinch-hitter, lefty Ron Villone will take the mound.
• Huff with a flyball to deep left-center field. The ball hits the top of the wall and bounces back onto the field, and Huff is in safely with an RBI triple.
• Roberts grounds out to third, but the O's have retaken the lead 2-1.
  

Bottom 7:

• Matt Albers making his second appearance in as many days.
• Maxwell strikes out looking.
  
• Josh Willingham, pinch-hitting, grounds out to third.
• Guzman flies out to center.
  

Top 8:

• Jones lines out to right against new pitcher Jason Bergmann.
  
• Markakis grounds out to second. Nick hasn't looked particularly good at the plate the last couple of days.
• Mora lines out to left.
  

Bottom 8:

• Jim Johnson taking his usual eighth inning spot, even with a couple of left-handed batters due up.
• The first one - Nick Johnson - draws a walk.
• Zimmerman lines out to Izturis.
• Dunn rips a single into right-field. Jamie Walker was ready at the start of the inning, and is still standing out in the pen. Just saying.
• Kearns hits a ball maybe a half-inch foul down the third-base line; then JJ gets him to ground into the inning-ending double play.
  

Top 9:

• Joel Hanrahan making his first appearance of the series.
• Wigginton swings at the first pitch and grounds out to short.
• Reimold hits a groundball to third that just eats up Zimmerman. Tough bounce, and Nolan is safe at first.
• Zaun pops out, with Reimold being doubled off of first.
  

Bottom 9:

• George Sherrill in for the save.
• Harris gets caught looking with a fastball.
• Bard can't check his swing on a slider in the dirt.
• Maxwell can't check his on a fastball at the knees. Ol' Flat Breezey strikes out the side
  

Who would have expected another pitching duel with these two teams? Detwiler was good, and so was Koji (more or less) before he left the game with a hamstring strain (no word yet on how serious it is). The bullpens mostly did their jobs, with the O's again being the team that was able to scratch a run across when they needed it. The Orioles only pick up 3 hits, but they take the game 2-1 and have guaranteed a win in the series.
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O's-Nationals, Birds Take It In Extra-Innings

The Beltway series starts out with a pretty intriguing pitching match-up. Rich Hill makes his second start of the year after picking up a victory in his solid debut in KC, while the Nationals send 22 year-old right-hander and top prospect Jordan Zimmermann (6.27 ERA, 5.71 tRA) to the mound. The game also features three of the top average hitters in the game with Christian Guzman's .373 BA placing him fourth, Adam Jones' .364 seventh, and Ryan Zimmerman's .353 ninth. Overall, Washington comes into the game with the major's worst record at 12-28 and the Orioles are third worst at 16-25.

In more general news, the O's have released Adam Eaton (it was expected, though perhaps not quite this soon). Eaton started out OK, but his season hasn't gone well (8.56 ERA, 6.32 tRA). I expect a youngster like David Hernandez to come up and take a rotation spot in the near future.

Anyways - as with last time, here's the Rich Hill's Pitch/FX data from FanGraphs:


I found it amusing that Hill dropped down again, once, to throw that "slider". It was to Adam Dunn, who fouled it off before drawing a walk. While it looks like his movement changed from his last start, the uniform difference of everything moving slightly to the left leads me to believe that it's an issue with the Pitch/FX system calibration on one of the two stadiums.

Statistically speaking , start #2 (5.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 4 BB, 6 K) looked a lot like start #1 (5.2 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K). The walks were up partly as a result of a worse ball-strike ratio (46-53 after 34-54), but he also got more groundballs which allowed him to erase a runner via a double play.

All six of his K's came on the curveball, with two looking and four swinging. Hill is still having a ton of problems with his fastball command, as only 37% of his pitches (overall) have been in the strike-zone (as opposed to around 50% as the league average) and lot of that is his fastball. The Pitch/FX didn't catch every pitch in his last start - and it's not exact - but it looks like he threw around a third of his fastballs in the strike zone and around 40% of his curveballs. The curve is a great pitch for him, but it will lose a lot of it's effectiveness if opposing batters know that Hill can't get his fastball over. Despite his solid first couple of starts (3.18 ERA, 3.78 FIP), Hill still has a lot to work on before he can be counted on as a long-term contributor to the rotation.

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Top 1:

• Zimmermann retires the O's in order, though Nick Markakis did put a scare into with a drive to the track in deep center-field.
  

Bottom 1:

• Guzman pops out to Huff in foul territory.
• Nick Johnson grounds out to second.
  
• Ryan Zimmerman grounds out to second, with Roberts making a nice back-hand stop and a spinning throw to get him.
  

Top 2:

• Aubrey Huff grounds out to third.
• Melvin Mora grounds out to second.
• Nolan Reimold just unloads on a fastball over the middle of the plate. O's take an early 1-0 on Reimold's second home run of the season.
• Chad Moeller chases a slider off the plate for strike three.
  

Bottom 2:

• Adam Dunn flies out to left.
• Hill walks Josh Willingham on five pitches, with three of them not even close.
• He goes to the breaking-ball against Ronnie Belliard and gets a couple of nice curves over for strikes before jamming him with a fastball inside. Unfortunately Belliard is able to muscle over the shortstop for a single.
• Josh Bard grounds sharply to short, which gives the O's plenty of time to turn the double play.
  

Top 3:

• Cesar Izturis, back in the line-up, flies out to left.
• Hill strikes out swinging.
• Roberts lines a double into the right-field corner.
• Jones singles to left, with Roberts getting in just ahead of the throw (which wasn't held onto anyway).
• Markakis flies out to left, but the O's have extended their lead to 2-0.
  

Bottom 3:

• Justin Maxwell takes a big breaking curveball on the outside corner for strike three.
• Zimmermann (the pitcher) swing over the top of a breaking-ball for Hill's second K.
• As does Guzman. Hill uses the curveball to strike out the side.
  

Top 4:

• Huff grounds out to second.
• Mora strikes out looking.
• Reimold hits a groundball up the middle. Belliard ranges over to his right to get it, but doesn't attempt a throw as Nolan is safe at first with an infield single.
• Moeller flies out to left to end the inning.
  

Bottom 4:

• Nick Johnson pulls a single through the right side.
• Zimmerman drives a fastball just over the wall in right-center to tie the game at 2-2.
• Dunn checks his swing and flies out to left. Show you how strong the man is that he could take a half-swing and still hit the ball 300 ft. to the opposite field.
• Willingham draws another walk. Hill picks him off though, with Huff making the throw to second to get him as he took off.
  
• Another curveball swung and missed - this time by Belliard - for the strike-out.
  

Top 5:

• Izturis waves at a breaking-ball for strike three.
• Hill strikes out swinging a well.
• Roberts lines a single up the middle.
• Jones flies out to deep center.
  

Bottom 5:

• 3-2 curveball on the inside corner gets Bard looking. That tells you which pitch Hill feels he can throw for a strike when he needs to.
  
• Maxwell grounds out to second.
• Curveball gets Zimmermann swinging for a second time.
  

Top 6:

• Markakis lines out to left.
• Huff pops out.
• Mora does a nice job working a walk.
• Reimold grounds out to short.
  

Bottom 6:

• Guzman grounds out to short.
  
• Johnson draws a walk.
• Zimmerman hits a slow roller to short, but the O's are only able to get the force at second.
• Hill falls behind Dunn 3-1 and drops a nice curveball in for a strike. Dunn fouls off another one, and takes one outside for ball four. That'll end Hill's day, with Matt Albers coming in from the pen.
• Willingham works the count full, but Albers is able to get him swinging.
  

Top 7:

• Moeller hits a blooper into short left-field. Guzman ranges out and is a able to get a glove on it, but it falls in for a single.
• Izturis tries to drop down a sac bunt - can't - and then grounds into a double play.
• Albers will actually hit for himself, and he comes to the plate smiling. He's less happy after he strikes out swinging.
  

Bottom 7:

• Three groundouts in a quick inning for Albers.
  

Top 8:

• Ron Villone takes over for Zimmermann, who pitched well.
• Jones pulls a one-out single through the left side.
• Markakis flies out to right.
• Huff grounds out to end the inning.
  

Bottom 8:

• Jim Johnson comes out for the eighth.
• He blows a fastball by pinch-hitter (and former Oriole) Willie Harris for the strike-out.
• Guzman grounds out to first. Huff bobbles it, but is able to recover in time to flip to JJ covering to just get Guzman.
• Johnson can't hold up and goes down swinging.
  

Top 9:

• Jason Bergmann, who last time I checked was a starter, starts the ninth.
• Mora greets him with a single to left-field.
• Reimold pops out.
• Ty Wigginton, hitting for Moeller, grounds back to the mound. Bergmann starts the inning-ending double play. Still tied at 2-2.
  

Bottom 9:

• JJ is painting the corners to Zimmermann but not getting the calls. Johnson does get him to groundout though.
• Dunn grounds out to Roberts in short right-field.
• Willingham lines an 0-2 fastball to center for a single. It was 96 mph, but caught a little too much of the plate.
• Belliard grounds out to short, and we're going to extra innings.

Top 10:

• Izturis draws a lead-off walk.
• As Felix Pie comes to the plate, lefty Joe Beimel comes in from the pen for Washington.
• Pie drops down a sac bunt (couldn't someone else have done that - say, Jeremy Guthrie - so as not to waste a player?) moving Izturis to second.
• Roberts grounds out to third.
• With first base open and Markakis on-deck, the Nat's intentionally walk Jones.
• It works, as Beimel gets Nick to chase a high fastball to leave the runners stranded.
  

Bottom 10:

• Danys Baez is the new O's pitcher, and he gets Bard to groundout to second.
• Maxwell draws a walk.
• Austin Kearns pinch-hits and Baez gets him to ground into a double play.

Top 11:

• Kip Wells has a 6.00 ERA, but he is 2-for-2 in save opportunities.
• Huff grounds out to second.
• Gregg Zaun, who came in to catch when Moeller was pinch-hit for, flies out to center.
• Reimold flies out to left.
  

Bottom 11:

• Guzman grounds out to second.
• Johnson with a long flyball to center, but Jones is able to run it down in front of the wall.
• Zimmerman grounds out to short.

Top 12:

• Wigginton flies out to deep right. He just got it off the end of the bat a little bit.
  
• Izturis grounds out to short, with Guzman making a spinning throw after ranging far to his left to get to the ball.
• Baez up to hit now. This is why I hate both short benches and NL baseball. And Baez hits a slow chopper down the third-base line for an infield hit.
• Roberts drops a double just fair down the left-field line. The ball bounces into the stands though, so Baez has to stop at third (though they probably wouldn't have sent him anyway).
• Adam Jones with a rocket into the left-field corner. Here comes Baez as the go-ahead run (never thought I would ever type that) and Roberts as an insurance run. O's take a 4-2 lead.
  
• Markakis lines out to right. He's now 0-6 on the day.
  

Bottom 12:

• George Sherrill in for the save.
• Fastball gets Dunn looking.
• Willingham flies out to short center.
• Belliard hits a broken-bat line-drive to short to end the game.
  

The O's take the first game of the series 4-2, with Rich Hill pitching OK and the bullpen throwing 6.1 scoreless innings giving up only a hit and a walk. Brian Roberts went 3-6 with a couple of runs scored, Adam Jones went 3-5 with a walk and 3 RBI (including the game winner), and Nolan Reimold went 2-5 with the HR. And even though Danys Baez got a hit and scored the winning run I still don't like NL ball. It's not like all of the pinch-hitting is particularly complicated strategically (manager play it pretty much by the book) and it results in situations like a pitcher having to hit for himself in a tie game in extra-innings. Not that pitchers hitting in general is a good thing in my opinion anyway. Except Daniel Cabrera - that's just comedy gold.
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O's-Yankees, O's Fall To Drop Another One

The Orioles first visit to the new Yankee Stadium has gone exactly as planned. First it was CC Sabathia shutting down the Birds as Brad Bergesen and Chris Ray each gave up four runs (in 6.1 and 0 IP respectively) in a 9-1 loss in game one of the series. Then Phil Hughes K'ed 9 in his five decent innings for New York which Jeremy Guthrie couldn't match (5 R on 3 HR in 7 IP). Danys Baez let it get out of reach giving up four runs while only getting one out, and the O's fell in game two 11-4.

Game three has Adam Eaton and his 7.93 ERA (and 5.71 tRA) trying to contain the Yankees relatively potent attack, as the O's will try to scratch some runs out against Joba Chamberlain (3.76 ERA, 5.89 tRA and 40 K's in 40.2 IP).

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Top 1:

• Breaking-ball gets Brian Roberts looking.
• Adam Jones waves at a slider off the plate for strike one. That's the type of swing we saw a lot of last year. Jones connects with another one and lines it off of Joba, who is able to throw him out at first but may be hurt.
• After a few practice throws, it looks like Joba's OK. That doesn't stop Nick Markakis from singling into left-field though.
• Aubrey Huff lines a single into right, and the O's have runners on the corners with two down.
• Maybe Joba's not OK after all. Alfredo Aceves will come in from the pen and be given as much time as he needs to warm up.
• Melvin Mora flies out to short center to end the inning.
  

Bottom 1:

• Derek Jeter lines a double off the wall in right. Nick makes a nice barehand catch of the bounce and almost gets Jeter sliding into second.
• Robinson Cano lines a double into right-center. 1-0, Yankees. Looks like both bullpens will be getting some work today.
• Mark Teixeira lines a double into the right-field corner. 2-0, Yankees.
• A-Rod grounds out to third.
• Hideki Matsui grounds out to second.
• Nick Swisher draws a walk, after a passed ball had moved Tex to third.
• Melky Cabrera hits a line-drive to center that slices away from Adam Jones. Two runs score, but Jones' throw is able to cut Melky down at third for the final out.
  

Top 2:

• Nolan Reimold pops out to the catcher.
• Felix Pie pops out to first.
• Gregg Zaun works a walk.
• Robert Andino - in there for the injured Cesar Izturis - flies out to center.
  

Bottom 2:

• Fransisco Cervelli, the New York catcher, flies out to left.
• Brett Gardner draws a walk.
• Baltimore Chop off the plate by Jeter, but Eaton is able to throw him out.
• Cano with a rocket into the right-field seats. 6-0, NY. Eaton had been doing a nice job keeping the ball down, but he left that fastball up and out over the plate.
• Teixeira with an infield hit.
• A-Rod lines out to left. At least the O's have a chance against the Yankees' pen.
  

Top 3:

• Slider on the inside corner gets Roberts looking.
• Jones singles into left-field.
• Markakis singles through the right-side.
• Huff flies out to deep right, with Jones moving over to third.
• Mora grounds out to short and the O's fail to score again.
  

Bottom 3:

• Matsui strikes out swinging.
• Swisher grounds a ball up the middle for a single.
• Melky flies out to left.
• Cervelli grounds out to end the inning.
  

Top 4:

• Reimold singles into the whole, with Jeter only being able to knock the ball down.
• Pie pops out to A-Rod in foul territory.
• Zaun grounds to second, with Cano making a spinning throw to get the force at second. Nice play, even though they weren't able to turn two.
• Andino grounds out to second.
  

Bottom 4:

• Eaton finally has a perfect inning, retiring the side in order.
  

Top 5:

• Jon Albaladejo takes the mound to start the fifth, and gives up a home run to Brian Roberts on the first pitch he throws.
• Jones lines out to left, with Swisher making a completely unnecessary leap to catch it.
• Markakis grounds out to second.
• Huff grounds out to first. The O's are on the board, but still down 6-1.
  

Bottom 5:

• With two outs, Matsui takes one into the second deck in right to get the one run back. 7-1 now.
• Swisher draws a five-pitch walk. The 95th pitch will be Eaton's last - Brian Bass will try to eat some innings.
  
• Groundout to short ends the inning.
  

Top 6:

• Mora lines out to left.
  
• Reimold gets his second infield hit of the day on a slow roller down the third-base line.
• Fastball tails back over the middle of the plate to get Pie looking.
• Zaun drops a double down the left-field line. Another two-out scoring opportunity for the Birds.
• Ty Wigginton pinch-hits for Andino (and will play short?). He pulls a double down the line, and both runners come in to score.
• Roberts strikes out swinging this time.
  

Bottom 6:

• Cervelli strikes out swinging on a good fastball running in on his hands.
• Wiggington gets tested at short on a bouncer, and he's able to scoop it and make the running throw for the out.
• Jeter walks.
• Cano lines a single up the middle; he is really swinging the bat well.
• Teixeira walks to load the bases.
• A-Rod grounds to Mora, who steps on third for the out. Yanks threaten, but it's still 7-3.
  

Top 7:

• Jones lines out to center.
• Markakis takes a low fastball out to center to make it 7-4. That's Nick's seventh of the year, and it'll be the last pitch Albaladejo throws today. Jose Veras coming in.
• Huff grounds out to second.
• Mora with a high flyball to left, but Melky makes the catch at the track.
  

Bottom 7:

• Bass sets New York down 1-2-3.
  

Top 8:

• Reimold flies out to left.
• As does Pie.
  
• Zaun picks up his second hit of the game with a single to right.
• Wigginton picks up his second hit with a double to left-center. Potential tying un coming to the plate.
• Roberts hits it hard to center, but Gardner is there for the catch.
  

Bottom 8:

• George Sherrill in, presumably to get some work.
• Three up, three down go the Yankees.
  

Top 9:

• Mariano Rivera and his 22 to 1 strike-out to walk ratio going for the save.
• Adam Jones gets jammed and hits a little dribbler down the first-base line. Teixeira makes a sliding grab and throws to Mo covering for the out.
• Markakis pops out to second.
• Huff strikes out to end the game.
  

Adam Eaton got knocked around and may have cemented his exit from the rotation sooner rather than later. Brian Bass pitched well in relief, but the O's weren't able to come back all the way. It was nice to see that Wigginton can play a little short in a pinch, and Nick Markakis went 3-5 with a homer. The O's get swept in New York, and will now travel to Washington for round one of the Beltway series.
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