Mid-Season Review

The All-Star break is a little passed the half-way point of the season, but it provides for a nice opportunity to look back at the pre-season projections/predictions.

First the team records: Projected Wins (win pct * 162) - My Predicted Wins - Whether the Over/Under call was right

NYY - 85 - 95 - I said Over 93.5; Wrong - they've been improving, but have actually been outscored by the Orioles - they're 3rd-order projected record (calculates equivalent runs scored and allowed (like EqA) and adjusts for strength of schedule) is up to 89 so they still may make a run at this thing

BOS - 95 - 94 - Under 94.5; Wrong - best team in baseball with projected 104 3rd-order wins

TOR - 80 - 83 - Under 85; Correct - may end up wrong, as they've played better than their record indicates based on RS/RA (85 wins) and Eq.Adj. RS/RA (90 wins)

TBR - 95 - 79 - Over 73; Correct - second best team in baseball with projected 98 3rd-order wins

BAL - 78 - 72 - Over 66; Correct - have to go just 22-47 (play like a 52-win team) to seal this one; I'm pretty confident

CLE - 71 - 90 - Under 90.5; Correct - they've been unlucky (82 wins based on RS/RA) but the team has Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, and not a whole lot else left to contend this year - that's why it was a good move to trade CC Sabathia

DET - 81 - 89 - Under 94.5; Correct - improving, but still a mid-level team

CHW - 93 - 75 - Under 77.5; Wrong - they haven't been lucky; they're riding one of the better run-prevention units in the league to a strong record, just like they did when they won the World Series

MIN - 90 - 74 - Over 73; Correct - 78 win team by Eq.Adj. RS/RA, but a pitching staff that never walks guys goes a long way towards helping a team stay competitive

KCR - 73 - 72 - Under 72.5; Wrong - they're playing at about their talent level (sorry - Brian Bannister too)

LAA - 97 - 89 - Under 92.5; Wrong - quite lucky based on RS/RA (85 wins) and Eq.Adj. RS/RA (82), but their actual record makes it hard for the A's to really go for it this year

OAK - 87 - 77 - Over 73.5; Correct - the best team in the AL West should be on pace to win 94 games in a "rebuilding" year

SEA - 63 - 77 - Under 84.5; Correct - must go 48-19 (116 win pace) to make this one wrong; must go 58-9 (140 win pace) to get to the 95 wins some predicted - they have been a bit unlucky though

TEX - 84 - 73 - Under 74.5; Wrong - who expected Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton, and Milton Bradley to be three of the four best hitters in the AL at this point? They'll have to keep it up, as the pitching staff has given up easily the most runs in baseball

NYM - 87 - 93 - Under 93.5; Correct - don't look now, but the Mets are just a half-game out

ATL - 77 - 88 - Over 85.5; Wrong - RS/RA (88 wins) and Eq.Adj. RS/RA (87 wins) agree with me - poor Braves

PHI - 88 - 85 - Under 88.5; Correct - they're better than I anticipated, mostly on the pitching side (4th fewest runs allowed in the NL)

FLA - 85 - 73 - Over 68.5; Correct - best hitting middle-infield combo in baseball

WSH - 61 - 71 - Under 71.5; Correct - wow have they been bad; they've even been a bit lucky

CHC - 97 - 89 - Over 87.5; Correct - the class of the NL at this point

MIL - 89 - 87 - Over 84; Correct - adding Sabathia may make them the second best team in the league

CIN - 78 - 77 - Under 78.5; Correct - they've been lucky (should have about 72 wins) and things aren't looking up with Harang on the shelf

STL - 89 - 73 - Under 77; Wrong - it's been over three months and I still don't get it

HOU - 75 - 73 - Under 74.5; Wrong - it's gotten much closer though, as the team has really fallen off; are some of their veterans on the block? (probably not, but they should be)

PIT - 76 - 71 - Over 68.5; Correct - the team's being led by a great outfield, but the 3rd-order wins paints a different picture (should be on pace for 62)

ARI - 80 - 86 - Over 87.5; Wrong - boy have they ever played down to their competition; I'm pretty sure they'll still win the division (and get over .500) but this is kind of embarrassing

LAD - 78 - 86 - Under 87; Correct - same things here; the team has too much talent to be this bad

SDP - 63 - 85 - Under 84; Correct - hey, at least they have Adrian Gonzalez (22 HR already, playing half his games in that giant park)

COL - 66 - 83 - Under 83.5; Correct - it'll take an even more impressive run this year to get them back to the play-offs, even in the NL "Worst" (you see what I did there? - that's funny stuff)

SFG - 68 - 71 - Under 71.5; Correct - Tim Lincecum is awesome... just really, really awesome - he may win 20 games for a 90+ loss team

That's 20 out of 30 Over/Under picks that are correct so far, with an average difference between my predicted record and the projected finish of about 9 games (it was 10 at the one-quarter point, and is only about 7 off when using RS/RA or Eq.Adj. RS/RA instead of the actual records). Ironically, for the two teams I was most right about record-wise (Boston and KC), I've been wrong about the O/U. Crazy game. Of the 10 incorrect picks, I think only Boston, the Angels, and maybe Arizona have a good chance to end up right. The Phillies and Reds may switch the other way. In any case, I think it looks pretty good at this point.

Now, the O's:
(Pre-season projected line, actual line, predicted line from the Hardball Times based on batted-ball data - PrOPS, and the like)

C: Ramon Hernandez
Proj: 267 / 333 / 437
Act: 238 / 285 / 379
Pr: 296 / 338 / 455
Razor's not been playing that well, but he has been unlucky.

1B: Kevin Millar
Proj: 263 / 355 / 416
Act: 239 / 339 / 391
Pr: 277 / 370 / 458
Millar's has been fairly productive anyway (not really for a 1B though), but he's been unlucky also.

2B: Brian Roberts
Proj: 285 / 370 / 430
Act: 296 / 375 / 489
Pr: 288 / 369 / 424
He's having a great year, but his predicted stats are right in line with where they were expected to be.

3B: Melvin Mora
Proj: 268 / 336 / 402
Act: 233 / 301 / 387
Pr: 284 / 347 / 455
It looks like Mora's collapsed, but he's actually hitting the ball pretty well; more bad luck for the infield.

SS: Luis Hernandez
Proj: 245 / 279 / 309
Act: 241 / 295 / 253
Pr: 271 / 326 / 335
If he had been able to play defense well enough to keep his job, then the predicted line would look OK.

LF: Luke Scott
Proj: 269 / 367 / 511
Act: 254 / 334 / 474
Pr: 267 / 346 / 488
Luke's been a mild disappointment for me, but he's still been a productive player.

CF: Adam Jones
Proj: 269 / 327 / 464
Act: 281 / 324 / 408
Pr: 249 / 297 / 362
Jones' lack of power is very disconcerting for me, as it was the only thing I thought he'd do well on offense. He's been pretty lucky, so I'm afraid that his stats will actually get worse after the break.

RF: Nick Markakis
Proj: 297 / 365 / 500
Act: 299 / 401 / 492
Pr: 295 / 395 / 488
I think I went a little overboard with the power, but the extra 35 points of OBP is a very welcome trade-off. Sign the man!

DH: Aubrey Huff
Proj: 273 / 336 / 447
Act: 284 / 349 / 526
Pr: 290 / 353 / 512
Nobody is boo'ing Huff now, eh? Will he still improve in the second half?

C: Guillermo Quiroz
Proj: 237 / 288 / 344
Act: 203 / 276 / 304
Pr: 238 / 305 / 375
A step up from the Paul Bako's of the world. And cheaper, too.

OF: Jay Payton
Proj: 273 / 319 / 403
Act: 243 / 283 / 370
Pr: 264 / 300 / 427
He's actually been worse than even I expected. Maybe they should stop playing him against righties when they can help it.

UTIL: Brandon Fahey
Proj: 246 / 304 / 309
Act: 230 / 254 / 344
Pr: 271 / 293 / 340
Fahey showing more power than could have reasonably been expected. You know the shortstop situation is bad when a .344 SLG has you excited.

Total (includes others): Projected; 269 / 337 / 427, 789 runs, 4.9 runs / game.
Actual; 258 / 327 / 421, 439 runs (764 pace), 4.7 runs / game.

The average AL line has dropped from 271 / 338 / 423 to 264 / 332 / 411 so, relatively speaking, the Orioles offense is about where I thought they would be.
I said their BA would be 0.7% worse than league average, and it's been 2.3% worse (largely due to poor luck for the infielders not named "Roberts"); their projected OBP was 0.3% worse than average, and its 1.5% worse; and their projected SLG was 1.4% better than average, and it's been 2.4% better (thanks, Aubrey). Projected OPS: 0.7% above the league average - Actual OPS: 0.7% above the league average. Not bad, if I do say so myself. Now if only they can get their pitching straightened out...