Sunday, July 27, 2008

Top 5 System By Year's End?

The O's recent struggles just serve to remind us that this is a rebuilding year. With that in mind, lets take another look around the farm.


Mike Costanzo: 24 year-old 3B, 262 / 333 / 402, 10 HR, 124:38 K to walk ratio
Norfolk isn't the easiest park to hit in, but he's not showing much power on the road either. If he had been able to handle catching then his line would be OK. As it is, those strike-outs would be a lot easier to handle if it came with some power.

Scott Moore: 24 year-old 3B, 248 / 317 / 409, 7 HR, 66:22 K to BB
He actually is hitting better on the road (255 / 324 / 459), but it's still not great. Still has a chance to turn into a solid utility guy.

Hayden Penn: 23 year-old RHP, 5.17 ERA, 5.07 FIP, 10.1 H per 9 IP, 5.9 K/9 3.4 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9
His walks are up and his K's are down. Penn is still young, but he's running out of time to earn a place in the O's rotation.


Matt Wieters: 22 year-old catcher, 333 / 423 / 567, 5 HR, 15:14 K to BB since his promotion from A-Ball where he hit 345 / 446 / 576.
Right now, Wieters could probably outhit Quiroz and catch better than Ramon, and maybe vice versa. He's one of the top 5 prospects in all of baseball.

Nolan Reimold: 24 year-old OF, 292 / 363 / 504, 18 HR, 55:44 K to BB
He's hitting for average and power, and showing a good eye at the plate. May end up as a top 100 prospect by the end of the year, and should get at shot at LF in Baltimore before long.

David Hernandez: 23 year-old RHP, 2.63 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 6.9 H/9, 10.6 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9
He's having another very good year, and may end up on some prospect lists soon. His low HR rate won't likely continue with as many flyballs as he allows, but #3 starter upside is there.

Bradley Bergesen: 22 year-old RHP, 2.91 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 8.6 H/9, 4.6 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9
A groundball pitcher with very good control, Bergesen will need to up that strike-out rate at least a little to be more than a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Chris Tillman: 20 year-old RHP, 3.44 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 7.8 H/9, 9.2 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9
Still walking a few too many, but he's very young for his level. Top 20, maybe even top 10, prospect.

Jason Berken: 24 year-old RHP, 3.51 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 9.1 H/9, 7.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9
He's old for his level, put pitching quite well. Another interesting back-of-the-rotation arm.

Chorye Spoone: 22 year-old RHP, 4.57 ERA, 4.97 FIP, 8.7 H/9, 7.0 K/9, 5.9 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9
He's still getting the groundball, but everything else has regressed. He's been injured though, so hopefully things will get better in the second half. Those walks definitely have to go down, but I'm still confident about his long-term prospects.


Brandon Snyder: 21 year-old 1B, 294 / 332 / 468, 9 HR, 60:18 K to BB
He's hitting pretty well again for the first time in 3 years, but the walks are still low. Maybe not an impact prospect anymore, but he still has time.

Billy Rowell: 19 year-old 3B, 239 / 313 / 356, 4 HR, 70:28 K to BB
Every time he gets promoted a level, he gets worse. He's still very young, but that will only work for so long before some actual production is required.

Jake Arrieta: 22 year-old RHP, 2.87 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 6.3 H/9, 9.6 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9
He's moving up some prospect lists pretty quickly, though it would be nice to see fewer free-passes. I'm excited to see how he does against stiffer competition in the Olympics.

Pedro Beato: 21 year-old RHP, 4.48 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 10.0 H/9, 4.8 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9
More groundballs and fewer walks is good, but his K rate is plummeting.

Brandon Erbe: 20 year-old RHP, 4.55 ERA, 4.46 FIP, 8.5 H/9, 10.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.5 HR/9
He's giving up a lot of home runs, but everything else looks pretty good. He's almost cut his walk rate in half, and is back on the prospect radar.

Tyler Kolodny: 20 year-old 3B, 270 / 391 / 426, 3 HR, 32:16 K to walk
It's not a big sample, but it's hard to dislike that OBP. Maybe not a star in the making, but someone to keep an eye on.

Ryan Adams: 21 year-old 2B, 294 / 351 / 428, 7 HR, 72:25 K to BB
Not a base-stealer (4 for 9) but he's producing pretty well. I'd like to see him against some more advanced competition.

Zach Britton: 20 year-old LHP, 2.82 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 7.3 H/9, 6.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9
Has improved both his strike-out and walk rates, and is still getting a ton of groundballs.

Luis Noel: 20 year-old RHP, 3.72 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 7.8 H/9, 7.9 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9
I know next to nothing about him, but those numbers aren't bad.

Tony Butler: 20 year-old LHP, 4.42 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 9.7 H/9, 7.2 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9
So much for control problems. I'm excited to see what he can do at a higher level, despite the so-so ERA.

The system pretty much shakes out as Reimold, Wieters, and a bunch of pitchers. It has come a long way in the last couple of years though, and should look even better once the draft picks get some significant playing time.

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