Thursday, January 8, 2009

Rotation Update

With the addition of Koji Uehara to the O's rotation, the team can take some innings away from near-replacement level players like Chris Waters. Some updated pitching staff projections (including a lower, more correct baseline for league average tRA and a more exact formula for pitcher WAR - that makes the O's pitchers less valuable overall; plus a new color scheme!).

Player Pos. 2008 tRA 2008 tRA+ 2008 tRA* regressed 2009 "Proj." tRA 2009 "Proj." IP WAR $WAR Proj. Salary Diff
Jeremy Guthrie SP 4.84 101 4.80 4.75 180 2.5 $12.5 $2.0 $10.5
Koji
Uehara
SP N/A N/A N/A 5.00 160 1.8 $9.2 $8.0 $1.2
Garrett Olson SP 5.26 92 5.26 5.25 150 1.3 $6.8 $0.4 $6.4
Radhames Liz SP 6.86 59 6.00 6.00 100 0.2 $1.5 $0.4 $1.1
Chris Waters SP 5.84 80 5.16 5.75 80 0.3 $2.1 $0.4 $1.7
Hayden Penn SP 5.80 (AAA) 80 (AAA) 5.12
(AAA)
6.00 80 0.2 $1.3 $0.4 $0.9
Matt
Albers
SP/RP (67-33) 3.08 / 4.59 137 / 97 4.84 / 4.67 4.75 90 1.0 $5.0 $0.4 $4.6
Mark Hendrickson SP/RP (50-50) 5.53 / 4.22 84 / 105 5.15 / 4.58 5.00 80 0.5 $2.8 $1.5 $1.3
Brian
Burres
SP/RP (50-50) 6.20 / 5.94 73 / 74 5.95 / 4.65 5.75 70 0.0 $0.2 $0.4 -$0.2
George Sherrill RP 4.07 109 4.35 4.00 55 0.8 $4.1 $2.0 $2.1
Jim
Johnson
RP 3.48 122 4.14 4.00 65 0.9 $4.6 $0.4 $4.2
Chris
Ray
RP 4.30 (2007) 108 (2007) 4.24
(2007)
4.50 45 0.3 $1.7 $0.5 $1.2
Dennis Sarfate RP 4.23 105 4.53 4.50 55 0.4 $2.2 $0.4 $1.8
Alberto Castillo RP 4.47 100 4.40 4.50 35 0.2 $1.5 $0.4 $1.1
Jamie Walker RP 6.83 47 5.19 5.00 35 0.0 $0.6 $4.5 -$3.9
Kam
Mickolio
RP 3.91 113 4.49 4.50 35 0.2 $1.5 $0.4 $1.1
Randor
Bierd
RP 5.23 83 5.13 5.00 30 0.1 $1.0 $0.4 $0.6
Danys
Baez
RP 7.04 (2007) 50 (2007) 5.68
(2007)
5.00 30 0.1 $1.0 $5.5 -$4.5
Jim
Miller
RP 3.26 127 4.45 4.50 25 0.2 $1.4 $0.4 $1.0
Total



5.03 1400 11.0 $60.9 $28.8 $32.1

A #1 starter, a #2 starter, and a relief ace, and I think the O's have a good pitching staff. Yep, that's all the need. It's going to have to come from the farm system or the team is going to need to spend $50 M in resources (a year) in either money on the free agent market or in value of players in trade. A lot of the Orioles' hopes are riding on the arms of their Big Three (Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, and Jake Arrietta).

1 comment:

woggy24 said...

How did you calculate Guthrie's salary? He made $770K last year and the team can unilaterally set his salary again this year as low as 80% of what he made last year. Just curious...