Early Look At The Minor Leaguers

Since the present isn't especially bright (what with Matt Albers blowing a 4-3 lead as the O's lost 6-4 to Texas), maybe a look to the future via the Orioles' minor league affiliates would be better.

Triple-A

• Nolan Reimold is just destroying the ball, hitting .417/.486/.750 with 6 HR and 3 SB to boot. Now the O's just need to find a place for him.
• Scott Moore isn't exactly tearing the cover off the ball (.288/.348/.475), but that kind of line might translate into fine numbers for a utility player at the major league level.
• Matt Wieters was hurt and is hitting a lowly .270/.400/.405, but he has hit a 5 run HR. Twice.
• David Pauley had a tough spring, but he has an ERA of 3.00 with a 0.94 WHIP and an 8:3 strike-out to walk ratio in 18 innings. Then there's the 53% groundball rate.
  
• David Hernandez just keeps striking people out; he has 23 K's in 14 IP with just 5 walks. Wow.
• By comparison, Chris Tillman's 15 K's in 14 IP (with 7 BB's) seems unimpressive. At least he has a 1.29 ERA.

Double-A

• Brandon Snyder's bat is back (.355/.397/.548), but I don't know if it's back enough to play at first-base at the major league level.
• Jake Arrieta continues getting K's (22 in 18 IP) while working on his control (8 BB). The 2.00 ERA is shiny though.
• Not as shiny as Troy Patton's 0.55 ERA, despite just 10 K's and 6 BB in 16 IP. I have to think he'll see Triple-A in the fairly near future, with a call-up to the majors later in the year a possibility. It's just nice to see him back healthy.
• Brandon Erbe is still just 21, and he's acquiring himself quite well in his first go-around at this level. 1.29 ERA, 14 IP, 16 K, 7 BB, 2 HR. And yet he's somehow 0-3.

A+

• 2008 draft-pick Caleb Joseph is hitting .327/.327/.462, which is pretty good for a catcher. The zero walks is a cause for concern though.
• Ryan Adams has a higher OBP than SLG with his .364/.462/.455 line. If only he could play shortstop.
• Pedro Florimon can play shortstop (though he has 8 errors) and he's showing some pop (.297/.352/.516) after not doing anything at all last year (.595 OPS).
• Billy Rowell has been moved to the outfield, where his bat will play even less (.274/.366/.419). I went down to Frederick a little while ago, and he looked bad both at the plate and in the field. Not much confidence that he'll make it to the big leagues.
• Brian Matusz may be a little too advanced for this level (26 K's in 21.2 IP). I was expecting better control though (9 BB's) and hopefully the HR (3 already) don't become an issue.
• Pedro Beato is on his way back after 5.85 ERA last year. His ERA is still high (4.50), but he does have 18 K's in 20 IP. And 5 HR. Oh well.
• Zach Britton has a nice 1.93 ERA, but his control (8 BB's in 14 IP) and groundball tendencies (48% after an excellent 65% last year) are less than ideal.
• Rich Hill has made one appearance, striking out 3 in 3 IP and not allowing a walk (though he did hit a guy, which is way more satisfying). Looking forward to seeing him in Baltimore soon.

A

• Xavier Avery is hitting .140/.140/.160 and has 20 K's in 50 AB. I'm just saying, I didn't think he was a particularly good pick in the draft.
• Rick Zagone has a 1.72 ERA with 11 K's and 6 BB"s in 15.2 IP. And an 81% groundball rate. At least the infielders get a lot of practice.
• Maybe it's the ballpark since Oliver Drake has a 60% groundball rate to go along with 11 K's to 2 BB's in 13 IP.

The Big Three pitching prospects are all off to good starts, with Brandon Erbe and David Hernandez providing some depth behind them. Reimold and Snyder are showing that the system isn't all pitching, and of course Matt Wieters is just awesome. The O's should see some reserves showing up sooner than later. Read more ...

Having Wieters Solves A Lot Of Problems

The HardballTimes is ranking the 30 minor league systems based on expected value produced by their top prospects. They’re coming up with that value by looking at how much value past prospects contributed to their teams depending on how they were ranked individually and splitting out pitchers from position players.

The Orioles come in at #7, with a net present value of $112.03 M:

“Top 100 Prospects: Matt Wieters (1), Brian Matusz (23), Chris Tillman (24), Jake Arrieta (62)
Someone could make a legitimate case that the Orioles have the top farm system in baseball simply because of Matt Wieters. Baltimore's system may be the most top heavy farm system in the game. The fact that three of the top four are pitchers adds to the risk.”

That three of the top four are pitchers is likely by design, as Andy MacPhail has repeatedly said that he wants to develop pitchers and supplement them with position players via free agency. Someone could make the case that Wieters gives the O’s the top farm system baseball (I won’t), but I do think it’s reasonable to bump them up at least a notch or two (with SFG at $122.95 M, FLA at $131.26 M, and OAK at $133.32 M being the teams ahead of them).

BeyondTheBoxScore is doing something similar, but is including prospects out of the top 100 overall. They haven’t gotten to the AL East yet (they’re going division by division), but when they do I imagine the O’s will rank similarly high (and I’ll comment on it). Victor Wang (who did the HardballTimes piece, is also going to expand it out past the top 100 later too – I imagine the two will match up pretty well). Read more ...

Top 5 System By Year's End?

The O's recent struggles just serve to remind us that this is a rebuilding year. With that in mind, lets take another look around the farm.

AAA:

Mike Costanzo: 24 year-old 3B, 262 / 333 / 402, 10 HR, 124:38 K to walk ratio
Norfolk isn't the easiest park to hit in, but he's not showing much power on the road either. If he had been able to handle catching then his line would be OK. As it is, those strike-outs would be a lot easier to handle if it came with some power.

Scott Moore: 24 year-old 3B, 248 / 317 / 409, 7 HR, 66:22 K to BB
He actually is hitting better on the road (255 / 324 / 459), but it's still not great. Still has a chance to turn into a solid utility guy.

Hayden Penn: 23 year-old RHP, 5.17 ERA, 5.07 FIP, 10.1 H per 9 IP, 5.9 K/9 3.4 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9
His walks are up and his K's are down. Penn is still young, but he's running out of time to earn a place in the O's rotation.

AA:

Matt Wieters: 22 year-old catcher, 333 / 423 / 567, 5 HR, 15:14 K to BB since his promotion from A-Ball where he hit 345 / 446 / 576.
Right now, Wieters could probably outhit Quiroz and catch better than Ramon, and maybe vice versa. He's one of the top 5 prospects in all of baseball.

Nolan Reimold: 24 year-old OF, 292 / 363 / 504, 18 HR, 55:44 K to BB
He's hitting for average and power, and showing a good eye at the plate. May end up as a top 100 prospect by the end of the year, and should get at shot at LF in Baltimore before long.

David Hernandez: 23 year-old RHP, 2.63 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 6.9 H/9, 10.6 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9
He's having another very good year, and may end up on some prospect lists soon. His low HR rate won't likely continue with as many flyballs as he allows, but #3 starter upside is there.

Bradley Bergesen: 22 year-old RHP, 2.91 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 8.6 H/9, 4.6 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9
A groundball pitcher with very good control, Bergesen will need to up that strike-out rate at least a little to be more than a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Chris Tillman: 20 year-old RHP, 3.44 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 7.8 H/9, 9.2 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9
Still walking a few too many, but he's very young for his level. Top 20, maybe even top 10, prospect.

Jason Berken: 24 year-old RHP, 3.51 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 9.1 H/9, 7.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9
He's old for his level, put pitching quite well. Another interesting back-of-the-rotation arm.

Chorye Spoone: 22 year-old RHP, 4.57 ERA, 4.97 FIP, 8.7 H/9, 7.0 K/9, 5.9 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9
He's still getting the groundball, but everything else has regressed. He's been injured though, so hopefully things will get better in the second half. Those walks definitely have to go down, but I'm still confident about his long-term prospects.

A:

Brandon Snyder: 21 year-old 1B, 294 / 332 / 468, 9 HR, 60:18 K to BB
He's hitting pretty well again for the first time in 3 years, but the walks are still low. Maybe not an impact prospect anymore, but he still has time.

Billy Rowell: 19 year-old 3B, 239 / 313 / 356, 4 HR, 70:28 K to BB
Every time he gets promoted a level, he gets worse. He's still very young, but that will only work for so long before some actual production is required.

Jake Arrieta: 22 year-old RHP, 2.87 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 6.3 H/9, 9.6 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9
He's moving up some prospect lists pretty quickly, though it would be nice to see fewer free-passes. I'm excited to see how he does against stiffer competition in the Olympics.

Pedro Beato: 21 year-old RHP, 4.48 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 10.0 H/9, 4.8 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9
More groundballs and fewer walks is good, but his K rate is plummeting.

Brandon Erbe: 20 year-old RHP, 4.55 ERA, 4.46 FIP, 8.5 H/9, 10.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.5 HR/9
He's giving up a lot of home runs, but everything else looks pretty good. He's almost cut his walk rate in half, and is back on the prospect radar.

Tyler Kolodny: 20 year-old 3B, 270 / 391 / 426, 3 HR, 32:16 K to walk
It's not a big sample, but it's hard to dislike that OBP. Maybe not a star in the making, but someone to keep an eye on.

Ryan Adams: 21 year-old 2B, 294 / 351 / 428, 7 HR, 72:25 K to BB
Not a base-stealer (4 for 9) but he's producing pretty well. I'd like to see him against some more advanced competition.

Zach Britton: 20 year-old LHP, 2.82 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 7.3 H/9, 6.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9
Has improved both his strike-out and walk rates, and is still getting a ton of groundballs.

Luis Noel: 20 year-old RHP, 3.72 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 7.8 H/9, 7.9 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9
I know next to nothing about him, but those numbers aren't bad.

Tony Butler: 20 year-old LHP, 4.42 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 9.7 H/9, 7.2 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9
So much for control problems. I'm excited to see what he can do at a higher level, despite the so-so ERA.

The system pretty much shakes out as Reimold, Wieters, and a bunch of pitchers. It has come a long way in the last couple of years though, and should look even better once the draft picks get some significant playing time. Read more ...

Isn't That Backwards?

The Brewers are implementing a strange practice for their minor league pitchers:

"Beginning this week at Class A Brevard County, relievers will start games before turning it over to the "starters" in the third or the fourth. By starting the starter later in games, the Brewers hope their young players develop a "nine-inning mindset" by the time they reach the Majors."

It seems to me that this is basically a psychological ploy, as it doesn't actually help the pitchers to throw nine innings. I don't think it will work very well, and it may actually be problematic as the pitchers will sometimes come into games with their team behind. That has the flip effect of taking away the "this is MY game" mentality. Like a lot of things, I guess we'll just have to wait and see. If it works (gets the pitchers deeper into games as the progress through the system) then I wonder if other teams will start doing it. The Brewers are a smart organization so I'm sure they put a lot of thought into the decision. Read more ...

Joining The Ranks

To commemorate all of the new prospects that will be entering the O's system, lets look at some current minor leaguers who are doing well.

Luis Terrero, Oscar Salazar, Greg Aquino and Esteban Yan are probably the guys playing best at AAA, so we'll move down a level.

Nolan Reimold (RF) is up to 272 / 365 / 475, 8 HR, 33:31 K to BB. He's showing that patience and power that I've been waiting for. He should be moved up to AAA fairly soon, and will probably be worth a September call-up.

Jonathon Tucker (2B) is kind of old for the level (24), but has shown a good eye at the plate in hitting 275 / 377 / 433, 3 HR, 26:26. I'd move him up to AAA and see if he can handle it. If he can keep that OBP up, then it's not crazy to think he could be serviceable filling in for Roberts, despite not being a real prospect.

Jason Berken (RHSP) has been very good despite the 4.86 ERA; 49:9 K to BB, and 4 HR in 63 IP. Also 24, but very good control and an OK K rate make me think a #4/5 starter ceiling despite less than excellent stuff.

David Hernandez (RHSP) - 3.19 ERA, 59.1 IP, 70:29, 6 HR. Power arm with control issues. Hard to deny that 10.6 K/9, and if he can get the walks down his ceiling is that of a #3 starter. Otherwise, he could be a good arm out of the pen.

Chris Tillman (RHSP) - 2.76 ERA, 58.2 IP, 59:30, 2 HR. Power arm with control issues, but he has better stuff than Hernandez and is three years younger. The Bedard trade already looks great with just Jones and Sherrill (10 Win Shares to 2 for Seattle), but once Tillman hits the majors it might turn out to be a big-time steal.

Brad Bergesen (RHSP) - 2.39 ERA, 52.2 IP, 26:11, 2 HR. Extreme groundball pitcher with good control. Could eventually be in the mix for the #4/5 starter roles.

Matt Wieters (C) is of course crushing the ball - 337 / 432 / 565, 12 HR, 37:31. He is striking out a bit too much for my liking, but needs to be moved up right after the league's All-Star game (where he'll be starting) at the latest.

Jake Arrieta (RHSP) is likewise dominating - 2.45 ERA, 69.2 IP, 72:36, 4 HR. He is walking a few too many guys for my liking, but needs to be moved up right after the league's All-Star game (in which he'll likely pitch) at the latest.

Brandon Erbe (RHSP) is bouncing back this season - 5.01 ERA, 64.2 IP, 59:17, 10 HR. He is giving up a few too many home runs for my liking, and should probably stay at this level unless he really starts to dominate.

Zach Britton (LHSP) - 3.18 ERA, 62.1 IP, 42:14, 4 HR. Another groundball pitcher with pretty good control. His ceiling is higher than Bergesen, since he has better stuff and is a lefty.

Tony Butler (LHSP) was supposed to have control issues, but they haven't shown up so far this year - 4.21 ERA, 47 IP, 35:7, 5 HR. Now we're just piling on with that Bedard trade. Read more ...

Down On The Farm

I think it's a good time to take a look around the minors again. Just how are those Orioles farmhands doing?

Scott Moore is hitting just 191 / 276 / 372 with a less than ideal 7:26 BB to strike-out ratio. He has always been a high strike-out guy, but the walks haven fallen off quite a bit. Once his BABIP levels off (it's .231 and it should be .280) he should be OK with the average. His wOBA (weighted On-Base Average - "The formula for wOBA is wOBA = (0.72 BB + 0.75 HBP + 0.90 1B + 0.92 RBOE + 1.24 2B + 1.56 3B + 1.95 HR) / PA. Pretty simple - the multiplication is performed according to run values of each event scaled to look like OBP (in this case, the ratio of one to another is more important than the actual multiplications).") is .287; down from .385 in AAA last year. I still think that he can become a solid utility player - one that has a much better bat than the usual breed. He hasn't been playing as much 2B/SS as I expected though. I don't know if that means he can't handle the positions or what.

Mike Costanzo (basically, Scott Moore V.2) is at 238 / 305 / 344, 15:55. Moving up to AAA, his walks have gone way done and his K's have gone up. He hasn't even been unlucky with the BA, as his BABIP (.355) is where it should be (.350). Continuing the Moore comparison, he has a .286 wOBA, down from .358 in AA last year. He hasn't been seeing much time behind the plate - which is something I would like to see. Like Moore, he probably won't be a regular at the major league level, so his main chance to contribute is to keep his walks up (to go with his power, which actually hasn't shown up yet) and to be capable of playing multiple positions. If he can slide in as a back-up or emergency catcher, it'll be much easier for him to find a spot on the bench.

Hayden Penn: 59.2 IP, 4.68 ERA, 22:34 BB to K ratio, 4.78 FIP. He's giving up a few too many HR, but the main problem has been the low K rate. The walks aren't great at 3.3 per nine, but he has to strike out more than 5.1 per nine to be an effective starter with his flyball stuff. I expect the K's to pick up as we move along this season, as he has been much better about that in his minor league career. Still only 23, so there's no reason to write him off.

Radhames Liz: 52.2 IP, 4.44 ERA, 22:50, 3.40 FIP. Liz has pitched much better than his ERA would show. His K's are down a little, but he has also cut his walk rate. After a rough stretch (coinciding with talk of him coming up to the majors) Liz was very good in his last start (7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K). Another power arm for the bullpen, I think. For some reason, I've never really thought much of Liz - I was always surprised when he was mentioned on prospect lists. I guess that means I won't be disappointed if he flames out, but he still has an electric arm.

Nolan Reimold: 282 / 359 / 471, 21:24, .355 wOBA. After a slow start, Reimold is really picking it up (317 / 385 / 585 in May). Bring the 24 year-old up to AAA and see if he'll be in a position to help the team in the second half (or next year).

David Hernandez: 47.1 IP, 3.04 ERA, 23:59, 3.80 FIP. If Hernandez keeps striking out over a batter an inning (which he's done every year) then has relative lack of "stuff" won't keep him from getting mentioned in prospect circles. The walks are an issue, but he should see AAA soon. I don't think he'll make the rotation, but he could be a successful reliever in the majors.

Chorye Spoone: 17.1 IP, 4.67 ERA, 11:17, 4.07 FIP. I don't know why the innings are so low; perhaps he was hurt? The walk problems he alleviated somewhat last year have come back, but it is a very small sample-size. Spoone is a guy I really like - I think he can definitely be a #2/3 starter in the bigs.

Chris Tillman: 42.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 22:40, 3.56 FIP. Looks like promoting him to AA was a good call. The walks are still too high, and he's been lucky with balls in play, but I definitely like what I see. Maybe not the "Ace of the Future", but a very good pitching prospect nonetheless.

Jason Berken: 51.1 IP, 3.16 ERA, 4:44, 2.66 FIP. A K to BB rate of 11 is very impressive. His control has been fantastic, and a move up to AAA is probable soon. He is 24, so he's not really a top prospect, but there's no reason he can't step up and contribute.

Brad Bergesen: (AA) 33 IP, 1.36 ERA, 8:12, 3.69 FIP. The .233 BABIP means he's been lucky, and he isn't striking anyone out so for. He's getting lots of groundballs though, and has shown solid control. Has already made the jump from Frederick this year, so he will probably stay in AA for the rest of 2008. With him and Spoone, that Bowie infield should get a lot of work.

Kam "The Almighty" Mickolio: 24.1 IP, 4.07 ERA, 14:22, 3.78 FIP. He's come as advertised; lots of K's, lots of walks, and lots of groundballs (56%). Once his control improves even a little, I think he'll be making his way to AAA.

Billy Rowell: 282 / 347 / 435, 8:27, .343 wOBA. Where's the power? Rowell is supposed to be a big strong guy, but he has just 14 HR in his professional career (2 this year). The line-drive rate that fell off a cliff last year is still down, and he is hitting everything on the ground (65% GB rate). He is only 19, so there is plenty of time for him to develop, but it was a lot easier to swallow poor production when he was really young for his league.

Ryan McCarthy: 310 / 370 / 476, 4:8, .369 wOBA. Who the heck is this kid, and do the O's have a shortstop prospect on their hands? He's been lucky on balls in play, but I'll now add him to the list of players to follow in the minors. [Oops. I just saw that he is already 24, soon to be 25. That won't cut it in A+ ball.]

Brandon Snyder: 253 / 290 / 387, 7:31, .294 wOBA. Yikes. He's cut his K's a bit, but he's just not walking anymore. Already 21 in A+ ball, so his chances of becoming a starting first baseman aren't looking great (for those of us who thought he might actually hit well enough to play first).

Pedro Floriman: 186 / 222 / 209, 2:16, .200 wOBA. This guy was the SS of the future when he debuted hitting 333 / 456 / 425 in Rookie ball in 2006. His once good batting eye is gone, as are his chances of ousting Alex Cintron (or whoever is eventually there) are nearly gone with it.

Matt Wieters: 348 / 435 / 617, 22:26, .418 wOBA. What the heck is he still doing in Frederick? He has 11 HR and is destroying those pitchers. A September call-up to Baltimore really isn't out of the question - especially if Ramon is traded.

Jacob Renshaw: 50.1 IP, 3.93 ERA, 20:34, 4.77 FIP. A solid enough pitching prospect in general, but free talent considering he was acquired from the Cubs for Steve Trachsel. I expect nothing from him in the majors, and so I won't be disappointed.

Brandon Erbe: 47.2 IP, 5.10 ERA, 11:45, 4.59 FIP. He's given up a lot of homers (9), but has otherwise been very good. If the HR thing is flukey, then he might see AA this year. The 4 K's per walk is where he was back in 2005 when people were so excited about him. It was less than 2 in his horrible 2007 campaign, so there is some reasons to think he's turned it around. Electric arm could find itself in the pen as well, but it would look awfully good at the front of the rotation.

Jake Arrieta: 59.2 IP, 1.51 ERA, 27:64, 2.62 FIP. Pretty good fifth round draft pick, eh? He is old for the league (22) but he is dominating and needs to be moved up to AA right now.

Tony Butler: 34 IP, 3.97 ERA, 5:26, 3.56 FIP. Boy is that Bedard trade looking good so far. His control issues have disappeared, and he has been all kinds of fantastic at Delmarva. How can he not be promoted to at least Frederick soon?

Zach Britton: 51.1 IP, 2.98 ERA, 10:36, 3.30 FIP. For the second straight year, Britton has almost halved his walk rate. Like Butler, he should be moved up to Frederick in the near future. [I'm a big fan of advancing guys that have had success. I'd rather a guy be a bit below average but young for his league than blow away inferior competition. I think players - especially pitchers - learn more that why. If a 22 year-old has a ton of success in A ball just throwing it by people, then leaving him down there may make him more attached to that manner of pitching. But seriously, what do I know?]

Cole McCurry: 40.2 IP, 5.57 ERA, 9:39, 3.99 FIP. Another lefty at Delmarva. He's given up some runs, but you have to like the control and the strike-outs. Hadn't heard of him before now, but if he has many more starts like his last one (7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 K) then some other people will be taking notice.

Sean Gleason: 33 IP, 1.36 ERA, 9:27, 3.17 FIP. I've never heard of the kid, but he is pitching really well. He posted a 3.36 FIP at Bluefield last year, so I'm surprised I haven't seen him mentioned before.

I've ignored some older players who are having good seasons, because it's doubtful that they'll be of much use to the Orioles in the future (with regard to contributing in the majors). Another thing to notice is the extreme bias towards pitchers. That is clearly where the strength of this system lies. That's why it irks me that almost everything I've heard has the O's taking lefty Brian Matusz with the number four pick in the draft. That's fine if there are no position players available there, but I've heard that they'd still pick Matusz even if toolsy shortstop Tim Beckham is available. That would be a mistake, I think. I know you're not supposed to draft for need early on, but Beckham has a high ceiling (enough to go #1 definitely) and that he plays a position the O's are weak at is just gravy. I don't think reaching for the other Beckham (Gordon) would be a great decision, even though he also plays short. He doesn't have Tim's tools, and so bypassing him for Matusz is OK with me. If the team thinks that they can sign Mark Teixeira (for example) then not getting one of the first basemen (like Justin Smoak) is fine also. Picking a catcher, even though there are a couple of really good ones, wouldn't make much sense either. More on the draft when it happens. Read more ...

Baby Birds

I haven't written about the O's recently, so I'll get back to that this evening. For now, let's take a look around the minors.

AAA pitching:

Hayden Penn - 24 IP, 25 H, 2 HR, 5 BB, 17 K, 4.88 ERA. He's been a bit unlucky, but a K:BB ratio of over 3 is nice to see.

Garrett Olson - 22 1/3 IP, 19 H, 1 HR, 7 BB, 24 HR, 1.61 ERA. I expect Olson to be in the majors sooner rather than later. If he can translate even part of that good K-rate to the majors, then he should be OK.

Radhames Liz - 14 2/3 IP, 21 H, 2 HR, 4 BB, 14 K, 7.98 ERA. Liz has been unlucky too, but the solid K-rate and (relatively) low walk-rate should translate into success if he keeps them up.

All three guys should see time for the O's sometime this year.

AA offense:

Nolan Reimold - 63 AB, 190 / 274 / 270, 1 HR, 8 BB, 13 K. I like the solid walk rate, but nothing else. The lack of power is especially worrying, but I expect him to pick it up soon, and be in the majors in September at the latest.

AA pitching:

David Hernandez - 20 IP, 17 H, 2 HR, 10 BB, 26 K, 2.70 ERA. He led the Carolina League in K's last year, and he's picking right up with that again. The walks are high, but not by way too much. David doesn't quite have the ceiling of some of the other O's pitching prospects, but he looks like he can be a solid major-leaguer.

Jason Berken - 16 IP, 16 H, 1 HR, 1 BB, 13 K, 2.81 ERA. Berken probably ranks below Hernandez, but his stats look really impressive thus far.

Chorye Spoone - 15 IP, 15 H, 1 HR, 9 BB, 13 K, 3.00 ERA. Spoone's been unlucky with balls in play, but his ground ball percentage is down to 57% this year. He had a "break-out" season last year in part because he got his walks under control - that trend needs to continue this year.

Chris Tillman - 11 1/3 IP, 6 H, 0 HR, 9 BB, 9 K, 3.18 ERA. Tillman hasn't started out well this year, with his ERA being kept that low by an unsustainable BABIP rate. He is making the jump to AA though, so I think he'll make the necessary adjustments.

A offense:

Matt Wieters - 45 AB, 422 / 518 / 756, 4 HR, 10 BB, 7 K. I know it's only A-ball, but Wieters is hitting so well that he actually may see time in the majors this year. A 1.274 OPS is awesome anywhere. Top prospect indeed.

A pitching:

Jake Arrieta - 19 2/3 IP, 10 H, 0 HR, 12 BB, 26 K, 2.75 ERA. The walk-rate is high and the hit-rate is low (lucky), but those strike-outs are what I'm looking at right now. Great draft pick.

Brandon Erbe - 16 2/3 IP, 14 H, 3 HR, 2 BB, 18 K, 3.78 ERA. He's gotten that K-rate up to where it was before, and that walk-rate is way down. If he can keep this two things up, then he should move back up people top prospect lists.

R pitching:

Tony Butler - 17 IP, 17 H, 2 HR, 2 BB, 12 K, 3.71 ERA. The problem with Butler was his control, but he's done well with that so far. It would be nice to see him dominate a bit more, but as the fourth piece in the Bedard trade, he looks pretty good.

The pitching prospects (well, many of them) are looking good and Wieters is raking in A-ball. Hopefully a top position prospect falls to the O's in the draft, because that's where the system is weakest. It's on the way up, though. Read more ...

More On Moore In The Minors

I would like to apologize for second guessing Dave Trembley and Andy MacPhail on their decision to call up Jim Johnson at the expense of Scott Moore. Moore is being given the chance to start at shortstop at AAA, which is not something what could reasonably be expected at this point in the majors. I forgot for a second that this team (while they're trying to win every game) aren't playing for this year, so if they are a slightly worse club with Fahey on the roster instead of Moore, then it's OK. If Moore can survive at short (he did play there in college before being moved to third) then he would be a very valuable utility player. How many guys can back up all over the infield (and maybe some left field too) while hitting .260/.340/.450 ? Not a lot, but Moore has the skills to do that, and it's good to see that he is being allowed to develop them. Read more ...

Not A Bad Start

Is it too early to start a Matt Wieters watch? The young catcher and the O's first round pick from last year went 2-3 with a pair of home runs yesterday and followed it up with a 1-2, 1 BB, 1 RBI game today in the first two official games of his professional career. It's very possible that the switch hitter, whose defense is already pretty solid despite his 6'5" frame, will see the majors as soon as September of this year. Wieters is starting at single-A Frederick, but may be fast-tracked through the minors, especially if the Orioles find a taker for Ramon Hernandez before the trade deadline.

The Keys are going to be a fun team to watch in the near future, as joining Wieters are hitting prospects Billy Rowell and Brandon Snyder, as well as pitchers Brandon Erbe, Jake Arrietta, Jacob Renshaw, and Brad Bergesen. Read more ...

Sickles On The O's

Prospect expert John Sickles did a quick interview with CamdenChat where they discussed 10 questions about the O's farm system. I agree with everything Sickles said except that the system is only slightly above average. I think that it's solidly above average, though that may just be a matter of semantics. There are so many pitching prospects with #3 type ceilings that I think they should be able to construct an entirely home-grown rotation pretty soon, even with the attrition rate for young pitchers. I was surprised to see Reimold starting in AA, but I think he'll see the majors some time this year.

He is very high on Matt Wieters:

"I imagine you will see Wieters late this year or by mid-season 2009 at the latest. He’s really good, the hype is for real. I have him at Number Seven on the hitting prospect list, but he could be Number One or Number Two a year from now once he establishes himself and other guys ahead of him graduate."

That surprises even me with how much Sickles likes him. Things are looking up for the Birds. Read more ...

I'll Be Watching

Alex Eisenberg published an article over at the HardballTimes about the pitching prospects to watch in 2008. The first guy on the list was the Orioles' very own Chorye Spoone.

Some things that he says:

"Spoone's arm action is his best mechanical quality." - There's a video showing his motion; Spoone's rocking those high socks.
However:

"The biggest problem area for Spoone appears to be his front-side mechanics. There are two issues here:

1. He doesn't do a good job of firming his glove up as his front shoulder opens, which is likely a major reason he has suffered from command problems throughout his minor league career.

2. He tucks his glove into his side at release instead of keeping it firm out in front and bringing his chest into his glove."

Luckily, these things are easier to correct than the arm action and should help his control and reduce his risk of injury.

To the numbers:

"What sets Spoone apart from pitchers with similar strikeout and walk rates is his excellent groundball percentage...
Digging a little deeper into Spoone's numbers, we can get an idea of the kind of ground balls that Spoone gave up last year:

2007, Frederick (A+)
268 GBs - 52 Hits vs. 216 Outs = .194 Batting Average Against on GBs

Now, is the BAA Spoone showed on GBs in 2007 just luck? You can definitely conclude a lot of it was luck, but Spoone did show the ability to get batters to ground out softly, and I do think that speaks to the quality of his stuff...

Looking at more definitive data, we can see the improvement that Spoone made from 2006 to 2007. His walk rate improved significantly even as he struck out more batters. And he was also much more successful against lefties"

This has me very excited to see what he'll do this year:

"Spoone ended the season on a tear with three straight complete games, including two in the playoffs (in the first of those, he was one out away from a no-hitter). In September, Spoone faced 91 batters and walked just one."

Now his stuff:

"Spoone's sinker sits in the mid-90s. His curveball is considered above-average, and his change-up has come a long way but still needs refining. In terms of make-up, Spoone is a smart pitcher with a bulldog mentality. He works hard and has shown the ability to make adjustments."

Sounds like a #2/3 starter to me, with a (small) chance to turn into a Brandon Webb type. I'm not counting on it, but it's not out of the realm of possibility if he can get the walks under control.
Their outlook:

"Spoone is a workhorse. He'll walk his share of batters, but if he can maintain a solid K rate to go along with the many ground balls he is going to give up, then there is a possibility that he can reach his upside as a No. 2 starter. His mentality and work ethic give him an even better chance of reaching that upside."

I'll take that. Read more ...

Farm System Ranking

BaseballProspectus has but out its ranking of farm systems going into 2008. #1 (and by a mile; maybe a couple of miles) are the Tampa Bay Rays - that's why people are so high on their potential. The Orioles have moved up from the #18 spot to #10 and there's a good chance that they'll move up to the top 5-6 by next year.

"10. Baltimore Orioles
Last Year's Ranking: 18
Why They're Up: They drafted the best college position player in Matt Wieters, and added a ton of talent in the Erik Bedard trade.
Strengths: Right-handers who throw hard; power prospects; just on his own, Wieters makes catching a strength.
Weaknesses: Athletic position players, especially in the middle infield and center field.
Outlook for 2009 Ranking: They could be up if third baseman Billy Rowell and right-hander Brandon Erbe can return to previous form."

If Adam Jones had gotten a few less at-bats in the majors last year (and was still considered a prospect) then the athletic position player in centerfield weakness would be gone. A trade for the Cubs' Ronny Cedeno and Eric Patterson (as I have proposed) would take care of the middle infield positions.

A perfectly reasonable line-up projection for 2010:
Eric Patterson (2B) (Cubs)
Matt Wieters (C)
Nick Markakis (RF)
Adam Jones (CF)
Nolan Reimold (LF)
Billy Rowell (3B)
Brandon Snyder (1B)
Mike Costanzo (DH) (Luke Scott could still be with the team. He's a better version of Mike and would hit 5th)
Ronny Cedeno (SS) (Cubs)

That has some potential - no real MVP candidates, but a solid line-up. It has a good balance of lefties (Patterson, Wieters (B), Markakis, Rowell, Costanzo) and rights (the rest + Wieters again), batting average (Wieters, Markakis, Snyder), OBP (Patterson, Weiters, Markakis, Reimold, Snyder, Costanzo), power (1-8, really as Patterson has some pop for a second baseman. Snyder may not have the usual HR totals for 1B, but it should be better than Millar), and speed (Patterson, Markakis, Jones, Cedeno).

And talk about rotation options (ranked very roughly in order):
Chris Tillman
Adam Loewen
Chorye Spoone
Radhames Liz
Sean Gallagher (Cubs)
Jake Arrietta
Brandon Erbe
Peadro Beato
Garrett Olson
Tony Butler
Hayden Penn
Troy Patton
Matt Albers
David Hernandez
Tim Bascom
Zach Britton
Brad Bergesen
Jake Renshaw
Jason Berken

It might not have a true ace, but there aren't very many of those around (definitely less than 30). I think that you could put a rotation together from these guys this year and it wouldn't be the worst in baseball by much (if at all). That's 19 guys and the O's only need 5 (at most). There are a lot of guys who top out as #3 starters, but having a #3 type at #2 is offset by having #3 types at 4 and 5 - it gives the team a good chance to win every day.

And what a power bullpen:
James Hoey (high-end velocity: 97mph+)
Bob McCrory (97+)
Kam Mickolio (95+ with sink)
Dennis Sarfate (96+)

That's just the guys who are relief pitchers now. If Liz (97+) moves to the pen (and there's a pretty good chance of that) along with possibly Erbe (98+) (his motion may make him more effective in short appearances) and Butler (95+ as a reliever) (if he has no place in the rotation) then that's 7 guys coming in after the starters who can all throw 95+. Do I think such a team would be the best in the league, or even the division? No, but it's a hell of a start.

I'll do a write-up of some of the team's top prospects at some point in the future. Read more ...