Tuesday, April 8, 2008

It's Only April

Some extrapolations:

The Tigers were expected (by some) to be a 95 win team. They are 0-7. A 95 win team plays .586 ball. If Detroit does that for the rest of the year they'll win 91 games. With as close as the AL Central is supposed to be, those 4 games they lost in April may come back to bite them in September. I thought they were an 89 win team. That's a .550 winning percentage. If they play at that level the rest of the way, they'll win 85 games. That may leave them out of even the Wild Card race. In any case, the number of teams to start out this poorly and go to the playoffs is very small. I think I heard that there was one team like this that has ever won the World Series.

The Orioles, on the other hand, are 6-1. If they are really a 66 win team (.407) then they should win 69 games. If they are a 100 loss team (.383), then they should win 65 games. If, as I thought, they are a 72 win team, then they should win 75 games now (as I was hoping). For them to lose 100 games, they need to play like a 58 win team the rest of the way. That is way worse than could reasonably be expected. Unless I missed one (and I'm pretty sure I didn't) no team has ever started 6-1 and gone on to lose 100 games. Most such teams play poorly from the outset (like the 1-6 Giants).

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