Adam Jones vs. Failed Outfield Prospects

Many players have the necessary tools to be successful, but they don’t always turn them into the skills needed to put up good numbers. I also think you need to take injuries out of the equation (unless there is a good reason to believe the player is extra vulnerable). Any player can get hurt any have their career not go where it should have.

Jeffrey Hammonds: Rushed to the big leagues – spent 60 games in AA and AAA before coming up to the Majors. He hit OK (.311/.333/.483) in AAA (as a 22 year-old) in a small number of games but never showed much plate discipline or even that much power. He was still an above average hitter as a rookie in ’93 and in ’94. Had limited playing time ’95 and ’96 (injuries?) but was a solid player for almost his entire career (OPS+ [On-base plus Slugging above league average 100 = average] of 111, 111, 114, 111, 91, 93, 96 from ’97 to ’03 for a career OPS+ of 99]. If that was combined with excellent defense from CF instead of slightly below average defense from all three OF positions then his offense would have been acceptable. He just wasn’t the impact player he was “supposed” to be.

Averaging his 6 best years gives an annual WARP3 (Wins Above Replacement Player (total on-field contributions adjusted for league difficulty, park effects, era, games played, etc)) of 3.4. Bedard was worth 8.1 wins last year, so 6 years of Jeffrey Hammonds (20.4) could certainly be worth more than 2 of Bedard (16.2), if neither was hurt.

Corey Patterson: Spent only 89 games in AAA in ’01 (as a 21 year-old) before being brought up full-time, even though he only hit .253/.308/.387. That followed a year in AA of .261/.329/.491. He got worse every year in the minors but was advanced anyway. Still is a solid MLB player providing good defense, some speed, and a little bit of power.

He has had an average WARP3 score of 4.6 the last couple years. Over 6 years that’s 27.6 – well ahead of Bedard’s 16.2 over 2.

Darnell McDonald: Never hit particularly well at any level of the minors until he had repeated the level or was older than his competition. Even then, he never showed all that much power. It was clear that he wasn’t going to be an impact player in the majors.

Adam Jones: As a 21 year-old in AAA he hit .314/.382/.586 with 25 HR in 101 games in a park that depresses HR by 15%. Adjusting his league difficulty to the MLB level yields .291/.341/.488, with about 40(!) HR. (AAA is about 90% the difficulty of MLB in general, and it was a pitchers’ league). Jones was probable one of the 5 best players in AAA last year.

As a 20 year-old in AAA he hit .287/.345/.484. He has made a major step forward 3 years in a row – that isn’t something you see very often.

(For comparison’s sake) Torii Hunter: As a 21 year-old in AA he hit .231/.301/.338. As a 22 year-old in AA he hit .282/.324/.438 before moving up and hitting .337/.344/.543 in AAA (in 26 games). Hit .255/.309/.380 in the majors at 23 and was sent down to the minors again for 55 games as a 24 year-old.

Adam Jones hit better as a 20 year-old in AAA than Hunter did as a 22 year-old in AA.

It’s not just the tools that everyone believes in. Jones’ stats back it up the way they didn’t for those other guys (minus Hunter two years later). That’s why I’m so confident is his ability to produce at the major league level, even if his OBP isn’t going to be too high in ’08.

Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson wasn’t a bad trade in retrospect; it was pretty bad at the time since Bagwell’s minor were very good for someone his age in the league in which he played (He got on base and hit a ton of doubles). Boston didn’t realize that. Nobody would have said that he was a future HOFamer (hopefully), but it was fairly clear that he could be a good major league player.

It isn’t 100% possible to predict what a player will do, but it is possible to have a pretty good idea. When the scouting guys and the stat guys both say a player will be good it usually turns out to be true. [Edit: Except Andy Marte... nobody really saw that one coming.]