Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Fallen Brave
John Smoltz will not be filling the role of the Braves' closer this year. He will be undergoing season (and maybe career) ending shoulder surgery. That is a big hit for Atlanta, even beyond having already lost him as a starter. While this is sad news, it opens up the possibility that six years from now, we may see the induction of the Big Three - Smoltz, Greg Maddux, and Tom Glavine - into the Hall of Fame together. How awesome would that be? Of course Smoltzy could still come back, and Maddux could certainly pitch until he doesn't want to anymore (I really think he could still get hitters out at age 50). There will be some that don't think Glavine or Smoltz should get in on the first ballot (with the lefty getting the benefit of the doubt because of the 300 wins), I think it would be amazing to see. Hey, if Griffey Jr. and Frank Thomas retire after this year too, then that could be one of the best induction classes ever. Then if Bonds plays some this year before hanging them up... jeez. I respect that Smoltz is going to try to come back - at age 41 it will be extremely difficult, but he still loves the game and thinks he can contribute, and I wish him luck.
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Tuesday, June 3, 2008
O's-Twins, Thin Liz Not Wild One Tonight
Radhames Liz makes his first start of the season against aptly-named soft-tosser Kevin Slowey. He's not quite Jamie Moyer, but his 88-90 is pretty far away from Liz's 95-97.
After getting ahead 1-2, Slowey tries to get Nick to chase a high fastball. Markakis takes it, and then lines the next pitch (an off-speed offering) for a single. Huff hits the ball to deep center, but Carlos Gomez catches it just shy of the warning track. O's don't score in the first.
Good start for Liz, getting ahead of Gomez 0-2 before Carlos lines out to a sliding Markakis in right. The ump seems to have a wide zone, which should be a benefit to Rady (Radhy? Rad-Ham? OK, just Liz then). Alexi Casilla pops out on the second pitch. Two down for Joe Mauer, who inherited Brady Anderson's role of "best sideburns guy". Liz throw a nice slider over for a strike to him, but then can't find the plate with the fastball and walks him. Then he starts Morneau with two fastballs high. After Ramon was a talk with him, Liz settles down and ends up striking Morneau out swinging on a good slider (change-up? It looked like a slider to me, but Gameday has it as a change - whatever it was, it was good) down and in.
MILL-AH, as the say in Boston, gives the O's a 1-0 lead. Kevin's policy on curveballs is "you hang 'em, we'll bang 'em". (I'm sorry for that, but it's what popped into my head.) The Metrodome is not a homer friendly stadium, and that's Millar's first there in his career. Luke Scott hits a grounder up the middle that shortstop Brendan Harris dives to get, but Luke beat the throw to first. Jason Bartlett (traded to TBR for Harris & others) would have made that play. Razor keeps the hits coming, going with a fastball on the outside corner into right for a double. Two on with none out for yesterday's hero, Adam Jones. A flyball to center scores Scott, but Ramon gets caught between second and third trying to tag. More bad baserunning from the O's may cost them a run here. Bynum flies out to end the inning.
[While I have a minute here, I'd like to mention both my extreme sadness and my extreme happiness at the designation of The Pelican, Luis Hernandez, for assignment. If nobody claims him (and really, who would?) he will report to Norfolk. I'm sad that I won't have the opportunity to talk about the Pelican anymore (probably), but he has absolutely no place on this team with Cintron and Bynum already present and superior options. Neither guy is a major leaguer, but they are both AAA guys, where Luis is a AA guy. Fly free, Pelican, fly free.]
Liz can at least field his position OK, snagging a Cuddyer grounder and throwing him out at first. Three-up-three down go the Twins. Liz is still missing high a lot - I'm going to try to see if I can pick up why in his motion. Keep in mind that I am a horrible scout, regardless of how many times I see someone else do a break-down of a player.
1-2-3 for Slowey in the third.
1-2-3 for Liz in the third. Including a strike-out of Gomez. Ha - take that Slowey.
Touche, Slowey. Huff strikes out looking at the tailing "Maddux" fastball on the inside corner. Jeez, maybe I shouldn't laugh at the opposition anymore. Millar goes down swinging. He even outfields Liz, jumping to get a come-backer of the bat of Scott, and throwing him out.
"I'll see your inning, and raise you a three-pitch K of Casilla," says Liz. Morneau singles in the inning, but is left stranded. It was very good for Liz to have his first start against a generally free-swinging (and not very good) offense.
Adam Jones falls behind 0-2, fouls of a few pitches, and then takes a ball way down and away to center for a single. Then he gets himself into scoring position with one out by stealing second. Bynum flies out to center, and Jones feints going to third. Carlos Gomez has a cannon out there - maybe better than Jones'. Brain Roberts hits a high flyball to right, just over the glove of a jumping Cuddyer and off the baggy. Jones scores, and Brian goes into third with a triple. Nick smokes one, but it's right to Delmon Young in left. This Twins outfield is one of the best collection of throwing-arms around. Inning over, but the O's take a 3-0 lead.
Another perfect inning for Liz, including a looking K of Young. He threw a 95 mph fastball on the outside black.
Jeremy Guthrie is jealous, as Melvin Mora hits a solo homer to make it 4-0. That's it for the O's, but Liz is making four runs stand-up really well so far. This offense isn't particularly good, but they are showing some solid pop so far this year (4th in the AL in HR).
Nick Markakis makes a nice running catch in foul territory before being caught by George Sherrill in the O's bullpen area. Gomez lines a ground-rule double to deep left-center. Casilla follows it with a regular double, and there goes the shutout. Mauer doubles just inside the bag at first to make it 4-2. That'll end Liz's night, as Matt Albers will be coming in. While his control was a bit shaky, Liz pitched pretty well (5.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 4 K). I was especially encouraged by his ability to throw his off-speed stuff over. I think that with some work with Rick Kranitz, he should be able to improve his fastball command and become an effective starter. My earlier fears of him having to be relegated to the pen have been calmed a bit. Albers does his job, getting Morneau to pop-out and Cuddyer to K swinging.
Razor takes new pitcher Juan Rincon off the baggy in right for a double. A wild pitch gets Ramon to third with no outs. Jones fouls a pitch off his foot and goes to the ground. He gets up and promptly lines the next pitch up the middle for a single. 5-2 O's, but Adam is limping around at first. That's it for Rincon, as Craig Breslow comes in. He throws his own wild pitch, allowing Jones to get to second. Bynum drops down a "sac" bunt, but beats it out for a hit. Runners on the corners with no outs. Roberts flies out to center, but Gomez's strong throw keep Jones at third. Breslow picks Bynum off of first, gets in a run=down, avoids a tag, but eventually gets caught, all without Jones getting a chance to score. Now it'll take a hit from Nick to bring Adam in - or another wild pitch. He hits it hard to center, but Gomez is there. All that and they only get the one run.
Jason Kudel works a lead-off walk against Albers, who actually gets to stay in this game. He comes back to get Young swinging with a sinker boring in on his hands. Mike Lamb draws a four pitch walk. This pattern is OK, as he'll get the third K with the bases loaded but none in. Nope. Harris singles to center to make it 5-2. Gomez goes up swinging and lines the second pitch to Scott. Casilla grounds out to first to end the rally. Now Walker can pitch to Mauer and Morneau in the eighth, with maybe Bradford coming in for Cuddyer.
With two outs, Huff singles to center and then Scott beats out a slow roller to third. Breslow is out with Ramon coming up. Jesse Crain gets him to pop out.
It will be JJ instead of Walker despite the lefties. Mauer singles, but Johnson comes back to get Morneau swinging. Kubel draws a two-out walk, to put the tying run on for Delmon Young. JJ gets him to flyout to short center to end the inning.
Jones hits it into the left-center gap, but Young runs it down. Roberts hits a two-out double but is left stranded. It's George Sherrill time in the ninth.
Pop-up to first - one out. Slider bending over the plate for strike three - two out. Fly ball to right - three out. Thanks, George, for just getting it over with quickly.
The O's outhit the Twins 13 to 6, and get the 5-3 win. I'm very happy with what I saw all around. Liz looked (relatively) good, and the offense was (relatively) impressive, with everyone but Huff getting a hit and several balls being hit very hard. The team is back to one game below .500 at 28-29, and have a good chance to get even with Daniel Cabrera going tomorrow. Read more ...
After getting ahead 1-2, Slowey tries to get Nick to chase a high fastball. Markakis takes it, and then lines the next pitch (an off-speed offering) for a single. Huff hits the ball to deep center, but Carlos Gomez catches it just shy of the warning track. O's don't score in the first.
Good start for Liz, getting ahead of Gomez 0-2 before Carlos lines out to a sliding Markakis in right. The ump seems to have a wide zone, which should be a benefit to Rady (Radhy? Rad-Ham? OK, just Liz then). Alexi Casilla pops out on the second pitch. Two down for Joe Mauer, who inherited Brady Anderson's role of "best sideburns guy". Liz throw a nice slider over for a strike to him, but then can't find the plate with the fastball and walks him. Then he starts Morneau with two fastballs high. After Ramon was a talk with him, Liz settles down and ends up striking Morneau out swinging on a good slider (change-up? It looked like a slider to me, but Gameday has it as a change - whatever it was, it was good) down and in.
MILL-AH, as the say in Boston, gives the O's a 1-0 lead. Kevin's policy on curveballs is "you hang 'em, we'll bang 'em". (I'm sorry for that, but it's what popped into my head.) The Metrodome is not a homer friendly stadium, and that's Millar's first there in his career. Luke Scott hits a grounder up the middle that shortstop Brendan Harris dives to get, but Luke beat the throw to first. Jason Bartlett (traded to TBR for Harris & others) would have made that play. Razor keeps the hits coming, going with a fastball on the outside corner into right for a double. Two on with none out for yesterday's hero, Adam Jones. A flyball to center scores Scott, but Ramon gets caught between second and third trying to tag. More bad baserunning from the O's may cost them a run here. Bynum flies out to end the inning.
[While I have a minute here, I'd like to mention both my extreme sadness and my extreme happiness at the designation of The Pelican, Luis Hernandez, for assignment. If nobody claims him (and really, who would?) he will report to Norfolk. I'm sad that I won't have the opportunity to talk about the Pelican anymore (probably), but he has absolutely no place on this team with Cintron and Bynum already present and superior options. Neither guy is a major leaguer, but they are both AAA guys, where Luis is a AA guy. Fly free, Pelican, fly free.]
Liz can at least field his position OK, snagging a Cuddyer grounder and throwing him out at first. Three-up-three down go the Twins. Liz is still missing high a lot - I'm going to try to see if I can pick up why in his motion. Keep in mind that I am a horrible scout, regardless of how many times I see someone else do a break-down of a player.
1-2-3 for Slowey in the third.
1-2-3 for Liz in the third. Including a strike-out of Gomez. Ha - take that Slowey.
Touche, Slowey. Huff strikes out looking at the tailing "Maddux" fastball on the inside corner. Jeez, maybe I shouldn't laugh at the opposition anymore. Millar goes down swinging. He even outfields Liz, jumping to get a come-backer of the bat of Scott, and throwing him out.
"I'll see your inning, and raise you a three-pitch K of Casilla," says Liz. Morneau singles in the inning, but is left stranded. It was very good for Liz to have his first start against a generally free-swinging (and not very good) offense.
Adam Jones falls behind 0-2, fouls of a few pitches, and then takes a ball way down and away to center for a single. Then he gets himself into scoring position with one out by stealing second. Bynum flies out to center, and Jones feints going to third. Carlos Gomez has a cannon out there - maybe better than Jones'. Brain Roberts hits a high flyball to right, just over the glove of a jumping Cuddyer and off the baggy. Jones scores, and Brian goes into third with a triple. Nick smokes one, but it's right to Delmon Young in left. This Twins outfield is one of the best collection of throwing-arms around. Inning over, but the O's take a 3-0 lead.
Another perfect inning for Liz, including a looking K of Young. He threw a 95 mph fastball on the outside black.
Jeremy Guthrie is jealous, as Melvin Mora hits a solo homer to make it 4-0. That's it for the O's, but Liz is making four runs stand-up really well so far. This offense isn't particularly good, but they are showing some solid pop so far this year (4th in the AL in HR).
Nick Markakis makes a nice running catch in foul territory before being caught by George Sherrill in the O's bullpen area. Gomez lines a ground-rule double to deep left-center. Casilla follows it with a regular double, and there goes the shutout. Mauer doubles just inside the bag at first to make it 4-2. That'll end Liz's night, as Matt Albers will be coming in. While his control was a bit shaky, Liz pitched pretty well (5.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 4 K). I was especially encouraged by his ability to throw his off-speed stuff over. I think that with some work with Rick Kranitz, he should be able to improve his fastball command and become an effective starter. My earlier fears of him having to be relegated to the pen have been calmed a bit. Albers does his job, getting Morneau to pop-out and Cuddyer to K swinging.
Razor takes new pitcher Juan Rincon off the baggy in right for a double. A wild pitch gets Ramon to third with no outs. Jones fouls a pitch off his foot and goes to the ground. He gets up and promptly lines the next pitch up the middle for a single. 5-2 O's, but Adam is limping around at first. That's it for Rincon, as Craig Breslow comes in. He throws his own wild pitch, allowing Jones to get to second. Bynum drops down a "sac" bunt, but beats it out for a hit. Runners on the corners with no outs. Roberts flies out to center, but Gomez's strong throw keep Jones at third. Breslow picks Bynum off of first, gets in a run=down, avoids a tag, but eventually gets caught, all without Jones getting a chance to score. Now it'll take a hit from Nick to bring Adam in - or another wild pitch. He hits it hard to center, but Gomez is there. All that and they only get the one run.
Jason Kudel works a lead-off walk against Albers, who actually gets to stay in this game. He comes back to get Young swinging with a sinker boring in on his hands. Mike Lamb draws a four pitch walk. This pattern is OK, as he'll get the third K with the bases loaded but none in. Nope. Harris singles to center to make it 5-2. Gomez goes up swinging and lines the second pitch to Scott. Casilla grounds out to first to end the rally. Now Walker can pitch to Mauer and Morneau in the eighth, with maybe Bradford coming in for Cuddyer.
With two outs, Huff singles to center and then Scott beats out a slow roller to third. Breslow is out with Ramon coming up. Jesse Crain gets him to pop out.
It will be JJ instead of Walker despite the lefties. Mauer singles, but Johnson comes back to get Morneau swinging. Kubel draws a two-out walk, to put the tying run on for Delmon Young. JJ gets him to flyout to short center to end the inning.
Jones hits it into the left-center gap, but Young runs it down. Roberts hits a two-out double but is left stranded. It's George Sherrill time in the ninth.
Pop-up to first - one out. Slider bending over the plate for strike three - two out. Fly ball to right - three out. Thanks, George, for just getting it over with quickly.
The O's outhit the Twins 13 to 6, and get the 5-3 win. I'm very happy with what I saw all around. Liz looked (relatively) good, and the offense was (relatively) impressive, with everyone but Huff getting a hit and several balls being hit very hard. The team is back to one game below .500 at 28-29, and have a good chance to get even with Daniel Cabrera going tomorrow. Read more ...
The Great Joba Experiment Of Ought Eight
You know who didn't have a good first start of the year today? Joba Chamberlain. 2.1 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 4 BB, 3 K, 62 pitches with only 32 for strikes. The now Joba-less bullpen decided that they missed their hard-throwing righty and gave up 7 runs out of sadness. The Yanks lost to the Jays 9-3. I wonder how many complaints there will be in the New York papers tomorrow?
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The Rule Four
With the draft coming up soon (Thursday) I figured I'd give my extremely informal opinions. I haven't researched the stats or done in-depth scouting of the players (like CamdenDepot), but that doesn't mean I can't throw in my two cents. There are rumors that the O's may target some high school player that isn't being talked about as a top pick, but I'm going to ignore those (unless that means Hosmer). There are really 6 guys that I think are at the top of this class, draft-wise: Pedro Alvarez (3B), Buster Posey (C), Tim Beckham (SS), Brian Matusz (SP), Aaron Crow (SP), Justin Smoak (1B), and Eric Hosmer (1B). Guys like Kyle Skipworth (C) and Gordon Beckham (SS) are also near there, but I think that the O's aren't seriously considering anyone outside of those six.
I guess I'll go through them one at a time.
Buster Posey: With Wieters in the system there is little reason to draft Posey from a need standpoint, but that is the wrong way to draft. He could obviously be shifted from behind the plate, but being a good defensive catcher makes up a large part of his value. As a second baseman, he would not be projected to go near the top of the first round. I wouldn't draft him at #4. Since his value is similar to other players, position breaks the tie.
Pedro Alvarez: It would be great if Alvarez dropped to the #4 spot, but I highly doubt that happens. The guy has a great swing and can really hit, and it seems that he may be able to stick at third. His bonus demands are reportedly high, but the O's have shown that they don't mind paying for elite talent (Wieters). He's the #1 player on my draft board.
Tim Beckham: Anyone drafting the junior Beckham is drafting for upside. He doesn't have the raw tools of some previous top picks (like Justin Upton) but if everything goes right you've got an All-Star shortstop on your hands who is average to above-average in all aspects of the game. If some sort of crazy scenario occurred in which both he and Alvarez were on the board, I would still pick Pedro. Beckham has the higher ceiling (based on position), but has less of a chance of reaching it. There's also the several year wait until he's ready, to consider. Still, a system devoid of middle-infield prospects could add a great one if the O's get lucky.
I fully expect those three to be the first guys off the board, in whatever order. For the O's purposes, it really doesn't make much of a difference. That would leave them with the following choices.
Brian Matusz: There are no Tim Lincecum's or Clayton Kershaws in this draft. Matusz is probably as good as it gets, as a fairly polished lefty with solid stuff. I've heard that there are issues with his mechanics, but they seem to be more of the "less than maximum efficiency" type, than the "this guy is going to need Tommy John surgery soon" type. Still, the O's system is stacked on the pitching side with projected #2/3 starters, and so adding another one (even a good one) doesn't really appeal to me. I wouldn't be against it, but I'm not really for it, if you know what I'm saying.
Aaron Crow: Here's where the "arm injury" mechanics come into play. He does a lot of things right, but a couple wrong, and that scares me. All pitching prospects come with injury risk, but if I'm picking this high in the draft I want someone who I don't have to sweat over so much. He was better stuff than Matusz, but worse command and less general polish. I wouldn't pick him over Posey (hey, he could always be the regular C, with Wieters backing him up once in a while and playing first otherwise) and thus I wouldn't pick him at all.
Justin Smoak: "Switch-hitting Justin Morneau with better defense" is how I first heard him described, and that has stuck with me. The problem with picking a first baseman high in the draft is that he really needs to be able to hit. There are no fall-back options. If Beckham doesn't hit as well as expected, he can still be a utility guy or a pinch runner or something. If a first baseman doesn't hit, then he won't see the majors. Not only that, he has to hit a lot better for the investment to be worthwhile. Still, Smoak seems like the kind of guy you would take that chance with. He is athletic enough to not be just a "slugger", while also being a slugger. Brandon Snyder isn't hitting and Billy Rowell, who may have to move to first in the future, is doing OK at third for now and is a lesser player. The only real concern is that first baseman are generally easy to find amongst the freely available talent (cough... Carlos Pena... cough). That means that "Justin Smoak" (well, not exactly, but a decent 1B) could be gotten for much less than the #4 pick in the draft and $8 million (or whatever he's asking for). Still, a 30+ HR hitter isn't on the O's roster right now (Nick is more 25+) and it would be nice to add a guy that can do that within a couple years. For me, it's a toss-up between Matusz and Smoak. Neither is the type of player you want to draft high (like a #1 starter or impact up-the-middle player); neither has a tremendously high ceiling (Smoak, I think, will top out as an above-average 1B, a "#2" if you will - much like Matusz); both guys have cool names (hey, all else being equal...). I lean slightly towards Smoak because of the players the O's already have. If I was picking for the Giants, I'd probably pick Smoak too. For the Tigers, I'd pick Matusz.
Eric Hosmer: I haven't heard much about Hosmer, other than that he has huge offensive potential, and huge bonus demands. As a high school first baseman, he has a higher ceiling than Smoak. That doesn't outweigh the increased risks for me though, and I would pick Smoak ahead of him without thinking twice. In the MinorLeagueBall mock draft, Hosmer was picked by the O's after Beckham, Alvarez, and Smoak were off the board. That is the only reason I covered him, and I could see the justifications for the pick in that scenario. I'm not desperate enough for a power bat that might not even sign to make that leap, though.
Either Matusz or Smoak will probably be holding up an Orioles uniform Thursday, and whichever Joe Jordan picks I'm OK with. He has definitely earned the benefit of the doubt. I wish I knew more about the guys that will be picked later, so that I could do a little shadow drafting. I still may, but everything I say should be taken with a grain of salt. I guess that'll make my comments more flavorful, or something. Read more ...
I guess I'll go through them one at a time.
Buster Posey: With Wieters in the system there is little reason to draft Posey from a need standpoint, but that is the wrong way to draft. He could obviously be shifted from behind the plate, but being a good defensive catcher makes up a large part of his value. As a second baseman, he would not be projected to go near the top of the first round. I wouldn't draft him at #4. Since his value is similar to other players, position breaks the tie.
Pedro Alvarez: It would be great if Alvarez dropped to the #4 spot, but I highly doubt that happens. The guy has a great swing and can really hit, and it seems that he may be able to stick at third. His bonus demands are reportedly high, but the O's have shown that they don't mind paying for elite talent (Wieters). He's the #1 player on my draft board.
Tim Beckham: Anyone drafting the junior Beckham is drafting for upside. He doesn't have the raw tools of some previous top picks (like Justin Upton) but if everything goes right you've got an All-Star shortstop on your hands who is average to above-average in all aspects of the game. If some sort of crazy scenario occurred in which both he and Alvarez were on the board, I would still pick Pedro. Beckham has the higher ceiling (based on position), but has less of a chance of reaching it. There's also the several year wait until he's ready, to consider. Still, a system devoid of middle-infield prospects could add a great one if the O's get lucky.
I fully expect those three to be the first guys off the board, in whatever order. For the O's purposes, it really doesn't make much of a difference. That would leave them with the following choices.
Brian Matusz: There are no Tim Lincecum's or Clayton Kershaws in this draft. Matusz is probably as good as it gets, as a fairly polished lefty with solid stuff. I've heard that there are issues with his mechanics, but they seem to be more of the "less than maximum efficiency" type, than the "this guy is going to need Tommy John surgery soon" type. Still, the O's system is stacked on the pitching side with projected #2/3 starters, and so adding another one (even a good one) doesn't really appeal to me. I wouldn't be against it, but I'm not really for it, if you know what I'm saying.
Aaron Crow: Here's where the "arm injury" mechanics come into play. He does a lot of things right, but a couple wrong, and that scares me. All pitching prospects come with injury risk, but if I'm picking this high in the draft I want someone who I don't have to sweat over so much. He was better stuff than Matusz, but worse command and less general polish. I wouldn't pick him over Posey (hey, he could always be the regular C, with Wieters backing him up once in a while and playing first otherwise) and thus I wouldn't pick him at all.
Justin Smoak: "Switch-hitting Justin Morneau with better defense" is how I first heard him described, and that has stuck with me. The problem with picking a first baseman high in the draft is that he really needs to be able to hit. There are no fall-back options. If Beckham doesn't hit as well as expected, he can still be a utility guy or a pinch runner or something. If a first baseman doesn't hit, then he won't see the majors. Not only that, he has to hit a lot better for the investment to be worthwhile. Still, Smoak seems like the kind of guy you would take that chance with. He is athletic enough to not be just a "slugger", while also being a slugger. Brandon Snyder isn't hitting and Billy Rowell, who may have to move to first in the future, is doing OK at third for now and is a lesser player. The only real concern is that first baseman are generally easy to find amongst the freely available talent (cough... Carlos Pena... cough). That means that "Justin Smoak" (well, not exactly, but a decent 1B) could be gotten for much less than the #4 pick in the draft and $8 million (or whatever he's asking for). Still, a 30+ HR hitter isn't on the O's roster right now (Nick is more 25+) and it would be nice to add a guy that can do that within a couple years. For me, it's a toss-up between Matusz and Smoak. Neither is the type of player you want to draft high (like a #1 starter or impact up-the-middle player); neither has a tremendously high ceiling (Smoak, I think, will top out as an above-average 1B, a "#2" if you will - much like Matusz); both guys have cool names (hey, all else being equal...). I lean slightly towards Smoak because of the players the O's already have. If I was picking for the Giants, I'd probably pick Smoak too. For the Tigers, I'd pick Matusz.
Eric Hosmer: I haven't heard much about Hosmer, other than that he has huge offensive potential, and huge bonus demands. As a high school first baseman, he has a higher ceiling than Smoak. That doesn't outweigh the increased risks for me though, and I would pick Smoak ahead of him without thinking twice. In the MinorLeagueBall mock draft, Hosmer was picked by the O's after Beckham, Alvarez, and Smoak were off the board. That is the only reason I covered him, and I could see the justifications for the pick in that scenario. I'm not desperate enough for a power bat that might not even sign to make that leap, though.
Either Matusz or Smoak will probably be holding up an Orioles uniform Thursday, and whichever Joe Jordan picks I'm OK with. He has definitely earned the benefit of the doubt. I wish I knew more about the guys that will be picked later, so that I could do a little shadow drafting. I still may, but everything I say should be taken with a grain of salt. I guess that'll make my comments more flavorful, or something. Read more ...
Injured Papi
Hey, remember when David Ortiz hurt his wrist on that Dennis Sarfate pitch? Now, I bet the Sox would have rather lost that game via forfeit instead of having to play it. Instead, they'll lose their slugging DH for at least a month, and possibly the rest of the season. I don't remember if this is exactly right (I'm writing this from memory and don't feel like taking 3 seconds to do a google search - ah, the freedom from responsibility of blogging) but I believe the sheath of the tendon is damaged, and that this type of injury can be quite serious long-term. It's the same kind of thing that turned Nomar from a future Hall of Famer into the guy taking Andy LaRoche's spot in LA. The Sox have a number of options at this point: they could use The Mayor (Sean Casey) as the DH; they could shift Manny to DH and play with a very good defensive outfield (Ellsbury, Crisp, and Drew), which is OK because they don't really need the extra offense; or they could see if there is some left-handed slugger with power and good plate discipline who's knees make it preferable that he DH "freely" available... you know, like Scott Hatteberg.
In any case, this might be the type of thing that actually allows the Rays to win this division. That is so crazy, I can't believe I just typed it. I picked Tampa Bay to finish under .500 (barely) because I couldn't bring myself to accept that they would have such a huge turnaround. Based on talent, I probably would have had to say 85 wins or so, and they still may beat that by a good bit. It's a shame that they still aren't getting much of a turnout for their games - if I lived down there I would go every chance I got. Read more ...
In any case, this might be the type of thing that actually allows the Rays to win this division. That is so crazy, I can't believe I just typed it. I picked Tampa Bay to finish under .500 (barely) because I couldn't bring myself to accept that they would have such a huge turnaround. Based on talent, I probably would have had to say 85 wins or so, and they still may beat that by a good bit. It's a shame that they still aren't getting much of a turnout for their games - if I lived down there I would go every chance I got. Read more ...
O's-Red Sox, Put Away Those Brooms
It was a usual Jeremy Guthrie start for about seven innings. He pitched well (6.1 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K) but the team didn't get him any run-support. The plated two in the fourth with RBI from Huff and Millar, but Guts gave it back on a Manny Ramirez homer (his third in as many days) in the sixth and a Kevin Cash RBI double in the seventh (to chase him from the game). Jamie Walker and Matt Albers played match-ups to keep Cash stranded. In the eighth, James Johnson came in and was not his typical effective self, giving up a run on two walks and two hits before getting a double play ball to end the inning. (That Albers only faced one batter was very confusing. Either leave him in for the eighth, or bring JJ in after Walker. I didn't see any point in handling it the way they did.)
With Okajima and Papelbon looming in the Boston pen, it looked like the Red Sox would be completing the sweep. It turned out to not be a good day for set-up men, however. Single-single-single-sac fly tied the game, and then with the bases loaded, Adam Jones finally put a good swing on the ball. His drive to deep left-field was just past the outstretched glove of Jacoby Ellsbury, and he cruised into second with a three RBI double. George Sherrill made things interesting in the ninth, striking out the first two batters he faced, before walking a pair to bring up Manny as the tying run. Ramirez put a scare into the O's faithful with a flyball to deep right-center, but it wasn't hit far enough and the O's got the come-from-behind win, 6-3. It's nice to leave town on a positive note, as the team heads out west for a series against the Twins to start a nine game roadtrip. Read more ...
With Okajima and Papelbon looming in the Boston pen, it looked like the Red Sox would be completing the sweep. It turned out to not be a good day for set-up men, however. Single-single-single-sac fly tied the game, and then with the bases loaded, Adam Jones finally put a good swing on the ball. His drive to deep left-field was just past the outstretched glove of Jacoby Ellsbury, and he cruised into second with a three RBI double. George Sherrill made things interesting in the ninth, striking out the first two batters he faced, before walking a pair to bring up Manny as the tying run. Ramirez put a scare into the O's faithful with a flyball to deep right-center, but it wasn't hit far enough and the O's got the come-from-behind win, 6-3. It's nice to leave town on a positive note, as the team heads out west for a series against the Twins to start a nine game roadtrip. Read more ...
Monday, June 2, 2008
He Must Have Interviewed Really Well
Example number 541,337 of someone in a position of authority within a major league baseball team saying something that doesn't make any sense.
"“That’s a good play,” Cooper said of Berkman’s decision to bunt with the third baseman playing him deep. “That’s a baseball player’s play. It’s a nice job. We need baserunners. If you hit a ball out of a ballpark, I call them rally-killers when you get down like that. We need to keep a rally going, and that was a nice play to me.”"Houston was down 5-1 at that point, and would go on to lose by that same score. I'm not saying it was a bad play by Berkman to take a single when presented with it, but I have to think that if given the choice he would have gladly accepted the home run. 5-3 and none on, or 5-1 and two on? Really, you want the latter? Is that your final answer (yaye pop culture references)? You know, I never understood why someone would prefer a single to a HR when his team was batting (so as to keep the rally going) but would intentionally walk an opposing batter for fear of him hitting a HR in the same type of situation. Shouldn't he prefer the "rally-killing" homer? This make sense to anyone else? Read more ...
Sunday, June 1, 2008
At Least OPS Is Easy To Spell
Sabermetrics isn't just becoming mainstream in baseball, it's becoming mainstream in general. A commenter at USSMariner left this:
"Hi, very infrequent commenter here (Isaac is my screen name). We’re liveblogging the spelling bee over at throwingthings.blogspot.com. I wouldn’t bother you with this except that 11-year-old Karen Laska of Wheeling, West Virginia just correctly spelled “sabermetrics” in the first oral round, thus outdoing the entirety of the Mariners front-office staff."mkd then left this dramatization of a mock spelling bee:
"Moderator: OK Billy, your word is “Sabermetric”That is funny stuff, and makes me thankful to have Andy MacPhail in the O's front office. He may not be Billy Beane or Mark Shapiro, but he's still a few steps above the Bavasi's and Sabean's of the world. Read more ...
Little Billy Bavasi: Sabermetric, c-h-e-m-i-s-t-r-y, Sabermetric
Moderator: No I’m sorry that is incorrect, please leave the stage- Johnny, the word is “Sabermetric”
Little Johnny MacLaren: Sabermetric, m-i-g-u-e-l-c-a-i-r-o, Sabermetric.
Moderator: No I’m sorry that is really really incorrect- Theo, the word is still “Sabermetric”
Little Theo Epstein: Sabermetric, t-w-o-w-o-r-l-d-s-e-r-i-e-s-r-i-n-g-s, Sabermetric.
Moderator: Congratulations! According to our judges that is an acceptable alternate spelling.
Little Theo Epstein: Hooray!
Mariner fans everywhere: Competency, p-a-u-l-d-e-p-o-d-e-s-t-a, Competency"
O's-Red Sox, Outclassed All Around
The Red Sox beat the O's in all aspects of the game today. Manny Ramirez, Mike Lowell, and JD Drew all homered as part of the nine run Boston attack. The O's scored just four runs on ten hits, with two coming on a Luke Scott homer. Brian Burres got knocked out early (4 IP, 12 H, 7 R, 1 BB, 2 K) and Steve Trachsel did just OK in relief (5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 0 K) but he did save the rest of the pen. On the other side, Bartolo Colon gave up all four runs, but pitched pretty well, going six innings and striking out five while walking two. The Sox even out-defensed the Birds; despite neither team making an error, the Orioles didn't look very good in the field, while Dustin Pedroia and Drew in particular made some fine defensive plays.
The loss drops the O's to 26-29, which if I'm not mistaken is the furthest under .500 they've been all year. Jeremy Guthrie will try to salvage one game of the series on Monday. Times seem tough in Birdland now, but this was always a team that had to get lucky to win 75 games. I'm going to try to keep that in mind. Read more ...
The loss drops the O's to 26-29, which if I'm not mistaken is the furthest under .500 they've been all year. Jeremy Guthrie will try to salvage one game of the series on Monday. Times seem tough in Birdland now, but this was always a team that had to get lucky to win 75 games. I'm going to try to keep that in mind. Read more ...
O's-Red Sox, MannyBeingManny
Garrett Olson will try to bring the O's back after the tough loss against the major's most recent no-hit pitcher, Jon Lester. A couple of years ago, it was Olson as the lefty most likely to have success in the majors.
Olson doesn't get off to a good start, walking Ellsbury on four pitches. Once again, an O's pitcher makes an errant pick-off throw, allowing Jacoby to go to second. Millar is good at picking the ball at first, but he doesn't handle those throws over from the pitcher very well. Ellsbury then steals third, as Ortiz goes down looking for the second out. Manny hits one deep to left, but Payton is there short of the warning track and makes the catch. Despite Jacoby's antics on the base-paths, the Sox don't score.
Nick, batting second today, line a grounder up the middle, but Pedroia makes a sliding catch and throws him out. The O's go down in order in the first.
Olson strikes Youkilis out on three pitches, getting him swinging at a breaking-ball down and in. Varitek doubles past a diving Jones in center - Adam wasn't really close to it, but I like the effort. Olson gets Crisp swinging to end it though. I find it interesting that Garrett has been able to maintain the solid strike-out rate he had in the minors (well, it's down from 9.25 to 7.04 per nine, but that's still above average) considering his general lack of "stuff". If he can get his walks down a little than he can be a viable #4 starter.
Millar draws a lead-off walk, and advances to second on a passed ball. You know that means that the ball rolled pretty far away from the catcher. Huff strikes out swinging at a breaking-ball. Ramon hits one hard (again - 23.5 line-drive %) and it gets through to left for a single. Millar is held at third, but that's OK since Jay Payton beats out an infield single to bring him in. The O's take the early lead, 1-0. Adam Jones grounds one sharply up the middle to score Razor and make it 2-0.
Cintron also hits a grounder, but his goes to Lowell at third who starts the inning-ending double play.
Olson gets his fourth K, again using that down and in breaking-ball to strike Lugo out swinging. Ellsbury is victim number five, going down looking at a fastball just off the outside corner. Boy, does Pedroia swing hard for a little guy. He gets a change-up down in the zone and rockets it out to left. 2-1, Orioles now. Then Ortiz send one out to center. Jones made an attempt at it, but it went just past his glove. That quickly, the game is tied. Garrett gets Manny to ground out to third to end the inning.
Markakis gets a gift double, as Manny can't get to a pop-up down the left-field line.
He is left stranded however.
Payton robs Mike Lowell of extra bases with a sliding grab in left. Youk grounds to Cintron at short, who's throw pulls Millar off the bag at first. That's the second O's error today. Red Sox can't take advantage though. Nice job by Olson to pick up his defense, though usually it works the other way around.
Huff gets a gift double, as Manny can't get to a pop-up down the left-field line. Huh... that sounds familiar. He is left stranded however. I think I see a pattern here.
Melvin flashing some leather, robbing Lugo of a hit with a diving stop and throw to first. Jim Palmer has made some interesting notes about Mora's throwing; that when he has time he thinks about the runner too much and sometimes makes weak throws, but when he dives to get a ball, he doesn't think and makes a strong throw. I've never noticed if that's true, but I will keep an eye on it now. Ellsbury draws his second walk of the day. Then he steals second just ahead of Razor's throw. And then third. That's 26 on the year for Jacoby. Olson is able to get Ortiz to end the inning.
Brian Roberts hits one out to left field to give the O's the 3-2 lead. Nick follows that up with his second double of the day, but this one was no cheapie - he lines it to the left-center gap. Millar draws a four-pitch walk to put a couple on with two outs. Huff works the count full, and then he walks. The bases are loaded for Ramon. With the way he has been going with runners in scoring position, I'm going to assume that he doesn't come through. Yup, he sure doesn't. He strikes out on three pitches. Way to go there Razor.
Lance Cormier is in, so we can close the book on Olson. He had trouble with back-to-back hitters, but was very impressive otherwise - 5 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 5 K. Against a good Boston line-up, that should be a confidence booster. Olson only threw 89 pitches, but I don't think it's horrible call to take him out. Unless Cormier gets bombed - then it's a bad idea. (Actually, with the bullpen being spent yesterday, I would have stretched Olson for another inning - he didn't have a very tough fifth.) After getting Manny, Lance hits Lowell with a pitch. A balk moves him to second, and then a Youk single puts runners on the corners. Varitek singles in front of Payton to tie the score at 3-3. Lugo bloops one into short right-field, but Roberts makes a leaping catch to end the inning.
David Aardsma, the guy listed first alphabetically in baseball history, sets the O's down in order.
Ellsbury is so fast. Instead of just walking and stealing second and third, he just saves some time and hits a triple to right-center. With the infield in, Jacoby can't score on Pedroia's grounder - one out. Jamie Walker will come in to face David Ortiz. Walker is able to retire him on a flyball to left, to Ellsbury comes in to score to give Boston the 4-3 lead. That's it for Jamie, as Chad Bradford will come in to face Manny. First pitch - home run. Manny Ramirez hits his 500th career home run, taking a middle-of-the-plate fastball to deep right-center (and then admiring it for a minute). It's really clear how many Sox fans there are, as there Yard is jumping with excitement. Congratulations to one of the best pure hitters in baseball history, but couldn't he have waited a couple of days? Bradford gets Lowell for the third out, but it's now 5-3 Red Sox. Chad almost never gives up the long-ball, so it's unexpected that he would be the one to surrender the homer.
Youkilis robs Nick of a hit with a nice diving play. Aardsma has another 1-2-3 inning.
Dennis Sarfate relieves Bradford now. He hits Youkilis with a 3-2 pitch. That's what you get for taking a hit away from Markakis. Varitek follows that with a single, with Youk going to third. Sarfate gets Crisp to ground into a double play, but that allows the runner to score to make it 6-3. The control problems continue, as eh walks Lugo. He gets Ellsbury to expand the zone, swinging and missing at a fastball outside for the K. Big hole to come back from tonight guys (though, to tell you the truth, I'm not feeling it).
Now Ramon gets a hit, with none on and two outs. That's all Okajima gives up in the inning, and we head to the ninth.
Pedroia hits a lead-off single, but Sarfate retires the next three batter. In doing so, he may have injured David Ortiz, who had to leave the game in the middle of an at bat after fouling off a fastball. [Ortiz is day-to-day with a wrist sprain.]
Adam Jones strikes out swinging against Jon Papelbon to start the ninth. Luke Scott, hitting for Cintron, singles through an infield shift to give the O's some life. Roberts walks, and Nick Markakis is coming up as the potential tying run. Papelbon throws two pitches way out of the zone to Nick. 2-0 count... oh. Oh man. Nick hits one up the middle, but the shortstop is there to catch it and toss to second to double-up Scott. That's it, game over. A little anti-climactic, I would say.
The O's lose 6-3, and end the month of May with a 26-28 record. It's not bad (and better than could reasonably have been expected) but it's still enough to put them in the cellar of the AL East. Someone really needs to break up this division - it's not fair that 3-4 of the best teams in the league play in it and only one or two can make the playoffs. Trade the Blue Jays for Seattle. If the O's played the M's 19 times a year then that would go a long way to helping them contend. The East keeps the Boston - New York thing, as well as the excitement of the young Rays team. The Blue Jays are in Canada anyway, so who cares what division they play in? (That last part was a joke - I don't want any angry Canadians attacking me with their hockey sticks or lumberjack axes or whatnot.) Read more ...
Olson doesn't get off to a good start, walking Ellsbury on four pitches. Once again, an O's pitcher makes an errant pick-off throw, allowing Jacoby to go to second. Millar is good at picking the ball at first, but he doesn't handle those throws over from the pitcher very well. Ellsbury then steals third, as Ortiz goes down looking for the second out. Manny hits one deep to left, but Payton is there short of the warning track and makes the catch. Despite Jacoby's antics on the base-paths, the Sox don't score.
Nick, batting second today, line a grounder up the middle, but Pedroia makes a sliding catch and throws him out. The O's go down in order in the first.
Olson strikes Youkilis out on three pitches, getting him swinging at a breaking-ball down and in. Varitek doubles past a diving Jones in center - Adam wasn't really close to it, but I like the effort. Olson gets Crisp swinging to end it though. I find it interesting that Garrett has been able to maintain the solid strike-out rate he had in the minors (well, it's down from 9.25 to 7.04 per nine, but that's still above average) considering his general lack of "stuff". If he can get his walks down a little than he can be a viable #4 starter.
Millar draws a lead-off walk, and advances to second on a passed ball. You know that means that the ball rolled pretty far away from the catcher. Huff strikes out swinging at a breaking-ball. Ramon hits one hard (again - 23.5 line-drive %) and it gets through to left for a single. Millar is held at third, but that's OK since Jay Payton beats out an infield single to bring him in. The O's take the early lead, 1-0. Adam Jones grounds one sharply up the middle to score Razor and make it 2-0.
Cintron also hits a grounder, but his goes to Lowell at third who starts the inning-ending double play.
Olson gets his fourth K, again using that down and in breaking-ball to strike Lugo out swinging. Ellsbury is victim number five, going down looking at a fastball just off the outside corner. Boy, does Pedroia swing hard for a little guy. He gets a change-up down in the zone and rockets it out to left. 2-1, Orioles now. Then Ortiz send one out to center. Jones made an attempt at it, but it went just past his glove. That quickly, the game is tied. Garrett gets Manny to ground out to third to end the inning.
Markakis gets a gift double, as Manny can't get to a pop-up down the left-field line.
He is left stranded however.
Payton robs Mike Lowell of extra bases with a sliding grab in left. Youk grounds to Cintron at short, who's throw pulls Millar off the bag at first. That's the second O's error today. Red Sox can't take advantage though. Nice job by Olson to pick up his defense, though usually it works the other way around.
Huff gets a gift double, as Manny can't get to a pop-up down the left-field line. Huh... that sounds familiar. He is left stranded however. I think I see a pattern here.
Melvin flashing some leather, robbing Lugo of a hit with a diving stop and throw to first. Jim Palmer has made some interesting notes about Mora's throwing; that when he has time he thinks about the runner too much and sometimes makes weak throws, but when he dives to get a ball, he doesn't think and makes a strong throw. I've never noticed if that's true, but I will keep an eye on it now. Ellsbury draws his second walk of the day. Then he steals second just ahead of Razor's throw. And then third. That's 26 on the year for Jacoby. Olson is able to get Ortiz to end the inning.
Brian Roberts hits one out to left field to give the O's the 3-2 lead. Nick follows that up with his second double of the day, but this one was no cheapie - he lines it to the left-center gap. Millar draws a four-pitch walk to put a couple on with two outs. Huff works the count full, and then he walks. The bases are loaded for Ramon. With the way he has been going with runners in scoring position, I'm going to assume that he doesn't come through. Yup, he sure doesn't. He strikes out on three pitches. Way to go there Razor.
Lance Cormier is in, so we can close the book on Olson. He had trouble with back-to-back hitters, but was very impressive otherwise - 5 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 5 K. Against a good Boston line-up, that should be a confidence booster. Olson only threw 89 pitches, but I don't think it's horrible call to take him out. Unless Cormier gets bombed - then it's a bad idea. (Actually, with the bullpen being spent yesterday, I would have stretched Olson for another inning - he didn't have a very tough fifth.) After getting Manny, Lance hits Lowell with a pitch. A balk moves him to second, and then a Youk single puts runners on the corners. Varitek singles in front of Payton to tie the score at 3-3. Lugo bloops one into short right-field, but Roberts makes a leaping catch to end the inning.
David Aardsma, the guy listed first alphabetically in baseball history, sets the O's down in order.
Ellsbury is so fast. Instead of just walking and stealing second and third, he just saves some time and hits a triple to right-center. With the infield in, Jacoby can't score on Pedroia's grounder - one out. Jamie Walker will come in to face David Ortiz. Walker is able to retire him on a flyball to left, to Ellsbury comes in to score to give Boston the 4-3 lead. That's it for Jamie, as Chad Bradford will come in to face Manny. First pitch - home run. Manny Ramirez hits his 500th career home run, taking a middle-of-the-plate fastball to deep right-center (and then admiring it for a minute). It's really clear how many Sox fans there are, as there Yard is jumping with excitement. Congratulations to one of the best pure hitters in baseball history, but couldn't he have waited a couple of days? Bradford gets Lowell for the third out, but it's now 5-3 Red Sox. Chad almost never gives up the long-ball, so it's unexpected that he would be the one to surrender the homer.
Youkilis robs Nick of a hit with a nice diving play. Aardsma has another 1-2-3 inning.
Dennis Sarfate relieves Bradford now. He hits Youkilis with a 3-2 pitch. That's what you get for taking a hit away from Markakis. Varitek follows that with a single, with Youk going to third. Sarfate gets Crisp to ground into a double play, but that allows the runner to score to make it 6-3. The control problems continue, as eh walks Lugo. He gets Ellsbury to expand the zone, swinging and missing at a fastball outside for the K. Big hole to come back from tonight guys (though, to tell you the truth, I'm not feeling it).
Now Ramon gets a hit, with none on and two outs. That's all Okajima gives up in the inning, and we head to the ninth.
Pedroia hits a lead-off single, but Sarfate retires the next three batter. In doing so, he may have injured David Ortiz, who had to leave the game in the middle of an at bat after fouling off a fastball. [Ortiz is day-to-day with a wrist sprain.]
Adam Jones strikes out swinging against Jon Papelbon to start the ninth. Luke Scott, hitting for Cintron, singles through an infield shift to give the O's some life. Roberts walks, and Nick Markakis is coming up as the potential tying run. Papelbon throws two pitches way out of the zone to Nick. 2-0 count... oh. Oh man. Nick hits one up the middle, but the shortstop is there to catch it and toss to second to double-up Scott. That's it, game over. A little anti-climactic, I would say.
The O's lose 6-3, and end the month of May with a 26-28 record. It's not bad (and better than could reasonably have been expected) but it's still enough to put them in the cellar of the AL East. Someone really needs to break up this division - it's not fair that 3-4 of the best teams in the league play in it and only one or two can make the playoffs. Trade the Blue Jays for Seattle. If the O's played the M's 19 times a year then that would go a long way to helping them contend. The East keeps the Boston - New York thing, as well as the excitement of the young Rays team. The Blue Jays are in Canada anyway, so who cares what division they play in? (That last part was a joke - I don't want any angry Canadians attacking me with their hockey sticks or lumberjack axes or whatnot.) Read more ...
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