Community Projections: O's Closer

The O's should have a solid bullpen next year, though the guy's at the back-end aren't exactly Mo Rivera.

George Sherrill was acquired from Seattle in the Erik Bedard trade and went on to have a good season as the team's closer - even making the All-Star game. The 4.73 ERA was high, but he did pick up 31 saves with a 9.8 K/9, 5.6 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.33 FIP, 4.07 tRA, 109 tRA+.

For next year I have him projected for 55 IP with a 4.00 tRA.

Jim Johnson was an OK starting pitching prospect, but was moved into the pen when he was brought up to the majors. His mid-90s fastball / curveball combo led to a very good season (2.23 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 3.48 tRA, 122 tRA+) despite a poor strike-out rate (4.9 K/9).

I've got him projected similarly to Sherrill, with 65 innings of 4.00 tRA ball

Chris Ray didn't spend any time in the majors in 2008 due to injury. Back in '07 he was the O's hard-throwing closer, putting up a 16 save, 4.43 ERA, 4.30 tRA season before going down hurt. The previous year he converted on 33 save opportunities with a sparkling 2.73 ERA despite a 4.64 tRA.

I'm not expecting all that much from Ray in '09: 40 IP with a 4.50 tRA.

With three good but not great arms available at the end of games, how will Dave Trembley choose to utilize these weapons? I would use a Sherrill/Ray combo for the ninth inning depending on who's coming up to the plate with Jim Johnson (who seems to be the most effective against non-specific competition - Sherrill is very effective against lefties; .171/.235/.287 career line) serving as the team's "relief ace".

So who's entrance music is going to be playing at the end of O's victories this year?
Read more ...

High Leverage, Flat Brim

FanGraphs has a nice little post about George Sherrill:

"With the new design of the home page up and running I recently noticed that Orioles closer George Sherrill not only has the oldest-sounding name in baseball but also leads all relievers with a 2.03 WPA. Sherrill, part of the Erik Bedard trade, has 17 saves out of the Orioles 23 wins; his saves:team wins percentage of 73.9 leads all closers as well.

Something interesting about his success—other than the fact that five of his saves have come against his former employer Seattle—is his higher than expected 3.43 ERA. Granted, ERA is not too useful of a barometer when analyzing the efforts of a closer, but his high saves total and high WPA led me to believe he has been shutting down opponents with the greatest of ease.

A closer look at his game logs shows that, of his 8 earned runs allowed, three have come in non-save situations and another two in his blown saves. In all successfully converted saves, Sherrill has allowed just three earned runs. Despite this relative success, there are four other closers who have been performing extremely well while surrendering next to nothing, regardless of whether or not their appearances coincide with blown saves or non-save situations.

Billy Wagner: 16 GP, 17 IP, 9 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 19 K
Brad Lidge: 19 GP, 19 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 8 BB, 21 K
BJ Ryan: 14 GP, 14 IP, 11 H, 1 ER, 6 BB, 17 K
Mariano Rivera: 16 GP, 17 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 14 K

Here are the averages of these four stacked up next to Sherrill:

Sherrill: 21 GP, 21 IP, 13 H, 8 ER, 10 BB, 16 K
Others: 16 GP, 17 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 17 K

Another interesting area to look at is the situation in which the closer entered. Coming into a bases loaded, no out situation with a one-run lead is much different than entering into a nobody on, one out situation with a two-run lead. The statistic gmLI measures the difficulty level when the pitcher entered the game. Here are the average gmLIs of these five closers:

Wagner: 1.34
Lidge: 1.83
Ryan: 2.10
Rivera: 1.65
Sherrill: 2.21

Generally speaking, the average LI, or neutral event, is 1.00; 10% of all events will be over 2.00.

Sherrill has the highest average gmLI of the five while Wagner has the lowest. While it is definitely remarkable that Wagner is yet to surrender an earned run—he has given up 4 unearned runs—it looks as though Sherrill has been less successful in preventing runs due to pitching in much tougher situations.

These other four may have better peripherals, but do not let Sherrill’s ERA fool you: In just 21 innings pitched he has contributed two wins while pitching in tough situations."

I'm glad I picked Ol' Flat-Brim up in three of my fantasy leagues. He has the worst control of the group, and the lowest strike-out rate, so I don't think his success will continue at quite this level. Still, when they do decide to trade him (and they will, even if it isn't this year) he should bring back a couple of decent prospects. It's always nice to see the O's getting some positive attention from non-Baltimore sources. Read more ...

The Bedard Trade

[Written originally at the time of the trade.]

So Erik Bedard has (finally, officially) been traded to the Seattle Mariners for Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, Tony Butler, and Kameron Mickolio. To give everyone some info. about the new O’s.

Adam Jones; 22 yr old CF, may eventually hit .300 with 30 HR 20 SB, great athlete, very good defense/arm

Had 1.002 On-base Plus Slugging (OPS) at AAA last year (in a pitchers’ park). Plate discipline isn’t there yet so he may struggle at first, but should be a league-average CF at minimum with a multiple time All-Star ceiling. Think Torii Hunter or even Vernon Wells. There might be more power though, as I’ve heard 40 HR as a projection. If he was eligible, he would be a top 10 Prospect overall, maybe as high as #6.

Along with Nolan Reimold in LF (soon) and Nick Markakis in RF, he will be part of a good/very good offensive and great defensive outfield (all 3 guys have the range for CF and the arms for RF). Jones for Bedard, straight-up, would have been defensible. Taking salaries into account, Jones will easily provide more to the O’s over the 6 years they have him under control than Bedard would for the next two.


Chris Tillman; 6’5 19 yr old RHP, Rated as Seattles #2 Prospect, #44 overall
Year In Review: Ignore the numbers--scouts walked away highly impressed with Tillman in his full-season debut.

The Good: Tillman is a highly projectable power pitcher. He has a loose, long frame and good mechanics, with a fastball that sits at 92-94 mph and touches 96, which should become a more regular occurrence as his body fills out. His overhand curveball is a true plus offering that he breaks hard through the zone. Scouts love his aggressiveness, and team officials praised his ability to survive as a teenager in one of the worst pitching environments around.

The Bad: Tillman simply needs a little polish. While he’s hardly wild, he needs to improve his command and control. Like many young pitchers, his changeup needs some improvement, but he does show some feel for the pitch, and it’s already gotten far better since he was drafted.

Fun Fact: In his last seven starts, Tillman had a 2.50 ERA and 47 strikeouts in 39 2/3 innings.

Perfect World Projection: Tillman’s ceiling is considerably high; if everything works out, he’s a number two starter.

Timetable: The Mariners are well known for pushing their prospects quickly, and Tillman will likely hit Double-A at some point in 2008.

Reasonable Ceiling: Chris Carpenter/John Lackey

“There Is No Such Thing As a Pitching Prospect”, but Tillman looks like a guy who could really take a step up in peoples’ eyes next year as his stats come around to meet his abilities.


George Sherrill; 30 yr old LHP (relief), low 90s, quality slider, 2.36 ERA, 11.2 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.4 HR / 9 last year but only 45 IP in 73 games. Quality left-handed bullpen arm, though probably not going to be around for the O’s next playoff appearance. Don’t really get why he’s in the deal, but I suppose the O’s don’t want to completely give away this season (or the M’s wouldn’t give up another prospect instead). Making him the closer and letting him amass 15-20 Saves by the trade deadline could net an extra couple of prospects from a contending team in need of bullpen help. At best he becomes a poor man’s BJ Ryan.


Tony Butler; 6’7 20 yr old LHP, Rated as Seattles #8 Prospect

Year In Review: Coming off a stunning pro debut, Butler took a long time to get going, as bad weather limited him to just 14 innings in the season's first month and he followed that by missing six weeks with a tired arm. He finished the year with five consecutive quality starts, including a nine-inning four-hitter on August 26.

The Good: Despite his struggles, Butler's combination of size, velocity, and left-handedness is a rare thing. He was consistently reaching 93-94 mph by the end of the year, and his curve seems to fall out of the sky due to his height and its hard break. He's a good athlete for his size, and fields his position well.

The Bad: Some felt that having Butler pitch in his home state of Wisconsin turned out being more of a distraction that a comfort. His herky-jerky mechanics give scouts pause, with some wondering if his tired-arm period was just a sign of things to come. Like many young, tall pitchers, he needs to find a more consistent release point, as he has a lot of trouble throwing his curveball for strikes.

Fun Fact: Butler ended his prep career as Oak Creek High's all-time leading scorer in basketball, playing at the varsity level in all four years.

Perfect World Projection: Butler's ceiling is as an above-average, star-level rotation stalwart.

Timetable: Things won't get any easier for Butler as he moves to the California League for 2008. Consistency and health will be as important as his numbers.

Reasonable Ceiling: Doug Davis/Chris Capuano

He reminds me a bit of Adam Loewen. If either guy can maintain their mechanics and improve their control, they should be really good. Loewen has a bit higher ceiling, but having Butler as a #3 behind Loewen and Tillman would be more than acceptable.


Kameron Mickolio; 6’9 23 yr old RHP (relief), mid 90s sinking fastball, strikes people out and is improving control. There are going to be a lot of options from which to construct a bullpen in ’08.

(Veranda fonted scouting reports from Kevin Goldstein)
[The YearInReview, Good, Bad, etc. parts]

Per John Sickels; Adam Jones B+ (“Mike Cameron without the walks. Still young enough to get better than that.”) Should probably be an A-, Chris Tillman B+, Tony Butler B-, Kam "The Almighty" Mickolio C.

For comparison, Matt Weiters A-, Troy Patton B+, Garrett Olson B-, Brandon Erbe C+.


Not a bad haul. I would have preferred trading him to the Reds, to avoid having him in the same league, but since they wouldn’t include Jay Bruce (rightly so – 20 yo CF, #1 Prospect in baseball, great hitter, tons of power, (think Larry Walker with a few more strike-outs)), that wasn’t going to happen. The Reds still could have come up with a better package, but this is certainly nothing to sneeze at, and is good quality for a guy whose value may never be higher and who doesn’t want to stick around anyway. He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball, but his most similar pitchers through age 28 include Donovan Osborne, Bud Black, Cal Eldred, and Justin Thompson, so future dominance isn’t necessarily a given. I’m going to miss watching Bedard pitch (the game vs. Texas was the best pitching I’ve ever seen), but it was a deal that had to be made.

This is still about as good a group of players/prospects a team has acquired for a star player this winter. It’s way better than what the Twins got for Johan Santana, and a bit better than what the A’s got for Dan Haren because Tillman is the best pitcher in either group, and Adam Jones is the best position player in either group. It’s also comparable to what the Marlins got for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, and might even end up better if the two biggest prospects the Marlins’ got don’t both become stars, as the other 4 were mostly filler.

Now to get something decent for Brian Roberts… Read more ...