2008 Orioles Projections (Part 1 - Offense)

I had previously done my own Orioles projections and averaged them out with all of the other ones that I could find to get an idea of how things were going to go this season for the team. I recently found a place where someone did the averaging himself, so I think it might be good to post an easy to follow projection for each of the players instead of the hard to read excel sheets it was done in. I tweaked the online projections where I saw fit, and added commentary to each player (also where I saw fit). These are not going to be exactly the same as the previous ones, but I think that the overall picture should be close. I'm actually using the line-drive % to get a better idea of the individual player BABIP numbers.
Today is some offense - tomorrow, pitching.

For quick reference:
C: Ramon Hernandez - .267/.333/.437, 15 HR
1B: Kevin Millar - .263/.355/.416, 13 HR
2B: Brian Roberts - .285/.370/.430, 12 HR
3B: Melvin Mora - .268/.336/.402, 13 HR
SS: Luis Hernandez - .245/.279/.309, 2 HR
LF: Luke Scott - .269/.367/.511, 26 HR
CF: Adam Jones - .269/.327/.464, 19 HR
RF: Nick Markakis - .297/.365/.500, 25 HR
DH: Aubrey Huff - .273/.336/.447, 18 HR
C: Guillermo Quiroz - .237/.288/.344, 3 HR
1B/3B: Scott Moore - .258/.337/.451, 12 HR
OF: Jay Payton - .273/.319/.403, 5 HR
OF: Tike Redman - .269/.317/.372, 3 HR
UTIL: Brandon Fahey - .246/.304/.309, 2 HR

Total: .269/.337/.427, 789 runs, 4.9 runs / game.

C: Ramon Hernandez - Projected: .268/.328/.425, 412 AB, 22 2B, 1 3B, 14 HR, 34 BB, 61 K
I say it should be more like .267/.333/.437, 412 AB, 23 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR, 38 BB, 63 K. He has a solid walk rate and I think some of his power should come back.

1B: Kevin Millar - .260/.352/.411, 407 AB, 22 2B, 0 3B, 13 HR, 56 BB, 74 K
He hit line-drives all over the place so a line of .263/.355/.416 seems more in line. He is still good at taking a walk, but the average and power aren't there anymore. He would make a great bench player, but is no longer a good starter at 1B.

2B: Brian Roberts - .285/.366/.423, 585 AB, 37 2B, 4 3B, 12 HR, 73 BB, 85 BB
I think that he could add a couple doubles and some walks for .285/.370/.430.

3B: Melvin Mora - .267/.332/.398, 476 AB, 22 2B, 1 3B, 13 HR, 43 BB, 85 K
I'm not sure why everyone's walk rates are lower, but .268/.336/.402 seems like Mora's 2008. I don't think he can be a starter in 2009.

SS: Luis Hernandez - .243/.283/.304, 391 AB, 14 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 17 BB, 56 K
Since the glove hasn't even been that good in spring training, I hope that he (gets lucky and) beats this projection. They guy just plain can't hit. He may walk into an extra HR, but I don't think he'll walk quite this much. .245/.279/.309.

LF: Luke Scott - .267/.355/.492, 406 AB, 28 2B, 4 3B, 18 HR, 53 BB, 91 K
I'm looking for more of everything, as I think he'll get more playing time. Houston is bad for left-handed power so I'm thinking more along the lines of .269/.367/.511, 506 AB, 36 2B, 4 3B, 26 HR, 75 BB, 110 K, 3 SB

CF: Adam Jones - .269/.325/.451, 457 AB, 24 2B, 4 3B, 17 HR, 35 BB, 115 K
This is for Jones in Seattle - a pitcher's park. Moving to Camden I think he'll get a bit more playing time, and produce a bit more. Something like .269/.327/.464, 475 AB, 28 2B, 4 3B, 19 HR, 38 BB, 115 K. The plate discipline isn't there yet, but he does have some power. 25 HR wouldn't be terribly surprising.

RF: Nick Markakis - .295/.360/.487, 589 AB, 38 2B, 3 3B, 23 HR, 58 BB, 99 K
Markakis is the real deal in right field. That line is only a small improvement over 2007, but I'm expecting a little more. .297/.365/.500, 610 AB, 43 2B, 3 3B, 25 HR, 63 BB, 95 K, 12 SB.

DH: Aubrey Huff - .276/.341/.451, 513 AB, 31 2B, 1 3B, 18 HR, 48 BB, 81 K
His LD% wasn't great, but I do agree with the increase in HR. .273/.336/.447.

Bench: For the bench guys I decreased the AB totals to fit into a reasonable team number.

C: Guillermo Quiroz - .237/.288/.369, 166 AB, 9 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 9 BB, 37 K
One less HR drops it to .237/.288/.344.

1B/3B: Scott Moore - .245/.320/.431, 275 AB, 15 2B, 1 3B, 13 HR, 30 BB, 88 K
Moore hit very well in AAA last year (in a hitter's park) so .258/.337/.451 makes sense with his high LD% and the low HR/FB rate he had in the majors last year.

OF: Jay Payton - .272/.312/.397, 245, 13 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 13 BB, 26 K
Payton should face lefties more this year so a small bump to .273/.319/.403.

OF: Tike Redman - .271/.321/.365, 260 AB, 12 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 17 BB, 27 K
Trading a touch more power for some average yields .269/.317/.372

UTIL: Brandon Fahey - .242/.309/.312, 272 AB, 9 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 24 BB, 45 K
Fahey hits the ball on the ground too much for much power, and I'm not sold on such a high walk rate. .246/.304/.309.

Team totals: .269/.337/.427, 5600 AB, 316 2B, 30 3B, 169 HR, 544 BB, 977 K

Using the Runs Created formula: 5600 * .337 * .427 / 1.02 (<- for the over-estimation effect) gives 789 runs scored or 4.9 runs / game.

The average line in the American League last year was .271/.338/.423, and 4.9 runs / game. The slightly above average slugging percentage, along with an average OBP yields a pretty good run scored number. Just using the projections (though adding a few AB to Luke Scott) yields 4.8 runs / game, mostly because of the lower SLG. Perhaps I am looking too much at the HR/FB numbers, but I don't think any power projection of mine is too high. Scott can replace Tejada, and upgrading from Patterson to Jones should make up for the small drop-offs elsewhere. The power should be up (I'm hoping). Baseball Prospectus isn't included in the projections, as far as I know, and they're down on the offense (.262/.329/.414 - 748, 4.6 / game). They have tended to undercount the various players on the team in the past so maybe a happy medium? 4.75 runs / game - 770 total? We'll see who's closer at year end. The main difference may be the at bat totals. If the injury bug doesn't hit the offense too hard (mainly the outfielders, as that's where the drop-off is largest) then I think I will be close.