The O's had already won the series against the Nationals, but a sweep would have been nice.
Jeremy Guthrie didn't have his best stuff today, but only gave up one run on a solo home run by Cristian Guzman (it would have been two, but Nick threw a runner out at the plate to end the seventh). That he walked 3 and struck out none isn't a great sign, especially against a less than patient Washington line-up. Chad Bradford didn't have his usual control, walking 2 and giving up a pair of hits and a run. Two runs from the pitching staff is usually great, but it wasn't enough. The offense couldn't get anything going against John Lannan (7.1 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K). He had good movement, threw strikes, and changed speeds. Very impressive start, unfortunately. The O's finally got something going in the eighth, getting a single from Adam Jones and a pinch-hit double by Luke Scott (see, he can hit lefties). Luis Ayala relieved after a rain delay, and a sac fly by Brian Roberts was all they could get.
[Live:]
In the top of the ninth, Jamie Walker came in and pitched OK, keeping the Nats off the board. For (at least) the second time this year, Nick got an assist by forcing out a runner at second on a ball hit to right field.
Markakis leads off the ninth against the current Washington closer, Jon Rauch. Nick goes down swinging at a curve in the dirt. Millar flies one to left, and the O's are down to their final out. Huff bounces one to first, and Aaron Boone can't handle it. Could Jay Payton provide some more heroics? Nope, he pops out to third.
Can't do much when the opposing pitcher is on his game. Lannan just outpitched Guthrie, who was still pretty good. That ends the win-streak, but the O's still take the series before traveling to New York for a three-game set starting Tuesday against the last-place Yankees.
Read more ...
Sunday, May 18, 2008
O's-Nats, Hello Alex Cintron
Brian Burres came back from a run of not-so-great starts to pitch well against the Nats. He didn't look great, but got the job done (6.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 3 K). The bullpen tried to give it up, with Bradford and Sarfate giving up 2 and 1 runs, respectively. It was Jim Johnson coming in with two on a two out in the eighth to try to keep the O's lead (6-4 at the time). His control was shaky, as he walked a batter and hit the next one to drive in a run (on an 0-2 pitch, no less). JJ was able to bear down and strike Austin Kearns out swinging with a great moving fastball at 95 on the inside corner. George Sherrill kept things simple with a 1-2-3 ninth to get his 17th save.
On offense, it was the top of the line-up (Roberts, Mora, Markakis, and Millar each had 2 hits, including a home run and 3 RBI for Nick), more lefty-bashing from Payton (2-run homer), and a great first start from Alex Cintron at short (4-4). The team had more walks (4) than strike-outs (3).
The win - the team's fourth in a row - moved them to 23-19 and 1.5 games back in the East.
Cintron looked pretty good to my eyes at short, showing decent range and an OK srm (stronger than Bynum's, I would say). If he can hit around his career line (278 / 316 / 402) than I think he should he able to keep the job. In any case, I doubt the Pelican will be around for all that long, with Cintron and Bynum on the roster. Read more ...
On offense, it was the top of the line-up (Roberts, Mora, Markakis, and Millar each had 2 hits, including a home run and 3 RBI for Nick), more lefty-bashing from Payton (2-run homer), and a great first start from Alex Cintron at short (4-4). The team had more walks (4) than strike-outs (3).
The win - the team's fourth in a row - moved them to 23-19 and 1.5 games back in the East.
Cintron looked pretty good to my eyes at short, showing decent range and an OK srm (stronger than Bynum's, I would say). If he can hit around his career line (278 / 316 / 402) than I think he should he able to keep the job. In any case, I doubt the Pelican will be around for all that long, with Cintron and Bynum on the roster. Read more ...
Friday, May 16, 2008
O's-Nats, Olson King Of The Hill
It's been a while since I watched an O's game live. Tonight it'll be game one of the Beltway Series - Garrett Olson opposes Shawn Hill.
Felipe Lopez pulls a pitch through the left side for a single; Christian Guzman pulls one into left for a ground-rule double; and Ryan Zimmerman pulls one down the left-field line for a single. Three batters in, and it's 2-0 Nationals. Olson settles down, retiring the next three hitters (including getting Aaron Boone swinging on a very good fastball at the knees).
I've only occasionally seen the Nats play, but from everything I've heard, Zimmerman is an excellent defensive third baseman. He shows it, charging a slow roller off the bat of Melvin Mora and smoothly throwing him out at first. 1-2-3 go the O's in the first.
Jesus Flores lines one right over Olson's head for a single. Next up is Wily Mo Pena - he hits a line-drive too, but Brian Roberts makes a diving catch to retire him. Elijah Dukes swings at the first pitch and grounds into a double play to end the inning. Five pitch inning for Garrett.
Aubrey Huff barely beats out a grounder that Aaron Boone can't initially handle at first, but the umpire calls him out - it was bang-bang. Millar does his thing and works a walk. With two outs, Ramon bloops a single into left. Millar takes too wide of a turn around second though, and gets thrown out to end the inning. More bad baserunning from the O's.
A Zimmerman single off a diving Mora's glove is all the Nats get in the third.
Another deflected ball - this one off of Hill's glove - results in an infield single for Adam Jones. Bynum goes down swinging on a fastball down and away. Brian Roberts gets a pitch down and away, and flicks it over the third baseman for a single. Mora walks to load the bases for Kakes. For some reason the runners were moving on the pitch - no harm, no foul, I guess. Nick protects on a pitch just off the outside corner (thanks for not striking out looking) and grounds it to third. The throw to second gets Mora, but the relay goes past Young at first allowing another run to score. That ties the game at 2-2, and Markakis gets an RBI (since it wasn't a double play).
Another inning starts with a line-drive single - this one off the bat of Boone. Bynum's less than strong arm is on display as he ranges to his right but can't throw out Lastings Milledge (who is admittedly a fast runner). Flores singles to right to load the bases with nobody out. Houdini time. One down, as Wily Mo strikes out on three pitches. Matt Albers is warming in the pen - it seems a bit early for that. Dukes flies deep to left to bring in the Nationals' third run. Lopez lines out to center to end the threat. Not a Houdini, but the damage was kept low. Olson has given up three runs on eight hits, but he hasn't walked a batter and hasn't looked bad at all (not too good either, though).
Now that's the power I was waiting for. Luuuuuuke (too many 'u's?) ties the game with a home run. He got a low and away pitch and launched it into right-center. Adam Jones picks up his second hit of the game with a single to left. Wily Mo dives (probably unnecessarily) to retire Bynum and end the inning.
Melvin ranges far to his right (into foul territory) and throws out Guzman to start the fifth. Nice play. Now it's Bynum going to the outfield grass to field a Zimmerman grounder. The throw pulls Millar off that bag though, and Ryan has his third hit. Young goes down swinging on three pitches. Olson hits Boone with a curveball that broke too far, but makes up for it be spearing a liner off the bat of Millidge.
Nice start to the bottom of the fifth, as Brian triples off the scoreboard in right. Mora lifts a ball to right-center, but neither outfielder makes a play on it and Mora is in there with an RBI double. Markakis goes down looking - it was indeed a strike but he clearly thought it wasn't. Too bad he couldn't move Mora to third. Huff grounds back to Hill, who catches Mora in between second and third. Good job by Melvin to at least get into a rundown long enough to allow Huff to go to second. Millar comes though with the two-out single to bring in Huff. More bad baserunning though, as Kevin gets thrown out trying to go to second. Still, the O's have taken a 5-3 lead.
That's it for Olson, as Albers comes in from the pen. Garrett's final line: 5 IP, 9 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 3 K; only 70 pitches with 51 going for strikes. Not a bad day at all. Albers isn't throwing strikes and walks Flores. He continues not throwing strikes, but Dukes and Lopez help him out by going down swinging. I imagine he'll be back for another inning - hopefully the Nats don't decide to take some pitches.
Matt Chico relieves Hill and retires the Birds in order.
With two outs, Dmitri Young singles into the Bermuda Triangle in short left field. Albers gets Boone swinging for the third out. That's three K's for Matt, in two innings. He and JJ give the O's two very good long-men in the pen.
Another 1-2-3 inning for Chico.
Albers is still in there, and the Nats are still swinging. Millidge grounds to deep short, but again Bynum can't throw his out from the outfield grass. He seems to have OK range, but the arm isn't shortstop quality. Not that too many guys would have gotten Millidge there. That'll be it for Matt - he did a good job. Looks like JJ has become the teams official set-up man, as he is brought in in the eighth. That kind of makes Bradford and/or Walker expendable. Johnson gets Flores looking with a knee-buckler. Another bender gets Pena swinging. Man, has he looked good this year. That's why you don't spend a lot of money on mediocre relievers - get a bunch of fringe starters and castoffs and see what sticks. The list of guys who have struggles as starters but turned into solid relievers is pretty darn long. Oh the movement. A 2-2 fastball at the knees gets Dukes looking, as JJ strikes out the side. Very impressive.
Nick Markakis starts the eighth with a rare double - that's just his 5th of the year. Strange, since he had 43 last year. Huff flies out to center, and Kakes does a nice job tagging and going to third. Millar can't bring him in, as new pitcher Jesus Colome gets him swinging. Jay Payton (in for defense the previous inning for Scott) grounds out on the first pitch to leave Nick stranded. It'll be George Sherrill time in the ninth with the 5-3 lead.
Lopez grounds to Millar, with Sherrill covering first - one out. Guzman pops out to second - two outs. And that's it, as Zimmerman lines one right to Millar at first. That O's are lifting up the bills of their hats, and that mean Sherrill picks up his 16th save of the year. The O's continue their winning ways, taking the first game of the series 5-3. Olson battle through five and gets the win, with Albers and Johnson providing quality work out of the pen. Not that it's really appropriate, but I think I'm gonna watch that Orioles Magic video again. Read more ...
Felipe Lopez pulls a pitch through the left side for a single; Christian Guzman pulls one into left for a ground-rule double; and Ryan Zimmerman pulls one down the left-field line for a single. Three batters in, and it's 2-0 Nationals. Olson settles down, retiring the next three hitters (including getting Aaron Boone swinging on a very good fastball at the knees).
I've only occasionally seen the Nats play, but from everything I've heard, Zimmerman is an excellent defensive third baseman. He shows it, charging a slow roller off the bat of Melvin Mora and smoothly throwing him out at first. 1-2-3 go the O's in the first.
Jesus Flores lines one right over Olson's head for a single. Next up is Wily Mo Pena - he hits a line-drive too, but Brian Roberts makes a diving catch to retire him. Elijah Dukes swings at the first pitch and grounds into a double play to end the inning. Five pitch inning for Garrett.
Aubrey Huff barely beats out a grounder that Aaron Boone can't initially handle at first, but the umpire calls him out - it was bang-bang. Millar does his thing and works a walk. With two outs, Ramon bloops a single into left. Millar takes too wide of a turn around second though, and gets thrown out to end the inning. More bad baserunning from the O's.
A Zimmerman single off a diving Mora's glove is all the Nats get in the third.
Another deflected ball - this one off of Hill's glove - results in an infield single for Adam Jones. Bynum goes down swinging on a fastball down and away. Brian Roberts gets a pitch down and away, and flicks it over the third baseman for a single. Mora walks to load the bases for Kakes. For some reason the runners were moving on the pitch - no harm, no foul, I guess. Nick protects on a pitch just off the outside corner (thanks for not striking out looking) and grounds it to third. The throw to second gets Mora, but the relay goes past Young at first allowing another run to score. That ties the game at 2-2, and Markakis gets an RBI (since it wasn't a double play).
Another inning starts with a line-drive single - this one off the bat of Boone. Bynum's less than strong arm is on display as he ranges to his right but can't throw out Lastings Milledge (who is admittedly a fast runner). Flores singles to right to load the bases with nobody out. Houdini time. One down, as Wily Mo strikes out on three pitches. Matt Albers is warming in the pen - it seems a bit early for that. Dukes flies deep to left to bring in the Nationals' third run. Lopez lines out to center to end the threat. Not a Houdini, but the damage was kept low. Olson has given up three runs on eight hits, but he hasn't walked a batter and hasn't looked bad at all (not too good either, though).
Now that's the power I was waiting for. Luuuuuuke (too many 'u's?) ties the game with a home run. He got a low and away pitch and launched it into right-center. Adam Jones picks up his second hit of the game with a single to left. Wily Mo dives (probably unnecessarily) to retire Bynum and end the inning.
Melvin ranges far to his right (into foul territory) and throws out Guzman to start the fifth. Nice play. Now it's Bynum going to the outfield grass to field a Zimmerman grounder. The throw pulls Millar off that bag though, and Ryan has his third hit. Young goes down swinging on three pitches. Olson hits Boone with a curveball that broke too far, but makes up for it be spearing a liner off the bat of Millidge.
Nice start to the bottom of the fifth, as Brian triples off the scoreboard in right. Mora lifts a ball to right-center, but neither outfielder makes a play on it and Mora is in there with an RBI double. Markakis goes down looking - it was indeed a strike but he clearly thought it wasn't. Too bad he couldn't move Mora to third. Huff grounds back to Hill, who catches Mora in between second and third. Good job by Melvin to at least get into a rundown long enough to allow Huff to go to second. Millar comes though with the two-out single to bring in Huff. More bad baserunning though, as Kevin gets thrown out trying to go to second. Still, the O's have taken a 5-3 lead.
That's it for Olson, as Albers comes in from the pen. Garrett's final line: 5 IP, 9 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 3 K; only 70 pitches with 51 going for strikes. Not a bad day at all. Albers isn't throwing strikes and walks Flores. He continues not throwing strikes, but Dukes and Lopez help him out by going down swinging. I imagine he'll be back for another inning - hopefully the Nats don't decide to take some pitches.
Matt Chico relieves Hill and retires the Birds in order.
With two outs, Dmitri Young singles into the Bermuda Triangle in short left field. Albers gets Boone swinging for the third out. That's three K's for Matt, in two innings. He and JJ give the O's two very good long-men in the pen.
Another 1-2-3 inning for Chico.
Albers is still in there, and the Nats are still swinging. Millidge grounds to deep short, but again Bynum can't throw his out from the outfield grass. He seems to have OK range, but the arm isn't shortstop quality. Not that too many guys would have gotten Millidge there. That'll be it for Matt - he did a good job. Looks like JJ has become the teams official set-up man, as he is brought in in the eighth. That kind of makes Bradford and/or Walker expendable. Johnson gets Flores looking with a knee-buckler. Another bender gets Pena swinging. Man, has he looked good this year. That's why you don't spend a lot of money on mediocre relievers - get a bunch of fringe starters and castoffs and see what sticks. The list of guys who have struggles as starters but turned into solid relievers is pretty darn long. Oh the movement. A 2-2 fastball at the knees gets Dukes looking, as JJ strikes out the side. Very impressive.
Nick Markakis starts the eighth with a rare double - that's just his 5th of the year. Strange, since he had 43 last year. Huff flies out to center, and Kakes does a nice job tagging and going to third. Millar can't bring him in, as new pitcher Jesus Colome gets him swinging. Jay Payton (in for defense the previous inning for Scott) grounds out on the first pitch to leave Nick stranded. It'll be George Sherrill time in the ninth with the 5-3 lead.
Lopez grounds to Millar, with Sherrill covering first - one out. Guzman pops out to second - two outs. And that's it, as Zimmerman lines one right to Millar at first. That O's are lifting up the bills of their hats, and that mean Sherrill picks up his 16th save of the year. The O's continue their winning ways, taking the first game of the series 5-3. Olson battle through five and gets the win, with Albers and Johnson providing quality work out of the pen. Not that it's really appropriate, but I think I'm gonna watch that Orioles Magic video again. Read more ...
Thursday, May 15, 2008
1,000 Pounds Of Pennies
Now that is pretty funny.
I've always been a big Junior Griffey fan. His injuries are one of the more depressing things in baseball for me. Like so many others have wondered; what would he have done if he had stayed healthy? Read more ...
"This outstanding clubhouse prank from none other than the kid they call Junior Griffey.I'm actually a little curious as to why Griffey (career earnings of $139 million) need to borrow money from Fogg ($7 million).
Since he apparently owed Josh Fogg $1,500, Ken Griffey Jr. went about paying him back in the most devious way possible.
Entirely in pennies.
According to the legendary Hal McCoy of the Daily Dayton News, Griffey paid off his debt by having 150,000 pennies — $25 to a box, 60 total cartons — stacked in Fogg's locker like it was a safe deposit box.
Even better, Griffey worked a sponsorship into the whole affair.
From the DDN:
“I’m a man of my word,” said Griffey. “And when you owe a man $1,500, you pay him. And I’d like to thank the lovely people at National City Bank for helping me with this joke. There isn’t a whole lot you can do with pennies. Just think, each box weighs 16 pounds, so the man has 60 bowling balls in his locker.”
There are so many reasons that almost everyone is a fan of Griffey's and you can add the fact he's still having fun as he closes in on 600 homers to that long list. About the only person who might not appreciate this will probably be the guy stuck behind Fogg at Best Buy as the pitcher tries to buy a new flat screen with all those copper Abe Lincolns."
I've always been a big Junior Griffey fan. His injuries are one of the more depressing things in baseball for me. Like so many others have wondered; what would he have done if he had stayed healthy? Read more ...
Eighth More Years For Braunie
Every time something like this happens, it makes me a little more irritated that Nick Markakis is without a long-term contract:
The Milwaukee Brewers have locked up Ryan Braun (who only has about a year of major league experience) to an 8 year deal for $45 million. The Brewers will control the "Hebrew Hammer" for his first two free agency yours (through age 32). If they had a club option or two tacked on to the end of that then it would be even better. Here that Orioles? Eight years. For a guy with little plate discipline who is seen as a defensive liability (currently, but I think he'll end up being a good outfielder) and is two years away from arbitration. This is obviously a great deal for Milwaukee, as Braun should be an MVP candidate as soon as the Brewers start making the playoffs (as stupid as that is). Frankly, I'm amazed that Ryan would agree to sign for less than $6 million a year. For the club (as usual) there is about the same risk as in any type of long-term contract but with a much higher chance of a reward.
I won't compare Braun's deal to a contract for a similar player since he has so little time in the majors. I will, however, point out that Braun was born on the same day as Nick. Ryan posted an EqA of .320 last year, but is down to .279 in 2008. That .279 is Nick's career mark, and he has improved from .268 to .284 to .296 so far. Braun obviously has much more power, but Markakis has already walked more times this year (30) than Braun did all of last year (29). Combine that with Nick being the better defender, and I think that he (Kakes) isn't a much less valuable player (actually, both guys had 22 Win Shares last year, though Braun did play less).
8 years, $45 million for an All-Star outfielder going into the prime of his career? Yes please, I'll take three.
BaseballMusings has a good point about these type of deals:
The Milwaukee Brewers have locked up Ryan Braun (who only has about a year of major league experience) to an 8 year deal for $45 million. The Brewers will control the "Hebrew Hammer" for his first two free agency yours (through age 32). If they had a club option or two tacked on to the end of that then it would be even better. Here that Orioles? Eight years. For a guy with little plate discipline who is seen as a defensive liability (currently, but I think he'll end up being a good outfielder) and is two years away from arbitration. This is obviously a great deal for Milwaukee, as Braun should be an MVP candidate as soon as the Brewers start making the playoffs (as stupid as that is). Frankly, I'm amazed that Ryan would agree to sign for less than $6 million a year. For the club (as usual) there is about the same risk as in any type of long-term contract but with a much higher chance of a reward.
I won't compare Braun's deal to a contract for a similar player since he has so little time in the majors. I will, however, point out that Braun was born on the same day as Nick. Ryan posted an EqA of .320 last year, but is down to .279 in 2008. That .279 is Nick's career mark, and he has improved from .268 to .284 to .296 so far. Braun obviously has much more power, but Markakis has already walked more times this year (30) than Braun did all of last year (29). Combine that with Nick being the better defender, and I think that he (Kakes) isn't a much less valuable player (actually, both guys had 22 Win Shares last year, though Braun did play less).
8 years, $45 million for an All-Star outfielder going into the prime of his career? Yes please, I'll take three.
BaseballMusings has a good point about these type of deals:
"At some point, there won't be any free agents or arbitration eligible players good enough to drive up prices. I starting to wonder if this will change the way the union looks at the current free agent structure. This has a real chance of actually driving down prices. If Ryan Braun is playing for $6 million a year, why should you give a free agent $20 million. Braun's a better player! It's only taken 30 years, but it appears the owners finally figured out how to use the system to their advantage."Well, some owners anyway. Read more ...
Predictions & Projection
We're about at the quarter mark of the season, so I wanted to see how my pre-season predictions were holding up.
Projected Wins (win pct * 162) - My Predicted Wins - Whether the Over/Under call was right
NYY - 79 - 95 - I said Over 93.5; whoops
BOS - 90 - 94 - Under 94.5; correct
TOR - 77 - 83 - Under 85; correct, but I still gave them too much credit
TBR - 93 - 79 - Over 73; The Rays and Yanks have switched places
BAL - 85 - 72 - Over 66; this looks very solid
CLE - 85 - 90 - Under 90.5; correct
DET - 65 - 89 - Under 94.5; super-duper correct
CHW - 79 - 75 - Under 77.5; wrong
MIN - 83 - 74 - Over 73; correct
KCR - 75 - 72 - Under 72.5; wrong, but I said this team could be pretty good
LAA - 93 - 89 - Under 92.5; wrong
OAK - 91 - 77 - Over 73.5; Billy Beane's a pretty smart guy
SEA - 62 - 77 - Under 84.5; I saw a lot of people saying they'd win 94-97 games.
TEX - 77 - 73 - Under 74.5; wrong
NYM - 85 - 93 - Under 93.5; correct
ATL - 83 - 88 - Over 85.5; wrong so far, but they've been unlucky
PHI - 87 - 85 - Under 88.5; correct
FLA - 93 - 73 - Over 68.5; Over indeed
WSH - 67 - 71 - Under 71.5; I still like Manny Acta though
CHC - 97 - 89 - Over 87.5; Second best record in baseball
MIL - 81 - 87 - Over 84; I am pretty disappointed, but injuries happen
CIN - 71 - 77 - Under 78.5; Jay Bruce, anyone?
STL - 93 - 73 - Under 77; shocking really
HOU - 91 - 73 - Under 74.5; pretty shocking too
PIT - 77 - 71 - Over 68.5; correct
ARI - 101 - 86 - Over 87.5; Best record in baseball
LAD - 83 - 86 - Under 87; correct
SDP - 59 - 85 - Under 84; eww
COL - 61 - 83 - Under 83.5; They've fallen far
SFG - 67 - 71 - Under 71.5; correct, but they're still in third
So that's 18 out of 30 for the Over/Unders. I should have just flipped a coin - it would have saved some time. Of the ones I was most confident in, so far I'm right on SEA, BAL, OAK, DET, PHI, and FLA and wrong on STL, MIL, and LAA. 2/3 isn't half bad (I guess it's actually a third bad). For the records, I'm projected to be off by an average of 10 games. That's pretty bad. As standings go, I'm 10/30. Predicting the future is hard. I'll check back at the half-way point to see how things changed. Read more ...
Projected Wins (win pct * 162) - My Predicted Wins - Whether the Over/Under call was right
NYY - 79 - 95 - I said Over 93.5; whoops
BOS - 90 - 94 - Under 94.5; correct
TOR - 77 - 83 - Under 85; correct, but I still gave them too much credit
TBR - 93 - 79 - Over 73; The Rays and Yanks have switched places
BAL - 85 - 72 - Over 66; this looks very solid
CLE - 85 - 90 - Under 90.5; correct
DET - 65 - 89 - Under 94.5; super-duper correct
CHW - 79 - 75 - Under 77.5; wrong
MIN - 83 - 74 - Over 73; correct
KCR - 75 - 72 - Under 72.5; wrong, but I said this team could be pretty good
LAA - 93 - 89 - Under 92.5; wrong
OAK - 91 - 77 - Over 73.5; Billy Beane's a pretty smart guy
SEA - 62 - 77 - Under 84.5; I saw a lot of people saying they'd win 94-97 games.
TEX - 77 - 73 - Under 74.5; wrong
NYM - 85 - 93 - Under 93.5; correct
ATL - 83 - 88 - Over 85.5; wrong so far, but they've been unlucky
PHI - 87 - 85 - Under 88.5; correct
FLA - 93 - 73 - Over 68.5; Over indeed
WSH - 67 - 71 - Under 71.5; I still like Manny Acta though
CHC - 97 - 89 - Over 87.5; Second best record in baseball
MIL - 81 - 87 - Over 84; I am pretty disappointed, but injuries happen
CIN - 71 - 77 - Under 78.5; Jay Bruce, anyone?
STL - 93 - 73 - Under 77; shocking really
HOU - 91 - 73 - Under 74.5; pretty shocking too
PIT - 77 - 71 - Over 68.5; correct
ARI - 101 - 86 - Over 87.5; Best record in baseball
LAD - 83 - 86 - Under 87; correct
SDP - 59 - 85 - Under 84; eww
COL - 61 - 83 - Under 83.5; They've fallen far
SFG - 67 - 71 - Under 71.5; correct, but they're still in third
So that's 18 out of 30 for the Over/Unders. I should have just flipped a coin - it would have saved some time. Of the ones I was most confident in, so far I'm right on SEA, BAL, OAK, DET, PHI, and FLA and wrong on STL, MIL, and LAA. 2/3 isn't half bad (I guess it's actually a third bad). For the records, I'm projected to be off by an average of 10 games. That's pretty bad. As standings go, I'm 10/30. Predicting the future is hard. I'll check back at the half-way point to see how things changed. Read more ...
O's-Red Sox, Dan The Man
Just that quickly, the O's have swept the Red Sox. It was only two games, but it still feels damn good. Daniel Cabrera saw some of the expected regression in his BABIP, giving up 10 hits in 7 innings. He didn't walk a batter however, and only gave up three runs (two on solo homers by Varitek and Lowell). It wasn't a great start by any means (he only struck out 3) but it was a solid one against a great line-up. It looked like it was going to go to waste, as Jon Lester pitched very well for Boston (6 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 K), but the bullpen let them down.
Trailing 3-2 in the bottom of the seventh, the O's were set to face lefty reliever Javier Lopez. Lopez got two quick outs, but Dustin Pedrioa couldn't make a play on a Freddie Bynum grounder to second, and he was on with an infield single. Righty Craig Hansen came in to face Guillermo Quiroz (playing for the hurt Ramon Hernandez) but gave up a single (hey, the O's finally have a decent back-up catcher!) and then walked Brian Roberts to load the bases. This was easily the most important situation in the game - a time when a team would really benefit from having a "relief ace" instead of a closer. Brad Mills (in there for Terry Francona) obviously didn't want to leave Hansen in there, but instead of bringing in his best pitcher (Papelbon) he went to his second best pitcher (Hideki Okajima). The problem with that is; Jay Payton is at a point in his career where he can pretty much only do one thing, and that's hit lefties. He can't hit for average or get on base (against anybody), but bring a lefty in there and he'll hit one hard once in a while. It was a favor to the O's to make this move, and Payton took advantage. His grandslam gave the O's a 6-3 lead which they didn't relinquish (Matt Albers was great in the eighth, setting down the Sox 1-2-3 on seven pitches, and George Sherrill had his usual exciting ninth, giving up a couple hits but no runs).
That makes it back-to-back games in which the team has come back from 3-0 deficits to beat their "division rivals" (I honestly don't think the Red Sox think of themselves as rivals for the O's). Exciting times in Baltimore. They may not be the Rays, but the Orioles have won 5 out of 6 and at 21-19 are in third place (just 2 back of those former Devils) in the AL East. It is still early, but the Birds are 6 games ahead of the Mariners. How many people saw that one coming?
[Edit: I went back and actually watched the game. Daniel looked great, though I would have preferred he throw a few more off-speed pitches. He made two mistakes, and they were both hit over the fence. The other hits he gave up were largely not his fault (a few infield hits and a ball hit past a fielder on a hit-and-run). The number of groundballs he got was great. A lot has been made of his low BABIP - that it was due for a major regression and his ERA would suffer because of it - but Daniel has kept line-drives down so much (13%) that his BABIP isn't far out of line (.240 instead of .250). He is getting a lot of weak contact and so if the walks stay down he should be able to minimize baserunners. I'm just waiting for an up-tick in K's, but if everything else is there that's not such a big deal. In conclusion, Daniel Cabrera is kinda' turning into "The Man".] Read more ...
Trailing 3-2 in the bottom of the seventh, the O's were set to face lefty reliever Javier Lopez. Lopez got two quick outs, but Dustin Pedrioa couldn't make a play on a Freddie Bynum grounder to second, and he was on with an infield single. Righty Craig Hansen came in to face Guillermo Quiroz (playing for the hurt Ramon Hernandez) but gave up a single (hey, the O's finally have a decent back-up catcher!) and then walked Brian Roberts to load the bases. This was easily the most important situation in the game - a time when a team would really benefit from having a "relief ace" instead of a closer. Brad Mills (in there for Terry Francona) obviously didn't want to leave Hansen in there, but instead of bringing in his best pitcher (Papelbon) he went to his second best pitcher (Hideki Okajima). The problem with that is; Jay Payton is at a point in his career where he can pretty much only do one thing, and that's hit lefties. He can't hit for average or get on base (against anybody), but bring a lefty in there and he'll hit one hard once in a while. It was a favor to the O's to make this move, and Payton took advantage. His grandslam gave the O's a 6-3 lead which they didn't relinquish (Matt Albers was great in the eighth, setting down the Sox 1-2-3 on seven pitches, and George Sherrill had his usual exciting ninth, giving up a couple hits but no runs).
That makes it back-to-back games in which the team has come back from 3-0 deficits to beat their "division rivals" (I honestly don't think the Red Sox think of themselves as rivals for the O's). Exciting times in Baltimore. They may not be the Rays, but the Orioles have won 5 out of 6 and at 21-19 are in third place (just 2 back of those former Devils) in the AL East. It is still early, but the Birds are 6 games ahead of the Mariners. How many people saw that one coming?
[Edit: I went back and actually watched the game. Daniel looked great, though I would have preferred he throw a few more off-speed pitches. He made two mistakes, and they were both hit over the fence. The other hits he gave up were largely not his fault (a few infield hits and a ball hit past a fielder on a hit-and-run). The number of groundballs he got was great. A lot has been made of his low BABIP - that it was due for a major regression and his ERA would suffer because of it - but Daniel has kept line-drives down so much (13%) that his BABIP isn't far out of line (.240 instead of .250). He is getting a lot of weak contact and so if the walks stay down he should be able to minimize baserunners. I'm just waiting for an up-tick in K's, but if everything else is there that's not such a big deal. In conclusion, Daniel Cabrera is kinda' turning into "The Man".] Read more ...
Talk About Feeding Off Each Other
I just thought it was worth noting that after the Indians' 2-0 win over the A's, it has been 43.3 innings since a Cleveland starter has given up a run. That's amazing. They've gone through the whole rotation already. I guess with the offense scuffling, the pitchers decided to take it upon themselves to carry the team to the playoffs. So far it's working pretty well. If I'm not doing anything this weekend I may sit down and watch the five games - I do enjoy a good pitching performance. [Edit: Sadly, the streak was snapped by the A's in the second inning, making it 44.3 innings. That is still pretty incredible.]
Read more ...
Another Ray Hanging Around For A While
The Rays have done it again, locking up their ace lefty, Scott Kazmir, to a three-year $28.5 million extension. They also have an $11 million team option for 2012. Kazmir was set to become a free agent after the 2010 season, so the deal buys out one or two years of free agency. I was very surprised that Kazmir would agree to sign for such a low amount - there was talk of him becoming that next $20 million a year pitcher once he hit the market at age 26. Guys this good rarely can be signed as free agents that young.
Just to compare, Johan Santana has been worth about 10 WARP1 the last few years and he's getting $23 million a year from the Mets (that's $2.3 million a WARP1). Kazmir was worth 8.8 WARP1 in 2007, but lets round it down to 8 (it was just 6.2 the previous year, but he has shown improvement every season). That makes him an $18.4 million player. So the three garunteed years end up being about ($18.4 * 60% =) $11 + ($18.4 * 80% =) $14.7 + $18.4 = $44.1 million. That means that Kazmir is giving up about $15.6 million (at least) to get some security. He was injured this year so there is definitely some risk to the Rays, but as I have said before; signing a whole bunch of good young players to "cheap" deals means that it won't be too bad if some of them don't work out - the team is still getting good value overall. Everything I had heard indicated that Kazmir wanted to test the market though, so perhaps he has become more worried about potential arm injuries.
The Rays now have Kazmir, James Shields, and Matt Garza heading their rotation for at least the next three years, with Wade Davis, Jake McGee, and David Price on the way (and those are just the guys with top-of-the-rotation potential!). That is very. very scary. As if it wasn't bad enough when the O's just had the Red Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays to deal with. I picked them to finish under .500 this year (barely) because I found it improbable that their fortunes would swing around so fast. This just goes to show you what a great front office can do. How cool would a Rays-Marlins World Series be? Read more ...
Just to compare, Johan Santana has been worth about 10 WARP1 the last few years and he's getting $23 million a year from the Mets (that's $2.3 million a WARP1). Kazmir was worth 8.8 WARP1 in 2007, but lets round it down to 8 (it was just 6.2 the previous year, but he has shown improvement every season). That makes him an $18.4 million player. So the three garunteed years end up being about ($18.4 * 60% =) $11 + ($18.4 * 80% =) $14.7 + $18.4 = $44.1 million. That means that Kazmir is giving up about $15.6 million (at least) to get some security. He was injured this year so there is definitely some risk to the Rays, but as I have said before; signing a whole bunch of good young players to "cheap" deals means that it won't be too bad if some of them don't work out - the team is still getting good value overall. Everything I had heard indicated that Kazmir wanted to test the market though, so perhaps he has become more worried about potential arm injuries.
The Rays now have Kazmir, James Shields, and Matt Garza heading their rotation for at least the next three years, with Wade Davis, Jake McGee, and David Price on the way (and those are just the guys with top-of-the-rotation potential!). That is very. very scary. As if it wasn't bad enough when the O's just had the Red Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays to deal with. I picked them to finish under .500 this year (barely) because I found it improbable that their fortunes would swing around so fast. This just goes to show you what a great front office can do. How cool would a Rays-Marlins World Series be? Read more ...
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Around The Horn
I believe three days is the longest I've gone without posting something. I'm not really sure why, but I haven't felt much like writing anything. Time to catch up a bit then.
* Let's start off with the O's. The sweep of the Royals didn't come to pass as Brian Bannister shut the offense down - it was the first time the Birds have been kept off the board all year. It was the first time I had actually seen Banny pitch, and I came away unimpressed. I guess that's kind of the point, as he's getting by with his head and not his stuff. I was happy to see him get back on track after having a rough stretch, but I would have preferred if it had happened after the O's left town.
The loss of momentum carried over into the Tuesday game against the Red Sox, but it stopped after the first inning. A couple errors led to a three run first for Boston, but Jeremy Guthrie shut them down after that. He picked up his second win of the year with another good start (6 IP, 8 H, 3 R (2 earned), 1 BB, 7 K). It's nice to see that over the course of the season he's been giving up less home runs and walks, and increasing his strike-outs (5-5-6-6-7 in his last five starts after 2-2-4-2).
He got that win because the O's put up 5 runs on 11 hits against Josh Becket, with Luke Scott going 3-4 with a three-run homer. Glad the power is coming around for him; maybe he can hit another one (or three) out in the second game of the series. Jim Johnson gave up a run, but it was only after he had already pulled a Houdini, coming in to get the team out of a no-out bases loaded situation. Dave Trembley started Sherrill time a little early, going to George in the eighth. To his credit, Sherrill retired the last five guys in order with a couple of K's to get his 14th save of the year. On the bad side, Nick went 0-4 with 2 K's - he's down to .259/.391/.439 on the year, and has struck out twice in three straight games. The lack of doubles or triples (and only 2 HR) in his last ten games is also a concern. He's still a great hitter though, and I expect things to pick up sooner or later.
To (most of) the rest of the majors:
* Congratulation to the Tampa Bay Rays, who moved into possession of first place in the AL East. They have extended their team record by being 7 games above .500 (they set it at 6 up with their previous win) and are in first for the first time this late in the year. If only they were in a different division, the Rays would be a team that I could really get behind. Their greatly improved defense has their ERA down to 3.73 (fourth in the AL) and that's with Scott Kazmir out for a while. If they can raise payroll enough to keep the guys they bring up (like they did with Longoria and Shields) than I think they'll be up there a lot in the coming years. I wonder how they draft when they have to wait till the #25 spot?
* Jason Giambi is hitting just .194, but boy is he making those hits count. His .354 OBP and .469 SLG give him a 127 OPS+; wait till the hits start dropping in. Robinson Cano isn't making anything count, hitting .183/.237/.303; he started out poorly last year too, but not like this. Slumping or injured hitters and ineffective youngsters on the mound are not a recipe for getting to the playoffs. C-M Wang has upped is K rate a good deal and is pitching well (6-1, 2.90 ERA) and Mike Mussina has staved off Father Time for now (5-3, 4.36 ERA), but Philip Hughes (now injured) and Ian Kennedy have ERAs over 8. Mo continues to dominate the ninth though (0.56 ERA, 13/0 K/BB in 16 IP). Wonder how long they'll keep Joba in the pen? He has just 16.3 IP despite a 2.76 ERA - they need to utilize him more.
* The Blue Jays are kind of a mess on offense - they are putting up pretty good overall numbers but are not scoring runs. There is some speculation that the batters are looking to walk instead of trying to drive in runs with men on base. Since it is intelligent people saying this, I'm inclined to think that it may actually be the case. Like I said about Nick, it's great to walk, but with a guy on third and one out I'd like to see him try to hit the ball hard somewhere. At 19-22, the Jays are in fifth in the East, but are easily the best last place team in baseball.
* The AL Central, a supposedly tough division, has been one of the worst in baseball. The Twins, despite losing Johan Santana and sending Fransisco Liriano to the minors, are in first place with a 20-18 record. That's despite Joe Mauer and Delmon Young combining for zero HR. At least Mauer is hitting well otherwise (.331/.414/.421) while Young has been bad all around (.264/.307/.299 - guys who hit in the middle of the line-up really should have a SLG above their OBP). In center, Carlos Gomez runs fast (16 steals) but has just a .304 OBP. Some more minor league seasoning would have been a good idea, I think.
* The Indians, despite climbing up to second place, are seeing some power outages of their own. Victor Martinez hasn't homered (but is hitting .345) and Travis Hafner has just 3 HR and is hitting .223/.322/.354. The average should come up, but the power he showed even two years ago is gone. That contract is going to look mighty bad in the near future - that's why you don't sign big unathletic sluggers to long-term deals after the age of 30. Cliff Lee is still having an insane season (0.67 ERA, 1 HR, 4 BB, 44 K), as is Fausto Carmona (though in a different way). Carmona has a 2.40 ERA despite walking almost twice as many as he has struck out (35 to 18). Good thing he is getting a lot of double play balls.
* The Tigers, despite showing some life in that one good stretch, are still in last place. Their offense has been pretty good (.264/.343/.415) but they are only fifth in runs (182) and are not looking anything like a historically good offensive team. The pitching has been the main problem for the poor start, as Armando Galarraga (who I had never heard of) has been the team's ace (2-1, 3.07 ERA, 21/9 K to BB). The fall of Justin Verlander has been particularly troubling (1-6, 6.43 ERA, 30/21 in 49 IP - I don't know why the K's have dropped off so much for him).
* This (.287/.399/.566) is what made Carlos Quentin such a great prospect a couple of years ago with the D'Backs. Excellent pick-up for the White Sox. Chicago is once again leading the AL in home runs, and Quentin (9) is a big reason why.
* The Angels, despite losing John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar, are still leading the West. They should be getting Lackey back soon (this week, in act) and are likely to win yet another division title this year.
* Unless the A's keep up their fantastic start. They have used great situational hitting to score 187 runs (fourth) despite being 12th in SLG and 10th in average (and just 4th in OBP). Emil Brown still leads the team in RBI (33) but is hitting just .277/.301/.405. That .405 SLG actually places him third amongst Oakland regulars behind Mike Sweeney (.443 - he's making a nice come-back) and Jack Cust (.417 - he actually has a higher OBP with his league leading .434).
* Seattle is awful (15-26) and there may some people losing their jobs soon. The offense has been (predictably) bad, scoring 167 runs (11th) with a league worst .308 OBP. Jeff Clement has not been the answer at DH (.150/.292/.175) and despite his power (4 HR, .510 SLG), Wladimir Balentien is hitting just .224 and has K'ed in over a third of his at bats. The pitching (also predictably), has been good at the front (King Felix - 3.38 ERA and Bedard - up to 3.48 due to a recent shelling), average in the middle (Carlos Silva - 4.33), and bad at the back end (Miguel Batista - 5.58 and Jarrod Washburn - 5.68). The bullpen has regressed from their unsustainably good 2007, and the team is 12th in ERA at 4.45 despite playing in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball. It is very curious to me that a couple of "contenders" (the M's and Blue Jays) haven't sought out the services of Barry Bonds, who despite his "baggage" is still one of the best hitters in baseball.
* It's a good time to be a Florida baseball fan, as the Marlins (like the Rays) are 23-16 and in first place. Florida leads the league in home runs and slugging, with Dan Uggla (12 HR), Mike Jacobs (9), and Hanley Ramirez (9) leading the way. Having Mark Hendrickson as an Opening Day starter was laughable, but he is 5-2 with a 3.91 ERA so far. The Marlins are definitely in line for some regression, but they aren't nearly as bad as many people thought they would (my 73 win prediction, which looked high two months ago, may be looking a bit low right now).
* Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are both good hitters, but only one is showing it right now. Utley is looking for his MVP award with his .325/.406/.669 line (and a league leading 13 HR) while Howard, who has been heating up a bit recently, is still looking bad at .181/.286/.368 with 56 K's. That's still a record breaking pace. Pat "the Bat" is living up to his nick-name (.305/.438/.609) and is in line for a big pay-day after the season. Brad Lidge has whatever he lost back as the closer (0.50 ERA, 19 K's in 18 IP) and the bullpen has been great overall.
* Oh, the Mets. These guys were supposed to win the World Series? Carlos Delgado is nearing the end of a great career (.228/.312/.382 this year, .279/.385/.545 career) and an offense led by Ryan Church (.324/.385/.561) is going to see some struggles (183 runs - 10th in the NL). Johan Santana (3.10 ERA, 52/13 K to BB) and John Maine (2.81, 38/22) are the only bright spots in the rotation. Billy Wagner hasn't given up an earned run as the closer yet - I guess when you do that you can call other guys out all you want. Nelson Figueroa called the Nationals "softball girls" and quickly found himself out of a job. I think it had more to do with the 5.12 ERA than the comments, though.
* The Braves are in fourth at 19-19 despite outscoring thier opponents by over 40 runs. They look like the best team in the division. Brain McCann has got his stroke back after an off year (.303/.372/.568), Yunel Escobar has taken over at SS (.314/.392/.429), Mark Kotsay has shown that he is still a baseball player (.302/.362/.457) and Chipper Jones is cementing his Hall of Fame case and making a run at history (.415!/.475/.683). The starting rotation, which was supposed to be a major weakness, has been kept solid with another great season for Tim Hudson (6-2, 2.54 ERA) and success from their off-season acquisition Jair Jurrjens (4-3, 3.10 - bet Detroit wishes they still had him). John Smoltz was dominant in the rotation (2.00 ERA, 36/8 K to BB in 27 IP) and will bring that to the (mostly) vacant closer's spot when he comes back from his injury. They don't have Leo Mazzone anymore, but their still leading the league in ERA.
* The Cubs are in first place and Geovany Soto is making a great case for the Rookie of the Year award (.315/.421/.575). Six of the eight Cub's regulars have OBP's above .385 - that's a new one in Chicago. They lad the league in the category, as well as runs with 226. The pitchers are third in ERA, and so they've outscored their opponents by over 60 runs. Maybe the Cubs just wanted to wait 100 years to make it more dramatic.
* If the Cardinals don't start losing games pretty soon, than a whole lot of people (me included) are going to look like idiots. Albert Pujols is being given the Barry Bonds treatment (.348/.503!/.600) but some other hitters are picking up the slack. Rick Ankiel has a rocket arm in center field, but has become a solid hitter at the plate as well. He's improved his plate discipline, and is hitting .290/.384/.500 on the year. I imagine Scott Boras will be making some Babe Ruth comparisons when it's time to negotiate his contract. Former Quad-A slugger Ryan Ludwick is getting a chance to play and making the most off it (.336/.410/.701). A rotation of former relievers and castoffs (minus Adam Wainwright) has been very good, as has the bullpen (minus Jason Isringhausen and his 7.02 ERA). I said I would be very surprised if the team won more than 77 games, and well, I am really very surprised.
* I like Lance... a lot. Thanks Chris Berman. Seriously, Berkman is destroying the ball (.392/.470/.790!) and Miguel Tejada has got his energy back (.338/.372/.525). The Astros are third in the league in runs, and would actually stay in contention if they had some starting pitching. They're being led by Shawn Chacon (yeah, that guy) with his 3.53 ERA. I didn't put his record, because in eight starts he has yet to get a decision. Crazy. Roy Oswalt has a 5.05 ERA, but has recovered from some early season struggles and is putting up a 48/15 K to BB ration in 57 IP. The 12 HR is a concern though. Maybe their all-out win-now approach wasn't such a terrible idea after all.
* That vaunted Brewers offense is just 12th in the league in runs. Ryan Braun has found his power stroke recently (.294/.325/.563), but Prince Fielder (.250/.349/.412) and Rickie Weeks (.190/.311/.340) are still struggling. With Chris Capuano and Yovanni Gallardo out for the year, the Brew Crew are a Ben Sheets injury (and given his recent histroy it seems a matter of time) away from having a pretty bad pitching staff. The great Eric Gagne experiment hasn't worked (6.27 ERA), but it was still better than giving Fransisco Cordero $45 million. I guess it's a good thing they picked up Guillermo Mota (2.20 ERA)?
* I hope the Reds end up in last place so we can stop hearing about how Dusty Baker is "a winner". Joey Votto (.288/.358/.568) and (galp) Paul Bako (.303/.367/.515) are raking, but the Reds are still just 11th in runs despite playing in a launching-pad. Cueto-Mania has died down (5.91 ERA), and it's been Edison Volquez having the lights-out year (6-1, 1.12 ERA, 57 K's in 48.3 IP). The offense should pick things up eventually, but I don't see a winning season happening. When's Jay Bruce coming up?
* The Diamondbacks have cooled off a bit, but still have the best record in the majors. The offense is still very good (second in slugging and runs) and so is the pitching. Brandon Webb is 8-0 with a 2.41 ERA; Danny Haren has made a good transition back to the NL (4-2, 3.04 ERA), Micah Owings has become a solid #3 (4-1, 4.33 ERA and hitting .417/.481/.625), and top prospect Max Scherzer is up to solidify the back end of the rotation (3.14 ERA, 18/3 K to walk ratio in 14.3 IP). The bullpen, once again, is doing a good job - Brandon Lyon has taken to the closer's job (2.12 ERA, 10 SV, 12/2 K/BB in 17 IP). They have easily the biggest lead of any first place team (4.5 games).
* It's sad to hear that Rafaul Furcal was put on the DL. Not only was he keeping the Dodgers in contention with his .366/.448/.597 start, but he was really helping out my fantasy team. The Juan Pierre (.277/.352/.319) - Andruw Jones (170 / 282 / 268) tandem isn't doing too well in the outfield (though it's nice to see Pierre walking more), but Andre Ethier (.295/.373/.446) and Matt Kemp (.321/.350/.489) are showing why so many people complained about them being benched or platooned. The pitching has been middle-of-the-road (4.11 ERA) and are waiting on some improvement from Brad Penny (5.09 ERA).
* The Giants are a very bad team, but lucky for them they play in the NL West - there they're in third place. Fred Lewis was finally given the job and is running with it (.298/.370/.489) and Aaron Rowand is earning his contract so far (.325/.391/.520). That's about it - catcher and clean-up hitter Bengie Molina is hitting .272/.301/.424, and shortstop Brian Bocock is "hitting" .143/.258/.156. Matt Cain is making at run at Owings' title of Best Hitting Pitcher with his .294/.368/.706 line. His two home runs places him sixth on the team, ahead of both middle infielders as well as the right fielder. His pitching has also improved, as he has his ERA down to 4.17. Tim Lincecum is starting his run at some Cy Young awards (5-1, 1.61 ERA, 53/18 K/BB in 50.3 IP) and Jonathan Sanchez has been pretty good despite some control problems (2-2, 4.89 ERA, 46/24 in 42.3 IP). Barry Zito is back in the rotation, but is 0-8 with 6.58 ERA, though his last two starts were better (11 IP, 12 R, 5 R, 3 BB, 7 K - yeah, that's better).
* Matt Holliday (.318/.406/.534) and Garrett Atkins (.335/.360/.540) haven't been able to make up for some slumps (like Troy Tulowitzki hitting .152/.226/.238 before getting injured) and the Rockies, despite Coors Field, are just 13th in runs. The rotation, other than Aaron Cook (6-1, 2.26 ERA), has been awful. Jeff Francis has greatly regressed (0-4, 6.27 ERA) as his strike-out rate has fallen and his walks have gone way up. I expected a drop-off for them, but I didn't think they would fall this far.
* San Diego Padres: "Hey, we've got good weather!". Terrible, terrible offense; last in average, last in OBP, last in slugging, last in runs. The pitching hasn't been nearly good enough to make up for it (4.14 ERA - 8th in the NL). Only Adrian Gonzalez as been doing his job (.296/.347/.535 with 9 HR). Read more ...
* Let's start off with the O's. The sweep of the Royals didn't come to pass as Brian Bannister shut the offense down - it was the first time the Birds have been kept off the board all year. It was the first time I had actually seen Banny pitch, and I came away unimpressed. I guess that's kind of the point, as he's getting by with his head and not his stuff. I was happy to see him get back on track after having a rough stretch, but I would have preferred if it had happened after the O's left town.
The loss of momentum carried over into the Tuesday game against the Red Sox, but it stopped after the first inning. A couple errors led to a three run first for Boston, but Jeremy Guthrie shut them down after that. He picked up his second win of the year with another good start (6 IP, 8 H, 3 R (2 earned), 1 BB, 7 K). It's nice to see that over the course of the season he's been giving up less home runs and walks, and increasing his strike-outs (5-5-6-6-7 in his last five starts after 2-2-4-2).
He got that win because the O's put up 5 runs on 11 hits against Josh Becket, with Luke Scott going 3-4 with a three-run homer. Glad the power is coming around for him; maybe he can hit another one (or three) out in the second game of the series. Jim Johnson gave up a run, but it was only after he had already pulled a Houdini, coming in to get the team out of a no-out bases loaded situation. Dave Trembley started Sherrill time a little early, going to George in the eighth. To his credit, Sherrill retired the last five guys in order with a couple of K's to get his 14th save of the year. On the bad side, Nick went 0-4 with 2 K's - he's down to .259/.391/.439 on the year, and has struck out twice in three straight games. The lack of doubles or triples (and only 2 HR) in his last ten games is also a concern. He's still a great hitter though, and I expect things to pick up sooner or later.
To (most of) the rest of the majors:
* Congratulation to the Tampa Bay Rays, who moved into possession of first place in the AL East. They have extended their team record by being 7 games above .500 (they set it at 6 up with their previous win) and are in first for the first time this late in the year. If only they were in a different division, the Rays would be a team that I could really get behind. Their greatly improved defense has their ERA down to 3.73 (fourth in the AL) and that's with Scott Kazmir out for a while. If they can raise payroll enough to keep the guys they bring up (like they did with Longoria and Shields) than I think they'll be up there a lot in the coming years. I wonder how they draft when they have to wait till the #25 spot?
* Jason Giambi is hitting just .194, but boy is he making those hits count. His .354 OBP and .469 SLG give him a 127 OPS+; wait till the hits start dropping in. Robinson Cano isn't making anything count, hitting .183/.237/.303; he started out poorly last year too, but not like this. Slumping or injured hitters and ineffective youngsters on the mound are not a recipe for getting to the playoffs. C-M Wang has upped is K rate a good deal and is pitching well (6-1, 2.90 ERA) and Mike Mussina has staved off Father Time for now (5-3, 4.36 ERA), but Philip Hughes (now injured) and Ian Kennedy have ERAs over 8. Mo continues to dominate the ninth though (0.56 ERA, 13/0 K/BB in 16 IP). Wonder how long they'll keep Joba in the pen? He has just 16.3 IP despite a 2.76 ERA - they need to utilize him more.
* The Blue Jays are kind of a mess on offense - they are putting up pretty good overall numbers but are not scoring runs. There is some speculation that the batters are looking to walk instead of trying to drive in runs with men on base. Since it is intelligent people saying this, I'm inclined to think that it may actually be the case. Like I said about Nick, it's great to walk, but with a guy on third and one out I'd like to see him try to hit the ball hard somewhere. At 19-22, the Jays are in fifth in the East, but are easily the best last place team in baseball.
* The AL Central, a supposedly tough division, has been one of the worst in baseball. The Twins, despite losing Johan Santana and sending Fransisco Liriano to the minors, are in first place with a 20-18 record. That's despite Joe Mauer and Delmon Young combining for zero HR. At least Mauer is hitting well otherwise (.331/.414/.421) while Young has been bad all around (.264/.307/.299 - guys who hit in the middle of the line-up really should have a SLG above their OBP). In center, Carlos Gomez runs fast (16 steals) but has just a .304 OBP. Some more minor league seasoning would have been a good idea, I think.
* The Indians, despite climbing up to second place, are seeing some power outages of their own. Victor Martinez hasn't homered (but is hitting .345) and Travis Hafner has just 3 HR and is hitting .223/.322/.354. The average should come up, but the power he showed even two years ago is gone. That contract is going to look mighty bad in the near future - that's why you don't sign big unathletic sluggers to long-term deals after the age of 30. Cliff Lee is still having an insane season (0.67 ERA, 1 HR, 4 BB, 44 K), as is Fausto Carmona (though in a different way). Carmona has a 2.40 ERA despite walking almost twice as many as he has struck out (35 to 18). Good thing he is getting a lot of double play balls.
* The Tigers, despite showing some life in that one good stretch, are still in last place. Their offense has been pretty good (.264/.343/.415) but they are only fifth in runs (182) and are not looking anything like a historically good offensive team. The pitching has been the main problem for the poor start, as Armando Galarraga (who I had never heard of) has been the team's ace (2-1, 3.07 ERA, 21/9 K to BB). The fall of Justin Verlander has been particularly troubling (1-6, 6.43 ERA, 30/21 in 49 IP - I don't know why the K's have dropped off so much for him).
* This (.287/.399/.566) is what made Carlos Quentin such a great prospect a couple of years ago with the D'Backs. Excellent pick-up for the White Sox. Chicago is once again leading the AL in home runs, and Quentin (9) is a big reason why.
* The Angels, despite losing John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar, are still leading the West. They should be getting Lackey back soon (this week, in act) and are likely to win yet another division title this year.
* Unless the A's keep up their fantastic start. They have used great situational hitting to score 187 runs (fourth) despite being 12th in SLG and 10th in average (and just 4th in OBP). Emil Brown still leads the team in RBI (33) but is hitting just .277/.301/.405. That .405 SLG actually places him third amongst Oakland regulars behind Mike Sweeney (.443 - he's making a nice come-back) and Jack Cust (.417 - he actually has a higher OBP with his league leading .434).
* Seattle is awful (15-26) and there may some people losing their jobs soon. The offense has been (predictably) bad, scoring 167 runs (11th) with a league worst .308 OBP. Jeff Clement has not been the answer at DH (.150/.292/.175) and despite his power (4 HR, .510 SLG), Wladimir Balentien is hitting just .224 and has K'ed in over a third of his at bats. The pitching (also predictably), has been good at the front (King Felix - 3.38 ERA and Bedard - up to 3.48 due to a recent shelling), average in the middle (Carlos Silva - 4.33), and bad at the back end (Miguel Batista - 5.58 and Jarrod Washburn - 5.68). The bullpen has regressed from their unsustainably good 2007, and the team is 12th in ERA at 4.45 despite playing in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball. It is very curious to me that a couple of "contenders" (the M's and Blue Jays) haven't sought out the services of Barry Bonds, who despite his "baggage" is still one of the best hitters in baseball.
* It's a good time to be a Florida baseball fan, as the Marlins (like the Rays) are 23-16 and in first place. Florida leads the league in home runs and slugging, with Dan Uggla (12 HR), Mike Jacobs (9), and Hanley Ramirez (9) leading the way. Having Mark Hendrickson as an Opening Day starter was laughable, but he is 5-2 with a 3.91 ERA so far. The Marlins are definitely in line for some regression, but they aren't nearly as bad as many people thought they would (my 73 win prediction, which looked high two months ago, may be looking a bit low right now).
* Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are both good hitters, but only one is showing it right now. Utley is looking for his MVP award with his .325/.406/.669 line (and a league leading 13 HR) while Howard, who has been heating up a bit recently, is still looking bad at .181/.286/.368 with 56 K's. That's still a record breaking pace. Pat "the Bat" is living up to his nick-name (.305/.438/.609) and is in line for a big pay-day after the season. Brad Lidge has whatever he lost back as the closer (0.50 ERA, 19 K's in 18 IP) and the bullpen has been great overall.
* Oh, the Mets. These guys were supposed to win the World Series? Carlos Delgado is nearing the end of a great career (.228/.312/.382 this year, .279/.385/.545 career) and an offense led by Ryan Church (.324/.385/.561) is going to see some struggles (183 runs - 10th in the NL). Johan Santana (3.10 ERA, 52/13 K to BB) and John Maine (2.81, 38/22) are the only bright spots in the rotation. Billy Wagner hasn't given up an earned run as the closer yet - I guess when you do that you can call other guys out all you want. Nelson Figueroa called the Nationals "softball girls" and quickly found himself out of a job. I think it had more to do with the 5.12 ERA than the comments, though.
* The Braves are in fourth at 19-19 despite outscoring thier opponents by over 40 runs. They look like the best team in the division. Brain McCann has got his stroke back after an off year (.303/.372/.568), Yunel Escobar has taken over at SS (.314/.392/.429), Mark Kotsay has shown that he is still a baseball player (.302/.362/.457) and Chipper Jones is cementing his Hall of Fame case and making a run at history (.415!/.475/.683). The starting rotation, which was supposed to be a major weakness, has been kept solid with another great season for Tim Hudson (6-2, 2.54 ERA) and success from their off-season acquisition Jair Jurrjens (4-3, 3.10 - bet Detroit wishes they still had him). John Smoltz was dominant in the rotation (2.00 ERA, 36/8 K to BB in 27 IP) and will bring that to the (mostly) vacant closer's spot when he comes back from his injury. They don't have Leo Mazzone anymore, but their still leading the league in ERA.
* The Cubs are in first place and Geovany Soto is making a great case for the Rookie of the Year award (.315/.421/.575). Six of the eight Cub's regulars have OBP's above .385 - that's a new one in Chicago. They lad the league in the category, as well as runs with 226. The pitchers are third in ERA, and so they've outscored their opponents by over 60 runs. Maybe the Cubs just wanted to wait 100 years to make it more dramatic.
* If the Cardinals don't start losing games pretty soon, than a whole lot of people (me included) are going to look like idiots. Albert Pujols is being given the Barry Bonds treatment (.348/.503!/.600) but some other hitters are picking up the slack. Rick Ankiel has a rocket arm in center field, but has become a solid hitter at the plate as well. He's improved his plate discipline, and is hitting .290/.384/.500 on the year. I imagine Scott Boras will be making some Babe Ruth comparisons when it's time to negotiate his contract. Former Quad-A slugger Ryan Ludwick is getting a chance to play and making the most off it (.336/.410/.701). A rotation of former relievers and castoffs (minus Adam Wainwright) has been very good, as has the bullpen (minus Jason Isringhausen and his 7.02 ERA). I said I would be very surprised if the team won more than 77 games, and well, I am really very surprised.
* I like Lance... a lot. Thanks Chris Berman. Seriously, Berkman is destroying the ball (.392/.470/.790!) and Miguel Tejada has got his energy back (.338/.372/.525). The Astros are third in the league in runs, and would actually stay in contention if they had some starting pitching. They're being led by Shawn Chacon (yeah, that guy) with his 3.53 ERA. I didn't put his record, because in eight starts he has yet to get a decision. Crazy. Roy Oswalt has a 5.05 ERA, but has recovered from some early season struggles and is putting up a 48/15 K to BB ration in 57 IP. The 12 HR is a concern though. Maybe their all-out win-now approach wasn't such a terrible idea after all.
* That vaunted Brewers offense is just 12th in the league in runs. Ryan Braun has found his power stroke recently (.294/.325/.563), but Prince Fielder (.250/.349/.412) and Rickie Weeks (.190/.311/.340) are still struggling. With Chris Capuano and Yovanni Gallardo out for the year, the Brew Crew are a Ben Sheets injury (and given his recent histroy it seems a matter of time) away from having a pretty bad pitching staff. The great Eric Gagne experiment hasn't worked (6.27 ERA), but it was still better than giving Fransisco Cordero $45 million. I guess it's a good thing they picked up Guillermo Mota (2.20 ERA)?
* I hope the Reds end up in last place so we can stop hearing about how Dusty Baker is "a winner". Joey Votto (.288/.358/.568) and (galp) Paul Bako (.303/.367/.515) are raking, but the Reds are still just 11th in runs despite playing in a launching-pad. Cueto-Mania has died down (5.91 ERA), and it's been Edison Volquez having the lights-out year (6-1, 1.12 ERA, 57 K's in 48.3 IP). The offense should pick things up eventually, but I don't see a winning season happening. When's Jay Bruce coming up?
* The Diamondbacks have cooled off a bit, but still have the best record in the majors. The offense is still very good (second in slugging and runs) and so is the pitching. Brandon Webb is 8-0 with a 2.41 ERA; Danny Haren has made a good transition back to the NL (4-2, 3.04 ERA), Micah Owings has become a solid #3 (4-1, 4.33 ERA and hitting .417/.481/.625), and top prospect Max Scherzer is up to solidify the back end of the rotation (3.14 ERA, 18/3 K to walk ratio in 14.3 IP). The bullpen, once again, is doing a good job - Brandon Lyon has taken to the closer's job (2.12 ERA, 10 SV, 12/2 K/BB in 17 IP). They have easily the biggest lead of any first place team (4.5 games).
* It's sad to hear that Rafaul Furcal was put on the DL. Not only was he keeping the Dodgers in contention with his .366/.448/.597 start, but he was really helping out my fantasy team. The Juan Pierre (.277/.352/.319) - Andruw Jones (170 / 282 / 268) tandem isn't doing too well in the outfield (though it's nice to see Pierre walking more), but Andre Ethier (.295/.373/.446) and Matt Kemp (.321/.350/.489) are showing why so many people complained about them being benched or platooned. The pitching has been middle-of-the-road (4.11 ERA) and are waiting on some improvement from Brad Penny (5.09 ERA).
* The Giants are a very bad team, but lucky for them they play in the NL West - there they're in third place. Fred Lewis was finally given the job and is running with it (.298/.370/.489) and Aaron Rowand is earning his contract so far (.325/.391/.520). That's about it - catcher and clean-up hitter Bengie Molina is hitting .272/.301/.424, and shortstop Brian Bocock is "hitting" .143/.258/.156. Matt Cain is making at run at Owings' title of Best Hitting Pitcher with his .294/.368/.706 line. His two home runs places him sixth on the team, ahead of both middle infielders as well as the right fielder. His pitching has also improved, as he has his ERA down to 4.17. Tim Lincecum is starting his run at some Cy Young awards (5-1, 1.61 ERA, 53/18 K/BB in 50.3 IP) and Jonathan Sanchez has been pretty good despite some control problems (2-2, 4.89 ERA, 46/24 in 42.3 IP). Barry Zito is back in the rotation, but is 0-8 with 6.58 ERA, though his last two starts were better (11 IP, 12 R, 5 R, 3 BB, 7 K - yeah, that's better).
* Matt Holliday (.318/.406/.534) and Garrett Atkins (.335/.360/.540) haven't been able to make up for some slumps (like Troy Tulowitzki hitting .152/.226/.238 before getting injured) and the Rockies, despite Coors Field, are just 13th in runs. The rotation, other than Aaron Cook (6-1, 2.26 ERA), has been awful. Jeff Francis has greatly regressed (0-4, 6.27 ERA) as his strike-out rate has fallen and his walks have gone way up. I expected a drop-off for them, but I didn't think they would fall this far.
* San Diego Padres: "Hey, we've got good weather!". Terrible, terrible offense; last in average, last in OBP, last in slugging, last in runs. The pitching hasn't been nearly good enough to make up for it (4.14 ERA - 8th in the NL). Only Adrian Gonzalez as been doing his job (.296/.347/.535 with 9 HR). Read more ...
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