Bedard Beats O's, M's Were Still Fleeced

After a good pitching duel yesterday, with Rich Hill beating Jarrod Washburn 1-0, we've got another interesting match-up tonight. David Hernandez will make his second start of the season after getting the win against Detroit with 5.2 innings of one-run ball. Since the Pitch/FX for that start is strangely not available on FanGraphs, I'll talk about his opponent instead.

Erik Bedard didn't have a very season in 2008 after being traded to Seattle. He was injured, throwing only 81 IP with a 3.67 ERA, but his walks shot up (4.1 BB/9 after 2.8 BB/9 in 2007) and that lead to an only average 4.85 tRA. This year Bedard is back on track, with a 2.48 ERA. His strike-out rate hasn't risen back to 2007's likely career high (10.9 K/9), but it's a very good 8.9 K/9 and his control is the best it's ever been (2.5 BB/9). That's resulted in a 3.75 tRA.

Still, that trade was a very, very bad one for Seattle (though it did put the nail in Bill Bavasi's coffin, which is good for the long-term health of the team given the very capable front-office that's been assembled now). How bad was it? Well, even if you break it up into 2 trades, then they're still bad.

1) Erik Bedard for Adam Jones: Bedard was worth (from FanGraphs) 1.1 WAR ($4.7 M) in 2008 and is on pace for about 3.6 WAR (about $17 M) this year. That's 4.7 WAR (about $21.7 M) while being paid a total of $14.5 M - that's about $7.2 M in excess value. Adam Jones was worth 2.2 WAR ($10 M) last year and is at 1.9 WAR ($8.5 M) already this year. Not on pace for (that would be about 5.7 WAR) - already at. That's 4.1 WAR already in from Jones for $18.5 M in value while being paid less than a million dollars total. Without taking into account anyone the M's might acquire for Bedard in a trade or via a draft-pick if he leaves as a free-agent - or the remaining 4 years that Jones is under Orioles' control - the Mariners have already lost this one.

2) Erik Bedard for George Sherrill and Chris Tillman (lets even pretend that Kam "The Almighty" Mickolio (4.50 ERA in Triple-A but with 26 K's and 6 BB's in 20 IP) and Tony Butler (4.42 ERA in A-Ball with 44 K's and 11 BB's in 50 IP) won't ever contribute in the majors): Bedard has the aforementioned $7.2 M in projected excess value, and this time lets add in the expected excess value of the draft-picks Seattle would get if he's a Type-A free agent. Over at The Hardball Times they valued those picks at about $3-5 M, but given the success Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik had with the draft in Milwaukee, let's lean towards the high end of that range. So that knocks the excess value from Bedard up to about $12 M.

George Sherrill was worth about 0.4 WAR ($1.7 M) last year while being paid $1.0 M, and is on pace for about 0.9 WAR (about $4.3 M) this year while being paid $2.75 M. That's $2.25 M in excess value.

Victor Wang did some research on value of prospects, which I'm going to use. Combining the top prospect lists going into 2009 from Baseball America (#22), Kevin Goldstein (#16), Keith Law (#40), and Deric McKamey (somewhere around #25), Chris Tillman (2.13 ERA in Triple-A with 44 K's and 13 BB's in 38 IP) ranks about 24th in baseball and 9th amongst pitchers (he's about equal to Brian Matusz, by the way). Top 10 pitchers have an expected excess value of about $13.5 M. That's already more than what Bedard is projected to provide to Seattle, and then add Sherrill (and Mickolio/Butler if you want), and this is another pretty clear win for Baltimore - even if it isn't quit as lopsided as the Adam Jones one.

In fact - depending on your opinion of Mickolio and Butler, and the value Sherrill can bring to the O's in his remainging time in Baltimore (I'd say about zero total, with some positive times and some negative times - though more if they can trade him for something decent) - one could even say that the O's would have come out even or ahead if this was split into 3 trades (Jones, Tillman, and Sherrill/Mickolio/Butler). No reason to get greedy though. It was an absolute steal as it is.

And it'll feel even better if the O's can beat Bedard in this game (though I'm still a fan, and would be open to bringing him back after the season if he'll take a discount).

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Top 1:

• Brian Roberts ends a long at bat with a pop-up to short.
• Adam Jones grounds the first pitch he sees to third.
• Nick Markakis grounds the first pitch he sees to first. I think these guys forgot that being patient at the plate is what helped bring them so much success early in the season.
  

Bottom 1:

• Ichiro! bounces a groundball into the hole at short and beats out Izturis' throw. That sets a new M's franchise record for a hitting streak at 26 games, beating the previous record of 25 games held by Ichiro!.
• Russell Branyan (batting second?) grounds a single into right-field.
• Adrian Beltre pops a 95 mph fastball at the letters up, and Ty Wigginton (playing first) makes the catch in foul territory.
• Hey, it's the zombie of Ken Griffey Jr! Seriously though, it's really nice to see Junior back in an M's uniform - he can't catch up to a good fastball (fouls off 97, then misses 94 and 96), but things are just better in the universe with Griffey back in Seattle.
• Jose Lopez hits a flyball to deep left that should end the inning, but the ball goes off of Reimold's glove and two runs score. Both will be "earned".
  
• Yuniesky Betancourt pops out to second.
  

Top 2:

• Aubrey Huff flies out to center. Bedard looks good thus far, but not dominant - the O's can score a couple runs off of him I think.
• Melvin Mora ropes a double just fair down the left-field line.
• Wigginton grounds out to short.
• Mora steals third without a throw.
• Matt Wieters grounds out to third.
  

Bottom 2:

• Rob Johnson hits a lead-off double to left-center field.
• Endy Chavez drops down a sac bunt.
• Frankiln Gutierrez draws a walk.
  
• Ichiro! pops out to Wieters behind the plate.
• Branyan hits a monster shot just foul down the right-field down. He ends up popping out to Mora in shallow left-field to leave the runners on.
  

Top 3:

• Sharp 3-2 curveball gets Reimold looking.
• Izturis strikes out looking as well.
• Roberts lines out to third.
  

Bottom 3:

• Beltre grounds a single through the left-side.
• Griffey pops out to Mora.
• Lopez doubles into the left-field corner.
• Betancourt grounds out to third, but that will bring in another run. 3-0, M's.
• Johnson flies out to left to end the inning.
  

Top 4:

• Adam Jones with a long flyball to left (man, the ball really doesn't carry well in Seattle) - it goes off the wall in the corner for a lead-off double.
• Markakis draws a walk. WOOOOOO! I may be the only person that gets really excited when Nick walks - maybe it's because I spent so much effort trying to show that his great walk rate from last year wasn't a fluke.
  
• Huff flies out to deep center-field. That might have been gone in Cmaden Yards.
• Mora pops out.
• Wigginton lines out to right. The O's really needed to score there, and they couldn't come through.
  

Bottom 4:

• Ichiro! serves a two-out single to left.
• Hernandez strikes Branyan out swinging to end the inning.
  

Top 5:

• Wieters lines a single into left-center.
• Fastball on the inside corner gets Reimold looking.
• Izturis bounces to short, though the M's can only get the force at second.
• After a steal of second by Cesar, Roberts strikes out swinging at a high fastball.
  

Bottom 5:

• Beltre singles to left-field.
• Griffey doubles over Jones' head in center-field. It was on a 92 mph fastball down in the zone, and he just dropped the head of the bat on it. I guess after striking him out and touching 97 in the first, Hernandez is trying to conserve some energy now and stay in the game long enough for his teammates to put some runs on the board for him. The O's have Mark Hendrickson is warming up in the pen.
  
• Lopez grounds out to short, which brings in the fourth Seattle run.
• Betancourt flies out to center.
• Johnson grounds up the middle, but Izturis ranges across the bag to get the ball and throw him out.
  

Top 6:

• High fastball gets Jones swinging.
• Markakis grounds out to short.
• Absurd curveball gets Huff looking. It started right at him and broke over the heart of the plate.
  

Bottom 6:

• Wigginton dives/falls down to snag a grounder by Chavez and takes it to the bag himself for the out.
• Gutierrez singles to right-center. That'll be the last batter Hernandez faces today, with Hendrickson coming in.
• Ichiro! grounds to short with Izturis getting just the force at second.
• Branyan walks on four pitches.
• Beltre singles to right to bring in Ichiro!, but Wigginton cuts off Markakis' throw home and fires to third to get Branyan to end the inning. Run counts though, and it's 5-0.
  

Top 7:

• Mora swings through a fastball for Bedard's 8th K.
• Wigginton singles to left.
• Wieters, with a patient at bat, draws the first walk of his career.
• Reimold battles through a tough plate appearance - fouling off several pitches - before drawing a walk himself.
• We've decided here that if Izturis hits a grand slam we're going to go get a beer. It won't be off of Bedard though, with Sean White coming in (12 BB and 11 K in 25.2 IP this year - those aren't good numbers). And it won't be Izturis either, with Luke Scott coming up to pinch-hit against the right-hander. Tired Bedard vs. Izturis or Sean White vs. Scott? Tough call, but I think I would have stuck with Erik.
  
• Scott grounds to third, but Branyan's only play is at first. That gets the O's on the board.
• Roberts grounds up the middle, but White snags it and throws him out. 5-1, M's.
  

Bottom 7:

• Griffey doubles deep into the left-field corner.
• Lopez grounds out to first, but that advances Junior to third.
• Matt Albers will take over on the mound for the O's.
• Betancourt grounds out to third, with Mora looking Griffey back to the bag.
• Gutierrez walks.
• Nice tailing away from Chavez gets him swinging.
  

Top 8:

• Jones grounds a single through the right side.
• Markakis hits a groundball to second, with Lopez taking it to second himself and getting taken out by a Jones' slide. His throw to first was way high, and Nick is safe.
• Huff hits another long flyball to the track in center that Gutierrez gets to. I'm not a big fan of "arena baseball", but playing in Seattle is frustrating.
• Mora pops out to end the inning.
  

Bottom 8:

• Albers gives up a lead-off single and gets replaced by Jamie Walker on the mound.
• Ichiro! flies out to center.
• Branyan deep and gone to right. 7-1, Seattle. Walker has now given up 3 HR to left-handed batters in 4.2 IP this year.
• Beltre flies out to center.
  
• Make that 4 HR in 5 IP to lefties. Ken Griffey Jr. hits #617 for his career. It was a breaking ball down and away, and Junior went out and hooked it.
• Lopez doubles to deep center-field. Walker isn't fooling anybody, and if Andy McPhail came down to the field right now to cut Jamie then I'd be A-OK with it.
• Betancourt grounds out to third.
  

Top 9:

• Felix Pie will pinch-hit against Denny Stark. Nice piece of hitting by Pie as he lines a double off the chalk down the left-field line. I still have faith in him to be a quality major leaguer, even if he'll only get a real chance in Baltimore if an injury occurs at this point. And 88 at bats does not a "real chance" make, though his PrOPS line of .249/.318/.388 isn't exaclty a confidence booster.
  
• Wieters bounces out to second. His timing looks just a little bit off at the plate.
• Robert Andino (who came in to play shor when Scott hit for Izturis) flies out to right to score Pie.
• Luke grounds out to second to end the game.
  

David Hernandez showed some impressive stuff, throwing a very hard "rising" fastball (92-97 mph, though without much run in on right-handed batters), a nice change-up that he didn't throw for strikes as much as one would like, and a sharp slider. The general line on him has been that he posted good strike-out numbers in the minors (with iffy control) but that scouts didn't like him very much as a potential quality major league starter. If he can keep the walks down, I don't see any reason he can't hang around as a #4 starter. His line doesn't look pretty (5.1 IP, 10 H, 5 R, 1 BB, 2 K), but two of those runs could easily been kept off the board if Reimold had taken a normal route to a flyball in the first inning. When you give up a lot of balls in play, sometimes the hits will fall in. Unfortunately for Hernandez, Erik Bedard was very effective for Seattle. The O's had there chances, but couldn't take advantage and lose 8-2.
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Read more ...

It's The Talent, Stupid

A lot of Orioles fans have a poor opinion of Albert Belle, mostly related to the big contract he was given and the degenerative hip condition that ended his career. Then there was his extremely well established "bad attitude." Even I was guilty of it; when Belle was with the White Sox and they played a game in Baltimore, a couple of friends and I taunted him from the stands by first-base when he got on with shouts of "Ding-Dong." He didn't take too kindly to it, and glared back at us. Still, the guy was a fantastic hitter for his career, putting up a .295/.369/.564 line with 381 HR and a .396 wOBA. He's also the only player in history to hit 50 doubles and 50 home runs in the same season.

I still think he has about as a good a case for the Hall of Fame as Jim Rice did (39.8 WAR to 42.9 WAR, though neither should be in) - and don't even try to tell me that Belle didn't inspire an equal amount of fear in pitchers (even if the whole idea is stupid). And then there are stories like this (hat-tip to Joe Posnanski):

"Email from brilliant reader Tom:

"I saw Albert Belle try to turn down a HBP once. It was Turn Ahead the Clock day, and the Orioles were wearing billowing trash-bag “futuristic” uniforms. Belle was 4-for-4 with a walk and 3 home runs already, including a two-out game-tying shot in the bottom of the ninth. And he had driven in 6 of the O’s 7 runs. So when the ball ran in on his floppy outfit in the bottom of the 11th, with a man aboard, he waved off the ump and tried to stay in the box. My friend and I at the game had absolutely no doubt that had he gotten away with it, he would have hit his fourth homer. Belle felt the same, evidently. But eventually they ordered him along to first base, and Cal Ripken singled in the winning run three batters later."

The date was July 25, 1999. The Orioles were playing the Angels and Shigetoshi Hasegawa was pitching. What made the game weird was that Belle actually talked after the game.

“I’m not going to be accessible but when the situation calls for it, I’ll talk,” he told reporters. “This is one of those times.” And the story confirms that Belle did indeed stay at the plate while fans chanted “Albert! Albert!”

“I told the umpire I wasn’t going to first, that I’d take the 1-0 count,” Belle said after the game. “I told (Angels catcher Matt Walbeck) to tell the pitcher to throw the ball over the plate.”"

Some fans like scrappy players like David Eckstein and Willie Bloomquist. I like players who are good at baseball, though I do have a particular affinity for guys that people don't like for unimportant reasons. Guys like Belle who are considered "surly" but may just want to go out and play ball. A better example of this might be Erik Bedard, who really does seem like a nice guy that wants to be left alone to do his job. I can empathize with his reaction to the media attention, and so I find his responses to be particularly amusing.

Like when he told reporters:
"You get four questions."
“Why only four?"
"That's one."

Next time out?
"Five questions... That's one more than last time."

Or after striking out 10 in a game:
Q: Double digits, though, you have to feel a little bit good about that. Give yourself a little credit.
Bedard: Not really.
Q: More movement on your fastball this game?
Bedard: The same. Same as usual.
Q: Any pitch that was more effective tonight?
Bedard: (Shakes his head).

Asked if he's healthy in his first game back after shoulder surgery; "Yep."

And finally, some greeting cards from Mr. Bedard, courtesy of LookoutLanding:



It's the smiley face that really gets me. Read more ...

That "Dumbass" Has A Wicked Curveball

It sounds like Erik Bedard isn't too popular in Seattle. The trade that brought him over was supposed to catapult the Mariners into the playoffs, but instead it just helped get the GM fired. One of the main reasons is Bedard's stamina - he tires after throwing around 100 pitches.

"I asked Bavasi on Monday about Bedard's pitch-count threshold. After bouncing between defending and explaining Bedard, the axed GM — clearly exasperated — said I needed to ask the pitcher.

"You gotta ask him," Bavasi said. "You gotta ask him. Good luck. And he's gonna have some stupid answer, some dumbass answer."

Bavasi went on to marvel over Bedard's talent, to soften the insult, but he made his point. His great acquisition had turned into a great headache.

At least Bedard is no longer his problem. Sometimes, there is an upside to getting fired." - Jerry Brewer, Seattle Times reporter

I actually like the way Bedard deals with the media - I find it very entertaining. The press should be thankful in a way, as his "unfriendliness" gives them about as much to write about as they'd have if he just gave them the usual sports cliches. Read more ...

How Bad Is It?

There's a great article on the HardballTimes looking at Erik Bedard's hip injury. Bedard has already missed a couple of starts (including one against the O's), and he has recently been placed on the DL by Seattle. Chris Neault analyzed Bedard's pitching motion, and found that it may be why he is experiencing the pain.

"Notice how Bedard plants the left leg, then twists his trunk, pelvis, and right knee towards the left hip—past the left hip—then returns towards home plate. In essence, this is a functional scouring test for the hip. The weight of the body is placed through the left hip, so the joint surfaces are abutting one another. The rotation of the upper body over the left hip then "scours" the joint. This can create a situation that is, for lack of better terms, awful for the cartilage surfaces of the hip....If Bedard has been pitching like this for a long time, which I can only figure he has been, the chance that he might have an early onset of degenerative changes of the left hip is likely...The fact that Bedard's hip did not respond to rest and medication can lead us to believe that perhaps something else is going on here...I would not be surprised in the least if we found that Bedard has a labral tear in the left hip, and/or an arthritic hip...If there is a labral tear, rehabilitation alone is rarely successful. Usually, arthroscopic surgery to either debride or repair the labrum and shave down the acetabular rim is performed. If it is arthritis, rehabilitation should provide some relief, though he will likely struggle with bouts of increased pain with periods of relief."

Wow. I'm still a fan of Bedard's, and I was hoping that he would have good season (though with few wins to show for it). I hope this doesn't turn out to be as severe as it sounds. This does make the trade look even worse for the Mariners though. That's the risk you take when you trade 5 players for 1 pitcher. Read more ...

The Bedard Trade

[Written originally at the time of the trade.]

So Erik Bedard has (finally, officially) been traded to the Seattle Mariners for Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, Tony Butler, and Kameron Mickolio. To give everyone some info. about the new O’s.

Adam Jones; 22 yr old CF, may eventually hit .300 with 30 HR 20 SB, great athlete, very good defense/arm

Had 1.002 On-base Plus Slugging (OPS) at AAA last year (in a pitchers’ park). Plate discipline isn’t there yet so he may struggle at first, but should be a league-average CF at minimum with a multiple time All-Star ceiling. Think Torii Hunter or even Vernon Wells. There might be more power though, as I’ve heard 40 HR as a projection. If he was eligible, he would be a top 10 Prospect overall, maybe as high as #6.

Along with Nolan Reimold in LF (soon) and Nick Markakis in RF, he will be part of a good/very good offensive and great defensive outfield (all 3 guys have the range for CF and the arms for RF). Jones for Bedard, straight-up, would have been defensible. Taking salaries into account, Jones will easily provide more to the O’s over the 6 years they have him under control than Bedard would for the next two.


Chris Tillman; 6’5 19 yr old RHP, Rated as Seattles #2 Prospect, #44 overall
Year In Review: Ignore the numbers--scouts walked away highly impressed with Tillman in his full-season debut.

The Good: Tillman is a highly projectable power pitcher. He has a loose, long frame and good mechanics, with a fastball that sits at 92-94 mph and touches 96, which should become a more regular occurrence as his body fills out. His overhand curveball is a true plus offering that he breaks hard through the zone. Scouts love his aggressiveness, and team officials praised his ability to survive as a teenager in one of the worst pitching environments around.

The Bad: Tillman simply needs a little polish. While he’s hardly wild, he needs to improve his command and control. Like many young pitchers, his changeup needs some improvement, but he does show some feel for the pitch, and it’s already gotten far better since he was drafted.

Fun Fact: In his last seven starts, Tillman had a 2.50 ERA and 47 strikeouts in 39 2/3 innings.

Perfect World Projection: Tillman’s ceiling is considerably high; if everything works out, he’s a number two starter.

Timetable: The Mariners are well known for pushing their prospects quickly, and Tillman will likely hit Double-A at some point in 2008.

Reasonable Ceiling: Chris Carpenter/John Lackey

“There Is No Such Thing As a Pitching Prospect”, but Tillman looks like a guy who could really take a step up in peoples’ eyes next year as his stats come around to meet his abilities.


George Sherrill; 30 yr old LHP (relief), low 90s, quality slider, 2.36 ERA, 11.2 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.4 HR / 9 last year but only 45 IP in 73 games. Quality left-handed bullpen arm, though probably not going to be around for the O’s next playoff appearance. Don’t really get why he’s in the deal, but I suppose the O’s don’t want to completely give away this season (or the M’s wouldn’t give up another prospect instead). Making him the closer and letting him amass 15-20 Saves by the trade deadline could net an extra couple of prospects from a contending team in need of bullpen help. At best he becomes a poor man’s BJ Ryan.


Tony Butler; 6’7 20 yr old LHP, Rated as Seattles #8 Prospect

Year In Review: Coming off a stunning pro debut, Butler took a long time to get going, as bad weather limited him to just 14 innings in the season's first month and he followed that by missing six weeks with a tired arm. He finished the year with five consecutive quality starts, including a nine-inning four-hitter on August 26.

The Good: Despite his struggles, Butler's combination of size, velocity, and left-handedness is a rare thing. He was consistently reaching 93-94 mph by the end of the year, and his curve seems to fall out of the sky due to his height and its hard break. He's a good athlete for his size, and fields his position well.

The Bad: Some felt that having Butler pitch in his home state of Wisconsin turned out being more of a distraction that a comfort. His herky-jerky mechanics give scouts pause, with some wondering if his tired-arm period was just a sign of things to come. Like many young, tall pitchers, he needs to find a more consistent release point, as he has a lot of trouble throwing his curveball for strikes.

Fun Fact: Butler ended his prep career as Oak Creek High's all-time leading scorer in basketball, playing at the varsity level in all four years.

Perfect World Projection: Butler's ceiling is as an above-average, star-level rotation stalwart.

Timetable: Things won't get any easier for Butler as he moves to the California League for 2008. Consistency and health will be as important as his numbers.

Reasonable Ceiling: Doug Davis/Chris Capuano

He reminds me a bit of Adam Loewen. If either guy can maintain their mechanics and improve their control, they should be really good. Loewen has a bit higher ceiling, but having Butler as a #3 behind Loewen and Tillman would be more than acceptable.


Kameron Mickolio; 6’9 23 yr old RHP (relief), mid 90s sinking fastball, strikes people out and is improving control. There are going to be a lot of options from which to construct a bullpen in ’08.

(Veranda fonted scouting reports from Kevin Goldstein)
[The YearInReview, Good, Bad, etc. parts]

Per John Sickels; Adam Jones B+ (“Mike Cameron without the walks. Still young enough to get better than that.”) Should probably be an A-, Chris Tillman B+, Tony Butler B-, Kam "The Almighty" Mickolio C.

For comparison, Matt Weiters A-, Troy Patton B+, Garrett Olson B-, Brandon Erbe C+.


Not a bad haul. I would have preferred trading him to the Reds, to avoid having him in the same league, but since they wouldn’t include Jay Bruce (rightly so – 20 yo CF, #1 Prospect in baseball, great hitter, tons of power, (think Larry Walker with a few more strike-outs)), that wasn’t going to happen. The Reds still could have come up with a better package, but this is certainly nothing to sneeze at, and is good quality for a guy whose value may never be higher and who doesn’t want to stick around anyway. He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball, but his most similar pitchers through age 28 include Donovan Osborne, Bud Black, Cal Eldred, and Justin Thompson, so future dominance isn’t necessarily a given. I’m going to miss watching Bedard pitch (the game vs. Texas was the best pitching I’ve ever seen), but it was a deal that had to be made.

This is still about as good a group of players/prospects a team has acquired for a star player this winter. It’s way better than what the Twins got for Johan Santana, and a bit better than what the A’s got for Dan Haren because Tillman is the best pitcher in either group, and Adam Jones is the best position player in either group. It’s also comparable to what the Marlins got for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, and might even end up better if the two biggest prospects the Marlins’ got don’t both become stars, as the other 4 were mostly filler.

Now to get something decent for Brian Roberts… Read more ...