O's-Nationals, The Sweep Gets Dunn In

The O's go for the sweep against the Nationals today, with the Birds actually countering the Washington youngster on the mound - Shairon Martis - with one of their own in Brad Bergesen. Martis is 5-0 but has a 4.53 ERA and a 4.63 tRA, while Bergesen is 1-2 with a 5.35 ERA, a 5.29 FIP, and a 6.20 tRA. Despite those high runs allowed figures, this game has a good chance of following the last two as a pitching duel.

Bergesen's control has been pretty good (3.2 BB/9) but not quite as good as I would have expected and not nearly good enough to make up for his lack of strike-outs (4.3 K/9). He's getting a lot of groundballs (56%) but is still giving up 1.34 HR/9.

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Top 1:

• Brian Roberts swings at the first pitch of the game and flies out to left.
• Adam Jones flies out to left-center.
• Nick Markakis hits a long flyball to right, but Austin Kearns makes a jumping catch and is able to hang onto the ball as he crashes into the wall.
  

Bottom 1:

• Willie Harris doubles into the right-field corner.
• Christian Guzman grounds out to second, moving Harris over to third.
• Ryan Zimmerman hits a blooper towards second, with Roberts laying out to make the catch.
• Adam Dunn grounds out to first. Nice job by Bergesen to keep the Nationals off the board despite the lead-off double.
  

Top 2:

• Aubrey Huff lines a double off the wall in right - it was about a foot from clearing the fence for a home run.
• Ty Wigginton pops out to Adam Dunn in the foul territory near first-base, and Huff shows off his blazing speed by tagging up and taking third.
• Nolan Reimold strikes out looking. He started off to first-base since the 3-2 fastball was outside, but the ump rung him up.
• Chad Moeller hits a groundball up the middle, but Guzman is able to get to it and throw him out. Another lead-off double wasted.
  

Bottom 2:

• Josh Willingham grounds a single up the middle.
• Belliard strikes out swinging.
• Kearns grounds into a double play.
  

Top 3:

• Robert Andino flies out.
• Brad Bergesen hits the first pitch he sees in major league baseball back through the box for a single.
• Roberts draws a walk.
• Jones flies out to short right-center.
• Markakis drives a flyball to deep left-center, and nobody's going to rob him this time. The ball bounces off the wall and Nick is in with a two-run triple.
• Huff grounds out to second to end the inning, but the O's have taken a 2-0 lead.
  

Bottom 3:

• Wil Nieves hits a slow bouncer to the left side, with Wigginton charging to his left to scoop it and make the throw for the out.
• Martis grounds out to short.
  
• Harris squares around to bunt, and Bergesen's pitch bores down and in and hits him in the shin.
• Guzman strikes out swinging on a good slider inside under is hands.
  

Top 4:

• Wigginton flies out to left.
• Reimold pops out.
  
• Moeller hits a flyball to deep left - Willingham keeps going back on it, but it goes over his head and Chad is in with a double.
• Andino gets the intentional walk to bring Bergesen up.
• Another groundball up the middle, but Guzman gets to this one. The throw pulls Dunn off the bag though, and everybody's safe.
• Roberts flies out to left to leave the bases loaded.
  

Bottom 4:

• Zimmerman hits a high flyball to the track in center, but Jones is there to make the catch.
• Dunn pops out to short, though it's Wigginton making the catch with the infield shift they had on.
• Willingham send Jones back to the wall in center again, but the batter is retired.
  

Top 5:

• Jones gets hit on the hand and jogs off to first-base. He looks OK though.
• Adam gets thrown out stealing second, but the umpire misses the call. Markakis grounds sharply to Dunn, moving Jones to third.
• Huff hits a groundball through a drawn-in infield to extend the lead to 3-0.
• Wigginton pops out to first.
• Reimold pops out to short.
  

Bottom 5:

• Belliard flies out to deep center.
• Kearns drops a double just fair down the right-field line.
• Nieves lines a double down the first-base to get the Nationals on the board.
• Martis lines a single to center to make it 3-2. Jones made a string throw to the plate, but Moeller couldn't hang on to it.
• Harris flies out to left.
• Guzman grounds out to second to end the inning.
  

Top 6:

• Moeller grounds out to third.
• Andino strikes out.
• Bergesen is finally retired, on a groundball to third.
  

Bottom 6:

• Zimmerman lines a single into left-field.
• Dunn hits a flyball to deep center, and Jones won't be able to get to this one. He looks up as it clears the fence and gives the Nationals a 4-3 lead.
• Willingham grounds out to short.
• Belliard grounds to short.
• Kearns singles into short right-center.
• Chris Ray in fromthe pen to face Nieves, and he ends the inning with a groundout back to the mound.
  

Top 7:

• Roberts singles to center.
• Adam Jones got robbed of a home run to center yesterday, so he pulls one today. It clears the fence with plenty to spare, and the O's have retaken the lead 5-4.
• Ron Villone takes the mound with Markakis and Huff coming up.
• Nick pops out to third.
• Huff works a walk.
• Wigginton flies out to right-field.
• Reimold draws a walk - that's only his second of the season in 41 plate appearances.
  
• Moeller flies out to center to leave a couple stranded.
  

Bottom 7:

• Ray gets ahead of pinch-hitter Anderson Hernandez 0-2, but end up leaving a pitch out over the plate that Hernandez lines into right for a single.
• Harris gets jammed by a fastball inside but pulls it passed a diving Roberts for a single.
• Guzman drops a nice bunt down the third-base line, though Wigginton is able to throw him out by a step.
• With first-base open they're going to put Zimmerman on and bring Jamie Walker in to face Dunn. Felix Pie will also come in to play left-field.
  
• Adam Dunn hits a high flyball to left that Pie will not have a play on. Grand slam, and the Nationals are back ahead 8-5.
• Willingham lines out to left.
• Belliard grounds out to short.
  

Top 8:

• Joe Beimel takes the mound for Washington.
• Fantastic jumping catch by Kearns in foul territory to retire Andino. Actually, it looked better than it was because Kearns overran the ball initially - he didn't really need to jump for it.
  
• Pie strikes out swinging.
• Hernandez makes a diving catch at second to rob Roberts of a hit.
  

Bottom 8:

• Mark Hendrickson in to get some work.
• He gives up a single, but keeps the score at 8-5.
  

Top 9:

• Joel Hanrahan in for the save.
• Adam Jones can't catch up to a 96 mph fastball at the letters.
• Nick Markakis can't catch up to a 95 mph fastball right down the middle.
• Huff grounds out to second.
  

Another Sunday game, another loss for the Orioles. Adam Dunn was the big hero for Washington, hitting two home runs and driving in six. First place Toronto visits the Yard for a series starting tomorrow.
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O's-Nationals, Koji & The Pen Do It Again

Both pitching staffs did a good job yesterday, though the Orioles were able to pull a win out in extra innings. Today might be similar, as Baltimore has their best starter thus far on the hill in Koji Uehara (4.34 ERA, 3.38 tRA) while the Nationals counter with another young pitching prospect in 23 year-old left-hander Ross Detwiler (making his second career start).

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Top 1:

• Brian Roberts flies out to center.
• Adam Jones hits a long drive to center-field. It clears the fence by about two feet, but unfortunately Justin Maxwell has long arms and some leaping ability. The fantastic catch robs Jones of his tenth home run of the year, and keeps the O's off the board for the time being.
  
• Nick Markakis grounds out to first.
  

Bottom 1:

• Christian Guzman lines a splitter to the left side, but Cesar Izturis makes a great diving catch to retire him.
• Koji mixes his pitches well and gets Nick Johnson swinging at a fastball. He set it up by throwing a splitter low the previous pitch, before elevating the heater.
• Ryan Zimmerman pulls a single through the left side.
• Adam Dunn hits a hard grounder to first, but Ty Wigginton makes a diving stop and tags the bad with his hand to end the inning.
  

Top 2:

• O's go down in order. Detwiler reminds me a little of Adam Loewen - just with the way he throws. Lets hope he's able to stay healthier.
  

Bottom 2:

• Koji gives up a lead-off single, but leaves him stranded.
  

Top 3:

• Gregg Zaun gives the O's their first base-runner with a walk.
• Cesar Izturis grounds out to first.
• Koji draws a walk.
• Roberts walks. The bases are now loaded, and Detwiler looks even more like Loewen.
• Jones swings through a 93 mph fastball for strike three.
• Markakis hits a slow roller off the end of the bat, but by the time Zimmerman gets to it he has no play. Zaun scores to give the O's a 1-0 lead.
  
• Mora flies out to right to leave the bases loaded.
  

Bottom 3:

• Detwiler strikes out swinging at a splitter.
• Guzman flies out to left.
• Johnson draws a walk.
• Koji thought he had a K of Zimmerman with a fastball on the outside corner, but it was called a ball and Uehara subsequently walked him.
• Dunn with a long at bat, fouling off several pitches and running the count full before hitting a hard groundball that bounces off of the first-base bag. Wigginton is able to get to it in time to keep any runners from scoring, but the bases are loaded.
• Austin Kearns grounds out to third. Koji gets into trouble, but is able to keep the Nationals off the board.
  

Top 4:

• Aflac trivia question: who is the only Oriole to lead the league in HR outright? I'm going to go with Frank Robinson.
• Wigginton waves at a pitch (change-up, maybe) about a foot outside.
• Reimold pops out.
• Zaun pops out.
  

Bottom 4:

• I wonder if Koji is OK, because Brian Bass is out for the fourth.
  
• Willie Harris grounds out to first.
• Bard grounds out to first, with Wigginton ranging to his left to snag it before tossing to Bass covering.
• Maxwell grounds out to short. Bass (4.61 ERA but only 2 ER allowed in his last 20 IP) has done a good job for the team eating these middle innings recently.
  

Top 5:

• Izturis lines out to center.
• Bass strikes out looking.
• Roberts flies out to center.
  

Bottom 5:

• Detwiler grounds back to the mound.
  
• Guzman ties the game with a line-drive home run to right.
• Johnson hits a pop-up into short center-field. Izturis goes out while Jones comes in, and the ball drops between them. Looks like a little miscommunication.
• Zimmerman strikes out swinging.
• Dunn strikes out swinging.
  

Top 6:

• Aflac trivia answer: Frank Robinson. Yahtzee.
• Jones can't catch up to a 94 mph fastball upstairs.
• Markakis grounds out to second.
  
• Mora walks.
• Wigginton pops out.
  

Bottom 6:

• Kearns grounds out to third.
• Harris singles to right-field.
• Bard hits a slow grounder, but - being a catcher - the O's have plenty of time to turn the double play.
  

Top 7:

• Detwiler looked pretty good in his six innings, but won't be getting a decision. Julian Tavarez in from the Washington pen.
• Reimold grounds out to third.
• Zaun drops a double down the right-field line.
• Izturis grounds to short, with Guzman throwing to third to get a sliding Zaun. Base-running mistake there.
• That's it for Tavarez. With Aubrey Huff announced as the pinch-hitter, lefty Ron Villone will take the mound.
• Huff with a flyball to deep left-center field. The ball hits the top of the wall and bounces back onto the field, and Huff is in safely with an RBI triple.
• Roberts grounds out to third, but the O's have retaken the lead 2-1.
  

Bottom 7:

• Matt Albers making his second appearance in as many days.
• Maxwell strikes out looking.
  
• Josh Willingham, pinch-hitting, grounds out to third.
• Guzman flies out to center.
  

Top 8:

• Jones lines out to right against new pitcher Jason Bergmann.
  
• Markakis grounds out to second. Nick hasn't looked particularly good at the plate the last couple of days.
• Mora lines out to left.
  

Bottom 8:

• Jim Johnson taking his usual eighth inning spot, even with a couple of left-handed batters due up.
• The first one - Nick Johnson - draws a walk.
• Zimmerman lines out to Izturis.
• Dunn rips a single into right-field. Jamie Walker was ready at the start of the inning, and is still standing out in the pen. Just saying.
• Kearns hits a ball maybe a half-inch foul down the third-base line; then JJ gets him to ground into the inning-ending double play.
  

Top 9:

• Joel Hanrahan making his first appearance of the series.
• Wigginton swings at the first pitch and grounds out to short.
• Reimold hits a groundball to third that just eats up Zimmerman. Tough bounce, and Nolan is safe at first.
• Zaun pops out, with Reimold being doubled off of first.
  

Bottom 9:

• George Sherrill in for the save.
• Harris gets caught looking with a fastball.
• Bard can't check his swing on a slider in the dirt.
• Maxwell can't check his on a fastball at the knees. Ol' Flat Breezey strikes out the side
  

Who would have expected another pitching duel with these two teams? Detwiler was good, and so was Koji (more or less) before he left the game with a hamstring strain (no word yet on how serious it is). The bullpens mostly did their jobs, with the O's again being the team that was able to scratch a run across when they needed it. The Orioles only pick up 3 hits, but they take the game 2-1 and have guaranteed a win in the series.
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O's-Nationals, Birds Take It In Extra-Innings

The Beltway series starts out with a pretty intriguing pitching match-up. Rich Hill makes his second start of the year after picking up a victory in his solid debut in KC, while the Nationals send 22 year-old right-hander and top prospect Jordan Zimmermann (6.27 ERA, 5.71 tRA) to the mound. The game also features three of the top average hitters in the game with Christian Guzman's .373 BA placing him fourth, Adam Jones' .364 seventh, and Ryan Zimmerman's .353 ninth. Overall, Washington comes into the game with the major's worst record at 12-28 and the Orioles are third worst at 16-25.

In more general news, the O's have released Adam Eaton (it was expected, though perhaps not quite this soon). Eaton started out OK, but his season hasn't gone well (8.56 ERA, 6.32 tRA). I expect a youngster like David Hernandez to come up and take a rotation spot in the near future.

Anyways - as with last time, here's the Rich Hill's Pitch/FX data from FanGraphs:


I found it amusing that Hill dropped down again, once, to throw that "slider". It was to Adam Dunn, who fouled it off before drawing a walk. While it looks like his movement changed from his last start, the uniform difference of everything moving slightly to the left leads me to believe that it's an issue with the Pitch/FX system calibration on one of the two stadiums.

Statistically speaking , start #2 (5.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 4 BB, 6 K) looked a lot like start #1 (5.2 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K). The walks were up partly as a result of a worse ball-strike ratio (46-53 after 34-54), but he also got more groundballs which allowed him to erase a runner via a double play.

All six of his K's came on the curveball, with two looking and four swinging. Hill is still having a ton of problems with his fastball command, as only 37% of his pitches (overall) have been in the strike-zone (as opposed to around 50% as the league average) and lot of that is his fastball. The Pitch/FX didn't catch every pitch in his last start - and it's not exact - but it looks like he threw around a third of his fastballs in the strike zone and around 40% of his curveballs. The curve is a great pitch for him, but it will lose a lot of it's effectiveness if opposing batters know that Hill can't get his fastball over. Despite his solid first couple of starts (3.18 ERA, 3.78 FIP), Hill still has a lot to work on before he can be counted on as a long-term contributor to the rotation.

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Top 1:

• Zimmermann retires the O's in order, though Nick Markakis did put a scare into with a drive to the track in deep center-field.
  

Bottom 1:

• Guzman pops out to Huff in foul territory.
• Nick Johnson grounds out to second.
  
• Ryan Zimmerman grounds out to second, with Roberts making a nice back-hand stop and a spinning throw to get him.
  

Top 2:

• Aubrey Huff grounds out to third.
• Melvin Mora grounds out to second.
• Nolan Reimold just unloads on a fastball over the middle of the plate. O's take an early 1-0 on Reimold's second home run of the season.
• Chad Moeller chases a slider off the plate for strike three.
  

Bottom 2:

• Adam Dunn flies out to left.
• Hill walks Josh Willingham on five pitches, with three of them not even close.
• He goes to the breaking-ball against Ronnie Belliard and gets a couple of nice curves over for strikes before jamming him with a fastball inside. Unfortunately Belliard is able to muscle over the shortstop for a single.
• Josh Bard grounds sharply to short, which gives the O's plenty of time to turn the double play.
  

Top 3:

• Cesar Izturis, back in the line-up, flies out to left.
• Hill strikes out swinging.
• Roberts lines a double into the right-field corner.
• Jones singles to left, with Roberts getting in just ahead of the throw (which wasn't held onto anyway).
• Markakis flies out to left, but the O's have extended their lead to 2-0.
  

Bottom 3:

• Justin Maxwell takes a big breaking curveball on the outside corner for strike three.
• Zimmermann (the pitcher) swing over the top of a breaking-ball for Hill's second K.
• As does Guzman. Hill uses the curveball to strike out the side.
  

Top 4:

• Huff grounds out to second.
• Mora strikes out looking.
• Reimold hits a groundball up the middle. Belliard ranges over to his right to get it, but doesn't attempt a throw as Nolan is safe at first with an infield single.
• Moeller flies out to left to end the inning.
  

Bottom 4:

• Nick Johnson pulls a single through the right side.
• Zimmerman drives a fastball just over the wall in right-center to tie the game at 2-2.
• Dunn checks his swing and flies out to left. Show you how strong the man is that he could take a half-swing and still hit the ball 300 ft. to the opposite field.
• Willingham draws another walk. Hill picks him off though, with Huff making the throw to second to get him as he took off.
  
• Another curveball swung and missed - this time by Belliard - for the strike-out.
  

Top 5:

• Izturis waves at a breaking-ball for strike three.
• Hill strikes out swinging a well.
• Roberts lines a single up the middle.
• Jones flies out to deep center.
  

Bottom 5:

• 3-2 curveball on the inside corner gets Bard looking. That tells you which pitch Hill feels he can throw for a strike when he needs to.
  
• Maxwell grounds out to second.
• Curveball gets Zimmermann swinging for a second time.
  

Top 6:

• Markakis lines out to left.
• Huff pops out.
• Mora does a nice job working a walk.
• Reimold grounds out to short.
  

Bottom 6:

• Guzman grounds out to short.
  
• Johnson draws a walk.
• Zimmerman hits a slow roller to short, but the O's are only able to get the force at second.
• Hill falls behind Dunn 3-1 and drops a nice curveball in for a strike. Dunn fouls off another one, and takes one outside for ball four. That'll end Hill's day, with Matt Albers coming in from the pen.
• Willingham works the count full, but Albers is able to get him swinging.
  

Top 7:

• Moeller hits a blooper into short left-field. Guzman ranges out and is a able to get a glove on it, but it falls in for a single.
• Izturis tries to drop down a sac bunt - can't - and then grounds into a double play.
• Albers will actually hit for himself, and he comes to the plate smiling. He's less happy after he strikes out swinging.
  

Bottom 7:

• Three groundouts in a quick inning for Albers.
  

Top 8:

• Ron Villone takes over for Zimmermann, who pitched well.
• Jones pulls a one-out single through the left side.
• Markakis flies out to right.
• Huff grounds out to end the inning.
  

Bottom 8:

• Jim Johnson comes out for the eighth.
• He blows a fastball by pinch-hitter (and former Oriole) Willie Harris for the strike-out.
• Guzman grounds out to first. Huff bobbles it, but is able to recover in time to flip to JJ covering to just get Guzman.
• Johnson can't hold up and goes down swinging.
  

Top 9:

• Jason Bergmann, who last time I checked was a starter, starts the ninth.
• Mora greets him with a single to left-field.
• Reimold pops out.
• Ty Wigginton, hitting for Moeller, grounds back to the mound. Bergmann starts the inning-ending double play. Still tied at 2-2.
  

Bottom 9:

• JJ is painting the corners to Zimmermann but not getting the calls. Johnson does get him to groundout though.
• Dunn grounds out to Roberts in short right-field.
• Willingham lines an 0-2 fastball to center for a single. It was 96 mph, but caught a little too much of the plate.
• Belliard grounds out to short, and we're going to extra innings.

Top 10:

• Izturis draws a lead-off walk.
• As Felix Pie comes to the plate, lefty Joe Beimel comes in from the pen for Washington.
• Pie drops down a sac bunt (couldn't someone else have done that - say, Jeremy Guthrie - so as not to waste a player?) moving Izturis to second.
• Roberts grounds out to third.
• With first base open and Markakis on-deck, the Nat's intentionally walk Jones.
• It works, as Beimel gets Nick to chase a high fastball to leave the runners stranded.
  

Bottom 10:

• Danys Baez is the new O's pitcher, and he gets Bard to groundout to second.
• Maxwell draws a walk.
• Austin Kearns pinch-hits and Baez gets him to ground into a double play.

Top 11:

• Kip Wells has a 6.00 ERA, but he is 2-for-2 in save opportunities.
• Huff grounds out to second.
• Gregg Zaun, who came in to catch when Moeller was pinch-hit for, flies out to center.
• Reimold flies out to left.
  

Bottom 11:

• Guzman grounds out to second.
• Johnson with a long flyball to center, but Jones is able to run it down in front of the wall.
• Zimmerman grounds out to short.

Top 12:

• Wigginton flies out to deep right. He just got it off the end of the bat a little bit.
  
• Izturis grounds out to short, with Guzman making a spinning throw after ranging far to his left to get to the ball.
• Baez up to hit now. This is why I hate both short benches and NL baseball. And Baez hits a slow chopper down the third-base line for an infield hit.
• Roberts drops a double just fair down the left-field line. The ball bounces into the stands though, so Baez has to stop at third (though they probably wouldn't have sent him anyway).
• Adam Jones with a rocket into the left-field corner. Here comes Baez as the go-ahead run (never thought I would ever type that) and Roberts as an insurance run. O's take a 4-2 lead.
  
• Markakis lines out to right. He's now 0-6 on the day.
  

Bottom 12:

• George Sherrill in for the save.
• Fastball gets Dunn looking.
• Willingham flies out to short center.
• Belliard hits a broken-bat line-drive to short to end the game.
  

The O's take the first game of the series 4-2, with Rich Hill pitching OK and the bullpen throwing 6.1 scoreless innings giving up only a hit and a walk. Brian Roberts went 3-6 with a couple of runs scored, Adam Jones went 3-5 with a walk and 3 RBI (including the game winner), and Nolan Reimold went 2-5 with the HR. And even though Danys Baez got a hit and scored the winning run I still don't like NL ball. It's not like all of the pinch-hitting is particularly complicated strategically (manager play it pretty much by the book) and it results in situations like a pitcher having to hit for himself in a tie game in extra-innings. Not that pitchers hitting in general is a good thing in my opinion anyway. Except Daniel Cabrera - that's just comedy gold.
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Not Quite King Of The Hill

Last year the Nationals cut injury plagued right-handed pitcher John Patterson, and I suggested that the Orioles look into picking him up. The team didn't, and Patterson is out of baseball now.

The Nationals have cut injury plagued right-handed pitcher Shawn Hill today. I was going to suggest that the Orioles look into picking him up, but stopped myself. Sometimes one really does learn from the past.

Best of luck to Hill, who was often effective when he's actually on the mound. Read more ...

O's-Nats, Danny Being Danny

Orioles and Nationals facing off in a Spring Training game.

It's weird seeing Daniel Cabrera in another uniform. He is fifth all-time amongst O's pitchers with a K/9 of 6.96. I'm anxious to see David Pauley pitch, so I'm glad they're broadcasting the game.

The Nats also have former O's Alex Cintron and Corey Patterson in their line-up.

Top 1:

• Pauley has good movement on his fastball, but Christian Guzman serves one to left for a lead-off single.
• After getting ahead 1-2, he gets Cintron swinging way out in front of a change-up. He does indeed have good arm-action on it.
  
• It's nice to here Buck Martinez and Jim Hunter.
• Kory Casto flies out to Felix Pie and his high socks in left.
• Brad Eldred breaks his bat on a bloop single. It wasn't the best pitch, so a single isn't the worst thing that could have happened - especially gi
• Oh Corey, how I've missed you. First-pitch fastball down out of the zone - and a mighty swing and a miss. Change-up outside - and a mighty swing and a miss. Tailing fastball on the inside corner for a called strike-three.
• I like the look of this Pauley kid. He may never be better than a #4 starter, but that was surely worth Randor Bierd (who I also miss terribly).

Bottom 1:

• The O's have a legit line-up out there today.
• I missed Daniel too. First pitch to Brian Roberts is a high fastball for ball one. And hard grounder off Eldred's glove at first results in a lead-off single.
• Adam Jones batting in the two-hole. I think swapping Jones and Markakis would actually be the more efficient thing to do. Jones takes a ball and a strike before waving at a breaking-ball way outside. On a 2-2 fastball, Adam lines a fastball to center putting runners on the corners for Nick.
• Markakis doesn't appear to be crouching quite as much as he was last year. A bouncer to second brings in Roberts and moves Jones over. 1-0 O's.
• Cabrera starts Huff off with a really nice curveball for a called strike. Adam Jones steals third pretty easily, and Huff works Daniel for a walk. Runners on the corners again.
• Huff steals second on the first pitch - a ball - to Ty Wigginton. Yikes. I really feel for Daniel; I hope he figures it out eventually. He walks Wiggy on five pitches to load the bases.
• Fastball high to Scott for ball one. Fastball high to Scott for ball two. Daniel comes back to get him though, with Luke failing to check his swing on yet on high fastball on a 3-2 count.
• Washington's 2007 first-round draft pick, Ross Detwiler, is already warming up.
• Pie swings at the first pitch he sees (doesn't he know who's pitching?) and lines what looks like a bases-clearing double to left-center. The left-fielder robs him with an inning ending diving catch, though.
  

Top 2:

• Jose Castillo grounds to short, but Ryan Freel overthrows Huff at first and Castillo moves to second on the error. Not what I wanted to see from Freely at shortstop - maybe it was Farney.
  
• Roger Bernadina doubles right down the first-base line for a game-tying RBI double.
• Pauley comes back to strike Justin Maxwell out looking with an 89 mph heater on the outside corner. If he can't make it as a starter, I think Pauley could be a pretty solid middle reliever - it's not the most glamorous job, but somebody has to do it.
  
• A grounder by Wil Nieves to Freel's right is handled cleanly for out number two.
• Guzman grounds out to second to end the inning. Keep the ball down; throw strikes; and mix your pitches. It works.
  

Bottom 2:

• Robby Hammock pops out to start the second.
• Freel hits a ball to deep left, but Bernadina robs another Oriole with a diving catch. If only the Nationals didn't have thirty outfielders looking for roster spots.
• Roberts singles to left this time. Nice to have a quality lead-off man on the team.
• Jones lines a single to right, but Roberts has to stop a second this time. Buck is talking about how batting second will make Adam more patient. I will say again that batting Nick (and his .400 OBP) in that spot make a lot more sense.
• Daniel is so deliberate to the plate that Roberts and Jones are able to pull off a double steal. It looked like Adam - who had to lag behind a little when Roberts ran - might have been out, but it was a bang-bang play. Cabrera ends the threat by striking Nick out swinging on a 3-2 breaking-ball down and in.
  

Top 3:

• An easy bouncer to first retires Cintron for the first out.
• Castro grounds slightly more sharply back to Pauley - he takes a second to find the ball after knocking it down, and throws to Huff at first for the out.
• Eldred showing that big power, hitting a long flyball to left. Pie settles under it at the wall though, and makes the catch. Easy three-up, three-down.
  

Bottom 3:

• Cabrera's done, with Detwiler coming in to face Huff. Aubrey draws a walk for the second time.
• Wigginton grounds the first pitch to third, erasing Huff with the double play.
• Scott doubles down the right-field line, to sporadic yells of LUUUKE.
• Pie hits a hard grounder to third that Casto dives for, but Felix is able to beat the throw to first.
• Hammock singles through the left side to give the O's a 2-1 lead.
  

Top 4:

• George "Flat Breezy" Sherrill in now. I was bothered the last couple innings because Pauley reminded me of someone but I couldn't figure out who. Then I got it and kind of laughed... Roy Halladay. Well, a much crappier version of 'Doc'. The motion and pitches (minus a few levels of "stuff" quality) are similar, maybe. I'll take a closer look the next time Pauley's on the mound.
  
• Korey (Patterson) strikes out swinging on a high fastball.
• Castillo doubles over Jones' in right-center to bring up Mr. Twice-Diving-RBI-Doubling BernadinA.
• Bernie (no idea if that's actually his nickname) grounds out to second, with Castillo moving over to third with two outs.
• Maxwell flied out to center and the inning is over.
  

Bottom 4:

• Preston Larrison (who?) goes 3-2 on Roberts before walking him. Brian has been on base all three times today.
• And so has Adam Jones, who gets hit with a pitch as he's pulling his bunt attempt back. Do they double steal again?
• Yup. And they pull it off again. That's six steals on the day (two by Roberts and three by Jones) for the O's. Hey, as long as they're making it safely I'm all for going crazy on the base-paths. Just as long as they stop when the caught stealing's start piling up.
• Markakis goes down looking an a 3-2 something-or-other that Nick thought was high.
• Huff singles up the middle to drive in two, making it 4-1. And Buck is saying that without the double steal they wouldn't have scored. Maybe then Nick would have hit a three-run homer. It doesn't work that way Buck - the team really can score a whole bunch of runs without running a lot. I know - I've seen them do it.
• Wigginton flies to right for the second out.
• Matt Wieters is batting for Scott. It's my first look at the future Hall of Famer. He shows a good eye in working the count full, and a good swing to double into the left-field corner to drive in Huff and make it 5-1. I still don't think he'll put up a .939 OPS this year thoug (unlike PECOTA).
  
• Lefty Mike Hinckley in to face Pie, who bounces to second. The throw by Castillo isn't even close to Eldred, and Wieters scores while Pie takes second. 6-1 O's.
• Hammock pops out to short and the inning is over, but not before the Orioles put four on the board.
  

Top 5:

• Jamie Walker is hoping to not give up 7 HR to lefties this year.
• He gets Nieves swinging on a change-up for the first out.
• Guzman lines the first pitch he sees right to Adam Jones in center.
• Cintron singles, but Castillo grounds out to second to end the inning.
• These are the kinds of O's games I could get used to.
  

Bottom 5:

• Hinckley retires the O's in order, keeping Roberts and Jones off base for the first time today.
  

Top 6:

• Dennis Sarfate in, along with a bunch of defensive replacements.
• He blows the first batter away with a fastball - I've waited several months to be able to type that again.
• The gun says 91-93, but it looks a whole lot faster than that and he's making the catcher's mit pop.
• Jorge Padilla goes down looking on a fastball on the outside corner.
• Castillo bounces one to third, where Wigginton has to handle a tough hop and can't make the throw in-time.
• Bernadina flies to Pie to end the inning.
• Until that last batter, Sarfate was really pounding the strike-zone with that fastball. If he can cut down on his walks, he could be a really useful guy out of the pen to go along with Sherrill, Johnson, and Ray. A light-out bullpen would go a long way towards making the rotation problems seem less severe.
  

Bottom 6:

• Nick Markakis looking to not strike out against Steven Shell. And he sure doesn't, lining a single to center field. Jolbert Cabrera is in to run for him at first.
• Craig Brazzell flies out to short center-field on the first pitch he sees in the game.
• Whoever was hitting before Matt Wieters made an out.
• Matt Wieters also made an out. I honestly didn't see that one coming.
  

Top 7:

• Also getting my first look at Chris Tillman now. And Nolan Reimold in left.
• Tillman is tall and lanky, so he may pick up some more velocity as he fills out. The ball does seem to explode out of his hand though.
• Maxwell gets a flyball into the wind and makes it to third on a triple off the wall in right.
• Nick Markakis is being interviewed on the sidelines. It's funny to here him refer to Adam Jones and Felix Pie as young kids.
• A groundball to third brings in the Nationals' second run of the day.
• One out later, Tillman issues the first O's walk of the day. That's the main thing standing between Chris and the majors, but at 20 years of age he still has quite a bit of time to work on that.
• He ends the inning with a strike-out on a high fastball.
  

Bottom 7:

• Justin Turner (from the Ramon Hernandez trade) hits a two-out single to left, but he's left stranded. 6-2 Birds.
  

Top 8:

• A single, a double, and a strike-out for Tillman in his second inning of work.
  

Bottom 8:

• O's go down 1-2-3.
  

Top 9:

• Fredy Deza in for the ninth. Throws hard(ish) but falls of the mound and his control isn't good
• That doesn't stop him from K'ing the first batter with that heater.
• A line-out and aa groundout ends the game
  

The pitchers looked good (minus some minor control issues from Tillman). It's really nice to have baseball back. Read more ...

Florida's Annual Salary Dump

Florida has been busy wheeling and dealing already this off-season, completing three trades.

Trade 1

Florida gets:

Leo Nunez, 24 year-old RHRP, 2.98 ERA, 4.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.22 tRA, 128 tRA+ in 48.3 IP. Not arbitration eligible yet. Despite the nice stats he isn't a particularly good reliever - more 6th/7th inning than 9th.

Kansas City gets:

Mike Jacobs, 27 year-old first-baseman, .247/.299/.514, 32 HR, .338 wOBA, 103 wOBA+. Eligible for arbitration for the first time. Lots of power and pretty much nothing else.

The Marlins save money and can just shift Jorge Cantu (or whoever) over to first without seeing any loss overall. Jacobs' defense and OBP are so bad that guys with as much value can be found lying around the minors. In fact, the Royals have Ryan Shealy (.301/.354/.603 in 73 AB) and Kila Ka'aihue (about .316/.455/.629 with 37 HR between AA and AAA) ready to take over for Ross Gload (.273/.317/.348) at first on the cheap. The Marlins didn't get a whole heck of a lot in this deal, but then neither did the Royals.

Trade 2

Florida gets:

Emilio Bonifacio, 23 year-old second-baseman, .248/.305/.344 in limited time in for the Nats and .302/.348/.387 in Triple-A. Maybe a future Tony Womack... maybe.

Jake Smolinski, 19 year-old second-baseman, .261/.338/.402 in low A-ball. "Smolinski is your basic B-level prospect whose value could easily go way up or way down in 2009." - fangraphs

P.J. Dean, 19 year-old RHP, 1.57 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9 in low A-ball. The low HR-rate in consecutive years (0.3 HR/9 in 2007) indicates he gets some groundballs, but I can't find any info on that. "He is a young, projectable right-hander who currently throws 90-92 mph with room to grow. Dean also has a curveball with plus potential and a developing change-up." - fangraphs

Washington gets:

Scott Olson, 24 year-old LHSP, 4.20 ERA, 5.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 5.38 tRA, 87 tRA+. Strike-out rate and velocity falling but a lefty that can throw 200 innings is nice to have around. Still, his stats don't match up to his reputation. Eligible for arbitration for the first time, I think.

Josh Willingham, 29 year-old outfielder, .254/.364/.470, 15 HR, .376 wOBA, 113 wOBA+. The guy can hit but the outfield defense is not very good and he'll start the 2009 season at 30 years old. Also eligible for arbitration for the first time, I think.

It's not a bad trade for the Marlins, but it seems like they should have been able to get more for two established (though probably overrated) major-leaguers. It's not a bad deal for the Nationals either, but why would they be giving up even mediocre prospects for guys who likely won't be around by the time the Nats make the playoffs.

Trade 3

Florida gets:

Jose Ceda, 21 year-old RHRP, 2.08 ERA, 12.5 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9 in 30.1 IP at AA. Has a live arm and could end up as a closer in a couple years.

Chicago Cubs get:

Keving Gregg, 30 year-old RHRP, 3.41 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.85 tRA, 114 tRA+. He's a decent reliever but ended up getting 29 saves as the closer more by default than ability.

It seems that the Cubs are going to cut Kerry Wood loose (he's a free-agent) and let Gregg or Carlos Marmol close. Wood is better than Gregg, and considering the home-town discount I assume Wood would give Chicago and the six lost years of control of Ceda I don't see this as a good trade for the Cubs. I thought that teams were passed looking at the saves column but I guess not. Another cost-cutting move by the Marlins while picking up a nice prospect. Maybe they'll put Leo Nunez in Gregg's spot, let him rack up some saves, and then deal him once he starts getting expensive himself. Read more ...

Winning Is What It's All About

[I was late in seeing this, but I still thought it was worth mentioning. Balester gave up one hit in 5 IP and got the win, by the way. He was knocked around his next time out, but that's besides the point.]

And I thought that we had all moved beyond the point where Wins are the way a pitcher's talent is measured.

"Jim Bowden was honest with Collin Balester in Spring Training when he told the Nationals' pitching prospect that he wanted to see wins, not just good pitching. Balester took it to heart, and on Tuesday night, he will for the first time in his life be called upon as a Major League pitcher...

"'If you want to get to us,' he told Balester, 'you have to win. I don't want to see .500 down there with great stuff. What does that do for me?'"

That's from an MLB.com article, and the guy from FireJimBowden is not happy.

"Even if JimBo's not really relying on W-L record to evaluate pitchers in the way he says (in which case, I don't know why he's saying it), what does that do to a kid's head to be told, in essence, "your future as a major-leaguer is largely out of your hands. You can pitch great. Do everything right in your power, and if you don't get run support, or if the defense makes Es, or if the bullpen blows your leads... we will blame you." If you're Balester, I don't know how else you'd take it."

I might have reacted similarly if Bowden was the O's GM. While I don't know if Andy MacPhail is eschewing Wins completely in favor of FIP and the like, I have to think he's ahead of Bowden in this respect. Read more ...

Who's Between Second And Third?

Ken Rosenthal has some O's trade rumors:

"The Orioles, desperately seeking a shortstop, have engaged in substantive conversations with the Nationals about a trade for infielder Felipe Lopez, according to major league sources.

The Nationals reportedly are close to signing shortstop Cristian Guzman to a two-year contract extension for an unknown dollar amount and are unlikely to retain Lopez as a free agent after this season.

In return for Lopez, the Nationals likely would receive a marginal minor-league prospect.

The Orioles have been looking for help at shortstop ever since trading Miguel Tejada to the Astros last off-season.

Lopez is hitting .247 with 25 runs and 20 RBI.

If a deal is completed, it likely would not be announced until after the completion of the Orioles-Nationals series this weekend in Washington, sources say."

Really? The O's think Felipe Lopez will solve their shortstop problems? The guy is hitting 247 / 321 / 331. His EqA is .232, and his career high (three years ago) is just .286. He has a negative VORP (-0.6). Oh, and his defense is not good. He's -2 Win Shares Above Bench this year, and was -2 last year. Compare that to Alex Cintron, who's hitting 268 / 293 / 357 with a .221 EqA, a and 0 WSAB. He plays worse defense. Yes, Lopez is better, but the upgrade isn't worth $4 million (well, $2 million for the rest of the year). And it's certainly not worth anyone who could ever sniff the majors.

If I'm AM, then shortstop is a necessity as part of the veteran trades I make before the deadline (Bradford, Walker, Sherrill, Roberts, etc.) - maybe more than one SS. Read more ...

O's-Nats, Olson King Of The Hill

It's been a while since I watched an O's game live. Tonight it'll be game one of the Beltway Series - Garrett Olson opposes Shawn Hill.

Felipe Lopez pulls a pitch through the left side for a single; Christian Guzman pulls one into left for a ground-rule double; and Ryan Zimmerman pulls one down the left-field line for a single. Three batters in, and it's 2-0 Nationals. Olson settles down, retiring the next three hitters (including getting Aaron Boone swinging on a very good fastball at the knees).

I've only occasionally seen the Nats play, but from everything I've heard, Zimmerman is an excellent defensive third baseman. He shows it, charging a slow roller off the bat of Melvin Mora and smoothly throwing him out at first. 1-2-3 go the O's in the first.

Jesus Flores lines one right over Olson's head for a single. Next up is Wily Mo Pena - he hits a line-drive too, but Brian Roberts makes a diving catch to retire him. Elijah Dukes swings at the first pitch and grounds into a double play to end the inning. Five pitch inning for Garrett.

Aubrey Huff barely beats out a grounder that Aaron Boone can't initially handle at first, but the umpire calls him out - it was bang-bang. Millar does his thing and works a walk. With two outs, Ramon bloops a single into left. Millar takes too wide of a turn around second though, and gets thrown out to end the inning. More bad baserunning from the O's.

A Zimmerman single off a diving Mora's glove is all the Nats get in the third.

Another deflected ball - this one off of Hill's glove - results in an infield single for Adam Jones. Bynum goes down swinging on a fastball down and away. Brian Roberts gets a pitch down and away, and flicks it over the third baseman for a single. Mora walks to load the bases for Kakes. For some reason the runners were moving on the pitch - no harm, no foul, I guess. Nick protects on a pitch just off the outside corner (thanks for not striking out looking) and grounds it to third. The throw to second gets Mora, but the relay goes past Young at first allowing another run to score. That ties the game at 2-2, and Markakis gets an RBI (since it wasn't a double play).

Another inning starts with a line-drive single - this one off the bat of Boone. Bynum's less than strong arm is on display as he ranges to his right but can't throw out Lastings Milledge (who is admittedly a fast runner). Flores singles to right to load the bases with nobody out. Houdini time. One down, as Wily Mo strikes out on three pitches. Matt Albers is warming in the pen - it seems a bit early for that. Dukes flies deep to left to bring in the Nationals' third run. Lopez lines out to center to end the threat. Not a Houdini, but the damage was kept low. Olson has given up three runs on eight hits, but he hasn't walked a batter and hasn't looked bad at all (not too good either, though).

Now that's the power I was waiting for. Luuuuuuke (too many 'u's?) ties the game with a home run. He got a low and away pitch and launched it into right-center. Adam Jones picks up his second hit of the game with a single to left. Wily Mo dives (probably unnecessarily) to retire Bynum and end the inning.

Melvin ranges far to his right (into foul territory) and throws out Guzman to start the fifth. Nice play. Now it's Bynum going to the outfield grass to field a Zimmerman grounder. The throw pulls Millar off that bag though, and Ryan has his third hit. Young goes down swinging on three pitches. Olson hits Boone with a curveball that broke too far, but makes up for it be spearing a liner off the bat of Millidge.

Nice start to the bottom of the fifth, as Brian triples off the scoreboard in right. Mora lifts a ball to right-center, but neither outfielder makes a play on it and Mora is in there with an RBI double. Markakis goes down looking - it was indeed a strike but he clearly thought it wasn't. Too bad he couldn't move Mora to third. Huff grounds back to Hill, who catches Mora in between second and third. Good job by Melvin to at least get into a rundown long enough to allow Huff to go to second. Millar comes though with the two-out single to bring in Huff. More bad baserunning though, as Kevin gets thrown out trying to go to second. Still, the O's have taken a 5-3 lead.

That's it for Olson, as Albers comes in from the pen. Garrett's final line: 5 IP, 9 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 3 K; only 70 pitches with 51 going for strikes. Not a bad day at all. Albers isn't throwing strikes and walks Flores. He continues not throwing strikes, but Dukes and Lopez help him out by going down swinging. I imagine he'll be back for another inning - hopefully the Nats don't decide to take some pitches.

Matt Chico relieves Hill and retires the Birds in order.

With two outs, Dmitri Young singles into the Bermuda Triangle in short left field. Albers gets Boone swinging for the third out. That's three K's for Matt, in two innings. He and JJ give the O's two very good long-men in the pen.

Another 1-2-3 inning for Chico.

Albers is still in there, and the Nats are still swinging. Millidge grounds to deep short, but again Bynum can't throw his out from the outfield grass. He seems to have OK range, but the arm isn't shortstop quality. Not that too many guys would have gotten Millidge there. That'll be it for Matt - he did a good job. Looks like JJ has become the teams official set-up man, as he is brought in in the eighth. That kind of makes Bradford and/or Walker expendable. Johnson gets Flores looking with a knee-buckler. Another bender gets Pena swinging. Man, has he looked good this year. That's why you don't spend a lot of money on mediocre relievers - get a bunch of fringe starters and castoffs and see what sticks. The list of guys who have struggles as starters but turned into solid relievers is pretty darn long. Oh the movement. A 2-2 fastball at the knees gets Dukes looking, as JJ strikes out the side. Very impressive.

Nick Markakis starts the eighth with a rare double - that's just his 5th of the year. Strange, since he had 43 last year. Huff flies out to center, and Kakes does a nice job tagging and going to third. Millar can't bring him in, as new pitcher Jesus Colome gets him swinging. Jay Payton (in for defense the previous inning for Scott) grounds out on the first pitch to leave Nick stranded. It'll be George Sherrill time in the ninth with the 5-3 lead.

Lopez grounds to Millar, with Sherrill covering first - one out. Guzman pops out to second - two outs. And that's it, as Zimmerman lines one right to Millar at first. That O's are lifting up the bills of their hats, and that mean Sherrill picks up his 16th save of the year. The O's continue their winning ways, taking the first game of the series 5-3. Olson battle through five and gets the win, with Albers and Johnson providing quality work out of the pen. Not that it's really appropriate, but I think I'm gonna watch that Orioles Magic video again. Read more ...

Apparently, The Nationals Have Some Pitching Depth

John Patterson has been released by the Washington Nationals.

"Patterson, the Nationals' Opening Day starter in 2007, was limited to 15 starts in 2006 and '07 because of a series of nerve problems in his right arm and elbow... Patterson's velocity, though, was noticeably down in his last two spring outings... Patterson, 30, has a career record of 18-25 and a long history of injuries. He has only once made 30 starts in the majors, and has never thrown 200 innings... This opens a spot in the rotation for either Matt Chico or John Lannan."

It's a pretty surprising move, but mostly because his name is "John Patterson". The guy has exactly one season with more than 100 IP. If the loss in velocity is going to keep his K/9 down (4.4 in '07, 9.2 in '06, (both in a small number of innings), 8.4 in '05 (his 198 IP season)) and his BB/9 up (6.4 in '07, 0.9 in '06, 3.0 in '05) then he shouldn't have a spot in the rotation - especially when he can't be counted on for innings. I think that the potential he showed in 2005 isn't going to come back, but he could be a useful #4 type starter if he avoids the injury bug.

The O's could always take a chance on him - he can't be worse than Steve Trachsel. If he's (relatively) healthy and (relatively) productive in the first half, he could be traded for a prospect or two at the deadline. If he gets hurt again, they don't really lose anything. It's low-risk, medium-reward. It's also the kind of thing a team with money to burn can do to improve its long-term success. Why not pay all of a guy's contract to get better players in a trade? Sign a guy cheaply that may do well (with low probability), and then if he does, send him packing; if not, cut him. A few years ago, I had an off-season plan that would have netted a Ken Griffey Jr. - Alex Rodriguez - Jason Giambi middle of the order without giving up much more than cash (and the O's would only have had to pay about 1/2 of their contracts). Buying low on guys with quality skills, but poor seasons, who have large contracts is a way to improve a team when you have the payroll space. Signing Griffey on the free-agent market to 7 years 120 million dollars is crazy. Trading a middling pitching prospect for Griffey at 3 years 45 million dollars is getting pretty good value (not great, but he is still a legit middle-of-the-order bat); especially when that 45 million would otherwise just be going into the owner's pockets. If the O's could have gotten JR Towles from Houston by paying all of Tejada's remaining contract, then they should have done it. [Yes, I know they have Wieters on the way, but Towles could keep the spot warm for him for a couples years, and then be traded before he's even arbitration eligible for a good return.] Read more ...