We're about at the quarter mark of the season, so I wanted to see how my pre-season predictions were holding up.
Projected Wins (win pct * 162) - My Predicted Wins - Whether the Over/Under call was right
NYY - 79 - 95 - I said Over 93.5; whoops
BOS - 90 - 94 - Under 94.5; correct
TOR - 77 - 83 - Under 85; correct, but I still gave them too much credit
TBR - 93 - 79 - Over 73; The Rays and Yanks have switched places
BAL - 85 - 72 - Over 66; this looks very solid
CLE - 85 - 90 - Under 90.5; correct
DET - 65 - 89 - Under 94.5; super-duper correct
CHW - 79 - 75 - Under 77.5; wrong
MIN - 83 - 74 - Over 73; correct
KCR - 75 - 72 - Under 72.5; wrong, but I said this team could be pretty good
LAA - 93 - 89 - Under 92.5; wrong
OAK - 91 - 77 - Over 73.5; Billy Beane's a pretty smart guy
SEA - 62 - 77 - Under 84.5; I saw a lot of people saying they'd win 94-97 games.
TEX - 77 - 73 - Under 74.5; wrong
NYM - 85 - 93 - Under 93.5; correct
ATL - 83 - 88 - Over 85.5; wrong so far, but they've been unlucky
PHI - 87 - 85 - Under 88.5; correct
FLA - 93 - 73 - Over 68.5; Over indeed
WSH - 67 - 71 - Under 71.5; I still like Manny Acta though
CHC - 97 - 89 - Over 87.5; Second best record in baseball
MIL - 81 - 87 - Over 84; I am pretty disappointed, but injuries happen
CIN - 71 - 77 - Under 78.5; Jay Bruce, anyone?
STL - 93 - 73 - Under 77; shocking really
HOU - 91 - 73 - Under 74.5; pretty shocking too
PIT - 77 - 71 - Over 68.5; correct
ARI - 101 - 86 - Over 87.5; Best record in baseball
LAD - 83 - 86 - Under 87; correct
SDP - 59 - 85 - Under 84; eww
COL - 61 - 83 - Under 83.5; They've fallen far
SFG - 67 - 71 - Under 71.5; correct, but they're still in third
So that's 18 out of 30 for the Over/Unders. I should have just flipped a coin - it would have saved some time. Of the ones I was most confident in, so far I'm right on SEA, BAL, OAK, DET, PHI, and FLA and wrong on STL, MIL, and LAA. 2/3 isn't half bad (I guess it's actually a third bad). For the records, I'm projected to be off by an average of 10 games. That's pretty bad. As standings go, I'm 10/30. Predicting the future is hard. I'll check back at the half-way point to see how things changed.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
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