2008 - Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers were supposed to score 1,000 runs and challenge for the World Series, and... they sure didn't.

Record: 74-88
Pythagorean Record: 78-84
Third Order Standings (from BPro): 79-83
My Prediction: 89-73
Over/Under: Under 93.5 - Correct

The big Tigers' acquisition, Miguel Cabrera, started out slowly and had a sub-par year by his standards (.292/.349/.537, 37 HR, .379 wOBA, 115 wOBA+), but still managed to lead the AL in home runs. Cabrera was also the only Tiger to play in more than 146 games. Carlos Guillen missed time but continued being one of the under-appreciated hitters in the league (.286/.376/.436, .367 wOBA, 110 wOBA+). Curtis Granderson missed the start of the year but raked when he got back (.280/.365/.494, 22 HR, 13 3B, .378 wOBA, 113 wOBA+). Magglio Ordonez's OPS dropped 150 points, though he was still productive (.317/.376/.494, 21 HR, .376 wOBA, 113 wOBA+). Marcus Thames showed tremendous power and no other skills (.241/.292/.516, 25 HR, .355 wOBA, 108 wOBA+). And finally, Placido Polanco and his very square jaw played excellent defense once again and added a little with the bat (.307/.350/.417, .341 wOBA, 102 wOBA+). Edgar Renteria sucked again in the AL (.270/.317/.382) and Detroit only scored 821 runs.

Normally, 821 runs would be enough to at least have a winning season. Unfortunately for the Tigers, their pitching collapsed. Dontrelle Willis, who came over from Florida with Cabrera and received a shiny new contract before the season, forgot how to throw strikes (13.1 BB/9) and was sent to the minors. Despite the formally high 90's fastball and three quality pitches, Justin Verlander regressed to being only slightly above average (4.84 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 4.58 tRA, 106 tRA+). Jeremy Bonderman pitched OK until he got hurt (4.29 ERA, 5.40 tRA, 71.3 IP), and lefties Kenny Rogers (5.70 ERA, 6.34 tRA) and Nate Robertson (6.35 ERA, 5.34 tRA) were pretty horrible. The bullpen was even worse, with closer Todd Jones losing his job (4.97 ERA, 7.14 tRA) to Fernando Rodney (4.91 ERA, 5.34 tRA). The only pleasant surprise on the staff was rookie right-hander Armando Galarraga (3.73 ERA, 6.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 5.29 tRA, 91 tRA+). I wouldn't expect a repeat of that kind of success in 2009 from him though (1.4 HR/9 in '08). A 4.91 ERA (857 runs allowed) just won't cut it for a contender.

With a farm system that had been depleted and a payrolls that will need to be trimmed, the Tigers are in a little bit of trouble. I still expect Verlander to eventually turn into an Ace, but he 'll need some help to keep the other teams down while Cabrera and co. put some runs on the board. It will be pretty embarrassing if they finish below the Royals in the standings... again. Read more ...

2008 O's Offensive Projections

I'll get to the team overall later, but for now I wanted to look back at by projections for the offense. Proj. was my pre-season projection, Act. is their actual season line, and Pr. is the predicted line from the Hardball times based on batted-ball data and the like (like PrOPS).

C: Ramon Hernandez
Proj: .267/.333/.437
Act: .257/.308/.406
Pr: .292/.341/.457
Despite a solid line-drive % (19.7%), Ramon's BABIP was only .265. Let him start 2009 as the catcher and hope the luck evens out so he can be traded. Razor's defense leaves a lot to be desired, but he's still a pretty good hitter for a back-stop.

1B: Kevin Millar
Proj: .263/.355/.416
Act: .234/.323/.394
Pr: .279/.362/.464
19.1% LD rate and a .245 BABIP. If he'd sign for nothing then I'd bring him back as a bench player, though that's mostly my personal affinity for the guy.

2B: Brian Roberts
Proj: .285/.370/.430
Act: .296/.378/.450
Pr: .288./.371./.408
Great year, but I don't think he has that much power.

3B: Melvin Mora
Proj: .268/.336/.402
Act: .285/.342/.483
Pr: .300/.357/.505
Where the heck did that come from? And more importantly, are there any teams (Twins?) that think he can repeat it?

SS: Luis Hernandez
Proj: .245/.279/.309
Act: .241/.295/.253
Pr: .271/.326/.335
He wasn't around that long and now he's the Royals' problem. I'll sort of miss the Pelican.

LF: Luke Scott
Proj: .269/.367/.511
Act: .257/.336/.472
Pr: .271/.348/.484
Luke was a mild disappointment for me, but he was still a productive player. I guess the AL really is tougher than the NL.

CF: Adam Jones
Proj: .269/.327/.464
Act: .270/.311/.400
Pr: .254/.297/.377
Where's the power? You can't put up a decent SLG when the ball's being hit on the ground so much (47%). And without the power there's not much reason for a pitcher not to challenge him, and so the walks will be lower. At least he can go get them in center. [Jones reminds me a little of Delmon Young in that he too has the raw power but hits the ball on the ground way too much (55%) and so he only slugged .405.]

RF: Nick Markakis
Proj: .297/.365/.500
Act: .306/.406/.491
Pr: .291/.392/.464
Finally utilized that great batting eye. In his prime we may see a .330/.450/.550 season, but .300/.400/.500 is still worth a lot. Sign the man!

DH: Aubrey Huff
Proj: .273/.336/.447
Act: .304/.360/.552
Pr: .290/.346/.517
I really honestly liked the signing when they made it. Doubtful of a repeat, but it was fun while it lasted. And he has a Silver Slugger to show for it.

C: Guillermo Quiroz
Proj: .237/.288/.344
Act: .187/.259/.269
Pr: .239/.304/.347
I got surprisingly close to the PrOPS line, considering he's a back-up catcher. Cool name and actually good defense makes him one of the better #2's the team has had recently.

OF: Jay Payton
Proj: .273/.319/.403
Act: .243/.291/.346
Pr: .275/.318/.405
Wow. I missed his actual line, but the underlying one is right there. May I never have to make a projection for him again.

UTIL: Brandon Fahey
Proj: .246/.304/.309
Act: .226/.252/.349
Pr: .244/.272/.313
I have nothing against Fahey personally, but I never want to see him playing for the team again. If he's even the #2 option at short then the team has major problems.

Total (includes others):
Projected - .269/.337/.427, 789 runs, 4.9 runs / game.
Actual - .267/.333/.429, 782 runs, 4.8 runs / game.

So, yeah. I'm going to give myself a pat on the back for this one. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA - the best projection system around - had the team at .262/.329/.414, 748 runs, 4.6 runs / game. I may not have predicted every team's win totals as well, but I beat them out on the Birds' offense. I'm 1-for-1 at this, and will try to keep the streak alive next year. Too bad my pitching projections were so far off, or the team might have flirted with .500 a little more. Read more ...

WAR They Stand

The winter meetings are coming up soon, and so the O's roster is likely to see some changes. Let's take a look at where the team stands right now using Wins Above Replacement.

First the position players: (The "Projections" are very rough, and defense is just in the ballpark.)

Player	Position	2008 wOBA	2008 wOBA+	2009 "Proj." wOBA	2009 "Proj." PA	Position Adj.	Def.	Batting (700 PA)	WAR	$WAR	Proj. Salary	Diff
Ramon Hernandez	C	0.319	94	0.320	200	1.25	-0.5	-1.10	0.61	$3.4	$8.0	-$4.6
Matt Weiters	C	0.458 (AA)	134	0.340	450	1.25	0	0.06	2.45	$12.2	$0.4	$11.8
Oscar Salazar	1B	0.394	116	0.350	450	-1.25	0	0.64	1.21	$6.3	$0.4	$5.9
Brian Roberts	2B	0.374	112	0.360	650	0.25	0	1.22	3.68	$18.2	$8.0	$10.2
Melvin Mora	3B	0.364	108	0.340	550	0.25	-0.75	0.06	1.62	$8.2	$9.0	-$0.8
Brandon Fahey	SS	0.260	79	0.266	550	0.75	0	-4.23	-0.77	-$3.3	$0.4	-$3.7
Luke Scott	LF	0.356	106	0.360	600	-0.75	0	1.22	2.54	$12.7	$1.0	$11.7
Adam Jones	CF	0.322	96	0.335	600	0.25	0.75	-0.23	2.80	$14.0	$0.4	$13.6
Nick Markakis	RF	0.398	119	0.400	650	-0.75	0.25	3.54	5.14	$25.3	$7.0	$18.3
Aubrey Huff	DH	0.389	116	0.360	625	-1.75	0	1.22	1.76	$8.9	$8.0	$0.9
Luis Montanez	OF	0.352	104	0.350	250	-0.75	0	0.64	0.85	$4.5	$0.4	$4.1
Bench				0.296	650	0	0	-2.50	0.00	$0.4	$0.4	$0.0
Total				0.340	6575				21.90	$110.8	$43.4	$67.4

* Ramon would be an above average catcher if his defense wasn't so bad.
* I think Wieters could outhit that projection (about .278/.343/.437) and be even more valuable. And I assume that he's just average defensively though he comes with a pretty good reputation behind the plate.
* Salazar obviously won't be the Birds' starting 1B, but he's it for now.
* Roberts is a pretty darn good player. I'm becoming more and more OK with signing him if he gives a home-town discount.
* Mora's defense isn't very good so if his offense falls off too far from 2008's level then he won't be worth what he'll be paid. I don't think he can swing the bat like that again, but I didn't expect it last year either.
* Fahey won't be the shortstop, but for now their only options are pretty much replacement level.
* Luke Scott's cheap and solidly average in left.
* Once Adam Jones' bat gets above average then he'll be a beast.
* Markakis' bat is already well above average. One of the best players in baseball.
* Huff's bat just isn't that valuable as a DH unless he can repeat 2008. Personally, I'd try to deal Mora and move Huff to third where his defense will be about as good as Mora's (that is, not very) but his bat will play better.
* Montanez makes a pretty good 4th outfielder.
* The bench is assumed to be replacement level.

The offense is about as good as 2008's - same .340 wOBA. 22 WAR won't cut it without a top-notch pitching staff. Getting a good first-baseman (Teixeira?) and an actual shortstop (Furcal?) would add 6-9 WAR. Huff to third and a good DH (Milton Bradley?) adds another 2ish WAR.

Player	Position	2008 tRA	2008 tRA+	2009 "Proj." tRA	2009 "Proj." IP	WAR	$WAR	Proj. Salary	Diff
Jeremy Guthrie	SP	4.84	101	4.50	200	3.93	$19.4	$2.0	$17.4
Daniel Cabrera	SP	6.58	65	5.50	180	0.82	$4.4	$3.3	$1.1
Garrett Olson	SP	5.26	92	5.25	160	1.33	$6.8	$0.4	$6.4
Radhames Liz	SP	6.86	59	6.00	100	-0.26	-$0.9	$0.4	-$1.3
Chris Waters	SP	5.84	80	5.50	100	0.46	$2.6	$0.4	$2.2
Matt Albers	SP/RP	3.08/4.59	137/97	4.70	100	0.89	$4.7	$0.4	$4.3
Brian Burres	SP/RP	6.20/5.94	73/74	5.75	75	-0.55	-$2.2	$0.4	-$2.6
George Sherrill	RP	4.07	109	4.00	60	0.82	$4.4	$2.0	$2.4
Jim Johnson	RP	3.48	122	4.00	70	0.92	$4.9	$0.4	$4.5
Chris Ray	RP	4.30 (2007)	108 (2007)	4.50	50	0.15	$1.1	$0.5	$0.6
Dennis Sarfate	RP	4.23	105	4.50	60	0.26	$1.7	$0.4	$1.3
Randor Bierd	RP	5.23	83	5.00	45	-0.17	-$0.4	$0.4	-$0.8
Alberto Castillo	RP	4.47	100	4.50	45	0.20	$1.3	$0.4	$0.9
Jamie Walker	RP	6.83	47	5.00	40	-0.15	-$0.3	$4.5	-$4.8
Kam Mickolio	RP	3.91	113	4.50	40	0.17	$1.2	$0.4	$0.8
Danys Baez	RP	7.04 (2007)	50 (2007)	5.00	35	0.02	$0.5	$5.5	-$5.0
Jim Miller	RP	3.26	127	4.50	35	0.22	$1.5	$0.4	$1.1
Rocky Cherry	RP	6.73	49	4.75	30	0.11	$0.9	$0.4	$0.5
Total				4.97	1425	9.17	$51.6	$22.6	$29.0

* I don't think Guthrie will really post a tRA that low, but I'm giving him credit for beating his FIP by a good amount again (4.53 FIP vs. 3.63 ERA).
* Will Daniel Cabrera just provide regular levels of sucking again?
* On the flip side, I think Olson will actually improve.
* Liz is really bad. They'll let him get in his below-replacement innings for development reasons.
* Waters, Albers, and Burress (plus misc. pitchers who'll post similar numbers while taking their innings) round out the awful rotation.
* The pen is merely OK.
* This is not a pitching staff that can compete. Bringing in a couple of quality starters (say, AJ Burnett and Derek Lowe) would add 6-8 more WAR.

As it stands the O's have about 31 WAR, but only three players provide over 3 (Roberts, Markakis, and Guthrie). They need around 15 more to make a solid run at the division (a zero WAR team would win 45-50 games) . That probably isn't going to happen this year, but at least it's clear where upgrades are needed. Read more ...