Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Apparently, The Nationals Have Some Pitching Depth

John Patterson has been released by the Washington Nationals.

"Patterson, the Nationals' Opening Day starter in 2007, was limited to 15 starts in 2006 and '07 because of a series of nerve problems in his right arm and elbow... Patterson's velocity, though, was noticeably down in his last two spring outings... Patterson, 30, has a career record of 18-25 and a long history of injuries. He has only once made 30 starts in the majors, and has never thrown 200 innings... This opens a spot in the rotation for either Matt Chico or John Lannan."

It's a pretty surprising move, but mostly because his name is "John Patterson". The guy has exactly one season with more than 100 IP. If the loss in velocity is going to keep his K/9 down (4.4 in '07, 9.2 in '06, (both in a small number of innings), 8.4 in '05 (his 198 IP season)) and his BB/9 up (6.4 in '07, 0.9 in '06, 3.0 in '05) then he shouldn't have a spot in the rotation - especially when he can't be counted on for innings. I think that the potential he showed in 2005 isn't going to come back, but he could be a useful #4 type starter if he avoids the injury bug.

The O's could always take a chance on him - he can't be worse than Steve Trachsel. If he's (relatively) healthy and (relatively) productive in the first half, he could be traded for a prospect or two at the deadline. If he gets hurt again, they don't really lose anything. It's low-risk, medium-reward. It's also the kind of thing a team with money to burn can do to improve its long-term success. Why not pay all of a guy's contract to get better players in a trade? Sign a guy cheaply that may do well (with low probability), and then if he does, send him packing; if not, cut him. A few years ago, I had an off-season plan that would have netted a Ken Griffey Jr. - Alex Rodriguez - Jason Giambi middle of the order without giving up much more than cash (and the O's would only have had to pay about 1/2 of their contracts). Buying low on guys with quality skills, but poor seasons, who have large contracts is a way to improve a team when you have the payroll space. Signing Griffey on the free-agent market to 7 years 120 million dollars is crazy. Trading a middling pitching prospect for Griffey at 3 years 45 million dollars is getting pretty good value (not great, but he is still a legit middle-of-the-order bat); especially when that 45 million would otherwise just be going into the owner's pockets. If the O's could have gotten JR Towles from Houston by paying all of Tejada's remaining contract, then they should have done it. [Yes, I know they have Wieters on the way, but Towles could keep the spot warm for him for a couples years, and then be traded before he's even arbitration eligible for a good return.]

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