The Tampa Bay Rays have the best record in the AL and are 18.5 games ahead of the Orioles right now. That's pretty amazing, and I will be happily cheering for them once they get to the postseason. They are now the kind of organization the O's should try to model themselves after.
Nice start for the O's against Scott Kazmir, as Brian Roberts draws a walk. Markakis uncharacteristically swings at the first pitch and flies out to center. With Mora up, Roberts steals second fairly easily and then takes third uncontested. Melvin can't get him in though, as he grounds out to third. Neither can Huff, who grounds to first. Despite Robert's efforts in the inning, the O's don't score.
Jeremy Guthrie's starting for the Birds, so this should be a pretty good pitching match-up. Iwamura decides to cut to the chase and just take third right away. Lead-off triple, and now the Rays have a good chance to score. Upton grounds to short, but unlike Roberts in the top of the inning, Iwamura takes off for home. Castro makes a solid throw, and a short rundown results in the first out, though Upton takes second. Carlos Pena walks, and as the ball bounces away from Ramon Upton takes third with a stolen base (he was off during the pitch). Cliff Floyd with a shot into the right-field corner makes it 1-0 Rays. Willie Aybar strikes-out looking and Eric Hinske grounds back to Guthrie to end the inning and leave a couple stranded.
Three-up, three-down go the O's in the second, including a pair of K's.
A one-out single is almost erased by a double play, but Castro's relay throw to first is a bit off-line. Walks to Iwamura and Upton load the bases for Pena, who then walks himself to force in a run. Not the control we're used to from Guthrie. Then Floyd walks to force in another run. Lance Cormier is warming in the pen, with the score 3-0 already. Guthrie finally gets out of it by getting Aybar to pop out.
Castro draws a one-out walk, then Markakis draws a two-out walk. Mora battles through a good at bat and ends up grounding a 3-2 pitch up the middle. Iwamura slides to get it and throws Mora out by a half-step, and Melvin goes to the ground in pain. It looks like a ham-string injury - hopefully it's not serious, but I imagine he'll leave the game.
Alex Cintron takes over for Mora, and Guthrie keeps the Rays off the board despite a single by Gabe Gross.
Ramon finally gets the O's into the hit-column with a line-drive single to right-center. Millar strikes out (Kazmir's second of the inning and fifth of the game) and Luke Scott pops out to leave him stranded. 3-0 Tampa Bay, and I'm not feeling confident about a comeback.
Back-to-back singles by Iwamura and Upton start the fourth. Jim Palmer is noting that Jeremy Guthrie's less than stellar outing thus far may be the result of the number of innings he's thrown this year. (175.1 IP last year and 183.2 IP coming into this game.) I had the same thought during second when he walked in two runs. With a nine-man bullpen and the season already mostly lost, there's not much point in pushing Guthrie too much for the remainder of the year. Carlos Pena walks again (Jeremy's sixth) to load the bases with none out. I have to think he won't be long for this game. Floyd once again pull the ball into the right-field corner for and RBI double; this time scoring two. That makes it 5-0 (with two on and still no outs) and Fernando Cabrera will enter the game. Aybar grounds out to Millar without a run scoring, and Cabrera intentionally walks Hinske to load the bases. Ben Zobrist, deep and gone. A line-drive grand slam into the right-field stands makes it 9-0. Something I found really interesting about the Rays which I don't remember where I read, is that instead of targeting superstars to acquire and assuming they can fill the rest of the spots with whatever role-players, they target role-players. Ben Zobrist, Willy Aybar, Eric Hinske, Cliff Floyd, Gabe Gross, the bullpen arms, etc. These are the guys that are providing the little extra that has made the Rays one of the best teams in baseball. Speaking of Gross - he crushes a home run to dead center to stretch the lead to 10-0. Ramon catches ball two from Cabrera to Iwamura, and gets thrown out of the game for arguing with the umpire. The strike-zone didn't help Guthrie - and it's nice to see Ramon protecting his pitchers, I guess - but it's 10-0 and the team is already playing with a short bench. For all intents and purposes, the game is now over.
I'm going to go ahead and just be happy that the Rays are moving further ahead of the Red Sox (and the Yankees, but New York is already out of it, in my opinion - both in the AL East, as well as the Wild Card). Tampa Bay has a pretty decent chance to win the World Series this year, and this may still be the worst Rays team we say for a while. The core is under control for at least a couple more years, and they have David Price, Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson, etc. coming up soon to further strengthen their rotation. Plus their position prospects. I really do wish they were in another division, because I've been a fan for a couple of years now (since a little while after the new front-office regime took over) and it would be nice to be able to cheer for them outright.
Read more ...
Friday, August 29, 2008
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Those Other Baltimore Birds Are Almost Back
The O's avoided a sweep yesterday, beating the White Sox 11-3. The offense showed up and Radhames Liz pitched relatively well, which was nice to see. The Birds have an off-day today, but that just provides for an opportunity to see the Ravens' last pre-season game. I am officially picking the Ravens to win the AFC North this year, though it may be with only a 9-7 record. With Kyle Boller injured, Troy Smith [Edit: I later found out that Smith is out with a whole array of illnesses. Hope he gets better soon.] and/or Joe Flacco need to play reasonably well against the Falcons tonight to give me a little more confidence in that prediction (even though I know the pre-season doesn't mean much).
Flacco is the starter, and he picks up a first down with a couple short passes after a run by Ray Rice doesn't get much. Then he throws a pass right into the defensive line, which shouldn't happen very often with a QB who's 6'5". On third and long, Flacco goes to the shotgun and completes a nice throw to the outside to Mark Clayton, who avoids a tackle and falls for a first. He looked much smoother on that play than on the previous few. That's where the Baltimore drive stops; the O-line gave Flacco all kinds of time, but Joe couldn't hit his receiver. I see a bit of the Boller jitters in Flacco, but he seems to have more talent (hopefully).
The Ravens' defense is true to form, shutting down the Falcons. They pressure Matt Ryan and stuffed the run, other than one draw play that went for 10 or so. That D is what's going to win the team games this year.
Flacco comes out with a no-huddle offense, which is interesting to see. It doesn't help much, as the go three-and-out. The crowd wanted them to go for it on 4th and inches (as they usually do) but Harbaugh declined from their own 37. Teams don't go for it enough in those types of situations often enough (when in opponents territory). I remember reading a study done that showed that teams leave something like 5 points a game on the field by not taking risks. And that's on average, which accounts for those risks that don't work out.
Nothing doing for the Falcons. It is a rookie QB and all, but I'm still happy to see the defense playing well.
Ray Rice is kind of a little guy, but he should be a nice complementary back to Willis McGahee. Flacco's lack of accuracy is on display before a Ravens' punt.
More smothering defense.
Flacco ends the first quarter with two very nice passes to Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams. The were both right on the money and had some zip to them. Rice starts the second with a quick run that started inside and went outside for 23. The Ravens had a chance to fro a TD, but Flacco's lob to the corner of the end-zone was just out of the reach of a diving Williams and they had to settle for a Stover field-goal. Matt Stover may be one of the most important players in the history of the Ravens.
Atlanta goes to another QB, but the results are largely the same.
Flacco's night is over, as Casey Bramlet (who?) comes in as quarterback. His first pass hits Dan Wilcox in the numbers for a 21 yard gain. The next pass for Wilcox was actually picked off. Oh well.
The Falcons get backed up to their own goal-line and can't get anything going. Another punt.
Bramlet gets pressured out of the pocket and takes off. Instead of sliding, he tries to fall for a first-down, but comes up a few inches short. This time, in Atlanta territory, they go for it on fourth-down. QB keeper and they get the first. The drive stalls, but the Ravens get the ball right back as the Falcons go three-and-out again.
8 plays later another Stover field-goal makes it 6-0.
With about a minute left in the half, the Falcons drive all the way down the field (with the aid of a couple Ravens' penalties) and score to take a 7-6 lead.
The first half didn't go too poorly, but considering they were playing one of the worst teams in the NFL I'm not very happy. I did see a little more on offense than I did last year, so there is some hope that they can put up a few points and take some pressure off the defense. The second half is so boring that I'm falling asleep, so I'll end here. Why is it that I'm always surprised when the football season starts? Maybe it's because the baseball season is in the run to the playoffs, but every year someone tells me that the Ravens play their first game the following week and it always catches me off-guard. Read more ...
Flacco is the starter, and he picks up a first down with a couple short passes after a run by Ray Rice doesn't get much. Then he throws a pass right into the defensive line, which shouldn't happen very often with a QB who's 6'5". On third and long, Flacco goes to the shotgun and completes a nice throw to the outside to Mark Clayton, who avoids a tackle and falls for a first. He looked much smoother on that play than on the previous few. That's where the Baltimore drive stops; the O-line gave Flacco all kinds of time, but Joe couldn't hit his receiver. I see a bit of the Boller jitters in Flacco, but he seems to have more talent (hopefully).
The Ravens' defense is true to form, shutting down the Falcons. They pressure Matt Ryan and stuffed the run, other than one draw play that went for 10 or so. That D is what's going to win the team games this year.
Flacco comes out with a no-huddle offense, which is interesting to see. It doesn't help much, as the go three-and-out. The crowd wanted them to go for it on 4th and inches (as they usually do) but Harbaugh declined from their own 37. Teams don't go for it enough in those types of situations often enough (when in opponents territory). I remember reading a study done that showed that teams leave something like 5 points a game on the field by not taking risks. And that's on average, which accounts for those risks that don't work out.
Nothing doing for the Falcons. It is a rookie QB and all, but I'm still happy to see the defense playing well.
Ray Rice is kind of a little guy, but he should be a nice complementary back to Willis McGahee. Flacco's lack of accuracy is on display before a Ravens' punt.
More smothering defense.
Flacco ends the first quarter with two very nice passes to Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams. The were both right on the money and had some zip to them. Rice starts the second with a quick run that started inside and went outside for 23. The Ravens had a chance to fro a TD, but Flacco's lob to the corner of the end-zone was just out of the reach of a diving Williams and they had to settle for a Stover field-goal. Matt Stover may be one of the most important players in the history of the Ravens.
Atlanta goes to another QB, but the results are largely the same.
Flacco's night is over, as Casey Bramlet (who?) comes in as quarterback. His first pass hits Dan Wilcox in the numbers for a 21 yard gain. The next pass for Wilcox was actually picked off. Oh well.
The Falcons get backed up to their own goal-line and can't get anything going. Another punt.
Bramlet gets pressured out of the pocket and takes off. Instead of sliding, he tries to fall for a first-down, but comes up a few inches short. This time, in Atlanta territory, they go for it on fourth-down. QB keeper and they get the first. The drive stalls, but the Ravens get the ball right back as the Falcons go three-and-out again.
8 plays later another Stover field-goal makes it 6-0.
With about a minute left in the half, the Falcons drive all the way down the field (with the aid of a couple Ravens' penalties) and score to take a 7-6 lead.
The first half didn't go too poorly, but considering they were playing one of the worst teams in the NFL I'm not very happy. I did see a little more on offense than I did last year, so there is some hope that they can put up a few points and take some pressure off the defense. The second half is so boring that I'm falling asleep, so I'll end here. Why is it that I'm always surprised when the football season starts? Maybe it's because the baseball season is in the run to the playoffs, but every year someone tells me that the Ravens play their first game the following week and it always catches me off-guard. Read more ...
Monday, August 25, 2008
Starting Pitching Stuck In Labyrinth Puzzle
The Orioles just got swept at home by the Yankees, and it's Monday. How about some amusement...
And the whole setup is just a trap to capture escaping logicians. None of the doors actually lead out.
Read more ...
And the whole setup is just a trap to capture escaping logicians. None of the doors actually lead out.
Read more ...
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Grouping Starters With tRA+
What is a #1 starter? Is it different than an ace? What about an ACE? How much better is a #1 than a #2? Though these labels are fairly arbitrary, they do provide a quick way of classifying pitcher. I personally break things down into 10 groups; Aces, #1 starters, #1/2's, #2's, #2/3's, #3's, #3/4's (see where this is going yet?), #4's, #4/5's, and #5's (which is where swing-men and the like get lumped in). tRA+ can be used to assign values to the various groups, which is what I did (other factors, such as durability, come into play also, but this is just something I was interested in and not a rigorous study or anything). I then looked at five starters for each club (usually the guys who had pitched to the most, but not always) to see how the rotations stacked up. The labels are based entirely on 2008 pitching performances for the team the player pitched for most; some guys have pitched like Aces despite not being that talented, and some top starters are having relatively down years.
Aces: tRA+ of 135 or better - Cliff Lee (176, CLE), Brandon Webb (165, ARI), Rich Harden (162, OAK), Dan Haren (150, ARI), Tim Lincecum (149, SFG), Joba Chamberlain (145, NYY), Randy Johnson (140, ARI), Jorge Campillo (138, ATL), Chad Billingsley (138, LAD), Roy Halladay (137, TOR), Ervin Santana (137, LAA), Ben Sheets (137, MIL), Sean Gallagher (136, CHC), CC Sabathia (135, CLE)
That is a pretty good collection of pitchers there. Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb are likely to win Cy Young Awards for their respective leagues. Arizona will be tough to beat in the playoffs with Webb, Haren, and a still very effective Randy Johnson. One would have to be crazy to call Jorge Campillo and Sean Gallagher aces, but they've pitched very well (though Gallagher did less well after he was traded to Oakland). Since he was traded, Sabathia has actually been better (180 tRA+). A few names are noticeably missing, but this is for 2008 performance only.
#1's: tRA+ around 130 - Edison Volquez (133, CIN), John Danks (131, CHW), Josh Beckett (130, BOS), Ryan Dempster (130, CHC), Derek Lowe (129, LAD), Javier Vazquez (128, CHW), Matt Cain (127, SFG)
Matt Cain is over-shadowed by Tim Lincecum (which is kind of ironic, since Cain is the way bigger guy), but he's still a very good pitcher. How are the White Sox in first place? Good pitching, from Danks and Vazquez especially. Anyone surprised to see Lowe this high? I was, a little, but he guy still gets those groundballs. Considering how short of a contract he may get this off-season, I wouldn't mind if the O's made an inquiry.
#1/2's: tRA+ around 122 - Andy Sonnanstine (125, TBR), Clayton Kershaw (124, LAD), Jon Lester (123, BOS), AJ Burnett (123, TOR), Kevin Slowey (123, MIN), Tim Hudson (123, ATL), Justin Duchscherer (122, OAK), Jonathan Sanchez (122, SFG), Ubaldo Jimenez (121, COL), Cole Hamels (120, PHI), Scott Kazmir (119, TBR), Jair Jurrjens (119, ATL), Hiroki Kuroda(119, LAD)
Andy Sonnanstine? Really? No wonder the Rays are in first place; their "#4" starter is pitching better than many team's "#1's". The NL West is going to be interesting in the coming years, with Haren, Webb, and Johnson in Arizona; Billingsley, Kershaw, and Kuroda in LA, and Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez in San Fransisco (not to mention Jimenez in Colorado - and Jake Peavy hasn't even been grouped yet). Of these, Hamels and Kazmir are the guys I would have guessed as #1 starters right now.
#2's: tRA+ around 115 - James Shields (117, TBR), Jose Contreras (117, CHW), Justin Verlander (116, DET), Mark Buerhle (116, CHW), Carlos Zambrano (115, CHC), Zach Greinke (114, KCR), Felix Hernandez (114, SEA), Brian Moehler (114, HOU), Johan Santana (113, NYM), Shaun Marcum (112, TOR), Jake Peavy (112, SDP), Matt Garza (112, TBR), Dustin McGowan (112, TOR)
The White Sox, the Blue Jays, and the Rays all have very good rotations. Another surprise, with Brian Moehler ahead of Johan Santana and Jake Peavy. Six teams have yet to be mentioned; the O's, Rangers, Marlins, Nationals, Cardinals, and Pirates. Hard to compete without a top-of-the-rotation starter.
#2/3's: tRA+ around 107 - Scott Baker (111, MIN), Gil Meche (111, KCR), Mike Pelfrey (111, NYM), Jo-Jo Reyes (111,ATL), Daisuke Matsuzaka (110, BOS), Andy Pettitte (110, NYY), Sidney Ponson (110, TEX), Adam Wainwright (109, STL), Aaron Cook (109, COL), Ricky Nolasco (108, FLA), Ted Lilly (108, CHC), Paul Maholm (108, PIT), Jeremy Guthrie (107, BAL), Fausto Carmona (107, CLE), Dave Bush (107, MIL), Doug Davis (107, ARI), Mike Mussina (107, NYY), Nick Blackburn (107, MIN), Jorge De La Rosa (107, COL), Joe Saunders (106, LAA), Roy Oswalt (106, HOU), Cha Seung Baek (106, SDP), Manny Parra (106, MIL)
Only the worst team in baseball (Washington) doesn't have at least one guy above the level of a #3 starter. I guess Texas doesn't have one anymore either, though Sir Sidney has been far worse in his time with the Yankees. The majority of these guys aren't who you would think of as quality starters (Seattle gave Cha Seung Baek away for practically nothing to the Padres, for example). Sorry O's fans, but Jeremy Guthrie really (really) isn't an Ace - he's a good pitcher, but the team will need a better one (or two) to make the playoffs. Or four more guys around his level, I guess. That actually seems more like what they have going on, with Tillman, Arrieta, and Matusz not likely to be #1's but more #2/3's.
#3's: tRA+ around 100 - Chien-Ming Wang (103, NYY), Jared Weaver (103, LAA), Joe Blanton (103, OAK), John Maine (102, NYM), Charlie Morton (102, ATL), Erik Bedard (101, SEA), Andrew Miller (101, FLA), Josh Johnson (101, FLA), Tim Wakefield (100, BOS), Armondo Galarraga (100, DET), Jamie Moyer (100, PHI), Wandy Rodriguez (100, HOU), Shawn Hill (99, WAS), Darrell Rasner (99, NYY), John Lackey (99, LAA), Tim Redding (99, WAS), Gavin Floyd (98, CHW), John Lannan (98, WAS), Jason Bergmann (98, WAS)
The Nats finally show up - four times. If their fifth starter was a #1 instead of a #4/5 (and they had a little offense), then they might having something to work with. Wang isn't a bad pitcher, though he is overrated because of the Wins the Yankees offense gets for him. Jamie Moyer might pitch until he's 50 - he's been throwing about 80-81 for a few years now, and still gets outs. I wonder if the increase in average velocity in baseball (I'm pretty sure that is true) has actually helped Moyer, as hitters are used to gearing up for faster pitches? Lackey is obviously higher than a #3.
#3/4's: tRA+ around 95 - Clay Buchholz (97, BOS), Garrett Olson (97, BAL), Luke Hochaver (97, KCR), Micah Owings (97, ARI), Oliver Perez (96,NYM ), Brett Myers (96, PHI), Kason Gabbard (95, TEX), Jason Marquis (95, CHC), Jesse Litsch (94, TOR), Greg Smith (94, OAK), Todd Wellemeyer (94, STL)
I like this group, since it has a lot of similar pitchers in it. I guess Brett Myers is the one who's fallen farthest, but otherwise it's pretty accurate, I think (though Buchholz will be moving on up in the future). Say it with me everyone; "Garrett Olson is perfectly capable of being a back-of-the-rotation starter for the Orioles next year." Alrighty, then.
#4's: tRA+ around 90 - Livan Hernandez (93, MIN), Bronson Arroyo (93, BOS), Jeremy Bonderman (92, DET), Phil Dumatrait (91, PIT), Jeff Francis (91, COL), Glen Perkins (91, MIN), Johnny Cueto (91, CIN), Dana Eveland (90, OAK), Greg Maddux (90, SDP), Nate Robertson (90, DET), Randy Wolf (90, SDP), Chris Waters (89, BAL), Kyle Lohse (89, STL), Zach Duke (89, PIT), Jarrod Washburn (88, STL), Scott Olsen (88, FLA), Kevin Correia (88, SFG), Kenny Rogers (88, DET), Barry Zito (88, SFG)
No way would I have guessed that Livan and Zito (or Washburn, for that matter) were this high. A few pitchers have a lot more upside than this (Bonderman, Francis, and Cueto in particular; maybe Olsen), but the rest are in this area. Nice to see Chris Waters so close to Kenny Rogers (as the comparison has been made before), though I would prefer if he pitched like The Gambler of five years ago. This is the first year (since 2003 at least) that Maddux has dropped below the #2/3 level. Amazing.
#4/5's: tRA+ around 85 - Kevin Millwood (87, TEX), Mark Hendrickson (87, FLA), Ian Snell (87, PIT), Edwin Jackson (86, TBR), Odalis Perez (86, WAS), Brad Penny (86, LAD), Jon Garland (85, LAA), Brandon Looper (85, STL), Brandon Backe (85, HOU), Carlos Silva (84, SEA), Daniel Cabrera (83, BAL), Paul Byrd (83, CLE), Adam Eaton (83, PHI), Vincente Padilla (83, TEX)
Please Andy MacPhail, don't sign Jon Garland. Do you see Carlos Silva there? Don't make that mistake. That would be bad. In other news, Daniel Cabrera needs to stop trying to be Carlos Silva. He was actually gotten worse (tRA-wise) four years in a year. Stopping trying to throw strikes and just let it rip; at least with 98 mph fastballs, he throws a gem every once in a while. Now, he just is mediocre every time out. Snell is probably the best of this bunch, and I expect to see him back amongst the #1/2's (like he was last year) soon.
#5's: tRA+ around 80 or less - Jeff Suppan (82, MIL), Kyle Davies (81, KCR), Shawn Chacon (80, HOU), Brian Bannister (80, KCR), Scott Feldman (79, TEX), Joel Piniero (79, STL), Aaron Harang (79, CIN), Josh Banks (78, SDP), Brian Burres (77, BAL), Kyle Kendrick (73, PHI), Tom Gorzelanny (73, PIT), Carlos Villanueva (73, MIL), Jeremy Sowers (72, CLE), Greg Reynolds (72, COL), Pedro Martinez (71, NYM), Josh Fogg (66, COL), Miguel Batista (62, SEA)
Pedro just might want to retire after this season. He still can be effective, but I don't know if he's going to be. Harang should shoot back up to the #1's area once he's healthy next year. Banny, unfortunately, might be here to stay. Also, I would just like to once again laugh in the general direction of the Pacific North-West. Yes it's mean (and I'm sorry), but that doesn't make it any less funny to me.
So that's it; 30 teams, 150 pitchers. The O's this season have had a rotation of #2/3, #3/4, #4, #4.5, #5. That will just not cut it. For next year, I see Guthrie (#2/3), Cabrera (#4/5), and hopefully Olson (#3/4) as set. Sheets and Sabathia aren't necessary, but Lowe and Burnett would make the group pretty solid. Lowe (#1), Burnett (#1/2), Guthrie (#2/3), Olson (#3/4), and Cabrera (#4/5) probably won't beat out the other AL East teams, unless Daniel finally turns that corner (at this point, it seems like he's been in a round room his whole career). With a top-five offense though, the O's would have a shot. Read more ...
Aces: tRA+ of 135 or better - Cliff Lee (176, CLE), Brandon Webb (165, ARI), Rich Harden (162, OAK), Dan Haren (150, ARI), Tim Lincecum (149, SFG), Joba Chamberlain (145, NYY), Randy Johnson (140, ARI), Jorge Campillo (138, ATL), Chad Billingsley (138, LAD), Roy Halladay (137, TOR), Ervin Santana (137, LAA), Ben Sheets (137, MIL), Sean Gallagher (136, CHC), CC Sabathia (135, CLE)
That is a pretty good collection of pitchers there. Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb are likely to win Cy Young Awards for their respective leagues. Arizona will be tough to beat in the playoffs with Webb, Haren, and a still very effective Randy Johnson. One would have to be crazy to call Jorge Campillo and Sean Gallagher aces, but they've pitched very well (though Gallagher did less well after he was traded to Oakland). Since he was traded, Sabathia has actually been better (180 tRA+). A few names are noticeably missing, but this is for 2008 performance only.
#1's: tRA+ around 130 - Edison Volquez (133, CIN), John Danks (131, CHW), Josh Beckett (130, BOS), Ryan Dempster (130, CHC), Derek Lowe (129, LAD), Javier Vazquez (128, CHW), Matt Cain (127, SFG)
Matt Cain is over-shadowed by Tim Lincecum (which is kind of ironic, since Cain is the way bigger guy), but he's still a very good pitcher. How are the White Sox in first place? Good pitching, from Danks and Vazquez especially. Anyone surprised to see Lowe this high? I was, a little, but he guy still gets those groundballs. Considering how short of a contract he may get this off-season, I wouldn't mind if the O's made an inquiry.
#1/2's: tRA+ around 122 - Andy Sonnanstine (125, TBR), Clayton Kershaw (124, LAD), Jon Lester (123, BOS), AJ Burnett (123, TOR), Kevin Slowey (123, MIN), Tim Hudson (123, ATL), Justin Duchscherer (122, OAK), Jonathan Sanchez (122, SFG), Ubaldo Jimenez (121, COL), Cole Hamels (120, PHI), Scott Kazmir (119, TBR), Jair Jurrjens (119, ATL), Hiroki Kuroda(119, LAD)
Andy Sonnanstine? Really? No wonder the Rays are in first place; their "#4" starter is pitching better than many team's "#1's". The NL West is going to be interesting in the coming years, with Haren, Webb, and Johnson in Arizona; Billingsley, Kershaw, and Kuroda in LA, and Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez in San Fransisco (not to mention Jimenez in Colorado - and Jake Peavy hasn't even been grouped yet). Of these, Hamels and Kazmir are the guys I would have guessed as #1 starters right now.
#2's: tRA+ around 115 - James Shields (117, TBR), Jose Contreras (117, CHW), Justin Verlander (116, DET), Mark Buerhle (116, CHW), Carlos Zambrano (115, CHC), Zach Greinke (114, KCR), Felix Hernandez (114, SEA), Brian Moehler (114, HOU), Johan Santana (113, NYM), Shaun Marcum (112, TOR), Jake Peavy (112, SDP), Matt Garza (112, TBR), Dustin McGowan (112, TOR)
The White Sox, the Blue Jays, and the Rays all have very good rotations. Another surprise, with Brian Moehler ahead of Johan Santana and Jake Peavy. Six teams have yet to be mentioned; the O's, Rangers, Marlins, Nationals, Cardinals, and Pirates. Hard to compete without a top-of-the-rotation starter.
#2/3's: tRA+ around 107 - Scott Baker (111, MIN), Gil Meche (111, KCR), Mike Pelfrey (111, NYM), Jo-Jo Reyes (111,ATL), Daisuke Matsuzaka (110, BOS), Andy Pettitte (110, NYY), Sidney Ponson (110, TEX), Adam Wainwright (109, STL), Aaron Cook (109, COL), Ricky Nolasco (108, FLA), Ted Lilly (108, CHC), Paul Maholm (108, PIT), Jeremy Guthrie (107, BAL), Fausto Carmona (107, CLE), Dave Bush (107, MIL), Doug Davis (107, ARI), Mike Mussina (107, NYY), Nick Blackburn (107, MIN), Jorge De La Rosa (107, COL), Joe Saunders (106, LAA), Roy Oswalt (106, HOU), Cha Seung Baek (106, SDP), Manny Parra (106, MIL)
Only the worst team in baseball (Washington) doesn't have at least one guy above the level of a #3 starter. I guess Texas doesn't have one anymore either, though Sir Sidney has been far worse in his time with the Yankees. The majority of these guys aren't who you would think of as quality starters (Seattle gave Cha Seung Baek away for practically nothing to the Padres, for example). Sorry O's fans, but Jeremy Guthrie really (really) isn't an Ace - he's a good pitcher, but the team will need a better one (or two) to make the playoffs. Or four more guys around his level, I guess. That actually seems more like what they have going on, with Tillman, Arrieta, and Matusz not likely to be #1's but more #2/3's.
#3's: tRA+ around 100 - Chien-Ming Wang (103, NYY), Jared Weaver (103, LAA), Joe Blanton (103, OAK), John Maine (102, NYM), Charlie Morton (102, ATL), Erik Bedard (101, SEA), Andrew Miller (101, FLA), Josh Johnson (101, FLA), Tim Wakefield (100, BOS), Armondo Galarraga (100, DET), Jamie Moyer (100, PHI), Wandy Rodriguez (100, HOU), Shawn Hill (99, WAS), Darrell Rasner (99, NYY), John Lackey (99, LAA), Tim Redding (99, WAS), Gavin Floyd (98, CHW), John Lannan (98, WAS), Jason Bergmann (98, WAS)
The Nats finally show up - four times. If their fifth starter was a #1 instead of a #4/5 (and they had a little offense), then they might having something to work with. Wang isn't a bad pitcher, though he is overrated because of the Wins the Yankees offense gets for him. Jamie Moyer might pitch until he's 50 - he's been throwing about 80-81 for a few years now, and still gets outs. I wonder if the increase in average velocity in baseball (I'm pretty sure that is true) has actually helped Moyer, as hitters are used to gearing up for faster pitches? Lackey is obviously higher than a #3.
#3/4's: tRA+ around 95 - Clay Buchholz (97, BOS), Garrett Olson (97, BAL), Luke Hochaver (97, KCR), Micah Owings (97, ARI), Oliver Perez (96,NYM ), Brett Myers (96, PHI), Kason Gabbard (95, TEX), Jason Marquis (95, CHC), Jesse Litsch (94, TOR), Greg Smith (94, OAK), Todd Wellemeyer (94, STL)
I like this group, since it has a lot of similar pitchers in it. I guess Brett Myers is the one who's fallen farthest, but otherwise it's pretty accurate, I think (though Buchholz will be moving on up in the future). Say it with me everyone; "Garrett Olson is perfectly capable of being a back-of-the-rotation starter for the Orioles next year." Alrighty, then.
#4's: tRA+ around 90 - Livan Hernandez (93, MIN), Bronson Arroyo (93, BOS), Jeremy Bonderman (92, DET), Phil Dumatrait (91, PIT), Jeff Francis (91, COL), Glen Perkins (91, MIN), Johnny Cueto (91, CIN), Dana Eveland (90, OAK), Greg Maddux (90, SDP), Nate Robertson (90, DET), Randy Wolf (90, SDP), Chris Waters (89, BAL), Kyle Lohse (89, STL), Zach Duke (89, PIT), Jarrod Washburn (88, STL), Scott Olsen (88, FLA), Kevin Correia (88, SFG), Kenny Rogers (88, DET), Barry Zito (88, SFG)
No way would I have guessed that Livan and Zito (or Washburn, for that matter) were this high. A few pitchers have a lot more upside than this (Bonderman, Francis, and Cueto in particular; maybe Olsen), but the rest are in this area. Nice to see Chris Waters so close to Kenny Rogers (as the comparison has been made before), though I would prefer if he pitched like The Gambler of five years ago. This is the first year (since 2003 at least) that Maddux has dropped below the #2/3 level. Amazing.
#4/5's: tRA+ around 85 - Kevin Millwood (87, TEX), Mark Hendrickson (87, FLA), Ian Snell (87, PIT), Edwin Jackson (86, TBR), Odalis Perez (86, WAS), Brad Penny (86, LAD), Jon Garland (85, LAA), Brandon Looper (85, STL), Brandon Backe (85, HOU), Carlos Silva (84, SEA), Daniel Cabrera (83, BAL), Paul Byrd (83, CLE), Adam Eaton (83, PHI), Vincente Padilla (83, TEX)
Please Andy MacPhail, don't sign Jon Garland. Do you see Carlos Silva there? Don't make that mistake. That would be bad. In other news, Daniel Cabrera needs to stop trying to be Carlos Silva. He was actually gotten worse (tRA-wise) four years in a year. Stopping trying to throw strikes and just let it rip; at least with 98 mph fastballs, he throws a gem every once in a while. Now, he just is mediocre every time out. Snell is probably the best of this bunch, and I expect to see him back amongst the #1/2's (like he was last year) soon.
#5's: tRA+ around 80 or less - Jeff Suppan (82, MIL), Kyle Davies (81, KCR), Shawn Chacon (80, HOU), Brian Bannister (80, KCR), Scott Feldman (79, TEX), Joel Piniero (79, STL), Aaron Harang (79, CIN), Josh Banks (78, SDP), Brian Burres (77, BAL), Kyle Kendrick (73, PHI), Tom Gorzelanny (73, PIT), Carlos Villanueva (73, MIL), Jeremy Sowers (72, CLE), Greg Reynolds (72, COL), Pedro Martinez (71, NYM), Josh Fogg (66, COL), Miguel Batista (62, SEA)
Pedro just might want to retire after this season. He still can be effective, but I don't know if he's going to be. Harang should shoot back up to the #1's area once he's healthy next year. Banny, unfortunately, might be here to stay. Also, I would just like to once again laugh in the general direction of the Pacific North-West. Yes it's mean (and I'm sorry), but that doesn't make it any less funny to me.
So that's it; 30 teams, 150 pitchers. The O's this season have had a rotation of #2/3, #3/4, #4, #4.5, #5. That will just not cut it. For next year, I see Guthrie (#2/3), Cabrera (#4/5), and hopefully Olson (#3/4) as set. Sheets and Sabathia aren't necessary, but Lowe and Burnett would make the group pretty solid. Lowe (#1), Burnett (#1/2), Guthrie (#2/3), Olson (#3/4), and Cabrera (#4/5) probably won't beat out the other AL East teams, unless Daniel finally turns that corner (at this point, it seems like he's been in a round room his whole career). With a top-five offense though, the O's would have a shot. Read more ...
Friday, August 22, 2008
O's-Yankees, Loss In The Game - Victory In Life
Radhames Liz was called back up from the minors and thrown right into the fire against the New York Yankees. I'll set the over/under on walks by Liz at 4.5. The guy has a live arm, but I don't have a lot of confidence in him as a major-leaguer yet.
Johnny Damon gets ahead 2-1 but doesn't walk. Instead, he doubles into the corner in right. Cap'n Jeter bloops a single off of Brian Roberts' glove in short center and the Yankees have runners on the corners - not the best start for Liz. Bobby Abreu takes some awkward swings on a couple Liz fastballs, but then adjusts and pulls one through the hole on the right side for an RBI single. A-Rod continues his un-clutch season, grounding to Mora who starts the 5-4-3 double play. Giambi and his 'stache take a 3-1 change-up for a strike, and then Liz comes back to throw a fastball by him for the K. Though it's 1-0 New York, Liz wasn't bad in the inning.
Brian Roberts singles to left to start the O's attack. And then easily steals second. Mike Mussina teaches Nick Markakis something, dropping in a curve for strike one, and fastball on the inside corner for strike two, and then after missing further inside with a second heater, gets him swinging on another curveball. That's vintage Moose. After Melvin lines out to left, Huff comes through yet again with a bouncing single passed a diving Cano at second to tie the game at 1-1. Millar pulls a single just off of Jeter's glove - the middle-infield defense for the Yankees isn't very good. Actually, the outfield defense isn't really either (especially Abreu, who's awful). Luke Scott grounds out, but the O's and Yank's have matching three-hit, one-run innings.
Xavier Nady goes down looking at a 3-2 slider. I like that Liz is willing to throw any pitch in any count, but that strategy would work way better if he could throw those pitches for strikes. Matsui doesn't chase any two-strike pitches and draws a walk. That's one. Liz gets ahead of Cano 0-2 but can't put him away. His single to right brings up Jose Molina. No problem putting him away, as Liz gets him swinging on a slider bouncing in the other batter's box. Ramon has a high fastball go off his glove as he makes only a half-hearted attempt at it. No damage done though, as Damon pops to Millar and leaves a couple on.
1-2-3 go the Birds in the second. I really enjoy watching Mussina pitch. The catcher puts up the glove and Moose throws a fastball right to it. Curveballs dropping in for strikes, varying arm angles - it's not Maddux in his prime but it ain't half bad.
Abreu hits a one-out single up the middle, but gets thrown out trying to steal after A-Rod swings through a high fastball. The generous zone from the plate ump isn't hurting, but Liz is looking pretty good.
Great battle between Mussina and Markakis. Moose starts him off with another curve for strike one, and then a second on a 3-1 count (though Nick started towards first). On 3-2 kakes lines a fastball into center for a single. Mora reaches out and hooks a slider into left for a single. Huff almost takes out an umpire with his line-drive single up the middle. Nick comes around to score and the O's lead 2-1.
The Giambino is first-pitch swinging and ropes and single to right. Unfortunately for him, Giambi wanted to make it a double and his horribly awkward slide took him off the base where Roberts applied the tag. A flyout and a grounder to first on which Millar makes a nice play end the inning. [Brian Matusz is being interviewed in the booth - he seems like a pretty smart guy. When Tillman was interviewed he sounded like a bit of a block-head. I will reserve judgment until there's a larger sample-size, and frankly I don't care as long as he puts up zeroes on the mound. Say what you will about me, but part of why I like Mussina is because he's really bright off the mound. Well, and on the mound.]
Ramon... deep and gone. A laser-beam into the left-field seats makes it 3-1. Can't leave 86 mph fastballs in the middle of the plate. Payton lines a pitch up the middle, but Mussina displays those Gold Glove skillz (sorry; skills), snagging it for the out. Castro takes a slider on the outside corner for the third out, and isn't too pleased about it.
Robbie Cano crushes a high fastball to DEEP right. Onto Eutaw street. Wow. Jose Molina doesn't crush one, but it still clears the right-field fence. Hanging slider and just like that the lead is gone. Abreu singles with two outs, and that'll end Liz's night. He only walked one and K'ed four, but gave up 9 hits and the two homers. I thought he was pretty good - if he had only given up 5 hits instead of the 9, would Trembley have left him out there? He did throw 83 pitches though. Dennis Sarfate comes in and gets A-Rod to end the scoring.
Round three of Markakis vs. Mussina goes to the latter, who gets Nick looking on a slider at the knees. Three-up, three-down go the Birds in the fifth.
Sarfate blows Giambi away with a fastball in the middle of the strike-zone. Man, I missed that while he was in the rotation. Then he blows Nady away. I think it's clear what Sarfate's role on the team should be. Matsui walks, but a flyout to center ends the inning.
[On the broadcast, they are comparing Mike Mussina to Jim Palmer. I have made the point before that, context considered, Palmer wasn't really a much better pitcher (if at all). K/BB? 1.7 for Palmer and 3.6 for Moose. FIP? 3.50 for Palmer and 3.58 for Mussina. That Mike needs to win 20 games this year to maybe get into the Hall of Fame is ridiculous.]
Huff lifts a flyball into the right-field corner, where Bobby Abreu makes a great running catch. Abreu (and Damon) can't get to Millar's drive to right-center though, and it bounces over the fence for a double. Luke Scott singles into right to put runners on the corners. Ramon hits a hanging curveball to the track in deep left, but Nady is there. Millar comes in to score though, and the O's get the lead back.
[I missed a couple innings talking to a friend of mine. Apparently, he's now engaged. Crazy stuff (it wasn't a surprise to me, but there's the "holy crap, my friend is getting married" factor in there). Congratulations to Sean and Zoe, who are both awesome and make each other happy. I once heard, or read, that love is finding someone who's just the same kind of crazy that you are. I think that applies in this situation. Maybe eccentric would be better. In any case, I wish them the best, as well as all the other things people say to that kind of news.]
I'm not paying too much attention to the game now, but why not just bring Jim Johnson in in the eighth with two on and Nady coming up. Going to Kam Mickolio in his second career game just to preserve JJ's "role" as the current closer is stupid. No matter the results. First pitch bounces away from the plate and Abreu scores on the wild pitch. 4-4. Stupid. Nady singles through the drawn-in infield to make 5-4 Yankees. Now Trembley will take him out in favor of the lefty, Alberto Castillo, with Matsui coming up. Stupid. Not that Dave was the one throwing the pitches, but still.
Two home runs later it's 9-4, and that's the score the O's lose by. Sucks. Oh well, at least there was some good news from today. Read more ...
Johnny Damon gets ahead 2-1 but doesn't walk. Instead, he doubles into the corner in right. Cap'n Jeter bloops a single off of Brian Roberts' glove in short center and the Yankees have runners on the corners - not the best start for Liz. Bobby Abreu takes some awkward swings on a couple Liz fastballs, but then adjusts and pulls one through the hole on the right side for an RBI single. A-Rod continues his un-clutch season, grounding to Mora who starts the 5-4-3 double play. Giambi and his 'stache take a 3-1 change-up for a strike, and then Liz comes back to throw a fastball by him for the K. Though it's 1-0 New York, Liz wasn't bad in the inning.
Brian Roberts singles to left to start the O's attack. And then easily steals second. Mike Mussina teaches Nick Markakis something, dropping in a curve for strike one, and fastball on the inside corner for strike two, and then after missing further inside with a second heater, gets him swinging on another curveball. That's vintage Moose. After Melvin lines out to left, Huff comes through yet again with a bouncing single passed a diving Cano at second to tie the game at 1-1. Millar pulls a single just off of Jeter's glove - the middle-infield defense for the Yankees isn't very good. Actually, the outfield defense isn't really either (especially Abreu, who's awful). Luke Scott grounds out, but the O's and Yank's have matching three-hit, one-run innings.
Xavier Nady goes down looking at a 3-2 slider. I like that Liz is willing to throw any pitch in any count, but that strategy would work way better if he could throw those pitches for strikes. Matsui doesn't chase any two-strike pitches and draws a walk. That's one. Liz gets ahead of Cano 0-2 but can't put him away. His single to right brings up Jose Molina. No problem putting him away, as Liz gets him swinging on a slider bouncing in the other batter's box. Ramon has a high fastball go off his glove as he makes only a half-hearted attempt at it. No damage done though, as Damon pops to Millar and leaves a couple on.
1-2-3 go the Birds in the second. I really enjoy watching Mussina pitch. The catcher puts up the glove and Moose throws a fastball right to it. Curveballs dropping in for strikes, varying arm angles - it's not Maddux in his prime but it ain't half bad.
Abreu hits a one-out single up the middle, but gets thrown out trying to steal after A-Rod swings through a high fastball. The generous zone from the plate ump isn't hurting, but Liz is looking pretty good.
Great battle between Mussina and Markakis. Moose starts him off with another curve for strike one, and then a second on a 3-1 count (though Nick started towards first). On 3-2 kakes lines a fastball into center for a single. Mora reaches out and hooks a slider into left for a single. Huff almost takes out an umpire with his line-drive single up the middle. Nick comes around to score and the O's lead 2-1.
The Giambino is first-pitch swinging and ropes and single to right. Unfortunately for him, Giambi wanted to make it a double and his horribly awkward slide took him off the base where Roberts applied the tag. A flyout and a grounder to first on which Millar makes a nice play end the inning. [Brian Matusz is being interviewed in the booth - he seems like a pretty smart guy. When Tillman was interviewed he sounded like a bit of a block-head. I will reserve judgment until there's a larger sample-size, and frankly I don't care as long as he puts up zeroes on the mound. Say what you will about me, but part of why I like Mussina is because he's really bright off the mound. Well, and on the mound.]
Ramon... deep and gone. A laser-beam into the left-field seats makes it 3-1. Can't leave 86 mph fastballs in the middle of the plate. Payton lines a pitch up the middle, but Mussina displays those Gold Glove skillz (sorry; skills), snagging it for the out. Castro takes a slider on the outside corner for the third out, and isn't too pleased about it.
Robbie Cano crushes a high fastball to DEEP right. Onto Eutaw street. Wow. Jose Molina doesn't crush one, but it still clears the right-field fence. Hanging slider and just like that the lead is gone. Abreu singles with two outs, and that'll end Liz's night. He only walked one and K'ed four, but gave up 9 hits and the two homers. I thought he was pretty good - if he had only given up 5 hits instead of the 9, would Trembley have left him out there? He did throw 83 pitches though. Dennis Sarfate comes in and gets A-Rod to end the scoring.
Round three of Markakis vs. Mussina goes to the latter, who gets Nick looking on a slider at the knees. Three-up, three-down go the Birds in the fifth.
Sarfate blows Giambi away with a fastball in the middle of the strike-zone. Man, I missed that while he was in the rotation. Then he blows Nady away. I think it's clear what Sarfate's role on the team should be. Matsui walks, but a flyout to center ends the inning.
[On the broadcast, they are comparing Mike Mussina to Jim Palmer. I have made the point before that, context considered, Palmer wasn't really a much better pitcher (if at all). K/BB? 1.7 for Palmer and 3.6 for Moose. FIP? 3.50 for Palmer and 3.58 for Mussina. That Mike needs to win 20 games this year to maybe get into the Hall of Fame is ridiculous.]
Huff lifts a flyball into the right-field corner, where Bobby Abreu makes a great running catch. Abreu (and Damon) can't get to Millar's drive to right-center though, and it bounces over the fence for a double. Luke Scott singles into right to put runners on the corners. Ramon hits a hanging curveball to the track in deep left, but Nady is there. Millar comes in to score though, and the O's get the lead back.
[I missed a couple innings talking to a friend of mine. Apparently, he's now engaged. Crazy stuff (it wasn't a surprise to me, but there's the "holy crap, my friend is getting married" factor in there). Congratulations to Sean and Zoe, who are both awesome and make each other happy. I once heard, or read, that love is finding someone who's just the same kind of crazy that you are. I think that applies in this situation. Maybe eccentric would be better. In any case, I wish them the best, as well as all the other things people say to that kind of news.]
I'm not paying too much attention to the game now, but why not just bring Jim Johnson in in the eighth with two on and Nady coming up. Going to Kam Mickolio in his second career game just to preserve JJ's "role" as the current closer is stupid. No matter the results. First pitch bounces away from the plate and Abreu scores on the wild pitch. 4-4. Stupid. Nady singles through the drawn-in infield to make 5-4 Yankees. Now Trembley will take him out in favor of the lefty, Alberto Castillo, with Matsui coming up. Stupid. Not that Dave was the one throwing the pitches, but still.
Two home runs later it's 9-4, and that's the score the O's lose by. Sucks. Oh well, at least there was some good news from today. Read more ...
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Alternative Theory
A BBTF commenter's thoughts on the extremely ill-advised Scott Kazmir/Victor Zambrano trade between the Tampa Bay (then, Devil) Rays and the Mets:
"Maybe nobody on the Mets approved the trade. Somebody on the Rays called up as a joke and said they were confirming the trade of Kazmir for Zambrano. Since the organization is so disfunctional, everybody just assumed that somebody else with authority had approved the trade, and they said okay, and shipped Kazmir off -- and they have been trying to explain it ever since.Oh contraire, dear commenter. Steve Phillips, the New York GM at the time, also picked the Mariners to win 92 games and the AL West this year. He really may have thought it was a good idea. Read more ...
Frankly, that seems a lot more rational to me than believing that anybody on the Mets thought the trade was a good idea."
Monday, August 18, 2008
Magnificent Melvin
In honor of his crazy series against the Tigers (10-13, with two doubles, a triple, three home runs, 10 RBI, and six runs scored for a nifty .768/.800/1.769 line) I decided to take a look at Melvin Mora's bounce-back season. First, some history:
2003: .317/.418/.503, 15 HR, .398 wOBA
2004: .340/.419/.562, 27 HR, .419 wOBA
2005: .283/.348/.474, 27 HR, .352 wOBA
2006: .274/.342/.391, 16 HR, .323 wOBA
2007: .274/.341/.418, 14 HR, .336 wOBA
2008: .286/.343/.491, 20 HR, .366 wOBA
Mora showed a very strong walk-rate in '03, but it went down after that to merely a "pretty good" level in '04. From '05-'07 it was right around average (a touch below in the first two years and a bit above in the third), but this year it's fallen off a cliff. It's not quite bad yet, but it's pretty close. This may be a byproduct of his swinging at more pitches out of the strike-zone, though he is also making a good deal more contact with them. The increased contact has lowered his strike-out rate; it was around average for most of his career, but has become pretty good this year. It's not just contact though, it's hard contact. With a 20.7% line-drive rate (about his career average), his .290 BABIP is actually too low. Despite hitting for his highest average in four years, Mora has been unlucky on balls in play. His isolated power, which has in free-fall from '03 to '06, has gone up two years in a row. His home runs per flyball is a bit flukey (13% after 9% last year) but not terribly so. I'll give credit where it's due, and Melvin Mora is having a very fine season. Maybe all those nagging injuries really did take away from his performance. I don't know - and I'm not sure how much I trust him to approach these numbers again next year - but for now I'm just going to watch and enjoy it. Yaye Melvin!
[When I was writing this post, I thought it was odd that showing worse plate discipline resulted in better numbers for Melvin. Though not nearly as extreme, the increase in % of balls swung at reminded me of Vlad Guerrero and his own special talent for being successful with that approach. This year, Vladdy is hitting .285/.348/.492 (to Mora's .286/.343/.491), with 22 HR and a .352 wOBA. I honestly had no idea what Guerrero's line looked like before I looked it up. Spooky.] Read more ...
2003: .317/.418/.503, 15 HR, .398 wOBA
2004: .340/.419/.562, 27 HR, .419 wOBA
2005: .283/.348/.474, 27 HR, .352 wOBA
2006: .274/.342/.391, 16 HR, .323 wOBA
2007: .274/.341/.418, 14 HR, .336 wOBA
2008: .286/.343/.491, 20 HR, .366 wOBA
Mora showed a very strong walk-rate in '03, but it went down after that to merely a "pretty good" level in '04. From '05-'07 it was right around average (a touch below in the first two years and a bit above in the third), but this year it's fallen off a cliff. It's not quite bad yet, but it's pretty close. This may be a byproduct of his swinging at more pitches out of the strike-zone, though he is also making a good deal more contact with them. The increased contact has lowered his strike-out rate; it was around average for most of his career, but has become pretty good this year. It's not just contact though, it's hard contact. With a 20.7% line-drive rate (about his career average), his .290 BABIP is actually too low. Despite hitting for his highest average in four years, Mora has been unlucky on balls in play. His isolated power, which has in free-fall from '03 to '06, has gone up two years in a row. His home runs per flyball is a bit flukey (13% after 9% last year) but not terribly so. I'll give credit where it's due, and Melvin Mora is having a very fine season. Maybe all those nagging injuries really did take away from his performance. I don't know - and I'm not sure how much I trust him to approach these numbers again next year - but for now I'm just going to watch and enjoy it. Yaye Melvin!
[When I was writing this post, I thought it was odd that showing worse plate discipline resulted in better numbers for Melvin. Though not nearly as extreme, the increase in % of balls swung at reminded me of Vlad Guerrero and his own special talent for being successful with that approach. This year, Vladdy is hitting .285/.348/.492 (to Mora's .286/.343/.491), with 22 HR and a .352 wOBA. I honestly had no idea what Guerrero's line looked like before I looked it up. Spooky.] Read more ...
Shea Hillenbrand Was Kinda' Bad
So, you all remember that Miguel Tejada trade? Remember when Miggy got off to that scorching start in Houston and some people were saying he should have been playing shortstop for the O's instead of Luis Hernandez? Well - funny thing - Miguel Tejada has walked 21 times this year, and he has grounded into 21 double plays. Going back the last few years, I only found one non-catcher for whom that was the case; Shea Hillenbrand. Oh, and Tejada is also hitting .283/.317/.421 with 12 HR, while Luke Scott is at .273/.357/.519 with 21 HR. And Houston threw in four more players and around 12 million bucks. Thanks Ed Wade!
Read more ...
Friday, August 15, 2008
O's-Tigers, Mora & Huff Is More Than Enough
The O's travel to Detroit to face the Tigers for three after splitting their four-game set in Cleveland. If the Orioles win two of three then they will leave Detroit with a better record than the supposed AL Central contenders. Wasn't someone supposed to score 1,000 runs this year?
Brain Roberts, batting righty against lefty Nate Robertson, flies out to short left-field. Nick grounds one up the middle, but Placido Polanco ranges to his right and makes a nice play to get Markakis at first. Mora drives the ball into the right-center gap and goes all the way to third. Aubrey Huff brings him in with a single pulled through the right side of the infield. Every time Huff comes to the plate with a runner in scoring position I feel like he'll bring him in. Ramon flies out to center, but Chris Waters has an early 1-0 lead to work with.
Curtis Granderson pulls a ball deep but foul, and settles for a single to center in front of Big Lou Montanez, who's thankfully in there for Payton. Polanco bounces one slowly to Castro at short, but even his quick flip and a good relay from Roberts isn't fast enough to get the double play. Fortunately, Magglio Ordonez has so much hair slowing him down that his grounder to short did result in a double play. Waters does what Cabrera couldn't yesterday and gets out of the first with a lead intact.
Kevin Millar takes a pitch on the inside corner for strike three. Luuuke, actually getting to play against a lefty, falls behind 1-2 but hooks a pitch down the line for a double. Big Lou coming up with a runner in scoring position. Robertson gets him swinging on a slider down and in. Juan Castro does a nice job working a walk to bring Roberts up again. Brian Roberts bloops the first pitch in front of Magglio in right - Inge can't handle the throw home and Luke Scott scores. Then Castro comes in as the ball rolls away from the plate, with Roberts going to second. Markakis flies out to short center, but the lead is now 3-0.
Melvin Mora has to go far to his right into foul territory to get a Miguel Cabrera grounder, but has plenty of time to throw him out at first. Gary Sheffield rips a double down the left-field line - the guy still has a very quick bat. One out later Edgar Renteria hits a grounder up that middle that Waters deflects with his glove. Mora gets to it, but not in time to get an out. The grounder by Inge goes to Mora directly, who throws to second for the force. Waters is looking more like he did in his first start than his second one.
How often do you see a guy make a defensive play to end an inning and then homer to start the next one? Melvin Mora hits it out to left, and the lead is 4-0. Millar hits a line-drive into left-center for a two-out double and Luke Scott draws a walk, but Big Lou leaves them stranded.
Ryan Raburn tries to bunt his way on, but Razor makes a strong throw to first to get him. Granderson hits one down the first-base line, and as the ball goes into the corner in right Curtis makes it all the way to third. Polanco grounds to third, where Mora looks Granderson back to the bag before throwing to first for the out. Magglio draws a walk to put runners on the corners for Miguel Cabrera. Waters gets him looking with a nice 3-2 fastball on (just off) the inside corner.
Juan Castro showing some pop with a double over Granderson's head in center. Roberts has a productive at bat, advancing Castro to third with a groundball to second. Nick can't get him in though, as he swings at the first pitch and grounds weakly to second. Mora walks, but Huff grounds out and the O's are kept off the board for the first time.
Castro makes a throwing error to put Renteria on with two outs, but Mora makes a second nice (not outstanding, but solidly good) play of the inning to end the fourth.
Luke Scott draws a two-out walk, but Big Lou strikes out to leave another runner on base.
Granderson gets another hit to right - this time a single - and comes around to score on Polanco's blast into the left-field seats. That cuts the O's lead in half. A bouncer up the middle by Ordonez brings the tying run to the plate. Waters gets Cabrera to pop out, but Sheffield singles between Castro and Mora to put a couple on with two outs. That'll be it Chris, as Dave Trembley will make a call to the bullpen. Lance Cormier will try to get out of the jam. Waters can't even get through five, though he didn't pitch all that badly. Thames grounds a curveball to third, and Mora beats Cabrera to the bag to end the inning. It's now 4-2 Orioles, and it'll be up to the pen to protect that lead.
Juan Castro picks up his second double of the game, this time off the wall in left. Brian Roberts puts down a sac bunt to move him to third - I don't know why, considering he's a good hitter. Robertson slipped attempting to field it but stayed in the game long enough to walk Markakis on four pitches. Alquino Lopez comes in and gives up a sac fly to Mora to make it 5-2. He does get Huff to pop up for the third out, though.
"Jupiter is big enough to have two moons" - O's commentator (I don't know which one) seeing Jupiter in the night sky. Wikipedia says: "Sixty-three moons orbiting Jupiter have been discovered." Good stuff. Oh, and Lance Cormier pitches a scoreless inning - giving up a single but a caught stealing erases the runner.
At the start of the next inning, Amber Theoharris tells Jim Hunter that she looked it up on Wikipedia and Jupiter has 63 moons. I guess I'm just ahead of the game. In the actual game, the O's put a couple runners on but can not score as Big Lou strikes out for the third time. Jay Payton will replace him in center on defense, with Montanez moving to left.
Easy three-up three-down inning for Cormier - he's done a good job to stop the Detroit comeback.
Roberts singles off of new pitcher Casey Fossum to start the eighth. Nick's less than great night continues as he grounds into a 3-6-3 double play. Mora pops out, and the O's need to hold a three-run lead for two more innings.
Jim Johnson in there for the eighth. After several foul balls, he gets Miguel Cabrera to ground out to third. Melvin has handled a lot of chances tonight. JJ looks very good in K'ing Sheffield getting him to chase a curveball for strike two and then blowing him away with a fastball up and in. Singles by Thames and Renteria brings the tying run to the plate in the person of Brandon Inge. A pop-up to Millar keeps the score at 5-2 going into the ninth.
Aubrey Huff's single to left knocks Fossum out of the game, and the Tigers' former closer Todd Jones comes in. After Ramon flies out, Kevin Millar takes a hanging curveball down the left-field line for a double. Jay Payton gets the intentional walk to load the bases for Big Lou. Montanez grounds slowly to first, but Cabrera drops the ball as he tries to throw home and everyone is safe. Castro grounds to short - Renteria tosses to Polanco to second - Polanco's relay to first hits a sliding Montanez in the arm (which was raised while sliding - or intentionally) - it's not called interference, two runs score, and Jim Leyland comes out to argue. Crazy play. Polanco actually gets thrown out of the game during the argument. The call stands and it's 8-2 O's. Back to the action; Roberts walks on four pitches. Markakis battles at the plate and draws a walk of his own. Mora singles to center to score two more. 10-2, and it's way not a save situation anymore. Huff singles to center to score Markakis - that's his second hit of the inning. Ramon grounds out to finally end the inning - Hernandez made two of the three outs in the ninth. I hope JJ stays out there and picks up a save for this one.
Nope, it'll still be Sherrill. Two flyouts, a four-pitch walk, and a strike-out of Maggs is how the ninth goes.
The Orioles took an early lead and never gave it up. Waters looked OK, but he isn't going to be in the team's long-term rotation plans (probably - hopefully). The offense has another big night, with Mora going 3-4 with 4 RBI and Huff adding three hits and 2 RBI of his own. The win moves the Orioles ahead of Detroit by a half-game in the Wild Card standings, though both teams are clearly out of it. Read more ...
Brain Roberts, batting righty against lefty Nate Robertson, flies out to short left-field. Nick grounds one up the middle, but Placido Polanco ranges to his right and makes a nice play to get Markakis at first. Mora drives the ball into the right-center gap and goes all the way to third. Aubrey Huff brings him in with a single pulled through the right side of the infield. Every time Huff comes to the plate with a runner in scoring position I feel like he'll bring him in. Ramon flies out to center, but Chris Waters has an early 1-0 lead to work with.
Curtis Granderson pulls a ball deep but foul, and settles for a single to center in front of Big Lou Montanez, who's thankfully in there for Payton. Polanco bounces one slowly to Castro at short, but even his quick flip and a good relay from Roberts isn't fast enough to get the double play. Fortunately, Magglio Ordonez has so much hair slowing him down that his grounder to short did result in a double play. Waters does what Cabrera couldn't yesterday and gets out of the first with a lead intact.
Kevin Millar takes a pitch on the inside corner for strike three. Luuuke, actually getting to play against a lefty, falls behind 1-2 but hooks a pitch down the line for a double. Big Lou coming up with a runner in scoring position. Robertson gets him swinging on a slider down and in. Juan Castro does a nice job working a walk to bring Roberts up again. Brian Roberts bloops the first pitch in front of Magglio in right - Inge can't handle the throw home and Luke Scott scores. Then Castro comes in as the ball rolls away from the plate, with Roberts going to second. Markakis flies out to short center, but the lead is now 3-0.
Melvin Mora has to go far to his right into foul territory to get a Miguel Cabrera grounder, but has plenty of time to throw him out at first. Gary Sheffield rips a double down the left-field line - the guy still has a very quick bat. One out later Edgar Renteria hits a grounder up that middle that Waters deflects with his glove. Mora gets to it, but not in time to get an out. The grounder by Inge goes to Mora directly, who throws to second for the force. Waters is looking more like he did in his first start than his second one.
How often do you see a guy make a defensive play to end an inning and then homer to start the next one? Melvin Mora hits it out to left, and the lead is 4-0. Millar hits a line-drive into left-center for a two-out double and Luke Scott draws a walk, but Big Lou leaves them stranded.
Ryan Raburn tries to bunt his way on, but Razor makes a strong throw to first to get him. Granderson hits one down the first-base line, and as the ball goes into the corner in right Curtis makes it all the way to third. Polanco grounds to third, where Mora looks Granderson back to the bag before throwing to first for the out. Magglio draws a walk to put runners on the corners for Miguel Cabrera. Waters gets him looking with a nice 3-2 fastball on (just off) the inside corner.
Juan Castro showing some pop with a double over Granderson's head in center. Roberts has a productive at bat, advancing Castro to third with a groundball to second. Nick can't get him in though, as he swings at the first pitch and grounds weakly to second. Mora walks, but Huff grounds out and the O's are kept off the board for the first time.
Castro makes a throwing error to put Renteria on with two outs, but Mora makes a second nice (not outstanding, but solidly good) play of the inning to end the fourth.
Luke Scott draws a two-out walk, but Big Lou strikes out to leave another runner on base.
Granderson gets another hit to right - this time a single - and comes around to score on Polanco's blast into the left-field seats. That cuts the O's lead in half. A bouncer up the middle by Ordonez brings the tying run to the plate. Waters gets Cabrera to pop out, but Sheffield singles between Castro and Mora to put a couple on with two outs. That'll be it Chris, as Dave Trembley will make a call to the bullpen. Lance Cormier will try to get out of the jam. Waters can't even get through five, though he didn't pitch all that badly. Thames grounds a curveball to third, and Mora beats Cabrera to the bag to end the inning. It's now 4-2 Orioles, and it'll be up to the pen to protect that lead.
Juan Castro picks up his second double of the game, this time off the wall in left. Brian Roberts puts down a sac bunt to move him to third - I don't know why, considering he's a good hitter. Robertson slipped attempting to field it but stayed in the game long enough to walk Markakis on four pitches. Alquino Lopez comes in and gives up a sac fly to Mora to make it 5-2. He does get Huff to pop up for the third out, though.
"Jupiter is big enough to have two moons" - O's commentator (I don't know which one) seeing Jupiter in the night sky. Wikipedia says: "Sixty-three moons orbiting Jupiter have been discovered." Good stuff. Oh, and Lance Cormier pitches a scoreless inning - giving up a single but a caught stealing erases the runner.
At the start of the next inning, Amber Theoharris tells Jim Hunter that she looked it up on Wikipedia and Jupiter has 63 moons. I guess I'm just ahead of the game. In the actual game, the O's put a couple runners on but can not score as Big Lou strikes out for the third time. Jay Payton will replace him in center on defense, with Montanez moving to left.
Easy three-up three-down inning for Cormier - he's done a good job to stop the Detroit comeback.
Roberts singles off of new pitcher Casey Fossum to start the eighth. Nick's less than great night continues as he grounds into a 3-6-3 double play. Mora pops out, and the O's need to hold a three-run lead for two more innings.
Jim Johnson in there for the eighth. After several foul balls, he gets Miguel Cabrera to ground out to third. Melvin has handled a lot of chances tonight. JJ looks very good in K'ing Sheffield getting him to chase a curveball for strike two and then blowing him away with a fastball up and in. Singles by Thames and Renteria brings the tying run to the plate in the person of Brandon Inge. A pop-up to Millar keeps the score at 5-2 going into the ninth.
Aubrey Huff's single to left knocks Fossum out of the game, and the Tigers' former closer Todd Jones comes in. After Ramon flies out, Kevin Millar takes a hanging curveball down the left-field line for a double. Jay Payton gets the intentional walk to load the bases for Big Lou. Montanez grounds slowly to first, but Cabrera drops the ball as he tries to throw home and everyone is safe. Castro grounds to short - Renteria tosses to Polanco to second - Polanco's relay to first hits a sliding Montanez in the arm (which was raised while sliding - or intentionally) - it's not called interference, two runs score, and Jim Leyland comes out to argue. Crazy play. Polanco actually gets thrown out of the game during the argument. The call stands and it's 8-2 O's. Back to the action; Roberts walks on four pitches. Markakis battles at the plate and draws a walk of his own. Mora singles to center to score two more. 10-2, and it's way not a save situation anymore. Huff singles to center to score Markakis - that's his second hit of the inning. Ramon grounds out to finally end the inning - Hernandez made two of the three outs in the ninth. I hope JJ stays out there and picks up a save for this one.
Nope, it'll still be Sherrill. Two flyouts, a four-pitch walk, and a strike-out of Maggs is how the ninth goes.
The Orioles took an early lead and never gave it up. Waters looked OK, but he isn't going to be in the team's long-term rotation plans (probably - hopefully). The offense has another big night, with Mora going 3-4 with 4 RBI and Huff adding three hits and 2 RBI of his own. The win moves the Orioles ahead of Detroit by a half-game in the Wild Card standings, though both teams are clearly out of it. Read more ...
We've Got Ourselves A Matusz
The O's finally signed first-round draft pick Brain Matusz today. I'm glad it didn't go right down to the deadline, as the two sides weren't all that close in recent days. A major league contract with a $3.2 MM signing bonus was agreed upon, and Matusz should see action in the Arizona Fall League or Hawaiian Winter League. I was hoping for a $3 MM max, but $3.2 isn't that bad and isn't that far above slot. Considering Buster Posey is going to get around $7.5 MM, I'm pretty happy. I would have preferred it not be a ML deal so that the team saved an option (to send him back down to the minors, which they'll now need to use right away) as well as a spot on the 40-man roster. Whatever - dreaming about a Tillman / Matusz top of the rotation is enough for this O's fan today. I guess I can add "Matusz" to the spell-checker on here now, since I imagine I'll be using it quite often in the future.
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