Saturday, January 17, 2009

Community Projections: Aubrey Huff

When he played for the (then) Devil Rays, Aubrey Huff was a consistently very good hitter. At the end of his time there, his stats started to take a dive and he was traded to the Astros mid-season. He hit just OK that year (just above league average) and then signed with the Orioles for three years and $21 M.

His first year with the O's was disappointing - .280/.337/.442, 15 HR, .346 wOBA (102 wOBA+). That's fine for a third-baseman, but at this point he's limited mostly to first and DH (though he does fill-in every once in a while). Was he aging or just having some difficulty adjusting to his new team?

Expectations weren't high going into 2008, but Huff exploded with a career year - .304/.360/.552, 32 HR, .382 wOBA (116 wOBA+). He won the Silver Slugger for DHs, and even got some down-ballot MVP votes.

Will Aubrey be able to replicate that performance in 2009, or will he come back down to earth?

I think he can still be a productive hitter, but to ask for another .912 OPS is really pushing it.

Current projection:

625 159 36 2 23 55 .280 .344 .472 .357

with 475 PA at DH and filling in with 150 PA at first-base.

Anybody see another monster year from Aubrey Huff?

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