Sunday, March 30, 2008

PTO% = Dominance (Or Ease of Outs)

SaberScouting is an interesting new site that I've found that mixes the statistical analysis of sabermetrics with a keen scouting eye. One of the interesting concepts developed there was for Pitches Towards Outs, or PTO%. This statistic looked at the percentage of pitches that directly contributes toward an out - be it a pitch that was grounded to short or the three pitches that resulted in a strike-out. By looking at PTO%, one can get an idea of how efficient a pitcher is or, as Frankie Piliere suggested, it can be seen as a measure of dominance. The two post on it are here and here.

I decided to use the formula - PTO%=(((IP*3)-SO)+(SO*3))/Pitches - on the Orioles starters. I didn't see the pitch totals for the minor leagues, so I went with what I could find.

Daniel Cabrera (2007) - 26.5%; this would rank him between Gil Meche (#28) and Dontrelle Willis (#29) amongst the 30 #1 starters (each team's ace) from 2007)
Jeremy Guthrie (2007) - 28.8%; between Justin Verlander (#18) and Roy Halliday (#19)
Adam Loewen (2006 & 2007) - 26.0%; between Dontrelle Willis and Kevin Millwood (#30)
Steve Trachsel (2007, O's and Cubs) - 22.3%; way below any ace.
Brian Burres (2007) - 25.2%; a bit below Millwood (25.6%)
Matt Albers (2007, Astros) - 24.9%
Garrett Olson (32 IP) - 23.6%
Hayden Penn (2006, 19 IP) - 17.8%
Radhames Liz (24 IP) - 22.3%

For comparison's sake;
Seattle's Miguel Batista (2007) - 25.9%; below the "worse" O's starters Cabrera, Loewen, and Guthrie.
Jarrod Washburn (2007) - 24.9%; tied with fifth-starter loser and current long-man Matt Albers.
Carlos Silva (2007) - 25.6%; tied with Kevin Millwood and below the O's "big three" (hey Guthrie at 6'1" is easily the shortest - that's pretty big to me).
KC's Brian Bannister (2007) - 24.9%; come on Brian, you can do it!
Nationals #1 starter Odalis Perez (2007) - 23.1%; and people are complaining about the O's rotation.
A's #1 starter Joe Blanton (2007) - 27.9%; between Jeff Francis (#23) and Brad Penny (#24)
White Sox #1 Mark Buehrle (2007) - 26.8%; about in line with his complete opposite as a starter, Daniel Cabrera.
Cardinals #2 starter for this year Kyle Lohse (2007) - 26.9%; also near Cabrera

It seems that the O's have a chance to have a mildly dominating top of the rotation in 2008.

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