Friday, January 16, 2009

Community Projections: Nick Markakis

To start out our projections conversation I think it's appropriate to go with the team's best player: Nick Markakis.

Nick won a spot on the team three years ago with a blistering spring training, and went on to hit .291/.351/.448 with 16 HR, a 106 OPS+, and a .351 wOBA (101 wOBA+). When a guy that young is able to provide a league-average bat then you know there's a lot of upside there.

In year two, Markakis improved in every way - especially in the power department. The home runs went up to 23, with a .300/.362/.485 line, 121 OPS+, .374 wOBA (110 wOBA+).

Year three see even more improvement; this time with Nick finally turning one of his best tools - his great batting eye - into results in the stat-sheet. .306/.406/.491 with 20 HR (and 48 doubles), a 134 OPS+, .398 wOBA (119 wOBA+).

It's not often you see a player improve that consistently each year, but Nick is a pretty special player.

I've currently got Nick's projection for next year at

PA H 2B 3B HR BB BA OBP SLG wOBA
650 167 43 2 20 92 .301 .401 .493 .395

That's a pretty great line, and it's still a little worse than he did last year.

Most independent projection systems have an even worse (though still very good) line for Markakis but, given the feedback I've gotten thus far, I think I may actually be low on him.

Have at it...

1 comment:

Heath said...

BA 2B HR OBP SLG OPS OPS+
Markakis '09 .315 40 29 .415 .520 .935 141

I'll let you calculate the wOBA..;-)

My reasoning is explained further here...

http://dempseysarmy.blogspot.com/2009/01/crystal-ball-09-nick-markakis.html