Monday, March 17, 2008

Up By 10 With A Minute Left - 94% Chance Of Victory?

Bill James is an amazing individual. I really started to get into the statistical side of baseball after reading his Abstract in the freshman year of college. The guy has a knack for asking interesting questions, and then finding answers and making them sound interesting too.

He has found a formula that tells what chance a basketball team has of winning a game based on the score, time left, and who has the ball. I'll test it out while watching March Madness, but it seems to work pretty well.

An explanation, and a handy victory calculator are found in the article here.

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